e slightest chance of that. Not even the slightest chance.

Now how about weighting? Do you think they take those 29 models and they give them all equal weight? Because normally when you do a survey you would weight it by the number of people you talk to, right? If you're going to take an average of a bunch of surveys about let's say vaccine effectiveness or something like that, the thing that would make it logical to average them is that they're individually smallish studies. So if you add them together you've got enough at least people involved to say something. But what is it you're averaging? If you're averaging climate models what is the meta-analysis logic that adding them together and taking the average is anything like, how does it even make sense? Yeah the meta-analysis at least makes sense even though it's horoscopes but at least there's a little bit of logic to it. If the only wrong with the studies was some of them were underpowered then adding them together would be exactly the right solution. But if you have completely you know just people looking at variables on their own and databases on their own, what is it you're averaging? Just the outcomes? And I'm not sure there's any logic to that or why would you even assume that the average is useful, right? There's no logic to say that the average would be useful in this specific case. There are lots of cases where the average is exactly what you want but I don't see any internal logic to this.

All right. So you don't know how many models are added to the total, new models. You don't know how many are retired. You don't know how they picked the 29 models and you don't know if they added one more variable someday to the 54 they have if it would reverse the entire direction of the curve. Let me say the faster version of all this. Nobody can predict the future. Nobody can predict the future. That's never been a thing. Ever. Ever. Right? You can say maybe that human nature stays consistent over time and that gives you a little bit of that history repeats feel but even that's fake, right? But you could definitely say all right next year humans will be selfish and susceptible to cognitive dissonance. Yeah that's fair. But you don't know anything about the variables in nature.

All right. Let's talk about that GOP debate. I saw a little of it and I watched a bunch of clips. And if you didn't watch it the four participants that are not Trump are Vivek Ramaswamy and Chris Christie and Nikki Haley and that other guy. Who's the other guy who's the fourth person on the stage? DeSantis. Something. Yeah somebody named Ron was also there. But he did not make any highlight. Ron didn't make any highlight films. The highlight films left him out.

Now here's what I take away from the whole thing. It was easy to observe that people just thought their favorite person won. I was watching David Pakman when he was observing it as an observer. So I was watching him observe in real time and his take was that Chris Christie won easily. It was like Chris Christie's night. Now Pakman's a Democrat, you know, famous Democrat. And do you think that what he was responding to was the quality of Christie's arguments or was it that Christie hates Trump the most? Obviously it's because Christie is the one who says Trump's the problem. Obviously. Right now did he really believe that Chris Christie did the best job? I think so. Yeah. I don't think he was lying. I think that we all had our subjective reality reinforced. Right? If you were in Nikki Haley's camp you thought she won. If you were in DeSantis's camp you thought he won by not making news, you know, not being crazy. If you were in Vivek's camp as I am you think he won and I do. Right? So everybody agreed with what they thought was going to happen before it happened. So you could ignore everybody's opinion of who won. Right? That's useless.

But there were some highlights. Van Jones said he was literally shaking after listening to Vivek and what he called his smooth and condescending way. And he's more dangerous than Trump because he could outlive Trump by 50 years and you might be seeing a tyrant in the making. Those are my words. But he says that Vivek's embracement of the quote replacement theory that we'll talk about is one step from Nazi propaganda. What do you take from Van Jones's reaction to Vivek? Do you say to yourself my God I had not thought of it that way but Van Jones might have a good point about this Brown fellow becoming the next Hitler? Or do you say that's the only one he's worried about? To me it looks like Van Jones is only worried about one candidate who isn't Trump. So does that make you like Vivek less knowing he's the one that scares Van Jones the most? Well if you believe that the reason he's scared is the risk of totalitarian racism then I guess you haven't listened to anything Vivek said. I feel as if this analysis of Vivek has to ignore everything he stands for, the books he's written, every TV appearance and everything he's ever posted which is 100% merit and not race. He's the most anti-racist candidate of all time by far. He is the furthest from a racist Nazi of any major candidate in the history of the United States. That's true. He says that the loudest and he's the one that says you got to include white people and white men if you're being serious about merit, if you're being serious about not being a racist. Who's the other Brown leader who says how about white people are not discriminated against either? Yes definitely don't discriminate against anybody else but why are you discriminating against white people? He's the only one.

