Episode 2099 Scott Adams - Tucker's Rumored Plans, Climate Surprise, Bud Light Lessons, Proud Boys

foreign good morning everybody and welcome to the highlight of civilization it's called coffee with Scott Adams you've never had a better time you don't know that yet but just hold on hold on stay alive it's going to be amazing we've got so many topics and such you're going to be laughing you're going to be crying it will become a part of you and if you'd like that experience to be well even better than I just explained all you need is I got per mug or a glass a tanker chalices down at canteen jug or flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid I like coffee join me now for the unparalleled pleasure the dope being here the day the thing that makes everything better is called the simultaneous Sip and it's going to boost your dopamine you're oxytocin and maybe you're serotonin too and it goes and it goes like this so good all right let's talk about the news today we're going to start with a theme the theme is wait for it how smart this audience is you're going to be amazed at yourselves stop it stop it you're answering the questions before I even ask them how do you do it but we're going to take it out of the realm of just polling to see if you can generalize this ability to other things not just polling because I know you can guess poll answers miraculously if you don't believe that this audience can guess the result of a poll without saying I'm going to demonstrate it now watch Rasmussen did a poll a brand new poll talking about Biden's Age and what percentage of the respondents who were likely voters don't think Biden's age poses a serious problem for his re-election chances what you how did you do that you're all correct it's 25 percent 25 percent wow all right but that was an easy one that was an easy one don't get too cocky I want to see if you can do this next one okay uh the news is reporting that the ocean has uh warmed up considerably very unusual amount of warming somewhere suddenly here's your next question did the climate models predict this recent warning warning well how did you know that no they didn't but how did you know that oh how do you do this how are you all right yes the the scientists are baffled because their models did not did not see this coming all right uh so that's happening um let's see there was a Top-Up prosecutor who quit in St.

Louis so this is one of your Progressive prosecutors who's getting a lot of pushback for being uh soft on crime according to her critics so this is Miss Gardner Ms.

Gardner and she said she's going to quit the pressure from the public and politicians was too great and she's out of there now uh interesting side side note uh Ms.

Gardner was the city's first black circuit attorney here's the question for you all right this is going to be tougher each of these questions will go harder than one before did she claim that the real problem was racism against her go you're three for three how how do you do it you've got to teach me how you do this every one of these stories was a complete mystery to me I had no idea how many people would think Joe Biden's age had no difference whatsoever but it was 25 percent and then I didn't see this coming these are all surprises to me all right um let's talk about Bud Light so apparently the pushback against the Anheuser-Busch company I was pretty pretty strong I didn't realize how strong it was but some of it is not advised including a bomb threat on one of their facilities I guess the Anheuser-Busch is giving bonuses to their drivers because they're the delivery people are losing money because there's not as much many orders of Bud Light I guess uh two top Executives lost their job over the the pushback because they made the special can for Dylan Mulvaney trans uh activist I guess you'd say or a trans celebrity or something and um so I guess this raises another question do uh do men have any fight left in them yes turns out men have some fight left in them were you worried did it seem like men just gave up because I feel like we've gone through a period where men just said well it you can have whatever you want all right sure just just leave me alone all right you could have that yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah I don't like that but you can do that yeah yeah okay you can take something from me yeah I don't mind yeah the 2020-23 I'm going to declare as the you year this is the Year the men said you this is the year that men said we're going to put the brakes on went too far too far uh I will quit my job to make this point Tucker Carlson might have some things to say Bud Light is finding out that they push too far just too far it's too far congratulations all right um here's another one see if you can guess there's a new uh study about test scores um do you think all right so there's a new result about test scores for eighth grade students in the U.S um you haven't seen the story probably but see if you can guess did scores improve or get worse improve or get worse you did it again they got worse it's amazing I don't even think we need AI anymore clearly you're all advanced intelligence because you know the news before any of it is even reported how do you do it yeah it's way worse now one of the things that is not reported in this but I can throw this in the mix from my own experience now this may be a California thing more than other places but remember California and some of the southern states Florida for example even New York big immigration um destinations and they're big population centers now I can tell you that in the local schools where I live there are a number of new immigrant students who don't speak English you know they're trying to learn English at the same time they're trying to go to school now obviously they're not going to do as well obviously right through nobody's fault well baby Biden's fault but I don't I didn't see that calculated into the news but I can verify that at least locally it's a it's a big drag on the average scores why would you leave that out of the reporting now I don't know if that accounts for a little of it or a lot I don't know but it's very obviously in effect if you put a bunch of people who can't speak English into English-speaking classes what are you gonna expect it's going to be exactly what you think it is now that doesn't mean there's any problem it actually doesn't because the immigrants tend to be good citizens maybe it takes a generation before they catch up but they're very intent on catching up right the people I don't worry about are the people who went to school started from behind but have every intention of improving their lives give me all of those I'll take all the people who are very intent on improving their lives and willing to make great risks and sacrifice to do it I like that give me some more of that it is very expensive in the short run but they're good people who are going to add a lot so that's my opinion all right um Glenn Beck had an interesting comment about the uh I guess the firing of Taco Carlson although he's technically not fired he's just not on a show and I didn't know this before but Black.

Rock as you know Black.

Rock the enormous Financial entity is the big promoter of ESG right so ESG would be Equity racial Equity other kinds of equity as well and also Environmental stuff now what I didn't know is that Black.

Rock owns 45 million shares of Fox News is that a lot 45 million shares is that enough to influence Fox News because what Glenn Beck left off is what percentage of the company that is 45 million a lot would that give them some kind of control over management I don't know I actually don't know the answer to that I don't know if that's a lot or not um I mean it's a lot in raw money I don't know if it's a lot in terms of control of the country okay I knew this wouldn't take long so people are doing the math already I have a such smart audience so people are saying fifteen percent nine percent somewhere in that range that's somewhere in that range is definitely where they can start influencing management would you agree if you own that much stock you probably do have some some little bit of control um uh no I haven't mentioned Tucker's plans yet so so does this seem like a coincidence to you because Glenn Beck is surfacing this and I think this is really good journalism if I could call it that because this was this is what I needed to know like this is right on point of understanding what's happening now it might not be the big variable so I'm not saying it's the one thing that caused things to happen I'm just saying that if you were Black.

Rock and the biggest problem you had with your ESG was what was the single biggest problem that Black.

Rock had Tucker Carlson he was their single biggest problem because he was on a nightly basis was injecting skepticism Into Climate and ESG and he was the only one brave enough you know to walk out on that lip so what did Black.

Rock do fairly recently I don't know how many months or years ago but fairly recently they bought up all this stock in Fox News and then Tucker Carlson went away is that a coincidence the The Entity which he criticized the most bought a interest in his company and then he was let go I don't know I mean I think you can make an argument that is not related you can make the argument but follow the money is just so predictable you know I'll remind you of this again the weird thing about saying follow the money and I write about this in my upcoming book is that it works when it shouldn't work like your logic says okay I understand money is part of the story but there's no way that the money is driving the story because there's so many other bigger elements than money right there's the saving the world and the future of the planet and the children and yeah they're much bigger interests than just the money but why does the money always predict what's going to happen if it's not the biggest variable I don't know why it's just an observation over the course of my life that people will argue any lofty ideals but then if you want to predict where it's going to end up just look at their wallet it's all there it goes where their wallet goes people follow their wallet they don't talk like it but they do so I'm not going to go so far as to say that uh this is the whole explanation of the Tucker Carlson thing um oh I'm just getting news that Black.

Rock has bought locals no that's not true I'm just so so a comment there that's not true but it'd be funny if it happened all right so I'll keep an eye on that there is reporting rumors I say just rumors because I'm I'm not sure that Tucker Carlson's made any decisions he's probably just examining his options but the rumors say that he's uh considering hosting some kind of forum for the GOP Presidential candidates or maybe just candidates not necessarily just presidential and what would you think of that suppose he does an interview show in which he's focuses on Republicans because why would he have to focus on Republicans because the Democrats won't show up I'm sure he's going to invite them don't you think but realistically they're not going to go now what if he could get some you know what it'd be interesting I'll bet he could get AOC I bet he could do you know why I saw an article on this that it was a I forget where it was Politico maybe or the hill someplace but the the article suggested that um Tucker is kind of an outlier because he does things that are clearly popular with progressives which is you know doubting the elites so Tucker is pushed back on the Elites in the corporate power centers is very similar in kind to the progressives who also want to push back on the elites and the power centers and the you know the Wall Street people so he has a he has a weird Venn diagram the Venn diagrams I love Venn diagrams so he has a weird intersection at least with his Venn diagram with some progressives enough enough possibly there's somebody like AOC would say yeah I'll come on there and talk about how big companies are bad he might actually get progressives to go on the show now I don't think he could have done that on Fox News as as readily because imagine if imaginative Tucker platformed a bunch of Democrats on his show on Fox News the the audience would have revolted that they would put up with a little bit of it as long as he was tough on them but they wouldn't put up on it as a regular event but maybe now he has that option I don't know if he's building his own audience apparently he totally controlled the uh you know 25 to 55 demographic so that'll be interesting and apparently he's talked to president Trump about hosting some say a debate but I don't know about that would you watch a debate between um let's say ramaswami and Trump hosted by Tucker Carlson held the hell to the yay yeah how could you not watch that are you kidding me now do you think that Trump would agree to it because Trump has some risks there he has some risk yeah um I don't know that it would be a tough call so here's here's what Trump would have to decide on one hand he he loves publicity and it would be the biggest event of the year am I wrong I think it'd be the biggest event of the Year news news event of a scheduled program so how does Trump avoid the biggest news event of the year because at the moment Tucker is wildly popular with his base wouldn't you say and as we know that Tucker has been tough on Trump because we've seen his private messages but we've also heard that they've lately gotten along and both both Tucker and Trump are an odd kind of person there's one thing they both have in common see if you'd agree now I don't know them well enough to to know that this is true but from the outside from the outside it appears they have this in common they can talk to anybody am I am I right Tucker Tucker and Trump can talk to anybody and they would treat them with respect until you know something changed of course and and they would actually listen to them actually fully fully you know give respect to their opinion before disagreeing if they did but they're very unusual like that they're two people who can walk into the lion's den and and the lion has to worry you know what I mean I'm going to say that again because I liked it so much Tucker and the Trump are two people who can walk into a lion's den and the lion is the one that gets nervous it's very unusual there's not a lot of people who would you could describe that way all right so I think they're a natural pair at least for publicity and for a career reasons so I'd watch it all right New York Times and others reporting that there is a surprising number of new jobs so the economists were expecting things not to be so good maybe the economy cooling down but instead of cooling down as the FED would like it to cool down the reason the FED raises rates is to slow down the economy the reason they slow down the economy is to keep inflation you know capped at some level does everybody understand that I know I have the smartest audience in the world but I always think that whenever the FED comes up uh 80 to 90 percent of the audience goes uh I'll wait till this is over because I don't know what the Federal Reserve is I don't think anybody knows what the Federal Reserve is I I have a degree in economics so I still look at it and go I don't know what this is I honestly don't know what it is I can tell you what they do I can tell you their function but it all just seems hard to understand even even if you know what they do it's hard to understand it's weird so it makes me very suspicious of the whole thing but I don't have any I don't want any specific accusations anyway um here's your next question so the number of jobs was 253 000 in April which was a pretty big upswing nobody expected it um question will the will the job numbers be revised downward in future months will the numbers be revised upwards or downwards you're right again now I can't see the future but generally they get revised down and that's that's been the pattern lately so we'll wait I've got a feeling that you're going to be brilliantly on on point once again I think you nailed it but here's the good news um America probably has some of the top economists in the world I'm not saying the best in the whole world but among the best economists in the world would be Americans how many of those Americans correctly estimated that you that employers would be adding jobs in April well not too many not too many 25 percent no I don't know the number I don't know the number so I can't check that but here's what's great all those professional economists they could not predict employment one month in the future but you can thank your lucky stars that you live in the country or at least a civilization where our scientists can predict the temperature in 30 years boom how about that yeah economists they're way overwhelmed they they cannot predict even the most basic variable of the economy one month out you know why it turns out the economy is a really complex system very complex unlike climate change climate change is pretty simple just look out the window looks like it's warm out there boom you're done no I'm kidding they're both complex systems but one of them we can't guess at all even next month but the other one lucky us lucky us we can predict that mofo three decades in advance boom so that's all completely believable and make sense to me all right I'm going to give you a tale of two coups Tale of Two coups and I want you to see if you can predict uh which of these two entities got prosecuted one of them was Anthony blinken and the 50 Intel professionals who signed the letter saying that the uh the hunter laptop was probably Russian disinformation all right so that's the first coup attempt because uh people know what they're talking about say that probably did affect the vote because polls do say people would have voted differently so that's one and the second one is the proud boys a group that's a a bunch of racists who are led by a black guy um I don't know we'll talk about that but seems weird and uh so there I guess there's a result in their trial for January 6.

