Episode 239 Scott Adams - The Kavanaugh One-Week Delay
Applying the “Corporate Filter” to the one week Kavanaugh delay ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ I fund my Periscopes and podcasts via audience micro-donations on Patreon. I prefer this method over accepting advertisements or working for a "boss" somewhere because it keeps my voice independent. No one owns me, and that is rare. I'm trying in my own way to make the world a better place, and your contributions help me stay inspired to do that. See all of my Periscope videos here… https://www.pscp.tv/ScottAdamsSays/1nAKERDOwylGL Find my WhenHub Interface app here… https://interface.whenhub.com
Ba ba boom, ba ba ba ba boom boom boom pop boom boom. Hey everybody, come on in here. We got news breaking. It's breaking all over the place. It's so broken I don't know if we can put it back together.
View segment →But so I went offline for just a few hours, thinking to myself, I'm thinking to myself, "Hey self, it looks like there's nothing going to happen Friday afternoon. Yeah, this Kavanaugh thing will just take the vote next week." And then I turn on my phone and it turns out we have a one-week delay. So…
View segment →Now you're probably wondering, will this be a big deal or a little deal? Should we worry about this? What's gonna happen? Well, I'll give you my best take on this. So as I often say, your filter on the world depends on your experience and a little bit about how you were born. But if you look at the…
View segment →But the other filter that I like to put on this I got from my corporate days. Let's call this the corporate filter. Now the corporate filter is really about any large organization. There are things that are true of a large organization in terms of their inefficiencies, the way they operate, how fast…
View segment →And here's the filter I put on the one-week delay. Number one, the Democrats painted themselves in a corner. All right, so there's sort of a good news, bad news situation here. I'll just spell it out. The bad news for the Democrats is that they made such a big deal about saying it's just one week, w…
View segment →let me just tell Christina I'm on Periscope because she's much more important than all of you. Sorry, sorry. I'm gonna say I'll get here in 20 minutes. All right, now we're back to you. Back to you. You have my full attention now.
View segment →So the first thing is the Democrats painted themselves in a corner by saying "one week" so often that if the Republicans give them one week, it's gonna be harder for them to say, "I don't know, that one week wasn't enough." Now of course they will say that, so there's a hundred percent chance they'l…
View segment →Here's a question for you. I'm kind of wondering about the mechanics of getting to the polling places. How many people drive? Most people, right? Wouldn't you say probably 80%? Is that a fair estimate? 80% that drive to vote. What about those families that are split? So what about the families that…
View segment →All right, I'm just looking at your comments. You equate women with abortion. Somebody says not entirely. That's a big part of it though. It's a big part of it in terms of the way the parties are shaping up and specifically the Democrats.
View segment →So I watched some of the hearing today and I saw Ted Cruz talk and I thought Ted Cruz was sensational, you know, in terms of how well he presented a case. I'll tell you, Ted Cruz was not a perfect candidate. Yeah, you know, maybe he'll be better if he tries again later. He seems to be getting better…
View segment →Ba ba boom, ba ba ba ba boom boom boom pop boom boom. Hey everybody, come on in here. We got news breaking. It's breaking all over the place. It's so broken I don't know if we can put it back together.
But so I went offline for just a few hours, thinking to myself, I'm thinking to myself, "Hey self, it looks like there's nothing going to happen Friday afternoon. Yeah, this Kavanaugh thing will just take the vote next week." And then I turn on my phone and it turns out we have a one-week delay. So the president has agreed — I think he just took the lead of Congress to request it — but he's agreed for a one-week delay to investigate with the FBI the accusations, the credible accusations, against Judge Kavanaugh.
Now you're probably wondering, will this be a big deal or a little deal? Should we worry about this? What's gonna happen? Well, I'll give you my best take on this. So as I often say, your filter on the world depends on your experience and a little bit about how you were born. But if you look at the Kavanaugh situation, you're saying to yourself, well, if you're a woman who's ever had any run-in with sexual abuse, which turns out to be just about every woman, you're automatically looking at it through a filter of, "Hey, people who are accused are usually guilty." If you were a man who has been accused, if you've been unfairly accused of anything, you might be looking at it like Kavanaugh is being unfairly accused. So everybody's bringing their filter to this. You know, you're a Democrat, you're a woman, you're a man, Republican, whatever you are.
But the other filter that I like to put on this I got from my corporate days. Let's call this the corporate filter. Now the corporate filter is really about any large organization. There are things that are true of a large organization in terms of their inefficiencies, the way they operate, how fast or slow they are. They're sort of common across all large organizations. So the FBI in this case would be a large organization. So I'm going to apply the corporate filter — you might call it the Dilbert filter — to this situation. Do you like that name, the Dilbert filter? Mm-hmm, could be a book someday.
And here's the filter I put on the one-week delay. Number one, the Democrats painted themselves in a corner. All right, so there's sort of a good news, bad news situation here. I'll just spell it out. The bad news for the Democrats is that they made such a big deal about saying it's just one week, what's one week, you only need one week. And they repeated "one week" so often that it sort of hardened in our minds as, "Yeah, these things take one week. It's a one-week situation. One week."
