Episode 157 Scott Adams - Cohen, EU Trade, Shadow Banning

but I'm pum pum pum pum pum pum pum pum pum pum up ol Papa Papa Papa hay cranium cracker come on in here I'm gonna read some of your names why are you coming in here we've got ray hey ray and hey Marc hey everybody you know what time it is I think you do or you wouldn't be here you did not randomly show up here today will be a very fun coffee with Scott Adams if I do say so myself hey from upstate New York you happen to be in upstate New York one of the three months of the year that that's a nice place I can say that because I came from upstate New York all right everybody grab your mug your vessel your container your cup you should have some kind of liquid in it your favorite liquid - coffee and it's time for the simultaneous sip now if you've been watching CNN lately as I have been you'll note that there's a mystery that they're reporting about mostly Anderson Cooper and here's the mystery Anderson Cooper after hearing the month the Cohen tapes is trying to figure out why the president might have lied about an extramarital affair I was specifically lying about some payments involved but Anderson Cooper and CNN they seemed genuinely puzzled about why would the president lie about an extramarital affair I don't understand it now that's not the only mystery they're working on there are some other stories coming up and these are other mysteries the CNN is trying to figure the answer is so in addition to why would somebody lie about an extramarital affair there are other episodes coming up are why do hungry people eat we know that hungry people do eat but what are they thinking what is their motivation are they are they is this some kind of Gaslight thing they're hungry and then they just eat I know there's a mystery here we got to figure this out the other one of CNN's working on is why do sleepy people take naps we see them taking naps and we observe their sleepy but we don't know what they're thinking like what are you thinking when you're taking that nap when you're sleepy and also why our next topic CNN's working on is why do dead people never dance we notice that dead people just mostly just lay there but what are they thinking you know why don't they just get up and dance boom boom boom I'm dead I'm dead so these are some of the the big mysteries the CNN's working on why does somebody lie about an extramarital affair I gotta admit I can't think of a reason can you can n it can any of you think of a reason anybody would lie about an extramarital affair I mean what possible motivation would you have for such a thing all right so in our Johnny vs Laurel the world in our world in which there are two movies on one screen sometimes sometimes there are three so the two movies that everybody's watching about the Michael Cohen tapes or did the president say use cash or did the president say don't use cash now the way it's being reported is it's hilarious frankly the fact that that who's the president's lawyer new york mayor whose name i'm forgetting at the moment ex new york mayor giuliani so he's saying the tape very clearly says don't use cash do any of you hear that do any of you hear him say don't use cash is there anybody out here actually hears that anything like that on that recording so what's funny about it is this it's such a bold a ridiculous thing to say but I've been watching this situation and I'm trying to figure out what really is happening here because you can't the the snippets of the conversation don't quite make sense do they so no matter what your interpretation is of what was said or what was not said it still doesn't quite make sense there's something that doesn't all fit I wanted to offer you a third interpretation so the two interpretations we have is that Trump said should we use cash now Lonnie what's his name the lawyer for Cohen says that he's talking about like in actual physical dollar bills if you can imagine $150,000 worth of just cash you know big big pile of cash so Lonnie Davis says well you know that's that's what he means he means cash like a big bundle of money and of course Giuliana you say no he's saying don't use cash which is clearly well I'll leave it to your judgment but I don't hear that when I listen to the tape so I'm going to give you a third interpretation and by the way here's my challenge to you when I give you the third interpretation I want you to see if you can even think the other two are possible anymore all right so I'm going to erase from your mind maybe not all of you but for many of you when you heard that you're the third interpretation you're just gonna say oh why did it take so long for somebody to explain that okay and here it is so we're going to the whiteboard so here are some words we heard on the tape we heard Cohen say we need to finance this company the company that would be used for the payments the payments to the ex Playboy model and you heard Trump say finance what right so when Cohen says finance we we all would agree that Trump had a question about the word finance finance what and then there was a clarification later there was a second word cash and you heard again that there was some question you know Trump said something about cash and then there was some clarification and then there was a point where a Cohen was saying no no no no but there's some ambiguity about what was he saying know about all right let me clear this all up for you if you're Cohen and you say we have to finance this new entity why you mean is we have to fund it in other words put money into it if you were Trump and you hear the word finance what's that mean what does Finance mean to a developer doesn't mean fund yeah it means loan all right so now this would make sense right because Co wouldn't sudden hey we have to fund this entity but he used it an ambiguous word and Trump says finance finance what because to somebody like me I've got a background in in in finance and economics when I hear finance I hear it the same as if somebody is going to buy a car alright if you're going to buy a car they say are you going to finance us meaning get a loan so that was the first point of ambiguity they use the language differently then came the word cash if you go in to buy a car and and they say how do you mean to pay for it are you going to finance it meaning get a loan or are you going to pay cash for your car when the car dealer says do you mean to pay cash does he mean a big pile of dollar bills it does not it is not cash the way a Cohen I believe heard it this is just my hypothesis probably meant currency like dollar bills or at my tea bed it might have been immediate so there's some ambiguity about what Cohen thought about cash but I don't think there's any ambiguity about what Trump thought cash is the opposite of finance so cash is really just write a check all right now what really happened do you remember how it was actually funded I believe the plant or I don't think they did fund it but the plan was going to be that Cohen would put the money in and then he would be reimbursed through you know normal lawyer payments or something like that which would be effectively away the finance payment over time so when you get to the nonono I believe what's happened is something like this right this is just the interpretation and by the way I wouldn't bet my life on this the point of it is to show you how many interpretations you can get out of the same set of facts okay so Cohen says finance Trump says what do you mean by that because he's thinking loan but Cohen is just thinking we need to put money into it then the question of cash comes up Trump asks the question because he's still trying to determine did you mean really finance as in pay overtime or do you just mean we need to put money in which is cash which is also a check it means the same thing in this context and by the time Cohen says no no no what is he talking about he's probably talking about they both got confused with their terms and he wants to make sure that Trump doesn't think he's talking about a big pile of currency he might be just saying no no no I'm not talking about like actual cash I just mean we have to put money in it now having heard this description that these two people a lawyer