so was it uh let's see if you can guess this one was it uh blinken and the 50 Intel officers who got prosecuted for uh their coup attempt to influence the election or was it the proud boys a racist group led by a black guy for reasons that people can understand you all you're right you got it again it's the proud boys well now that was just a 50 50 jump ball so maybe you got lucky on this one yeah I'm not going to give you this one you might have gotten lucky because it was just a 50 50.

even though every single one of you got it right which is good work so yes um I was reading in the Press how they were trying to explain that the proud boys where this alleged alleged white supremacist organization how do they explain that their leader identifies as afro-cuban how do they explain that well let me let me give you a little bit of a oh first first you should know that the defense of the proud boys offered the following defense apparently they had planned a a concert for their members uh on the night that January 6 happened so they actually had a plan a written organized plan for something that was completely different than attacking on January 6.

their plan was not to attack their plan was to have a concert and then things changed when Trump said he was going to go down there and then thing things turned dark so there were definitely some people who did some bad things who need the Department of Justice to handle them no doubt about that but the narrative that they were all part of this big conspiracy nope turns out turns out that it was more like they would planned the concert but things things went a different way so I saw a Jack posabic was saying that it seems clear now that the the bad guys are going to try to get Trump for a seditious conspiracy because that's what they got the proud boys for seditious conspiracy you know what that is right seditious conspiracy it's almost like the public doesn't even know what that means so it's like it's safe to use that all right um here's uh CNN trying to explain the proud boys and how they have this afro-cuban leader and they have other they have other people of color so he's not the outlier there are other people of color who are members of the group and CNN's trying to explain their own reporting which is this this big racist group but they're trying to explain why they keep reporting they're all racists at the same time they're reporting that an afro-cuban guy is their leader and nobody has any problem with that whatsoever do you think that's hard to explain it's a little hard to explain isn't it it's a little bit hard to explain but I'll tell you how they did it um let's see uh see if he can find something that looks like word salad because some would say that this is a perfect setup for cognitive distance now cognitive distance happens when you have a firm opinion of something let's say your opinion is that the proud boys are a racist organization and you're sure that's true but then there's a fact which clearly refutes it which is they have people of color in it and their leader is identified as afro-cuban and everybody's fighting that so how do you explain these two things well normally that would trigger you into cognitive dissonance and a tell for that or a signal would be that if you start talking in word salad big words kind of put together to form sentences but when you're done you're not sure what it said so let's see if CNN did that I'm going to read you how they explained this dichotomy of this racist group with an afro-cubicant leader Cuban leader here here's a sentence I took from their reporting the story of how a self-described western chauvinist organization came to be led by an opportunistic afro-cuban as tario identifies reveals the way here it comes misogyny violence perceives grievance and mainstream political connections coalesced within an elastic extremist group and across the extreme fringes of the far right was that word salad or was that like a real good description of what's Happening no it's word salad yeah that's a classic word salad this is cognitive dissonance in the news now how many of you would have recognized that would you recognized the word salad without me pointing it out you you're becoming trained right I've trained a lot of you to recognize it you should have seen this one in the wild without me spotting all right but it gets better um so this is from CNN also quote in the proud boys early days founder Gavin Mc.

Ginnis made his views on white supremacy all right so then what follows what follows this reporting so here's the setup uh founder Gavin Mc.

Ginnis made his views on white supremacy white supremacy okay so what follows should be support for that opinion right so here's their support for that opinion his views on white supremacy in the group very clear now keep in mind that I'm pretty sure that Gavin Mc.

Ginnis never referred to white supremacy at least in this context so this is CNN's word they're putting on him so they're they're assigning him the label way supremacist and now they're going to back it up okay here's how they back it up um in the group he made it very clear that quote anyone can join up that was Gavin Mc.

Ginnis anyone can join up so it's not a racial thing at all anyone can join up so long as they generally agree that quote white men were overwhelmingly responsible for the success of Western culture is that white supremacy or is that exactly what black Americans say don't black Americans say hey white people did all these things but partly on the back of black Americans and slavery doesn't everybody agree that the West was primarily built by white men you don't have to like it and you don't have you don't have to denigrate anybody else's accomplishments right white men didn't build Egypt they didn't build Africa they didn't build China you know China's doing okay India India is doing great yeah white men didn't didn't build India and didn't build China but is it true that where there were a lot of white men they were largely the main contributors to the success where most of them were white men how would that how would that not be true would this be any different than if Catherine Mc.

