of anybody. Can you? Male or female, think of any personality whose demeanor, her facial expressions, just the way she acts or he acts. Can you think of anybody who didn't look presidential? If you look at the entire slate of characters from — remind me the name of who was running for Democrat in 20 — no, she was running as a Republican. I can't remember her name. But anyway, she would be another example of somebody who would not have wilted under pressure. Palin. Yeah, I think Palin would have done fine. And that's true. Carly Fiorina. Thank you. I was trying to think of Carly Fiorina. Fiorina would not have wilted under pressure. And you know it, right? Because we've seen her under pressure. She didn't wilt. So I think the claim that it was sexism just falls apart and certainly weakens that side of the story.

Let me go to the whiteboard here. We'll talk more about people's impressions about the debate. But I want to make this point before we go too far. For those of you who have not studied economics or statistics or business, you may not have heard of something called an expected value calculation. It's one of the ways that you use logic and reason and math to help you sort out what's true and what matters and what is bigger than something else. And it goes like this. You take the odds of something happening and you multiply it by the cost, and then you can compare it to other choices.

So let's say that the odds of Trump getting re-elected and destroying the United States — and of course there are lots of things that could go wrong in any administration, but we'll just keep it simple at the concept level, okay? So just imagine that there's one risk and it's the risk of the United States being totally destroyed. But it's very small. Even if you were totally anti-Trump, he's got a full term behind him so you know what you're gonna get. You might not like it, but you know what you're gonna get. And the country was not destroyed. So let's say there was a one percent chance that he would destroy America. You would multiply that one percent times — if you wanted to look at it financially, you would multiply it by the total value of the United States. You say, well, there's a one percent chance that you could have a cost that would cost the entire United States. Or a one percent chance that it would kill all the people in the United States, however many they're worth. Now we don't have to do the math because I'm just sticking to the concept.

If you were to compare that to the alternative, the alternative is a Biden-Harris administration which we know would be staffed with progressive people. AOC would have a bigger role, etc. I would say there's probably a solid 30 percent chance that going as socialist as the Democrats want to go would destroy America. I'd say about a 30 percent chance. Now if you watch Tucker Carlson it looks like it's closer to 100 percent chance. But remember that everything in the political season is sort of tripled in magnitude. So everything that seems like it's a three on a scale of one to ten is looking like a nine at the moment because everything's ratcheted up. But in reality, let's say Biden gets elected. In reality, literally what are the odds that the whole United States is going to be destroyed? Well it's not 100 percent. It's not 90. I don't think it's 70. But when you get down to about 30, when you look at the actual things that are being presented — you know, fewer police, etc. — you start to say to yourself, yeah, financially that actually wouldn't work. And if you took away the incentive for people, that's going to be bad. If you took away law and order, that's bad. So I think there's a solid 30 percent chance that America would be destroyed by a Biden administration.

Now you of course get to put your own odds on this. So there's a subjective nature of this, right? Nobody knows what's going to happen so you're just sort of guessing what the odds are. But the main point is this. The total risk of getting four more years of Trump is really small in terms of will the country be destroyed? No, no. It's a very small risk. The odds of socialism in its fuller form leading to the destruction of the United States and conquest by some other power, it's pretty good. It's pretty good actually. I