and a person who gets loans for a living doesn't this seem a little more likely what's going on is that they had some confusion over their use of terms now listen to it again after I've given you this this description and you can hear that they're grappling with what do you mean by the terms what do you mean by the term cash because it has different meanings and what do you mean by finance because these two people see them differently and by the time you get to no no no I think this is the point where a Cohen is realizing or Cohen is realizing that they might be using terms differently and he's just trying to clarify but it's still a little unclear at that point all right so although other people say they heard it that way too right now have you seen this explanation in on CNN or even Fox News I haven't seen it of you at one point I heard somebody saying the White House was saying something about payment over time but I think they M they abandoned that explode now why would it now here's here's the other confirmation and Giuliani said this every once while you hear something that you say oh my god that's right so Lonny Davis has said hey when they're saying cash that's only something that drug dealers or basically criminals do only criminals and drug dealers use cash do you know who else uses cash rich people but they call it writing a check right so when Lonny Davis says only drug dealers use cash he is a huge liar all right so let me just say it as as as clearly as I can so Cohen's lawyer is a gigantic liar and he's lying to you because he's trying to make you think that the word cash as used in that could possibly mean as if either Trump or Cohen were actually talking about a big pallet of currency of dollar bills okay so that's Lottie Davis trying to make you believe something that's ridiculous and he did a pretty good job I have to say as you know as an advocate and a lawyer he's doing a good job but he's totally lying to you in a way that is this is so transparent it's kind of funny so that's my analysis okay cash does not mean hard currency that's what I'm saying it means both things but in this context obviously it meant right to check all right so have we have we totally settled that question and here here's my here's my real question to you have you seen this explanation before because I keep expecting I'm going to see this you know I look at the news and I think Oh somebody's going to do this they're going to they're going to explain what cash means in this context they're going to explain what financed means on this con then it all makes sense somebody's saying I'm contorting myself what I think we should agree that when people tell me that I'm contorting myself that that's a I tell for a cognitive dissonance yeah no but what why did I have to do this and somebody says you're a businessman that is correct so my background is Business School and economics so that's my educational background and then of course I worked in business for a long time and I worked on things like finance deals I literally worked in a department called the finance department so to me this is a little more obvious that it would be if you don't work in that world all right let's talk about a few more things North Korea is set to return remains of 55 fallen servicemen believe they're all men and I have these real weird questions about I guess they're about 5,000 unaccounted for service people from North Korea American service people and I think to myself where are they I'm trying to say this in the most respectful way but does North Korea actually know where they are and if they do know where they are does it mean that they're buried does it mean that they've already you know were they already collected in one place and kept in case they needed to give them back I've got real questions about how is it that when we ask they can produce 55 bodies like from where I don't know how they did that anyway that's more of a curiosity thing you saw that the the representative from the EU did you see the picture of him literally putting a kiss on president Trump's neck and then the president tweeted that out and I saw it on Instagram as well saying how much they loved each other that was just great now of course the two sides of the news the left and the right are going to report that story completely differently the right will will report it you know Fox News types or reported as great progress and that the the bones of a deal the framework of a deal are largely agreed to and now they have to put some meat on it but that's just ordinary business so that it's a it's a big breakthrough and that the tariffs let's say the trade war slash negotiations were successful at least insofar as they you well it looks like they will be and the left will say well they haven't agreed to anything yet so you're gonna see two movies on one screen one saying nothing has really happened the same as they said about North Korea well the right will say my god it's a big breakthrough which it might be but it's a little bit earlier we'll see now here's my prediction imagine if you will the situation we we have been in which is the President of the United States says we're going to put tariffs on everybody from from Canada to China to the EU you name it we're going to tariff tariff tariff and we're going to start a trade war and everybody is on notice we're not going to do any bad dealers anymore all right so that's the situation we were in now in that situation what is the likely arc of how things are going to go from that point so the setup is the president said we're terrifying everybody trade war with everybody from Canada to China all at once what's going to happen well it's very likely because the United States is the biggest buyer the biggest customer that we have we have more leverage we have a strong economy we can withstand some you know some pressure on the economy right now and we have the biggest you know biggest bank so to speak we have the most money so the chances are we were going to get at least one of those entities whether was Canada EU China and you know some country one of them was gonna agree to a deal first so somebody had to go first but nobody goes first until they have to so here was my prediction that for the first X weeks or months or whatever would be nobody would want to go first because nobody wants to be seen as folding they don't want to be seen as the one ah they buckled they buckled you know the the first one already went nobody wants to go first but here's the part I wish I had said earlier but I guess it's still it's still time to say that after the first one makes a deal the pressure on the rest of them to make a deal goes way up why is that because everybody in their own country will say hey the U the EU just made a deal well you know why is my business suffering when the EU just solved their problem why can't my government solve its problem you just did the EU just did so the psychological pressure just went right because the EU just agreed to something and I don't know if anybody is saying it's an unfair deal that they've arranged to I don't know the deal but I don't see anybody saying hey that deal with the EU in the United States the framework of a deal is going to be unfair I don't hear that so what you're seeing is other countries who are going to have pressure internally to also make a deal because the first one did it also makes it safe because everybody can watch the EU and they can say uh-oh what's going to happen to the the leaders of the EU are they going to lose their jobs probably not probably not now why was it easier for the EU to make a deal than China or Canada anybody anybody why was it better for the EU to make a deal than China or Canada see if you know this one why did in retrospect I didn't predict this but in retrospect this was the way it was going to go they're appointed exactly the --use negotiator genic what is his name is not the elected leader of any country you get it that's why this is that's why this worked because he's not the elected leader so if you're the leader of any of the countries in the EU who were part of the deal it wasn't you so so the individual leaders of the EU will not have to say I folded or you know I made a