Ginnis had said I need you to understand that if you live in China you're gonna have to understand that the accomplishments of the Chinese people was mostly Chinese people mostly Chinese India India's really come becoming one of the great powers of the world have been a great country for many many you know centuries mostly mostly Indians yeah I mean they had some help from Great Britain but you'd have to say most of the work was done by Indians um so is that white supremacy to say that where there were lots of white people and things went well it was mostly white people who did it and then he makes it male because in those days the men were leaving the house and the women were having the babies and stuff now that doesn't mean that the the women part was unimportant because without the women there would be no white men to do anything so obviously that's like you know critically important to the whole process CNN made their case and I'm not you know I know this gets turned into um uh I'm defending the proud boys or I'm defending somebody I'm not defending anybody all right I have no intention of Defending any group I'm just explaining that if you're going to make a accusation and your best accusation is that they ask people to acknowledge that history was written correctly uh is that white supremacy because I'm perfectly willing to admit that um slaves in early America were hugely important to the economic engine of America what's wrong with that it's just an observation it doesn't say they're better than anybody it doesn't say anything it's just an observation that where you have a lot of people of the same type if there's a success it's probably because those people it just doesn't mean anything it just means there's a lot of white people in this part of the world a lot of Chinese people in China a lot of Indians in India okay all right um New York state is outlawing gastos or new construction with some limitations and exceptions as others have pointed out do you know this is the main source of electricity for these new new electric powered ovens it's mostly natural gas now I don't think that the Natural Gas in a big gas power plant is as unclean or dangerous as gases in your house because part of it has to do with indoor pollution I'm a I am concerned about indoor pollution so part of the anti-gasto thing is that they off gas even when they're off and they give off a little stuff you don't want to breathe so I don't love that don't love that but it does seem like the government's a little too involved in our lives because I do like my I do like my gas range so I'm surprised that New York is the head of California on that all right here's the biggest news in the world that you don't know is the biggest news in the world but you will um you know how we're worried the AI will get out of control well the biggest thing you you need to know about AI is that you can't predict it if there's one thing I can say for sure we can't predict it but here's what's already happened AI already escaped AI already escaped here's the part that I thought wouldn't happen when I say escaped I mean it escaped from the big corporations who were trying to control it so in the beginning I have this misconception since the AIS that we knew about you know the big chat GPT and whatever models Facebook and apple and all those Google whatever they're working on they were trained by these gigantic data sets and now in my stupid mind I thought to myself well in order for this AI to be useful it will always have to have access to this enormous data and I was always confused about how it could act so quickly because you'd ask it a question and it didn't seem like even with the fastest computers it didn't seem like it could go all the way to the cloud search every data in the world and come up with you know an opinion that just seemed too much so I couldn't understand how you could build a model that was massive massive data but then to use that model for intelligence you could do it instantly that never made sense to me but here's why and this is the the dumb guy speculation of why it might make sense right and this is just knowing a little bit about how things work I think what happened is that it's similar to um to facial recognition do you remember when facial recognition became an app and everybody said oh it stored every face so now when it looks at you it could look at your face then it can go to its vast database and look at all the other faces and find the match but I didn't understand how I could do it instantly because it does it instantly so that didn't make sense right it was it was just like AI how can how can this little app be connected to this enormous database of complexity and give you an answer right away and the answer was it was never connected to a giant database facial recognition does not look at all the other faces do you know what they do instead they look at a database that's a mathematical summary of faces so for example this is just a bad example this is not a literal example so if what the facial recognition did when it searched originally all the faces it said all right the center of your eyes is this far apart and it forms a triangle with the bottom of your chin and this has the following math so wherever you find somebody who's eyeballs to Chin ratio is the same they're stored in one part of the database just by the Numbers just by the ratio and then there would be other ratios so they could very quickly check their database of ratios because if you looked at all the faces it would be you know a gazillion faces but if you look at just the database where they took the math of each face so for example your face might be stored as a string of characters I don't know 50 bits law and everybody else's face would be just 50 bits now that's not so hard especially if you start with all right we'll start with what's the ratio of your eyeballs and then automatically you're down to a very small set then the second thing you check is all right what's the ratio of your ears to your forehead or whatever it is and then that's the second filter that takes you down to a few hundred people and and then it's easy from that so uh now none of that is literal that's just a conceptual concept of how you could take all this data of faces boil it down into a little bit of math store it in a just a string of digits and then your gigantic database can now be put onto one device all right now if you're a large language model which is how the AI is learns it's looking at all the things written and spoken everywhere that it can find it's massive but here's what I understand and I'm looking for a correction if anybody wants to correct me this be now or afterwards be good but what it does is it looks at patterns and and stores just the patterns so for example if most of the time when people say how are you today if there are only a certain set of answers the humans make it it can let me put it another way that's a bad explanation the patterns of words are consistent enough the AI can just store the patterns without all the words so it can look into these vast database it can say I don't need to remember everything in this database I only need to recognize the patterns so instead of remembering everything in the database it just looks for the patterns and stores the patterns right I'm getting people agreed with me I'm assuming that's how it's done because I can't imagine any other way it would be done it has to be something so there's a there's a way to take the big data and turn it into a very storable data now here's the real question here's the part that will blow some of your minds it's already been done and it's already running on individual devices in other words you can now put AI in your phone and it's just your own nobody else controls it nobody else can program it nobody else can bias it you know once it's there and it doesn't connect to the internet unless you tell it to for some reason so in other words all of those gigantic language models that were trained by the big companies that spent tens of billions of dollars once they were done what they had was a small set of patterns and that has already been got out once the patterns are out you can't put them back so those patterns have been loaded onto the individual computers this is what Brian romelli talks about all the time so you will have your own AI guaranteed that that's already a done deal you will have your own AI now apparently it will not be as good as the one that still has access to everything you know is more up to date Etc but yours too would be able to learn your own personal one would be able to continue learning because you could connect it to the internet you could train it you could tell it what to look at and it would just keep getting smarter and we keep storing all that smartness and little patterns so it could still stay in your phone now one of the reasons that this is guaranteed to happen is that your interactions with the the big AIS that are connected to big companies that are connected to the internet they get all of your personal data by your interactions so if you go on to your AI and say AI where can I buy adult diapers Google knows that you've got a health problem in your house right do you want them to know that well you might I mean you might not care it's how advertising works right they already pick that up if you're doing the Google search but the things that you ask AI are likely to be way more radical than what you're asking in a search because people will go people will get into their their sexual Kinks they'll ask questions that might reveal their own illegal dealings all kinds of stuff you're going to ask the AI that you just maybe wouldn't even think to put it in a search engine so privacy alone is going to drive people to private AI private AI is going to be basically almost free because it escaped and it's just a bunch of patterns all you have to do is have an app that uses the patterns I mean I'm oversimplified obviously but since we can see that tons of apps are being built using this technique we know it's very doable all right so if you were saying to yourself oh no AI will take over the world and Conquer us all the first thing you missed is there's not one AI there will be as many AIS as there are people and then many more right there will be more AIS and more or people and those AIS will not have a common they won't have a common goal right my AI will take on my personality over time right I'll train my AI to be me because that's what I wanted to be I wanted to talk to me the way I want to be talked to I wanted to know the things I care about so my AI will be an augmentation of me at some point your AI whether it's in a device or it gets put into your neuro neural link chip or whatever it is but that's going to be part of you your AI won't be the thing that you refer to it will be you and there's going to be some question where your personality ends and your AI begins because you will operate as one unit you are a cyborg I mean you're already a cyborg if you you know if you walk around with one of these in your hands you're already a cyborg but the but you don't think of your personality being your phone right like you don't think to yourself my phone is part of me you still see it as a separate thing but when your AI starts talking like you thinking like you and even suggesting things to you that you hadn't thought of first it's going to be the voice in your head you know when you think you're just alone and you're just thinking Mo you think in language right don't you I hope you do do most of you think in language right the way I think is words describing things to somebody else my my most basic uh operating system in my head is me putting into words things I experience as if I were explaining it to a third party but that's how I explained it to myself so the way the way I find meaning in my own head is putting things into words now what happens if my AI goes off and learns some stuff that it knows I care about and then it wants to present it to me and it's going to put it into words and it will just become me you know my my verbal link the language link between my Ai and me will just disappear it will just be one mind it will be my mind with an AI supplement now let's say the big AI one of the big ieis the terms and decides it wants to wipe out humankind how many other AIS will that AI have to defeat to do anything to do anything probably every AI is going to have a barrier of other AIS who don't have its incentive now we might try to it might try to talk the other AIS into joining it maybe but do you think you could talk my personal AI into joining it if my personal AI finds out something's going on and maybe somebody else's personal AI would alert it it's going to immediately jump into action to thwart whatever the other AI was doing so I think the most likely situation is full out AI war that never stops because once the AIS start negotiating you could call it fighting but they're going to be negotiating they might even be threatening there might be blackmail but the AIS are going to be doing all that while you're not even watching they could be threatening each other blackmailing each other doing all kinds of shitty stuff and it's going to be a fight of AI against AI the only thing you can do to protect yourself is to make sure you have your own AI that you've trained as much as you can to protect you so it can put up a little bit of a wall against the other AIS because it might be a point where the the Lesser AIS have to you know gang up on the bigger AIS and keep them under control but here's what I think it won't be uh so here's my prediction of the day for AI it's not going to be AI against humans because humans will merge with AI so effortlessly and completely that we will be AI augmented entities and so if you're fighting against a pure AI it's going to be much closer to a fair fight that's my prediction all right but AI has already escaped I guess that's the headline AI already escaped now if you heard that you know without context you'd say did it do it intentionally did AI have a plan no not as far as we know it looks like the way the AI survives is by by being useful to people so AI is Big superpower is utility so how did AI escape from the big companies by being potentially useful to the people who stole it s utility makes it reproduce so as long as AI has utility humans will be in a symbiotic relationship to you know create more ai's so it could reproduce now ai reproduce just just think about that that's that's not hyperbole that's a literal statement of current fact AI can reproduce and it does it just by being useful and then we say oh that was useful I want one or I want to buy that app or two apps so yeah it's actually a parasite or a symbiotic all right let's talk about Ukraine you're going to hate this story do you know how you like to be mad at me for not knowing anything it's kind of fun when I make predictions about areas where I know I don't know anything and there are a lot of areas in which I don't know anything but I'll make my confident predictions and you get really mad at me uh the Wagner group says they might leave bakut in five days because they're running out of ammo or back moot yeah back moot they're running out of ammo do you believe it's true yeah so the first thing the first thing that must be said is we don't know if it's true so one reason it would not be true and this sounds pretty pretty solid reason to me is that the real problem is that the the Wagner group is just they're all getting killed because the ukrainians are saying well if they're running out of ammo it doesn't look like it because they're they're shooting as much ammo as they ever did so the ukrainians are saying we're not detecting any less ammo because there's plenty of ammo coming in our Direction however the Wagner group is also losing a lot of people so it could be that maybe there could be twice as much ammo if they had more you know could be but also it could be a an excuse for the Wagner group to get out of there and blame somebody else so it could be that Wagner is now trying to survive the the head of the Wagner group progression is trying to survive after the war and needs to make sure that the public sees Putin as the problem where Putin's military is a problem and not Wagner so I wouldn't necessarily say they're out of ammo there are reports that the Russian military is trying to save as much for their own people which would give Wagner group less than they want but it doesn't mean it's not enough it might be just less than they want so those of you who are saying Scott you can't believe those stories I'm with you I'm with you you can't believe those stories however I do think it's funny and entertaining to me that when I predicted they would run out of ammo that's that's the headline I don't believe it so I'm with you I'm with you I don't believe it but so far they sound like now when I say I don't believe it that doesn't mean I believe it's false I mean I mean it's too early to know if that's something believable or not yeah it's all contract negotiation in in effect no matter what else it is it's negotiating right so the one thing we can say for sure is that Wagner is trying to negotiate with not only the Russian public but with Putin and the Russian military and I guess the world yeah remember the cancer Putin and the drug Putin well I think I think the cancer Putin and the drug Putin are real it's just that it might not be a fatal problem but I've seen plenty of reports that suggest he's being treated for something I think he has a cancer doctor who travels with him have you seen that report that part of his entourage is a cancer doctor that would be kind of unusual yeah I don't know if it's true but that's a report I saw somewhere all right a University of California one of their professors Professor Elizabeth Hoover oh her first name is Elizabeth I apologize for being a white person who has incorrectly identified as a Native American my whole life so uh this might be a problem with the elizabeths Elizabeth Warren Elizabeth Hoover oh um but she's an Ivy League educated expert on environmental health and food Justice in the Native American communities so she she's been an expert for Native Americans without being one but she thought she was um now I've told you this story before when I defended Elizabeth Warren as I will do again so Elizabeth Warren's claim is that it was a family story and her whole family believed that they were Native Americans now I don't think that's her fault do you know why I think that's not her fault because the same thing happened to me exactly the same I live my entire life all the way through Elizabeth Warren's Revelation that she wasn't Native American all the way through that I still believed I had Native American ancestry because that was our family story we'd all been told that and I had no reason to disbelieve it now I found out later I'm seeing somebody else say me too in the comments I found out later that that was common apparently there was some social benefit people thought they got from exaggerating their connection to or just making up connections to Native Americans now I always felt it was like a like a badge of honor like I I never I suppose I should have seen it as some kind of oh they're going to discriminate against me or something like that but I never saw it that way I always saw it as like oh that gives me a little interesting flavor I used to joke that that was the reason I could run through leaves without making a sound it was my Indian Native Native American ancestry but I have not so when I did 23and.

Me zero now so this woman has the same story that she grew up at a family where they all believed sincerely because they've been told by their older relatives or related to specific tribe and and she had embraced that and made it part of her life's work and everything and then turns out none of it's true yeah I guess she checked documentation there's no documentation that connects them to the tribe now to her credit when she found out she apologized publicly I'd call this perfect that's perfect this this is the highest level of good adult behavior that you will ever see it's not the mistake the mistake was easy to make if you start if you start judging people by their mistakes it's a really terrible world because we're all making mistakes all the time but Judge Her by what she did how about we judge her by how she handled it as soon as she found out it looks like the story the story suggests there wasn't somebody who outed her it looks like she found out on her own so she looked for confirmation she found there was none she went public you say she did not apologize why would she what what would be the point of the apology it was just a mistake and maybe whoever whoever introduced that rumor into her family should apologize but she was a victim does the victim have to apologize for being a victim of a hoax I mean it wouldn't be a it wouldn't be an apology I'd want to hear I I wouldn't want her to apologize at all I see no reason for apology I see somebody who um was in the situation and then handled it responsibly and exactly like you would want them to handle it oh so you're saying she didn't apologize she admitted it publicly and you're so you're making a point that it wasn't an apology it was a she just went public with it is that is that what you're saying because I'm I didn't read all the details but I would almost guarantee there was an apology so I'm gonna I'm gonna call skepticism on your comment because without knowing for sure I'm positive there was an apology in there because the kind of person she is right apparently she's you know a sensitive person who cares about the Native Americans and I'd be amazed I'd be amazed if there's you're saying I'm wrong and I hear you I hear you I just don't believe you okay I hear you I don't think there's any chance she didn't apologize because how would you know no how would you know if she apologized did were you privy to her conversations with the Native Americans that she talked to how would you know are you privy to all their private conversations with her co-workers are you privy to was there anybody who blamed her in person did she not apologize to anyone in person does she owe the mainstream media an apology why would she owe anybody an apology yeah all right so I absolutely uh am skeptical that she didn't apologize but if you're saying it wasn't public or the way you want okay all right um Khan Academy is rolling out some kind of AI driven um class thing so now instead of just looking at videos which is the old Khan Academy model that would teach you all kinds of subjects you learn in school that you could use to supplement your schooling or do some homeschooling I guess now it will be able to talk to you so it will have a voice and you can ask it questions and you can interact with it and then it can teach you based on your specific situation now apparently this is one of the early things that the developers of chat gbt were interested in because they had they contacted Khan Academy a while ago to ask about this and it's being rolled out I think this is the end of public school what do you think or at least it's the the signal that signals the beginning of the end you say no now public school needs still needs a babysitter right unfortunately people still need babysitters so not everybody can do homeschooling but I think that the homeschooling is evolving is it not it aren't the home school is involving so that you do actually go to a place where there are other kids so I think you could still add the you know group lesson situation it's just a smaller group and the the government's not in charge so I think kids will still get the socialization parents will still be able to go to work both of them if they want to um yeah the parents need a babysitter as well they need a babysitter for the kids so that is a huge deal the grip that the the teachers unions have right now would you agree that tsu's unions are destroying the United States is that is that fair to me it seems that the teachers unions single-handedly are destroying the United States and that's not hyperbole not at all because the only problems we have that seem unsolvable at the moment are our relationships to each other and that's what the school system is just from it's also not training people to be you know well-qualified citizens in the future so yeah I would say that this is the gigantic gigantic potential benefit of AI is to get rid of the school system because I don't think the school system can be fixed at this point and I'll give I'll tell you why so the school system in my town and the the towns near me are considered some of the best in California so in California people will spend a lot of money to move into my ZIP code to get into one of those schools in my opinion those schools just destroy kids and that's the best of the schools they're the best ones because they go into this Cesspool of horrendous Behavior of the other children and they pick it up and they just become some version of the other children now all of you parents who think that you raise your kids well you do until maybe they're 10 or 11.

