Episode 225 Scott Adams - Prediction Versus Reality and Facts Don’t Matter
Reviewing the 2016 pre-election dire anti-Trump predictions North Korea peace progress Truth of the Kavanaugh situation is unknowable, so what to do? If accusation can’t be proven, it should be ignored I am Nancy! ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ I fund my Periscopes and podcasts via audience micro-donations on Patreon. I prefer this method over accepting advertisements or working for a "boss" somewhere because it keeps my voice independent. No one owns me, and that is rare. I'm trying in my own way to make the world a better place, and your contributions help me stay inspired to do that. See all of my Periscope videos here… https://www.pscp.tv/ScottAdamsSays/1nAKERDOwylGL Find my WhenHub Interface app here… https://interface.whenhub.com
Bump, bump, bump. Whoa, how's my shirt? Oh my god, my shirt's on inside out. Hey everybody, I'm wearing my shirt inside out, and if that doesn't tell you how tired I am, nothing will. There's nothing like realizing that your shirt is inside out after you've started the Periscope. Sorry I'm late. Fo…
View segment →These are the predictions before President Trump took office. He would deport 11 million undocumented aliens. I said he wouldn't. His critics said he would, because he said he would during the campaign. But of course he did not, and there's really no chance that that's going to happen. His critics…
View segment →Speaking of North Korea, so the sticking point with North Korea has been that North Korea is asking for some kind of a big concession in order to give up his nuclear weapons. Now there's not much we have to concede because we're the ones who want something. We're not the ones who have something to g…
View segment →Did I block the wrong person? Some of that stuff would have happened. I'll unblock her later. My Periscope is not showing them my Twitter feed. That might actually be my fault. I'm on a new device and there's a setting that I need. I'll unblock Nancy. And Nancy, I just can't do it right now. Or oka…
View segment →So let's drink to Nancy, shall we? Poor Nancy has been temporarily banned accidentally. Will you raise a mug and we will all drink to Nancy, who I will unblock as soon as I get off the Periscope. To Nancy. Simultaneous sip.
View segment →Oh, Nancy. Nancy's in a timeout, but apparently it wasn't Nancy's fault. It was my fault. Am I going to the Trump rally? I'm not, no.
View segment →So let's talk about Kavanaugh. So back in 2015 I reminded you on a regular basis, I said provocatively the facts don't matter and that they've never mattered. But we're gonna find that out in a way that we've never understood before. I think my prediction has come true, which is that the facts are n…
View segment →All right, I don't know that there's much more news because until we hear about this... oh let's talk about the FISA documents declassified. So apparently, you know, the president has declassified the FISA documents. The documents are out there I guess. And we don't know if that will be awesome or a…
View segment →All right, I don't have anything else to say. I'm gonna go do something else. And in the meantime I'll go unblock Nancy and everybody say we love you Nancy, we're so sorry. And I'll talk to you.
View segment →Bump, bump, bump. Whoa, how's my shirt? Oh my god, my shirt's on inside out. Hey everybody, I'm wearing my shirt inside out, and if that doesn't tell you how tired I am, nothing will. There's nothing like realizing that your shirt is inside out after you've started the Periscope. Sorry I'm late.
Four people had lots of speculation about what a Trump presidency would look like. Now I also had speculations, as most of you did. So let's... hey Colleen. Colleen said say my name, so I did. Don't try that trick again. It only works once.
So let's check our predictions and we'll see if the critics were more accurate or I was. And you're probably on the same page as me. So let's compare ourselves to the critics.
These are the predictions before President Trump took office. He would deport 11 million undocumented aliens. I said he wouldn't. His critics said he would, because he said he would during the campaign. But of course he did not, and there's really no chance that that's going to happen.
His critics said he would move us toward nuclear war. It appears the opposite has happened. We appear further from nuclear war than at any time. North Korea doesn't seem close to nuclear war. Russia seems to want to deal with us. And Iran has more pressure on it than it did before in developing nuclear weapons. So it seems to me that we are further from nuclear war than we've ever been. So my prediction is right. Critics were wrong.
There were people who, it's hard to believe, but people actually thought that President Trump would round up all the brown people and put them in concentration camps. I have seen no indication that the president is rounding up brown people to put them in concentration camps. I'm gonna say I was right on that one. Critics were wrong.
Critics said that President Trump would be committing much repression against the LGBTQ community. Haven't seen it. In fact, President Trump is, I believe, the most LGBTQ-friendly president we've had. And I say that because he came in favoring gay marriage. He's the first president — correct me if I'm wrong, and I might be wrong, but fact-check me — is President Trump the first president who came into office favoring LGBTQ marriage rights? I believe he is.
