m not selling what my opinion has right. It's just a mystery to me. I don't know. Anyway keep an eye on that.

I heard a theory about China. Two theories about China that spell its doom and maybe the United States' doom too. But let's talk about China. One of them is that they're already lying massively about their population decrease and that Chinese population is substantially smaller than what you thought it was because they've already constrained their population. And that when you do that you end up with way too many retired people compared to workers and it's just basically a time bomb and there's nothing they can do about it. So basically they would be doomed by demographics. That's one theory of why China is doomed.

Number two there's a theory that the main thing that makes any country look successful is that they're overspending on infrastructure because they need it. And that when Japan overspent on infrastructure it looked like they were booming and they were going to eat our lunch. But when they stopped spending on infrastructure and you know got down to a normal level they had no GDP growth for years and years and years. And that the United States might suffer a similar thing where if government stops spending massively as it has been recently then maybe we don't have any real growth. Like it's all been government. So by that argument when China reaches its limit of—not a limit but when it does most of its infrastructure projects and then it slows down because it's done most of what it needs to do it's just in a new stuff mode—that there won't be enough government spending in China to keep the GDP humming and then it all falls apart. What do you think?

Well in economics there's one rule that I like to stick with which is people are terrible at predicting any of this stuff. And the Adams law of slow-moving disasters suggests that people will make whatever adjustments they can. So these are gigantic threats to China but I wouldn't say necessarily that that means they're doomed.

But then they have this third thing going on which is they're no longer trustworthy. And being not trustworthy means that people don't want to do business with you. And I think that's going to hurt more than it's hurting now.

You know that trick where we said Hillary Clinton was warning that the Democrats would try to steal the election—which is a signal that I'm sorry the Hillary warned that the Republicans would try to steal the next election which is really priming the environment for the Democrats to steal the election because you won't see it coming if they've made you think Republicans are going to do it. It's just a good way to cover your evil. And now NATO is blaming Russia of using the same trick. Russia is saying that Ukraine is planning to use a dirty bomb you know a nuclear dirty bomb. Whereas NATO says no no no that's what Russia accuses the other side of before they do the thing. So apparently that's a known strategy that Russia accuses you of what they're planning to do. So if Russia accuses you of a chemical weapons attack they are definitely going to use a chemical weapon. If they accuse you of using a dirty bomb or planning it they're definitely planning to use a dirty bomb. Now maybe to blame the other side. Maybe just because they want to use it. But I'd worry about this. It looks like an understood problem and NATO is all over it.

All right so back to my theme. My theme is that we've reached peak absurdity. Look at every story I talked about. There's a story that maybe Russia will nuke itself because Russia thinks Ukraine is part of Russia. So we're literally acting serious about the possibility that Russia will nuke itself. Personally I think that's absurd. I don't see any possibility of that. Now I also thought that Russia wouldn't invade so you have to put my opinion in context right. So my ability to predict what Putin will do has been demonstrated as low ability.

By the way do you know what my most frequent criticism is? I never admit when I'm wrong. I will submit to you that no one has admitted they're wrong more often or reliably than I have of any public figure. That's my claim. That literally of all public figures of all time nobody has ever spent more time admitting they were wrong in public than I have. Well if you think that's false name the other person. I think that the number of times I've admitted I'm wrong in public would be maybe 20 times. Those of you who have watched me since the beginning put a number on it if you can remember. Just roughly how many times do you think I've admitted I'm wrong in public? Twenty times? Somebody said 100. Yeah but you wouldn't disagree with my estimate of 20 would you? Like that's not crazy. Somebody says 10 or so. Between 20 and 100.

All right so whatever it is. If you're on YouTube you're not seeing the comments. The people on the Locals platform most of them have followed me for the longest time and they're not arguing with my estimate. They're just putting different numbers on it but they're not arguing with the main point that I've admitted I'm wrong a whole bunch of times. A whole bunch of times. Now if you say you're wrong more than anybody in the world or at least you know you're in the top one percent of that people will tell you you never admit you're wrong. And it's the most frustrating thing. It's the most frustrating thing. Because I don't mind being accused of things I've done. I mean that doesn't feel good but at least you feel you're in a just world. That makes sense. Well I did make that mistake. They are criticizing me okay right. So when people criticize me for being wrong about Russia invading I don't insult you right. I just say well yep you got me on that one. It's hard because you're a comedian and your audience has lots of hecklers. Maybe I'm not sure if people even see me as a comedian when I'm doing this stuff.

Okay Gino says you've recommended me to others because I've admitted when I'm wrong. The thing about admitting when you're wrong is that I don't think people understand that it makes you stronger. If people understood that they would do it. Now obviously there's a right and a wrong way to do it but if you do it fully. And by the way is there anything more surprising—I like to use Mike Cernovich for all of my examples. It's amazing how many situations he fits into as a teaching point. But so Mike very much did the whole you know the Pizzagate situation and then instead of like explai