Episode 900 Scott Adams - Why I Have Decided to Identify as Woman to Lower My #Coronavirus Risk

bump bump bump bump hey everybody come on in it's almost time for coffee with Scott Adams this is the place it is have you noticed that not a single person who regularly watches coffee with Scott Adams has died from the corona virus it's true if there's anybody on here who can refute that claim please let me know but for now I'm gonna say that watching coffee with Scott Adams and the simultaneous hip has some protective qualities that are just as proven as hydroxychloroquine unfortunately that's true but it's a good thing you hear because you can enjoy the protective value of the simultaneous if evaluate is a cup or a mug door glass a tanker challenger stein a canteen junker flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid I like coffee enjoyed me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine the end of the day the thing that makes everything including the pandemic better I just realized so you can't spell pandemic with our damn probably doesn't mean anything but aside for the simultaneous up go the pain damage but I guess you can't spell it without damn but you can't spell it without damn wait a minute wait a minute you can't spell a pandemic without them all right so here's the most fun story of the day most of you have seen on social media a chart that seemed to show that the number of pneumonia deaths of this year fell off a cliff just when we started reporting the coronavirus deaths and the implication is that regular pneumonia was being classified incorrect as coronavirus deaths because why would the pneumonia death suddenly just disappear when they've never done that and the other year this month all the other years had a somewhat you know a similar curve except this one one year Boop now to catch you up I saw that chart and said to myself that looks like a fake chart and so I challenged the world to debunk it or not debunk it and pretty soon there was a debunk er but then as I reported yesterday there was a debunk er of the D bunker so I started out thinking well it's debunked and then somebody debunked the debunking and I thought well maybe it's not but I'm gonna show you how to end an argument you've never seen an argument ended as elico eloquently as the one I'm gonna end right now and this is with the help of Tyler Morgan whose profile says he's a freelance data scientist software developer business analyst and mining engineer so he's a freelance data scientist so that's exactly the right skill set to look at this chart and then look at the data and tell us if this chart has accurately reflected the data all right so it's the right job the right guy but wow talk about nailing it I have to show it to you and I don't know if you'll be able to see it I'm gonna see can you see this if I hold it let me see if I can I'll change the lighting setting on here and darken it and then I think you'll be able to barely make it out because you have to you have to see it moving so here's a chart made by talented Tyler Morgan data analyst and see if you let's see if you can see it I hold it just right I think you can all darn it oh this is such a good chart I have to try one more time to see if I could let you see that cuz this is just so good how about now Oh kind of all right sue damn it I have to hold it just right this is so annoying correct oh I guess it probably color adjusted that's what happened yeah all right well this would be really impressive if you could see it let me describe it for those of you who are just listening so Tyler Morgan who is a freelance data scientist took all the data from the CDC and this is the source the same source that the allegedly misleading graph used and what he graphed it he graphed it in the same timing as the other years had been graphed in other words he built his graph to show the the curve being built up over time as his reporting came in each month for prior years and what he found somebody said turn blue light go off let me try that Alexa turn it off studio all right so let's see if I go dark if you can see that I didn't know almost there it is you can almost see it moving in the dark there all right so you see the little line below it's actually a different line for each year you can't tell that they're different colors for the year but what you can see is that the line starts out seeming to have this inexplicable dip when it reaches the middle there this seems to be dipping down but that's a fake dip caused by the known lag and data so as the the data comes in the curve just goes back to where all the other curves are for the prior years so this is I'm glad whoever said to turn off the blue light that was exactly the right answer so thank you for doing that but look how perfectly this ends the argument because that line is for not just this year but it's for every prior year and you can see that every year at this time there's an unexplained dip which actually is explained by the lag and all of them will be the same so Alexa had turned on studio sorry I'm triggering all your devices at home but since you don't have a studio probably ordered anything hi so I've never seen an argument ended so perfectly have you have you ever seen an argument on Twitter that actually came to some kind of a conclusion you usually you could argue forever and if we'd only been arguing without the benefit of an animated graph because it was the animation that brought it alive now I'd like to tie this point to the point I've been making since day one about the task force you've seen me just complaining endlessly that the task force gives you raw numbers and doesn't put them in context so I don't care how many masks you delivered unless I know how many you need it doesn't tell me if you've got ten percent of what you needed or 110 percent and my point is that they had the wrong people working so that the task force simply didn't have anybody on their on their team who was as talented as Tyler Morgan so you know guy on internet just totally nails this data visualization what honestly this is the best data visualization I've ever seen in my life in terms of getting you to you know an answer in a way that just ends the conversation it's probably the best one I've ever seen so somebody like him should have been working with the task force to give us a picture give us a graph give us some kind of visual sense of are we getting close to getting enough supplies or not here's my sense of it I think we're gonna overshoot the supplies and I was happy when dr.

Burks was talking about the system because you know I always obsess about a system you know rather than saying it's our goal to get everybody enough stuff I always say well it's great to have a goal but what's your system if you don't have a system you're not going to achieve your goal so dr.

Brooks the first time gave a little detail of the system so apparently the at the federal level they do have some visibility into the hospitals it's becoming apparent that at least part of the problem for them getting numbers about how much people have and how much they need and I think this is very clear now is that the hospitals were lying to them and it must have been obvious in other words hospitals were saying AHA yeah we're gonna need a million masks when they might have thought they needed a hundred thousand but they didn't want to run out so everybody's sort of maximizing their their their selfish individual Hospital benefit and that's not that's not a flawed the people the system causes everybody to try to maximize their individual benefit and you hope things work out in the long run but in but if they start hoarding that doesn't work you know capitalism works even when everybody's selfish because the the rules of capitalism and the transparency and everything allowed that to work there doesn't always work all right so so Cuomo was saying he needed 30,000 ventilators so what I think is that now that Burks has described the system in which the federal government has some visibility and they're overruling the requests from the individual areas which i think is exactly what I wanted to hear because in order to make sure that the places with an immediate need can get you know get ventilators and stuff transferred to them is the government needs to look at their numbers of all the hospitals reporting and then act like an adult and say you don't need a million of these I know you want a million and I know you'd feel better if you had a million and I know you can pay for a million but maybe this isn't statistically where we need a million masks so when Burks the doctor described that that was their system where the federal government was had jazz ability that was the first thing I needed to know that I didn't know I didn't know that they had visibility and they're also they were doubting doubting the requests that makes me very comfortable I want the federal government to be playing the adult and you know doubting the the need of individual things and putting a larger you know analytical frame on it so they're thinking just things with that system in place and absent the government saying oh we have a big emergency in this one supply if if the government thought they were gonna run out of supplies at this point yesterday as of today's vantage point I'm almost positive you would be hearing something like this we'd you know we're really short on this supply but you're not hearing that right you're hearing sort of a general we need more of everything the fact that it's only general and nobody's saying my god we ran out of this one thing we got to get these tomorrow suggests that the government might be comfortable that we'll have enough everywhere and that comfort might come entirely from their newfound ability to overrule the hospitals and move things where the federal government but the National Guard at 7:00 so I get it I'm gonna give the taskforce a C+ for reporting about how many materials that we need I did give them an F yesterday based on the fact that they provided no context for us to know whether the numbers every reporting were enough for too much but I'm revising that today because now with the with the understanding of that they have a system the system is completely rational from you know me as an observer I would say yeah that's that is exactly the system you need it I believe it exists I don't think dr.

Brooks is you know lying or misleading us that such a system exists so with the knowledge that that system exists and the fact that the government isn't calling out some specific supply that's the extra emergency and the fact that the the estimates have gone way down strongly suggests that our government thinks they'll have enough of everything would you agree by the way would you agree they're just sort of reading the hints suggests that the government does think they'll still have enough now that's probably a new opinion based on the fact that the death count estimates also went down and they built a system for adjusting where you need things went so I'm gonna give them a C+ because I think there might be a valid reason for not giving us the details one of them is they don't believe the details coming from the hospitals so if they were to report it they would have to simultaneously say but we don't think the numbers are real we think all the hospitals are lying to us to pad their supplies although I would have been okay with that but given that they have a system I'm okay with it without the details because I don't think there's a problem and I also think it's completely sensible if not completely ethical no I will say this let me say this if the government thinks that we're gonna make way too many ventilators and masks they should still keep pushing as hard as they are even if we're not going to use them in the United States because remember even though you know we want to be America first it's a global problem and if we don't get a control on the rest of the globe or they don't get a control on it it does come back to us right so for selfish reasons you have to help the world it's an enlightened selfishness but you do have to help the world so if we make 10 times more ventilators than we need and we can share them with countries that don't have enough I'd say that is ethically and morally required I would say that's required at this point what do you say you know if we have enough of the United States but we could make more I think we're I think we're at eclis morally required to make them if we can so at this point I'm pretty good pretty good with what the task force is doing with supplies let's see I'm already seeing the debate of the people disagreeing whether the death counts are going down because we estimated them wrong from the beginning or because the mitigation works right I told you that this debate will never end and when it's done we still never know we'll never know I mean you might think you know but you might not speaking of death has estimates dr.