And nothing has happened. Nothing that's happened so far. Now somebody says he's appointed anti-LGBTQ judges. I haven't seen any rulings that would suggest that's a problem. And keep in mind that the judges he selects are constitutionalists, so they're only going to rule in favor of what's in the Constitution. All right, so we haven't seen any actual repression. But as somebody said, they're concerned about the judges that he's nominated. But that would be true of any conservative.
People said that there would be Russia collusion. I think we're close to the point where we can say that we can confirm that didn't happen, right? He's releasing the FISA emails, and it sort of looks like things are going to be wrapping up pretty soon. So his critics were probably wrong about Russia collusion. Doesn't seem to be any evidence. Even Bob Woodward couldn't find any.
Somebody said, are you kidding? People know I'm sorry. That's what it sounds like. Then there were people who said he was only in it for the money and that the presidency was just a trick to get richer. But I think probably that didn't happen. I haven't seen any indication that Trump's net worth is going up or that he got some deal he wasn't supposed to get or anything like that. The indications are he may have lost money.
All right, it was at least one economic Nobel person, Krugman, who said it would be an economic disaster when President Trump came into office. Opposite. The economy is doing better than ever. And then of course, you know, ISIS got taken care of and North Korea is probably in a better place than it's ever been.
Speaking of North Korea, so the sticking point with North Korea has been that North Korea is asking for some kind of a big concession in order to give up his nuclear weapons. Now there's not much we have to concede because we're the ones who want something. We're not the ones who have something to give up, in a sense. That's oversimplifying.
But there's talk now between North and South Korea, or at least there's speculation that they're talking about working toward declaring an end to the Korean War. And it seems to me that if North and South Korea and the US and the UN — you know, I guess you need a lot of people involved, probably the UN — to declare the end to the war, that that might be the gesture that allows Kim to get rid of his nukes. Because it's a different story if you just get rid of your nukes because there was pressure. That makes Kim look weak.
But if you get rid of your nukes because you won, that doesn't look the same. And Kim could claim victory in bringing an end to the Korean War, and it would actually be fairly legitimate in my opinion. I think a reasonable person could say that if the end of this process was a formal declaration of the end of the war, I think a reasonable observer could say that Kim made that happen through his nuclear program. And then he could disband it because he could say we made our point, we got the thing we wanted. Once we're unified we don't really need, you know, if we're working toward reunification we don't really need nuclear weapons because that would be like using them on yourself, right? You wouldn't nuke your own country if we were working toward reunification, even if it's a hundred-year plan for reunification.
So it seems to me... y'all would worship Hitler? Let's get rid of the Nazi. North Korea always had the option to declare peace, correct? North Korea always had the option to just say, oh we're peaceful. But it would look like they had just surrendered. Because if you declare peace against the superior force, well you don't have much negotiating room and it just sort of looks like a surrender.
But if you come to peace with a peer, a nuclear peer in some sense — a peer, not really, but in some sense they would both be nuclear powers — that looks different. You could sell that differently. And I think you could.
So you saw all of the predictions, the worst-case predictions that the chompers made, and it's been a few years now. Some of that stuff would have happened by now. Did I block the wrong person? Some of that stuff would have happened. I'll unblock her later.
My Periscope is not showing them my Twitter feed. That might actually be my fault. I'm on a new device and there's a setting that I need. I'll unblock Nancy. And Nancy, I just can't do it right now. Or okay, like let's see if I can't... what would happen if I do this? You know that doesn't work. All right, I'm in some mode. I can't get in there. Well, we'll get Nancy back.
Nancy, maybe she should not have said y'all would worship Nazis. That will get you blocked on here. Nancy's in a cage. So let's drink to Nancy, shall we? Poor Nancy has been temporarily banned accidentally. Will you raise a mug and we will all drink to Nancy, who I will unblock as soon as I get off the Periscope. To Nancy. Simultaneous sip.
Oh, Nancy. Nancy's in a timeout, but apparently it wasn't Nancy's fault. It was my fault. Am I going to the Trump rally? I'm not, no.
So let's talk about Kavanaugh. So back in 2015 I reminded you on a regular basis, I said provocatively the facts don't matter and that they've never mattered. But we're gonna find that out in a way that we've never understood before. I think my prediction has come true, which is that the facts are not influencing reality the way everybody thought they should.
Everybody doubted me. I told you from the beginning the facts don't matter. Now of course the facts do matter to the outcomes, right? So that's true. But in terms of how we think about our world, the decisions we make, who we believe, how we interpret things, facts don't matter.
Take for example Kavanaugh. Here's a situation where we will never know what happened. Is that correct? We will never know if something happened like what the accuser says or something did not. It is unknowable, cannot be confirmed. So do the facts matter? Well they can't matter because we can't know them. And yet we imagine we do.