So the clever thing that the Republicans have done, and President Trump and whoever else, the clever thing they've done — let me just tell Christina I'm on Periscope because she's much more important than all of you. Sorry, sorry. I'm gonna say I'll get here in 20 minutes. All right, now we're back to you. Back to you. You have my full attention now.
So the first thing is the Democrats painted themselves in a corner by saying "one week" so often that if the Republicans give them one week, it's gonna be harder for them to say, "I don't know, that one week wasn't enough." Now of course they will say that, so there's a hundred percent chance they'll say that one week isn't enough, we need more. But they did kind of paint themselves in a corner with that one-week stuff. So the president says, "I'll give you a week. I'll give you a week."
Now here's the fun part. Here's the Dilbert filter on this: no organization can do anything in one week. That's it. That's the only filter you need to know. Nobody can do anything in a week. Now they can move and make phone calls and write stuff down, but they can't really do much. What they can do in a week is going to look like a few days of interviews and a few days of writing stuff up and a few days to travel. All right, it's gonna be so little that they can do that they're basically going to be talking to the same people they talked to now.
Is there a risk that they'll find some new thing about Kavanaugh? Yes. The odds of them finding something new were very high, but it probably will be easily dismissed as just another thing that somebody's trying to pile on.
But here's the other interesting part. You know how people said if Kavanaugh were really the person he was portrayed to be, then you would see a pattern of it? People who are abusers tend to be abusers. All right, and then sure enough you saw some low-credibility accusations, but people aren't quite giving them the same amount of weight. So it doesn't really look like there's a pattern.
But here's another pattern: people who have false memories and people who accuse other people of doing bad stuff accuse other people of doing bad stuff. So I will be very interested to know — and this would be a good question for the FBI to ask Dr. Ford — have you ever accused anybody else of something that didn't pan out in terms of a conviction? Have you ever had a memory problem? Have you ever taken any kind of pharmaceutical or recreational drug that would cause a memory problem? Wouldn't you like to know the answers to those questions? And those are the types of things that would not be asked, you know, in front of Congress. But the FBI would certainly have a perfectly good reason to ask those questions.
Now given that we have no witnesses who will say they were at the scene and saw something, and given that I think it's impossible that there will be physical evidence, really it's just talking to people and asking questions. And when they talk to all the people who would be potentially anti-Kavanaugh, they're gonna say probably the same thing they said, which is, "We don't have any memory of anything like that." So that's sort of a dry hole, right? Every time you talk to somebody, if they say, "I can't," there's no follow-up question to be had. "I have no memory of this. That's as far as I can go."
But when you're talking about Dr. Ford, you've got a lot of stuff you can ask because you're trying to find out about her credibility. So you can expand those questions to anything she does or has done that gets to credibility. Here's an example: one of the accusers who made the most outrageous claims about the gang rapes and stuff, apparently that accuser's ex-boyfriend has come public and said, "I've got every — had a restraining order against her. She has no credibility whatsoever." Does Dr. Ford have anyone in her circle — an ex-patient, an ex-boyfriend, an ex-anything — who believes that she made something up about them? Yeah, how many people has she dealt with? Is there anybody who would tell a story like a co-worker?
Imagine the most common thing you could think of if you've ever worked in a big organization. Here's the Dilbert filter again. One of the most common situations you can think of is your co-worker imagines something that happened that didn't happen. How many of you have worked in an organization where your co-workers were absolutely positive you did something that you didn't do? They're positive you stabbed them in the back but you didn't. You're positive that they were the source of the rumor but you weren't. They're positive you were trying to undermine them, that you came in late and lied. They're positive you've done these things but you didn't.
So will there be people who say that Dr. Ford has made claims about them that they know to be untrue? Now here's the fun part. Suppose Dr. Ford has made claims about other people that were true but they can't be proven. And then you interview that other person. You say, "Oh yeah, Dr. Ford is a serial accuser. She accused me of, you know, running over a dog or something." And then you can't prove it one way or another. So maybe she was actually accurate. Maybe her other accusations were actually absolutely true. But if you've got somebody who goes on record and says, "Yeah, she also accused me of something I didn't do," and you can't tell if she did it or not, it doesn't help her story.
So I would say there's a slightly bigger risk to the accuser than there is to the accused. Because the accused, so far there's no physical evidence and no human being who can put him in the situation. Now will they ask questions like, "Brett Kavanaugh, yeah you said you never pass out, but somebody — will you say under oath that you've never fallen asleep after having a beer?" So they might ask some gotcha questions. But remember, Judge Kavanaugh is probably one of the most qualified people in the world to avoid those very questions. You know, can you think of anybody you would be more capable of avoiding a trap question? I can't. He probably has just about the best kind of experience you would want for somebody to understand what legal jeopardy looks like, what a trap question looks like. I like his odds.
