olls which makes money for them so they can eat and then they just starve to death because they know the polls are no good? Oh darn I guess I'll have to starve to death, sorry family we're all going to die. No they don't. They adjust their assumptions.

So they say, huh we think that a few more Republicans might be avoiding the phone so we're going to add a little fudge factor for Republicans. And we think that we're not getting through to the Democrats between 23 and 25 so we'll put in a little fudge factor for them because we know that what they probably would say so we'll put in a little assumption for that. And when they're done, because the election is so close anyway, it's like always 1% away, when they're done their result is 100% based on their assumptions and not on the data.

How many of you understand that point? That the polling results are based on the assumptions the pollsters make. It's not based on the data because they know the data doesn't work. So if you've got data that you know is bad but you still have to produce a result what do you do? You change the assumptions until the result looks like something that people expected. How do you make it look like something that people expected? You make the election really close because that's what everybody expected. So guess what? All the polls are close because it's just the assumptions that they monitor.

Now I am very aware that if you have not worked in the field of doing predictive stuff that you think I'm exaggerating and that you think okay it's mostly the data but I get what you're saying Scott you know you could be off 10% or something because of some assumption. No that's not what I'm saying. I'm saying you could make Harris up by 10 or Trump up by 10 just by your assumptions. It's totally the assumption. It's only the assumption that's the only thing that's driving the output.

Now you want to talk about climate models? Climate models same thing. The reason there are 100 climate models is they use different assumptions and the data is all suspicious and we're not sure they're measuring the temperature right and every three days you hear a new story about some major variable that should have been in there that wasn't. The results of models are the assumptions. It's not the data. It can't be. There's no logical way it could be. We don't have good data for that. But instead of producing nothing and the scientists would say we'd love to be funded for our big climate change study, would love to get some funding but we have no data, that wouldn't work. So they've got data that they can't rely on but they have to have good data to get funding. What are you going to do? You need good data to get funding and you got to get that funding to save the world but you can't do it with bad data. So I've got an idea. Why don't I change my assumption about how much the clouds absorb? Suddenly money is falling from the sky with the rain from the clouds.

So that's how predictions are made. Predictions are made by manipulating assumptions until the output matches what you think you can sell to the recipients of the report. That's it. Now everybody who's been in this business knows I'm right. Some of you have been involved in prediction. You know you've done models for predicting. Watch the comments. See if anybody disagrees with what I just said. You won't see one. Everybody who's done this work knows the assumptions are the output. And if you didn't know it you're finding it out now. It's a big old fake world you live in.

All right. I've got a question about bodily autonomy that I haven't seen. Now I want to remind you that my opinion about abortion and abortion rights is that I should not have an opinion that you should care about because I'm a boy and I don't have babies and I think women should have the primary responsibility not only for what the laws become but for their individual decisions within the law. Now having said that, so I'm taking myself out of the argument, but I have a curiosity about it. There's something that's sort of obviously missing and I just wonder why.

So if I were in the argument, which I'm not, and let's say I was anti-abortion or I wanted to limit it in some way, and again this is not my opinion this is speculative hypothetical stuff just going to make a point. If somebody came to me and said Scott why do you want to take away the bodily autonomy of the women who want to have abortions? I would say well define bodily autonomy. And then they'd say something like well it's being able to control your own body decisions etc. And I would say that's a really good point. How do you count the fetuses? Well the pro-abortion people would say well they're not living people with rights etc. And I would say, if this were my opinion again I'm not describing my own opinion I'm describing an argument I haven't heard and I'm wondering why.

So if I were trying to make that argument I would say well I'm looking to add bodily autonomy to women not take it away because I count the bodies that are aborted. So I get that you're counting them not as being alive but I'm going the extra distance and saying not only do I want bodily autonomy in general wherever you can have it but I want the most of it. So what is the highest level of bodily autonomy? The highest level is that you would extend it to the fetuses even if you were debating whether they were alive or pre-alive or almost alive. So rather than debate the definition of life I would rather embrace your concept that bodily autonomy might be one of the top rights anybody should have. So I would extend it even into the gray area where you would disagree it's alive but many people would say it is alive and they would say that that's bodily autonomy. Don't kill me.

Now you don't have to ask the fetus if it wants to be killed because you can take that as an assumption it wants life and it wants this body to survive. When its brain is fully formed of course it would want that. And biologically since it's in the act of becoming a full person you could say that its biological intention is very clear. So if you were going to support limiting abortion and you came into the buzzsaw of bodily autonomy instead of being the a-hole who says I don't care about women you could be the person who says not only do