deal or nobody has to lose face because they had this common person who did a deal for a bunch of people but now that the first ones done and in retrospect that was the one that makes the most sense to do first because of that effect yeah that it's not the individual leaders that makes it safe for Canada I'm just using Canada as an example now Canada can say okay the EU made a deal let's make a deal too you know probably there'll be a little give and take on both sides nobody's ever going to know if these deals are good or bad by the way they're all too complicated for we the public and even the press to know if the deal was good so that gives some cover for a candidate to say look I'll make a deal but you know you got to do this on cheese will do this on maple syrup or whatever the hell so it's gonna look complicated Trump will be able to claim that it worked Canada will be able to say we did a good deal for our people because it'll be K it'll be complicated we won't know we'll say oh I know one of them is telling the truth they'll believe I'll believe our leader this time and then probably China will be last my guess is that China would be among the last to make a deal there's no guarantee to any of these things too many variables but the normal course of things would be nobody makes the deal for as long as possible until the first one does and the first one being the EU made perfect sense because you know that's not a single leader of a single country it's just more comfortable politically to do that all right so here's what I expect I expect that the trade will go from oh my god worst thing in the world now that one has made a break it'll be easier for the others to break the other dominoes will fall somebody said dominoes I was literally had the word dominoes written here I was gonna say that next damn it you beat me to dominoes but yes it's the domino theory I have seen this exact theory in a court case that I don't know if I can I can't tell you what it was about but there's somebody I know personally who was involved in a very large you know billion-dollar court case and it was against a number of entities now all of the entities these were big corporations so there were a number of corporations being sued by a smaller entity and all of them of course fought fought fought like crazy nobody was given give an inch until one of them did and the moment that one of them broke ranks all the rest of them got in line because that made it easy for the rest of them to say all right that's the way it's gonna go it's gonna look like this first one let's just get it over with we'll just do what they did all right so it's a domino theory you saw Nikki Haley give a speech to some kind of students I forget who they were in which she said don't try to quote Owen the libs I know that in other words don't try to make you know just don't be dicks basically you know don't be mean to the opposition and it was a real good message got a lot of play you got a lot of attention and remember I told you that I thought CNN has turned some kind of a corner and that CNN it looks like they've made some kind of a decision it could be this is preliminary and I could be completely yeah I could be completely off on this but if feels like CNN has decided to be a kinder gentler version of CNN I don't know that that's true yet but I'm seeing some signs of that a little bit yeah well and we'll see if the summer of love is back on because if you imagine there's a really good chance that trade deals will start looking good the children and the cages will be reunited with their parents and the Russia collusion thing will be more obviously a big nothing and we just saw that Israel did a major strike in Syria that apparently was either coordinated with or for the benefit at least partially for Russia so we're watching the the Russian and Israeli military coordinating in Syria how would you like to be Iran right now and watching is Russia and Israel coordinate militarily now I'm sure they've already been doing that but the more they do it the more it has to be worrisome for Iran so Iran is being further isolated how do you check your summer of wishful thinking well I'm wishing it into existence which is different from normal wishful thinking when I do it it causes it alright now let's talk about shadow bedding yesterday a lot of you know there was an issue on Twitter where if you put in a search for somebody if they were conservatives and prominent conservatives often they would not show up in the drop-down box that auto-populates that affected people like me it affected my Serta for example you know Jim Jordan Matt Gaetz representative Matt gets and President Trump Google are not googled he tweeted this morning about this issue now yeah now what's interesting is when Trump gets his his jaws on something uh he doesn't really let go so I think this issue is gonna have to be dealt with now of course Twitter's response was that I actually appreciated Twitter's response in the sense that what Jack Dorsey responded was that obviously they need to do some work and I thought oh that's very disarming it's actually exactly the right thing to say which is you know they're recognizing the complaint they're not denying it they're recognizing it and then they're saying I guess we need to do more work to gain the public's trust and and so so they're working on that so we'll see if in the next few days if anything changes in terms of the drop down box I think it might have already changed I'm not entirely sure but some people were reporting that mine started to autofill I think the issue was if you follow somebody at auto-filled fine but if you were looking for something you did not follow and they were conservative there was a good chance they wouldn't even show up in the in the autofill thing how do you do some work on expressed censorship you look at your algorithm and make sure that it's not accidentally discriminating it's not easy but that's the basic idea I guess all right so I'm looking at your comments all right I've got another suggestion to make the world a better place and it's called the clarification rule you know the rule where if you drop something on the ground people say Oh five-second rule they pick it up and eat it now of course there's no science to the five-second rule but it does make life better right because people don't want to think oh I dropped something on the floor now it's ruined and I can't eat it so a lot of people will just tell themselves this little story a five-second rule didn't count now science has debunked that it's the 5 seconds has nothing to do with anything but is it a 10-second rule if you're really hungry it's a 10-second rule not a five-second rule somebody says there is science to it but I believe I have seen stories saying there's not but in any case that's not that's not the point here's the rule I suggest for politics if someone says something provocative and maybe there's some ambiguity to it or maybe people think there's no ambiguity to it but it's very provocative and it's very let's say upsetting here's the rule that when you ask them to clarify that you accept the clarification that you report the first thing as something puzzling and you need more information and then you report the clarification as the truth so if you're politician says hey I'd like to kill babies and eat them and then the news says oh my god he says he wants to kill babies and eat them and then you ask did you you know in the subsequent clarification or another interview somebody says we thought we heard you say you wanted to kill babies and eat them can you clarify that and then the politician says oh I didn't mean that I meant I want to take care of babies and and you know feed them the rule should be that's the story the story is what they said with the clarification the story the first story should not be what are they thinking you know let's read their mind let's figure out you know what their dog whistle is all about let's just forget all of that because that's just guessing let's just ask for the clarification and then once it's given that's the news good and then you report ok this politician says this the clarification not the original thing the original thing is just