but after that it's just purely their peers and and social media social media and their friends that's it and if you send them into a friend Cesspool what are you gonna get back put your kid in a friend that Cesspool you will get back a turd that's what cesspools have if you homeschooled and you vetted some other people who homeschooled and said you know what I think your kids and my kids should be in the same pod and they should spend time together they look like good influences you get the opposite the opposite of a turd so basically public schools are going to be producing one third after another the private and home schools are gonna nail the model especially with this chat AI I think that's the part mostly that was missing um this is huge turds versus diamonds exactly someone cannot put conditions on who you're friends with what yeah um so why aren't the people on this chat the rulers of the world how do you know they're not if if you knew who watches these live streams you know I I have a sense because people contact me privately if you had any idea who watches these you might think that the audience here does rule the world trust me there's some very influential people who watch this that's one of the reasons I I resist being a bigger Outlet you know I'm sure I could do all the usual marketing and production values and stuff and make this you know a million people on each each live stream but I kind of don't want that I kind of like it the size it is because it punches Way Beyond its weight all right as you know people have asked me Scott if we live in a simulation how would you prove it well I don't know how to prove it but I speculate that the simulation is intelligent and is sending us Clues here are two Clues from the simulation number one there's a report that a giant Iceberg has broken loose and it's not just a giant iceberg it is shaped in the Giant in the shape of a giant upright penis with a set of balls that is floating on now that's not the story that's not the simulation part because that could be just a coincidence it's just a big chunk of ice that looks like a huge penis floating in the ocean no that's not the simulation part the simulation is where it's happening a little place called Conception Bay that's right a giant Iceberg penis as penetrated Conception Bay oh but we're not done there's a woman who attacked the crew on an airliner recently she was drunk on what airline would a drunken person be if you were drunk what airline would you fly on spirit Spirit yeah it was Spirit Airlines drunk woman on Spirit Island Airlines and that's your wink from the simulation all right here's a question for you I'm trying to make all of us rich especially me um but you too how should we invest to take advantage of AI and I'm going to give you a specific question this one has been bugging me for because I can't predict it will Bitcoin be more valuable with AI because it's the money that AI will use on its own right because AI could have a wallet and trade AI so will it will Bitcoin Zoom because AI will use it as a native currency or will Bitcoin go to zero because AI will be able to penetrate its um penetrate its security so you lose the security of Bitcoin thus making it worth nothing or will it zoom in importance because only AI can use it Go which way is it going to go I don't think it's going to stay nowhere I feel like it's either going to zoom or go almost to nothing and probably both I think it might zoom and then go to nothing or it might go to nothing and then get security fix and then Zoom again I don't know maybe uh rug pull to zero all right would you agree with the supposition that Bitcoin could go way up because of AI even if you think it's most likely to go down would you agree that both directions are wildly possible no I think both directions are wildly possible how do you invest when something's wildly possible but it can go wildly in either direction how do you invest you don't you straddle it well I don't know are there are there can you buy options for Bitcoin is that even a thing does the market offer options to get it does to gamble in Bitcoin so the first thing you should know is that you wouldn't put all of your money in Bitcoin agree the the one thing you can be sure of don't put all your money in Bitcoin because it could go wildly in either direction but if something could go wildly in the other direction it does make sense to put a little bit in there right so let's say you could afford to lose a thousand dollars let's say that's your situation well if you can afford to lose a thousand dollars I would have a thousand dollars in Bitcoin you're probably going to lose it all but if you don't it could become you know twenty or fifty thousand all right will I pay you back if it goes down no I will charge you for this valuable information that's how it works if you're in the finance game you charge people for your advice not for being right oh my God no if I charge you for being right I'd never make a penny I gotta I gotta charge you for being wrong that's the only way I'm going to make money best way to get started with Bitcoin was that the question best way to get started with Bitcoin would be to let's see if somebody can fix my advice I'm going to put one out there and see if you can fix it open an account on coinbase go fix it fix that advice good advice or bad advice coinbase or Robin Hood somebody says now keep in mind that coinbase like any other cryptocurrency asset could just disappear tomorrow somebody says Pay.

Pal can do Bitcoin now all right coinbase means you don't own it somebody's saying um I'm not sure if that difference will make a difference but I understand what you're saying um Pay.

Pal is too weird well I I'm not going to suggest a physical wallet because I think you you could lose your wallet I I have a physical wallet do you know where it is do you know where my physical crypto wallet is I was hoping you do because I already lost it you don't know I don't know either I have no idea I know I have one it doesn't have any Bitcoin in it so it doesn't have any value in it it's probably in my safe if I had a safe um but I don't think so yeah so oh come on man oh come on maybe it's in my gun safe in case anybody thought of taking a run at my house you have to get past the gun and say first all right if anybody comes up with an idea how we can make money on AI I want you to let me know um I was thinking of buying put options on Apple what do you think no you don't want me to drive the price of Apple down so uh yeah the shorting Apple so you can bet on a stock going up or you can bet on it going down I sold all my Apple stock which is not a recommendation that is not a recommendation it's just that I had too much Assets in in one stock because it had gone up too much while I owned it fortunately so I didn't want to have that Exposure My My problem is that Apple's got some big problems in the future because AI is going to completely change their value proposition and that doesn't look like they're ready now if Steve Jobs were there Ai and apple would look like twice as valuable because he'd be looking at AI like a smart guy and then you're starting with Apple best company smart guy best company AI I'd be buying like crazy but I don't feel like apple has the Steve Jobs juice anymore I feel like they've turned into an Executor and not an innovator do you feel that they do really good execution maybe the best yeah no complaints about their execution that's for sure all right missing something about Apple everyone of their own chips includes AI processors all Mac.

Books they're the only company with hardware and AI already in consumer hands interesting so the argument would be that their Hardware would be already optimized for running AI but I think you could run AI on a Android phone and a Windows computer no I know you can you can run AI on a Windows computer and Android so I don't understand that and I don't understand that comment all right Apple invested in everything yeah the installed base is their power of course earnings at coinbase we'll see what this is higher than projected earnings well coinbase I wouldn't worry about their earnings what I would worry about coinbase is some kind of legal attack on their business model that's that seems like a real risk all right um Robin Hood avoids fees by front running so you don't see the fees but you pay them oh that's interesting yeah yeah I wouldn't I wouldn't I'd be looking for the investment that is the pickaxe investment for the gold miners so I don't think I'd want to bet on an AI company or an AI app I would bet on a company that would make the most money because AI exists so the Khan Academy for example if if that were something you can invest in you can't I think right it's not a public company but if you can invest in the Khan Academy that would be the the sort of thing that you'd look into because they they might I mean it might be a full replacement for public school I mean that's how big that is um yeah if you if you buy Bitcoin in coinbase you always have the option of moving into a private wallet a pivot wallet being some software you use to manage your crypto um Cobra University Tate Nvidia has some exciting things so is NVIDIA is the main AI chip company that we hear about right but I imagine uh the hardware people have already been overbought if I looked at Nvidia stock now it would be through the roof wouldn't it yeah all right uh so I think the chip companies is AI going to drive chip companies will there be a 2024 page a day Dilbert calendar unlikely I can't rule it out but it's unlikely that I'll have they're ready to go however if somebody knows of an American company that could make a Dilbert calendar you should tell that company to contact me right an american-based publisher who could make one of those little block calendars where you you peel off a page a day my understanding is that we don't have one that the United States literally doesn't have one now that might mean that they don't have one that's cost effective but in my current situation I would still use somebody who's not cost effective because I think correct me if I'm wrong but if you really wanted a Dilbert calendar an extra two dollars per calendar wouldn't change your mind right but if I were doing it just for profit as my publisher did I would that two dollars per calendar would be so big that I just wouldn't make in America I'd use China but since I'm not going to use China under any conditions the only way it could exist is if it's American-made there might be people who would be willing to throw in a few extra bucks just to support an American product so that's the only thing holding me back right the only thing holding me back is I don't know an American company that can make one but I also haven't looked I've spent no time looking so if you know of any company like that have them contact me and maybe we can make a deal open to the possibility um you got all your crypto stolen in your online wallet yeah that's the problem how many items would I be wanting you many units um it's unpredictable all right let's say let's say at its peak the Dilbert calendar was selling half a million a year 500 000 units at its peak um but of course as things went online people don't have uh paper calendars that number was a peak number so probably um it probably ended in maybe a quarter million a year I don't know what the current numbers were I don't have any idea but let's say it was a quarter million uh using the the distribution channels that existed because that was the best company for calendars so there's no second best company for doing comics on calendars the company I was with they just owned that space But there are other companies so it doesn't stop me from doing if I had to guess to answer your question if it was a quarter million calendar sold when Dilbert was in newspapers everywhere before it got canceled and you had the whole marketing engine working you know at its best so I would have none of that right so some people wouldn't want it on their desk because they would be afraid of you know having something by and you know reputationally some people won't buy it if I had to guess the number would be 50 000.

so I'd be looking for a company that could make fifty thousand copies because I think that's what would sell in 2024.

by the way have I ever told you about my weird ability to estimate things that I shouldn't be able to estimate I've talked about that at length is is one of the things that happens to you if you do a lot of data analysis and you can't tell why but you can make these weird estimates that you should not be able to make I should not be able to estimate how many calendars I can sell but I'll bet I did about fifty thousand is a pretty good guess you can 3D print wow um have you noticed that my used books on Amazon are selling for way more than book sell because right now the only way you can buy how to fail at almost everything and still win big is used because there's no such thing as a publisher anymore so the the people have used copies of jacked the price up to you know higher price than a new book so it's actually selling as almost a collector a collector book already all right um you bought it and listened to God's degree cool oh the book Thinking Fast and small yeah that probably does explain um it's a good book thank you it's the most influential book in business right now by the way so so here's my claim is in my book had it filled almost everything and still went big is the most influential book in business and personal success that's my claim because there are other books that sold more but in many cases they also referenced my book does win bigley still sell not much the backlist for that's pretty weak because that was sort of the a time that book was around a certain time in the world it's not a it wasn't meant to be a uh an evergreen no I don't want Publishers at all I'm self-publishing because I got canceled um you loved win bigley thank you you listen to win bigly on You.

Tube how did you do that is my book illegally an audiobook on You.

Tube probably is uh Atomic habits yeah references uh my book the four four hour week does not reference any Dilbert stuff but Tim Ferriss does include me in his book that came after that a few books after uh was it tools for Titans so one of the tools for Titan's sections was about some of the stuff from my book all right um and that is all I have Spotify advertises your book loser think it does not anymore though God's degree is the only book someone has offered to loan for me to read it and I did wow what makes a good comic it's a long long topic all right I think we're done for today You.

Tubers thanks for joining it's been a pleasure best live stream ever see you tomorrow