I would say if you did a survey of a hundred people you'd find at least half of them say they're pretty sure what happened. But they can't be. You know some of those people would say I'm sure it happened, she wouldn't say it otherwise. And other people would say I'm sure it didn't happen, look how coincidentally this happens at this timing and she can't possibly remember that. So the facts don't matter.
So what do you do in a situation where you're in a reality where you have to make a decision about the Supreme Court nomination? You have to make some decision, but a very important fact can't be known. What do you do? Here's what you do. You honor the system, because you can't know the facts.
Why don't you say more about that? If you can't know the facts or people won't agree on the facts, you have to replace the facts which can't be known with a system which is credible. Because if we can't agree on the facts, maybe we can agree that the way we arrived at the decision was a good system.
What would be a good system in the case of Kavanaugh and the accusations against him? There's only one good system that makes sense. The system is if you can't prove it, you have to ignore it. That's the system. Because that's the system you would all want to apply to you, right? Would you not want that system to apply to you if you were in his position and there was an unproven accusation which can never be proven? What system would you say? Well that would be fair. Doesn't matter who it is. That system would be fair.
And so if you're asking yourself, you know, let's say you're in Congress and you're saying to yourself what should we do with this Kavanaugh thing because it might be true and it might not be true. Here's what you should do. You should ignore whether or not it's true. It's just not part of your decision. That's the hard part.
But if you're being rational and you're trying to maintain a civilization that works in these situations, you have to default to the system. You have to take a system stand. That is the system you would want applied to other people in other situations that are somewhat similar. And the system is no evidence, no penalty. Well, evidence is the wrong word. Anything that can't be proven, you have to treat it like it didn't happen.
And so the Kavanaugh vote, if some of the senators who are allegedly potential no votes, if they vote against him because of the accusation, I believe they've failed you even if they're right. Because that part we can't know. But they have failed you if they choose guessing about the facts or making a decision based on the facts. If they make a decision based on their opinion of the facts or the likelihood that the facts could be true or false, they have failed you. Because they should make the decision based on the process, the system. And the system unambiguously requires us to not penalize him for something that can't be known. If it can't be known, you can't be penalized for it, period. That's the system you want to live under. It's the only credible system. And even if it doesn't give you the right answer every time, you still have to use it, period. That's my take.
All right, if somebody's saying I'm with Nancy, preponderance of evidence requires 51%. Yeah, we're not in a preponderance of evidence situation because there's one piece of evidence and nobody will agree whether it's persuasive or not. Pattern of behavior? Yeah, you know I would say that all of that stuff around the decision, you know people are trying to argue well what about the women who said he didn't do anything, what about his friend who was there who said this, what about her memory wasn't complete, she didn't mention Kavanaugh until later, what about why did she wait until this point. There's all these what abouts. And I would say you should treat all of it the same. It shouldn't matter to the decision because it doesn't lead you to any kind of a certainty or even preponderance of likely certainty or anything like that. So you've got to use the system. And the system says unproven has to be ignored.
All right, explain sort of its credible accusation thing. Yeah, so the phrase that the anti-Trumpers, anti-Kavanaugh people are using is credible accusations. And that's a clever way to add credibility to an accusation simply by... I saw a funny comment. Somebody said I am Nancy. Sort of like I am Spartacus. I am Nancy. All right, you get the funniest comment of the day award.
I have not seen the new Project Veritas tape. Let me make a prediction about the Project Veritas tape that I haven't seen. It's gonna be ambiguous. It's a dud. Somebody said all right without seeing it or hearing anything about it I'm gonna say it's gonna be ambiguous. All right.
So Mike's gonna... Mitch said we're talking about credible accusations. Yeah, calling something a credible accusation. It's the word credible plus accusation. So it's a very clever way to persuade without the facts. So strategy-wise it's really good, but it's also evil. It's totally evil, but it's good persuasion if you don't mind evil with your persuasion.
All right, your comments are extra funny. I don't know how this Nancy situation... well you know although we saw here in the Periscope that Nancy did not probably cause any crimes on Periscope, but Nancy was incredibly accused. Nancy, you were credibly accused. See what that does? It just turns Nancy into guilty by having that credibly part in front of accused. I am Nancy.
All right, I don't know that there's much more news because until we hear about this... oh let's talk about the FISA documents declassified. So apparently, you know, the president has declassified the FISA documents. The documents are out there I guess. And we don't know if that will be awesome or a big nothing. But it's so disappointing it's gonna take so long to see it because it's got to be approved by 12 different people. They have to look at everything and they've all got to sign off and you know it's different people looking at different parts of it. It's just gonna be this big mess of trickle. So it's not really going to have the great news moment that we expect. Yeah, I think it'll be a big nothing probably. But I like the fact that the president did it because people wanted it and we wanted transparency and so he gave it to us.
