iction that Putin would not attack I think was reasonable because it was based on a very good assumption that turned out to be true. I was just totally wrong but it was reasonable. And I think that that's part of how you judge my credibility. You see if I can predict right. But predicting well might be sixty percent correct, right? And when it's war I think that's even harder to predict.

Like how many people predicted that Russia would not win in Afghanistan and the United States would not win in Afghanistan? Well some did. Okay some did. Yeah actually probably a lot of people did. It's a bad example. But generally speaking you would all agree that war is unpredictable. So does it help you if I admit that all the information is not credible? There's definitely a path for Russia to turn it around and win everything and that is largely unpredictable. But still my prediction is not based on my love of Ukraine. Does that make sense? I'm not, I did have a Ukrainian flag in my profile but that was ironic. I was doing that as a joke.

Are you willing to accept at least on the Locals platform, are you willing to accept that it's not my love of Ukraine that's driving anything? Because I'm more just an observer really. But I will say, and I know this is not popular, it's entirely possible that the Biden administration's handling of the whole Ukraine-Russia thing will be looked at as one of the great American foreign successes. It doesn't look like it at the moment, would you agree? Doesn't look like it at the moment, right? Now if you're laughing I'm agreeing with you. At the moment that seems ridiculous, doesn't it? Would you all agree it looks ridiculous at the moment? I think we're all on that page.

But here's the part where it could change. If it turns out that we spend let's say 100 billion when it's all done and the net result was that Russia became no longer an adversary, they became weakened, and our energy industry picks up some of the slack that Russia leaves by not being a good partner, it's going to look like the United States played it right. It's going to look like the U.S. didn't lose people. Ukraine did. We spent 100 billion to get something we easily would have spent 100 billion on if you'd proposed it. For example if you said the United States, all right for 100 billion we'll guarantee that Russia goes from a top opponent to somewhere down in the ranks. We'll make them less dangerous and less important. Would that be worth 100 billion? It might be. If you could degrade China by as much as Russia will be degraded, would that be worth 100 billion dollars? I think so. That sounds like a bargain actually.

So I think the thing you're gonna have to wait for is how it all turns out. There's definitely one possibility, and I'm not sure what, I wouldn't put high odds on it necessarily, but there's one substantial possibility that this will look like one of the greatest foreign policy successes in the United States' history. It's equally possible it destroys the world. It's equally possible Ukraine is nothing but the worst thing we ever got into. Will you accept that it could go either way? But if you're ignoring that it could go wildly in both directions then I think that's not fair, right? Can I get a degree with this that it's possible it could go wildly in either direction? Wildly successful based on what we've already seen but also wildly, you know Russia's unpredictable, it could be wildly bad, right? Does that sound balanced or not? I feel like that's balanced.

All right. So I've got some pretty stuff now. Now you can see clearly the difference between livestream and tweeting, right? Everything I said after the first comments would not have been in a tweet. So on Twitter I'm a pro-Ukraine, I guess on Twitter I'd be a pro-Ukraine crazy person. It would look insane. But on livestream I look like a reasonable person who could be right, could be wrong, but it's not crazy.

All right. Did England win the war against our team Argentina? Yes they did. You sound very anti-Russia. Well that's correct. Somebody said I sound very anti-Russia. They are an adversary. Is it not coming through that I think our adversaries should be treated differently than our friends? Is that confusing? Yes you do. That is impressively, what's my imbalance that I'm too anti-Russia? Well to be clear I'm pro-Russian. Pro-Russians. I've said forever Russia should be our ally. Is there anybody who said more often than I have that Russia should be our ally and we should start treating them that way and see if we can make that work? Nobody said it more than I have. I've probably repeated that to the point where you're sick of it. Russia is a natural ally of the United States. Putin isn't necessarily. So I'm definitely not anti-Russia. I'm as pro-Russia as you could possibly be because I think the Russian people are kind of awesome. Kind of awesome. But they should be our allies. Just need different leadership.

How is Russia an adversary? They're an adversary in the sense that they have nuclear weapons pointed at us and they can make our work harder in some places. But to your point I'm more empathetic to your point than you think. Because my larger point is that there are not enough reasons to be adversaries. So you ask the right question. The correct question is are the problems we have with Russia enough to call them an adversary? And the answer is yes but I think it's not so much that we couldn't get rid of it. In other words it's something you can work with and you can manage that down because it's not that bad. Yeah we made them our enemies. I think there's something to that. I do think our actions change their behavior for sure. Yeah we share the International Space Station. You know that should be all you need to know, right? Like the fact that we're cooperating on the International Space Station. And I've said before that the pitch to Russia is to cooperate in space. See this is something that Trump could say because he's smart and other politicians just wouldn't say it. But Trump could say out loud hypothetically, you know let's think of the future. The thing that's going to be really important is military control of space and China is going to be up there. Do you think China is going to share their stuff with Russia because they like them? I don't think so. But I think we could work with Russia and say look we already cooperate on the International Space Station. Let's cooperate militarily in space and make that the reason to cooperate on Earth. To say all right the big picture is we have to be on the same side when space is the battleground. We have to. It would be insane for Russia and the United States to be on opposing sides in space. That would just be nuts. But China is going to go its own way and threatening or not it's going to be a force in space that needs to be dealt with. And we're going to be a lot better off if Russia is on the same team we are. A lot better off. So that's the pitch. Come together in the future.

All right. So it's insane to be so definitively anti-Russian as a reflex. Absolutely. But we should be open to bringing them onto the team. That should be the play, period. No matter what's happening, our stated intention should be to get them on our team. And by the way here's your persuasion lesson for the day. This is like the simplest persuasion lesson. If you want something to happen you have to state it directly. Just say what you want. And as unlikely as it is, putting it out there as what you want does make a difference. Because as soon as it's out there as a yes or no proposition then people will be drawn to it as a yes or no and then you've got something going. So even though everything is terrible with the United States and Russia, I would love to see our leader, whether it's Biden or anybody else, Trump, to say look in the long run Russia and the United States are going to be partners. And just say it as a fact. Don't say it's a wish. Don't say it's a desire. In the long run we're going to be on the same team.

Trump said that? I never heard him say that. I'm going to question that because I'm sure I would have seen that quote. But if there's a quote where Trump said anything like that I would love to see it. But the wisest leadership position would be you know we're going to be on the same team. There's no way around it. So let's start now. Now I don't think you could