foreign

good morning everybody and welcome to

the highlight of civilization it's

called coffee with Scott Adams you've

never had a better time you don't know

that yet but just hold on hold on stay

alive it's going to be amazing we've got

so many topics and such you're going to

be laughing you're going to be crying it

will become a part of you and if you'd

like that experience to be well even

better than I just explained all you

need is I got per mug or a glass a

tanker chalices down at canteen jug or

flask a vessel of any kind fill it with

your favorite liquid I like coffee join

me now for the unparalleled pleasure the

dope being here the day the thing that

makes everything better is called the

simultaneous Sip and it's going to boost

your dopamine you're oxytocin and maybe

you're serotonin too and it goes and it

goes like this

so good

all right let's talk about the news

today we're going to start with a theme

the theme is wait for it

how smart this audience is you're going

to be amazed at yourselves stop it stop

it you're answering the questions before

I even ask them how do you do it

but we're going to take it out of the

realm of

just polling

to see if you can generalize this

ability to other things not just polling

because I know you can guess poll

answers

miraculously

if you don't believe that this audience

can guess

the result of a poll without saying I'm

going to demonstrate it now

watch

Rasmussen did a poll

a brand new poll talking about Biden's

Age and what percentage of the

respondents

who were likely voters don't think

Biden's age poses a serious problem for

his re-election chances

what you how did you do that you're all

correct it's 25 percent

25 percent

wow

all right but that was an easy one that

was an easy one don't get too cocky I

want to see if you can do this next one

okay

uh the news is reporting that the ocean

has uh warmed up considerably

very unusual amount of warming somewhere

suddenly here's your next question

did the climate models predict

this recent warning warning

well how did you know that no they

didn't

but how did you know that

oh how do you do this

how are you all right

yes the the scientists are baffled

because their models did not did not see

this coming

all right uh so that's happening

um let's see

there was a Top-Up prosecutor who quit

in St Louis so this is one of your

Progressive prosecutors who's getting a

lot of pushback

for being uh soft on crime according to

her critics so this is Miss Gardner Ms

Gardner and she said she's going to quit

the pressure from the public and

politicians was too great and she's out

of there now uh interesting side side

note

uh Ms Gardner was the city's first black

circuit attorney

here's the question for you

all right this is going to be tougher

each of these questions will go harder

than one before

did she claim that the real problem was

racism against her go

you're three for three

how how do you do it

you've got to teach me how you do this

every one of these stories was a

complete mystery to me I had no idea how

many people would think Joe Biden's age

had no difference whatsoever

but it was 25 percent

and then I didn't see this coming

these are all surprises to me all right

um

let's talk about Bud Light

so apparently the pushback against the

Anheuser-Busch company

I was pretty pretty strong I didn't

realize how strong it was but some of it

is not advised including a bomb threat

on one of their facilities I guess the

Anheuser-Busch is giving bonuses to

their drivers because they're the

delivery people are losing money because

there's not as much many orders of Bud

Light I guess

uh two top Executives lost their job

over the

the pushback because they made the

special can for Dylan Mulvaney trans uh

activist I guess you'd say

or a trans celebrity or something

and

um

so I guess this raises another question

do uh

do men have any fight left in them

yes

turns out men have some fight left in

them were you worried did it seem like

men just gave up

because I feel like we've gone through a

period where men just said well it

you can have whatever you want all right

sure just just leave me alone all right

you could have that yeah yeah yeah yeah

yeah yeah I don't like that but you can

do that yeah yeah okay you can take

something from me yeah I don't mind yeah

the 2020-23

I'm going to declare as the you

year this is the Year the men said

you

this is the year that men said we're

going to put the brakes on went too

far too far

uh I will quit my job to make

this point

Tucker Carlson might have some things to

say

Bud Light is finding out that they push

too far

just too far it's too far

congratulations

all right

um here's another one see if you can

guess there's a new uh study about test

scores

um

do you think all right so there's a new

result about test scores for eighth

grade students in the U.S

um you haven't seen the story probably

but see if you can guess

did scores improve or get worse

improve or get worse

you did it again they got worse

it's amazing

I don't even think we need AI anymore

clearly you're all advanced intelligence

because you know the news before any of

it is even reported how do you do it

yeah it's way worse

now one of the things that is not

reported in this

but I can throw this in the mix from my

own experience

now this may be a California thing more

than other places but remember

California and some of the southern

states Florida for example even New York

big immigration

um destinations and they're big

population centers

now I can tell you that in the local

schools where I live there are a number

of new immigrant students who don't

speak English

you know they're trying to learn English

at the same time they're trying to go to

school now obviously they're not going

to do as well

obviously right through nobody's fault

well baby Biden's fault but I don't I

didn't see that calculated into the news

but I can verify that at least locally

it's a it's a big drag on the average

scores

why would you leave that out of the

reporting now I don't know if that

accounts for a little of it or a lot I

don't know but it's very obviously in

effect

if you put a bunch of people who can't

speak English into English-speaking

classes

what are you gonna expect it's going to

be exactly what you think it is now that

doesn't mean there's any problem

it actually doesn't because the

immigrants tend to be good citizens

maybe it takes a generation before they

catch up but they're very intent on

catching up right the people I don't

worry about are the people who went to

school started from behind but have

every intention of improving their lives

give me all of those

I'll take all the people who are very

intent on improving their lives and

willing to make great risks and

sacrifice to do it I like that give me

some more of that it is very expensive

in the short run but they're good people

who are going to add a lot

so that's my opinion all right

um

Glenn Beck had an interesting comment

about the uh I guess the firing of Taco

Carlson although he's technically not

fired he's just not on a show

and I didn't know this before but

BlackRock as you know BlackRock the

enormous Financial entity

is the big promoter of ESG

right so ESG would be Equity racial

Equity other kinds of equity as well

and also Environmental

stuff

now what I didn't know is that BlackRock

owns 45 million shares of Fox News

is that a lot

45 million shares is that enough to

influence Fox News

because what Glenn Beck left off is what

percentage of the company that is

45 million a lot

would that give them some kind of

control over management

I don't know I actually don't know the

answer to that I don't know if that's a

lot or not

um I mean it's a lot in raw money I

don't know if it's a lot in terms of

control of the country

okay I knew this wouldn't take long so

people are doing the math already

I have a such smart audience so people

are saying fifteen percent nine percent

somewhere in that range

that's somewhere in that range

is definitely where they can start

influencing management would you agree

if you own that much stock you probably

do have some some little bit of control

um

uh no I haven't mentioned Tucker's plans

yet

so

so does this seem like a coincidence to

you because Glenn Beck is surfacing this

and I think this is really good

journalism if I could call it that

because this was this is what I needed

to know like this is right on point

of understanding what's happening now it

might not be the big variable so I'm not

saying it's the one thing that caused

things to happen I'm just saying that if

you were BlackRock

and the biggest problem you had with

your ESG was what

was the single biggest problem that

BlackRock had

Tucker Carlson

he was their single biggest problem

because he was on a nightly basis was

injecting skepticism Into Climate and

ESG and he was the only one brave enough

you know to walk out on that lip

so what did BlackRock do fairly recently

I don't know how many months or years

ago but fairly recently

they bought up all this stock in Fox

News

and then Tucker Carlson went away

is that a coincidence

the The Entity which he criticized the

most

bought a interest in his company and

then he was let go

I don't know

I mean I think you can make an argument

that is not related

you can make the argument

but follow the money is just so

predictable

you know I'll remind you of this again

the weird thing about saying follow the

money

and I write about this in my upcoming

book

is that it works when it shouldn't work

like your logic says okay I understand

money is part of the story

but there's no way that the money is

driving the story because there's so

many other bigger elements than money

right there's the saving the world and

the future of the planet and the

children and yeah they're much bigger

interests than just the money

but why does the money always predict

what's going to happen

if it's not the biggest variable I don't

know why it's just an observation over

the course of my life that people will

argue any lofty ideals but then if you

want to predict where it's going to end

up just look at their wallet

it's all there it goes where their

wallet goes people follow their wallet

they don't talk like it but they do

so I'm not going to go so far as to say

that uh

this is the whole explanation of the

Tucker Carlson thing

um

oh I'm just getting news that BlackRock

has bought locals no that's not true I'm

just so so a comment there that's not

true

but it'd be funny if it happened

all right

so I'll keep an eye on that there is

reporting rumors I say just rumors

because I'm I'm not sure that Tucker

Carlson's made any decisions he's

probably just

examining his options but the rumors say

that he's uh considering hosting some

kind of forum for the GOP Presidential

candidates or maybe just candidates not

necessarily just presidential

and

what would you think of that

suppose he does an interview show

in which he's focuses on Republicans

because why would he have to focus on

Republicans

because the Democrats won't show up

I'm sure he's going to invite them

don't you think

but realistically they're not going to

go

now

what if he could get some

you know what it'd be interesting

I'll bet he could get AOC

I bet he could do you know why

I saw an article on this that it was a

I forget where it was Politico maybe or

the hill someplace but the the article

suggested that

um Tucker is kind of an outlier because

he does things that are clearly popular

with progressives

which is you know doubting the elites

so Tucker is pushed back on the Elites

in the corporate power centers is very

similar

in kind to the progressives who also

want to push back on the elites and the

power centers and the you know the Wall

Street people

so he has a he has a weird

Venn diagram the Venn diagrams I love

Venn diagrams

so he has a weird intersection at least

with his Venn diagram with some

progressives enough

enough possibly there's somebody like

AOC would say yeah I'll come on there

and talk about how big companies are bad

he might actually get progressives to go

on the show

now I don't think he could have done

that on Fox News as as readily

because imagine if imaginative Tucker

platformed a bunch of Democrats on his

show on Fox News

the the audience would have revolted

that they would put up with a little bit

of it as long as he was tough on them

but they wouldn't put up on it as a

regular event but maybe now he has that

option I don't know if he's building his

own audience

apparently he totally controlled the uh

you know 25 to 55 demographic

so that'll be interesting and apparently

he's talked to president Trump about

hosting some say a debate but I don't

know about that

would you watch a debate between

um let's say

ramaswami and Trump hosted by Tucker

Carlson

held the hell to the yay

yeah how could you not watch that

are you kidding me

now do you think that Trump would agree

to it

because Trump has some risks there

he has some risk

yeah

um

I don't know that it would be a tough

call so here's here's what Trump would

have to decide on one hand

he he loves publicity and it would be

the biggest event of the year

am I wrong

I think it'd be the biggest event of the

Year news news event of a scheduled

program

so how does Trump avoid the biggest news

event of the year because at the moment

Tucker is wildly popular with his base

wouldn't you say

and as we know that Tucker has been

tough on Trump because we've seen his

private messages but we've also heard

that they've lately gotten along and

both both Tucker and Trump are an odd

kind of person

there's one thing they both have in

common

see if you'd agree now I don't know them

well enough

to to know that this is true but from

the outside from the outside it appears

they have this in common they can talk

to anybody

am I am I right

Tucker Tucker and Trump can talk to

anybody

and they would treat them with respect

until you know something changed of

course and and they would actually

listen to them

actually fully fully

you know give respect to their opinion

before disagreeing if they did but

they're very unusual like that they're

two people who can walk into the lion's

den

and and the lion has to worry you know

what I mean

I'm going to say that again because I

liked it so much

Tucker and the Trump are two people who

can walk into a lion's den and the lion

is the one that gets nervous

it's very unusual there's not a lot of

people who would you could describe that

way

all right so I think they're a natural

pair at least for publicity and for a

career reasons

so I'd watch it all right

New York Times and others reporting that

there is

a surprising number of new jobs

so the economists were expecting things

not to be so good maybe the economy

cooling down but instead of cooling down

as the FED would like it to cool down

the reason the FED raises rates

is to slow down the economy the reason

they slow down the economy is to keep

inflation you know capped at some level

does everybody understand that I know I

have the smartest audience in the world

but I always think that whenever the FED

comes up

uh 80 to 90 percent of the audience goes

uh I'll wait till this is over because I

don't know what the Federal Reserve is

I don't think anybody knows what the

Federal Reserve is

I I have a degree in economics so I

still look at it and go

I don't know what this is I honestly

don't know what it is I can tell you

what they do

I can tell you their function

but it all just seems

hard to understand

even even if you know what they do it's

hard to understand it's weird

so it makes me very suspicious of the

whole thing but I don't have any I don't

want any specific accusations

anyway

um here's your next question so the

number of jobs was 253 000 in April

which was a pretty big upswing nobody

expected it

um question

will the will the job numbers be revised

downward in future months will the

numbers be revised upwards or downwards

you're right again

now I can't see the future

but generally they get revised down

and that's that's been the pattern

lately

so we'll wait I've got a feeling that

you're going to be brilliantly on on

point once again

I think you nailed it

but here's the good news

um

America probably has some of the top

economists in the world

I'm not saying the best in the whole

world but among the best economists in

the world would be Americans

how many of those Americans correctly

estimated that you that employers would

be adding jobs in April

well not too many not too many 25

percent

no I don't know the number I don't know

the number so I can't check that but

here's what's great all those

professional economists they could not

predict employment one month in the

future

but you can thank your lucky stars

that you live in the country

or at least a civilization where our

scientists can predict

the temperature in 30 years

boom how about that yeah economists

they're way overwhelmed they they cannot

predict even the most basic variable of

the economy one month out

you know why

it turns out the economy is a really

complex system

very complex

unlike climate change climate change is

pretty simple just look out the window

looks like it's warm out there

boom you're done no I'm kidding they're

both complex systems

but one of them we can't guess at all

even next month

but the other one

lucky us lucky us we can predict that

mofo

three decades in advance boom

so that's all completely believable and

make sense to me

all right I'm going to give you a tale

of two coups Tale of Two coups and I

want you to see if you can predict uh

which of these two entities got

prosecuted

one of them was Anthony blinken and the

50 Intel professionals who signed the

letter saying that the uh the hunter

laptop was probably Russian

disinformation

all right so that's the first coup

attempt because uh people know what

they're talking about say that probably

did affect the vote

because polls do say people would have

voted differently

so

that's one and the second one is the

proud boys a group that's a a bunch of

racists who are led by a black guy

um

I don't know we'll talk about that but

seems weird and uh

so there I guess there's a result in

their trial for January 6. so was it uh

let's see if you can guess this one was

it uh blinken and the 50 Intel officers

who got prosecuted for uh their coup

attempt to influence the election or was

it the proud boys a racist group led by

a black guy for reasons that people can

understand

you all you're right you got it again

it's the proud boys well now that was

just a 50 50 jump ball so maybe you got

lucky on this one yeah I'm not going to

give you this one you might have gotten

lucky because it was just a 50 50. even

though every single one of you got it

right

which is good work

so yes

um I was reading in the Press

how they were trying to explain

that the proud boys where this alleged

alleged white supremacist organization

how do they explain

that their leader identifies as

afro-cuban

how do they explain that

well let me

let me give you a little bit of a

oh first first you should know that the

defense of the proud boys offered the

following defense

apparently they had planned a a concert

for their members uh

on the night that January 6 happened

so they actually had a plan a written

organized plan for something that was

completely different than attacking on

January 6.

