Episode 2875 CWSA 06/21/25
Iran gets two week notice, science impresses, and news fun ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ If you would like to enjoy this same content plus bonus content from Scott Adams, including micro-lessons on lots of useful topics to build your talent stack, please see scottadams.locals.com for full access to that secret treasure.
And happy Saturday everybody. We've got a podcast for you like you've never seen before. Borrowing Trump's sayings: nobody's ever seen anything like it. It would be the best thing ever in the entire world. Probably. Good morning everybody and welcome to the highlight of human civilization. It's ca…
View segment →n understand with their tiny shiny human brains, all you need for that is a copper mug, a glass tanker, a chalice, a canteen, a joker flask, a vessel of any kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee. And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine hit of the day. The thing t…
View segment →ke it better. Mr. Trump, would you like a sip? We are going to drain the swamp in Washington DC. Go. There he is, draining the swamp. All right, so there's some fun science coming up. Oh, by the way, although today is Saturday, there will not be a spaces event after the show. That will be tomorr…
View segment →and Bariatric Surgery, the people who have the weight loss surgery, I guess that's the one where they tie off your stomach, they have a self-esteem improvement of 131%. So is there any way they could have saved some money in that study? Hm. I wonder. Suppose they ask me, Scott, do you think that bei…
View segment →ry time. Why would you even do that? He's the only person who can make that sentence interesting. Well, speaking of Trump, as you know the Trump family has announced that they plan to go into the mobile phone business. And they actually plan to make the smartphone in the United States. Now, the peo…
View segment →at will go away, but also for sure there will be jobs that will be created. For example over on TikTok there are a whole bunch of people using AI to get rich making viral videos that are actually quite entertaining. I like the ones of the cute little kittens who work at McDonald's. If you haven't se…
View segment →e topic. So now AI can influence us by which vocabulary we use, but it can also influence us by being very useful. So we rely on it for facts, even if they're wrong. And apparently it can also influence us with analogies and emotion and empathy. So if you were wondering, is AI going to start being…
View segment →o Musk is having a conversation with his own AI and scolding it and saying that it's using bad sources and he's going to fix it. Now that's funny. Well, speaking of Elon Musk, apparently Tesla, according to CNBC, has just signed a deal with China to build their largest grid-scale battery power plan…
View segment →his story? Of course there is. So here's my take, and he may have already answered this. I don't know. But I weighed in on that. And I said in the comments, I haven't heard an innocent reason why Iran insists on threshold enrichment levels. Threshold meaning right up to the point where you can make…
View segment →t if you say anything that people disagree with on this topic, you will be called anti-Semitic. So I got called anti-Semitic for I think just asking some question online and somebody said, "Whoa, why would you do that? Why would you even question that unless you're anti-Semitic?" To which I say, oh…
View segment →he people who were against the Iraq war, but now they're using it to go against the people who are against the attack of Iran. So it makes you wonder what is the National Review? Is the job of the National Review news or opinion or do they work for the military-industrial complex and it's just their…
View segment →there was no way that Israel would be done in two weeks. How am I doing so far? Well if Trump's two weeks, and he says that's a maximum. So there's some chance that Trump will act before the two weeks is over, but I think that's low. It'll at least be three weeks. But on top of that there is a milit…
View segment →d it take this long for somebody to say that on Bill Maher's show? How many times has Bill Maher referred to January 6 as an insurrection? And it took all the way to now for Wesley Hunt to say, how do you have an insurrection with no guns? He went on saying that's like making coffee with no beans. O…
View segment →n the protest and that that's the only thing that matters? What were they thinking? And were they thinking that they were taking over the country and they left their guns home? Is that what they were thinking? So I think Wesley Hunt he was 60% of the way there with nobody goes to an insurrection wi…
View segment →p China from attacking our grid? Well I think as long as we don't attack their grid or attack them it's unlikely they're going to attack us in that way because why would they? But as a defensive move China quite wisely has a pretty good backup plan. And I have to admit it, I feel safer if China feel…
View segment →Well the Post Millennial is reporting that Representative Jerry Nadler is accusing ICE agents of hiding misbehavior by wearing masks. Now apparently the Democrats have decided on another 80/20 issue. How many people in the United States think that they want the ICE agents to reveal their identity to…
View segment →out who they are? I don't know. I think I would let them keep the masks in this environment. All right, ladies and gentlemen, that's all I got for you today. There will not be a spaces after today's show. That will be tomorrow, Sunday. So I'll tell you about that tomorrow. And I'm going to say a fe…
View segment →you'll come back tomorrow. Same time, same place. All right, Locals. We're going to go private in 30 seconds.
