Coffee With Scott Adams — Knowledge Archive May 24, 2026
Scott Adams Philosophy Archive
Search ideas
Episodes Episode #3011 Segments
NewsReaction AI & Technology

Back to episode — Episode 3011 CWSA 11/07/25

Context —

at apparently there's big tariffs on coffee from Brazil in particular, which is the biggest impact on us. So the tariffs are as high as 50%. And that's enough to basically just, you know, destroy Starbucks. I don't know if it will, but that's bad enough. So, it's a big impact on our economy and on our people and on our budgets. And tariffs, you know, you could call a tariff a tax. Rand Paul does a…

← Previous segment →

mbrella of that guy likes that stock. It might go up. So, maybe he's trying to drive up the stock. Do not do anything that I do financially. I do not give good financial advice. You should not follow my advice. If I thought my advice was better than other people financially, I'd tell you. I'm not shy. I'd tell you if it was better. It just isn't.

Um anyway, here are the shocking things. Uh that Elon believes that uh they're not going to have a way to get enough chips to do all the stuff, you know, their robots and cars and stuff that they need, and they might have to make their own. So, they're thinking about building a quote gigantic chip factory. What does gigantic mean in Elon's world? Because every time he does something, it's so big you can't even hold it in your head. Gigantic. And I think you said something about working with Intel. But it would make more sense to buy them, wouldn't it? Wouldn't it make more sense for Tesla just to buy a chip company? Then the part I wonder about is that um would we have the right skills in the United States to make the right kind of chips when no other country knows how to do it except you know Taiwan if Taiwan's the only place that knows how to make these chips? Are they going to help Tesla? Like why would they instead of just selling them the chips? So, I don't know where that goes, but I do trust that Elon's probably one of the few people in the world that could solve the not enough AI chips problem.

Elon also says the entire Earth can be powered by sustainable energy with tech that exists today. And then he talked about the Megapack battery storage plants. You know, whenever anybody says, "Uh, Scott, you fool. You're so behind the times when you don't understand that no matter how much solar power you have, Scott, did you know, and I know Scott, you look like an idiot, so you probably didn't know this, but I'll talk slowly so you understand, Scott, the sun is not out at night. Okay, I'm done, you fool. Like, how could you think this solar power is going to power the whole world when the sun isn't even out at night? You idiot. You fool. Get out of my house." That's what they usually say to me. But did you know there are things called batteries? Batteries. B A T T E R I E S. Batteries. It's a word you should learn. And apparently what they'll do is they will store energy. They'll actually store that energy all night long if you want if you got a big enough mega factory. So these Megapack mega factories um are a big part of the structure but also those might be as much you know for Tesla's own use. They will need these big factories for their own AI powering. But did you know that if you add in the Tesla power walls, those would be the big batteries that you could add to your private home, that they're also worked. I guess that's just part of it. So you could store things in your home battery and if you stored more than you wanted to use, you could donate that to the network if it were set to do that. Uh, I don't think it's quite set up to do exactly this, but couple of buttons and it's ready to go. Uh, so they can work together. There's already a million power walls installed. A million. He thinks big.

All right. So, they can work together as a virtual power plant. And uh, Elon also talked about the age of uh, permanent abundance. I don't know if he used those words, but that's what I meant. And he thinks that robots will basically provide all of our goods and services at what will approach zero cost over time and everybody will have everything. So poverty will be eliminated. Uh everybody will have enough food because the robots will just be out there tilling the fields as robots do and making us food. And eventually he wants to get the cost of a robot down to 20,000. Um, and here's what's interesting about this. In order for a lot of uh Elon's predictions to come right, you know, things about robots and things about power and things about cars and stuff and even things about interplanetary travel. In order for all of that stuff to work, or even any of it to work, he would have to understand human motivation and how people think and how they act and what they care about. Now, how does that fit with the common assumption that he's Asperger's or we don't use that anymore uh on the spectrum? This is this is what confuses me. How can you be on the spectrum and also be really good at humor, which he is, um and really good at figuring out human motivation, which he is. Those are pretty much as close as you can get to the opposite of being on the spectrum. Or does he compensate, not for the humor part, that's got to be natural, but does he compensate for um being different than other people by just learning how they think and just studying them like you study a maze and then you know how to get out of the maze. It's not your maze, you just studied it. So, I'm fascinated by that. You know, I've never I've never talked to him in person. It'll probably take me five minutes to figure out what's going on in person, but I only hear good things. I only hear good things. So, this is amazing.

