Back to episode — Episode 2687 CWSA 12/12/24
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in almost every possible way that a thing could be good for you. What percentage of the world would not do the thing that's universally good for everybody? What percent would not? Yeah, that's right. That's right. 27% is the exact number. A quarter of the country will get every question wrong. It doesn't matter what the question is, and this is the case. 73% of Americans drink coffee every day. So…
← Previous segment →will still be gas-powered cars, but it would be kind of like using a flip phone? Somebody's going to do it, but it'll be rare. I think so.
You know, if you had not listened to my live stream every day—and I don't know why you wouldn't—you wouldn't know that there's a breakthrough in battery technology just about every day. And if we keep having breakthroughs in batteries, it kind of guarantees that all of your cars are going to be electric, because the economics are all just moving in one direction. It's not like gas is getting that much cheaper, but electricity, it might if we build enough nuclear power plants and do that kind of stuff.
But I'd like to use this as an example of an investment approach. So I don't know if I've heard anybody talk about this investment approach. Now, I don't give investment advice, specific investment advice, so I'll just put this out as a hypothesis, but it's one I've used and it seems to work. It goes like this. If you're trying to pick winning companies, you're probably going to lose like 95% of the time. You might get lucky 5% of the time, but you're going to lose about 95% of the time. So in general, you should get an index fund and diversify and just let it do what it does.
But there's one thing I've been tracking for my entire life to see if it would be an investment opportunity, and there's one thing that appears to me to work way more than half of the time. And that is that when there's a one-time change in the economy, if you bet on the strongest company that's involved in that one-time change—like I mean one time ever, like will never happen again—then you could probably make money.
For example, in the early days of personal c
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omputers, there was only one time in human history when personal computers would go from nobody has one to everybody has one. That's only once in human history that'll happen. So if you were to find the strongest company in that domain, which would have been hard because a lot of them were coming and going, but if you'd put your money in, say, Dell or Apple, you probably would have had a winner, l…
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