Back to episode — Episode 1552 Scott Adams - Lots of Bombshells and Amazing Stories Today. Don't Miss it
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ng to overthrow the government by colluding with Russia literally, allegedly, and then blaming Trump for it. It's really mind-boggling, isn't it? It's mind-boggling. Exactly what Q said all along. Somebody says, okay, but read Joel Pollak's write-up in Breitbart because that'll give you some good background. Well, since we're talking about fake news, this is one of the biggest stories for the la…
← Previous segment →with me, including choking specifically? Actually, all right. I'm seeing lots of yeses. Yes, it is confirmed. Confirmed.
So it doesn't matter how many people say no. It doesn't matter if you've never seen it. Look at all the yeses, right? So basically Dave Portnoy is a victim of a hit piece in which the entire point of it is his sex life is a lot like normal. That's it. That was the hit piece. His sex life looks pretty normal, but some women report some bad reactions to it when they were pressed.
Here's the thing. Let me give you my life experience percentages. If a person is non-famous — non-famous, this is the key word, non-famous — and you hear a credible person say that they committed, let's say, a sex crime, what do you think are the odds it will be true? Forget about you don't know anything about it. You only know it's a non-famous person, and you know that a credible person made an accusation. How often in your experience will the credible accusation actually be true? What percentage? Give me a percentage, zero to 100 percent.
John says 10. 10, I see more 10. Give me some more. Remember, I'm talking about non-famous people. 60, 50, 50, seeing twenties. Here's my personal estimate: more like 50 to 75. Because it takes a lot to make an accusation like that. The accuser has to take some big risk to make an accusation. So I don't think it's 10. I think it's probably 50 to 75 percent. And that still leaves a lot of false accusations. But I would say if you were first presented with the accusation, don't assume it's true. But you could put some statistics on it and say, yeah, this person's taking a pretty big risk for an unknown person. You know, there doesn't seem to be anything in it for them. 50 to 75.
All right, now turn around. There's a sex accusation against a famous person, especially one in politics. And you know Dave — arguably Dave Portnoy is involved in political speech. What are the odds that a famous person's sex accusations turn out to be true?
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What do you think? Do you think it's still 50, 50, 75? In my experience it's closer to zero. Yeah, it's closer to zero. Might be five, 10 percent. You could give it that. But if the only thing you knew is what's in the news about Dave Portnoy, you should play the odds. Play the odds. It's closer to a 90 percent chance that the odds are BS. If he were not famous, I would reverse it. If you were no…
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