Yeah the comment says Scott is Vivek's propaganda minister. How about I'm just endorsing him for president. Looks the same I guess.

All right. Some more things happened. So Megan Kelly asked Nikki Haley, aren't you too tight with the banks and the billionaires to win over the GOP's working class base? Good question. And she said we will take support from anybody. I don't ask them what their policies are. They ask me what my policies are. Nicely done. Nicely done. I don't think Nikki Haley is my first choice or even third or fourth choice for president but that's a good answer. That's the Willie Brown answer I always talk about where you should just go right at it. So denying that you're taking money from somebody is weak and denying, you know, sort of just restating your policies, kind of weak. But she says it directly. We'll take money from anybody. They ask me what my policies are. That's the way it works. It's not the other way around. That is a cool strong answer. I liked it.

All right. Vivek went super hard at them and he had quite a few moments. One of his moments was he challenged his competitors to name the three provinces in Ukraine that they're trying to protect. Now number one it's a messed up question meaning that I don't think you need to know the names of the provinces the same as I didn't believe that George Bush Senior really needed to know the price of a loaf of bread. Do you remember that gotcha when somebody asked George Bush Senior if he knew the price of a loaf of bread and he didn't? That really was unimportant because if he understands the inflation rate he kind of gets it. You know you don't need to be shopping for a loaf of bread yourself. That was always dumb. So when Vivek used the loaf of bread trick I'll call it to challenge them to name the three provinces, Nikki Haley got a look on her face that Vivek called out as a blank expression. Now this was the brilliant part. This was brilliant. So much like you've heard the auditory illusion of what is it green needle and the other Yanny and Laurel. Laurel and Yanny and all that stuff. So when Nikki Haley made a let's say an exaggerated expression on her face to that comment, in her like her mouth especially was sort of a smirk. I looked at the smirk and I said is that a blank expression or is that a smirk? Because a smirk says I'm going to kill you and I have the goods. But if the smirk was a uh-oh I'm in trouble well then it's the exact opposite.

So when Vivek called her out and pointed to her and said look at the blank expression, he primed you to see it as a blank expression and it was brilliant. That was probably the smartest in-the-moment play you'll ever see in your life. Because when he called it out as a blank expression you saw it that way. If he had not called it out do you know how you might have seen it? How many of you watched the debate and noticed that eventually Nikki Haley did say the names of the three provinces without prompting? Did anybody see her do it? Nope. You didn't even see it. I did. I saw it because she did it when somebody was talking over her. So one of the others or more of them were talking over her and after the conversation had gone for a while she sort of leaned into the mic and just said the names of the provinces. So if you're wondering what the smirk was for she showed you that she actually knew the names of the provinces but she did a bad job of clearing out the space so that when she delivered her kill shot that she knew the names of the provinces you could hear it and it would be her moment.

So I think you know you can't read minds. I can't read her mind. But I did observe personally her saying the names of the provinces. Now did she have to think about it? Probably. I would have to think about it for a moment. It's like could I come up with the three? And then I think Vivek said something about you know acting like she got one of them wrong or something. Crimea or something. And because there are three provinces but that doesn't include Crimea, right? Crimea's its own thing. So she got, you know she may have known. She may have gotten close or she may have had an answer that the audience would recognize or would think was the right answer. But I'm going to give Vivek an A+ for creating that situation. It was a good one for priming us to see her as a blank face and also the other people. And then also talking over her when she had a chance. And the talking over her when she had a chance to redeem herself that also worked. Right? So you might say to yourself that was really kind of sneaky. You know weaselly debate technique. To which I say that's all these debates are. All the debates are people looking for their little weaselly tricky moments. It's not about the cleverness of their argument. If it were about the solidness of the argument DeSantis would look like a winner. You know at least half of the debates was never about that. It's about creating the energy in the moment and the you know can you do it again kind of vibe. So if you didn't like Vivek you liked him even less because he was so strong in the debate. If you liked him you said oh he scored all the good hits and etc.