people being confused somebody says has hawk accepted Papa John's CEOs clarification I didn't know a clarification he made I think I think his clarification was he was talking about the word as opposed to using it talking about the N word that he was talking about it and not using it now as you know if you've been in this world more than 10 seconds that doesn't count yeah the the rule is that you just don't use the word now I know what a lot of you say damn it I live in a free country and in my free country I will use any words I walked and I hear you it's a free country but people are also free to treat you differently for the word that you've used now my take on that specifically the N word is that it's one word it's just one word and you do have a very special case going on here right there was only one slavery situation and there's only one word that's sort of the banned word you know is that a big deal are you are you giving up your freedom because you you know that some of you would not ever not all of you can't use that word I'm gonna say that that is such a small thing to ask that I'm happy to give it and I would think I would think that anyone would be happy to be kind and considerate over this one tiny tiny issue and arguing that it's okay to use the word because you're just talking about it instead of using it don't go there j-just just do not go there there's nothing productive there somebody says given in to take a mile that's I'm gonna add thank you I'm gonna add that to my list of bad thinking a slippery slope I'm writing I'm writing something now and I needed examples of bad thinking the reason the slippery slope is bad thinking is because it literally applies to everything there is nothing that you could not apply this slippery slope to hey I'm giving a periscope today it might last 45 minutes oh that's a slippery slope what happens if I start giving periscopes for hours and hours and then I starve to death it could happen as soon as you started giving periscopes it's like Oh first ones 10 minutes then it's 20 minutes what happens if I keep giving them until I stop eating and I die all right slippery slope is not thinking it's just not thinking and so if you think oh I see a slippery slope here I've made a decision based on the slippery slope you have not been engaged in any form of mental cognition of any importance if you give a mouse a cookie that Mouse will want a full cake banning words regardless of context isn't thinking either share dis here's the thinking it's a very very small request by specifically the african-american community who i remind you if you're American especially are on your team that's the important part they're your team members of your team have asked you for a tiny tiny little piece of good manners is that a big deal put it in perspective well there are lots of racial words you shouldn't use I agree somebody says you believe that I don't know what you're talking about but if you would like to ask me what it is that I believe so I think somebody's saying do you believe that if you let them be in one word that they won't go and start banning more words of course they will of course they will will it matter no yeah will somebody try to somebody somebody said of watermelon you know what if they banned watermelon well depending on the context are you using the word it could be offensive that's good coffee should your team forgive you for using the word should is one of those words that are never interesting when people say somebody should do something that's that's either you inside their lazy language or lazy thinking maybe both but there there are things just things that are that if you do this you'll get a good result if you do this you'll get a bad result to say I should be able to do this thing what does that mean the reality is if you do that thing you're gonna get a bad result and nothing will change that your use of the word should is is useless talk it doesn't mean anything I'm gonna give you a tour at the end of the periscopes I like to get provocative it's time to get provocative I'm gonna give you a little psychology test and I want you to all play along all right are you ready it's a little test we're gonna do this in public I don't know how this will turn out by the way but I want you to know I'm gonna ask you to picture a person who is a trump supporter and then a person who is an anti jumper and don't pick a don't pick a famous person so not a politician nobody you know I want you to conjure up in your mind your best picture of a trump supporter you can put this person in any kind of clothing you want but it has to be you know in your mind somebody who's not famous nobody you've ever seen before but a generic Trump supporter and just hold it in your mind for a moment and remember what you're thinking I think you've all got it now you're thinking of a generic Trump supporter give that person you know some appearance some clothing but get a picture now do the same picture a anti-trump ER or it could be a Hillary Clinton supporter but an anti Chomper actually let's make it somebody on the left specifically not not an anti-trump er because that would include people on the right so a somebody's on the left a Democrat now picture them so picture this person's clothing picture there look maybe maybe add a face yeah you might put some accouterments around there you know some glasses or whatever if necessary now picture that person okay does everybody have their two pictures here's my question what was the gender that you imagined for the Trump supporter so that's my first question everybody what gender did you imagine for your Trump supporter give me your gender Trump supporter I'm seeing male male female male male male male female female male male male male male female male male male for both male male male male for both male male male male both female male male male so obviously this is not the kind of test that you would get all the same answer but I think is skewed male now if you're when you imagine the female or I'm sorry leading the witness now did you imagine a female for the Democrat how many of you imagined a female for the Democrat there's a little delay in the comments so it's hard to tell it's hard to tell male for both so a lot of you it's okay so the new answers are coming in so female for both female for both all right so it's a little hard to tell it could be that the Democrat was either way all right so here's the basic test obviously they're all individuals and you were all over the place some had mail for both some and female for both some some had all kinds of combinations do you think it's true that there's sort of a male bias for the Trump side which doesn't mean that only men like it at cetera nothing like that versus a female bias for the the Democrats now part of is the the leadership choices right so the Democrats are very female centric in terms of actual and potential leaders somebody said they anticipated the question so you're ahead of me it was a very non scientific question yeah it feels like it's starting to feel like if you could project into the future it makes you wonder if the and I think there is a male-female difference already right in terms of voting don't most didn't most women vote Democrat and most the majority of men voted Republican not by a gigantic majority that's true right but I'm wondering if that trend will continue and accelerate until you have two parties the male party in the the female party I wonder I wonder if that could be a thing in the future 10 years from now all right that's just speculative yeah there is a male bias in my audience probably I think that's true so we did not learn anything today scientifically I just wanted to try that test and to see how stark the differences were they were not nearly as stark as the hypothesis would have suggested so maybe that's good so maybe that's good no controls in my experiment you're right it is very non-scientific and you should not make any judgments based on it yes and obviously there are tens of millions of female Trump supporters and tens of millions of males supporting the Democrats that is without saying goes without saying all right that's enough for now I think I will talk to you later

