ng the president's Air Force One just the other day or today or something.

So you got video you know massive video you got sensors you got the most credible people some of them are not but you have plenty of credible people with similar stories putting their careers and even suppose risking jail if they lied to Congress.

So now what are the odds that given all of that evidence what are the odds that it's a real something versus total nothing? Now that I've laid out the two possibilities which one do you go for? The one with tons of credible evidence or the it's all total BS?

Here's how you decide. If it turned out to be an entity of some kind that's non-human how would you rank that in terms of likeliness? Wouldn't you say that would be the most extraordinary thing that ever happened in the history of humankind? Is that fair? The most extraordinary thing. Now you could argue that all of the religions started with an angel so you know you could say those were more extraordinary but we don't verify those. But suppose we could verify it with science you know say someday we're just talking to the alien. All right what are the odds that'll happen? I would say that is the longest odds of any possibility in the world.

But what about the other one? What if the other possibility is even less likely than that? So what are the likelihood of all those witnesses under oath credible people for decades with sensor readings that are the same with video that looks the same with photographs that kind of look the same four decades? What are the odds that that's nearly 100%? Do you know why? There's a very easy there's a very simple reason why. Do you know what it is? Because all of that is ordinary and common. Everything I described is ordinary and common in our daily experience.

Has anybody ever lied under oath? Yes. Has there ever been multiple people who were judged credible who later you found out were lying? Yeah all the time. All the time. Have you read the news? Pick up the news you can find multiple credible people elected officials who are telling you that the president led an insurrection. Did that happen? No it didn't. It didn't happen. Are they saying it under oath? Sure. Are they risking their reputations? Yes. Are they otherwise credible sane people? Yes I mean to the extent that a politician can be credible.

So and what about the video? Has there ever been lots of video of something that didn't exist? I know ask Bigfoot ask the Loch Ness monster. How about ask every ghost that's ever been photographed? Yes yes we have a long history of having lots of photographic records including video of things that we could be pretty sure never existed.

How about all the sensor readings on the radar? Is it possible the sensors could have picked up something multiple sensors reported by multiple people and it's all like has a similar quality? Yes totally normal that they would all be wrong and thinking they're seeing something that they're not.

What's the real answer? I don't know. I can think of lots of reasons. Reason number one they're making it up. I