For Nancy, the seriousness of the accusation was more important than the evidence. Somebody said there are many funny Nancy comments on here today. Right, if you're listening to this on podcast I'm sorry because half of the fun is reading the comments and you won't hear them on the podcast.
All right, I don't have anything else to say. I'm gonna go do something else. And in the meantime I'll go unblock Nancy and everybody say we love you Nancy, we're so sorry. And I'll talk to you.
bump bump bump bone how's my shirt oh my god my shirts on the inside out hey everybody I'm wearing my shirt inside out and if that doesn't tell you how tired I am nothing will there's nothing like realizing that your shirt is inside out after you've started the periscope but sorry I'm late four people had lots of speculation about what a trump presidency would look like now I also had speculations as most of you did so let's hey Colleen Colleen said say my name so I did don't try that don't try that trick again it only works once so let's check our predictions and we'll see if the critics were more accurate or I was and you're probably on the same page as me so let's compare ourselves to the critics so these are the predictions before President Trump took office he would deport 14 million undocumented aliens I said he wouldn't his critics said he would because he said he would during the campaign but of course he did not and there's really no chance that that's going to happen and his critics said he would move us toward nuclear war it appears the opposite has happened we appear further from nuclear war than at any time North Korea doesn't seem close to nuclear war Russia seems to want to deal with us and Iran has more pressure on it than it did before in developing nuclear weapons so it seems to me that we are further from nuclear war than we've ever been so my prediction is right critics there were people who it's hard to believe but people actually thought the president Trump would round up all the brown people and put them in concentration camps I have seen no indication that the president is rounding up brown people to put them in concentration camps I'm gonna say I was right on that one critics were wrong critics said the president Trump would be committing much repression against LGBTQ community haven't seen it in fact president Trump is I believe the most LGBTQ friendly president we've had and I say that because he came in favoring gay marriage he's the first president correct me if I'm wrong and I might be wrong but fact check me is President Trump the first president who came into office favoring LGBTQ marriage rights I believe he is and nothing has happened nothing that's happened so far now somebody says he's he's appointed anti LGBTQ judges I haven't seen any rulings that would suggest that's a problem and keep in mind that the judges he he selects our constitutionalists so their own they're only good out of favor what's in the Constitution all right so we haven't seen any actual repression but as somebody said they're concerned about the judges that he's nominated but that would be true of any any conservative people said that there would be Russia collusion I think we're close to the point where we can say that we can confirm that didn't happen right he's releasing the the FISA emails and sort of looking like things are going to be wrapping up pretty soon so his critics probably probably wrong about thrush occlusion doesn't seem to be any evidence even Bob Woodward couldn't find any somebody said are you kidding people no I'm sorry that's what troubled Raymond sounds like then there were people who said he was only in it for the money and that it was really just the presidency was just a trick to get richer but I think probably that didn't happen I haven't seen any indication that that Trump's net worth is going up or that he got some deal he wasn't supposed to get or anything like that yeah the indications are he may have lost money all right it was at least one economic or nobel economic person Krogman who said it would be an economic disaster when President Trump came into office opposite economy is doing better than ever and then of course you know Isis got taken care of and North Korea is probably in a better place it's ever been speaking of North Korea so the the sticking point with North Korea sorry has been that North Korea is asking for some kind of a big concession in order to give up his nuclear weapons now there's not much we have to concede because we're the ones who want something we're not the ones who have something to give up in a sense that's oversimplifying but there's talk now between North and South Korea or at least there's speculation that they're talking about working toward declaring an end to the Korean War and it seems to me that if North and South Korea and the US and the UN you know I guess you need a lot of people involved probably the UN to declare the end to the war that that might be the gesture that allows Kim to get rid of his nukes because it's a different story if you just get rid of your nukes because there was pressure that makes Kim look weak but if you get rid of your nukes because you won that doesn't look the same and Kim could claim victory in bringing an end to the Korean War and it would actually be fairly legitimate in my opinion it would I think a reasonable person could say that if the if the end of this process was a formal declaration of the end of the war I think a reasonable observer could say that Kim made that happen through his nuclear program and then he could disband it because he could say we made our point we got the thing we wanted once we're unified we don't really need you know if we're working toward reunification we don't really need nuclear weapons because that would be like using them on yourself right you wouldn't nuke your own country if we were working toward reunification even if it's a hundred year plan for reunification so it seems to me y'all would worship Hitler let's get rid of the Nazi North Korea always had the option to declare