Back to episode — Episode 1815 Scott Adams - The January 6 Hearings Have Cleared Trump. Will News Report It That Way?
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erbole. Like what's that mean? Are you talking about something specific? Now it's the headline. The headline to CNN is that the economists don't understand the economy. It's the headline, right? How many people thought it was ridiculous when I said that the experts don't understand the economy? It sounded ridiculous, didn't it? But now it's common understanding. How many times have I done that? D…
← Previous segment →umes a small range of change. Economics assumes that the world changes at a somewhat predictable regular pace or at least is the same as it was the last 10 years. Right? Maybe modern day has changed faster than old days but if the last 10 years would be a pretty good proxy for change. So everything that you know about economics, every common assumption, is assume that the base of all of our assumptions about everything stay about the same and that economics is just running on top of those assumptions.
But the pandemic — and I'm going to give Naval Ravikant the credit for I think the first person who observed this — his prediction was that the pandemic would make everything that was going to happen anyway happen faster. And we're seeing it, right? So right now we have legacy systems that are operating at the same time as the replacement system for a short period of time. What happens to employment numbers when you still have the old system but you're bringing up the new system? You need twice as many people because you still have the old system but you've now added the new system.
For example, before the pandemic mostly you got your food from the grocery store. Is the grocery store still there? Yes it is. Grocery store is still t
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here, still employs about the same number of people. But on top of that, because it was so hard to go anywhere during the pandemic, the food delivery business exploded. So now you have the entire grocery industry just the way it was but on top of it you have what I think will be the long-term replacement industry, which is the food comes to you. Do you buy it? So that would be an explanation of wh…
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