Another, we'll give some more moments here. So Vivek said that he believes, why am I the only person on the stage at least who you can say that, and they listed several things that are really controversial that he says he believes now that other people are afraid to say they believe. So the first one is that January 6 now looks like it was an inside job. Now he says looks like it was which is the fairest way to say it. If he said it was I think that'd be going too far but he's really smart about knowing where that line is. So he says it looks like it was an inside job and it does. It looks like it. I also do not declare that it was but based on what we've seen I'd say the hypothesis that it was an inside job is dominant. You're more likely than the opposite but I don't know for sure.

Then he also said the government lied about 9/11 and Saudi Arabian involvement. Lied for 20 years. I'm not totally up on that topic but sounds like that's about right. That the 2020 election was stolen from Trump. Now when he says stolen he doesn't mean that the vote was miscounted. You know he's talking about more platform manipulation and the suppression of free speech and all that which is valid. And then here's where the trouble comes or does it? You've heard of this thing called the great replacement. I know you've heard of it. It's the idea that generally comes from a very right-wing conservative types and they say that you remember the Charlottesville march and the marchers were saying they will not replace us talking about Jews and that's just like a sliver of the larger concept. But then if you look at the border it looks like there's some kind of, well some would say, I'll say some would say that it looks like the open border is an obvious attempt to replace the current majorities with browner majorities that are more likely to vote Democrat.

Now Vivek is taking I think the border is open and they're bringing in lots of future Democrat voters to replace us meaning you know us in this case would be conservatives not white people. So when Vivek says replacement he's not talking about brown people because he's brown. Right? He's not talking about I think they want brown people to replace Vivek. That's not what he's saying. But he's definitely dancing close to the sun here because people like Van Jones are going to hear it as the racist version. But if you hear it as the why is the border open and non-citizens are pouring in and changing the nature of our country in ways that maybe he doesn't like or you don't like. So this is really dangerous and provocative but I think what he's trying to do is revive free speech. That's what I see in this comment. I don't see in this comment any kind of dog whistle. I don't think he's about the dog whistle. I think this is more about the beginning of reclaiming the great replacement from it's only what racists talk about to I'm just looking at the math. You just brought in 8 million people that weren't here before. Are they having an impact on our let's say ability to manage the country the way we were? Of course they do. Of course it might be a good impact or it might be a bad impact but it's certainly a replacing what was here in a general sense impact. But I don't think it's a racial comment. I think it has more to do with how people think actually.

All right. So we'll see if he can get away from that little hole he dug himself. A little hole because should he become president or presidential candidate he's going to have to explain this for the rest of his career. Like they'll never drop this. But he is good enough that he could take the gun from their hand and flip it around. So if you imagine Vivek answering the question hey is this great replacement thing sort of a Nazi thing he would obliterate whoever asked him that question. Like that would be another moment that he would sparkle because you should be able to obliterate that dumbass question. He could do it.

All right. And then he went after Nikki Haley for saying that when he had criticized her in prior debate Nikki Haley suggested that maybe he had a quote woman problem. Maybe he had a woman problem. Well that's not quite a nice thing to say for one Republican to another because aren't the Republicans the ones who are supposed to sort of not talk like that and not act like it's some kind of weird woke DEI thing that's kind of opposite of being a Republican at the moment. So Vivek answers by saying I don't have a woman problem. Nikki has a corruption problem. And then he held up his notes and on one page he had written Nikki equals corrupt. Did you see that moment when he held it up and showed that was all that was on his page? It was visual. It made the news and you'll remember it forever. Perfect. Perfect.

Then he said that Nikki Haley, this is a woman who will send your kids to die so she can buy a bigger house. Talking about her preferences for more warlike policies. This is a woman who will send your kids to die so she can buy a bigger house. You could write a doctoral thesis on that one sentence. It's so perfect persuasion perfection. Because you know I always tell you that fear is the best persuasion. Right? Fear is the best persuasion. What is more scary than sending your kid to die? That's pretty scary. And what is more visual than send to die so you can buy a bigger house? So you got the bigger house. You got your visual. You got your son dying. That's also visual but it's also fear. One sentence. Do you understand how good he is at this? Yeah this is a skill level that we've, I don't think we've ever seen it before honestly. I'm not aware of ever seeing anybody who operated at this level including Trump. Yeah Trump is a singular character. I always resist comparing him to anything because his own method just can't be duplicated. You can't take his method so he just sort of operates in his own zip code and he is just Trump as Trump. In fact that's all I say about him now. Trump is Trump. That's the good news and the bad news. Trump is Trump. You know why is he leading right now in the polls? Because Trump is Trump. It explains a lot. Nobody else is him. If anybody else could be him they might be leading in the polls too. But Trump is Trump. There's only one. There will never be another one. If you like that there's nobody else to vote for.