Chris Murray director of the Institute for Health metrics and evaluation at the University of Washington so there there's more than one model of death but this model is at least notable enough that it was it was on TV so and the TV news and their model says that the new predicted death count is around 80 mm so the u.s.

death count by this model which is one of the big ones is lower to 80 mm now that's 82,000 gross so that would be the number of people who were coded as dying from crota virus in the United States but over that period which will be a few months there will also be and we know we know for sure that a number of regular deaths will be avoided so a whole bunch of regular deaths won't happened so you have to net the 80 mm and how many regular deaths won't happen during this period I don't know the exact number but it's in the tens of thousands so let's say let's say it's fifty thousand so let's say there are fifty thousand avoided 82,000 coronavirus deaths so you take the difference so you'd be has 32,000 deaths net so and this is an official estimates this is somebody who does this you know it's not the Imperial Imperial model but it's it's one of the ones that gets thrown in that conversation and if it gets down to thirty-two thousand deaths that's just the current estimate that's not the estimate assuming that we give even better at reducing the deaths and do you think that will get even better you know do you think we'll do you think that it will get even better I might so whose estimate will be the closest when we're all done remember my estimate was five thousand or less net suppose the number comes into the 32,000 net who had the closest estimate the experts who said maybe one hundred or two thousand two hundred thousand maybe a million or the cartoonist who would be somebody says there is somebody restating it down to the sixty thousand level oh my god I feel like I'm gonna I'm gonna I'm gonna kill somebody somebody in the comments says have you given up on your five thousand net I'm not gonna block you because you're just confused but let me tell you it's always 5,000 net if you ask me in a hundred years that will still be my prediction it could be right it could be wrong but it's never gonna be gross it will always be net always has been 5000 that please never ask me again if I've changed it because even if I update it I will be saying that the 5000 net was wrong so it would be it would just be a new prediction if I change it but this one is it's it's hard-coded that's my prediction right or wrong now if I change my prediction that would be a second prediction that could be judged right or wrong but the first one will be wrong if I if I change it all right there's also CNN is mocking the conservative people for saying that the death count may be over counted and this is brian Stelter on CNN so I have to read this because I think it's always funny the way C and then biases their their opinion stuff well I guess opinions are biased by nature but this is brian Stelter on CNN he says some of the biggest names in right-wing media are questioning the official carbon 19 death toll all right so some of the biggest names in right-wing media so later he goes on to name who he's talking about these biggest names in right-wing media and the alyssum he says rush limbaugh and i'm thinking yeah yes that's that's about the biggest name and right wing well conservative anyway i wouldn't call him great wait mark levin yeah yeah big name on conservative taco carlson of course britt hume yeah and they throws in diamond and silk now i love diving in silk and what they do is tremendous i mean there's a there's a reason that they're successful they're very talented and charismatic and they're great all right as far as the in the same category with Tucker Carlson and Brit Hume but yeah that's just what's funny is that CNN likes to you know just love everybody together so that for their purposes anyway here's this point he saying that all these conservative types who he calls right-wing but there that's I would just say they're conservative they're suggesting that the numbers might be inflated in an effort to paint president Trump as doing a worse job and I think that the the evidence of that is that dr.

Burks said at the press conference that if somebody comes in with two conditions let's say diabetes and also a corona virus and they die that they call that a corona virus death not a diabetes death if they come in with hypertension and coronavirus they call it a corona virus death now i think that a lot of conservative people are saying wait a minute between the fact that you've already admitted that you can't tell what they died of and yet you're coding them all as coronavirus death just because they have corona virus in them there must be a lot of people dying coincidentally you also have an infection so they're saying well that's an obvious way that you're over counting and then they look at that graph that's been debunked and they say well there it is there's the proof dr.

Burks has admitted that they're coding them coronavirus without really knowing and then you look at the graph and it shows there's a big drop-off in pneumonias boom you put those two things together and therefore it's obvious that the number of pneumonia deaths have been undercounted and that they they illegitimately counted them as coronavirus deaths and therefore the number is inflated here's what's wrong with that point of view everything alright so the whoever whoever is associated with that point of view that's just dead wrong as far as I can tell number one remember two points of data that they're using number one is that graph that I talked about earlier which is completely debunked so in terms of looking at the data as its presented on the graph it's just fake there's that data so half of the argument I don't know if this is true for all the individuals that I mentioned but in general half of the argument is based on a graph which we know is based on lagging data and not accurate I won't call it a fake some people some people object to becoming a fake because that sounds like it was intentionally faked but fake also just means untrue so the graph is untrue I don't think anybody necessarily to that intentionally secondly what do you make of the fact that dr.

Brooks admits in public that if somebody comes in with two conditions either one of them could kill you but if one of them is coronavirus they call it a coronavirus death does that inflate the number of coronavirus deaths I think not but every one of you thinks yes right probably probably almost every one of you at least 90% of you are saying well duh if they come in with two things that could kill you and you you don't know which one killed you and they're not checking they're not doing an autopsy obviously that gets you accidentally over counting right just obviously it couldn't be more obvious right I disagree I'm gonna side with dr.

Burks and here's why statistically speaking what are the odds that your diabetes was gonna kill you that day yeah what if you had diabetes you probably didn't get it on Tuesday you've probably had diabetes for 15 years if you have diabetes for 15 years you go in one week for coronavirus and you die is it statistically invalid to say well we can't guarantee it was the Kuroda my but one of the odds that you've had this problem for 15 years and this is the week you died so I'm gonna say it is true that you can't tell you cannot be a hundred percent sure that somebody went into the hospital died because of the Kuroda virus but I do feel confident there from a statistical point of view it's probably well over ninety percent accurate well over ninety percent anybody disagree now add to that how many people died at home of a heart attack who also had corona virus but it didn't make any difference because they died of a heart attack and nobody checks for a corona virus yeah that the EMTs come to your house they see I had a heart attack you've never been diagnosed for corona virus how did they code it well sure they coded as a heart attack because that's what it was so you have a troop had this problem in coding these things but it could work either way could it could be a little you know a little little push and pull not necessarily equal but I'm just saying that there might be inaccuracies in both directions and in my opinion dr.