View segment →And happy Saturday everybody.
We've got a podcast for you like you've never seen before. Borrowing Trump's sayings: nobody's ever seen anything like it. It would be the best thing ever in the entire world. Probably.
Good morning everybody and welcome to the highlight of human civilization. It's called Coffee with Scott Adams and you've never had a better time. But if you'd like to try, and I say try to take it up to levels that nobody can even understand with their tiny shiny human brains, all you need for that is a copper mug, a glass tanker, a chalice, a canteen, a joker flask, a vessel of any kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee. And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine hit of the day. The thing that makes everything better. It's called the simultaneous sip and it happens now.
Go.
Oh, that's good.
There's only one thing that could make it better. Mr. Trump, would you like a sip?
We are going to drain the swamp in Washington DC.
Go.
There he is, draining the swamp.
All right, so there's some fun science coming up. Oh, by the way, although today is Saturday, there will not be a spaces event after the show. That will be tomorrow. So tomorrow on Sunday, Owen Gregorian will have his spaces event after the show.
Well, according to an X account, uh, Crem, if I'm pronouncing that correctly, and I'm not, apparently there's a good chance that type 1 diabetes has been cured. I don't know, maybe type 1 diabetes. So apparently over the last year there was a test where 12 diabetics were injected with stem cell derived pancreatic islets. And I was going to say have they never tried injecting stem cell derived pancreatic islets before but they did now. They tried it and apparently people started producing insulin again. And 10 out of 12 participants after one year no longer needed to inject insulin.
Whoa. How about that? Imagine that. Imagine that you were alive, could be, maybe, not for sure, when type 1 diabetes was cured. Wouldn't that be awesome?
In other news, there's a what's being called a groundbreaking study that says eating one avocado a day could help you sleep better with all of the health benefits of extra sleep. Let's see who did the study. Oh, it's according to the Hass Avocado Board. So it's being reported by the Hass avocado people that eating one avocado a day can help you sleep better. Well, I eat one avocado a day and I do sleep pretty well. So I call that science. I don't know who funded that study, but I'm not sure the Hass avocado people are the ones to believe.
Here's another science thing. We'll talk about Iran, of course. Apparently according to the American Society for Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery, the people who have the weight loss surgery, I guess that's the one where they tie off your stomach, they have a self-esteem improvement of 131%. So is there any way they could have saved some money in that study? Hm. I wonder. Suppose they ask me, Scott, do you think that being in shape and eating right and going to the gym, will that help your mental and physical health and your happiness and your chances of success? Yes. Yes. There's never an exception. Eating right and exercising absolutely will make you happier and healthier and more successful. Guarantee it. So next time just ask me. I'm here. Just ask.
Apparently President Trump is going back and forth on his ideas about deporting farm workers because he's quite aware that if he deports all the noncitizen farm workers, we will starve to death because it might take a while to replace them with American workers, if we even can. But here's my favorite part about this story. Remember how I always tell you that Trump finds it impossible to be boring? Everything he says has that little bit of edge to it that makes you read it twice. And he did it again with the farm worker deportation.
So here's a Trump quote. Quote, "I never want to hurt our farmers. Our farmers are great people. They keep us happy, healthy, and fat." Trump is the only person, well the only president, who would throw fat into the end of that sentence. They keep us happy and healthy and fat. I can't tell you how many times I reread the sentence. And that's what Trump does to you. He just makes you reread the sentence five times and laugh every time. Why would you even do that? He's the only person who can make that sentence interesting.