but I'm pum pum pum pum pum pum pum pum

pum pum up ol Papa Papa Papa hay cranium

cracker come on in here I'm gonna read

some of your names why are you coming in

here we've got ray hey ray and hey Marc

hey everybody you know what time it is I

think you do or you wouldn't be here you

did not randomly show up here today will

be a very fun coffee with Scott Adams if

I do say so myself hey from upstate New

York

you happen to be in upstate New York one

of the three months of the year that

that's a nice place I can say that

because I came from upstate New York all

right everybody grab your mug your

vessel your container your cup you

should have some kind of liquid in it

your favorite liquid - coffee and it's

time for the simultaneous sip now if

you've been watching CNN lately as I

have been you'll note that there's a

mystery that they're reporting about

mostly Anderson Cooper and here's the

mystery Anderson Cooper after hearing

the month the Cohen tapes is trying to

figure out why the president might have

lied about an extramarital affair I was

specifically lying about some payments

involved but Anderson Cooper and CNN

they seemed genuinely puzzled about why

would the president lie about an

extramarital affair I don't understand

it now that's not the only mystery

they're working on there are some other

stories coming up and these are other

mysteries the CNN is trying to figure

the answer is so in addition to why

would somebody lie about an extramarital

affair there are other episodes coming

up are why do hungry people eat

we know that hungry people do eat but

what are they thinking what is their

motivation are they are they is this

some kind of Gaslight thing they're

hungry and then they just eat I know

there's a mystery here we got to figure

this out the other one of CNN's working

on is why do sleepy people take naps we

see them taking naps and we observe

their sleepy but we don't know what

they're thinking like what are you

thinking when you're taking that nap

when you're sleepy and also why our next

topic CNN's working on is why do dead

people never dance we notice that dead

people just mostly just lay there but

what are they thinking you know why

don't they just get up and dance boom

boom boom I'm dead I'm dead so these are

some of the the big mysteries the CNN's

working on why does somebody lie about

an extramarital affair I gotta admit I

can't think of a reason can you can n it

can any of you think of a reason anybody

would lie about an extramarital affair I

mean what possible motivation would you

have for such a thing all right

so in our Johnny vs Laurel the world in

our world in which there are two movies

on one screen sometimes sometimes there

are three so the two movies that

everybody's watching about the Michael

Cohen tapes or did the president say use

cash or did the president say don't use

cash

now the way it's being reported is it's

hilarious frankly the fact that that

who's the president's lawyer new york

mayor whose name i'm forgetting at the

moment ex new york mayor giuliani so

he's saying the tape very clearly says

don't use cash do any of you hear that

do any of you hear him say don't use

cash is there anybody out here actually

hears that anything like that on that

recording so what's funny about it is

this it's such a bold a ridiculous thing

to say but I've been watching this

situation and I'm trying to figure out

what really is happening here because

you can't the the snippets of the

conversation don't quite make sense do

they so no matter what your

interpretation is of what was said or

what was not said it still doesn't quite

make sense there's something that

doesn't all fit I wanted to offer you a

third interpretation so the two

interpretations we have is that Trump

said should we use cash now Lonnie

what's his name the lawyer for Cohen

says that he's talking about like in

actual physical dollar bills if you can

imagine $150,000 worth of just cash you

know big big pile of cash so Lonnie

Davis says well you know that's that's

what he means he means cash like a big

bundle of money and of course Giuliana

you say no he's saying don't use cash

which is clearly well I'll leave it to

your judgment but I don't hear that

when I listen to the tape so I'm going

to give you a third interpretation and

by the way here's my challenge to you

when I give you the third interpretation

I want you to see if you can even think

the other two are possible anymore all

right

so I'm going to erase from your mind

maybe not all of you but for many of you

when you heard that you're the third

interpretation you're just gonna say oh

why did it take so long for somebody to

explain that okay and here it is so

we're going to the whiteboard so here

are some words we heard on the tape we

heard Cohen say we need to finance this

company the company that would be used

for the payments the payments to the ex

Playboy model and you heard Trump say

finance what right so when Cohen says

finance we we all would agree that Trump

had a question about the word finance

finance what and then there was a

clarification later there was a second

word cash and you heard again that there

was some question you know Trump said

something about cash and then there was

some clarification and then there was a

point where a Cohen was saying no no no

no but there's some ambiguity about what

was he saying know about all right let

me clear this all up for you if you're

Cohen and you say we have to finance

this new entity why you mean is we have

to fund it in other words put money into

it if you were Trump and you hear the

word finance what's that mean what does

Finance mean to a developer doesn't mean

fund yeah it means loan

[Music]