Burks is on completely sound statistical ground because the odds that you've had cancer for six months but this is the week you died could be because of the cancer could be but if you're also struggling for oxygen and your lungs are collapsing exactly like a corona virus patient and you've got the what the ER doctors call that distinguishing your red eyes apparently your eyes get red around the edges and it could be a coincidence that you died of something else but I think statistically I'm gonna say that there is no evidence to support the conservative point of view that there is obviously over accounting there could be over counting but the evidence that's used to suggest that there is is completely invalid somebody says Scott I disagree oh you're so close to getting blocked if you had said Scott you're wrong I would have blocked him because you know I always tell you that you can tell me why I'm wrong because even though you don't have that much room in the text you could suggest that the topic of which I'm wrong so you might have said for example I think you're forgetting this factor um you don't have to go into details you could say have you considered this doesn't take many characters but if you're just telling me I'm wrong you get blocked whoever said Scott I disagree you're right on the edge of getting blocked but I'm gonna let you go with a warning okay who benefits from extended lockdown crazy talk that's crazy talk alright everybody who believes that the lockdown is some kind of a clever scheme by some kind of political or other operatives in my opinion that's crazy talk and you should just stop doing it alright now that's not to say that there are people who are thinking well if we had to have a crisis might as well get something out of it I'm sure there are those people but in general I think nobody's doing this for advantage I think people are you know biased the way they're biased CNN will always criticize the president no matter what but you sort of discount that in your mind speaking of the press and the president there are some a couple of funny things if you watch the press conference you saw President Trump go full Simon Cowell now you could argue this Simon Cowell is really just Trump because they both like to insult their their critics but the thing about Simon Cowell is that he'd be he would be cruel to people who were just you know we're just trying to do their job you know just trying to sing so he had so Simon Cowell had that like special kind of cruelness there wasn't anybody who did anything to Simon Cowell president Trump generally has the kind of cruelness where he's just getting back at people who criticized him first so Simon was worse in the sense that he'll criticize somebody that didn't do anything to him first so with that in mind there was a reporter for I don't know who it was I didn't recognize him so the reporter starts to ask the question of President Trump and he starts he goes quote checking on oil again today and then the president cuts them off in mid-sentence he goes where is it today give me the price and the reporter says I'm not sure to be honest and then Trump says how could he ask a question would you know the price then the reporter says I'll look it up and Trump cuts him off in disgust just let me go to somebody else it was it was the coldest thing I've ever seen the president do once the price of oil you don't know I'll go to somebody who knows how to ask a question and oh my god I was watching that and I just thought to myself oh my god because I was putting myself in the shoes of this reporter and again I don't know what Letty was from maybe some maybe somebody here can tell me but since they have to take turns even to getting into the press room so first of all it's the hardest thing in the world to get into the room in in a normal time in a normal time it'd be hard to be important enough to be in that room with the president at the press conference but because of social distancing they're only letting them sit you know every third chair or whatever it is so to get into the room under these conditions is very rare and I didn't recognize him so I don't know if he's ever been in the room before it might have been the first time he's ever asked the question to the president on live TV I don't know that but I've never seen him before and I'm thinking it might be imagined what his day was like the reporter imagined when he found out okay is this very rare honor but you're gonna be in the room can be national TV and it's not a regular press conference the whole country in fact the whole world is watching these these are really highly rated only a few of you are chosen the end of all the reporters in the world you're one of the I don't know 810 how many were in the room and you get to ask a question on national TV make it good make it good this is your moment to shine checking on the oil yep where is it give me the price I'm not sure to be huh how can he ask you a question would you drop the price I'll look it up let me just go to someone else oh my god now I've said before that I could watch this all day long and it's true because I think the president knew what I don't let this person was problem and he probably knew in advance it wasn't going to be a real question right it probably wasn't gonna be a real question it was just gonna be another gotcha question I'm guessing the president sniffed it out because of who he worked for the reporter so that was pretty funny the other repressed failure is there's reporting that President Trump could gain financially by the hydroxychloroquine drug and apparently it's true it's true apparently the president could gain financially if people use this drug that he's promoting that has not passed all the scientific clinical tests sounds pretty bad doesn't it president the United States promoting an unproven drug that he has a financial interest in Wow Wow the press nailed him got him they got him this time let's see how much how many millions did he does he stand to make on this well let's see it's a blind trust and it's a managed portfolio so he doesn't directly on the stock it's in a managed basket of stocks by some other company that doesn't investing for him and how much more percentage well if you do the math it looks like the president if everything went well instead if he you know their stock went up I think the president could stand to and this is just an estimate I mean I could be off a little bit but I think this the president stands to make hundreds of dollars hundreds yea hundreds of dollars now not hundreds of millions of dollars based on the amount of stock he owns indirectly through a fund that owns lots of stocks including this one according to Mike Serta who bothered to do the math and it basically tweets shamed the the rest of the media for not even bothering to do the math yeah apparently the game could be all of maybe a few hundred dollars if everything went right you know best case scenario President Trump could make hundreds of dollars off of this that was world news world news they could make hundreds of dollars if everything went right so your press has not been covering themselves with glory let's talk about Pope Francis you know it's good that we have these religious and moral leaders because when you have a big crisis an emergency they they can be very helpful you know and normal times are helpful but you really need a moral and spiritual leader like the Pope to really get on board and be useful during this time of emergency so here's what he said Pope Francis has said that the corona virus pandemic is one of quote nature's responses to humans ignoring the current ecological crisis ok I take back everything I said it turns out that our moral and religious leaders are no use whatsoever an emergency may be making it worse possibly but nice try Pope Francis thanks for playing that didn't work out let's see what else is going on I gotta check that number of deaths it see if it really got really got lowered now I tweeted provocatively I tweeted provocative this and I have to read you my tweet in the exact wording because if you don't do the exact wording it doesn't work I said I would never compare President Trump to Jesus but it is worth noting that they are somewhat comparable in terms of curing illnesses I mean you know talking about the democratic representative who who credits President Trump with saving her life by recommending the hydroxychloroquine and then I go on it said and to be fair I don't think Jesus could have come back after the Access Hollywood tape if you think about it it was pretty miraculous but overall Jesus is way way better than Trump so I want to be very clear I'm not comparing Trump to Jesus it's just sort of objectively true that Trump is gonna have some cures Jesus had some cures but we're not keeping score we're not keeping score I'm not saying he's better than Jesus come on don't even think that I'm just saying that they both have some cures and they're coming back from the Access Hollywood tape I don't think anybody expected that come back so just pointing it out but overall overall just so we're on the same page here overall Jesus is way way better than Trump we all agree on that right okay glad we're on the same page so the the New York City Health Department they've been asked whether it was safe to have sex during the coronavirus thing and so they issued some guidelines so this is the New York City Health Department and they they said that you should they recommend that you're only get intimate with someone in your household along with oh well I can't say this word cuz your kids are home but this is coming from a you know an official government source the New York City Health Department so let's put it this way the the other thing that they recommend the last part of the word is Bayesian the first part of the word is bastard so that's what they recommend either only get intimate with someone who's already in your household or you could do the Bayesian thing first part master and I thought to myself well I'm kind of limited to people in my household my fiance is in a different house sort of Snickers and Boo my dog in my cat so I held a little house meeting and I talked to my dog and my cat and I said this isn't me talking this is an official government source and I said they're recommending you can only get intimate with somebody who's already in your house so I was sort of feeling am out on this and I got to know from both on mid turns out they were both like no forget about it and then they both recommend it and this is weird I didn't see it coming but the dog the dog recommended that I do that Bayesian thing first word master and when the dog said that to me I thought are you kidding are you kidding are you telling me that I've just spent the last month completely alone in this big house of mine and I could have been doing that with all my free time my Wi-Fi and my access to the Internet are you telling me I could have been doing that the whole time I was waiting for some kind of a guideline and man was I getting frustrated but thank you to the New York City Health Department for EM and my dog Snickers for giving me the big okay there I'm just saying I feel a lot better today I'm just feeling a lot better today all right I looked at my odds according to one list so my odds of dying from the coronavirus because I live in California and apparently California is really nailing it on this coronavirus stuff really nailing it and so my odds of dying as a Californian are one in a hundred thousand one in a hundred thousand now of course I'm in the high-risk group so mine is actually higher but it's kind of good to know that for the average Californian it's one in a hundred thousand now if somebody said your odds of dying or somebody to your family the odds are one in a hundred thousand if you go back to work you'd go back to work wouldn't you I think you would write one in a hundred thousand you'd say yeah that's good enough if it's one in a hundred you might say I'm not gonna kill one in a hundred people by going back to work cuz that's gonna be somebody I know right you know if 100 people died of coronavirus yeah that would include people you know but one in a hundred thousand maybe not all right now I've decided that the other thing is that males have a way higher chance of dying from coronavirus and females and they don't know exactly what's what the difference is you know something genetic but men are dying in a much higher rate than women and that wasn't a risk I was willing to take so from now until the coronavirus crisis has passed I'm going to identify as female it's not that I feel that way on the inside but I'm just trying to manage my coronavirus risk because I understand the corona virus is much more aggressive against men so just for a few months I'm going to identify female it's just it's only for statistical reasons only for health reasons then you know depending how I like it if I like it I might keep it but you know probably at the end of the summer I might go back all right there is still this weird fake ridiculous debate and the news about whether President Trump was ignoring the advice of his aides and not acting more aggressively on the coronavirus more early and the evidence they gave is this January 29th memo from Navarro who's getting a lot of credit by the way he's a PhD social scientist he knows how to read studies so even though he's not a health care guy he you know he can read the news he can read the statistics he can look at the studies so he wrote a memo saying oh we got big trouble with this coronavirus we should act aggressively two days later President Trump closed the airport and the news is trying to find some distance between January 29th and ade writing a you know persuasive memo that we should close the airport and two days later why the the aegis said it was a big problem but the but two days later the president acting aggressively exactly as the aide would have wanted and the president says he doesn't remember the memo but I imagine lots of people were reading the memo and you know maybe there was lots of conversation around it so I think the memo probably had some impact if only on other aides who took the message to him but I believe him when he says he doesn't remember seeing the memo now is there really any distance there it are those two days between January 29th and January 31st is that where you're gonna find out that the president wasn't listening to his aides for two days one of the biggest decisions in all of you know in all of the global you know problems in the world one of the biggest questions and within two days he took the recommendation from a top aide who is being credited with getting it right two days really really that that's where we're gonna we're gonna find that if the president waited two days to take the recommendation that was right and that's a criticism are you kidding me so here's something else I'm gonna tell you that I probably shouldn't but I will because I've been talking more about politics I've gotten you know to meet a lot of people and to see behind the curtain on a number of big stories so it's quite common that there will be a headline story and the news were reported one way and of course you know CNN reports it one way and Fox reports another but it's fairly common at this point that I already knew the story before it was in the news and I know the real story behind it it's not the story that anybody's reporting it happens fairly often and by the way if you know anybody who works let's say in a government or even for a big big company and you say hey tell me the real story about this big decision something that everybody knows about you almost always find out that the real story it's just never the one that's reported in the news because there's always some context that's deeply important that just doesn't get reported so the news you're getting from the left and the right are typically so out of context and wrong that neither of them are really telling you what's happening especially if it's reports about something that happen behind closed doors now if it's a you know a hurricane or something everybody gets that right but if it's a report about what somebody said or did or felt or thought behind closed doors when not many people are watching and there's various anonymous reports and stuff like that I wouldn't trust either the reporting on the left of the right so my experience is that every time every time you can get the real story from the real people it's not the one that was reported in the news every time every time it's not the one that was reported by the news left or right so this is by way of saying that the story about how the president made his decision there's way more to the story than you know and it goes way beyond Peter Navarro so I was aware at the time of a disagreement within the staff about how seriously to treat it and how to advise the president and how he should and how he should deal with it so I can tell you just from a little bit I know from the peripheral that none of it's being reported accurately so I wish I could tell you a little bit more of what I know but it doesn't work that way because then you don't get to see behind the current anymore you know if if you report everything you see you don't get to see behind the curtain anymore and I like seeing behind the curtain so I'll just tell you the news is it's just so misleading that you wouldn't really know what was happening but it's more interesting than you think that's all I'm gonna say there's a funny story in the news there's some mayor and doesn't matter where I know Indiana or Illinois or someplace the mayor ordered the police to crack down on social gatherings so the police went to this bar and they basically told the people in the bar hey you can't be in this bar no social gathering go home and one of the people that they found at the bar was the mayor's wife poor guy so I think it's the only way somebody's saying in the comments so this poor mayor orders a crackdown on social gatherings the police find his wife at a bar and reportedly he told the police to you know treat her exactly the way they're treating everybody else and I don't think anybody got arrested probably just kind of sent home with a warning so that's bad luck and I'll tell ya if your wife's at a bar that's not the way you want to find out about it I'm just saying it's not the way you want to find out about it all right those are all the things I think I wanted to talk about today yeah somebody says I wonder if it was with another man well I'm sure it was a with a group but certainly you some questions are some questions are raised so since yesterday you all asked me to look at dr.

