because of abortion but because they do it in other countries as well no matter what the abortion laws are. So weak men and single women tend to vote Democratic here and left in other countries. Why is that? Well it seems to be evolutionary and it seems to go like this. If you feel personally weak then you're worried about what's in your immediate environment. Does that make sense? That makes sense, right? If you feel personally vulnerable you barely can walk outside because your environment is dangerous. So the first thing that you'd want to fix is your environment when you walk outside. So you'd want to make sure nobody had guns and you'd want to make sure all the poor people got fed so they don't need to rob you. And you would make a bunch of assumptions that might lean left.

If you are Republican and you're either a strong man or a married woman who would feel like she has some protection, you would say I don't need the government to protect me on my own property because I'm married and I've got a strong husband. I've got the protection. But I am worried about the country. So Republicans and strong men and married women tend to be more concerned about people coming across the border. And women seem to be more concerned about what's in their immediate environment in terms of what they should be afraid of. So that feels to me like there's something to it. I don't know if they've got exactly the right genetic explanation, but I do feel it can't be a coincidence that people who feel weak and unprotected are looking for the government to immediately give them some protection. Makes sense.

We've got some new economic reports. I'm seeing them described in different ways. Julia Pollock said the jobs report is very much in line with expectations. It's all boring. Everything's sort of in the general area that we thought it would be, a little bit more, a little bit less. I think there was another job report that got the July job report revised down again, of course. Anyway, I think I would describe the report as somewhat anemic. So somewhat expected but anemic, which means that we'll probably get a rate cut, which would be good for the stock market. But don't make any investments because of me. I'm not really good at investment advice.

How many of you have heard of a historian who predicts the outcome of elections in the United States and he's been right pretty much every time? His name is Allan Lichtman and he's got this 13 true or false questions that will tell you who's going to get elected. And he says right now that eight and five go in favor of Harris. So that his thing, which has never been wrong, is saying there's a strong signal for Harris to get elected. Do you believe it? He's got 13 questions. It's been right every time. Eight and five go for Harris so she'll get elected. Do you have any questions about that? Maybe the questions would be, what are those 13 questions? Have you ever heard the 13 questions? And if I told you the 13 questions do you think you would still be confident that this is a good prediction method? Let's find out.

Here are the things that would be positive for the incumbent. Let's call it Kamala the incumbent. If the White House party gains seats in the House in the midterm. All right, so that didn't happen. So that would be negative to the White House party in office. The incumbent president is running. Well I would say that's not the case. It was when it was Biden but it's not the case now. So that would be two that I would score against them. I believe Allan Lichtman scored this for Harris because she would be like the incumbent. I say she's not the incumbent. The polls changed immediately as soon as she got in. Her mix of people who supported her changed. Her policies, she says they're going to be different. So I don't think she's the incumbent. And beyond that I think that Trump was a little bit of an incumbent once too. So I don't think this one applies and if it does apply it leans in my opinion toward Trump.

Next one is the White House party avoided a primary. So the reason behind this is if they avoided a primary it's because their candidate was so strong. Did the Democrats avoid a primary? Yes. Was it be