Back to episode — Episode 901 Scott Adams - I Feel a Sensational Simultaneous Swaddle Coming on. Don't Resist!
Context —
tter is the brain of civilization. And because it exists all the best ideas could sort of find the right place and get filtered in a way that we could have never done before prior to Twitter. So if you look at everything from our political systems even our financial systems, the fact that we have such a robust banking system and that Mnuchin could go in there and they had a full toolbox. Mnuchin…
← Previous segment →of systems that really delivered. That they adapted. That the systems themselves were almost like living creatures because none of the systems were on day one adapted to the task.
But you know let's just take one example. Twitter is not adapted to the task on day one but it takes 10 seconds for a hashtag to appear and suddenly Twitter is morphing into exactly the tool for this disease. It's almost like you could think of creating a hashtag. Twitter is almost like an antibody. You're a white blood cell. Because let's say the body of humanity is attacked. So something about humanity is attacked whether it's a pandemic or some war. What's the first thing we do when humanity is attacked? The first thing we do is somebody makes a hashtag, right? The hashtag then attracts all the attention and the trends and then people know where to go and then it connects everybody and then all of the resources of the world, all the different systems start spinning up because of this little hashtag.
So this hashtag is like the antibodies that get formed on Twitter and they start spreading on Twitter which connects all the systems and pushes them into operation and then people can find each other and make connections. They know what's important. Imagine if you had to depend on just the news. Imagine this pandemic came and there was no social media and you just had to depend on the news. That's scary isn't it? That's really scary.
So the thing that's sort of invisible to you is the stuff that happens gradually. And what's happening gradually is we've most of us have sort of grown up with this evolving internet world so you lose track of how different it is from anytime before that. And one of the differences, it's almost alive. As soon as this was a problem was identified it turned into a hashtag. It reformed Twitter in real time and created like this little brain of society that was focused on this one problem. Then all the systems were activated and each of them morphed into a new system. Every system, think about it, every system in the world probably every system in the world just morphed into a new system in just days while we watched because we needed it. The most incredible thing you've ever seen in your life. I hope that we all remember it in the way that we should.
Let me give you some of my most unlikely predictions. You've heard these before but if there's anybody new it's always good context. So I've been saying for years that you should make predictions in public and then you can see if you're good at it because people will remind you if you missed it. And if you do you should tell people you got it right.
So my most unlikely predictions. Well of course you know I famously predicted that Trump would win in 2015 so that sort of put me on the map for predicting stuff. But here are some of the really weird ones. I predicted when we didn't know who the Vegas shooter was and people were saying it was probably ISIS. I said it was not. But that's not the fun part. The fun part is that when ISIS took credit for it I still publicly said nope. And then people reminded me you know ISIS doesn't take credit for things that they didn't do. I think there was one example where they might have but basically once they take credit for it it's ISIS. But I held tight and of course it was not ISIS. So that was a one for me.
When the Cuban embassy allegedly had a secretive sonic weapon and all the experts and all the news was reporting it was a secret weapon and I said never going to find that secret sonic weapon. That doesn't exist. Have we found the secret sonic weapon that doesn't exist? We have not. And I think that at this point the experts probably agree that it's not any kind of a weapon whatever it was.
And of course I was one of the first to say stop the flights from China. I was one of the first public people to say of course masks work. How could masks not work? It doesn't make any sense. Now a lot of people realized it but you know there was sort of a funny thing happening when it first came out that the experts, Surgeon General and the World Health Organization, CDC, everybody, when they were all telling us that masks wouldn't help. I feel like there was this phenomena that happened all over the place which is that a whole bunch of smart people said to themselves but I don't know, as soon as they heard this they thought to themselves this doesn't feel right. Is that right? Because that doesn't feel right. Like how could it not help at least a little bit? And they would make their silly arguments about touching your face and you'd be like yeah but that doesn't feel right. But I don't think anybody wanted to say it out loud because literally every expert just said no don't do it they don't help.
So what are you gonna do? Are you gonna go in public and say out loud in public I disagree with every scientist and expert who's weighed in based on my skill as a cartoonist? Is anybody dumb enough to do that? Well yeah I did that. That's exactly what I did. I bucked every expert and scientist in the world who all of them know far more than I do because it was obvious that they were just wrong. So you don't count that on my list.