Shiva's opinions so I didn't look at I looked at this Twitter if he'd looked at some of his videos some of his tweets and stuff and I can't figure out what opinion that you're interested in because he has a pretty wide portfolio of opinions on different elements of different things about the whole thing and I didn't see anything there that I could figure out why you needed my opinion on it so maybe if somebody could be more specific I would give you an opinion so if you say so I can't I can't respond to what do you think of dr.

Shiva's opinion because there are a lots of them and the ones I looked at looked reasonable to me I didn't see anything that jumped out as being you know had a bounce I think there was you know may the the most controversial thing I saw was he was talking about vitamin A and vitamin D being helpful in these situations to which I say I don't know that he's probably got some science to that vitamin D is obviously scientifically compatible vitamin A maybe he knows more than I do well of course he knows more than I do on that topic so I don't really have an opinion on it is there something else specifically that you think I'm vouching if I understand his opinion on Falchi it is that fact he has some connections to some pharmaceutical companies that may have an interest and their pharmaceutical the solutions is that what you're talking about because why would I have an opinion on that it's either true or false right it's either true that dr.

Fauci has a financial working relationship with a pharmaceutical company that also has I think maybe their reservoir whatever that one is but that's just a known fact right so why would I have an opinion on it now somebody who works in the business that he works in it should be fairly fairly predictable that he would have connections with major pharmaceutical companies so wouldn't you expect anybody at his level to you know give speeches for you'd expect that at some point maybe he got funded for a trial you know maybe they supported him in some way when he was fighting AIDS so of course in the same reason that you could guarantee that a president Trump probably owns some investment as something to do with you know hydro chloric wind and probably I do too by the way I mean I probably have some you know fund that I don't know about that's got some stock in a company that maybe so I guess I don't have a comment about that it's something you should watch and if you think that that's the reason that foul Qi is saying that hydroxychloroquine is you know unproven and maybe we should wait well I would say he should say that no matter what so you'd have to find you'd have to find something that foul she has said or recommended that he would not say or recommend absent a connection to some pharmaceutical company so here's a question would doctor foul Qi insist that we should treat the hydroxychloroquine as an unproven thing would he insist the way he is if he did not have some connection to a pharmaceutical company that makes a competing drug and the answer is yeah he would every every doctor would a hundred percent of doctors would say exactly what if out she said hasn't gone through the required testing some doctors are using it the doctor can choose to use it there's a reason that they think it might work it's well tolerated everything vouched you said everything a hundred percent of what found she says any doctor would have said in that situation no matter what connection they had to the pharmaceuticals so but it is true then when people have big financial interests it can bias them it's just that if you're looking for it in whether he should be more Pro hydroxychloroquine I don't think you could ask any doctor to be that way I don't think that's not that you would ask any doctor ouchy is not promoting vitamins well he's promoted vitamin D can somebody fact check me on that has as doctor foul she never said that it would be good to take a walk and get some Sun get some vitamin D I don't know if he said that but I bet he is doctors I don't know if doctors push vitamin so much because there's a lot of competing information in vitamins all right doctors never say light exercise increases an immune system I've heard them say that I guess it depends which doctor you're talking about but I've heard medical professionals on TV during this crisis I've heard them say that light exercise is good for your immune response all right that's it for now I'll talk to you tonight you know the time 10:00 Eastern 7:00 Pacific talk to you then

[Music]

