Correct me if I'm wrong and I think that your mileage may vary on this but last week it looked like the following three things were not looking good. So last week we weren't sure that our herd immunity was even possible. Hydroxychloroquine was taking a hit for maybe killing people or not looking good but that was questionable. And then the Remdesivir. Last week there was that leaked report that made that look maybe not so good.

So in a week we've learned — well I would say that nothing is certain because what we think we know changes every week. So I would be foolish to say that this is the week it all got right. So let's just say that it's changed and who knows if it'll change again. But Nate Silver, you know him from politics and statistics, so he's the expert on mystics and whatnot. And even when I disagree with him which I sometimes do, famously in 2016, he's always smart and he's always a good read and he's always got a filter on things that I wouldn't have seen because I don't have his depth of experience in this field.

And he pointed out that the questions about whether people were reinfected happened to be by coincidence but probably not. The number of people who were showing up as maybe reinfected, which would say herd immunity might not work, happened to be about the same as the error rate on the tests. So in other words you could fully explain the anomalies in the herd immunity just because the tests are not that accurate. So you would expect actually statistically that you would get exactly the result they got. But if you interpreted it to mean that people had been reinfected it's probably more appropriate to say there was a test problem because it was about the same number.

Now you know I leave you to fact-check that. I'm just passing along that even I don't know. Forty-eight hours ago I told you that the odds of herd immunity were only maybe seventy-five percent because I was hearing these reports of like well maybe not. But after hearing Nate Silver's reframing of it I still don't know but I'm gonna bump up my odds to basically a hundred percent. Yeah you could make it ninety-nine if you don't want it to be a hundred. But so I would say that herd immunity is as of today and only today — this is the first time I'm willing to say I am positive there's herd immunity. As of yesterday I wasn't positive. Right now I'm positive because Nate pushed me over the line there.

So and you saw what happened to the stock market, right? The stock market just went nuts. So the stock market thinks good things are gonna happen but I don't think any of the things are going to be about testing. I think testing will just be the disappointment in all this.