s like we've never seen before? Has there ever been a time in human history when the experts did so poorly in any one or two year period? I mean it was sort of unusually bad performance. You know maybe witch doctors or something if you go back further. But to my mind the complete collapse of expert credibility left us all on our own. And when you're on your own and the experts can't help you or you don't trust them to help you you just default to your team.

So what happened was the experts were the only thing that kept us from being complete team players. Like sometimes you'd say yeah like I'm a Democrat but I also believe in science and science says that nuclear power plants are okay. So even though that's the thing Republicans say you know the science allows me to connect with them on that one thing, right? But now once the experts are completely discredited—which is unfortunately where we are—then people just agree with their team because it's all they have left. Well might as well agree with my team now. Nobody thinks it through that way. I'm not saying that's a conscious decision but it's the default. If you can't trust the experts you trust your team. That may be a terrible idea but it's just what happens.

I saw an expert on AI, Ethan Mollick, did a series of tweets which I retweeted and it's definitely worth reading. This is one of those threads where if you read this thread you will just see the future. And I promise you you will see the future more accurately than the people who did not read the tweet. And basically the gist of it is that the public doesn't have any idea how fast AI is coming right now. Specifically for—he was talking about the creative jobs such as writing. Yeah. And he used this analogy which I approve of in this case. He said that people probably are imagining that the pace of AI is similar to the pace of microchips where it doubles every X period, right? So microchips—we're sort of acclimated to a certain level of improvement in technology that crosses all technology am I right? Everything that is from social media to microchips to everything else every year is better. It could be significantly better like 20 percent better, right? But 20 is nothing like what you're going to see, what we're already seeing in AI. AI is going to hockey stick. It's already in a hockey stick. So AI is not waiting for the hockey stick. It's in the hockey stick. It's in the total upswing. This is a short path to the singularity. Like if you were wondering when the singularity was going to happen the one thing you had to know is it was going to be nothing happening, nothing happening, nothing happening, nothing happening. It seems like a little is happening but barely nothing, barely nothing, barely nothing, barely nothing. Whole world changes.

All right if you don't know that's coming you better get ready for it. And that's what this will tell you. I've said before that predicting the future three years out is now impossible and that's never been true before. Even when you could be surprised by wars and shortages and stuff. Even with a war it still looked like a continuation of the world you knew. There just happened to be war, right? Three years from now nothing will be familiar. AI will change everything and there's nothing that can stop it. And it might be in one year—I mean that it's probably only the commercialization of it that makes it three years. Probably in one year it will already write better than all humans. In one year AI will write everything we want written because it will do it better and faster. You will still be able to write because you learned how. You just won't have a reason for it. There will never be a reason to write after about a year. Now think about that. Just think about that one thing. Writing could be obsolete in a year. That's a real thing. Writing by humans could be obsolete. And now it might turn into some version of editing.

So here's how I imagined I would write a Dilbert comic in a year from now. So roughly one to two to three years from now this is how I would write a Dilbert comic. I'd say all right Dilbert's talking to his boss. They're in the office. And show me a new angle that we haven't seen before. The first panel Dilbert says blah blah blah. Second panel the boss responds blah blah blah. And then the third panel add something funny. Put a punch line there. And then I'm going to walk away and that's going to be my entire job that day. Yeah in the future the only asset I will own for Dilbert is the rights to the IP. I will no longer be the only person who can make it. Basically you will be able to make your own Dilbert comics at home just by speaking to your AI. Hey make some Dilbert comics for me. No no make some Dilbert comics for me just on this topic. It'll be done. That's probably one year away. Now if you didn't know that was one year away you really don't know what's happening. It's coming. And it's not just art and writing that will change. It's everything. It's everything. The entire economy. Wars. I really—the three years it will be exciting. I hope it will be good.

Here's some more absurdities. The Hunter laptop. Hunter's activities when his father was vice president and even when he was between jobs still sort of amazingly being ignored by one half of the media. All right. Amazing absurdity is everywhere.

The whole Fetterman versus Oz thing. If you're making fun of conservatives for their—let's say their ableism is that what it'