all right so now this would make sense

right because Co wouldn't sudden hey we

have to fund this entity but he used it

an ambiguous word and Trump says finance

finance what because to somebody like me

I've got a background in in in finance

and economics when I hear finance I hear

it the same as if somebody is going to

buy a car

alright if you're going to buy a car

they say are you going to finance us

meaning get a loan so that was the first

point of ambiguity they use the language

differently then came the word cash if

you go in to buy a car and and they say

how do you mean to pay for it are you

going to finance it meaning get a loan

or are you going to pay cash for your

car when the car dealer says do you mean

to pay cash does he mean a big pile of

dollar bills it does not it is not cash

the way a Cohen I believe heard it this

is just my hypothesis probably meant

currency like dollar bills or at my tea

bed it might have been immediate so

there's some ambiguity about what Cohen

thought about cash but I don't think

there's any ambiguity about what Trump

thought cash is the opposite of finance

so cash is really just write a check all

right now what really happened do you

remember how it was actually funded I

believe the plant or I don't think they

did fund it but the plan was going to be

that Cohen would put the money in and

then he would be reimbursed through you

know normal lawyer payments or something

like that which would be effectively

away the finance payment over time so

when you get to the nonono I believe

what's happened is something like this

right this is just the

interpretation and by the way I wouldn't

bet my life on this

the point of it is to show you how many

interpretations you can get out of the

same set of facts

okay so Cohen says finance Trump says

what do you mean by that because he's

thinking loan but Cohen is just thinking

we need to put money into it then the

question of cash comes up Trump asks the

question because he's still trying to

determine did you mean really finance as

in pay overtime or do you just mean we

need to put money in which is cash which

is also a check it means the same thing

in this context and by the time Cohen

says no no no what is he talking about

he's probably talking about they both

got confused with their terms and he

wants to make sure that Trump doesn't

think he's talking about a big pile of

currency he might be just saying no no

no I'm not talking about like actual

cash I just mean we have to put money in

it now having heard this description

that these two people a lawyer and a

person who gets loans for a living

doesn't this seem a little more likely

what's going on is that they had some

confusion over their use of terms now

listen to it again after I've given you

this this description and you can hear

that they're grappling with what do you

mean by the terms what do you mean by

the term cash because it has different

meanings and what do you mean by finance

because these two people see them

differently and by the time you get to

no no no I think this is the point where

a Cohen is realizing or Cohen is

realizing that they might be using terms

differently and he's just trying to

clarify but it's still a little unclear

at that point all right so although

other people say they heard it that way

too right now have you seen this

explanation in on CNN or even Fox News I

haven't seen it of you at one point I

heard somebody saying the White House

was saying something about payment over

time but I think they M they abandoned

that explode

now why would it now here's here's the

other confirmation and Giuliani said

this every once while you hear something

that you say oh my god that's right

so Lonny Davis has said hey when they're

saying cash that's only something that

drug dealers or basically criminals do

only criminals and drug dealers use cash

do you know who else uses cash rich

people but they call it writing a check

right so when Lonny Davis says only drug

dealers use cash he is a huge liar all

right so let me just say it as as as

clearly as I can

so Cohen's lawyer is a gigantic liar and

he's lying to you because he's trying to

make you think that the word cash as

used in that could possibly mean as if

either Trump or Cohen were actually

talking about a big pallet of currency

of dollar bills okay so that's Lottie

Davis trying to make you believe

something that's ridiculous and he did a

pretty good job I have to say as you

know as an advocate and a lawyer he's

doing a good job but he's totally lying

to you in a way that is this is so

transparent it's kind of funny so that's

my analysis okay cash does not mean hard

currency that's what I'm saying

it means both things but in this context

obviously it meant right to check all

right so have we have we totally settled

that question and here here's my here's

my real question to you have you seen

this explanation before because I keep

expecting I'm going to see this you know

I look at the news and I think Oh

somebody's going to do this they're

going to they're going to explain what

cash means in this context they're going

to explain what financed means on this

con

then it all makes sense somebody's

saying I'm contorting myself what I

think we should agree that when people

tell me that I'm contorting myself that

that's a I tell for a cognitive

dissonance yeah no but what why did I

have to do this and somebody says you're

a businessman that is correct so my

background is Business School and

economics so that's my educational

background and then of course I worked

in business for a long time and I worked

on things like finance deals I literally

worked in a department called the

finance department so to me this is a

little more obvious that it would be if

you don't work in that world all right

let's talk about a few more things North

Korea is set to return remains of 55

fallen servicemen believe they're all

men and I have these real weird

questions about I guess they're about

5,000 unaccounted for service people

from North Korea American service people

and I think to myself where are they I'm

trying to say this in the most

respectful way but does North Korea

actually know where they are and if they

do know where they are

does it mean that they're buried does it

mean that they've already you know were

they already collected in one place and

kept in case they needed to give them

back I've got real questions about how

is it that when we ask they can produce

55 bodies like from where I don't know

how they did that anyway that's more of

a curiosity thing you saw that the the

representative from the EU did you see

the picture of him literally putting a

kiss on president Trump's neck and then

the president tweeted that out and I saw

it on Instagram as well saying how much

they loved each other

that was just great now of course the

two sides of the news the left and the

right are going to report that story

completely differently the right will

will report it you know Fox News types

or reported as great progress and that

the the bones of a deal the framework of

a deal are largely agreed to and now

they have to put some meat on it but

that's just ordinary business so that

it's a it's a big breakthrough and that

the tariffs let's say the trade war

slash negotiations were successful at

least insofar as they you well it looks

like they will be and the left will say

well they haven't agreed to anything yet

so you're gonna see two movies on one

screen one saying nothing has really

happened the same as they said about

North Korea well the right will say my

god it's a big breakthrough which it

might be but it's a little bit earlier

we'll see now here's my prediction

imagine if you will the situation we we

have been in which is the President of

the United States says we're going to

put tariffs on everybody from from

Canada to China to the EU you name it

we're going to tariff tariff tariff and

we're going to start a trade war and

everybody is on notice we're not going

to do any bad dealers anymore all right

so that's the situation we were in now

in that situation what is the likely arc

of how things are going to go from that

point so the setup is the president said

we're terrifying everybody trade war

with everybody from Canada to China all

at once

what's going to happen well it's very

likely because the United States is the

biggest buyer the biggest customer that

we have we have more leverage we have a

strong economy we can withstand some you

know some

pressure on the economy right now and we

have the biggest you know biggest bank

so to speak we have the most money so

the chances are we were going to get at

least one of those entities whether was

Canada EU China and you know some

country one of them was gonna agree to a

deal first so somebody had to go first

but nobody goes first until they have to

so here was my prediction that for the

first X weeks or months or whatever

would be nobody would want to go first

because nobody wants to be seen as

folding they don't want to be seen as

the one ah they buckled they buckled you

know the the first one already went

nobody wants to go first

but here's the part I wish I had said

