Back to episode — Episode 3068 ChattingWSA 01/10/26
Context —
sword too much. That's why she's here. I'll just simplify it to say it should have been really easy. But it went like, I'm making this up so you can't really use it. It'd be like something like I would say, all right, the first part is squirrel. And then I try to spell it. It'd be like P J squirrel. A and squirrel. It was the damnedest thing. I've never been that hallucinogenic. That's awesome,…
← Previous segment →d. Yes. It's a little after. But you have to approve them. Oh, yeah. We have to go approve them. They want to come in. Let's go approve some more. And let's accept some more. Okay. So now we have a bunch of people and this gentleman I guess the way I can tell if you want to come up is if you show up on video just to me. So it looks like Norm I can't see from way over here.
Hi.
Hi. What's your name?
Norm.
Norm. Hey Norm. Hey, Scott. Hey, Shelly. How you doing? Nice to meet you.
Nice to meet you. Finally get on here. Hey, somebody else been a huge follower. Norm. Yeah. Gotcha. Yo behind you. What are you behind? Oh, holy. Surprise. Surprise. What's your name? I keep hearing myself over and over again. All right. Well, it looks like Norm and Ryan around here. Oh, hey B. Maybe that's better. I think I did it. You're both on the audio. So yeah. So who would like to talk? Well, I heard you talking about mortgage bonds and I'm in the mortgage business, so I figured I'd jump on because I'm pretty pumped about Trump's buying the mortgage-backed securities. That'll definitely pump the rates down.
Now, explain to us like we're dumb how that will help.
Okay. So the last time that the government bought mortgage-backed securities, which is the bonds they're talking about, was after the 2008 housing crisis. So what happens is these bonds are available for like think of it like a mutual fund or a stock, but they're not very attractive because they don't give high rates of returns like the stock market and other mutual funds. So no one really buys them. So if no one buys them, there's not a demand for them. So the only way to get a demand is the rates go up to make it appealing to an investor. They want seven, eight percent return on their money at least, right? So because there's no demand for them, rates will go up. But once there's a demand, meaning when the country starts buying in that amount, it pushes the rates down because now they're being bought by someone, in this case, the government. So it's the government's way of manipulating the rates to go down when the Fed doesn't want to lower them. So because he's going back and forth with Powell, and Powell won't lower the rates, the way the government can do that is actually buy the bonds itself in large quantities like it is. And as long as he keeps buying them, the rates will go down and go down and go down because now he's created an interest, so to speak, by manipulating the system. It's only been done once before and it was Obama did it a lot in 2008 to keep the rates down when the Fed didn't want to lower it and that's when rates were like three, four percent.
Did it work?
Yeah. Oh, yeah. It worked. It was one of the biggest mortgage booms in history besides the one we just recently had with COVID. It was the largest rate reduction when it was two or three percent. But yeah, I mean rates went down to three or four. I've been in mortgages for thirty-five years and been reading your column for about the same amount of time and totally can understand the whole corporate culture. It made me want to open my own business so I didn't have to answer to anyone.
Nice.
But yeah, it worked and it will work.
Yeah, thank you for sharing that.
Yeah, and look forward to your future streams. But I don't want to take everyone's turn, but isn't it sort of a projection that we have a 5.4 GDP? I'm not familiar with the gross domestic product but I know the numbers came out recently yesterday the unemployment is going down which always helps. I mean, at the end of the day, all the numbers are in line for lower rates, but it's become a polit
Context —
ical thing with Powell and Trump where Powell just won't lower the rates or if he does lower them, he in his comments that he does to the people, he'll put something like this doesn't guarantee they'll be cut the next time. So he does all the right wording just to keep the rates high. Correct, Scott. You're correct. The Atlanta Fed nearly doubled their Q4 growth estimate to 5.4% from 2.9% for GDP…
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