st break your brain. You ready? You've heard me say this before, but now I'm gonna apply it to this situation, and now it's gonna click for you. Get ready for this. This one's a mindblower.

Okay. Now, I've told you a million times that there's a problem with reproducibility of studies. Meaning that over half of them, if you count the intentionally fraudulent ones and intentionally fraudulent publications and all that, probably over half turn out not to be true or not to be reproducible. All right. Now take that fact that usually any report about science is going to turn out to be wrong. So then you hear a fact like this from RFK Jr. but that there's a study. Turns out maybe that doesn't exist or the study doesn't actually say that, but there's a factoid he gives you. What should be your default? If you haven't done any research, you've done no research. What should be your default opinion about that data? Here would be the wrong way to look at it. Well, that agrees with my preconceived notion. That looks pretty good to me. I think we've got a winner. Oh yeah. Nope. That's just what I thought would happen. I mean, I told you I was smart. I had that prediction and yeah. So that would be the wrong way to do it. Here would be the right way to do it. It's probably not true. And it wouldn't matter who said it if they're quoting. So you've got two problems here. One is, was this study even valid? And the answer is probably not. And that's only based on probability of all studies. They're usually not true. A little over 50%. But on top of that, Mary explains that he interpreted the study wrong. So you've got the risk that somebody interpreted it wrong or the risk that they left out a key part or a risk that you misunderstood what they said. On top of that is a risk that the science was invalid to begin with. So that's the world we live in. Your default assumption should be I have learned nothing. There's no information here. I would like to know and maybe if there were lots of studies and time went by and the consensus moved in one direction or not, you might feel more confident. But no, if somebody just throws out some shocking number like that that doesn't agree with other experts, probably not true. Could be. Can't rule it out, but probably not. Probably not.

All right. So thank you, Mary, for that very useful analysis. But if you want to see her full analysis, look in my feed on X.

President Trump has announced that Rudy Giuliani is going to get the Medal of Freedom. Now, I don't know if that was triggered by the fact that Rudy had that serious accident, vehicle accident that he's recovering from, or it was going to happen anyway and they're going to do it now to cheer him up. I don't know how that worked, but he's recovering. And so he was in New Hampshire and pulled over because some woman who had been the victim of domestic abuse flagged him down. And he must have parked. This is me speculating based on what little we know of the situation. I think he pulled over to help and then he was going to stay there with her until the police got there because he helped her contact the police. So the police showed up and then he pulled into traffic and just got rammed from behind by a 19-year-old woman. And they didn't say that she was on her phone, but when I hear 19-year-old woman hits some other car so hard that it just obliterates it and puts somebody in the hospital, I kind of automatically think might have been on the phone. I mean, I don't want to start any rumors or anything, but it's the first thing I think, right? Isn't that the first thing you think? Because it's sort of hard, even if you came around a blind turn, it's sort of hard to hit somebody that hard if you're even watching the road. So anyway, I don't know if alcohol was involved or anything else. We don't know. So we won't assume, but I will assume that probably the place that he pulled over to help was not the safest place to pull over. Meaning that when he pulled back into traffic, there probably was some lack of visibility from the oncoming traffic. That's probably what happened. Probably just a lack of visibility. A place you would never have pulled over like unless you were helping some woman who was a victim of something. So he did the right thing and took probably a little extra physical risk to get it done. Well, no, definitely because he got in between an abuser and the abused. So that's pretty baller actually. You know, he's 80 years old and he still decided he was going to get involved in that and then he was going to wait with her, which means that there was a risk that the abuser was going to show up any minute. So that's pretty brave and he took some risks to help a person and sadly it didn't work out. So Medal of Freedom time.

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