peace correct North Korea always have the option to just say oh we're peaceful but it would look like they had just surrendered because if you declare peace against the superior force well you don't have much negotiating room and it just sort of looks like a surrender but if you if you come to peace with a peer a nuclear peer in some sense appear not really but in some sense they would both be nuclear powers that looks different you could sell that differently and I think you could so you saw all of the predictions that the worst case predictions that the MT chompers made and it's been a few years now some of that stuff would have happened now did I do I block the wrong person some of that stuff would have happened all unblocker later my periscope is not showing them my Twitter feed that might actually be my fault I'm on a new device and there's a setting that I need I'll unblock Nancy and Nancy I just can't do it right now or okay like let's see if I can't what would happen if I do this you know that doesn't work all right I'm in some mode I can't get in there well getting it will get Nancy back Nancy maybe she should not have said yeah all wood would worship Nazis that will get you blocked on here Nancy's in a cage so let's drink to Nancy shall we poor Nancy has been temporarily banned accidentally will you will you raise a mug and we will all drink to Nancy who I will unblock as soon as I get off the periscope - Nancy simultaneous up Oh Nancy Nancy's in a timeout but apparently it wasn't Nancy's fault it was my fault am I going to the Trump rally I'm not no so let's talk about Kavanagh so back in 2015 I remind you on a regular basis I said provocatively the facts don't matter and that they've never mattered but we're gonna find that out in a way that we've never understood before I think my prediction has come true which is that the facts are not influencing reality the way everybody thought they should everybody about me I told you from the beginning the facts don't matter now of course the facts do matter to the outcomes right so that's true but in terms of how we think about our world the decisions we make whoo-wee whoo-wee back politically how we interpret things facts don't matter take care Cavanaugh here's a situation where we will never know what happened is that correct we will never know if something happened like what the accuser says or something did not it is unknowable cannot be confirmed so do the facts matter well they can't matter because we can't know them and yet we imagine we do I would say if you did a survey of a hundred people you'd find at least half of them say they're pretty sure what happened but they can't be you know some of those people would say I'm sure it happened she wouldn't say it otherwise and other people would say I'm sure it didn't happen look how coincidentally you know this happens at this timing and she can't possibly remember that so the facts don't matter so what do you do in a situation you're in a reality where you have to make a decision about the Supreme Court nomination you have to make some decision but a very important fact can't be known what do you do here's what you do you honor the system because you can't know the facts okay why don't you say more about that if you can't know the facts or people won't agree on the facts you have to replace the facts which can't be known with a system which is credible because if we can't agree the facts maybe we can agree that their way we arrived that the decision was a good system what would be a good system in the case of Kavanaugh and the accusations against them there's only one good there's only one system that makes sense the system is if you can't prove it you have to ignore it that's the system because that's the system you would all want to apply to you right would you not want that system to apply to you if you were in his position and there was a an unproven accusation which can never be proven what system would you say well that that would be fair doesn't matter who it is that system would be fair and so if you're asking yourself you know let's say you're in Congress and you're saying to yourself what should we do with this Cavanagh thing because it might be true and it might not be true here's what you should do you should ignore whether or not it's true it's just not part of your decision that's the hard part but if you're being rational and you're trying to maintain a civilization that works in these situations you have to default to the system you have to take a system stand that is the system you would want applied to other people in other situations that are somewhat similar and the system is no evidence no penalty well evidence this is the wrong word anything that can't be proven you have to treat it like it didn't happen and so the Cavanagh vote if some if if some of the Senators who are you know allegedly potential no votes if the if they vote against and because of the accusation I believe they've failed you even if they're right because that part we can't know but they have failed you if they choose guessing about the facts or making a decision based on the facts if they make a decision based on their opinion of the facts or the likelihood that the facts could be true or false they have failed you because they should make the decision based on the process the system and the system unambiguously requires us to not penalize him for something that can't be known if it can't be known you can't be penalized for it period that's the system you want to live under it's the only credible system and even if it doesn't give you the right answer every time you still have to use it period that's my take all right if somebody's saying I'm with Nancy preponderance of evidence requires 51% yeah we're not in a preponderance of evidence situation because there's one piece of evidence and nobody will agree whether it's persuasive or not pattern of behavior yeah you know I would say that all of that stuff around the decision you know people are trying to argue well what about the women who said he didn't