All right. So that was pretty artistic from Vivek. She called her, she says she's the donor's, she has donor puppet masters. I like puppet master too because you can see the puppet strings. Visual. Visual. Visual. Just so good on the visual stuff. And then he says directly that he rejects identity politics. He says two X chromosomes does not immunize you from criticism. Oh thank you. Yeah Vivek slamming Nikki Haley for being too woke. That is the show I wanted to watch. That one speaks to every part of my body. I can feel that. Right there are a lot of things that you say oh that's a good intellectual point. I like that policy. That's a good policy. When he said two X chromosomes do not immunize you from criticism and he rejects identity politics I could feel it like in my body. I can feel that. That's a whole different level.

Yeah so there's some controversy about I guess the Rumble feed that was covering the debate. I guess it glitched out when somebody maybe Megan Kelly asked about the warp speed you know the getting the vaccinations fast with Trump. And so people are saying oh that's a coincidence that it cut out just on that question but it wasn't coincidence. It was just technical problem. There it is. Very unlikely that Rumble would cut out on a Republican debate. Let me say that again. There's not really any chance that Rumble intentionally cut a feed at any point during a Republican debate. That is not a possibility. There's no real world possibility that that happened at all.

All right. What else? So I notice I didn't mention DeSantis. I feel like DeSantis is just running out the clock you know sort of waiting around to see if anything happens with Trump but not really trying too hard to win at this point. I think he's just trying to do an honest attempt because he has backers and they want him to do it. Just looks like I mean he did not seem engaged. He just did his good DeSantis job. And by the way I have the funniest or unusual take on DeSantis. DeSantis is the best politician that doesn't interest me. So it's like a compliment actually. That's just a complete compliment. Do you know why he doesn't interest me? Because he doesn't do crazy every day. There's no crazy. He just like sort of does good things that his base wants him to do. He's a great politician in terms of execution. But for the presidency if you're running against Trump you're running against a superstar. He doesn't have superstar energy to level up to you know the Taylor Swift of politicians. So it's terribly unfair. And if DeSantis comes back around in some subsequent year and runs for president I can see supporting him. Yeah he's a solid patriotic good servant to the people I think.

So The Rock, Dwayne The Rock Johnson, did some mysterious meeting with the military folks at the Pentagon after you know long ago saying that the parties wanted him to run for president. The parties. I love the way he says it making it seem like he you know even the Democrats and even the Republicans both sides. Yes it's the parties. Oh don't ask me which side. I mean they all want me. So he's very smart to not kill the rumor because the longer the rumor goes the more fun it is for him and more free attention he gets. So he's smart to keep it going. But I would say it's unlikely that he was talking to the Pentagon to line up his support for running for president or to do his research before he ran for president or any of that. The most likely scenario is he has some business with the Pentagon. Could be he's doing a movie, might want some support from the military. Could be the military wants him to be sort of an ambassador to improve recruitment. He's got to be perfect for that. So I doubt that it's because he's running for president but it's fun. It's fun to think about it.

Speaking of fun Axios is reporting that Melania thinks Tucker Carlson would be a great VP for Trump because he's sort of the more articulate version of Trump with very similar attitudes about things. Now I don't think it's going to be Tucker because I don't think Tucker would be reckless enough to take the job. It seems like Tucker is in sort of an ideal place for his media life and unless he's looking for a radical change to that which would surprise me I don't think he's going to even consider it. But it's a lot of fun isn't it? It's a lot of fun. I tell myself okay like just game that out in your mind. Question number one would Trump do better in the election if Tucker is his vice president? Go. Would Trump do better in the election? Almost all no's. Wow about 80% no's on Locals. What do you think YouTube? Oh YouTube is more yeses. Well also lot of no's. I should have waited. All right more no's than yeses. So a lot of you don't think he would change the outcome.

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