that DOGE went away if the reason is they had successfully just integrated into the thinking of the government and I think they did. I mean from the outside it looks like they did. So I would consider that an enormous win if that's what happened. But I'll take a fact check on that too.

I guess we've got some video Zero Hedge says of some maybe drones hitting a major power station near Moscow. Now, you have to be careful about all the reporting from Moscow and from Ukraine because it's all subject to the fog of war. But the timing would be interesting if that really happened. And there's good reason to believe it did happen because it would not be unusual for Ukraine to have done a drone attack on an energy facility in Russia. And this would be timed somewhat coincidentally or not by the fact that Marco Rubio just said they had a very productive meeting, actually the most productive. He said the most productive and meaningful meeting to date that is with his Ukrainian partners trying to come up with some kind of a peace deal that they could present to Putin that would have some chance of being negotiated to completion.

So as of today, the government is talking in a more, let's say, optimistic way about the chances of peace than I've seen in a while. Do you think that's real? I don't know. Because, you know, we've been disappointed so many times where we're like, "Oh, there's going to be a peace deal in Ukraine any minute." And then it gets yanked away.

Well, here's what I feel. And this is going to be more feelings than facts. So if I'm wrong, don't be surprised because I can't give you an argument for what I'm going to say. I'm going to tell you how it feels. Now, my argument, I guess there is an argument, but it's a bad one. My argument is that sometimes you can feel things or smell them before you can see them and touch them. And this is feeling that way to me. So I'm just an observer of the news. I don't have any special access to anything in this topic. But I observe patterns and sometimes I don't know what pattern I'm picking up. Have you ever had that experience? You're like, "Ah, I feel like I know where this is heading, but I don't know why I know it." And it's because there might be some pattern you're picking up. Might be false. Doesn't mean it's true, but it means we're just pattern recognition machines.

When I look at the war, here's the first question I ask. What are the odds that the Ukraine Russia war will still be raging for the entire term of Trump's time in office? Do you think this could run another three years? Because that would put it at seven years and it probably would be sitting at the same place at the end of three more years. So I'm finding it hard to believe that either Putin or Zelensky are thinking to themselves, we can wait this guy out, meaning Trump, we can wait him out. I think the days of waiting anybody out are over.

And then I would say, what are the odds that it would end differently if you wait three more years? And I think the answer is there's no reason to believe it's going to turn out differently. Might be better, might be worse. But the last thing that Moscow wants is three more years of Ukraine developing better drones. It's just going to get worse. So if you're in Moscow and something blew up and your lights flickered, which may or may not be what happened again, fog of war, you can't believe any reporting from that area. But if you believe it happened, it's going to be a lot of pressure. Could you imagine just going three more years and gaining nothing and it looks exactly the same at the end of three more years?

So my first pattern recognition is that if waiting doesn't seem like it's going to get you a better result and both sides would see that that seems obvious from both sides, then why would you wait? What you would do instead of waiting is you would look for some excuse as to why now would be the time. And that excuse is Trump. Trump is the excuse because he won't always be there and you can't count on even, you know, given our politics, you can't guarantee he'll even be there in three years. But he's there now and he's willing to put in maximum effort to get this thing finished. So because there's a Trump and because it's gone four years and because he's going to be here another three and because we can kind of predict that things aren't going to get better and that drones will get more powerful and just more things will explode. You might as well do it now.

Now is that a good argument? Not really. Not really. I'm telling you how it feels and what it feels like. I'm going to give you the summary of what I just said. The summary is it just feels like it's time. Does anybody have that feeling? And I'm not sure I would have said that before. Before I would have said, oh, it's logical. You know, both sides could, you know, they'd be better off if they do it. So I would have given you a logical argument before, but now it just sort of feels like the even the words that Marco Rubio chose, the way that Zelensky is sort of sliding into a new position, the way the Europeans are on the hook for the entire bill. It's sort of all those things. The way the technology is improving to the point where it's not a you know it's mostly robots on robots etc.

So I think maybe something's coming that could be good. And another way to look at it was it feels like capitulation. If you're familiar with investing, there's a word called capitulation. I mean it's a regular word, but when it's used in the context of investing, it means that people just feel like they're done with some investment position. Capitulation. And capitulation doesn't always have like a logical backing to it. It just people agree that's how they feel. It's like capitulation. I think that's what's happened. I think maybe the way the media will cover it will change. I think that there's also a narrative fatigue. Sometimes you just have to have a new narrative. And in this case, the narrative is the story, and the story is the reality, the thing that's really happening. I feel like we're tired of waking up and saying, "Is Russia and Ukraine at war still? Is exactly the same? Are the lines about the same as they were?" We're just fatigued with that version of reality. So there's also a we are living in a simulation argument, which is we're just tired with that narrative. So our collective consciousness will change the narrative because we're just bored with it. We'll get something else.

Then I would argue also that we already know how the story ends. We already know how the story ends. It's a three act movie and at the end of the third act, what happens? You all know how the movie ends. Let me set it up for you. In scene one, Trump is impeached twice and loses re-election. But in scene two, Trump wins re-election against all odds. And then he goes on this series of ridiculously successful presidential actions, which is what at least the Republicans would say he's doing right now. And that's a proper second act. So the first act is something really bad happens to your hero. That's the impeachment. That's the losing re-election. That's all that stuff. That's the first act. Second act is usually the hero of the movie has reached let's say some kind of plateau of how their life could be. If it's an athlete, the athlete is suddenly winning all the competitions, right? So that's happening. And then the third act would be something that looks like, oh no, you could never get out of this. It would be something like the Ukraine Russia war looks like it's unsolvable. At the same time, Trump's popularity numbers are plunging. So he's going to have the lowest popularity numbers in a war that he can't stop and he's going to be accused of being a fascist, whatever. And it will look like maybe it might even get worse. And it will look like there's no way anybody could get out of this situation. And that's the third act. The third act is when your hero escapes the situation that nobody could escape. It's impossible. And then what happens after he does the escape? What happens after he does the impossible? He gets a Nobel Peace Prize.

The fact that Trump doesn't have the Nobel Peace Prize and that this is brewing back there, that's a little bit too much of a pattern for me to imagine it's not going to go that way. It looks like it's just going to turn into a three-act movie. It will look like he's doomed pretty soon from some new drama that we don't even see coming. And then he'll find a way out because that's what he does. And then he'll get the Nobel Peace Prize and you'll be watching it in awe saying, "How did that, why was that so predictable?" Because it kind of is. So that'll be fun.

Well, Tucker Carlson was quite provoc