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MainContent Politics as Persuasion

Back to episode — Episode 2442 CWSA 04/12/24

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Now, the answers I've seen are that they're making the deadly virus so that they would be better prepared if somebody else made a deadly virus. Does that sound real? Because you could do that with everything. You could have a little laboratory coming up with every damn thing that could go wrong just so you're ready in case somebody else does it. No, no, that's not believable. That sounds like tota…

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sy. And so Iran is saying that, you know, hey, that's like our own territory, so we're going to have to respond. And the intel people think that if it's going to happen, it's going to happen in the next few days.

Here's what I think. I think that Israel is getting the Trumpian benefit of unpredictability. And what I mean by that is when Hamas did their attack on Israel, I heard reports some of them thought they were going to take over Israel. That sounds crazy to me. But I think they assumed, I'm just observing it like everybody else, it seems to me that Hamas must have assumed that Israel's response to the attack would be somewhat similar to how they've responded to other attacks in other words. There would be some proportional response, and maybe a thousand Hamas people get killed, but they still have 29,000 left over and they just start over. But instead Israel called their bluff, took Gaza away from them forever, destroyed their civilization, and it's never coming back. Now, do you think they expected that? Nope.

And what did that buy Israel as a permanent asset? Trumpian unpredictability. Now Iran has a new situation they've never seen before, which is always before they could sort of predict if we do this they'll probably do something that's similar. Not anymore. In fact, I'll go further. If Israel ever intended to take out the leadership of Iran, all they need is for Iran to make an attack on the homeland or just do something provocative even if it's not on Israel proper. Israel just needs a reason, and they're going to take out the Ayatollah. Now, in any other situation, could they take out the Ayatollah? Nope, nope. Only this one. Only this one. Because they said we're going to kill everybody who is responsible. Who else was responsible? The Iranian leadership. I mean, that's what we're told. I mean, I can't, I don't have direct reporting, but everybody seems to think that Iranian leadership was behind the Hamas attack. Israel said directly we're going to kill every one of them. That would include the Iranian leadership. Just give them a reason.

This is the only time in history that I can think of that if Israel literally took out the entire leadership, they could get away with it. Now, you say to yourself, not guaranteed. You're right. It's not guaranteed. Nothing's guaranteed. It's war. It's a war for existence. Nothing's guaranteed. But there has never been a more ideal time for Israel to end the risk of the Iranians nuking them in the future than right now. All they have to do is say, look, we told you we were going to get everybody involved. We took out the head of the snake. And by the way, we have no quarrel whatsoever with even the Iranian military. We have no quarrel. We only wanted the people who are behind the planning and execution of this attack. And I'm sorry it just happened to include the Ayatollah and all of his generals. So they're gone now. We'd love to help you, Iran, recover. We'd love to bring you into the fold, make you part of the Abraham Accords plus someday. But at the moment we are completely unpredictable, and anything you thought we wouldn't do last year we will do this year. This year is not last year. Whatever you think might be our proportional response, stop thinking that. There's no limit to our proportional response, meaning it's not going to be proportional.

That, ladies and gentlemen, is the Trump premium. Trump taught you that being predictable basically dooms you. Being predictable dooms you because you can't negotiate and you can't frighten. Everybody knows what's going to happen. So you have to create a realistic frame that if you hit us we might take you out completely. And you have to set a precedent because if you haven't done it in the real world, it's just talk. Now Gaza is being basically disappeared. Do you think there's anybody in Iran who is watching what's happening in Gaza and says to them, I think those Israelis are in the mood to be proportional? No, no, they are not in the mood to be proportional. They're certainly going to be rational, but they're not going to be proportional. They're not in the mood, and they don't need to be. They just don't need to be.

So I'm not recommending it, and I'm not predicting it. I'm just saying Iran needs to understand that if they did something serious to Israel and Israel in response took out their entire leadership, the world would yawn. The world would yawn. That's never been the case before, and it may never be again. There may never be another time you could do this and get away with it. And by the way, I don't know if they could get away with it, but all the other times they definitely couldn't. You know, a year ago, do you think they could have taken out the Iranian leadership? No, absolutely not. But what if they did it today? Today is a coin flip. Today you would actually say, you know what, we might disagree, too aggressive. And then other people would say, no, that was just aggressive enough. You would never get that conversation any other time. And by the way, that benefit will decrease every day. So every day that Israel doesn't take out Iranian leadership is going to be harder tomorrow.

So the ideal situation for Israel, depending on how aggressive they're feeling, is that Iran does strike back. If Iran strikes back and they make it a serious strike, all bets are off. So that's how you negotiate. I don't know if I've mentioned that Netanyahu is smart. When you're dealing with a leader that smart, I mean, and I'm talking just raw intelligence, you know, forget about policies and preferences and who's left and who's right. If you have that much raw computing power on one side, I would be afraid of that. That's a lot of raw computing power, and I wouldn't want to be on the other team.

So I remind you I don't support Israel anymore because the ADL has targeted me. And yes, of course I know the ADL doesn't work for Israel. Of course I know they're independent. But it's not my problem. I can't solve their problem. My problem is, hey, if your friend attacks me, that's how it works, right? If you could stop your friend from attacking me and you don't do it, there we are, right? Don't expect me to solve your problem. I'm not going to solve your problem. So the problem is the ADL, and so I don't support Israel because of that. I don't think we should fund them a single penny. Not a penny. And that's a little bit personal in my case.

All right. Yeah, right. So I'm looking at a comment. If Israel took out the Iranian leadership, the Arab world would be so pretend mad at least. Before they to the they've ever seen in their entire life. We've now, and by the way, have I made my case? You got a little glitch. That's interesting. Might have had a glitch. We're back.

All right. I was just telling you that this is probably the best livestream you've ever seen, maybe ever will. But can you give me a fact check on this? Give me a fact check. It's my belief that I've proven I run the simulation based on today's headlines. Yes or no? Does it seem to you like all the news was what I wanted it to be today? Now, if you're new to me, I'm always joking about this. Or am I? I've never seen the news so perfectly tailored to everything that I've already told you and believe and reveals the endgame. I've never seen anything like this. Today is today is just lit. Am I wrong? I mean, I'm having like a moment here. Like before the show, my moment was I've never seen the news so right, so accurate and having the right context, etc. So quite remarkable. This is quite a day. I mean, this is really a remarkable day. I don't know if everybody

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's going to see it that way. I've never seen anything like it. This is the day of all days in the news. Never seen anything like it. All right, I'm going to end the non-subscription platforms. So bye to YouTube, bye to Rumble, bye to X. I'll be talking to the folks here on Locals. I understand there's some kind of weird time lag, so I'm going to say goodbye, but I think I have to wait a little bi…

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