I think by the way I made it easier for other people to say it in public because when the first idiot goes and doesn't get killed you go, oh the first idiot didn't get killed maybe I can go too.
And I also predicted that splitting ventilators would be a thing. And as of today the Surgeon General just put out some guidance that said it's a last resort but it's an approved last resort. Which makes sense right? If you have any other way to do it you wouldn't do it that way.
And then here's another one. So my public estimate for the final death toll will probably be well off of the actual number but maybe the closest one in the country. So I might have the closest estimate while still being off a bit. So mine was under five thousand net. Meaning after you subtract people who didn't get in car accidents for two months, count them and etc. Counting everything in there would be closer to five thousand and we would do such a good job. It looks like the official estimates are sixty thousand as of today but that's gross. So if you just netted out the ones that were saved it's probably gonna be half of that. So somewhere in the neighborhood of thirty thousand would be effectively the predicted net. My guess was five thousand. I think the thirty thousand is probably gonna come down a little bit. So if the experts were saying a hundred or two hundred thousand and maybe a million and I said five thousand and it comes down to net fifteen thousand or something I'm gonna say I had the best prediction. We'll see.
But here's the weirdest one. Let me do a little fact checking with you because you know how it's easy to have selective memory. It's really easy to have selective memory. And like imagine the things you didn't predict. So I need your help on this. Who in the public who talks about politics, what public person said before I did that Biden was mentally incapable? Do you remember anybody saying it in public like actually saying I'm watching this and it looks like his brain is not functioning? Did anybody say that that you heard before I did? Somebody says everyone. Well everyone has said it since yeah. Everyone said it since. But I might have been the first one to say it publicly. Maybe Mike Cernovich. So I'm not gonna claim that I said that first but I was among the first. And wouldn't you say that a year ago it wasn't as obvious but now everybody can see it? So I would say that everybody who is on record as having said you know a year ago I was kind of calling this out already, all those people are right.
My weirdest prediction is, and I tweeted it today and I know you're never supposed to reveal a conversation, a private conversation you have with the president but this is a special case and I'm only revealing this one little nugget because it's fun and because the president wouldn't mind. And it was that when he invited me to the Oval Office to chat in 2018. So this is August 2018. So just think about how long ago this was. It's August 2018. And he asked me my prediction for who would get the nomination and I said Kamala Harris and he said Joe Biden. So in August of 2018 President Trump called it. And I think we can assume that Biden will get the nomination unless he falls apart. But Trump called it. He called it correctly, confidently. He was pretty confident about it and he called it in August of 2018. That's pretty good right?
I have to say now my prediction seemed to be going poorly when Kamala Harris suspended her campaign. So you might say to yourself well Scott after ISIS has taken credit that's when you can say you're wrong. Oh no that's not how I roll. I don't care if ISIS took credit. I'm still gonna say it wasn't ISIS as with the Vegas shooter. And just because Kamala Harris stopped running for president that didn't mean she wasn't going to get the nomination. No if you recall I was quite insistent that my prediction would stand.
Now as of today the news is reporting that he's hinting so strongly that he's going to pick her as vice president that at this point you might be surprised if he didn't because he's just sort of talking about her in a way that makes you think he is. He's not doing a good job of hiding his intentions.
Now let me say as clearly as possible it's not a done deal because first of all I'm not even sure that Biden gets to pick his own vice president at this point. I feel like the deep state is just going to assign him a vice president so that the usual people are in charge once he gets into office. Or let's say even he has to drop out before he gets in office. The vice president would be the obvious one to take over the top of the ticket. So if Kamala Harris is the one who is picked I would say we're no more than 60% likely at this point if I had to put the odds on it. But it's still my prediction she would become the vice presidential pick for a candidate that even the Democrats realized is not capable to hold the job. And even Biden has suggested that he knows it too because he's talked about getting somebody younger for the obvious reason.
And it feels as though unless something changes it feels like the obvious path of this is there for all practical purposes Kamala Harris will be the nominee whether officially or not. In a practical matter I think people will be voting for the vice president. So would you say my prediction of Kamala Harris as the nominee would be wrong under these circumstances if she were the vice presidential pick? Well my critics will say yes it's wrong and I will of course say yeah it's technically wrong. It's technically wrong. And somebody says you are out of touch. Guess what happens to people who say you were out of touch? They become untouched. Now you're untouched. No you're untouched again. The rule is you can disagree with anything I say. You just can't say something about me. Don't say I'm out of touch. Just tell me what I don't know. That works too.