So I would say that both of them are taking a risk. So the extra week is a risk for Kavanaugh. It's a risk for Dr. Ford. If I were to compare those risks, it feels like she has a slightly bigger risk. And the risk that is the biggest is that there would be something anecdotal in her situation — something she did at work, someone else she accused, some medicine she was on, some mental problem she had in the past that might have been perfectly normal and she's already completely recovered. But if you have enough time, it's pretty easy to draw a picture of Ford as a person who might make a false accusation. Right now there's nothing in evidence that would give you any kind of character insight on the false accusation memory question. All right. And then she might have other connections to other Democrats, and that would work against her as well.
Garbage. Somebody says he is guilty and lies a lot. Well, we don't know, but you see that. A lot of people had the same, "Oh yeah." So there's the yearbook stuff. Suppose they say to Kavanaugh, "The devil's triangle definitely means three-way sex. That's what I think it means. I've never heard it in another context. The only context I've heard is three-way sex." So did Judge Kavanaugh lie about the meanings of the things in his yearbook? Probably. Probably did. Did Dr. Ford lie when she says she remembers having exactly one beer that night? Probably. Probably. But I'm not sure we should judge too much about the small lies, because really they weren't central to the question or shouldn't have been. And they were just trying to make that stuff go away. It's stuff that kids do.
All right, her yearbook is worse than his. Someone says I've heard that but I haven't seen it yet. How does it persuade the midterms? Well, it depends. We'll have a week to find out and then we'll know.
Here's a question for you. I'm kind of wondering about the mechanics of getting to the polling places. How many people drive? Most people, right? Wouldn't you say probably 80%? Is that a fair estimate? 80% that drive to vote. What about those families that are split? So what about the families that have a Republican dad and, you know, a Hillary-loving mom who drives them to the poll? Well, if it's like just about every other family, if the man and woman are getting in a car and they're going someplace, who drives? If it's just the man and the woman, they're a couple and they're driving to the polling place, which one of them drives? Well, it could be either one. But who usually drives? Right, who usually drives everywhere? Well, I just look, you know, look on the highway. If you're driving, whenever you see a couple, who's driving? Is it the man or the woman? Pretty much it's the guy. The guy is usually driving.
And you have an interesting situation where if the men decided not to drive anybody else, just themselves, what would that do to the election result? So I'm not suggesting this. I was just thinking of things which could affect the midterms and how this has become sort of a gender midterm, where it really is starting to look like the Democratic Party is shaping up as the party for and about women as the highest priority. And again, every time I say this I'm gonna add to it: nothing wrong with that. All right, it's a free country, democracy. They can organize their party along any lines they like. It might even be a good idea. It's hard to judge. But it's just a reality that the Democratic Party is sort of a female-centric party.
And what would happen if the men who were Trump supporters said, "This time I'll just drive myself and you know there's nothing stopping you from going separately." But you know, if it's really come down to a battle of the genders, maybe men will drive themselves. So I'm not suggesting that's going to happen or that it should happen. It was just a funny thought I had, which is the people who drive the cars create a lot of friction. By friction I mean anytime anything gets a little bit harder it changes. So if you made, for example, if voting was just a little bit harder for people from Elbonia, that would be measurably less voting. As soon as you make things easier there's more of it. As soon as you make things a little harder there's less of it. So I can imagine if this becomes more of a gender-against-gender issue that how you get to the poll might enter the conversation in a funny way that it shouldn't. So I'm not suggesting that's a good idea. I'm just — I just thought it might get to that.
All right, I'm just looking at your comments. You equate women with abortion. Somebody says not entirely. That's a big part of it though. It's a big part of it in terms of the way the parties are shaping up and specifically the Democrats.
So I watched some of the hearing today and I saw Ted Cruz talk and I thought Ted Cruz was sensational, you know, in terms of how well he presented a case. I'll tell you, Ted Cruz was not a perfect candidate. Yeah, you know, maybe he'll be better if he tries again later. He seems to be getting better all the time. But as a lawyer he was really good. And then following him was Chris Coons, the Democrat. And Chris Coons was even a little bit better. I thought he was magnificent. Right? So agree with me even if you might have disagreed with them. Wouldn't you say that Ted Cruz did a really solid communication, persuasion, lawyer job of setting out the situation? It was great. But then Coons, the Democrat, who was sort of the rebuttal, I thought he was even a little bit better. He was really, really good. Like for a moment there — it didn't last very long — but for a moment I was proud of my government. Did you feel that if you watched it? Did you have a moment where you watch Ted Cruz do a really smart, classy job and then the Democrat does a rebuttal? It's polite, it's professional, it's smart, it's great. You know, you could agree with one of them or not the other, but those were two smart people doing the people's work. And for a moment I watched these two people and I had respect for my government and it felt good. I liked it. Made me feel great.
