Back to episode — Episode 884 Scott Adams - Taking Questions and Solving Pandemics Like it's Nothing
Context —
the president calling Jim Acosta "Jim," you know he just used his first name a few times and he did allow him to ask his questions. He pushed back but it was all way more polite than you're used to. Likewise when we found out that unfortunately Chris Cuomo tested positive for the virus I didn't see anybody acting political or like a jerk. I'm sure there were some because it's the internet but mos…
← Previous segment →ive with that? That in theory I should be wrong but like a hundred thousand at least. If you're coming back this just bothers the heck out of me if somebody comes back and says you said and it wasn't what I said. I know that's gonna happen. Why am I cranky? I just took a nap. I just woke up from a nap.
All right, I got some questions here which I will answer.
Jentech Sir says do you think Dr. Fauci now needs a behavioral psychologist on his panel to get us through the anxiety and stress? Well that's my job. That's what I'm here for. I'm to get you through your stress. Is it working? I have to admit I'm losing a little bit of confidence in the experts but you know I think we're on the right path actually.
Erica says I just need calm. I cannot take the press and the hatred and snark anymore. Will it ever stop? Well honestly it looks like there's less than ever compared to normal. Normally they're trying to impeach the president and today they're just wondering if he did the right thing as soon as he could have. Let me think about it. It wasn't long ago they were saying he should be kicked out of office and impeached and he was a tool of Russia. That's bad. What they're criticizing him today for is well you know he maybe eats up a little too much camera time communicating with the public. Okay that's it. You know if you look at the nature of the complaints this week they're very small. They're kind of numerous because they need to fill up the page and stuff but they're so small. He did the right thing and nobody did the right thing faster than any other country. By hypothetically had he known what he didn't know he could have done it sooner. Those are the kinds of complaints that people are making. They're not very deep.
David Angel says what makes the virus models any better than the climate change models? Well I'll tell you David the further out you go in time and the more variables you have the worse your model as a general rule. The virus models are really short term. They're actually like weeks compared to the climate models that are decades and 80 years, 100 years. And I would think that the virus model has far fewer variables. I think right. I mean I haven't looked at it in that level but you think virus model they're just gonna say I don't know six variables. How many could there be? Whereas the climate seems more like infinite variables. So I'm not saying the virus models are correct but I do think the experts and Trump and Fauci they had the worst time trying to explain to the public this simple concept and it was making me crazy because they kept repeating it over and over and you're probably already sick of it. Which is that the models don't tell you what's going to happen. They tried to explain this a million times now. Because I've done lots of financial modeling you know I'm awesome at it. The model, the prediction doesn't tell you what's going to happen. It's going to tell you sort of directionally where things will go. Is it real bad? Is it a little bad? And you know if you make this kind of change you'll sort of generally go that way. They're very, very approximate. So the models are doing their job as scaring people to comply but I wouldn't look for accuracy. Even the short term they are of her useful.
So who is it who said no prediction? Somebody said something like there's a famous quote like no predictions are accurate but all predictions are useful. All right there's something like that.
Jody says I'm in New Orleans too. Drove around to different hospitals. They all appear dead ghost towns. Why? I don't know. I would think that all the activity is going to be concentrated in a few hospitals so maybe it was a different hospital. I know what ratio of doctors to beds are needed. That's a good question. What would you think with knowing anything? You know if we just had to guess how many beds, let's say that means patients, how many patients can one doctor handle? That's a good question isn't it? I have no idea because it obviously depends. But if let's say you were taking the average of these COVID-19 patients you know and you averaged an X number need ventilation and X number don't. How many could one doctor handle? Let's say you know in any given day during an emergency 50. Because remember they're working long hours and they're really hitting it. You know they're not dawdling. So maybe one doctor could do 50. Is that way too high or way too low? I have no idea.
Pancakes or waffles? Neither. My opinion on today's briefing. I thought the beginning of the briefing was very strong and Trump's part in particular he did very well. I thought it went too long and maybe he took too many questions and that it seemed to. Look at all the estimates for how many patients the doctor can handle: 30 to 110. You know all kinds of estimates. All right so I think the president probably should have kept that shorter but it was generally good.
Let me tell you what they are still failing at completely. So the members of the press they're so weak compared to the government. Now I don't know if that's just because of the era of Trump or whatever but they're asking all these questions of the administration and the administration is just not answering them. And it goes like this. This form of the question: how many ventilators do you think we'll need and how many do we have you know including the ones that are coming. That's like the whole question right? You could ask that same question again for masks. How many do we need? How many do we have coming? You know I mean you could add a little detail but that's basically it. And for each of the different components, the hydroxychloroquine. And the reporters keep trying to ask that question in all kinds of forms and even one of them was smart enough to say shouldn't there be somebody whose job it is just to be measuring that stuff so that everybody knows what we have and what we need and report it out. Which is of course exactly what I've been saying for a while. That Mike Pence's answer is that we have that person and he named the person who works for FEMA. Yes you know we have exactly that person. You do because it doesn't look like you have that person. If you have that person when they ask that question you would have an answer. And even if the answer was approximate for example you might say some people think we'll need as many as 60,000 ventilators others think it might only be 40,000. That's fine. That's fine. That's telling you something. And then you go on to say we've you know we know that we have let's say 20,000 ventilators. If you added up all the people who are trying to make them and promising, we don't know if they'll meet their commitments but if you just added what they were promising we should be up to 45,000 within three weeks. How hard would it be? Again you could be way off but it's more than we know now. I mean it would at least let's say the numbers were something like that. We need 60,000 but it might be only 40,000. We've got 20,000 in warehouses and commitments for another 25,000. Wouldn't that do? You don't think anybody could have pulled those numbers together and just told us? There could be that they're lying to us the way they lied to us about the masks the way they lied to us about the hydroxychloroquine. It could be a shortage situation. I don't know. So maybe they're still just intentionally not telling us but I would say this is just a gigantic glaring flaw that the press is totally letting them get away with. And I don't know if the press just doesn't know that it should be reasonably easy to do. I don't know. It's a big mystery where they're not pushing on that. But you know I've been giving it a little time because Pence did say that they are querying the hospitals to get exactly this kind of information. It could be it just takes a few days. If it's like everything else in the world you can't do it overnight but it's been a few days and I'd like to see at least I don't know one number like well we got the masks number we're still working on the other. I don't have confidence if I'm not seeing those numbers produced pretty quickly.
Well everything. Ian says well anything ever be done about the obvious corruption of the World Health Organization? Well I don't know but I'd certainly be amazed if we continued to fund them wouldn't you? I mean maybe they do some things that are so important that we have to anyway but after this situation where the World Health Organization seems to have been completely a bad actor, they weren't even just worthless they were actually a bad actor and may have caused a lot
Context —
of deaths. So I don't know how we would continue to fund them but we'll see. What's your maximum certainty let's say that we'll see some sort of attack by a foreign country while we deal with the COVID-19 here at home? I would say none. The odds that a foreign country would attack us under these circumstances are none. Because first of all who attacks the United States right? You know who would i…
Next segment → →