Anyway, um but what I thought about while I was reading all these things that he's introducing to the world that he might be the first human being who could legitimately satisfy the political left and the political right. Now, he can't run for president because he wasn't born here, but he's really the only one because somehow he made most of the people on the right appreciate him because he helped Trump get elected. But then he also left under tremendous pressure by the left and but what he left too was this highly successful company that looks like it will solve the left's biggest concern, climate. Now, even if you say, "But climate is not a crisis, whatever," it's nonetheless true that he's doing exactly what the left would want somebody to do, which is build a bunch of electric solar plants and batteries and electric cars. Now, in the short run, you might argue, "But but but Scott, don't you know that they use more fossil fuels and regular fuels to build that stuff than they save?" I don't even know if that's true, but I do know that in the long run, you would get rid of those other sources and you could use the sun and then then everything that Elon's trying to do would come true. The left would be delighted even if there's no climate crisis. They'd be happy about it. And the right would be happy because they like his his general work hard, build things, America first. I mean, he's very he's very on point for the right. At the same time, he's very on point for the left. Name one other person in the world who is this perfectly suited for both the left and the right. Now, again, I don't think he's going to run for office. That'd be crazy. U if he did. Uh even, you know, he's not going to run for senator. That would be too small. And presidents out of reach because of the constitution. But boy, do I like him being involved just in general.

I guess his trillion dollar incentive package got approved by shareholders with a 75% vote. That means 25% thought it wasn't a good idea to have him properly incentivized. 25% thought it was a bad idea to give the most productive person in the history of the planet a little extra if and if he does a lot extra. A lot extra. You should see the terms of the deal for him to get a trillion dollars. Do you have any idea what he would have to accomplish to get that? Like we act like that's just going to automatically happen or something? No. You don't you don't automatically just go to work and then one day somebody gives you a trillion dollars.

First of all, let me teach you about how the news works. Years ago when Dilbert was newish and we're trying to get attention. Uh, I got a multi-book deal with a big publisher which we reported as a $25 million book deal. Do you think I got $25 million from a book deal? We told everybody it was a $25 million book deal. So, wouldn't you think that I, as the author would get $25 million? Nope. Nothing like that. Nothing like that. That was the biggest number that the publisher would pay under the most optimistic uh assumptions for for I think five books. So, first of all, it was five books. So, it'd be 5 million a piece. Second of all, I shared 50% of what I made from Dilbert Books with my publisher, I'm sorry, with my syndicate. And then I shared what's left with the publisher. And then I paid taxes. Do you know how much was left from the 25 million? I don't know. Might have been five. You know, maybe over the entire length of time. Might have been five, something like that. So when you say that somebody's got a trillion dollar uh pay package, the thing you should first ask is over how many years, the answer is 10. So a trillion dollars over 10 years is a hundred billion a year. Seems like he's worth it. But here's what he would have to deliver. He Tesla would have to go to $ 8.5 trillion market cap and it's only at 1.4 today. Now it's in 10 years. Could you get there? That would be a 466% increase from today. Do do you think he can do that? I I think you probably can, but it's not guaranteed. That's for sure. So, the first thing you need to know is you can't you can't treat a trillion dollars that you might get the same as a trillion dollars you're definitely going to get. And you can't treat money that's going to be spread over 10 years like it's money that you're getting today. First of all, you know, the uh the value of money declines over time, etc. A lot of things could happen. We don't even know if people have automobiles in 10 years.

He's got to he's got to deliver 20 million vehicles cumulative. I think that means since the beginning of Tesla. Uh he's got to deliver a million Optimus robots, humanoid robots sold. They actually have to be sold. A million a million robo taxis in operation and 10 million full self-driving subscriptions. Now, what we don't know is if he gets a portion of the trillion, if he gets a portion of these, but not all of them. Uh, that's a big deal. I mean, if if he really doesn't get anything, unless he gets all of them, I don't think he would agree to that deal, but it's impressive. And if successful, he would become the world's first trillionaire. No, he wouldn't. Th this is I I think this is just people who don't know how deals work. Nobody's ever going to give him a trillion dollars. There's no check for a trillion dollars. It's over 10 years. And I don't know if there's any sub payments in the 10 years or if he has to wait the

Context —

whole 10 years. But uh even when it's paid, remember some of it goes to taxes. Nobody's going to get a check for a trillion dollars. All right. Uh, but how many of his products that he's working on now could become the biggest in that category forever? All right, here are just a few things. If Elon starts making chips and he's the best at manufacturing things that people didn't know how to manufa…

Next segment → →