bump bump bump bump hey everybody come

on in it's almost time for coffee with

Scott Adams this is the place it is have

you noticed that not a single person who

regularly watches coffee with Scott

Adams has died from the corona virus

it's true if there's anybody on here who

can refute that claim please let me know

but for now I'm gonna say that watching

coffee with Scott Adams and the

simultaneous hip has some protective

qualities that are just as proven as

hydroxychloroquine unfortunately that's

true but it's a good thing you hear

because you can enjoy the protective

value of the simultaneous if evaluate is

a cup or a mug door glass a tanker

challenger stein a canteen junker flask

a vessel of any kind fill it with your

favorite liquid I like coffee enjoyed me

now for the unparalleled pleasure of the

dopamine the end of the day the thing

that makes everything including the

pandemic better

I just realized so you can't spell

pandemic with our damn probably doesn't

mean anything but aside for the

simultaneous up go the pain damage but I

guess you can't spell it without damn

but you can't spell it without damn wait

a minute wait a minute you can't spell a

pandemic without them all right so

here's the most fun story of the day

most of you have seen on social media a

chart that seemed to show that the

number of pneumonia deaths of this year

fell off a cliff just when we started

reporting the coronavirus deaths and the

implication is that regular pneumonia

was being classified incorrect

as coronavirus deaths because why would

the pneumonia death suddenly just

disappear when they've never done that

and the other year this month all the

other years had a somewhat you know a

similar curve except this one one year

Boop now to catch you up I saw that

chart and said to myself that looks like

a fake chart and so I challenged the

world to debunk it or not debunk it and

pretty soon there was a debunk er but

then as I reported yesterday there was a

debunk er of the D bunker so I started

out thinking well it's debunked and then

somebody debunked the debunking and I

thought well maybe it's not but I'm

gonna show you how to end an argument

you've never seen an argument ended as

elico eloquently as the one I'm gonna

end right now and this is with the help

of Tyler Morgan whose profile says he's

a freelance data scientist software

developer business analyst and mining

engineer so he's a freelance data

scientist so that's exactly the right

skill set to look at this chart and then

look at the data and tell us if this

chart has accurately reflected the data

all right so it's the right job the

right guy but wow talk about nailing it

I have to show it to you and I don't

know if you'll be able to see it I'm

gonna see can you see this if I hold it

let me see if I can I'll change the

lighting setting on here and darken it

and then I think you'll be able to

barely make it out because you have to

you have to see it moving so here's a

chart made by talented Tyler Morgan data

analyst and see if you let's see if you

can see it I hold it just right I think

you can all darn it oh this is such a

good chart I have to try one more time

to see if I could let you see that cuz

this is just so good

how about now Oh kind of all right sue

damn it I have to hold it just right

this is so annoying

correct oh I guess it probably color

adjusted that's what happened yeah all

right well this would be really

impressive if you could see it let me

describe it for those of you who are

just listening

so Tyler Morgan who is a freelance data

scientist took all the data from the CDC

and this is the source the same source

that the allegedly misleading graph used

and what he graphed it he graphed it in

the same timing as the other years had

been graphed in other words he built his

graph to show the the curve being built

up over time as his reporting came in

each month for prior years and what he

found somebody said turn blue light go

off let me try that Alexa turn it off

studio all right

so let's see if I go dark if you can see

that I didn't know almost there it is

you can almost see it moving in the dark

there all right so you see the little

line below it's actually a different

line for each year you can't tell that

they're different colors for the year

but what you can see is that the line

starts out seeming to have this

inexplicable dip when it reaches the

middle there this seems to be dipping

down but that's a fake dip caused by the

known lag and data so as the the data

comes in the curve just goes back to

where all the other curves are for the

prior years so this is I'm glad whoever

said to turn off the blue light that was

exactly the right answer so thank you

for doing that

but look how perfectly this ends the

argument because that line is for not

just this year but it's for every prior

year and you can see that every year at

this time there's an unexplained dip

which actually is explained by the lag

and

all of them will be the same so Alexa

had turned on studio sorry I'm

triggering all your devices at home but

since you don't have a studio probably

ordered anything hi

so I've never seen an argument ended so

perfectly have you have you ever seen an

argument on Twitter that actually came

to some kind of a conclusion you usually

you could argue forever and if we'd only

been arguing without the benefit of an

animated graph because it was the

animation that brought it alive now I'd

like to tie this point to the point I've

been making since day one about the task

force you've seen me just complaining

endlessly that the task force gives you

raw numbers and doesn't put them in

context so I don't care how many masks

you delivered unless I know how many you

need it doesn't tell me if you've got

ten percent of what you needed or 110

percent and my point is that they had

the wrong people working so that the

task force simply didn't have anybody on

their on their team who was as talented

as Tyler Morgan so you know guy on

internet just totally nails this data

visualization what honestly this is the

best data visualization I've ever seen

in my life in terms of getting you to

you know an answer in a way that just

ends the conversation it's probably the

best one I've ever seen so somebody like

him

should have been working with the task

force to give us a picture give us a

graph give us some kind of visual sense

of are we getting close to getting

enough supplies or not here's my sense

of it I think we're gonna overshoot the

supplies and I was happy when dr. Burks

was talking about the system because you

know I always obsess about a system you

know rather than saying it's our goal to

get everybody enough stuff I always say

well it's great to have a goal but

what's your system if you don't have a

system you're not going to achieve your

goal so dr. Brooks

the first time gave a little detail of

the system so apparently the at the

federal level they do have some

visibility into the hospitals it's

becoming apparent that at least part of

the problem for them getting numbers

about how much people have and how much

they need and I think this is very clear

now is that the hospitals were lying to

them and it must have been obvious in

other words hospitals were saying AHA

yeah we're gonna need a million masks

when they might have thought they needed

a hundred thousand but they didn't want

to run out so everybody's sort of

maximizing their their their selfish

individual Hospital benefit and that's

not that's not a flawed the people the

system causes everybody to try to

maximize their individual benefit and

you hope things work out in the long run

but in but if they start hoarding that

doesn't work you know capitalism works

even when everybody's selfish because

the the rules of capitalism and the

transparency and everything allowed that

to work there doesn't always work all

right so so Cuomo was saying he needed

30,000 ventilators so what I think is

that now that Burks has described the

system in which the federal government

has some visibility and they're

overruling the requests from the

individual areas which i think is

exactly what I wanted to hear because in

order to make sure that the places with

an immediate need can get you know get

ventilators and stuff transferred to

them is the government needs to look at

their numbers of all the hospitals

reporting and then act like an adult and

say you don't need a million of these I

know you want a million and I know you'd

feel better if you had a million and I

know you can pay for a million but maybe

this isn't statistically where we need a

million masks

so when Burks the doctor described that

that was their system where the federal

government was had jazz

ability that was the first thing I

needed to know that I didn't know I

didn't know that they had visibility and

they're also they were doubting doubting

the requests that makes me very

comfortable

I want the federal government to be

playing the adult and you know doubting

the the need of individual things and

putting a larger you know analytical

frame on it so they're thinking just

things with that system in place and

absent the government saying oh we have

a big emergency in this one supply if if

the government thought they were gonna

run out of supplies at this point

yesterday as of today's vantage point

I'm almost positive you would be hearing

something like this we'd you know we're

really short on this supply but you're

not hearing that right you're hearing

sort of a general we need more of

everything

the fact that it's only general and

nobody's saying my god we ran out of

this one thing we got to get these

tomorrow suggests that the government

might be comfortable that we'll have

enough everywhere and that comfort might

come entirely from their newfound

ability to overrule the hospitals and

move things where the federal government

but the National Guard at 7:00 so I get

it I'm gonna give the taskforce a C+ for

reporting about how many materials that

we need I did give them an F yesterday

based on the fact that they provided no

context for us to know whether the

numbers every reporting were enough for

too much but I'm revising that today

because now with the with the

understanding of that they have a system

the system is completely rational from

you know me as an observer I would say

yeah that's that is exactly the system

you need it

I believe it exists I don't think dr.