earlier but I guess it's still it's

still time to say that after the first

one makes a deal the pressure on the

rest of them to make a deal goes way up

why is that because everybody in their

own country will say hey the U the EU

just made a deal well you know why is my

business suffering when the EU just

solved their problem why can't my

government solve its problem you just

did the EU just did so the psychological

pressure just went right

because the EU just agreed to something

and I don't know if anybody is saying

it's an unfair deal that they've

arranged to I don't know the deal but I

don't see anybody saying hey that deal

with the EU in the United States the

framework of a deal is going to be

unfair I don't hear that so what you're

seeing is other countries who are going

to have pressure internally to also make

a deal because the first one did it also

makes it safe because everybody can

watch the EU and they can say uh-oh

what's going to happen to the the

leaders of the EU are they going to lose

their jobs

probably not

probably not now why was it easier for

the EU to make a deal than China or

Canada anybody anybody why was it better

for the EU to make a deal than China or

Canada see if you know this one

why did in retrospect I didn't predict

this but in retrospect this was the way

it was going to go they're appointed

exactly the --use negotiator genic what

is his name is not the elected leader of

any country you get it that's why this

is that's why this worked because he's

not the elected leader so if you're the

leader of any of the countries in the EU

who were part of the deal it wasn't you

so so the individual leaders of the EU

will not have to say I folded or you

know I made a deal or nobody has to lose

face because they had this common person

who did a deal for a bunch of people but

now that the first ones done and in

retrospect that was the one that makes

the most sense to do first because of

that effect yeah that it's not the

individual leaders that makes it safe

for Canada I'm just using Canada as an

example now Canada can say okay the EU

made a deal let's make a deal too you

know probably there'll be a little give

and take on both sides nobody's ever

going to know if these deals are good or

bad by the way they're all too

complicated for we the public and even

the press to know if the deal was good

so that gives some cover for a candidate

to say look I'll make a deal but you

know you got to do this on cheese will

do this on maple syrup or whatever the

hell so it's gonna look complicated

Trump will be able to claim that it

worked

Canada will be able to say we did a good

deal for our people because it'll be K

it'll be complicated we won't know we'll

say oh I know one of them is telling the

truth they'll believe I'll believe our

leader this time and then probably China

will be last

my guess is that

China would be among the last to make a

deal there's no guarantee to any of

these things too many variables but the

normal course of things would be nobody

makes the deal for as long as possible

until the first one does and the first

one being the EU made perfect sense

because you know that's not a single

leader of a single country it's just

more comfortable politically to do that

all right so here's what I expect

I expect that the trade will go from oh

my god worst thing in the world now that

one has made a break it'll be easier for

the others to break the other dominoes

will fall

somebody said dominoes I was literally

had the word dominoes written here I was

gonna say that next damn it you beat me

to dominoes but yes it's the domino

theory I have seen this exact theory in

a court case that I don't know if I can

I can't tell you what it was about but

there's somebody I know personally who

was involved in a very large you know

billion-dollar court case and it was

against a number of entities now all of

the entities these were big corporations

so there were a number of corporations

being sued by a smaller entity and all

of them of course fought fought fought

like crazy

nobody was given give an inch until one

of them did and the moment that one of

them broke ranks all the rest of them

got in line because that made it easy

for the rest of them to say all right

that's the way it's gonna go it's gonna

look like this first one let's just get

it over with we'll just do what they did

all right so it's a domino theory you

saw Nikki Haley give a speech to some

kind of students I forget who they were

in which she said don't try to quote

Owen the libs I know that in other words

don't try to make you know just don't be

dicks basically you know don't be mean

to the opposition and it was a real good

message got a lot of play you got a lot

of attention and remember I told you

that I thought CNN has

turned some kind of a corner and that

CNN it looks like they've made some kind

of a decision it could be this is

preliminary and I could be completely

yeah I could be completely off on this

but if feels like CNN has decided to be

a kinder gentler version of CNN I don't

know that that's true yet but I'm seeing

some signs of that a little bit yeah

well and we'll see if the summer of love

is back on because if you imagine

there's a really good chance that trade

deals will start looking good the

children and the cages will be reunited

with their parents and the Russia

collusion thing will be more obviously a

big nothing and we just saw that Israel

did a major strike in Syria that

apparently was either coordinated with

or for the benefit at least partially

for Russia so we're watching the the

Russian and Israeli military

coordinating in Syria how would you like

to be Iran right now and watching is

Russia and Israel coordinate militarily

now I'm sure they've already been doing

that but the more they do it the more it

has to be worrisome for Iran so Iran is

being further isolated how do you check

your summer of wishful thinking well I'm

wishing it into existence which is

different from normal wishful thinking

when I do it it causes it alright now

let's talk about shadow bedding

yesterday a lot of you know there was an

issue on Twitter where if you put in a

search for somebody if they were

conservatives and prominent

conservatives often they would not show

up in the drop-down box that

auto-populates

that affected people like me it affected

my Serta for example you know Jim

Jordan

Matt Gaetz representative Matt gets and

President Trump

Google are not googled he tweeted this

morning about this issue now yeah now

what's interesting is when Trump gets

his his jaws on something uh he doesn't

really let go so I think this issue is

gonna have to be dealt with now of

course Twitter's response was that I

actually appreciated Twitter's response

in the sense that what Jack Dorsey

responded was that obviously they need

to do some work and I thought oh that's

very disarming it's actually exactly the

right thing to say which is you know

they're recognizing the complaint

they're not denying it they're

recognizing it and then they're saying I

guess we need to do more work to gain

the public's trust and and so so they're

working on that so we'll see if in the

next few days if anything changes in

terms of the drop down box I think it

might have already changed I'm not

entirely sure but some people were

reporting that mine started to autofill

I think the issue was if you follow

somebody at auto-filled fine but if you

were looking for something you did not

follow and they were conservative there

was a good chance they wouldn't even

show up in the in the autofill thing

how do you do some work on expressed

censorship you look at your algorithm

and make sure that it's not accidentally

discriminating it's not easy but that's

the basic idea I guess all right so I'm

looking at your comments all right I've

got another suggestion to make the world

a better place and it's called

the clarification rule you know the rule

where if you drop something on the

ground people say Oh

five-second rule they pick it up and eat

it now of course there's no science to

the five-second rule but it does make

life better right because people don't

want to think oh I dropped something on

the floor now it's ruined and I can't

eat it so a lot of people will just tell

themselves this little story a

five-second rule didn't count now

science has debunked that it's the 5

seconds has nothing to do with anything

but is it a 10-second rule if you're

really hungry it's a 10-second rule not

a five-second rule somebody says there

is science to it but I believe I have

seen stories saying there's not but in

any case that's not that's not the point

here's the rule I suggest for politics

if someone says something provocative

and maybe there's some ambiguity to it

or maybe people think there's no

ambiguity to it but it's very

provocative and it's very let's say

upsetting here's the rule that when you

ask them to clarify that you accept the

clarification that you report the first

thing as something puzzling and you need

more information and then you report the

clarification as the truth so if you're

politician says hey I'd like to kill

babies and eat them and then the news

