Back to episode — Episode 157 Scott Adams - Cohen, EU Trade, Shadow Banning
Context —
All right. So have we totally settled that question? And here's my real question to you. Have you seen this explanation before? Because I keep expecting I'm going to see this. You know, I look at the news and I think, oh, somebody's going to do this. They're going to explain what cash means in this context. They're going to explain what finance means in this context. Then it all makes sense. Some…
← Previous segment →All right, let's talk about a few more things. North Korea is set to return remains of 55 fallen servicemen. I believe they're all men. And I have these real weird questions about, I guess they're about 5,000 unaccounted for service people from North Korea, American service people. And I think to myself, where are they? I'm trying to say this in the most respectful way, but does North Korea actually know where they are? And if they do know where they are, does it mean that they're buried? Does it mean that they've already, you know, were they already collected in one place and kept in case they needed to give them back? I've got real questions about how is it that when we ask they can produce 55 bodies? Like from where? I don't know how they did that. Anyway, that's more of a curiosity thing.
You saw that the representative from the EU, did you see the picture of him literally putting a kiss on President Trump's neck? And then the president tweeted that out and I saw it on Instagram as well, saying how much they loved each other. That was just great.
Now of course the two sides of the news, the left and the right, are going to report that story completely differently. The right will report it, you know, Fox News types will report it as great progress and that the bones of a deal, the framework of a deal, are largely agreed to and now they have to put some meat on it. But that's just ordinary business. So it's a big breakthrough and that the tariffs, let's say the trade war slash negotiations, were successful at least insofar as they, well, it looks like they will be. And the left will say, well, they haven't agreed to anything yet. So you're gonna see two movies on one screen. One saying nothing has really happened, the same as they said about North Korea. Well, the right will say, my God, it's a big breakthrough, which it might be, but it's a little bit earlier. We'll see.
Now here's my prediction. Imagine if you will the situation we have been in, which is the President of the United States says we're going to put tariffs on everybody from Canada to China to the EU, you name it. We're going to tariff, tariff, tariff. And we're going to start a trade war and everybody is on notice. We're not going to do any bad deals anymore. All right, so that's the situation we were in.
Now in that situation, what is the likely arc of how things are going to go from that point? So the setup is the president said we're tariffing everybody, trade war with everybody from Canada to China all at once. What's going to happen? Well, it's very likely because the United States is the biggest buyer, the biggest customer that we have. We have more leverage. We have a strong economy. We can withstand some pressure on the economy right now. And we have the biggest bank, so to speak. We have the most money. So the chances are we were going to get at least one of those entities, whether it was Canada, EU, China, and you know some country. One of them was gonna agree to a deal first.
So somebody had to go first. But nobody goes first until they have to. So here was my prediction. That for the first X weeks or months or whatever it would be, nobody would want to go first because nobody wants to be seen as folding. They don't want to be seen as the one. Ah, they buckled. They buckled. You know, the first one already went. Nobody wants to go first.
But here's the part I wish I had said earlier, but I guess it's still time to say it. After the first one makes a deal, the pressure on the rest of them to make a deal goes way up. Why is that? Because everybody in their own country will say, hey, the EU just made a deal. Well, you know, why is my business suffering when the EU just solved their problem? Why can't my government solve its problem? The EU just did.
So the psychological pressure just went right up because the EU just agreed to something. And I don't know if anybody is saying it's an unfair deal that they've arranged. I don't know the deal, but I don't see anybody saying, hey, that deal with the EU and the United States, the framework of a deal is going to be unfair. I don't hear that.
So what you're seeing is other countries who are going to have pressure internally to also make a deal because the first one did. It also makes it safe because everybody can watch the EU and they can say, uh-oh, what's going to happen to the leaders of the EU? Are they going to lose their jobs? Probably not. Probably not.
Now why was it easier for the EU to make a deal than China or Canada? Anybody? Anybody? Why was it better for the EU to make a deal than China or Canada? See if you know this one. Why did, in retrospect, I didn't predict this, but in retrospect this was the way it was going to go. They appointed a negotiator who is not the elected leader of any country. You get it? That's why this worked. Because he's not the elected leader.
So if you're the leader of any of the countries in the EU who were part of the deal, it wasn't you. So the individual leaders of the EU will not have to say I folded or you know I made a deal or nobody has to lose face because they had this common person who did a deal for a bunch of people.
But now that the first one's done, and in retrospect that was the one that makes the most sense to do first because of that effect. Yeah, that it's not the individual leaders. That makes it safe for Canada. I'm just using Canada as an example. Now Canada can say, okay, the EU made a deal. Let's make a deal too. You know, probably there'll be a little give and take on both sides.