Brooks is you know lying or misleading

us that such a system exists so with the

knowledge that that system exists and

the fact that the government isn't

calling out some specific supply that's

the extra emergency and the fact that

the the estimates have gone way down

strongly suggests that our government

thinks they'll have enough of everything

would you agree by the way would you

agree they're just sort of reading the

hints suggests that the government does

think they'll still have enough now

that's probably a new opinion based on

the fact that the death count estimates

also went down and they built a system

for adjusting where you need things went

so I'm gonna give them a C+ because I

think there might be a valid reason for

not giving us the details one of them is

they don't believe the details coming

from the hospitals so if they were to

report it they would have to

simultaneously say but we don't think

the numbers are real we think all the

hospitals are lying to us to pad their

supplies although I would have been okay

with that but given that they have a

system I'm okay with it

without the details because I don't

think there's a problem and I also think

it's completely sensible if not

completely ethical no I will say this

let me say this if the government thinks

that we're gonna make way too many

ventilators and masks

they should still keep pushing as hard

as they are even if we're not going to

use them in the United States because

remember even though you know we want to

be America first it's a global problem

and if we don't get a control on the

rest of the globe or they don't get a

control on it it does come back to us

right so for selfish reasons you have to

help the world

it's an enlightened selfishness but you

do have to help the world so if we make

10 times more ventilators than we need

and we can share them with countries

that don't have enough I'd say that is

ethically and morally required I would

say that's required at this point what

do you say you know if we have enough of

the United States but we could make more

I think we're I think we're at eclis

morally required to make them if we can

so at this point I'm pretty good pretty

good with what the task force is doing

with supplies let's see I'm already

seeing the debate of the people

disagreeing whether the death counts are

going down because we estimated them

wrong from the beginning

or because the mitigation works right I

told you that this debate will never end

and when it's done we still never know

we'll never know I mean you might think

you know but you might not speaking of

death has estimates dr. Chris Murray

director of the Institute for Health

metrics and evaluation at the University

of Washington so there there's more than

one model of death but this model is at

least notable enough that it was it was

on TV

so and the TV news and their model says

that the new predicted death count is

around 80 mm so the u.s. death count by

this model which is one of the big ones

is lower to 80 mm now that's 82,000

gross so that would be the number of

people who were coded as dying from

crota virus in the United States but

over that period which will be a few

months there will also be and we know we

know

for sure that a number of regular deaths

will be avoided so a whole bunch of

regular deaths won't happened so you

have to net the 80 mm and how many

regular deaths won't happen during this

period I don't know the exact number but

it's in the tens of thousands so let's

say let's say it's fifty thousand so

let's say there are fifty thousand

avoided 82,000 coronavirus deaths so you

take the difference so you'd be has

32,000 deaths

net so and this is an official estimates

this is somebody who does this you know

it's not the Imperial Imperial model but

it's it's one of the ones that gets

thrown in that conversation and if it

gets down to thirty-two thousand deaths

that's just the current estimate that's

not the estimate assuming that we give

even better at reducing the deaths and

do you think that will get even better

you know do you think we'll do you think

that it will get even better I might so

whose estimate will be the closest when

we're all done remember my estimate was

five thousand or less net suppose the

number comes into the 32,000 net who had

the closest estimate the experts who

said maybe one hundred or two thousand

two hundred thousand maybe a million or

the cartoonist who would be somebody

says there is somebody restating it down

to the sixty thousand level oh my god I

feel like I'm gonna I'm gonna I'm gonna

kill somebody

somebody in the comments says have you

given up on your five thousand net

I'm not gonna block you because you're

just confused but let me tell you it's

always 5,000 net if you ask me in a

hundred years that will still be my

prediction it could be right it could be

wrong but it's never gonna be gross it

will always be net always has been 5000

that please never ask me again if I've

changed it because even if I update it I

will be saying that the 5000 net was

wrong so it would be it would just be a

new prediction if I change it but this

one is it's it's hard-coded that's my

prediction right or wrong now if I

change my prediction that would be a

second prediction that could be judged

right or wrong but the first one will be

wrong if I if I change it all right

there's also CNN is mocking the

conservative people for saying that the

death count may be over counted and this

is brian Stelter on CNN so I have to

read this because I think it's always

funny the way C and then biases their

their opinion stuff well I guess

opinions are biased by nature but this

is brian Stelter on CNN he says some of

the biggest names in right-wing media

are questioning the official carbon 19

death toll all right so some of the

biggest names in right-wing media so

later he goes on to name who he's

talking about these biggest names in

right-wing media and the alyssum he says

rush limbaugh and i'm thinking yeah yes

that's that's about the biggest name and

right wing well conservative anyway i

wouldn't call him great wait mark levin

yeah yeah big name on conservative taco

carlson of course britt hume yeah

and they throws in diamond and silk now

i love diving in silk and what they do

is tremendous i mean there's a there's a

reason that they're successful they're

very talented and charismatic and

they're great all right as far as the

in the same category with Tucker Carlson

and Brit Hume but yeah that's just

what's funny is that CNN likes to you

know just love everybody together so

that for their purposes anyway here's

this point he saying that all these

conservative types who he calls

right-wing but there that's I would just

say they're conservative they're

suggesting that the numbers might be

inflated in an effort to paint president

Trump as doing a worse job and I think

that the the evidence of that is that

dr. Burks said at the press conference

that if somebody comes in with two

conditions let's say diabetes and also a

corona virus and they die that they call

that a corona virus death not a diabetes

death if they come in with hypertension

and coronavirus they call it a corona

virus death now i think that a lot of

conservative people are saying wait a

minute between the fact that you've

already admitted that you can't tell

what they died of and yet you're coding

them all as coronavirus death just

because they have corona virus in them

there must be a lot of people dying

coincidentally you also have an

infection so they're saying well that's

an obvious way that you're over counting

and then they look at that graph that's

been debunked and they say well there it

is there's the proof dr. Burks has

admitted that they're coding them

coronavirus without really knowing and

then you look at the graph and it shows

there's a big drop-off in pneumonias

boom you put those two things together

and therefore it's obvious that the

number of pneumonia deaths have been

undercounted and that they they

illegitimately counted them as

coronavirus deaths and therefore the

number is inflated here's what's wrong

with that point of view everything

alright

so the whoever whoever is associated

with that point of view that's just dead

wrong as far as I can tell number one

remember

two points of data that they're using

number one is that graph that I talked

about earlier which is completely

debunked so in terms of looking at the

data as its presented on the graph it's

just fake there's that data so half of

the argument I don't know if this is

true for all the individuals that I

mentioned but in general half of the

argument is based on a graph which we

know is based on lagging data and not

accurate I won't call it a fake some

people some people object to becoming a

fake because that sounds like it was

intentionally faked but fake also just

means untrue so the graph is untrue

I don't think anybody necessarily to

that intentionally secondly what do you

make of the fact that dr. Brooks admits

in public that if somebody comes in with

two conditions either one of them could

kill you but if one of them is

coronavirus they call it a coronavirus

death does that inflate the number of

coronavirus deaths I think not but every

one of you thinks yes right probably

probably almost every one of you at

least 90% of you are saying well duh if

they come in with two things that could

kill you and you you don't know which

one killed you and they're not checking

they're not doing an autopsy

obviously that gets you accidentally

over counting right just obviously it

couldn't be more obvious right I

disagree

I'm gonna side with dr. Burks and here's

why

statistically speaking what are the odds

that your diabetes was gonna kill you

that day yeah what if you had diabetes

you probably didn't get it on Tuesday

you've probably had diabetes for 15

years if you have diabetes for 15 years

you go in one week for coronavirus and

you die is it statistically invalid to

say well we can't guarantee it was the

Kuroda my

but one of the odds that you've had this

problem for 15 years and this is the

week you died so I'm gonna say it is

true that you can't tell you cannot be a

hundred percent sure that somebody went

into the hospital died because of the

Kuroda virus but I do feel confident

there from a statistical point of view

it's probably well over ninety percent

accurate well over ninety percent

anybody disagree now add to that how

many people died at home of a heart

attack who also had corona virus but it

didn't make any difference because they

died of a heart attack and nobody checks

for a corona virus yeah that the EMTs

come to your house they see I had a

heart attack

you've never been diagnosed for corona

virus how did they code it well sure

they coded as a heart attack because

that's what it was so you have a troop

had this problem in coding these things

but it could work either way could it

could be a little you know a little

little push and pull not necessarily

equal but I'm just saying that there

might be inaccuracies in both directions

and in my opinion dr. Burks is on

completely sound statistical ground

because the odds that you've had cancer

for six months but this is the week you

died could be because of the cancer

could be but if you're also struggling

for oxygen and your lungs are collapsing

exactly like a corona virus patient and

you've got the what the ER doctors call

that distinguishing your red eyes

apparently your eyes get red around the

edges and it could be a coincidence that

