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NewsReaction Politics as Persuasion

Back to episode — Episode 2569 CWSA 08/17/24

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art News is reporting — Warner Todd Huston at Breitbart News — the nearly one in three Chicago school teachers keep their kids out of public schools. Let me just say that again because I don't have to add much commentary to it. One in three public school teachers in Chicago don't send their own children to public school. Now do you think that one in three school teachers come from a family where…

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s totally broken. You better keep your kid out of it. Wow.

Well, as you know, Kamala Harris has proposed a government $25,000 for first-time home buyers to help them buy a house. I saw Mark Cuban is doing some persuading on this, showing it's a good idea. And when I looked at his analysis, all I could conclude is that ordinary people should not be allowed to do economic analysis. Now Mark Cuban is very smart, but doing an economic analysis is a little bit different than just being smart. It takes a little bit of experience that even smart people wouldn't know they're missing something.

So I would say that while I conclude that Cuban is very smart in lots of different ways, I don't think he's the one you would look to to analyze this. Now I'm not sure I am, but I have been a lending officer at a bank. So that's a pretty relevant experience. It wasn't mortgage lending, but there are some overlaps. And here's what I say. In California, $25,000 — well, let me put it this way. Here's the way I posted it. Where I live, if I were the loan officer, let's say I'm the mortgage lender and somebody comes in and they say here's my application for the loan and I look at it and it doesn't qualify and so I turn them down. So they go back and they get their $25,000 from the government and they come back in. They go, look, now I've got extra $25,000. How often would $25,000 change my decision as a mortgage lender? What do you think? $25,000, that's a lot of money, right?

How often would it change my decision to say that this lender wasn't qualified before but now they are qualified? The answer is never. The answer is never. Zero. There wouldn't be a single extra loan I gave. If somebody didn't qualify before the $25,000, there's no way that I'm going to think that $25,000 is going to make that a safe loan. There is no way that $25,000 makes a difference. Because if you're that close to not being able to pay off the loan, no banker is going to give you the loan. If you're that close to the margin of not being able to pay back the loan, are you kidding me? $25,000 is like pissing in the ocean in California.

Now I will revise this to say that there may be a part of the country where if you could get maybe a condo for $250,000, the $25,000 starts sounding substantial at that point. But still, if your income was only just enough to pay the mortgage if only you had that extra $25,000, it doesn't sound safe to me. Sounds like you're right on the margin and the slightest disruption in your employment makes you in default. That's just so that's some perspective from a lender. If you're just looking at somebody who's not a lender and they're just crunching some numbers for you and say, oh look, here's somebody who could save some money with this $25,000 thing, that's the wrong analysis. The analysis should be from the commercial lender's perspective because they're the ones who decide if you get the loan.

So how about t

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his? How about you tell me if CNN or MSNBC will have a mortgage loan broker on and then you ask the question, hey, how many more loans do you think you'll make if people get $25,000 for their first home buy? Let's see what they say. At best they'll say something generic like, well, you know, more money is better. I don't know. But if you ask them how many extra loans they'd make, it'd probably be…

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