And then I tuned back in a little bit later and I watched Cory Booker. And I watched Cory Booker until all of my hope had drained out of my body. Cory Booker compared to Chris Coons — it's Chris I think — or to Ted Cruz is just not on the same level. I mean, he was very passionate and that part's good. You know, that will carry him far. He was an advocate for women and to the degree that that helps him on the Democrat side that was probably effective. But man, he is not good. Well, you know, you put him on a stage with Ted Cruz and with Coons and he's just gonna disappear. So I would say that there isn't the slightest chance you can have President Cory Booker. He just disappears against the smarter folks, frankly.
All right, I do think — I think Kamala — I think, sorry, I got a funny meme from Christina. I do think Kamala Harris has got a — she's a much stronger player. She's smarter. She's got more game in every way. So you know, you may not like her, you may not like her politics, she probably don't, but in terms of persuasion and game and intelligence she seems to have the whole package.
Anyway, I am going to talk to you all later. Bye for now.
ba-ba-boom ba-ba ba-ba boom boom boom pop boom boom hey everybody come on in here we got news breaking it's breaking all over the place it's so broken I don't know if we can put it back together but so I went offline for just a few hours thinking to myself I'm thinking to myself hey self it looks like there's nothing going to happen Friday afternoon yeah this Cavanaugh things will just take the vote next week and then I turn on my phone and it turns out we have a one-week delay so president has agreed I think he just took the the lead of Congress to request it but is agreed for a one-week delay to investigate with the FBI the accusations the credible accusations against judge Cavanaugh now you're probably wondering will this be a big deal more a little deal should we worry about this what's gonna happen well I'll give you my best take on this sue as I often say you're a filter on the world depends on your experience and a little bit about how you were born but so if you look at the the Cavanaugh situation you're saying to yourself well if you're a woman who's ever had any run-in with the sexual abuse which turns out to be just about every woman you're you're automatically looking at it through a filter of hey people who are accused are usually guilty if you if you were a man who has been accused if you've been unfairly accused of anything you might be looking at it like Cavanaugh is being unfairly accused so everybody's bringing their filter to this you know you're a Democrat you're a woman you're man Republican whatever you are but the the other filter that I like to put on this I got from my corporate days let's call this the corporate filter now the corporate filter is really about any large organization there are things that are true of a large organization in terms of their inefficiencies the way they operate how fast or slow they are they're sort of common across all large organizations so the FBI in this case would be a large organization so I'm going to apply the corporate filter you might call it the Dilbert filter to this situation do you like that name the Dilbert filter mm-hmm could be a book someday and here's the filter I put on the one week delay number one the Democrats painted themselves in a corner all right so there's sort of good news bad news situation here I'll just spell it out the bad news for the Democrats is that they made such a big deal about saying it's just one week what's one week you only need one week and they repeated one week so often that is sort of hardened in our minds as yeah these things take one week it's a one week situation one week so the clever thing that the Republicans have done and President Trump and whoever else work clever thing they've done let me just tell Christina I'm on a periscope because she's much more important than all of you sorry sorry um I'm gonna say I'll get here in 20 minutes all right now we're back to you back to you you have my full attention now so so the first thing is the Democrats painted themselves in a corner by saying one week so often that if the if the Republicans give them one week it's gonna be harder for them to say I don't know that one week wasn't enough now of course they will say that so there's a hundred percent chance they'll say that one week isn't enough we need more but they did kind of paint themselves in the corner with that one week stuff so the president says I'll give you a week I'll give you a week now here's the fun part here's the Dilbert filter on this no organization can do anything in one week that's it that's the only filter you need to know nobody can do anything in a week now they can move and make phone calls and write stuff down but they can't really do much what they can do in a week is going to look like a few days of interviews and a few days of writing stuff up in a few days to travel all right it's gonna be so little that they can do that they're basically going to be talking to the same people they talk to now is there a risk that they'll find some new thing about Kavanagh yes the the odds the the odds of them finding something new were very high but probably will be easily dismissed as just just another thing that somebody's trying to pile on but here's the other interesting part you know how people said if Cavanaugh were really the person he was portrayed to be then you would see a pattern of it people who are abusers tend to be abusers all right and then sure enough you saw some low credibility accusations but people aren't quite giving them the same same amount of weight so it doesn't really look like there's a pattern but here's another pattern people who have false memories and people who accuse other people of doing bad stuff accuse other people of doing bad stuff so I will be very interested to know and this would be a good question for the FBI to ask dr.
Ford have you ever accused anybody else of something that didn't pan out in terms of a conviction have you ever had a memory problem have you ever taken any kind of pharmaceutical or recreational drug that would cause a memory problem wouldn't you like to know the answers to those questions and those are the types of things that would not be asked you know in front of Congress but the FBI would certainly have a perfectly good reason to ask those questions now given that we have no witnesses who will say they were at the scene and saw something and given that I think it's impossible that there will be physical evidence really it's just talking to people and asking questions and when they talk to all the people who would be potentially anti Kavanagh they're gonna say probably the same thing they said which is we don't have any memory of anything like that so that's sort of a dry hole right every time you talk to somebody if they say I can't there's no follow-up question to be had I have no memory of this that's as far as I can go but when you're talking about dr.