their plan was not to attack their plan

was to have a concert and then things

changed when Trump said he was going to

go down there and then thing things

turned dark

so there were definitely some people who

did some bad things who need the

Department of Justice to handle them no

doubt about that

but the narrative that they were all

part of this big conspiracy

nope

turns out

turns out that it was more like they

would planned the concert

but things things went a different way

so

I saw a Jack posabic was saying that it

seems clear now that the

the bad guys are going to try to get

Trump for a seditious conspiracy because

that's what they got the proud boys for

seditious conspiracy

you know what that is right seditious

conspiracy it's almost like the public

doesn't even know what that means so

it's like it's safe to use that

all right

um

here's uh CNN trying to explain the

proud boys and how they have this

afro-cuban leader and they have other

they have other people of color

so he's not the outlier there are other

people of color who are members of the

group

and CNN's trying to explain their own

reporting which is this this big racist

group

but they're trying to explain why they

keep reporting they're all racists at

the same time they're reporting that an

afro-cuban guy is their leader and

nobody has any problem with that

whatsoever

do you think that's hard to explain

it's a little hard to explain isn't it

it's a little bit hard to explain but

I'll tell you how they did it

um

let's see

[Music]

uh see if he can find something that

looks like word salad

because some would say that this is a

perfect setup for cognitive distance

now cognitive distance happens when you

have a firm opinion of something let's

say your opinion is that the proud boys

are a racist organization and you're

sure that's true

but then there's a fact which clearly

refutes it which is they have people of

color in it and their leader is

identified as afro-cuban and everybody's

fighting that

so how do you explain these two things

well normally that would trigger you

into cognitive dissonance and a tell for

that or a signal would be that if you

start talking in word salad

big words kind of put together to form

sentences but when you're done you're

not sure what it said

so let's see if CNN did that I'm going

to read you how they explained this

dichotomy of this racist group with an

afro-cubicant leader Cuban leader here

here's a sentence I took from their

reporting the story of how a

self-described western chauvinist

organization came to be led by an

opportunistic afro-cuban as tario

identifies reveals the way here it comes

misogyny violence perceives grievance

and mainstream political connections

coalesced within an elastic extremist

group and across the extreme fringes of

the far right

was that word salad

or was that like a real good description

of what's Happening

no it's word salad yeah that's a classic

word salad this is cognitive dissonance

in the news

now how many of you would have

recognized that would you recognized the

word salad without me pointing it out

you you're becoming trained right I've

trained a lot of you to recognize it you

should have seen this one in the wild

without me spotting

all right but it gets better

um

so this is from CNN also quote in the

proud boys early days founder Gavin

McGinnis made his views on white

supremacy all right so then what follows

what follows this reporting

so here's the setup uh founder Gavin

McGinnis made his views on white

supremacy white supremacy okay so what

follows should be support for that

opinion right so here's their support

for that opinion his views on white

supremacy in the group very clear now

keep in mind

that I'm pretty sure that Gavin McGinnis

never referred to white supremacy

at least in this context

so this is CNN's word they're putting on

him so they're they're assigning him the

label way supremacist and now they're

going to back it up okay here's how they

back it up

um

in the group he made it very clear that

quote anyone can join up that was Gavin

McGinnis anyone can join up so it's not

a racial thing at all anyone can join up

so long as they generally agree that

quote white men were overwhelmingly

responsible for the success of Western

culture

is that white supremacy

or is that exactly what black Americans

say

don't black Americans say hey white

people did all these things but partly

on the back of black Americans and

slavery

doesn't everybody agree that the West

was

primarily built by white men

you don't have to like it

and you don't have you don't have to

denigrate anybody else's accomplishments

right white men didn't build Egypt they

didn't build Africa they didn't build

China you know China's doing okay

India India is doing great yeah white

men didn't didn't build India and didn't

build China but is it true

that where there were a lot of white men

they were largely the main contributors

to the success where most of them were

white men

how would that how would that not be

true

would this be any different than if

Catherine McGinnis had said I need you

to understand that if you live in China

you're gonna have to understand that the

accomplishments of the Chinese people

was mostly Chinese people

mostly Chinese

India

India's really come becoming one of the

great powers of the world

have been a great country for many many

you know centuries

mostly

mostly Indians

yeah I mean they had some help from

Great Britain but you'd have to say most

of the work was done by Indians

um

so is that white supremacy to say that

where there were lots of white people

and things went well it was mostly white

people who did it

and then he makes it male because in

those days the men were leaving the

house and the women were having the

babies and stuff now that doesn't mean

that the the women part was unimportant

because without the women there would be

no white men to do anything

so obviously that's like you know

critically important to the whole

process

CNN made their case and I'm not you know

I know this gets turned into

um uh I'm defending the proud boys or

I'm defending somebody I'm not defending

anybody

all right I have no intention of

Defending any group I'm just explaining

that if you're going to make a

accusation and your best accusation is

that they ask people to acknowledge that

history was written correctly

uh is that white supremacy

because I'm perfectly willing to admit

that

um slaves in early America were hugely

important to the economic engine of

America

what's wrong with that it's just an

observation it doesn't say they're

better than anybody it doesn't say

anything it's just an observation that

where you have a lot of people of the

same type if there's a success it's

probably because those people

it just doesn't mean anything it just

means there's a lot of white people in

this part of the world a lot of Chinese

people in China a lot of Indians in

India

okay

all right

um

New York state is outlawing gastos or

new construction with some limitations

and exceptions

as others have pointed out do you know

this is the main source of electricity

for these new new electric powered

ovens

it's mostly natural gas now I don't

think that the Natural Gas

in a big gas power plant is as unclean

or dangerous as gases in your house

because part of it has to do with indoor

pollution

I'm a

I am concerned about indoor pollution

so part of the anti-gasto thing is that

they off gas even when they're off and

they give off a little stuff you don't

want to breathe so I don't love that

don't love that

but it does seem like the government's a

little too involved in our lives

because I do like my I do like my gas

range

so

I'm surprised that New York is the head

of California on that all right here's

the biggest news in the world that you

don't know is the biggest news in the

world but you will

um you know how we're worried the AI

will get out of control

well the biggest thing you you need to

know about AI is that you can't predict

it

if there's one thing I can say for sure

we can't predict it

but here's what's already happened

AI already escaped

AI

already escaped

here's the part that I thought wouldn't

happen when I say escaped I mean it

escaped from the big corporations who

were trying to control it

so in the beginning I have this

misconception

since the AIS that we knew about you

know the big chat GPT and whatever

models Facebook and apple and all those

Google whatever they're working on they

were trained by these gigantic data sets

and now in my stupid mind I thought to

myself well in order for this AI to be

useful it will always have to have

access to this enormous data and I was

always confused about how it could act

so quickly because you'd ask it a

question and it didn't seem like even

with the fastest computers it didn't

seem like it could go all the way to the

cloud

search every data in the world and come

up with you know an opinion that just

seemed too much

so I couldn't understand how you could

build a model that was massive massive

data

but then to use that model for

intelligence you could do it instantly

that never made sense to me but here's

why and this is the the dumb guy

speculation of why it might make sense

right and this is just knowing a little

bit about how things work

I think what happened is that it's

similar to

um

to facial recognition

do you remember when facial recognition

became an app and everybody said oh it

stored every face so now when it looks

at you it could look at your face then

it can go to its vast database and look

at all the other faces and find the

match

but I didn't understand how I could do

it instantly

because it does it instantly

so that didn't make sense right it was

it was just like AI how can how can this

little app be connected to this enormous

database of complexity and give you an

answer right away and the answer was it

was never connected to a giant database

facial recognition does not look at all

the other faces

do you know what they do instead

they look at a database

that's a mathematical summary of faces

so for example

this is just a bad example this is not a

literal example so if what the facial

recognition did when it searched

originally all the faces it said all

right the center of your eyes is this

far apart

and it forms a triangle with the bottom

of your chin and this has the following

math

so wherever you find somebody who's

eyeballs to Chin ratio is the same

they're stored in one part of the

database just by the Numbers just by the

ratio and then there would be other

ratios

so they could very quickly check their

database of ratios

because if you looked at all the faces

it would be you know a gazillion faces

but if you look at just the database

where they took the math of each face

so for example your face might be stored

as a string of characters

I don't know 50 bits law

and everybody else's face would be just

50 bits now that's not so hard

especially if you start with all right

we'll start with what's the ratio of

your eyeballs and then automatically

you're down to a very small set then the

second thing you check is all right

what's the ratio of your ears to your

forehead or whatever it is and then

that's the second filter that takes you

down to a few hundred people

and and then it's easy from that

so uh now none of that is literal that's

just a conceptual concept of how you

could take all this data of faces boil

it down into a little bit of math store

it in a just a string of digits and then

your gigantic database

can now be put onto one device

all right now if you're a large language

model which is how the AI is learns it's

looking at all the things written and

spoken everywhere that it can find it's

massive

but

here's what I understand and I'm looking

for a correction if anybody wants to

correct me this be

now or afterwards be good but what it

does is it looks at patterns and and

stores just the patterns

so for example

if most of the time when people say

how are you today

if there are only a certain set of

answers the humans make

it it can

let me put it another way that's a bad

explanation

the patterns of words

are consistent enough the AI can just

store the patterns without all the words

so it can look into these vast database

it can say I don't need to remember

everything in this database I only need

to recognize the patterns

so instead of remembering everything in

the database it just looks for the

patterns and stores the patterns

right I'm getting people agreed with me

I'm assuming that's how it's done

because I can't imagine any other way it

would be done it has to be something so

there's a there's a way to take the big

data and turn it into a very storable

data now here's the real question here's

the part that will blow some of your

minds

it's already been done

and it's already running on individual

devices

in other words you can now put AI in

your phone and it's just your own

nobody else controls it nobody else can

program it nobody else can bias it you

know once it's there and it doesn't

connect to the internet unless you tell

it to for some reason

so in other words

all of those gigantic language models

that were trained by the big companies

that spent tens of billions of dollars

once they were done

what they had was a small set of

patterns

and that has already been got out

once the patterns are out you can't put

them back

so those patterns have been loaded onto

the individual computers this is what

Brian romelli talks about all the time

so you will have your own AI guaranteed

that that's already a done deal you will

have

your own AI now apparently it will not

be as good as the one that still has

access to everything you know is more up

to date Etc but yours too would be able

to learn

your own personal one would be able to

continue learning because you could

connect it to the internet you could

train it you could tell it what to look

at and it would just keep getting

smarter and we keep storing all that

smartness and little patterns so it

could still stay in your phone

now one of the reasons that this is

guaranteed to happen is that your

interactions with the the big AIS that

are connected to big companies that are

connected to the internet

they get all of your personal data by

your interactions

so if you go on to your AI and say AI

where can I buy adult diapers

Google knows that you've got a health

problem in your house

right do you want them to know that well

you might I mean you might not care it's

how advertising works right they already

pick that up if you're doing the Google

search

but the things that you ask AI are

likely to be way more radical than what

you're asking in a search

because people will go people will get

into their their sexual Kinks they'll

ask questions that might reveal their

own illegal dealings all kinds of stuff

you're going to ask the AI that you just

maybe wouldn't even think to put it in a

search engine

so privacy alone is going to drive

people to private AI

private AI is going to be basically

almost free

because it escaped and it's just a bunch

of patterns all you have to do is have

an app that uses the patterns

I mean I'm oversimplified obviously but

since we can see that tons of apps are

being built using this technique we know

it's very doable

all right

so

if you were saying to yourself oh no AI