do anything what about his friend who was there who said this is that what about her memory wasn't complete she didn't mention Kavanagh until later what about why did she wait until this point there's all these water bouts and I would say you should treat all of it the same it shouldn't matter to the decision because it doesn't lead you to any kind of a certainty or even preponderance of you know likely certainty or anything like that so you got to use the system and the system says unproven has to be ignored all right explain sort of itches credible accusation thing yeah so the phrase that the anti-trump errs anti Cavanaugh people are using is credible accuse accusations and that's a clever way to add credibility to an accusation simply by I saw a funny comment somebody said I am Nancy - sort of like I am Spartacus I am Nancy all right you get the funniest comment of the day award I have not seen the new project Veritas tape let me make let me make a prediction about the project Veritas tape that I haven't seen it's gonna be ambiguous it's a dud somebody said alright without seeing it where that was seeing anything not hearing anything about it I'm gonna say it's gonna be ambiguous all right so Mike's gonna Mitch said we're talking about credible accusations yeah calling something a credible accusation as the word credible - accusation so it's a very clever way to persuade without with them facts so strategy wise it's really good but it's also evil it's totally evil but it's good persuasion if you don't if you don't mind evil with your persuasion all right your comments are extra funny I don't know I don't know how this Nancy situation well you know although we saw here in the periscope that Nancy Nancy did not probably cause any crimes on periscope but Nancy was incredibly accused Nancy you were credibly accused see what that does it just turns Nancy into guilty by having that credibly part in front of accused I am Nancy all right I don't know that there's much more news because until we hear about this oh let's talk about the FISA documents Declassified so apparently you know the president has Declassified the FISA documents documentation Zoar or these the documents are rounded I guess and we don't know if that will be awesome or a big nothing but it's so disappointing it's gonna take so long to see it because it's got to be approved by 12 different people have to look at everything and they've all got to sign off and you know it's different people looking at different parts of it it's just gonna be this big mess of trickle so it's not really going to have the you know the great news moment that we expect yeah I think it'll be a big nothing probably but I like the fact that the president did it because people wanted it and we wanted transparency and so he gave it to us for Nancy the seriousness of the accusation was more important than the evidence somebody said there are many funny Nancy comments on here today right if you're listening to this on podcast I'm sorry because half of the fun is reading the comments and you won't hear them on the podcast alright I don't have anything else to say I'm gonna go do something else and in the meantime I'll go unblock Nancy and everybody say we love you Nancy we're so sorry and I'll talk to you
bump bump bump bone how's my shirt oh my
god my shirts on the inside out
hey everybody I'm wearing my shirt
inside out and if that doesn't tell you
how tired I am
nothing will there's nothing like
realizing that your shirt is inside out
after you've started the periscope
but sorry I'm late
four people had lots of speculation
about what a trump presidency would look
like now I also had speculations as most
of you did
so let's hey Colleen Colleen said say my
name so I did don't try that don't try
that trick again it only works once so
let's check our predictions and we'll
see if the critics were more accurate or
I was and you're probably on the same
page as me so let's compare ourselves to
the critics so these are the predictions
before President Trump took office he
would deport 14 million undocumented
aliens I said he wouldn't his critics
said he would because he said he would
during the campaign but of course he did
not and there's really no chance that
that's going to happen and his critics
said he would move us toward nuclear war
it appears the opposite has happened we
appear further from nuclear war than at
any time North Korea doesn't seem close
to nuclear war Russia seems to want to
deal with us and Iran has more pressure
on it than it did before
in developing nuclear weapons so it
seems to me that we are further from
nuclear war than we've ever been so my
prediction is right critics
there were people who it's hard to
believe but people actually thought the
president Trump would round up all the
brown people and put them in
concentration camps I have seen no
indication that the president is
rounding up brown people to put them in
concentration camps I'm gonna say I was
right on that one critics were wrong
critics said the president Trump would
be committing much repression against
LGBTQ community haven't seen it in fact
president Trump is I believe the most
LGBTQ friendly president we've had and I
say that because he came in favoring gay
marriage he's the first president
correct me if I'm wrong and I might be
wrong but fact check me is President
Trump the first president who came into
office favoring LGBTQ marriage rights I
believe he is and nothing has happened
nothing that's happened so far now
somebody says he's he's appointed anti
LGBTQ judges I haven't seen any rulings
that would suggest that's a problem and
keep in mind that the judges he he
selects our constitutionalists so their
own they're only good out of favor
what's in the Constitution all right so
we haven't seen any actual repression
but as somebody said they're concerned
about the judges that he's nominated but
that would be true of any any
conservative people said that there
would be Russia collusion I think we're
close to the point where we can say that
we can confirm that didn't happen right