says oh my god he says he wants to kill

babies and eat them and then you ask

did you you know in the subsequent

clarification or another interview

somebody says we thought we heard you

say you wanted to kill babies and eat

them can you clarify that and then the

politician says oh I didn't mean that I

meant I want to take care of babies and

and you know feed them the rule should

be that's the story the story is what

they said with the clarification the

story the first story should not be what

are they thinking you know let's read

their mind let's figure out you know

what their dog whistle is all about

let's just forget all of that

because that's just guessing let's just

ask for the clarification and then once

it's given that's the news good and then

you report ok this politician says this

the clarification not the original thing

the original thing is just people being

confused

somebody says has hawk accepted Papa

John's CEOs clarification I didn't know

a clarification he made I think I think

his clarification was he was talking

about the word as opposed to using it

talking about the N word that he was

talking about it and not using it now as

you know if you've been in this world

more than 10 seconds that doesn't count

yeah the the rule is that you just don't

use the word now I know what a lot of

you say damn it I live in a free country

and in my free country I will use any

words I walked and I hear you it's a

free country but people are also free to

treat you differently for the word that

you've used now my take on that

specifically the N word is that it's one

word it's just one word and you do have

a very special case going on here right

there was only one slavery situation and

there's only one word that's sort of the

banned word you know is that a big deal

are you are you giving up your freedom

because

you you know that some of you would not

ever not all of you can't use that word

I'm gonna say that that is such a small

thing to ask that I'm happy to give it

and I would think I would think that

anyone would be happy to be kind and

considerate over this one tiny tiny

issue and arguing that it's okay to use

the word because you're just talking

about it instead of using it don't go

there

j-just just do not go there there's

nothing productive there somebody says

given in to take a mile that's I'm gonna

add thank you I'm gonna add that to my

list of bad thinking a slippery slope

I'm writing I'm writing something now

and I needed examples of bad thinking

the reason the slippery slope is bad

thinking is because it literally applies

to everything there is nothing that you

could not apply this slippery slope to

hey I'm giving a periscope today it

might last 45 minutes oh that's a

slippery slope what happens if I start

giving periscopes for hours and hours

and then I starve to death

it could happen as soon as you started

giving periscopes it's like Oh first

ones 10 minutes then it's 20 minutes

what happens if I keep giving them until

I stop eating and I die all right

slippery slope is not thinking it's just

not thinking and so if you think oh I

see a slippery slope here I've made a

decision based on the slippery slope you

have not been engaged in any form of

mental cognition of any importance

if you give a mouse a cookie that Mouse

will want a full cake banning words

regardless of context isn't thinking

either share dis here's the thinking

it's a very very small request by

specifically the african-american

community who i remind you if you're

American especially are on your team

that's the important part they're your

team members of your team have asked you

for a tiny tiny little piece of good

manners is that a big deal put it in

perspective well there are lots of

racial words you shouldn't use I agree

somebody says you believe that I don't

know what you're talking about but if

you would like to ask me what it is that

I believe so I think somebody's saying

do you believe that if you let them be

in one word that they won't go and start

banning more words of course they will

of course they will will it matter

no yeah will somebody try to somebody

somebody said of watermelon you know

what if they banned watermelon well

depending on the context are you using

the word it could be offensive

that's good coffee

should your team forgive you for using

the word should is one of those words

that are never interesting when people

say somebody should do something that's

that's either you inside their lazy

language or lazy thinking maybe both but

there there are things just things that

are that if you do this you'll get a

good result if you do this you'll get a

bad result to say I should be able to do

this thing what does that mean the

reality is if you do that thing you're

gonna get a bad result and nothing will

change that your use of the word should

is is useless talk it doesn't mean

anything

I'm gonna give you a tour at the end of

the periscopes I like to get provocative

it's time to get provocative I'm gonna

give you a little psychology test and I

want you to all play along all right are

you ready it's a little test

we're gonna do this in public I don't

know how this will turn out by the way

but I want you to know I'm gonna ask you

to picture a person who is a trump

supporter and then a person who is an

anti jumper and don't pick a don't pick

a famous person so not a politician

nobody you know I want you to conjure up

in your mind your best picture of a

trump supporter you can put this person

in any kind of clothing you want but it

has to be you know in your mind somebody

who's not famous nobody you've ever seen

before but a generic Trump supporter and

just hold it in your mind for a moment

and remember what you're thinking I

think you've all got it now you're

thinking of a generic Trump supporter

give that person you know some

appearance some clothing but get a

picture now do the same picture a

anti-trump ER or it could be a Hillary

Clinton supporter but an anti Chomper

actually let's make it somebody on the

left specifically not not an anti-trump

er because that would include people on

the right so a somebody's on the left a

Democrat now picture them so picture

this person's clothing picture there

look maybe maybe add a face yeah you

might put some accouterments around

there you know some glasses or whatever

if necessary now picture that person

okay does everybody have their two

pictures here's my question

what was the gender that you imagined

for the Trump supporter so that's my

first question everybody what gender did

you imagine for your Trump supporter

give me your gender Trump supporter I'm

seeing male male female male male male

male female female male male male male

male female male male male for both male

male male male for both male male male

male both female male male male so

obviously this is not the kind of test

that you would get all the same answer

but I think is skewed male now if you're

when you imagine the female or I'm sorry

leading the witness

now did you imagine a female for the

Democrat how many of you imagined a

female for the Democrat there's a little

delay in the comments so it's hard to

tell it's hard to tell

male for both so a lot of you it's okay

so the new answers are coming in so

female for both female for both all

right so it's a little hard to tell it

could be that the Democrat was either

way

all right so here's the basic test

obviously they're all individuals and

you were all over the place some had

mail for both some and female for both

some some had all kinds of combinations

do you think it's true that there's sort

of a male bias for the Trump side which

doesn't mean that only men like it at

cetera nothing like that versus a female

bias for the the Democrats now part of

is the the leadership choices right so

the Democrats are very female centric in

terms of actual and potential leaders

somebody said they anticipated the

question so you're ahead of me it was a

very non scientific question yeah it

feels like it's starting to feel like if

you could project into the future it

makes you wonder if the and I think

there is a male-female difference

already right in terms of voting don't

most didn't most women vote Democrat and

most the majority of men voted

Republican not by a gigantic majority

that's true right but I'm wondering if

that trend will continue and accelerate

until you have two parties the male

party in the the female party I wonder I

wonder if that could be a thing in the

future 10 years from now all right

that's just speculative yeah there is a

male bias in my audience probably I

think that's true so we did not learn

anything today scientifically I just

wanted to try that test and to see how

stark the differences were they were not

nearly as stark as the hypothesis would

have suggested so maybe that's good so

maybe that's good no controls in my

experiment you're right it is very

non-scientific and you should not make

any judgments based on it

yes and obviously there are tens of

millions of female Trump supporters and

tens of millions of males supporting the

Democrats that is without saying goes

without saying all right that's enough

for now

I think I will talk to you later