Ford you got a lot of stuff you can ask because you're trying to find out a better credibility so you can expand those questions to anything she does or has done that gets to credibility here's an example one of the accusers who made the most outrageous claims about the the gang rapes and stuff apparently that accusers ex-boyfriend has come public and said I've got every had a restraining order against her she has no credibility whatsoever does dr.
Ford have anyone in her circle a an ex-patient an ex next boyfriend and ex anything who believes that she made something up about them yeah how many people is she dealt with is there anybody who would tell a story like a co-worker imagine the most common thing you could think of if you've ever worked in a big organization here's the Dilbert filter again one of the most common situations you can think of is your coworker imagines something that happened that didn't happen how many of you have worked in an organization where your co-workers were absolutely positive you did something that you didn't do they're positive you stabbed him in the back but you didn't you're positive that they they were the source of the rumor but you weren't they're positive you were trying to undermine them that you you came in late and lied they're positive you've done these things but you didn't so will there be people who say that dr.
Ford has made claims about them that they know to be untrue now here's the fun part suppose dr.
Ford has made claims about other people that were true but they can't be proven and then you then you interview that other person you say oh yeah dr.
Ford is a serial accuser she accused me of you know running over a dog or something and then you can't prove it one way or another so maybe she was actually accurate maybe her other accusations were actually absolute true but if you've got somebody who goes on record and says yeah she also accused me of something I didn't do and you can't tell if you did it or not it doesn't help her story so I would say there's a slightly bigger risk to the accuser than there is to the accused because the accused so far there's no physical evidence and no human being who can put them on the put him in the situation now will they ask questions like Brett Kavanaugh yeah you said you never pass out but somebody can you will you say under oath that you've never fallen asleep after having a beer so they might ask some gotcha questions but remember judge Kavanaugh it's probably one of the most qualified people in the world to avoid those very questions you know can you think of anybody you would be more capable of avoiding a trap question I can't you probably has just about the best kind of experience you would want for somebody to understand what legal jeopardy looks like what a what a trap question looks like I like his odds so I would say that both of them are taking a risk so the extra the extra week is a risk for Kavanaugh it's a risk for dr.
Ford if I were to compare those risks it feels like she has a slightly bigger risk and the risk that is the biggest is that there would be something anecdotal in her situation something she did at work someone else she accused some some medicine she was on some mental problem she had in the past that might have been perfectly normal and she's already completely recovered but if you have enough time you it's pretty easy to draw a picture of Ford as a person who might make a false accusation right now there's nothing in evidence that would give you any kind of character insight on the false accusation memory question all right and then she might have other connections to other Democrats and that would that would work against her as well garbage somebody says he is guilty and lies a lot well we don't know but you see that a lot of people had the same oh yeah so there's the the yearbook stuff suppose suppose they say to Cavanaugh the devil's triangle definitely means three-way sex that's what I think it means I've never heard it in another context the only context I've heard is three-way sex so did judge Cavanaugh a lie about the meanings of the things in his in his yearbook probably probably did dr.
Ford lie when she says she remembers having exactly one beer that night probably probably but I'm not sure we should we should judge too much about the the small lies because really they weren't central to the question or shouldn't have been and they were just trying to make that stuff go away it's stuff that kids do all right her work her yearbook is worse than his someone says I've heard that but I haven't seen it yet how does it persuade the midterms well it depends we'll have a week to find out and then we'll know here's a here's a question for you I'm kind of wondering about the mechanics of getting to the polling places how many people drive to most people right wouldn't you say probably 80% is that a fair estimate 80% the drive to vote what about those families that are split so there what about the families that have a Republican dad and you know Hillary loving mom who drives them to the poll well if it's like just about every other family if the man and women are getting in a car and they're going someplace who drives if it's just the man and the woman they're a couple and they're driving to the polling place which one of them drives well it could be the one but who usually drives right who usually drives everywhere well I just look you know look in the highway if you're driving whenever you see a couple who's driving is it the man or the woman pretty much it's the it's the guy the guy is usually driving and you have an interesting situation where if the men decided not to drive anybody else just themselves what would that do to the election result so I'm not suggesting this I was just thinking of things which could affect the midterms and how this has become this has become sort of a gender midterm where you know it really is starting to look like the the Democratic Party is shaping up as the party for and about women as the highest priority and again every time I say this I'm gonna add to it nothing wrong with that all right it's a free country democracy they can organize their party on along any lines they like it might even be a good idea it's hard to judge but it's just a reality that the Democratic Party is sort of