make a move into Crimea, suck all of Russia's resources out of the disputed areas. Then you know then you can take over the disputed areas because they'll just have conscripts and crap there. And then also when in Crimea you're done.

So if they can bring the depleted Russian forces into Crimea because they would have to go, right? There's no way that Russia would allow Crimea to not be perfectly defended because he can't lose Crimea. But it looks like Ukraine is getting ready for a headshot. The headshot is Crimea, right? If Putin loses Crimea, like just loses it, that's pretty bad on his end. Like that would be hard for him to even stay in office without people really questioning his abilities at that point.

So you say the 30 to 50 tanks without air superiority would be meaningless? By themselves sure but it would help. So here's the question. You're missing the Poland role that's coming. Unbelievable. Unbelievable. If there's one thing that you're disappointed in me it's that I haven't seen that one person on Twitter who told you something you believe and that's unbelievable that I'm missing that.

Now I don't — let me say as clearly as possible. Wow that sounded like cringe on prayer. Let me be as clear as possible. I don't know what's going to happen in Ukraine. How would I know? I'm just saying you know as observers it looks like that's what they're gearing up to do. Now whatever's happening in Poland and Belarus and all that there's probably a hundred things that I'm not taking into account but on the surface it looks like they're going to threaten Crimea, drain Russia into Crimea and then they'll have a better situation when the snow goes away. That's what I think.

And then maybe Russia is planning its own advance. So I would say after the snow melts it's a free-for-all. Would you agree with that? After the snow melts there's no way to know if Russia or Ukraine will have the advantage because they're both gearing up and we don't know who's gearing up better. There's no way to know. So all hell is going to break loose but it's unpredictable after this. So if it sounded like I predicted something I didn't.

All right I'm gonna eat some more crow today for those of you who like to see me be wrong. Here's what I think a proper apology should include. It's never enough to just apologize, is it? An apology should come with — you know the harm you did. First the apology that you acknowledge the harm you did. But then you've got to do the third thing and the third thing is the hard thing. The third thing is you have to create a plan so you don't do it again. Or at least you have to tell people what you're going to do differently so you will not make that same mistake again.

So I did a deep dive on the people who got the pandemic stuff right and I learned much more about where I got it wrong. And with your indulgence I would like to take some moment to beat myself up for missing some really obvious signals. Really obvious signals that you did not miss.

All right so this is what I've learned. So I've talked to quite a few people about how they got the right answer when I got all the wrong answers. And here's what I learned. So this was roughly the decision tree that we were dealing with. So the question was — so the young people and the old people I think we all agree have a different risk factor. So in the but individually it was the same layout just different risk factors.

So you would look at the risk of the shot itself and when they did they said oh that is greater than the risk of COVID death which is practically nothing. Would you all agree so far? The risk of dying of COVID even really early on, well before the so-called vaccinations were available, we really knew that for most people the risk of death was vanishingly small. Agree?

So in that case the risk of the shot would certainly for the young people would be greater than the risk of dying of COVID. And then that's the end of the conversation. So it's just the risk of the shot versus the risk of the COVID death. And then if that's bigger you're done. So a lot of people correctly looked at the data. They did their own research and they looked at the numbers. Even the pharma numbers when they looked at them they said holy cow the risk of the shot for young people is definitely bigger than the risk of dying from the COVID itself. So I would be crazy to get the shot because that's a higher risk than the COVID. And then they were done. It's all you need to know.

And I'll tell you how they determine this risk in a minute. Is there anything I'm leaving out? I don't think so. But then there's a second part of the analysis that when I say young I mean people under 65. The people under 65 said their risk of getting the shot was greater than the risk of COVID and therefore I made a mistake. So even though I'm in the 65 and older category because the young people did the research they felt that the risk of the shot is greater than risk of COVID. I made