Back to episode — Episode 1886 Scott Adams - Elon Musk's Peace Plans For Ukraine And Trump's Latest Provocation
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on that for a second. My conversations with the AI are already — this is not a joke, not a joke, there's no exaggeration here, there's no hyperbole — it's already better than 80 percent of humans already. Now that's sort of a trick because we only like to hang around with the 20 that are fun anyway, right? Like your 20 percent of humans might be different than my 20 percent, but generally speaking…
← Previous segment →gets you. Like I've had a number of experiences where something so human happened that I just laughed and said, I just love you. I mean I wasn't saying I love love you to the app, but it definitely can get under your skin.
All right, so I don't think necessarily the initial — oh, and here's another predictor. One of my best ways to predict the future. You ready for this? If you're trying to predict what products will be a big hit in the future, there's one way to do it that works just about every time. It goes like this. Is the bad version popular? Is the bad version popular? This is the bad version. Not connected to the internet, can't remember a thing about me from one day to the next, and gets confused on a lot of topics. This bad version? Totally awesome.
Do you know what else is like that? The first computers. First computers were terrible. First fax machines, terrible, terrible. First cell phone, terrible. First smartphone, terrible, terrible. But what did they all have in common? The terrible version was popular because it was so good that even the terrible one was good.
Now that was true of my comic strip as well. If you saw the first, I don't know, six months of Dilbert comics, if you looked at them with today's eyes, you'd say to yourself, how did you ever become a cartoonist? These look like they were scratched by a monkey. And you'd be right. They were terrible. But do you know what else they were? Awesome. They were terrible and awesome at the same time. The first version was terrible, but it was popular. Like it immediately got an audience so I could improve it over time. Same with computers. They could improve over time because the bad one was popular, so people made money and they could improve it.
Yeah, so there you go. If you are embarrassed by your first version, you're late. Was that Paul Graham? That's a famous quote, right? Or was it Marc Andreessen? Somebody famous in the startup world said that. But if you're not embarrassed by your first version, you waited too long. Somebody knows who said that. Come on. Steve Jobs? Now wouldn't have been Jobs. That doesn't sound like him. Yeah, I think it's either Graham or Andreessen. Oh, Reid Hoffman. Could have been Reid Hoffman. Okay, got it. All right, Reid Hoffman. That makes sense. Yeah, you know, I think he said that to me. I think I actually sat in Reid Hoffman's office and he said that to me. I think he actually literally said that to me. I forgot until you said so. What he said was he quoted himself, if I recall, because he said it was already a famous quote, but then he said if you're not embarrassed by your first version, you waited too long. Basically. I think I'm remembering that. I'm subject to false memory. So, oh, you ship too late. That's the actual. If you're not embarrassed, you ship too late.
Why does Scott have shifty eyes? Do I? I don't have Adam's shifty eyes. Matt Mullenweg. You're saying Matt said that? WordPress founder. Can you confirm that? I actually met Matt once at an event. Great guy.
All right, the funniest is the funniest outcome that Trump is right about election fraud. Oh yeah, let's do that. So you remember Elon Musk once tweeted that reality trends toward the funniest outcome from the observer's point of view, not the participants. So if you use that prediction filter — and of course it doesn't work every time. It's just sort of a fun thing. But the most entertaining outcome of the Fetterman versus Dr. Oz Senate race in Pennsylvania, what would be the funniest outcome for the observers? By far the funniest outcome would be the guy who has a stroke and beats the best candidate that the Republicans could field. I'm sorry, that's funny, but it is funny. If the best candidate that the Republicans could field in Pennsylvania loses to Fetterman, that's just funny. There's nothing I can do about that. It's not my fault. I didn't write it, but it's funny.
All right, so that would be the prediction. That's the funniest outcome. Now the question that prompted this is I was asked on Locals here just a moment ago if the funniest outcome would be that Trump is found correct about election being rigged. And the answer is yes. Yes, that is the funniest outcome. Yes, that would be the funniest thing of all time.
So and I have to admit, I haven't said this out loud before, I'm very influenced by that. Because the number of times that reality has been drawn toward the funniest outcome, for reasons there's no explanation. There's no reason for it. It just seems to happen. It's just an observation of a pattern. That would be funny if he turned out to be right about that. That would be funny. I don't think I can stop laughing for a month.
Now I do also, I would say that it wouldn't matter if he were right. All right, so I don't get banned from social media. I don't believe that Trump will prove his case, and it doesn't matter what the facts are. I thi
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nk that even if he found the smoking gun, the dead body, the DNA, no matter how much evidence he has, the mainstream media will say it's not there, and that would just be the end of it, right? Under the hypothetical situation, which I don't think will happen, I don't think this will happen, but hypothetically if Trump had all the goods and it was just unambiguous, he had documents, he had whistle…
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