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Episodes Episode #2750 Segments
NewsReaction Politics as Persuasion

Back to episode — Episode 2750 CWSA 02/14/25

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get them to cut their budget. Right? That's the same thing I thought when Trump said let's make Canada a state. And I said to myself, okay, that's not real. He's just playing with them. You know, maybe it's a negotiation. Maybe he would like to do it but clearly that's never going to happen. But already it looks like it's possible. Canada becoming a 51st state. I still wouldn't bet on it. If I had…

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true in history? I don't know that it has. Where we have a situation where the only border is China and Russia and I don't see any chance that either one of them wants to change that border. That's not even a conversation.

So what happens if you've got three powers that coincidentally all have the same problems? This is where it gets fun. All three countries have the same problems. One is demographic. China's got a big demographic, lots of old people, not enough young people. It's almost unsolvable. It's like doom heading their way. United States much the same. We've got that demographic problem. Russia, demographic problem. So we've got a bunch of countries that are going to have severe economic problems and you could argue that we all three already do. It's harder for us to know exactly what's happening in Russia or China because the information is not reliable. But there's good reason to think that they might have as much debt problems as we do, growth problems as we do. We might be in very similar situation.

The only thing you need is a common enemy. What if you had a common enemy? That's really the only way you can get adversaries on the same page. Common enemy. And you know how Trump started out with when he talked to Putin. He said yeah we talked about the history of World War II which was the cleanest example of Russia and the United States being on the same team for a while and it worked out, saved the world in a sense. So if we could find a way to be on the same team there might be something here. It might not be crazy.

So imagine if we could say this. And again these are not good ideas. So when you jump on me and say but you forgot this, you forgot that, I know, I know these are not good ideas. It's just to sort of deepen the thought. Suppose Trump said to the other big countries how about this. Forget about the United Nations. Why don't the three of us agree that we will never under any circumstance invade or attack the homeland of the other? Now I think they would all say yes. Yes, if there's any way we can make that happen yes. We will never attack the homeland. All of our problems are about smaller countries. There's Taiwan, there's Ukraine, you know there are other countries on the border of Russia, probably some other areas on the border of China. And then the US has its own interests. You know, Greenland and Panama and maybe Canada. And could it be that they could reach an agreement?

Now this will scare you but could it be that we'd reach an agreement where we'd say all right, all of the remaining property disputes, let's just settle them right now. Let's just say if Taiwan's your next door neighbor and there's no doubt where it's going in the long run, why don't we just say all right Taiwan is yours. No, not today, not today. The very minimum we need to do is get the chip making facilities out in Taiwan. But suppose we said why don't we make a 100-year plan and that at the end of 100 years Taiwan and China will be the same country. Because in 100 years there's going to be AI and changes and robots and who knows if the chips will even be made there anymore and everything will be different. So nobody really worries about 100 years. But suppose you just say to China we don't want to fight you but if you go in and get rid of our chip access we have to. So let's just take it off the table. Let's just say for 100 years we absolutely will not fight over Taiwan. And at the end of 100 years you guys work it out. You know I'm not saying that it gets absorbed but you guys work it out in 100 years.

Now again it's not a great idea. It's not a great idea. I'm just helping you think it through. Then suppose we said each of us have our own interests so why don't we just take care of our most local interests. So we'd say you guys don't fight with us over Greenland or Panama and China maybe should put a smaller footprint on South America because Monroe Doctrine, you know the Monroe Doctrine says this is sort of our domain over here. But in return we'll stay out of your business as long as it doesn't go crazy in Taiwan too soon. And then you say to Russia all right what's your biggest problem? Now here's the trust problem. You know you think they're going to try to take over all their neighbors and of course they might. So could you say how about if we can just at least solve Ukraine and agree not to move NATO any closer? If we do that could you get a deal on that? Maybe. Maybe you'd have to do something to make sure they didn't use their clever ways to take over the governments that they want to take over on their borders. But I feel like if you made it zero risk of them being attacked by NATO which you could do, I think you can get down to it. If you can get down to zero risk that NATO wants to attack you then suddenly their need to control the other countries goes way down, goes way down.

So could you do some big deal where you just settle everything at the same time and some of them just have a long-term plan and others maybe don't need a long-term plan? Now then you say look we also have a common enemy. Now I hate to put it in those terms but because I'm not talking about Islam in general because there are plenty of moderate excellent Islamic people but the radical version of Islam which can spread if you let it is a mutual risk to all three of the big countries. So China, Russia and the United States all have an interest in keeping the radicalized part of Islam controlled. So you say to them we work together to take care of that and we also do something to work together to worry abou

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t our demographic problem perhaps, maybe something about our debt problems that are the same. And the best way to get rid of your debt problems would be to reduce your military spending by half. So as crazy as it is to imagine that we would negotiate with adversaries about cutting their budget for the military, you know, and you'd expect both sides would cheat and they would hide their budget in…

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