he's releasing the the FISA emails and
sort of looking like things are going to
be wrapping up pretty soon so his
critics probably probably wrong about
thrush occlusion doesn't seem to be any
evidence even Bob Woodward couldn't find
any somebody said are you kidding people
no I'm sorry that's what troubled
Raymond sounds like then there were
people who said he was only in it for
the money and that it was really just
the presidency was just a trick to get
richer but I think probably that didn't
happen I haven't seen any indication
that that Trump's net worth is going up
or that he got some deal he wasn't
supposed to get or anything like that
yeah the indications are he may have
lost money all right it was at least one
economic or nobel economic person
Krogman who said it would be an economic
disaster when President Trump came into
office opposite economy is doing better
than ever and then of course you know
Isis got taken care of and North Korea
is probably in a better place it's ever
been
speaking of North Korea so the the
sticking point with North Korea sorry
has been that North Korea is asking for
some kind of a big concession in order
to give up his nuclear weapons now
there's not much we have to concede
because we're the ones who want
something we're not the ones who have
something to give up in a sense that's
oversimplifying but there's talk now
between North and South Korea or at
least there's speculation that they're
talking about working toward declaring
an end to the Korean War
and it seems to me that if North and
South Korea and the US and the UN you
know I guess you need a lot of people
involved probably the UN to declare the
end to the war that that might be the
gesture that allows Kim to get rid of
his nukes
because it's a different story if you
just get rid of your nukes because there
was pressure that makes Kim look weak
but if you get rid of your nukes because
you won that doesn't look the same and
Kim could claim victory in bringing an
end to the Korean War and it would
actually be fairly legitimate in my
opinion it would I think a reasonable
person could say that if the if the end
of this process was a formal declaration
of the end of the war I think a
reasonable observer could say that Kim
made that happen through his nuclear
program and then he could disband it
because he could say we made our point
we got the thing we wanted once we're
unified we don't really need you know if
we're working toward reunification we
don't really need nuclear weapons
because that would be like using them on
yourself right you wouldn't nuke your
own country if we were working toward
reunification even if it's a hundred
year plan for reunification so it seems
to me y'all would worship Hitler
let's get rid of the Nazi
North Korea always had the option to
declare peace correct North Korea always
have the option to just say oh we're
peaceful but it would look like they had
just surrendered because if you declare
peace against the superior force well
you don't have much negotiating room and
it just sort of looks like a surrender
but if you if you come to peace with a
peer a nuclear peer in some sense appear
not really but in some sense they would
both be nuclear powers that looks
different you could sell that
differently and I think you could so you
saw all of the predictions that the
worst case predictions that the MT
chompers made and it's been a few years
now some of that stuff would have
happened now did I do I block the wrong
person some of that stuff would have
happened all unblocker later
my periscope is not showing them my
Twitter feed that might actually be my
fault I'm on a new device and there's a
setting that I need
I'll unblock Nancy and Nancy I just
can't do it right now or okay like let's
see if I can't what would happen if I do
this you know that doesn't work
all right I'm in some mode I can't get
in there
well getting it will get Nancy back
Nancy
maybe she should not have said yeah all
wood would worship Nazis that will get
you blocked on here Nancy's in a cage
so let's drink to Nancy shall we poor
Nancy has been temporarily banned
accidentally will you will you raise a
mug and we will all drink to Nancy who I
will unblock as soon as I get off the
periscope
- Nancy simultaneous up
Oh Nancy Nancy's in a timeout but
apparently it wasn't Nancy's fault it
was my fault
am I going to the Trump rally I'm not no
so let's talk about Kavanagh
so back in 2015 I remind you on a
regular basis
I said provocatively the facts don't
matter
and that they've never mattered but
we're gonna find that out in a way that
we've never understood before I think my
prediction has come true which is that
the facts are not influencing reality
the way everybody thought they should
everybody about me I told you from the
beginning the facts don't matter now of
course the facts do matter to the
outcomes right so that's true but in
terms of how we think about our world
the decisions we make whoo-wee whoo-wee
back politically how we interpret things
facts don't matter
take care Cavanaugh here's a situation
where we will never know what happened
is that correct we will never know if
something happened like what the accuser
says or something did not it is
unknowable cannot be confirmed so do the
facts matter well they can't matter
because we can't know them and yet we
imagine we do I would say if you did a
survey of a hundred people you'd find at
least half of them say they're pretty
sure what happened but they can't be you
know some of those people would say I'm
sure it happened she wouldn't say it
otherwise and other people would say I'm
sure it didn't happen look how
coincidentally you know this happens at
this timing
and she can't possibly remember that so
the facts don't matter so what do you do
in a situation you're in a reality where
you have to make a decision about the
Supreme Court nomination you have to
make some decision but a very important
fact can't be known what do you do
here's what you do you honor the system
because you can't know the facts okay
why don't you say more about that if you
can't know the facts