All right somebody's saying yes still wrong. Now if I didn't know what you meant by that I'd probably block you for that but I know what you mean. So I see a lot of you who are rejecting the prediction. So just remember this when you come back to mock me should I be wrong. Should I be wrong I will look you in the camera and I will admit I was wrong. You don't have to remind me. You don't have to remind me. I'll admit it and I promise you I will admit it if she does not get the vice presidential nod.
All right. Let's see here. I kind of said this before but I feel like when this is over whenever that happens I feel like we're gonna be proud. I feel like humanity is gonna feel like it did well. The tragedies that come out of this and the discomfort and pain are all terrible and cannot be minimized but I think we're going to be proud. I think it'll feel that way.
I also think that the unintentional benefit from this pandemic will be decoupling from China. Because I think public opinion was sort of beginning to lean in that direction. China is not our friend. But I think the pandemic changed people's emotional feeling about China and the whole relationship. And so I would say at this point we came out way ahead. The pandemic is gonna cost us how many trillion? Two or three? Two or three trillion. But I think we still come out ahead in the long run if we cut the cord with China and bring our stuff home. I think we could make up three trillion. Because remember what is the full economy? Does anybody know the full? It's a six trillion dollar economy. Somebody help me out with that. But I think if you take that three trillion and spread it out over X years as one does I think just the benefit of getting China out of our supply chain and bringing that work home we may end up making back the whole three trillion in the long run.
All right. So I've predicted that there will be an oxytocin delivery service if we have to keep up this social isolation. Because you know humans go a little squirrely if they don't have physical touch. And physical touch releases a chemical in you called oxytocin. It's the thing that makes you bond with people. It's the thing that gives you a feeling of well-being. It's the thing that calms all your stress and makes all your problems go away. You've probably noticed that you could have all the problems in the world but if you're with your loved one and you have a good time together suddenly all the problems in the world don't seem so bad. So that's the oxytocin.
And you know since we all have this social isolation what are you gonna do? What are you gonna do if somebody in the comments is saying our economy is five to six trillion? I'm seeing six trillion. So the point stands. A six trillion dollar economy could probably get back three trillion over 25 years just by the benefit of not dealing with China anymore potentially.
So oxytocin. So what's gonna happen if we keep getting starved of oxytocin besides the fact we'll be unhappy and crazy? I think you might see people who already have been tested to have recovered and have antibodies. They may do that business that you've heard of I think it still exists where people actually get paid to hug people and they just go and they cuddle with you for a while if you don't have anybody in your life. It's usually a woman. I don't think it has to be but I'll bet you see that business boom. Because think of once we have a bifurcated population where some people have recovered and they have the antibodies but other people are so vulnerable they could die. The people who have the antibodies that are confirmed to have recovered will be like super beings who can deal in both worlds. While the people who haven't yet caught anything and don't have a vaccination will be cowering in our caves. So I think some of them will actually, it will be like ordering DoorDash. I think people will order hugs. Like actual literally you'll go on your app and you'll say I just need 15 minutes of spooning and somebody will come to your house and spoon you for 15 minutes and you pay them by the app. Could happen.
So I would like to create for you for tonight an artificial oxytocin high. So that chemical that normally is only produced by close physical contact can also to a slightly lesser extent be artificially generated by a brain hack. Do you believe it? Do you? There's a brain hack or a trick that can kind of close the circuitry in your brain that initiates your oxytocin. Because remember it happens basically in your brain in your own body even though the other person is involved. It's not like they're shooting chemicals from their body into yours, right? Your experience is a subjective one and your feeling of the subjective experience is what makes your brain chemistry do a certain thing which triggers your oxytocin that flows into your body and your mind. It makes you feel awesome.