a female centric party and and what would happen if the men who were Trump supporters said this time I'll just drive myself and you know there's nothing stopping you from going separately but you know if it's really come down to a battle of the genders maybe man will drive themselves so I'm not suggesting that's going to happen or that it should happen it was just a funny thought I had which is the people who drive the cars create a lot of friction by friction I mean anytime anything gets a little bit harder it changes so if you made for example if voting was just a little bit harder for people from elbonia that would be measurably less voting as soon as you make things easier there's more of it as soon as you make things a little harder there's less of it so I can imagine if this becomes more of a gender against gender issue that how you get to the pole might enter the conversation in a in a funny way that shouldn't so I'm not suggesting that's a good idea I'm just I just thought it might get to that alright I'm just looking at your comments you equate women with abortion somebody says not entirely that's a big part of it though it's a big part of it in terms of the way the parties are shaping up and specifically the the Democrats so I watched some of the hearing today and I saw Ted Cruz talk and I thought Ted Cruz was sensational you know in terms of how well he presented a case I'll tell you Ted Cruz was not a perfect candidate yeah you know maybe he'll be better if he tries again later he seems to be getting seems to be getting better all the time but as a lawyer he was really good and then following him was Chris Coons the Democrat and Chris Coons was even a little bit better I thought he was magnificent right so agree agree with me even if you might have disagreed with them wouldn't you say that Ted Cruz did a really solid communication persuasion lawyer job of you know setting out the situation it was great but then Coons the Democrat who was sort of the rebuttal I thought he was even a little bit better he was really really good like for a moment there it didn't last very long but for a moment I was proud of my government did you feel that if you watched it did you have a moment where you watch Ted Cruz do a really smart classy job and then the Democrat does a rebuttal it's polite it's professional it's smart it's great you know you could agree with one of them or not the other but those were two smart people doing the people's work and for a moment I watched these two people and I had respect for my government and it felt good I liked it made me feel great and then I tuned back in a little bit later and I watched Cory Booker and I watched Cory Booker until all of my hope and drained out of my body Cory Booker compared to Chris Coons it's Chris I think or to Ted Cruz is just not on the same level I mean his is he was very passionate and that part's good you know that will carry him far he was he was an advocate for women and to the degree that that helps him on the Democrat side that was probably effective but man he is not good well you know you put him on a stage with Ted Cruz and and with Coons and he's just gonna disappear so I would say that there isn't a slightest chance you can have president Cory Booker he just disappears against the you know that the smarter smarter folks frankly all right I do think I think Kamala I think sorry I got a funny meme from Christina I do think Kamala Harris has got a she's a much stronger player she's smarter she's she's got more game in every way so you know you may not like her you by now locked her politics she probably don't but in terms of you know of persuasion and game and intelligence she seems to have the whole package anyway I am going to talk to you all later bye for now
ba-ba-boom ba-ba ba-ba boom boom boom
pop boom boom hey everybody come on in
here we got news breaking it's breaking
all over the place it's so broken I
don't know if we can put it back
together but so I went offline for just
a few hours thinking to myself I'm
thinking to myself hey self it looks
like there's nothing going to happen
Friday afternoon yeah this Cavanaugh
things will just take the vote next week
and then I turn on my phone and it turns
out we have a one-week delay so
president has agreed I think he just
took the the lead of Congress to request
it but is agreed for a one-week delay to
investigate with the FBI the accusations
the credible accusations against judge
Cavanaugh now you're probably wondering
will this be a big deal more a little
deal should we worry about this what's
gonna happen well I'll give you my best
take on this sue as I often say you're a
filter on the world depends on your
experience and a little bit about how
you were born but so if you look at the
the Cavanaugh situation you're saying to
yourself well if you're a woman who's
ever had any run-in with the sexual
abuse which turns out to be just about
every woman you're you're automatically
looking at it through a filter of hey
people who are accused are usually
guilty if you if you were a man who has
been accused if you've been unfairly
accused of anything you might be looking
at it like Cavanaugh is being unfairly
accused so everybody's bringing their
filter to this you know you're a
Democrat you're a woman you're man
Republican whatever you are but the the
other filter that I like to put on this
I got from my corporate days let's call
this the corporate filter now the
corporate filter is really about any
large organization there are things that
are true of a large organization in
terms of their inefficiencies the way
they operate how fast or slow they are
they're sort of common across all large
organizations so the FBI in this case
would be a large organization so I'm
going to apply the corporate filter you
might call it the Dilbert filter to this
situation do you like that name the
Dilbert filter mm-hmm
could be a book someday and here's the
filter I put on the one week delay
number one the Democrats painted
themselves in a corner all right so
there's sort of good news bad news
situation here I'll just spell it out
the bad news for the Democrats is that
they made such a big deal about saying
it's just one week
what's one week you only need one week
and they repeated one week so often that
is sort of hardened in our minds as yeah
