Back to episode — Episode 2269 Scott Adams - CWSA 10/22/23
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ur head in that situation. It definitely makes me feel, has anybody had this feeling this week that I'd have moments where I'm just petting my dog and completely relaxed, and then I would think about how bad it is in the Middle East and other places and I'd feel kind of guilty? And I was also feeling like maybe it won't last. I feel like my peace is not going to last. It feels like all of this is…
← Previous segment →he taxes on Israelis. I don't think Israelis should be taxed to take care of the Palestinians. That's too far under the current circumstance. Before maybe it was more of a conversation. Before, but now nope. I would say complete divorce and make it permanent. That would be my take on that. And I definitely wouldn't open the border to let anybody come in and work ever again. Wouldn't do that just because of the risk.
Let's see. Let's also talk about what's going to happen next. I like to use what I call the movie script prediction method. I've talked about this many times. It's the idea that reality follows movies and movies have this three-act scenario. And the key act is the third act where the heroes have an unsolvable problem. That's where we are. Israel has an unsolvable problem from a movie script perspective. That is to say, if they don't go in with a ground attack, that would be like losing because it would just leave Hamas intact. They would reconstitute someday. They come back and attack. So they can't do nothing. They don't have an option of not doing a ground attack. But if they do the ground attack, it's guaranteed to have unacceptable losses on civilians. And you can guarantee that those unacceptable losses will be magnified forever to become a stain on Israel's reputation that will hurt them in different ways as much as if they did or didn't do the ground assault.
So they have two ways to go and they're both losing directions. Don't do a ground assault, you definitely lose. Do a ground assault, there'll definitely be too many civilian deaths and you lose. So they only have two choices and they're both guaranteed loss. Do you agree so far? That's what the third act looks like. No matter what you do, it's all bad. You don't have any path to victory.
So how does a movie get resolved when the third act presents an impossibility to the hero? Well, it's always the same way. Some clever solution that was not obvious to the viewers of the movie. That's what makes it fun to watch. But in the real world that's also what happens. It's going to be a third option. And here's what I predict. I predict the third option. The third option is that Israel shows the world the most clever way to handle this situation, like so clever it becomes a standard for this kind of warfare for the rest of time.
Here's what I don't think they're going to do: knock on doors and get IED and booby trapped and take huge losses. I don't think that's going to happen. Here's what I think. I think that they're getting super active, the Israelis and allies, and figuring out technical solutions to Hamas. And that would include, some people have suggested ideas. One would be to filter the good people out of the Hamas-controlled areas, which is happening. I call it the filter fence. The filter fence is where you let all the good people out so that all that's left is the people who want to be there for whatever reason, and then you just turn it into a prison. Now if you make the area small enough, if you can chew away at the edges, then it's easier to control the entire perimeter of let's say a little piece of Northern Gaza. Way easier than trying to control the entire perimeter.
Now there's still tunneling and paragliding and there are ways they can get out, but if you are super serious about putting a permanent drone army
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in the air over it, you could probably turn it into a technological prison where if anybody gets out, drone is activated and hunts them down and just kills them where they're running. You could probably come up with some technical solutions for identifying tunnels that we've not seen before. You want to hear the most low-tech idea I ever had? You take a Roomba, one of those little vacuum cleaner…
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