h these numbers. It could be that they're only comparing people who are registered one way or the other which you know I would need more detail to know if that's what's happening. But let's say that the numbers are true. What would that suggest would be the likely vote? If there really are more Republicans registered than Democrats, who would win the not the electoral vote but the overall national vote? Should be the one who's got the most people registered because that's what it's been before. You know when there were more Democrats and sure enough they won the national vote even when they lost the Electoral College.

So what would be the result hypothetically if these numbers held and let's say independents, we don't know this but let's say independents match to these ratios. I think independents are going to be far more for Trump but let's say it's just this much. That would suggest a landslide, right? If Trump wins the popular vote nationwide the electoral vote is a landslide. Now I need somebody smart to tell me I'm wrong about that but I think I'm right.

So you've got the national polls which depending on how they weight things and how they ask the question and some assumptions that they make when they collect their data, they look a little sketchy don't they? Now the national polls sometimes say Kamala ahead sometimes by a lot, sometimes they say Trump's ahead sometimes by a good amount. So the national polls appear to be completely funky and unreliable at this moment.

But do you think that we can accurately count how many people have registered as Republicans versus Democrats? Yes, because that doesn't require an assumption and it doesn't require any... there's not much room for weasel. It's probably just data that you're either registered or you're not. So if you're going to believe one, what would be more believable? That the Republican registrations have surged which would indicate a landslide for Trump or that the individual polls which we've never trusted in the past and always seem to get mysteriously accurate right toward the election sort of in October.

Do you know what the October surprise is yet? One of them. There's probably going to be lots of them. Have you figured out the October surprise? Well if this is true, the Republican registrations have now outnumbered Democrat registrations, this election is over in terms of voting. You know I'm going to agree with Eric Weinstein that we don't know if Trump will become president because the bad actors, it looks like there's no limits to what they'd be willing to do and I mean actually no limits. So I think Trump probably has a dominant position and it looks like a landslide if nothing changes. But remember there are going to be lots of changes.

So here's what I think will be your October surprise. Now can't guarantee it, can't guarantee it, but the pollsters are all going to be showing a landslide by election day. Because if they don't, if they don't then next election you're going to say there was a landslide and you weren't even close. Why should we listen to you again? Why should we pay you for your stuff? Why should we ever report what you said again? So it becomes really important for the pollsters to end up in the top five, top ten. So if they're way off a few weeks before election, which is what October... the October surprise is going to be the polls. Now you knew it was going to happen but here's the surprise. It's going to be bigger than you thought. I think the surprise is going to be the degree of pollster shenanigans that are happening in September are beyond what you imagined was possible. That's what I think will be your surprise. Now I could be wrong, right? It'd be easy to be wrong about this.

But when you see the people on the streets, I just saw another person on the street thing. They're asking just young people who they supported. It seems to be Trump every time somebody goes on the street. And even if maybe it was always close to half and half, the Trump supporters who are young will say it out loud with no embarrassment whatsoever as if it's the cooler thing to do now. And once you see how many 20-somethings are just yelling Trump into the camera so happy to support him, perfectly happy that they're seen by their fellow students, seen by whoever is going to see the video, there's nothing holding it back. Trump. And I think it's because eating the dogs, eating the cats is what made him popular with young people. Well plus the assassination attempt was remarkable, the fight fight fight part. But the cats and the dogs thing is still trending on TikTok and when you see people's reaction to him and you see the number of people who are still dancing to that, something's happening. Something big's happening.

All right. Of course you know the big news is Israel took out the head of Hezbollah with a gigantic set of bombs. Bunker busters I guess. Yes. So here's what happened. See how impressed you are by this. So Hezbollah has reportedly, I don't know, 100,000 rockets that could be fired at Israel. If they were to fire them all at the same time or in big waves then the Iron Dome would have a tough time getting them all just because of numbers. So really the threat that Hezbollah had was that we'll fire them in big waves at the same time. It wasn't really a risk if they did one here or there. The Iron Dome could get them and chances are it wasn't going to hit anything anyway.

So what do you think it takes for Hezbollah to fire all of their stuff at the same time? Well coordination obviously. Coordination. And what does that take? Well some kind of communication. And what does that take? Well you're going to have to use some kind of digital communication. And apparently because they thought the cell phones could be too easily tracked by Israel they had moved to pagers and walkie-talkies. Which as you know Israel found a way to make explody.

So once all their pagers and walkie-talkies exploded, what's next? Well the first thing that you might not realize is that they may have lost their ability to coordinate an attack. Because if they don't do it all at the same time they're just wasting their missiles. Send up three missiles, Israel knocks down three missiles and you're done. So if you can't shoot them all at the same time you've lost your only weapon. The one that anybody's worried about. So I can't say for sure that they lost that ability but they haven't launched a big wave of missiles and they did lose all of their leadership.

And the last guy that was left said to himself, huh I'm going to have to figure out how to rebuild and get things coordinated again but I better not use any digital means. So send out the runners and get the third level down of commanders because the other ones have all been killed and we'll meet in my command bunker. Yeah we're whatever's left of the leadership of Hezbollah after most of it's already been killed. We're going to meet in my well-known command bunker. My well-known, well-identified command bunker. Knowing that there are obviously spies working because without the spies Israel would not have been able to kill all of the top guys. Commander already wherever they were they go