you died of something else but I think

statistically I'm gonna say that there

is no evidence to support the

conservative point of view that there is

obviously over accounting there could be

over counting but the evidence that's

used to suggest that there is is

completely invalid somebody says Scott I

disagree

oh you're so close to getting blocked

if you had said Scott you're wrong I

would have blocked him because you know

I always tell you that you can tell me

why I'm wrong because even though you

don't have that much room in the text

you could suggest that the topic of

which I'm wrong so you might have said

for example I think you're forgetting

this factor um you don't have to go into

details you could say have you

considered this doesn't take many

characters but if you're just telling me

I'm wrong you get blocked

whoever said Scott I disagree you're

right on the edge of getting blocked but

I'm gonna let you go with a warning okay

who benefits from extended lockdown

crazy talk that's crazy talk alright

everybody who believes that the lockdown

is some kind of a clever scheme by some

kind of political or other operatives

in my opinion that's crazy talk and you

should just stop doing it alright now

that's not to say that there are people

who are thinking well if we had to have

a crisis might as well get something out

of it I'm sure there are those people

but in general I think nobody's doing

this for advantage I think people are

you know biased the way they're biased

CNN will always criticize the president

no matter what but you sort of discount

that in your mind speaking of the press

and the president there are some a

couple of funny things if you watch the

press conference

you saw President Trump go full Simon

Cowell now you could argue this Simon

Cowell is really just Trump because they

both like to insult their their critics

but the thing about Simon Cowell

is that he'd be he would be cruel to

people who were just you know we're just

trying to do their job you know just

trying to sing so he had so Simon Cowell

had that like special kind of cruelness

there wasn't anybody who did anything to

Simon Cowell president Trump generally

has the kind of cruelness where he's

just getting back at people who

criticized him first

so Simon

was worse in the sense that he'll

criticize somebody that didn't do

anything to him first so with that in

mind there was a reporter for I don't

know who it was I didn't recognize him

so the reporter starts to ask the

question of President Trump and he

starts he goes quote checking on oil

again today and then the president cuts

them off in mid-sentence he goes where

is it today give me the price and the

reporter says I'm not sure to be honest

and then Trump says how could he ask a

question would you know the price then

the reporter says I'll look it up and

Trump cuts him off in disgust just let

me go to somebody else it was it was the

coldest thing I've ever seen the

president do once the price of oil you

don't know I'll go to somebody who knows

how to ask a question and oh my god I

was watching that and I just thought to

myself oh my god because I was putting

myself in the shoes of this reporter and

again I don't know what Letty was from

maybe some maybe somebody here can tell

me but since they have to take turns

even to getting into the press room so

first of all it's the hardest thing in

the world to get into the room in in a

normal time in a normal time it'd be

hard to be important enough to be in

that room with the president at the

press conference but because of social

distancing they're only letting them sit

you know every third chair or whatever

it is so to get into the room under

these conditions is very rare and I

didn't recognize him so I don't know if

he's ever been in the room before it

might have been the first time he's ever

asked the question to the president on

live TV I don't know that but I've never

seen him before and I'm thinking it

might be imagined what his day was like

the reporter imagined when he found out

okay is this very rare honor but you're

gonna be in the room can be national TV

and it's not a regular press conference

the whole country in fact the whole

world is watching these these are really

highly rated only a few of you are

chosen the end of all the reporters in

the world

you're one of the I don't know 810 how

many were in the room and you get to ask

a question on national TV make it good

make it good this is your moment to

shine checking on the oil yep

where is it give me the price I'm not

sure to be huh how can he ask you a

question would you drop the price I'll

look it up let me just go to someone

else oh my god now I've said before that

I could watch this all day long and it's

true because I think the president knew

what I don't let this person was problem

and he probably knew in advance it

wasn't going to be a real question right

it probably wasn't gonna be a real

question it was just gonna be another

gotcha question I'm guessing the

president sniffed it out because of who

he worked for the reporter so that was

pretty funny the other repressed failure

is there's reporting that President

Trump could gain financially by the

hydroxychloroquine drug and apparently

it's true it's true apparently the

president could gain financially if

people use this drug that he's promoting

that has not passed all the scientific

clinical tests sounds pretty bad doesn't

it president the United States promoting

an unproven drug that he has a financial

interest in Wow Wow the press nailed him

got him they got him this time let's see

how much how many millions did he does

he stand to make on this well let's see

it's a blind trust and it's a managed

portfolio so he doesn't directly on the

stock it's in a managed basket of stocks

by some other company that doesn't

investing for him and how much more

percentage well if you do the math it

looks like the president if everything

went well instead if he you know their

stock went up I think the president

could stand to and this is just an

estimate I mean I could be off a little

bit but I think this the president

stands to make hundreds of dollars

hundreds yea hundreds of dollars now not

hundreds of millions of dollars based on

the amount of stock he owns indirectly

through a fund that owns lots of stocks

including this one according to Mike

Serta who bothered to do the math

and it basically tweets shamed the the

rest of the media for not even bothering

to do the math yeah apparently the game

could be all of maybe a few hundred

dollars if everything went right you

know best case scenario President Trump

could make hundreds of dollars off of

this that was world news world news they

could make hundreds of dollars if

everything went right so your press has

not been covering themselves with glory

let's talk about Pope Francis you know

it's good that we have these religious

and moral leaders because when you have

a big crisis an emergency they they can

be very helpful you know and normal

times are helpful but you really need a

moral and spiritual leader like the Pope

to really get on board and be useful

during this time of emergency so here's

what he said Pope Francis has said that

the corona virus pandemic is one of

quote

nature's responses to humans ignoring

the current ecological crisis ok I take

back everything I said it turns out that

our moral and religious leaders are no

use whatsoever an emergency may be

making it worse possibly but nice try

Pope Francis thanks for playing

that didn't work out let's see what else

is going on I gotta check that number of

deaths it see if it really got really

got lowered now I tweeted provocatively

I tweeted provocative

this and I have to read you my tweet in

the exact wording because if you don't

do the exact wording it doesn't work I

said I would never compare President

Trump to Jesus but it is worth noting

that they are somewhat comparable in

terms of curing illnesses I mean you

know talking about the democratic

representative who who credits President

Trump with saving her life by

recommending the hydroxychloroquine and

then I go on it said and to be fair I

don't think Jesus could have come back

after the Access Hollywood tape if you

think about it it was pretty miraculous

but overall Jesus is way way better than

Trump so I want to be very clear I'm not

comparing Trump to Jesus it's just sort

of objectively true that Trump is gonna

have some cures Jesus had some cures but

we're not keeping score we're not

keeping score I'm not saying he's better

than Jesus come on don't even think that

I'm just saying that they both have some

cures and they're coming back from the

Access Hollywood tape I don't think

anybody expected that come back so just

pointing it out

but overall overall just so we're on the

same page here overall Jesus is way way

better than Trump we all agree on that

right okay glad we're on the same page

so the the New York City Health

Department they've been asked whether it

was safe to have sex during the

coronavirus thing and so they issued

some guidelines so this is the New York

City Health Department and they they

said that you should they recommend that

you're only get intimate with someone in

your household

along with oh well I can't say this word

cuz your kids are home but this is

coming from a you know an official

government source the New York City

Health Department so let's put it this

way the the other thing that they

recommend

the last part of the word is Bayesian

the first part of the word is bastard so

that's what they recommend either only

get intimate with someone who's already

in your household or you could do the

Bayesian thing first part master and I

thought to myself well I'm kind of

limited to people in my household my

fiance is in a different house sort of

Snickers and Boo my dog in my cat so I

held a little house meeting and I talked

to my dog and my cat and I said this

isn't me talking this is an official

government source and I said they're

recommending you can only get intimate

with somebody who's already in your

house so I was sort of feeling am out on

this and I got to know from both on mid

turns out they were both like no forget

about it and then they both recommend it

and this is weird I didn't see it coming

but the dog the dog recommended that I

do that Bayesian thing first word master

and when the dog said that to me I

thought are you kidding are you kidding

are you telling me that I've just spent

the last month completely alone in this

big house of mine and I could have been

doing that with all my free time my

Wi-Fi and my access to the Internet are

you telling me I could have been doing

that the whole time I was waiting for

some kind of a guideline and man was I

getting frustrated but thank you to the

New York City Health Department for EM

and my dog Snickers for giving me the

big okay there I'm just saying I feel a

lot better today I'm just feeling a lot

better today all right I looked at my

odds according to one list so my odds of

dying from the coronavirus because I

live in California

and apparently California is really

nailing it on this coronavirus stuff

really nailing it and so my odds of

dying as a Californian are one in a

hundred thousand one in a hundred

thousand now of course I'm in the

high-risk group so mine is actually

higher but it's kind of good to know

that for the average Californian it's

one in a hundred thousand now if

somebody said your odds of dying or

somebody to your family the odds are one

in a hundred thousand if you go back to