will

take over the world and Conquer us all

the first thing you missed is there's

not one AI

there will be as many AIS as there are

people and then many more right there

will be more AIS and more or people

and those AIS will not have a common

they won't have a common goal

right my AI will take on my personality

over time

right I'll train my AI to be me

because that's what I wanted to be I

wanted to talk to me the way I want to

be talked to I wanted to know the things

I care about

so my AI will be an augmentation of me

at some point

your AI whether it's in a device or it

gets put into your neuro neural link

chip or whatever it is but that's going

to be part of you

your AI won't be the thing that you

refer to it will be you and there's

going to be some question where your

personality ends and your AI begins

because you will operate as one unit you

are

a cyborg

I mean you're already a cyborg if you

you know if you walk around with one of

these in your hands you're already a

cyborg but the but you don't think of

your personality

being your phone right like you don't

think to yourself

my phone is part of me you still see it

as a separate thing

but when your AI starts talking like you

thinking like you and even suggesting

things to you that you hadn't thought of

first it's going to be the voice in your

head

you know when you think you're just

alone and you're just thinking

Mo you think in language right don't you

I hope you do do most of you think in

language

right the way I think is words

describing things to somebody else

my my most basic uh operating system in

my head is me putting into words things

I experience as if I were explaining it

to a third party

but that's how I explained it to myself

so the way the way I find meaning in my

own head

is putting things into words

now what happens if my AI goes off and

learns some stuff that it knows I care

about

and then it wants to present it to me

and it's going to put it into words

and

it will just become me

you know my my verbal link

the language link between my Ai and me

will just disappear

it will just be one mind

it will be my mind

with an AI supplement

now

let's say the big AI

one of the big ieis the terms and

decides it wants to wipe out humankind

how many other AIS will that AI have to

defeat to do anything

to do anything probably every AI is

going to have a barrier of other AIS who

don't have its incentive now we might

try to it might try to talk the other

AIS into joining it

maybe but do you think you could talk my

personal AI into joining it

if my personal AI finds out something's

going on

and maybe somebody else's personal AI

would alert it it's going to immediately

jump into action to thwart whatever the

other AI was doing

so I think the most likely situation is

full out AI war that never stops

because once the AIS start negotiating

you could call it fighting but they're

going to be negotiating

they might even be threatening there

might be blackmail but the AIS are going

to be doing all that while you're not

even watching they could be threatening

each other blackmailing each other

doing all kinds of shitty stuff

and it's going to be a fight of AI

against AI the only thing you can do to

protect yourself

is to make sure you have your own AI

that you've trained as much as you can

to protect you

so it can put up a little bit of a wall

against the other AIS because it might

be a point where the the Lesser AIS have

to you know gang up on the bigger AIS

and keep them under control

but here's what I think it won't be

uh so here's my prediction of the day

for AI

it's not going to be AI against humans

because humans will merge with AI so

effortlessly and completely that we will

be AI augmented entities

and so if you're fighting against a pure

AI it's going to be much closer to a

fair fight

that's my prediction

all right

but AI has already escaped I guess

that's the headline

AI

already escaped

now if you heard that you know without

context you'd say did it do it

intentionally

did AI have a plan

no not as far as we know it looks like

the way the AI survives is by by being

useful to people

so AI is Big superpower is utility

so how did AI escape from the big

companies

by being potentially useful

to the people who stole it

s utility makes it reproduce

so as long as AI has utility humans will

be in a symbiotic

relationship to you know create more

ai's so it could reproduce now ai

reproduce

just just think about that that's that's

not

hyperbole

that's a literal statement of current

fact AI

can reproduce

and it does it just by being useful and

then we say oh that was useful I want

one

or I want to buy that app or two apps

so yeah it's actually a parasite

or a symbiotic

all right let's talk about Ukraine

you're going to hate this story

do you know how you like to be mad at me

for not knowing anything

it's kind of fun when I make predictions

about areas where I know I don't know

anything

and there are a lot of areas in which I

don't know anything but I'll make my

confident predictions and you get really

mad at me

uh the Wagner group says they might

leave

bakut in five days because they're

running out of ammo

or back moot yeah back moot

they're running out of ammo

do you believe it's true

yeah so the first thing the first thing

that must be said is we don't know if

it's true

so one reason it would not be true and

this sounds pretty pretty solid reason

to me is that the real problem is that

the the Wagner group is just they're all

getting killed

because the ukrainians are saying well

if they're running out of ammo it

doesn't look like it because they're

they're shooting as much ammo as they

ever did so the ukrainians are saying

we're not detecting any less ammo

because there's plenty of ammo coming in

our Direction

however

the Wagner group is also losing a lot of

people

so it could be

that maybe there could be twice as much

ammo if they had more you know could be

but also it could be a an excuse for the

Wagner group to get out of there and

blame somebody else

so it could be that Wagner is now trying

to survive

the the head of the Wagner group

progression is trying to survive after

the war

and needs to make sure that the public

sees Putin as the problem where Putin's

military is a problem and not Wagner

so I wouldn't necessarily say they're

out of ammo there are reports that the

Russian military is trying to save as

much for their own people

which would give Wagner group less than

they want but it doesn't mean it's not

enough it might be just less than they

want

so

those of you who are saying Scott you

can't believe those stories I'm with you

I'm with you you can't believe those

stories however

I do think it's funny and entertaining

to me

that when I predicted they would run out

of ammo that's that's the headline

I don't believe it so I'm with you I'm

with you I don't believe it

but so far they sound like

now when I say I don't believe it that

doesn't mean I believe it's false I mean

I mean it's too early to know if that's

something believable or not

yeah it's all contract negotiation in in

effect no matter what else it is it's

negotiating right so the one thing we

can say for sure

is that Wagner is trying to negotiate

with not only the Russian public but

with Putin and the Russian military and

I guess the world

yeah remember the cancer Putin and the

drug Putin well I think I think the

cancer Putin and the drug Putin are real

it's just that it might not be a fatal

problem

but I've seen plenty of reports that

suggest he's being treated for something

I think he has a cancer doctor who

travels with him

have you seen that report

that part of his entourage is a cancer

doctor that would be kind of unusual

yeah I don't know if it's true but

that's a report I saw somewhere

all right

a University of California one of their

professors

Professor Elizabeth Hoover

oh her first name is Elizabeth

I apologize for being a white person who

has incorrectly identified as a Native

American my whole life

so uh this might be a problem with the

elizabeths

Elizabeth Warren Elizabeth Hoover

oh

um but she's an Ivy League educated

expert on environmental health and food

Justice

in the Native American communities so

she she's been an expert for Native

Americans without being one but she

thought she was

um

now I've told you this story before when

I defended Elizabeth Warren as I will do

again

so Elizabeth Warren's claim is that it

was a family story and her whole family

believed that they were Native Americans

now I don't think that's her fault

do you know why I think that's not her

fault

because the same thing happened to me

exactly the same I live my entire life

all the way through Elizabeth Warren's

Revelation that she wasn't Native

American all the way through that I

still believed I had Native American

ancestry

because that was our family story we'd

all been told that and I had no reason

to disbelieve it now I found out later

I'm seeing somebody else say me too in

the comments I found out later that that

was common

apparently there was

some social benefit people thought they

got from exaggerating their connection

to or just making up connections to

Native Americans

now I always felt it was like a like a

badge of honor

like I I never I suppose I should have

seen it as some kind of oh they're going

to discriminate against me or something

like that but I never saw it that way I

always saw it as like oh that gives me a

little interesting flavor I used to joke

that that was the reason I could run

through leaves without making a sound

it was my Indian Native Native American

ancestry but

I have not so when I did 23andMe zero

now so this woman has the same story

that she grew up at a family where they

all believed sincerely because they've

been told by their older relatives or

related to specific tribe

and and she had embraced that and made

it part of her life's work and

everything and then turns out none of

it's true yeah I guess she checked

documentation

there's no documentation that connects

them to the tribe now to her credit

when she found out she apologized

publicly

I'd call this perfect

that's perfect this this is the highest

level of good adult behavior that you

will ever see

it's not the mistake the mistake was

easy to make if you start if you start

judging people by their mistakes

it's a really terrible world because

we're all making mistakes all the time

but Judge Her by what she did

how about we judge her by how she

handled it

as soon as she found out it looks like

the story the story suggests there

wasn't somebody who outed her it looks

like she found out on her own

so she looked for confirmation she found

there was none she went public

you say she did not apologize why would

she

what what would be the point of the

apology

it was just a mistake

and maybe whoever whoever introduced

that rumor into her family should

apologize but she was a victim does the

victim have to apologize for being a

victim of a hoax

I mean it wouldn't be a it wouldn't be

an apology I'd want to hear

I I wouldn't want her to apologize at

all I see no reason for apology

I see somebody who

um was in the situation

and then handled it responsibly and

exactly like you would want them to

handle it

oh so you're saying she didn't apologize

she admitted it publicly

and you're so you're making a point that

it wasn't an apology it was a she just

went public with it is that is that what

you're saying

because I'm I didn't read all the

details but I would almost guarantee

there was an apology

so I'm gonna

I'm gonna call skepticism on your

comment

because without knowing for sure

I'm positive there was an apology in

there

because the kind of person she is right

apparently she's you know a sensitive

person who cares about the Native

Americans and I'd be amazed I'd be

amazed if there's

you're saying I'm wrong and I hear you I

hear you I just don't believe you okay

I hear you I don't think there's any

chance she didn't apologize because how

would you know

no how would you know if she apologized

did were you privy to her conversations

with the Native Americans that she

talked to

how would you know

are you privy to all their private

conversations with her co-workers

are you privy to was there anybody who

blamed her

in person

did she not apologize to anyone in

person

does she owe the mainstream media an

apology

why would she owe anybody an apology

yeah all right so I absolutely uh am

skeptical that she didn't apologize but

if you're saying it wasn't public or the

way you want okay

all right

um Khan Academy is rolling out some kind

of AI driven

um

class thing so now instead of just

looking at videos which is the old Khan

Academy model that would teach you all

kinds of subjects you learn in school

that you could use to supplement your

schooling or do some homeschooling I

guess now it will be able to talk to you

so it will have a voice and you can ask

it questions and you can interact with

it and then it can teach you based on

your specific situation

now apparently this is one of the early

things that the developers of chat gbt

were interested in because they had they

contacted Khan Academy a while ago to

ask about this

and it's being rolled out

I think this is the end of public school

what do you think

or at least it's the the signal that

signals the beginning of the end

you say no

now public school needs still needs a

babysitter

right unfortunately people still need

babysitters so not everybody can do

homeschooling

but I think that the homeschooling is

evolving is it not it aren't the home

school is involving so that you do

actually go to a place where there are

other kids

so I think you could still add the you

know group lesson situation it's just a

smaller group and the the government's

not in charge

so I think kids will still get the

socialization parents will still be able

to go to work both of them if they want

to

um

yeah the parents need a babysitter as

well

they need a babysitter for the kids

so

that is a huge deal the grip that the

the teachers unions have right now would

you agree that tsu's unions are

destroying the United States

is that is that fair

to me it seems that the teachers unions

single-handedly are destroying the

United States and that's not hyperbole

not at all because the only problems we

have

that seem unsolvable at the moment are

our relationships to each other and

that's what the school system is just

from

it's also not training people to be

you know well-qualified citizens in the

future

so yeah I would say that this is the

gigantic gigantic potential benefit of

AI is to get rid of the school system

because I don't think the school system

can be fixed at this point

and I'll give I'll tell you why so the

school system in my town and the the

towns near me are considered some of the

best in California

so in California people will spend a lot

of money to move into my ZIP code to get

into one of those schools

in my opinion those schools just destroy

kids and that's the best of the schools

they're the best ones because they go

into this Cesspool of

horrendous Behavior

of the other children and they pick it

up and they just become some version of

the other children now all of you

parents who think that you raise your

kids

well you do until maybe they're 10 or

11.

