Coffee With Scott Adams — Knowledge Archive October 9, 2026
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nk of one? Because presidents usually start off pretty well, right? Usually the first honeymoon period. Somebody says Bush. But what did Bush do in the first 30 to 60 days? I don't think anybody's had a worse start. This might be the, oh, 9/11. Was 9/11 in the first two months of Bush? Yeah, I don't know. All right. Here's a question that you think we ought to know the answer to but according to…

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aster the curve falls just like you'd expect.

But it didn't take long for people to say, "Well here's my chart of other countries who have exactly the same curve and they're not vaccinating much at all." To which I say, damn it. Damn it again. We actually, is it true that we can't tell if the vaccinations are working and that we'll never know?

When I say we'll never know I don't mean that science won't decide that they know. But I feel the public has already made a move and said it doesn't matter what data you show us, we're just not going to believe those vaccinations made any difference.

Yeah, I think I would agree with the commenter who's saying it's a little too soon. I feel as if we should know for sure in two months, right? But as somebody pointed out, the Spanish flu went away and they didn't have a vaccine. So why did it go away? Apparently it was not because of herd immunity. We don't know why the Spanish flu went away.

And here's the kicker. We don't know why any virus goes away, which was the most amazing thing I learned early on in the pandemic. That we don't know why the seasonal flu goes away. It just does.

Now the only thing that makes sense is that some people have some natural immunity for one reason or another. I can't think of any other reason that a virus would go away without immunity and without a vaccination.

But do you believe that we don't have data yet to know the vaccinations work? We were able to apparently, we can measure the amount of antibodies. I mean it certainly looks like we can measure it. But a number of people showed me graphs where other countries that are not doing much, actually the United States is not doing as well on vaccinations but our curve looks the same. So how do you explain that?

How do you explain that countries not vaccinating are also having a big drop at about the same time? The amount of stuff we don't know about this is just stunning.

I heard somebody who knew what they were talking about, a doctor, told me that one of the problems with counting the regular seasonal flu influenza deaths are that we count them as an influenza death if it's sort of the last thing that happened before they died. So if somebody gets influenza and then the influenza is taken care of but a few days later they die of let's say something related, maybe it's pneumonia or something, that would get counted as an influenza death even if they died with no influenza in them.

The thought is that they were weakened to the point where it's the proximate cause. But does that make sense? Because here's another way to look at it. It seems to me that anybody who dies, I'll take an average 80 year old person, aren't they dying for all the reasons? They're dying for all the reasons. One of the reasons is they didn't eat well during their entire life, didn't have a good diet. Another reason is they didn't exercise enough. Another reason is that they were born with a certain genetic propensity for things. And then there were all the decisions they made in life. Did they smoke cigarettes? Did they do this or did they do that?

Don't you need every one of those things to happen on top of the influenza in order to kill a person? But because the last thing you saw was the influenza we say that's the thing that killed you.

But if you would say removed any of the other major parts I mentioned, let's say you had always eaten well, if you went back in time and changed that variable and now you're thin but you're older, do you still die? Would you still die? If you wouldn't then it wasn't the influenza that killed you, right? It was your bad diet over years and years or your lack of exercise or you didn't take your vitamin D or whatever, right?

So it seems to me illogical to say that the last thing that happened, sort of the final straw, is the one that broke the camel's back. It's just the one that happened last. It's not like a car accident where the car accident definitely killed you, right? And it's not like cancer necessarily because the cancer kills you. I suppose you could argue that your lifestyle might have contributed to that too.

And then there's a question of whether you can count this stuff. I saw a tweet this morning that somebody claiming we already know that half a million extra people died in 2020. But I don't think we know that. I feel like we don't know the death count for 2020. But if anybody has that link send it to me. I think that's estimated.

So here's the other factor. Have you ever noticed that if you can't find your phone or your keys, where are they always? The thing you can't find, where is it always? It's always in the last place you look, right? If you can't find your keys it's in the last place you would look. And the last place you do look. Now of course I'm being silly because if you find your keys that is the last place you look. You don't need to look anymore. You found your keys.

And so how many people who are let's say within a year of dying get the influenza and then because just the order of things death comes after? Do you know it's harder to die first and then get the influenza after you're dead? I'm no doctor but I think that's a safe sentence.

So suppose it's flu season and people are going to get the flu. Old people, some of them get the flu within a few weeks of a death. But maybe they were gonna die anyway and the flu maybe pushed it up a few days or a few weeks. I don't know. But is that really the cause of death if you were only a few weeks away from death? Because it seems to me that just the coincidental timing of people getting the flu and then they were going to die anyway, I feel like that would get a little overcounting going on. But I'm not sure.

So the quality of our data on everything from influenza to masks to distancing to vaccinations, we're at a point where we don't believe anything. And maybe we don't. And I don't think influenza, the regular influenza, is even based on death certificates. I think it's some kind of weird estimate.

All right. Apparently Biden's Department of Homeland Security secretary insists that the border is closed and it's under control except for lone children. So that's the Biden administration says that it's closed except for lone children.

So the question I ask you is why does the Biden administration not want adults to come in? Is it because he's racist? Because it seems pretty racist to close your border and not let one brown person in who's an adult. Come on. Are there any white people you're keeping out from crossing the southern border? Well a few maybe who came from Europe and tried to get in that way. But mostly Biden is keeping the brown people from crossing the border and I don't think we can ignore that. Of course that's what would be said if it were Trump.

Yeah, it's ageism. It's ageism exactly. That's exactly what it is.

Now how would you regard the Joe Biden kids in cubicles problem if the press had been able to report on it and if Biden had been completely transparent about how bad it was? I feel as if I would have taken that completely differently.

Imagine if you will that Biden had said exactly the opposite of what he said, which is, "Yeah, you know, because I said we were going to be kind to children it totally causes more children to come here unaccompanied. That's all on me. But the alternative is worse and I'm going to show you what we're doing. We're not prepared. I wish we were. It's going to get ugly down there but we're going to prepare as fast as we can. So we're going to let the photojournalists and the journalists talk to everybody. You see how bad it is. It's as bad as you think it is. Take a picture. We're working as hard as we can to fix it."

I feel like that would have felt different to me. That would have felt like we've got a bad problem and nobody has a good idea or the immediate resources for solving it. And then I would say, okay, at least that's honest. Maybe I wouldn't have played it that way but

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at least it's honest, right? I'll take that. But it feels like Biden has given us a bad situation and then on top of it made it non-transparent. Oh, that's not good. That's not good. All right. Southern states should form a sanctuary coalition, somebody's saying, to fix this themselves. I don't know how they do that. Somebody says, "Boy you are easy." Well don't get me wrong. I think that Trump'…

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