Coffee With Scott Adams — Knowledge Archive May 24, 2026
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to lie about Hunter's laptop I'd say 50 is a lot but if they were all intel people who knew each other I could see that, right? So that's not too many people given that they're intel people who know each other. But as soon as you say worldwide like that there's nothing like that. Yeah, nobody can maintain a worldwide 100-year plan. Now that doesn't mean that there's nobody who ever said it 100 ye…

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stakes, and this is in the book that just got unpublished, making mistakes is what everybody does. I try as hard as possible not to judge people by the mistakes but rather to judge them by how they handle their mistake. Because that more thought is put into it and more character is exhibited.

So Musk learned what the real facts were and apologized in a completely adequate way in my opinion. That's as good as it gets. Again he's being criticized for a behavior that nobody condones a mistake. It's just it's kind of dickish to condemn it like it's not so out of range of things that we've all done and thought, oh I better go fix that, right? It's not like he ate a baby or something. But it was pretty funny. I like that he defaults to the funniest approach to everything. No, I feel like part of Elon Musk's operating system is that if there are two things you can do and they look sort of equally risky in terms of risk reward they'll always take the funny one. And I think he said something that suggests maybe that's actually in his mind.

All right. I saw a good theory today that some person who had inside knowledge about Putin, that Putin has a young mistress who's basically like a wife and has kids or kid I think. Kids. And so he has a young family and he has great mansions and everything he wants. And so the argument is he's not crazy. So the odds of him launching a nuclear war which would kill his young family, that you know I saw pictures of him looking at the woman who was apparently confirmed as his mistress. He looks in love. Like the way he's looking in the pictures is that look like I'm not going to lose this. And she's not like, I mean she just looks like somebody who had a genuine connection with him just based on a few photographs. So that's a pretty good argument. And that was the argument that I made without the details that it wouldn't be rational for him to start a nuclear war. It would never be good for him personally.

All right. The problem with statistics. Do you know why statistics is even a thing that people have to learn depending on their career? Why was statistics even invented? Well let me answer that question for you. It's because our common sense fools us routinely. Common sense is so opposite of what statistical truth is that we end up getting in... You saw in the last week without getting into details again there's a bunch of argument about whether a poll was accurate or not. The people who criticized the poll said oh it's such a small sample therefore cannot tell us anything. And then I would say well it only has an eight percent margin of error even at that small number assuming that the sample was collected appropriately. And I would just get like stunned silence because eight percent wouldn't have changed any conclusion from it. So it's not, that's not obvious.

And what people would say is how can 130 people represent 100 million people? And I would sort of have to just hold my tongue because I wanted to answer sarcastically. How can a small sample represent a large population? That's called statistics and polling and that's exactly the description of it. And the confidence interval tells you how confident you should be based on how small your size is. So really basic stuff people don't know about statistics.

But this brings me to Charles Barkley disagreeing with a, let's see, ESPN commentator named Kendrick Perkins. And Kendrick Perkins suggested that there was racial bias in the MVP votes because since 1990 the only people who won MVP without being in the top ten of scoring, now that sounds a little suspicious on a surface doesn't it? That somebody could be the MVP of the entire league ever and not be in the top ten of scoring. Doesn't that sound suspicious to you? And the only time it's ever happened is with three white players.

But honestly don't you think that scoring would be sort of five to one of importance compared to all of the other things? Because remember it's fans voting right? Or no is it fans voting or is it the professionals voting? Who votes for the MVP? The fans and the press who covers it so sports writers. No fans. I'm getting mixed messages here. Sports writers. So we think it's sports writers who do it. Okay.

So what, it seems suspicious to you that three, the only three times that they weren't in the top ten of scoring they're all white guys. And there's another one that's up for it I guess or got one. And then Barkley says you can't tell me because the numbers don't make sense. Does he know how many voters are white actually or did he pull 80 percent of that out of his ass? So I guess Kendrick must have said 80 percent of the voters on that are white.

My point is if only five white guys have won MVP in the last 30 years that makes zero sense. His argument zero sense. Because i

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f that was the case we'd have a lot more white MVPs. Wouldn't the numbers be way worse? So Barkley's sort of statistical instinct is that if 80 percent of the voters were white and racial bias is in it that we see like mostly white winners. Does that make sense to you? That makes sense to you? Neither of these arguments make any damn sense. Neither side makes any sense, right? Because neither of t…

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