these things take one week it's a one
week situation one week so the clever
thing that the Republicans have done and
President Trump and whoever else work
clever thing they've done let me just
tell Christina I'm on a periscope
because she's much more important than
all of you sorry sorry um I'm gonna say
I'll get here in 20 minutes
all right now we're back to you back to
you you have my full attention now so so
the first thing is the Democrats painted
themselves in a corner by saying one
week so often that if the if the
Republicans give them one week
it's gonna be harder for them to say I
don't know that one week wasn't enough
now of course they will say that so
there's a hundred percent chance they'll
say that one week isn't enough we need
more but they did kind of paint
themselves in the corner with that one
week stuff so the president says I'll
give you a week I'll give you a week now
here's the fun part here's the Dilbert
filter on this no organization can do
anything in one week that's it that's
the only filter you need to know nobody
can do anything in a week now they can
move and make phone calls and write
stuff down but they can't really do much
what they can do in a week is going to
look like a few days of interviews and a
few days of writing stuff up in a few
days to travel all right it's gonna be
so little that they can do that they're
basically going to be talking to the
same people they talk to now is there a
risk that they'll find some new thing
about Kavanagh yes the the odds the the
odds of them finding something new were
very high but probably will be easily
dismissed as just just another thing
that somebody's trying to pile on but
here's the other interesting part you
know how people said if Cavanaugh were
really the person he was portrayed to be
then you would see a pattern of it
people who are abusers tend to be
abusers all right and then sure enough
you saw some low credibility accusations
but people aren't quite giving them the
same same amount of weight so it doesn't
really look like there's a pattern but
here's another pattern people who have
false memories and people who accuse
other people of doing bad stuff accuse
other people of doing bad stuff so I
will be very interested to know and this
would be a good question for the FBI to
ask dr. Ford
have you ever accused anybody else of
something that didn't pan out in terms
of a conviction have you ever had a
memory problem have you ever taken any
kind of pharmaceutical or recreational
drug that would cause a memory problem
wouldn't you like to know the answers to
those questions and those are the types
of things that would not be asked you
know in front of Congress but the FBI
would certainly have a perfectly good
reason to ask those questions now given
that we have no witnesses who will say
they were at the scene and saw something
and given that I think it's impossible
that there will be physical evidence
really it's just talking to people and
asking questions and when they talk to
all the people who would be potentially
anti Kavanagh they're gonna say probably
the same thing they said which is we
don't have any memory of anything like
that so that's sort of a dry hole right
every time you talk to somebody if they
say I can't there's no follow-up
question to be had I have no memory of
this that's as far as I can go but when
you're talking about dr. Ford you got a
lot of stuff you can ask because you're
trying to find out a better credibility
so you can expand those questions to
anything she does
or has done that gets to credibility
here's an example one of the accusers
who made the most outrageous claims
about the the gang rapes and stuff
apparently that accusers ex-boyfriend
has come public and said I've got every
had a restraining order against her she
has no credibility whatsoever does dr.
Ford have anyone in her circle a an
ex-patient an ex next boyfriend and ex
anything who believes that she made
something up about them yeah how many
people is she dealt with is there
anybody who would tell a story like a
co-worker imagine the most common thing
you could think of if you've ever worked
in a big organization here's the Dilbert
filter again one of the most common
situations you can think of is your
coworker imagines something that
happened that didn't happen how many of
you have worked in an organization where
your co-workers were absolutely positive
you did something that you didn't do
they're positive you stabbed him in the
back
but you didn't you're positive that they
they were the source of the rumor but
you weren't they're positive you were
trying to undermine them that you you
came in late and lied they're positive
you've done these things but you didn't
so will there be people who say that dr.
Ford has made claims about them that
they know to be untrue now here's the
fun part
suppose dr. Ford has made claims about
other people that were true but they
can't be proven and then you then you
interview that other person you say oh
yeah dr. Ford is a serial accuser she
accused me of you know running over a
dog or something and then you can't
prove it one way or another so maybe she
was actually accurate
maybe her other accusations were
actually absolute
true but if you've got somebody who goes
on record and says yeah she also accused
me of something I didn't do and you
can't tell if you did it or not it
doesn't help her story so I would say
there's a slightly bigger risk to the
accuser than there is to the accused
because the accused so far there's no
physical evidence and no human being who
can put them on the put him in the
situation now will they ask questions
like Brett Kavanaugh yeah you said you
never pass out but somebody can you will
you say under oath that you've never
fallen asleep after having a beer so
they might ask some gotcha questions but
remember judge Kavanaugh it's probably
one of the most qualified people in the
world to avoid those very questions you
know can you think of anybody you would
be more capable of avoiding a trap
question
I can't you probably has just about the
best kind of experience you would want
for somebody to understand what legal
jeopardy looks like what a what a trap
question looks like I like his odds so I
would say that both of them are taking a
risk so the extra the extra week is a
risk for Kavanaugh it's a risk for dr.
