d we blame it on Russia. I didn't say that. Just ignore that last sentence. Didn't happen. Go on with your business. Nothing to see here. So it could be something like that. It could be completely different. But one thing that it might be is violent. In other words the protesters are doing this giant test run to see if you can flood the streets with people and make a difference. And apparently it does. It works. They're willing to burn down the whole country.

So Trump will be in an interesting situation, which is if he has to use force to stop a coup which won't look like a coup and will just look like demonstrators calling him a racist. That will be interesting. But I think that's where we're heading.

So in all likelihood, my current estimates are a hundred percent chance that Trump will be re-elected unless something big changes between now and Election Day. Will something big change between now and Election Day? Of course it will. Are you kidding me? Something big will change next week and the week after and the week after. So these kinds of predictions are kind of useless because they're straight line predictions in a world that we can't know a straight line. The world doesn't even know how to go in a straight line.

And then I predicted that if Trump is elected there's a 50% chance that the coup will succeed. I think there was a 50% chance that the Russia collusion thing or the Ukrainian thing or some other thing could have succeeded. I think there was a good 50% chance. It just didn't go their way.

All right, one of the funniest stories is Carpe Donktum did a meme video showing some footage of a toddler. I think they might have been three years old. I can't tell the ages of little kids. But they're sort of barely can walk kind of toddlers. One was white, one was black, and they were best friends and they were hugging on the sidewalk and then they happily go running down the street.

Now what Carpe Donktum did, which was brilliant, is he showed that in reverse order with the clips, without the part where the kids are obviously best friends hugging each other and loving each other. Instead shows them running down the street. But because the little black toddler had started first, it could be interpreted as if the little white toddler is chasing the black one. See, if you didn't see them hugging just before that.

Now the funny part is that Carpe Donktum adds a fake chyron, you know the words at the bottom of the screen, to make it look like it's a CNN report. And the chyron says, you know, white racist baby chases black baby or something like that.

And here's the funny part. I've told you this before. The perfect prank is one that only the victim of the prank can't tell it's a prank. That's what makes a joke really good. It's one thing just to mock people and here's a funny picture. That's sort of one dimension. But if you can come up with the perfect prank where only the subject of the prank can't tell it's a prank, and the reason is they can't tell parody from reality. And if you can find somebody who literally can't tell the difference between reality and parody, then you do a prank that's a parody and they just can't tell. But everybody else can tell because they're not hypnotized in the same way.

So when I watched it, I honestly couldn't even imagine how anybody would think this was true. It's so obviously not true that it just registers as a joke and I laughed at it. I would guarantee that close to a hundred percent of Trump supporters and Fox News watchers would look at that video and immediately, immediately go, haha, it's a joke. Probably a hundred percent.

But the New York Times and CNN and all the fact checkers had to fact-check it for their audience. I'll bet you there was not one conservative publication that fact-checked it because they didn't have to. They didn't even occur to them to fact-check it. Why would they? Because they don't think anybody would be confused by it. Of course they covered the story of the others fact-checking it. But I think the Washington Post, CNN, and then the New York Times, I don't know how many people on the left fact-checked this thing.

But just stop and pause for a moment that there were enough people on the left who thought it would be believable. Who thought it would be perfectly believable that CNN would run a story, a video of two toddlers chasing each other, one chasing the other, and called the one toddler a racist baby. Now their audience apparently thinks that's possible, which is frickin' hilarious.

So of course it got called out because it got labeled by Twitter for being misleading. Perfect. It got fact-checked everywhere. Perfect. It got tweeted by the president. Perfect. It became a national story. Per