me states is very similar. In fact Biden doesn't even lead as much as Hillary was. So are we going to run into the same situation because it looks exactly like 2016? Well a lot of people are saying yes this looks exactly like 2016 so we're going to get the same result. But here's the counter argument. The counter argument from Nate Silver who I hold now as one of the best follows on Twitter. So if you're not following him you really should. He's tremendous at sticking to the numbers. Now does that mean he's always right? Of course not. It doesn't work like that. He's not the kind of job where being right all the time is even a thing but he's really right a lot. So even though he slightly got the 2016 race wrong it was only slightly. He was pretty close. So I would consider him a very credible source. And he says that the 2016 experience won't tell us about 2020 because the pollsters figured out what they did wrong in 2016 and they've made adjustments. So you can't compare them because one is before they knew they had a problem and one is after they corrected the problem. So now 2020 is good, right? Accurate now. Okay that's a smart argument.

But there's a counter to the counter which I'll offer now. Some people say that there were few if any shy Trump supporters in 2016. After all there's some difference of opinion on that but there is I think some unity on the fact that it wasn't gigantic. It may have been small, might have made the difference but it wasn't gigantic. The hidden shy Trump supporters who don't show up in polls. But 2020 is not 2016. We have four years of being vilified for being Trump supporters. If you tell me that there aren't more people hiding their Trump support in 2020 even from pollsters, if you tell me that's not a thing, you've lost all credibility. Because let me tell you I don't have data. I don't have a way to show you data to prove it but 100% of experience and observation is compatible with the fact that they're hiding. Not least of all I asked in a Twitter poll which is unscientific of course but I still got hundreds of people within a minute who said that they've lied to pollsters this year. This year they've lied to pollsters. So if hundreds of people who follow me on Twitter can in a minute will confess that they did that I think there's a lot of that out there. There's a lot of that out there.

All right, I'm starting to think that — oh and then if you look at some of the other indicators like there's one indicator that says that if the candidate who gets over 75 percent in the primaries always gets reelected. So there are a bunch of other little weirdo kinds of trends and correlations that favor the president. So all of the ones that can't be rigged favor Trump. All of the ones that can be rigged and we're pretty sure they were in 2016, all of those seem to be against Trump. So if it's something that can be rigged it's against Trump. If it can't be rigged such as looking at how much anybody got in the primaries in the past, if it can't be rigged it favors Trump. Coincidence? A coincidence that the only things that don't favor him are the things that are easily rigged and were in 2016? As far as I can tell.

All right, here's an annoying provocative thought. I feel as though the election could come down to — you know it'll always be close — it could come down to how successfully the Harris Biden campaign, that's what I'm going to call them from now on, the Harris Biden campaign and their corporate lackeys, it might come down to how well they can keep Black voters uninformed. Isn't that awful? That the election in this country will almost certainly come down to how well Democrats can bamboozle and dupe Black voters into thinking Trump is something he's not. And the key to that, the most import