So if there were some way to close that little circuitry and activate your oxytocin without the benefit of a person there wouldn't that be cool? It turns out there is and I've taught you the trick but until you see lots of examples of it you don't completely get the beauty of it. And the trick is that our mind is an association engine. It's a pattern recognition engine sometimes but it's also an association engine. So if for example I took this bottle of water, yeah that's a bad example this is too common. Let's say I took this little tripod that's a little bit less common than a bottle of water and every time I showed it to you I fed you a delicious meal, your favorite meal like the best food you've ever had in your life but no other time do you ever get to see this. It's the only time you'll ever see it. Over time simply seeing this without the food would start to make you happy in the same way that the delicious food did. So your brain just automatically pairs things whether you like it or not.
Now you knew this of course because that's the basic concept behind you hear a song that was your song when you were in a relationship and it makes you sad because it reminds you of that right? So you know those songs can trigger a relationship. Lots of other things can trigger these associations.
So if you would like to create a little oxytocin and who wouldn't here's what you need to do. The first thing you need to do is reproduce some of the physicality. That's what this blanket's for. This blanket is chosen scientifically sort of meaning that it's just the right feeling and softness because when I have it on me I get a feeling of softness and a little bit surrounded. It's actually sort of hugging me. Now if you think that being hugged by a soft blanket is so completely different than being hugged by a human being well of course it is but it's not that different because your body is an association machine. And when you associate the feeling of wow that is soft and warm and feels good on my body it's going to trigger some of the same chemistry and mental processes just by memory and association of the real thing.
So some of it's physical. There were tests of little monkey babies that didn't have mothers and if they gave them a warm water bottle they actually were pretty happy because just the physical warm water bottle felt sort of like a person felt or like a mommy. So reproduce the physical comfort of a human hug. So you might want to get, you might want to be near the fireplace if you have a pet who's good at snuggling. Well put on a blanket, sit by the fireplace, get on your comfortable rug, spoon with your big old dog or your cat on your chest. And these feelings are similar enough to things that you feel when you're with a real person that it can trigger them at least partially.
And then the other thing you want to do is you want to manage your mental shelf space and put things on it that create oxytocin and make sure that there's no space on the mental shelf for any bad thoughts to get in to work against it. So if you just don't bother managing what you're thinking well thoughts will just sort of occur to you in a semi random way and some of them will be bad. So don't do that.
So once you're in your soft comfortable warm place hugging your cat or dog or whatever you're doing, this assumes you don't actually have a human that you can be hugging, then close your eyes and think about the person you most want to hug. Put yourself in this situation. Now here's the trick. Run through all five senses in order. Say to yourself okay I can visualize what that looks like. That's your eyes. I can smell it, you know the perfume the scent. I can feel it. And you're just in your imagination but you're also feeling your soft light, the fire, your pet perhaps. Maybe you've got that. Maybe you've got a body pillow. By the way if you haven't tried a body pillow you should because it's almost disturbing how good it feels. So if you have one try that.
So imagine if you will and fill up your mental space with just thoughts where you cycle through all of your sensations. You know your hearing, your touch, your scent, your taste if it makes sense if there's something that you often would eat or taste with this person. So you just run through it and you make sure that you're concentrating as much as possible on the thought of what it feels like to be with that one you would most like to cuddle. It works best if it's somebody that you have an actual relationship with or you can remember it and you have good feelings about it. Not something you broke up with ideally but you have something. There's only positive.
So I will be thinking of Christina as I often do while I'm hugging my pillow. And of course it's the rest of you. I know how hard it is for all of you but I want you to take a moment to feel sorry for me. Not only can I not be with my fiancée but by terrible luck she is the most attractive human being in the multiverse. Now it'd probably be easier not to see her if she were not so darn lovely and if I didn't love her so much and if she were not so incredibly attractive but that's my personal hell. But I do get to spend time with you. That's not nothing.
And tonight when you go drifting off you're gonna remember the oxytocin trick and you're gonna feel almost like a tingle. You're gonna feel, some of you not all of you and not all the time but some of you are going to feel it when you get in the zone and you can feel the warmth. Yeah you're just comfortable and you're thinking about that person you most want to hug and you feel like a little tingle. It'll be like a little almost like a blush that comes across some part of your body. It could be differe
Context —
nt. Everybody's a little different. So you might feel a little surge in your head or your neck. You might have a little tingle on your arms. But that's how you know you're in the zone. And tonight you're gonna have one of the best sleeps of your life and you wake up feeling a little bit better than normal. You might not know why but it's a little thing called oxytocin. Have a great night. I'll se…
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