Back to episode — Episode 2687 CWSA 12/12/24
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will still be gas-powered cars, but it would be kind of like using a flip phone? Somebody's going to do it, but it'll be rare. I think so. You know, if you had not listened to my live stream every day—and I don't know why you wouldn't—you wouldn't know that there's a breakthrough in battery technology just about every day. And if we keep having breakthroughs in batteries, it kind of guarantees th…
← Previous segment →omputers, there was only one time in human history when personal computers would go from nobody has one to everybody has one. That's only once in human history that'll happen. So if you were to find the strongest company in that domain, which would have been hard because a lot of them were coming and going, but if you'd put your money in, say, Dell or Apple, you probably would have had a winner, like a really big winner. Imagine if you put early money into Dell computers or Apple. Now if you'd put your early money into IBM, IBM got out of that business, but even the IBM stock did pretty well.
So then the cell phones came along. You know, well, first before there were smartphones there were just the small cell phones. And I worked for the phone company and I said to myself, huh, there will only be one time in human history when people go from their landlines to a handheld phone. So if you were to invest in any of those major phone companies that were rolling out cell phones, you would have made a lot of money. And probably two out of three of companies that you picked in that domain would have been winners.
Then there was the internet. I remember at the birth of the internet when it was called the World Wide Web and nobody even knew the words for it. I asked an engineer, what should I invest in to like get in on the bottom floor of this internet thing? It looks like it could be big. And the engineer said Cisco. And I said, what's that? He said, well, they make these things called network blah blah blah. And I didn't buy that stock. If I'd bought Netscape before you had ever heard of the word internet—literally, literally you would never even heard of it yet—do you know how much money I would have made on that one-time-ever change in society?
So then the smartphone comes along. You know, you could be forgiven if you didn't think it was going to be a hit because the first smartphones were terrible. But it was the one time in human history that we would move to smartphones. So if you bought Apple stock, boy, would you be happy.
These one-time changes. So that's what I see with electric vehicles and it's what I see with Tesla. So Tesla is the leading company in a thing that will happen only once in human history, which is gas automobiles will be dismissed in favor of electric. So I don't give investment advice, but I would point out that if you can find anything that's going to happen only once in human history and it's unavoidable and it's definitely going to happen, you probably have a two-out-of-three chance of picking a super winner out of the lot. It's not 100%, but it would go from a coin flip to two out of three, I think, pretty quickly.
All right. According to a study, climate change was greatly overestimated because oceans cool the Earth in more than one way. So one of the ways that apparently we did not realize until recently is that the ocean puts off sulfur gas produced by the marine life. I don't know if it's fish farting or what they're doing, but some kind of marine life puts off sulfur. And apparently that's a really powerful chemistry to put into the atmosphere because it produces a lot of cooling, more than you'd think, I guess.
Now, how many times have I read you a story about a major variable that had been missed in climate change, and now they have to put it in there? But now everything will be good. I mean, it was almost perfect, but now we made this little tweak even better. It feels to me that our confidence in the models—tell me if I'm wrong—the confidence the science had in their models when they had, oh, let's say 10 major variables completely wrong is exactly the same as their current confidence when they believe they've accurately added 10 more variables. And surprisingly, it didn't really change the model at all.
Now, if you know what to look for in terms of scams, this one couldn't be screaming any louder that the climate models are basically now—what I'm not saying, because I know I'll get quoted out of context—I'm not saying the Earth isn't warming. How would I know? And I'm not saying that humans have nothing to do with it. Again, how would I know? The only thing I know is what science tells me, and science is so lying about anything important that it's like nothing happened. It's as if science didn't even weigh in. Has no credibility whatsoever at this point.
So when I look at climate models and you see that they keep adding major variables—major variables like, oh, we didn't realize the sun was doing all this, and oh, the cloud cover, and oh, it turns out that the oceans in at least three different ways is more of a counteracting of heat than we thought. So if you ever see that the model worked when it was all completely different and amazingly it still works now after you've changed all the assumptions, that's one of two things that should have happened after 10 years of finding out we have major, major variable problems. Either they should have said, whoa, it looks like it's way less of a problem than we thought, or oh damn, this is a much bigger problem than we thought. We're going to be dead in six years, not 12. But what are the odds that you can change all the assumptions going into your model and the model stays the same for 20 years? Yeah, that's wild.
Those New Jersey drones, and I guess other places too, just gets more interesting. As you know, Senator Van Drew from New Jersey believes he has good sources that said the drones were being released every night from an Iranian mother ship parked off the coast. The Pentagon said, quote, there's no so-called mother ship launching drones toward the United States. And I believe I heard that Van Drew ha
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s doubled down and says that there are drones coming out of an Iranian ship. He believes his sources. I believe that Van Drew is probably getting cracked, meaning somebody is feeding him some lies so that he disgraces himself in public and becomes less electable because of it. So it feels like somebody's playing a dirty trick on him, but I can't be sure. It's just what it looks like. So here's wh…
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