Back to episode — Episode 2983 CWSA 10/09/25
Context —
ltman has what I consider a smarter better test for AI. And he says it's when we see our first AI scientist. Meaning that the AI will discover and invent things scientifically that humans just couldn't or didn't. And once it can become like a peer of, hey, I just invented a new thing or discovered a new thing, then that would be a better test than the Turing test. I agree with him completely. Als…
← Previous segment →k into the data. It's not going to find out if the publisher is a crook. All that stuff. So how does Microsoft get to or anybody get to an AI doctor when it's being trained on 50% incorrect data and it doesn't know which half is incorrect? It's the same problem with humans. So maybe it's no worse than humans. Might be better than humans, but I don't see how you get to AI when you're being trained on a dumb AI.
Meanwhile, Elon Musk got another $20 billion of funding led by Nvidia. So Nvidia's going in on a lot of the AI companies because they want them to succeed so they can sell them more chips. And Elon Musk was saying something on X that the winner in the AI race will be, I'll paraphrase him, but it's basically whoever builds the biggest data centers and buys the most chips and puts the most cash into it will be the winner. Now there will be more than one winner in the AI domain. I'm pretty sure. I mean, I hope so. But there won't be that many and it will definitely make a difference if you're the number one winner or the number three winner. So he's trying to be number one. I like his chances.
But what I wondered is if AI as a business is unique in that there's no way to put a moat around it. You know, Facebook has its own moat because once everybody gets on there, there's a network effect. And even if somebody built the Facebook competitor, which of course they tried, your friends wouldn't be there. So that's like a moat that protects Facebook just by getting there first. And the other social media, too. Now there are lots of other big tech that you could say the same thing. It's like, whoa, once they got there, nobody could really catch up. Like nobody really made a search engine as good as Google, you know? Although it looks like that's happening with AI. So my question is, is it possible, I'm just speculating here, that AI would be the first mega giant civilization changing technology that could never be moated. And the reason I think it could never be moated is because startups will also have AI. And the startups. Somebody, this is my prediction, somebody fairly soon, maybe in the next five years, will spend $1 billion to recreate what it took Elon and ChatGPT a trillion dollars to get to. Anybody want to take the other side of that bet? Within 5 years, an AI startup will match the biggest AI spending $1 billion to get there where the big AIs have put down 1 trillion and are figuring some way to monetize it. 1 billion to 1 trillion. That's my prediction.
So if that's true, and we don't know that that's true, how would the big companies ever protect themselves? Is it just owning the biggest data center? Because if the small company figures out a way to do it with a small data center, how do they compete with the big data center? I don't know. I guess they buy that little company and put them out of business. Oh yeah, that would work. I just realized that the big AI companies would just buy the billion-dollar startup and put it out of business and steal their tech. Anyway, so maybe there is a moat.
According to Rasmussen poll, only 48% of adults under 30 have a full-time job. According to Michael Snyder, who's writing the economic collapse? Does that sound like a problem to you that only 48% of people under 30 have a full-time job? Well, first you would have to subtract the people in college, right? The people in college almost never have full-time jobs, but a lot of them have part-time jobs. So but that's the people in colleg
Context —
e under 30 would be I don't know 10% of them. So that's not most of them. But I do wonder if the time in history is sort of weirdly perfect that there are a lot of unemployed young people for reasons that probably have nothing to do with AI, but AI is going to make a lot of people maybe underemployed. Maybe part-time work is what we all want and then AI fills in for the rest. Would you be happy if…
Next segment → →