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Back to episode — Episode 2658 CWSA 11/13/24

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that chronic inflammation is linked to depression? Not just that the depression causes the inflammation, but rather the inflammation seems to cause the depression. Now, they could have done that study or they could have just asked me, because I've been telling you for a while that, hey, I think inflammation is causing depression. How many of you heard that from me before there was a study that say…

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that he wants to get involved for the public, to benefit the public. I'll listen to him.

So I got to tell you the golden age is waiting for one more penny to drop. You know what I mean? I feel like the golden age is going to happen, but we need this. The golden age requires that Daniel Penny goes free. So let's drop the final penny on this, huh? Let's do this. I'm depending on you, jury.

Core inflation is exactly what people estimated at 3.3%. That's about a non-story, just staying where it was. Now prices are too high, of course. On the news they like to confuse you. The current inflation is not too terrible, but we've already reached a level where you can't afford your eggs. So another 3% on that is not going to help you at all. So it's not really that helpful that the inflation rate has stopped going up fast. You also need the prices to come down.

All right. According to financial expert Ed Dowd, Zero Hedge is reporting this. Dowd says that Trump just got handed a third of an economy in fraudulent books. So his idea is that he can predict based on things he's seeing already that the economy is actually in deep trouble and the Democrats are lucky that they got out of office and Trump is going to have to handle it.

Now, do you think it's true that there are troubling signs sort of below the headline level of the economy? You know, the headline is jobs and inflation and GDP, but below that there could be a whole bunch of indicators that are kind of sending the alarm. Well, yes and no. Have you ever noticed that economists cannot predict the future? Has anybody noticed that economists as a group and even individually cannot predict the future? If they could, they would not be working as economists because they would already be billionaire investors, right? It would be the easiest thing in the world. If you really could tell what was going to happen in the future and other people couldn't, you would be Warren Buffett. But if you're not Warren Buffett and you're telling me you can see the future, I've got questions. Like is it the first time we've ever seen the future? Those other times you saw the future, did you invest heavily in it? I'm not so sure.

So I don't trust any economist telling you that they can see the signs. That doesn't mean he's wrong because your economy is either going to go up or it's going to go down. It rarely just bubbles along at the same level. It's an up or down situation. So everybody who says it's going to go up has a good chance of being right. Everybody who says it's going to go down has a pretty good chance of being right. Some of them will be right. Here's what you don't want to do. Say, oh, that economist was right. I guess I better listen to him the next time. Nope, nope, no, doesn't work that way. Didn't work that way for the pandemic either. Somebody was going to be right and somebody was going to be wrong about, let's say, the vaccinations or any part of it, the masks, anything. Somebody was going to be right and they're going to tell you they were right because they saw the signs and you did not. That doesn't mean they know. That's why they were right. If it's a coin flip, somebody's going to be right and they're going to claim credit for it. So beware of economists who tell you they got it right last time. Doesn't mean a thing. Somebody was going to get it right and they were going to say they got it right because they're smarter and they can predict it better next time. It's just not a thing. Nobody can see the future.

All right, but on that note, Bill Ackman said for the contrarian opinion that he's hearing from everybody, including people who did not support Trump, that they've never felt so optimistic about the country or the economy. Now I feel more optimism about America and about our economy than at any time in my life. Now how much of that is just the Trump persuasion magic? How much of it is me talking myself into it because you know it's confirmation bias and I want it to be true? And how much of it is it's just true?

Now when Bill Ackman talks to other people, especially the ones who are not Trump supporters, if you're getting a lot of not-Trump supporters who are so optimistic they're driving the stock market up, which they are, that is a really strong indication of what the economists call the animal spirits. The animal spirits I guess would be best described as just the way everybody feels about the future, not their logic but how they feel about it. And the way people feel about it is that all possibility just became options. We went from a place where it seemed we had no options and no possibilities to anything's possible. If Pete Hegseth can be the Secretary of Defense, we'll talk about that more. There's just one symbol, of which there have been many in the last few days, that anything's possible.

Trump wins in the third act victory that literally no historian would have predicted. None. Can historians tell you the future because they know the past? Do you remember when historians would tell you you have to study history because that's how you know what's going to happen next? Well, how did the historians do? How'd they do? Let's do a poll of the historians and say how many of you thought Trump was going to win another term? Now let's compare it to the cartoonists. I'm pretty sure I did better than the historians on this one. Pretty sure I've been telling you for a while that not only would Trump be more popular every day he was out of

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office, true, but that he could win another term and it would be the greatest third act of all time, true. I was also reminded today that I had predicted at one point that the public had decided that whether Trump had the goods or not to win the election, that we were going to drag his body across the finish line. And that happened too. You saw that the public sort of almost like the immune syste…

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