work

you'd go back to work wouldn't you I

think you would write one in a hundred

thousand you'd say yeah that's good

enough if it's one in a hundred you

might say I'm not gonna kill one in a

hundred people by going back to work cuz

that's gonna be somebody I know right

you know if 100 people died of

coronavirus yeah that would include

people you know but one in a hundred

thousand maybe not all right now I've

decided that the other thing is that

males have a way higher chance of dying

from coronavirus and females and they

don't know exactly what's what the

difference is you know something genetic

but men are dying in a much higher rate

than women and that wasn't a risk I was

willing to take so from now until the

coronavirus crisis has passed I'm going

to identify as female it's not that I

feel that way on the inside but I'm just

trying to manage my coronavirus risk

because I understand the corona virus is

much more aggressive against men so just

for a few months I'm going to identify

female it's just it's only for

statistical reasons only for health

reasons then you know depending how I

like it

if I like it I might keep it but you

know probably at the end of the summer I

might go back all right there is still

this weird fake ridiculous debate and

the news about whether President Trump

was ignoring the advice of his aides and

not acting more aggressively on the

coronavirus more early and the evidence

they gave

is this January 29th memo from Navarro

who's getting a lot of credit by the way

he's a PhD social scientist he knows how

to read studies so even though he's not

a health care guy he you know he can

read the news he can read the statistics

he can look at the studies so he wrote a

memo saying oh we got big trouble with

this coronavirus we should act

aggressively two days later President

Trump closed the airport and the news is

trying to find some distance between

January 29th and ade writing a you know

persuasive memo that we should close the

airport and two days later why the the

aegis said it was a big problem but the

but two days later the president acting

aggressively exactly as the aide would

have wanted and the president says he

doesn't remember the memo but I imagine

lots of people were reading the memo and

you know maybe there was lots of

conversation around it so I think the

memo probably had some impact if only on

other aides who took the message to him

but I believe him when he says he

doesn't remember seeing the memo now is

there really any distance there it are

those two days between January 29th and

January 31st is that where you're gonna

find out that the president wasn't

listening to his aides for two days one

of the biggest decisions in all of you

know in all of the global you know

problems in the world one of the biggest

questions and within two days

he took the recommendation from a top

aide who is being credited with getting

it right two days really really that

that's where we're gonna we're gonna

find that if the president waited two

days to take the recommendation that was

right and that's a criticism are you

kidding me so here's something else I'm

gonna tell you that I probably shouldn't

but I will because I've been talking

more about politics I've gotten you know

to meet a lot of people and to

see behind the curtain on a number of

big stories so it's quite common that

there will be a headline story and the

news were reported one way and of course

you know CNN reports it one way and Fox

reports another but it's fairly common

at this point that I already knew the

story before it was in the news and I

know the real story behind it it's not

the story that anybody's reporting it

happens fairly often and by the way if

you know anybody who works let's say in

a government or even for a big big

company and you say hey tell me the real

story about this big decision something

that everybody knows about you almost

always find out that the real story it's

just never the one that's reported in

the news because there's always some

context that's deeply important that

just doesn't get reported so the news

you're getting from the left and the

right are typically so out of context

and wrong that neither of them are

really telling you what's happening

especially if it's reports about

something that happen behind closed

doors now if it's a you know a hurricane

or something everybody gets that right

but if it's a report about what somebody

said or did or felt or thought behind

closed doors when not many people are

watching and there's various anonymous

reports and stuff like that I wouldn't

trust either the reporting on the left

of the right so my experience is that

every time every time you can get the

real story from the real people it's not

the one that was reported in the news

every time every time it's not the one

that was reported by the news left or

right so this is by way of saying that

the story about how the president made

his decision there's way more to the

story than you know and it goes way

beyond Peter Navarro so I was aware at

the time of a disagreement within the

staff about how seriously to treat it

and how to advise the president and how

he should and how he should deal with it

so I can tell you just from a little bit

I know from the peripheral that none of

it's being reported accurately so I wish

I could tell you a little bit more of

what I know but it doesn't work that way

because then you don't get to see behind

the current anymore you know if if you

report everything you see you don't get

to see behind the curtain anymore and I

like seeing behind the curtain so I'll

just tell you the news is it's just so

misleading that you wouldn't really know

what was happening but it's more

interesting than you think that's all

I'm gonna say there's a funny story in

the news there's some mayor and doesn't

matter where I know Indiana or Illinois

or someplace the mayor ordered the

police to crack down on social

gatherings so the police went to this

bar and they basically told the people

in the bar hey you can't be in this bar

no social gathering go home and one of

the people that they found at the bar

was the mayor's wife poor guy

so I think it's the only way somebody's

saying in the comments so this poor

mayor orders a crackdown on social

gatherings the police find his wife at a

bar and reportedly he told the police to

you know treat her exactly the way

they're treating everybody else and I

don't think anybody got arrested

probably just kind of sent home with a

warning so that's bad luck and I'll tell

ya if your wife's at a bar that's not

the way you want to find out about it

I'm just saying it's not the way you

want to find out about it all right

those are all the things I think I

wanted to talk about today yeah somebody

says I wonder if it was with another man

well I'm sure it was a with a group but

certainly you some questions are some

questions are raised so since yesterday

you all asked me to look at dr. Shiva's

opinions

so I didn't look at I looked at this

Twitter if he'd looked at some of his

videos some of his tweets and stuff and

I can't figure out what opinion that

you're interested in because he has a

pretty wide portfolio of opinions on

different elements of different things

about the whole thing

and I didn't see anything there that I

could figure out why you needed my

opinion on it so maybe if somebody could

be more specific I would give you an

opinion so if you say so I can't I can't

respond to what do you think of dr.

Shiva's opinion because there are a lots

of them and the ones I looked at looked

reasonable to me I didn't see anything

that jumped out as being you know had a

bounce I think there was you know may

the the most controversial thing I saw

was he was talking about vitamin A and

vitamin D being helpful in these

situations to which I say I don't know

that he's probably got some science to

that vitamin D is obviously

scientifically compatible vitamin A

maybe he knows more than I do

well of course he knows more than I do

on that topic so I don't really have an

opinion on it is there something else

specifically that you think I'm vouching

if I understand his opinion on Falchi it

is that fact he has some connections to

some pharmaceutical companies that may

have an interest and their

pharmaceutical the solutions is that

what you're talking about because why

would I have an opinion on that it's

either true or false right it's either

true that dr. Fauci has a financial

working relationship with a

pharmaceutical company that also has I

think maybe their reservoir whatever

that one is but that's just a known fact

right so why would I have an opinion on

it now somebody who works in the

business that he works in it should be

fairly fairly predictable that he would

have connections with major

pharmaceutical companies

so wouldn't you expect anybody at his

level to you know give speeches for

you'd expect that at some point maybe he

got funded for a trial

you know maybe they supported him in

some way when he was fighting AIDS so of

course in the same reason that you could

guarantee that a president Trump

probably owns some investment as

something to do with you know hydro

chloric wind and probably I do too by

the way I mean I probably have some you

know fund that I don't know about that's

got some stock in a company that maybe

so I guess I don't have a comment about

that it's something you should watch and

if you think that that's the reason that

foul Qi is saying that

hydroxychloroquine is you know unproven

and maybe we should wait well I would

say he should say that no matter what so

you'd have to find you'd have to find

something that foul she has said or

recommended that he would not say or

recommend absent a connection to some

pharmaceutical company so here's a

question would doctor foul Qi insist

that we should treat the

hydroxychloroquine as an unproven thing

would he insist the way he is if he did

not have some connection to a

pharmaceutical company that makes a

competing drug and the answer is yeah he

would every every doctor would a hundred

percent of doctors would say exactly

what if out she said hasn't gone through

the required testing some doctors are

using it the doctor can choose to use it

there's a reason that they think it

might work it's well tolerated

everything vouched you said everything a

hundred percent of what found she says

any doctor would have said in that

situation no matter what connection they

had to the pharmaceuticals so but it is

true then when people have big financial

interests it can bias them it's just

that if you're looking for it in whether

he should be more Pro hydroxychloroquine

I don't think you could ask any doctor

to be that way

I don't think that's not that you would

ask any doctor

ouchy is not promoting vitamins

well he's promoted vitamin D can

somebody fact check me on that has as

doctor foul she never said that it would

be good to take a walk and get some Sun

get some vitamin D I don't know if he

said that but I bet he is doctors I

don't know if doctors push vitamin so

much because there's a lot of competing

information in vitamins all right

doctors never say light exercise

increases an immune system I've heard

them say that I guess it depends which

doctor you're talking about but I've

heard medical professionals on TV during

this crisis I've heard them say that

light exercise is good for your immune

response all right that's it for now

I'll talk to you tonight you know the

time 10:00 Eastern 7:00 Pacific talk to

you then