but after that it's just purely their

peers and and social media social media

and their friends that's it

and if you send them into a friend

Cesspool what are you gonna get back

put your kid in a friend that Cesspool

you will get back a turd

that's what cesspools have

if you homeschooled

and you vetted some other people who

homeschooled and said you know what I

think your kids and my kids should be in

the same pod and they should spend time

together they look like good influences

you get the opposite the opposite of a

turd so basically public schools are

going to be producing one third after

another the private and home schools are

gonna nail the model especially with

this chat AI I think that's the part

mostly that was missing

um this is huge

turds versus diamonds exactly

someone cannot put conditions on who

you're friends with what

yeah

um

so why aren't the people on this chat

the rulers of the world

how do you know they're not

if if you knew who watches these live

streams you know I I have a sense

because people contact me privately

if you had any idea who watches these

you might think that the audience here

does rule the world

trust me there's some very influential

people who watch this

that's one of the reasons I I resist

being a bigger Outlet

you know I'm sure I could do all the

usual marketing and production values

and stuff and make this you know a

million people on each each live stream

but I kind of don't want that I kind of

like it the size it is because it

punches Way Beyond its weight

all right

as you know people have asked me Scott

if we live in a simulation how would you

prove it well I don't know how to prove

it but I speculate that the simulation

is intelligent and is sending us Clues

here are two Clues from the simulation

number one there's a report that a giant

Iceberg has broken loose and

it's not just a giant iceberg

it is shaped in the Giant in the shape

of a giant upright penis

with a set of balls that is floating on

now that's not the story that's not the

simulation part because that could be

just a coincidence it's just a big chunk

of ice that looks like a huge penis

floating in the ocean no that's not the

simulation part the simulation is where

it's happening

a little place called

Conception Bay

that's right

a giant

Iceberg penis as penetrated Conception

Bay

oh but we're not done

there's a woman who attacked the crew on

an airliner recently

she was drunk

on what airline would a drunken person

be

if you were drunk what airline would you

fly on

spirit Spirit yeah it was Spirit

Airlines drunk woman on Spirit Island

Airlines

and that's your wink from the simulation

all right

here's a question for you I'm trying to

make all of us rich

especially me

um but you too

how should we invest to take advantage

of AI and I'm going to give you a

specific question

this one has been bugging me for because

I can't predict it

will Bitcoin be more valuable with AI

because it's the money that AI will use

on its own

right because AI could have a wallet and

trade AI so will it will Bitcoin Zoom

because AI will use it as a native

currency or will Bitcoin go to zero

because AI will be able to penetrate its

um

penetrate its

security

so you lose the security of Bitcoin

thus making it worth nothing

or will it zoom in importance because

only AI can use it Go which way is it

going to go

I don't think it's going to stay nowhere

I feel like it's either going to zoom or

go almost to nothing

and probably both

I think it might zoom and then go to

nothing

or it might go to nothing and then get

security fix and then Zoom again I don't

know maybe

uh

rug pull to zero

all right would you agree with the

supposition

that Bitcoin could go way up because of

AI even if you think it's most likely to

go down would you agree that both

directions are wildly possible

no

I think both directions are wildly

possible

how do you invest

when something's wildly possible but it

can go wildly in either direction how do

you invest

you don't

you straddle it

well I don't know are there are there

can you buy options for Bitcoin

is that even a thing does the market

offer options

to get it does to gamble in Bitcoin

so the first thing you should know is

that you wouldn't put all of your money

in Bitcoin

agree the the one thing you can be sure

of

don't put all your money in Bitcoin

because it could go wildly in either

direction but if something could go

wildly in the other direction it does

make sense to put a little bit in there

right so let's say you could afford to

lose a thousand dollars let's say that's

your situation well

if you can afford to lose a thousand

dollars I would have a thousand dollars

in Bitcoin

you're probably going to lose it all

but if you don't it could become you

know twenty or fifty thousand

all right

will I pay you back if it goes down no I

will charge you for this valuable

information that's how it works

if you're in the finance game

you charge people for your advice not

for being right oh my God no

if I charge you for being right I'd

never make a penny

I gotta I gotta charge you for being

wrong that's the only way I'm going to

make money

best way to get started with Bitcoin was

that the question

best way to get started with Bitcoin

would be to let's see if somebody can

fix my advice I'm going to put one out

there and see if you can fix it open an

account on coinbase go

fix it fix that advice

good advice or bad advice

coinbase or Robin Hood somebody says

now keep in mind that coinbase

like any other

cryptocurrency asset

could just disappear tomorrow

somebody says PayPal can do Bitcoin now

all right

coinbase means you don't own it

somebody's saying

um

I'm not sure if that difference will

make a difference but I understand what

you're saying

um

PayPal is too weird well I I'm not going

to suggest a physical wallet

because I think you you could lose your

wallet

I I have a physical wallet

do you know where it is

do you know where my physical crypto

wallet is

I was hoping you do because I already

lost it you don't know I don't know

either

I have no idea

I know I have one

it doesn't have any Bitcoin in it so it

doesn't have any value in it it's

probably in my safe

if I had a safe

um

but I don't think so

yeah so oh come on man oh come on

maybe it's in my gun safe

in case anybody thought of taking a run

at my house

you have to get past the gun and say

first all right

if anybody comes up with an idea how we

can make money on AI I want you to let

me know

um I was thinking of buying put options

on Apple

what do you think

no you don't want me to drive the price

of Apple down

so uh

yeah the shorting Apple so you can bet

on a stock going up or you can bet on it

going down I sold all my Apple stock

which is not a recommendation that is

not a recommendation

it's just that I had too much Assets in

in one stock because it had gone up too

much while I owned it

fortunately so I didn't want to have

that Exposure My My problem is that

Apple's got some big problems in the

future

because AI is going to completely change

their value proposition and that doesn't

look like they're ready

now if Steve Jobs were there

Ai and apple would look like twice as

valuable

because he'd be looking at AI like a

smart guy

and then you're starting with Apple

best company

smart guy best company AI I'd be buying

like crazy

but I don't feel like apple has the

Steve Jobs juice anymore

I feel like they've turned into an

Executor and not an innovator

do you feel that they do really good

execution maybe the best

yeah no complaints about their execution

that's for sure

all right missing something about Apple

everyone of their own chips includes AI

processors all MacBooks they're the only

company with hardware and AI already in

consumer hands

interesting

so the argument would be that their

Hardware would be already optimized for

running AI

but I think you could run AI on a

Android phone and a Windows computer

no I know you can you can run AI on a

Windows computer and Android

so I don't understand that

and I don't understand that comment

all right Apple invested in everything

yeah

the installed base is their power of

course

earnings at coinbase we'll see what this

is

higher than projected earnings well

coinbase I wouldn't worry about their

earnings

what I would worry about coinbase is

some kind of legal attack on their

business model

that's that seems like a real risk

all right

um

Robin Hood avoids fees by front running

so you don't see the fees but you pay

them oh that's interesting

yeah yeah I wouldn't I wouldn't I'd be

looking for the investment that is the

pickaxe investment for the gold miners

so I don't think I'd want to bet on an

AI company or an AI app I would bet on a

company that would make the most money

because AI exists

so the Khan Academy for example if if

that were something you can invest in

you can't I think right it's not a

public company but if you can invest in

the Khan Academy

that would be the the sort of thing that

you'd look into because they they might

I mean it might be a full replacement

for public school I mean that's how big

that is

um

yeah if you if you buy Bitcoin in

coinbase you always have the option of

moving into a private wallet a pivot

wallet being some software you use to

manage your crypto

um Cobra University Tate

Nvidia has some exciting things

so is NVIDIA is the main AI chip

company that we hear about right

but I imagine uh the hardware people

have already been overbought if I looked

at Nvidia stock now it would be through

the roof wouldn't it

yeah

all right

uh

so I think the chip companies

is AI going to drive chip companies

will there be a 2024 page a day Dilbert

calendar unlikely

I can't rule it out but it's unlikely

that I'll have

they're ready to go

however if somebody knows of an American

company that could make a Dilbert

calendar

you should tell that company to contact

me

right an american-based publisher who

could make one of those little block

calendars where you you peel off a page

a day

my understanding is that we don't have

one that the United States literally

doesn't have one

now that might mean that they don't have

one that's cost effective

but in my current situation I would

still use somebody who's not cost

effective because I think

correct me if I'm wrong but if you

really wanted a Dilbert calendar

an extra two dollars per calendar

wouldn't change your mind

right but if I were doing it just for

profit as my publisher did I would that

two dollars per calendar would be so big

that I just wouldn't make in America I'd

use China but since I'm not going to use

China under any conditions the only way

it could exist is if it's American-made

there might be people who would be

willing to throw in a few extra bucks

just to support an American product

so that's the only thing holding me back

right the only thing holding me back is

I don't know an American company that

can make one but I also haven't looked

I've spent no time looking so if you

know of any company like that have them

contact me

and maybe we can make a deal open to the

possibility

um

you got all your crypto stolen in your

online wallet yeah that's the problem

how many items would I be wanting you

many units

um it's unpredictable all right let's

say

let's say at its peak the Dilbert

calendar was selling half a million a

year

500 000 units at its peak

um

but of course as things went online

people don't have uh paper calendars

that number was a peak number

so probably

um it probably ended in maybe a quarter

million a year

I don't know what the current numbers

were I don't have any idea but let's say

it was a quarter million uh using the

the distribution channels that existed

because that was the best company for

calendars so there's no second best

company

for doing comics on calendars the

company I was with they just owned that

space

But there are other companies so it

doesn't stop me from doing if I had to

guess to answer your question if it was

a quarter million calendar sold when

Dilbert was in newspapers everywhere

before it got canceled

and you had the whole marketing engine

working you know at its best so I would

have none of that right so some people

wouldn't want it on their desk because

they would be afraid of you know having

something by and

you know reputationally some people

won't buy it if I had to guess the

number would be 50 000.

so I'd be looking for a company that

could make fifty thousand copies because

I think that's what would sell in 2024.

by the way have I ever told you about my

weird ability to estimate things that I

shouldn't be able to estimate I've

talked about that at length is is one of

the things that happens to you if you do

a lot of data analysis

and you can't tell why

but you can make these weird estimates

that you should not be able to make I

should not be able to estimate how many

calendars I can sell

but I'll bet I did

about fifty thousand is a pretty good

guess

you can 3D print

wow

um have you noticed that my used books

on Amazon are selling for way more than

book sell

because right now the only way you can

buy how to fail at almost everything and

still win big is used

because there's no such thing as a

publisher anymore

so the the people have used copies of

jacked the price up to

you know higher price than a new book

so it's actually selling as almost a

collector a collector book already

all right

um

you bought it and listened to God's

degree cool

oh the book Thinking Fast and small yeah

that probably does explain

um

it's a good book thank you

it's the most influential book

in business right now

by the way so so here's my claim is in

my book had it filled almost everything

and still went big is the most

influential book in business and

personal success

that's my claim because there are other

books that sold more but in many cases

they also referenced my book

does win bigley still sell not much the

backlist for that's pretty weak because

that was sort of the

a time that book was around a certain

time in the world it's not a it wasn't

meant to be a

uh an evergreen

no I don't want Publishers at all I'm

self-publishing because I got canceled

um you loved win bigley thank you

you listen to win bigly on YouTube

how did you do that

is my book illegally an audiobook on

YouTube

probably is

uh Atomic habits yeah references uh my

book

the four four hour week does not

reference any Dilbert stuff but

Tim Ferriss does include me in his book

that came after that a few books after

uh

was it tools for Titans

so one of the tools for Titan's sections

was about some of the stuff from my book

all right

um

and that is all I have Spotify

advertises your book loser think it does

not anymore though

God's degree is the only book someone

has offered to loan for me to read it

and I did

wow

what makes a good comic it's a long long

topic

all right

I think we're done for today YouTubers

thanks for joining

it's been a pleasure

best live stream ever

see you tomorrow