Nobody's ever going to know if these deals are good or bad, by the way. They're all too complicated for we the public and even the press to know if the deal was good. So that gives some cover for a candidate to say, look, I'll make a deal but you know you got to do this on cheese, we'll do this on maple syrup or whatever the hell. So it's gonna look complicated. Trump will be able to claim that it worked. Canada will be able to say we did a good deal for our people because it'll be complicated. We won't know. We'll say, oh, I know one of them is telling the truth. They'll believe our leader this time.
And then probably China will be last. My guess is that China would be among the last to make a deal. There's no guarantee to any of these things. Too many variables. But the normal course of things would be nobody makes the deal for as long as possible until the first one does. And the first one being the EU made perfect sense because you know that's not a single leader of a single country. It's just more comfortable politically to do that.
All right. So here's what I expect. I expect that the trade deal will go from oh my God, worst thing in the world. Now that one has made a break, it'll be easier for the others to break. The other dominoes will fall.
Somebody said dominoes. I was literally had the word dominoes written here. I was gonna say that next. Damn it, you beat me to dominoes. But yes, it's the domino theory.
I have seen this exact theory in a court case that I don't know if I can, I can't tell you what it was about, but there's somebody I know personally who was involved in a very large billion-dollar court case and it was against a number of entities. Now all of the entities, these were big corporations. So there were a number of corporations being sued by a smaller entity. And all of them of course fought, fought, fought like crazy. Nobody was gonna give an inch until one of them did. And the moment that one of them broke ranks, all the rest of them got in line because that made it easy for the rest of them to say, all right, that's the way it's gonna go. It's gonna look like this first one. Let's just get it over with. We'll just do what they did.
All right, so it's a domino theory.
You saw Nikki Haley give a speech to some kind of students, I forget who they were, in which she said don't try to own the libs. I know that. In other words, don't try to make, you know, just don't be dicks basically. You know, don't be mean to the opposition. And it was a real good message. Got a lot of play. You got a lot of attention.
And remember I told you that I thought CNN has turned some kind of a corner and that CNN, it looks like they've made some kind of a decision. It could be this is preliminary and I could be completely off on this, but it feels like CNN has decided to be a kinder, gentler version of CNN. I don't know that that's true yet, but I'm seeing some signs of that a little bit. Yeah, well, and we'll see if the summer of love is back on.
Because if you imagine there's a really good chance that trade deals will start looking good, the children in the cages will be reunited with their parents, and the Russia collusion thing will be more obviously a big nothing. And we just saw that Israel did a major strike in Syria that apparently was either coordinated with or for the benefit at least partially for Russia. So we're watching the Russian and Israeli military coordinating in Syria. How would you like to be Iran right now and watching as Russia and Israel coordinate militarily? Now I'm sure they've already been doing that, but the more they do it, the more it has to be worrisome for Iran. So Iran is being further isolated.
How do you check your summer of wishful thinking? Well, I'm wishing it into existence, which is different from normal wishful thinking. When I do it, it causes it.
All right. Now let's talk about shadow banning. Yesterday a lot of you know there was an issue on Twitter where if you put in a search for somebody, if they were conservatives and prominent conservatives, often they would not show up in the drop-down box that auto-populates. That affected people like me. It affected my search, for example. You know, Jim Jordan, Matt Gaetz, Representative Matt Gaetz, and President Trump. Google, or not Google, he tweeted this morning about this issue.
Now what's interesting is when Trump gets his jaws on something, he doesn't really let go. So I think this issue is gonna have to be dealt with. Now of course Twitter's response was that, I actually appreciated Twitter's response in the sense that what Jack Dorsey responded was that obviously they need to do some work. And I thought, oh, that's very disarming. It's actually exactly the right thing to say, which is, you know, they're recognizing the complaint. They're not denying it. They're recognizing it. And then they're saying I guess we need to do more work to gain the public's trust. And so they're working on that. So we'll see if in the next few days if anything changes in terms of the drop-down box. I think it might have already changed. I'm not entirely sure. But some people were reporting that mine started to autofill.
I think the issue was if you follow somebody it autofilled fine. But if you were looking for somebody you did not follow and they were conservative, there was a good chance they wouldn't even show up in the autofill thing. How do you do some work on expressed censorship? You look at your algorithm and make sure that it's not accidentally discriminating. It's not easy, but that's the basic idea, I guess.
Context —
All right. So I'm looking at your comments. All right, I've got another suggestion to make the world a better place and it's called the clarification rule. You know the rule where if you drop something on the ground people say, oh, five-second rule. They pick it up and eat it. Now of course there's no science to the five-second rule, but it does make life better, right? Because people don't want t…
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