Coffee With Scott Adams — Knowledge Archive July 10, 2026
Scott Adams Philosophy Archive
Search ideas

Context —

e's the most fun story of the day. Most of you have seen on social media a chart that seemed to show that the number of pneumonia deaths this year fell off a cliff just when we started reporting the coronavirus deaths. And the implication is that regular pneumonia was being classified incorrectly as coronavirus deaths, because why would the pneumonia deaths suddenly just disappear when they've nev…

← Previous segment →

ebunked the debunking, and I thought, well, maybe it's not.

But I'm going to show you how to end an argument. You've never seen an argument ended as eloquently as the one I'm going to end right now. And this is with the help of Tyler Morgan, whose profile says he's a freelance data scientist, software developer, business analyst, and mining engineer. So he's a freelance data scientist. That's exactly the right skill set to look at this chart and then look at the data and tell us if this chart has accurately reflected the data.

All right, so it's the right job, the right guy. But wow, talk about nailing it. I have to show it to you, and I don't know if you'll be able to see it. I'm going to see. Can you see this if I hold it? Let me see if I can. I'll change the lighting setting on here and darken it, and then I think you'll be able to barely make it out because you have to see it moving.

So here's a chart made by talented Tyler Morgan, data analyst. And see if you can see it. I hold it just right. I think you can. Oh, darn it. Oh, this is such a good chart. I have to try one more time to see if I could let you see that, because this is just so good. How about now? Oh, kind of. All right. Sue. Damn it. I have to hold it just right. This is so annoying. Correct. Oh, I guess it probably color adjusted. That's what happened. Yeah.

All right, well, this would be really impressive if you could see it. Let me describe it for those of you who are just listening. So Tyler Morgan, who is a freelance data scientist, took all the data from the CDC. And this is the source, the same source that the allegedly misleading graph used. And what he graphed, he graphed it in the same timing as the other years had been graphed. In other words, he built his graph to show the curve being built up over time as the reporting came in each month for prior years.

And what he found... somebody said turn blue light off. Let me try that. Alexa, turn off studio. All right, so let's see if I go dark if you can see that. I didn't know. Almost there it is. You can almost see it moving in the dark there. All right.

So you see the little line below. It's actually a different line for each year. You can't tell that they're different colors for the year, but what you can see is that the line starts out seeming to have this inexplicable dip. When it reaches the middle there, this seems to be dipping down, but that's a fake dip caused by the known lag in data. So as the data comes in, the curve just goes back to where all the other curves are for the prior years.

So this is... I'm glad whoever said to turn off the blue light. That was exactly the right answer, so thank you for doing that. But look how perfectly this ends the argument, because that line is for not just this year but it's for every prior year. And you can see that every year at this time there's an unexplained dip, which actually is explained by the lag. And all of them will be the same.

So Alexa had turned on studio. Sorry, I'm triggering all your devices at home. But since you don't have a studi

Context —

o, you probably ordered anything. Hi. So I've never seen an argument ended so perfectly. Have you? Have you ever seen an argument on Twitter that actually came to some kind of a conclusion? Usually you could argue forever. And if we'd only been arguing without the benefit of an animated graph, because it was the animation that brought it alive. Now I'd like to tie this point to the point I've bee…

Next segment → →