or people won't agree on the facts you
have to replace the facts which can't be
known with a system which is credible
because if we can't agree the facts
maybe we can agree that their way we
arrived that the decision was a good
system what would be a good system in
the case of Kavanaugh and the
accusations against them there's only
one good there's only one system that
makes sense the system is if you can't
prove it you have to ignore it that's
the system because that's the system you
would all want to apply to you right
would you not want that system to apply
to you if you were in his position and
there was a an unproven accusation which
can never be proven what system would
you say well that that would be fair
doesn't matter who it is that system
would be fair and so if you're asking
yourself you know let's say you're in
Congress and you're saying to yourself
what should we do with this Cavanagh
thing because it might be true and it
might not be true here's what you should
do you should ignore whether or not it's
true
it's just not part of your decision
that's the hard part
but if you're being rational and you're
trying to maintain a civilization that
works in these situations you have to
default to the system you have to take a
system stand that is the system you
would want applied to other people in
other situations that are somewhat
similar and the system is no evidence no
penalty
well evidence this is the wrong word
anything that can't be proven you have
to treat it like it didn't happen
and so the Cavanagh vote if some if if
some of the Senators who are you know
allegedly potential no votes if the if
they vote against and because of the
accusation I believe they've failed you
even if they're right because that part
we can't know but they have failed you
if they choose guessing about the facts
or making a decision based on the facts
if they make a decision based on their
opinion of the facts or the likelihood
that the facts could be true or false
they have failed you because they should
make the decision based on the process
the system and the system unambiguously
requires us to not penalize him for
something that can't be known if it
can't be known you can't be penalized
for it period that's the system you want
to live under it's the only credible
system and even if it doesn't give you
the right answer every time you still
have to use it period that's my take all
right
if somebody's saying I'm with Nancy
preponderance of evidence requires 51%
yeah we're not in a preponderance of
evidence situation because there's one
piece of evidence and nobody will agree
whether it's persuasive or not pattern
of behavior yeah you know I would say
that all of that stuff around the
decision you know people are trying to
argue well what about the women who said
he didn't do anything what about his
friend who was there who said this is
that what about her memory wasn't
complete she didn't mention Kavanagh
until later
what about why did she wait until this
point there's all these water bouts and
I would say you should treat all of it
the same it shouldn't matter to the
decision because it doesn't lead you to
any kind of a certainty or even
preponderance of you know likely
certainty or anything like that so you
got to use the system and the system
says unproven has to be ignored all
right
explain sort of itches credible
accusation thing yeah so the phrase that
the anti-trump errs anti Cavanaugh
people are using is credible accuse
accusations and that's a clever way to
add credibility to an accusation simply
by I saw a funny comment somebody said I
am Nancy - sort of like I am Spartacus I
am Nancy all right you get the funniest
comment of the day award I have not seen
the new project Veritas tape let me make
let me make a prediction about the
project Veritas tape that I haven't seen
it's gonna be ambiguous it's a dud
somebody said alright without seeing it
where that was seeing anything not
hearing anything about it I'm gonna say
it's gonna be ambiguous
all right so Mike's gonna Mitch said
we're talking about credible accusations
yeah calling something a credible
accusation as the word credible -
accusation so it's a very clever way to
persuade without with them facts so
strategy wise it's really good but it's
also evil
it's totally evil but it's good
persuasion if you don't if you don't
mind evil with your persuasion
[Music]
all right your comments are extra funny
I don't know I don't know how this Nancy
situation well you know although we saw
here in the periscope that Nancy Nancy
did not probably cause any crimes on
periscope but Nancy was incredibly
accused Nancy you were credibly accused
see what that does it just turns Nancy
into guilty by having that credibly part
in front of accused I am Nancy all right
I don't know that there's much more news
because until we hear about this oh
let's talk about the FISA documents
Declassified so apparently you know the
president has Declassified the FISA
documents documentation Zoar or these
the documents are rounded I guess and we
don't know if that will be awesome or a
big nothing but it's so disappointing
it's gonna take so long to see it
because it's got to be approved by 12
different people have to look at
everything and they've all got to sign
off and you know it's different people
looking at different parts of it it's
just gonna be this big mess of trickle
so it's not really going to have the you
know the great news moment that we
expect
yeah I think it'll be a big nothing
probably but I like the fact that the
president did it because people wanted
it and we wanted transparency and so he
gave it to us for Nancy the seriousness
of the accusation was more important
than the evidence somebody said there
are many funny Nancy comments on here
today right if you're listening to this
on podcast I'm sorry because half of the
fun is reading the comments and you
won't hear them on the podcast alright I
don't have anything else to say I'm
gonna go do something else and in the
meantime I'll go unblock Nancy and
everybody say we love you Nancy we're so
sorry and I'll talk to you
