cause their candidate is so strong? No. They gamed the system. So you can't give this one to Harris and say she was so strong we didn't even need a primary. Really? No, that didn't happen. She went in despite being weak. So this one doesn't count.

How about a third party candidate is running? So that would be usually good for the one who was in the White House, except the only third party candidate with any weight just decided to join the Trump team. So how do you weigh this? Do you say RFK Jr. counts as a benefit for Harris when he joined the Trump team? No. This one is completely irrelevant in this weird situation.

How about the short-term economy is strong? Is it? It depends who you ask. In my opinion it's weak, but I know that other people, Democrats, would say oh it's pretty strong right now. No, it's completely weak. If you talk to people they'll say everything costs too much and it's not easy to get a job. That sounds weak. Things are too expensive and you can't get a job. So that one looks like it goes Trump's way.

How about the growth of the long-term economy has been as strong as the last two terms? Well again this is a weird one because the pandemic, but it doesn't look like our growth is impressive. So I don't think that works in their favor.

If the White House has enacted major national policy changes that would go in favor of the White House. But shouldn't you say that the major national policy changes are popular? Because we have a national policy change on Ukraine that were balls to the wall and it's unpopular. We have support for Israel that's pretty mixed. And then there's that infrastructure thing that nobody's seen anything happen from. So I don't really think there's anything positive that was a major national policy change. So that doesn't seem to apply.

How about there's no social unrest? Oh I don't know. What do you call January 6ers being locked up and complete division in the country and some people are asking for reparations and some people are looking for a new country to move to? I would say there's plenty of social unrest but it's not on the streets because Republicans get hunted so they can't be on the streets. So that seems not applicable.

There is no scandal in the White House. What are you talking about? The whole Ukraine, Hunter Biden, and the whole cover-up, the whole cover-up of Biden's cognitive ability. These are gigantic scandals. Gigantic scandals. And I t