Back to episode — Episode 905 Scott Adams - Swaddle in Place. Come Learn a Useful Trick With Me.
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ever had much trust in models. And Bret Hume, I'm paraphrasing, but basically Bret Hume said, "Why are you telling us now?" Because you seemed pretty confident not too long ago. But now you don't trust models. And here's what I find funny about that. The reason Fauci says he doesn't trust the models is that they're only as good as the assumptions you put in them. Is that wrong? Is Fauci wrong tha…
← Previous segment →e in our history where so many of us took a time out and just stopped working and sort of had time to think about things. Now you think to yourself, well that's not a big deal. I mean we often take vacations and we take the weekend off. It's not that big a deal that we have time to think about things. But here's what's different. Because of the restrictions placed on all of our lives and the economic impact, etc., almost everybody had to rethink from the ground up everything they do. You had to rethink how you eat, how you get food. You had to rethink your social life. You had to rethink travel. You had to rethink cleaning. You had to rethink shipping. You had to rethink your job and every part of your job. You had to rethink education, family structure, who's babysitting. All of it. All of it had to be rethought.
Now here's my positive spin on this. I think that that process makes people realize there's just a ton of stuff that needs to be better. From, you know, how many people realize that they could get more work done by not commuting? Yeah, just to pick one simple example. And I've got a feeling that people saw different ways to do things. They saw red tape being cut. They saw people doing things faster than they thought. They saw innovation. They saw people stepping up. And everybody had to rethink from scratch, how can I do this job I had been doing? What's the smarter way to do this now that meets all these different requirements? And I think what's going to happen, and maybe we'll never be able to measure it, but I think that there's going to be a systems innovation surge. And when I say systems, I mean the system of how do you travel to work, the system of how do you go to school, the system of the workplace, how do you organize it, and everything like that. So I think people are going to fundamentally rethink all of our systems. And as you know, I'm the biggest proponent of making sure you've got good systems. And it could be really gigantic in terms of its long-term impact simply the fact that our creativity was challenged and this concentrated way. So it'll take a while for those benefits to work their way through the system, but I think it could be really big.
I was trying to think of all the things that will be different after we get back to work. Certainly the work-at-home thing. I think the argument for self-driving cars just got way stronger. As I often say, persuasion is not just about how good your argument is. It's also about getting people's attention. So the things that people think about the most, they irrationally think are the important things because they're thinking about it. So if you make somebody think about something a lot, it will become important to them when it wasn't before.
So here's my point on that. Because a lot of attention will be put on the natural death rate from driving only because we have this weird experiment where people stopped driving for a while. So you can actually really see in concrete terms how many people did not die because we weren't all in traffic. And I think what that's going to do is it's going to push people toward thinking, wait a minute, we saved, I'm going to pick a number,
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I don't know what the real number is. People are going to say, are you telling me we saved twenty-five thousand lives by not driving? And then we can bank that savings and always save twenty-five thousand lives a year? Or for the full year maybe it's fifty thousand. Could we save fifty thousand lives a year just by having self-driving cars that would almost never crash? I mean if you did it right…
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