Ford if I were to compare those risks it
feels like she has a slightly bigger
risk and the risk that is the biggest is
that there would be something anecdotal
in her situation something she did at
work someone else she accused some some
medicine she was on some mental problem
she had in the past that might have been
perfectly normal and she's already
completely recovered but if you have
enough time you it's pretty easy to draw
a picture of Ford as a person who might
make a false accusation
right now there's nothing in evidence
that would give you any kind of
character insight on the false
accusation memory question all right and
then she might have other connections to
other Democrats and that would that
would work against her as well
garbage somebody says he is guilty and
lies a lot well we don't know but you
see that a lot of people had the same oh
yeah so there's the the yearbook stuff
suppose suppose they say to Cavanaugh
the devil's triangle definitely means
three-way sex that's what I think it
means I've never heard it in another
context the only context I've heard is
three-way sex so did judge Cavanaugh a
lie about the meanings of the things in
his in his yearbook probably probably
did dr. Ford lie when she says she
remembers having exactly one beer that
night probably probably but I'm not sure
we should we should judge too much about
the the small lies because really they
weren't central to the question or
shouldn't have been and they were just
trying to make that stuff go away it's
stuff that kids do all right
her work her yearbook is worse than his
someone says I've heard that but I
haven't seen it yet how does it persuade
the midterms well it depends we'll have
a week to find out and then we'll know
here's a here's a question for you I'm
kind of wondering about the mechanics of
getting to the polling places how many
people drive to
most people right wouldn't you say
probably 80% is that a fair estimate 80%
the drive to vote what about those
families that are split so there what
about the families that have a
Republican dad and you know Hillary
loving mom who drives them to the poll
well if it's like just about every other
family if the man and women are getting
in a car and they're going someplace who
drives if it's just the man and the
woman they're a couple and they're
driving to the polling place which one
of them drives well it could be the one
but who usually drives right who usually
drives everywhere well I just look you
know look in the highway if you're
driving whenever you see a couple who's
driving is it the man or the woman
pretty much it's the it's the guy the
guy is usually driving and you have an
interesting situation where if the men
decided not to drive anybody else just
themselves what would that do to the
election result so I'm not suggesting
this I was just thinking of things which
could affect the midterms and how this
has become this has become sort of a
gender midterm where you know it really
is starting to look like the the
Democratic Party is shaping up as the
party for and about women as the highest
priority and again every time I say this
I'm gonna add to it nothing wrong with
that all right it's a free country
democracy they can organize their party
on along any lines they like it might
even be a good idea it's hard to judge
but it's just a reality that the
Democratic Party is sort of a female
centric party
and and what would happen if the men who
were Trump supporters said this time
I'll just drive myself and you know
there's nothing stopping you from going
separately but you know if it's really
come down to a battle of the genders
maybe man will drive themselves so I'm
not suggesting that's going to happen or
that it should happen it was just a
funny thought I had which is the people
who drive the cars create a lot of
friction by friction I mean anytime
anything gets a little bit harder it
changes so if you made for example if
voting was just a little bit harder for
people from elbonia
that would be measurably less voting as
soon as you make things easier there's
more of it as soon as you make things a
little harder there's less of it so I
can imagine if this becomes more of a
gender against gender issue that how you
get to the pole might enter the
conversation in a in a funny way that
shouldn't so I'm not suggesting that's a
good idea I'm just I just thought it
might get to that
alright I'm just looking at your
comments you equate women with abortion
somebody says not entirely that's a big
part of it though it's a big part of it
in terms of the way the parties are
shaping up and specifically the the
Democrats so I watched some of the
hearing today and I saw Ted Cruz talk
and I thought Ted Cruz was sensational
you know in terms of how well he
presented a case I'll tell you Ted Cruz
was not a perfect candidate yeah you
know maybe he'll be better if he tries
again later he seems to be getting seems
to be getting better all the time but as
a lawyer he was really good and then
following him was Chris Coons the
Democrat and Chris Coons was even a
little bit better I thought he was
magnificent
right so agree agree with me even if you
might have disagreed with them wouldn't
you say that Ted Cruz did a really solid
communication persuasion lawyer job of
you know setting out the situation it
was great but then Coons the Democrat
who was sort of the rebuttal I thought
he was even a little bit better he was
really really good like for a moment
there it didn't last very long
but for a moment I was proud of my
government did you feel that if you
watched it did you have a moment where
you watch Ted Cruz do a really smart
classy job and then the Democrat does a
rebuttal it's polite it's professional
it's smart it's great you know you could
agree with one of them or not the other
but those were two smart people
doing the people's work and for a moment
I watched these two people and I had
respect for my government and it felt
good I liked it made me feel great and
then I tuned back in a little bit later
and I watched Cory Booker and I watched
Cory Booker until all of my hope and
drained out of my body Cory Booker
compared to Chris Coons it's Chris I
think or to Ted Cruz is just not on the
same level
I mean his is he was very passionate and
that part's good you know that will
carry him far he was he was an advocate
for women and to the degree that that
helps him on the Democrat side that was
probably effective but man he is not
good well you know you put him on a
stage with Ted Cruz and and with Coons
and he's just gonna disappear so I would
say that there isn't a slightest chance
you can have president Cory Booker he
just disappears against the you know
that the smarter smarter folks frankly
all right I do think I think Kamala I
think sorry I got a funny meme from
Christina I do think Kamala Harris has
got a she's a much stronger player she's
smarter she's she's got more game in
every way so you know you may not like
her you by now locked her politics she
probably don't but in terms of you know
of persuasion and game and intelligence
she seems to have the whole package
anyway I am going to talk to you all
later bye for now