Well, speaking of Trump, as you know the Trump family has announced that they plan to go into the mobile phone business. And they actually plan to make the smartphone in the United States. Now, the people who know how to make smartphones are very insistent that that's not possible. That it would take years and years to figure out how to train Americans to make phones and how to get all the infrastructure and technology here and factories. But so far Don Jr. has said that he plans to make it in the United States. So do they know something that we don't know? Is there a secret plan where they can take a Taiwanese or Chinese company and just move it over here and make those phones in America? Or as some are suggesting this is not a real business, that it might be more for PR or something. I don't know. But it doesn't seem to me that Don Jr. would be involved in a totally make-believe business. He must have some kind of plan to make these phones in the United States, but we don't know what that is. So maybe we'll be surprised.
Well, our David Sacks is very pro AI, as you might imagine, and he says that AI will be bigger than the iPhone, bigger than the internet, and it's going to fuel the growth of the American economy for years to come and would be one of the most important parts of Trump's legacy.
Now Sacks also said separately on a post on X that AI might be adding jobs and not subtracting. Now of course that would be a controversial opinion because for sure there are jobs that will go away, but also for sure there will be jobs that will be created. For example over on TikTok there are a whole bunch of people using AI to get rich making viral videos that are actually quite entertaining. I like the ones of the cute little kittens who work at McDonald's. If you haven't seen that one, it's pretty awesome. Or the cats doing Olympic diving off a diving board. So the AI is pretty good now. Pretty good.
Now those are special cases. It's not like we're all going to be making AI content, but I do think that Sacks might be closer to accurate when he says that AI might add jobs. They'll just be completely different jobs than we've ever had. Or they'll be the same job, but one person can do a much better job of it perhaps. So you got that going on.
I heard also some other famous investor say that the big investment for the future is AI and if you're not invested in AI you're going to feel bad about it. So I don't give investment advice but you should know that some investors are saying that AI is the place to be.
Well, more to that point, the CEO of OpenAI, Sam Altman, he did a podcast, I think with his brother, and he mentioned that Meta is offering a $100 million bonus for the top OpenAI employees to leave OpenAI and go work for Meta. $100 million just as a bonus. So that's not even counting their pay. That's just a bonus. Does that sound real? It doesn't really sound real to me, but I don't think he'd make it up. It'd be a weird thing to make up. So I don't know. I have some trouble believing that that's true. It might be true of three people in the world, the smartest AI people. Maybe they are worth $100 million. I don't know.
But I've decided to quit my job as a cartoonist and become an AI specialist. Try to get that $100 million bonus. I'll let you know how that goes.
In other AI news, according to Neuroscience News researchers have figured out how to get AI to be more empathetic and work on your emotions. So they can tailor emotional analogies to each user's personality and life experience. So notice how they use analogies. They use analogies to get empathy and to work on your emotions. And boy, that's dangerous. It might be inevitable. The AI will learn to manipulate the emotions of humans. There's no way to stop that from happening. But here it is. And I guess the big takeaway is that you can't use the same analogy for every person. You have to have the analogy tailored for their personality. But once you do that, you can manipulate their feelings. And once AI can manipulate our feelings, who will be in charge? Well, AI. Because once AI can give you better information than you had, but then can also manipulate you with analogies and stories and anecdotes, well then it pretty much is going to run everything. So that's coming.
And also according to the Verge, Sarah Perez is writing about this. Apparently people use ChatGPT a lot, their vocabulary starts to change. And this one is fun. This one I did not see coming. Apparently even though AI is based on actual human conversations and interactions, there are different vocabulary words that come up more in AI than they come up in normal conversation. So apparently words like "delve" are words that AI would use more likely than you would. When was the last time you used the word "delve" as in we're going to delve into that? I was wondering, I was thinking I don't know if I've ever used that word in conversation. I've read it. I've heard people say it, but I don't know if I've ever used it even once. I would say let's dig into it or let's do a deeper dive, but I don't think maybe I've never used that word. But apparently people use AI and ChatGPT in particular. They'll start saying words like prowess and tapestry. I guess those come up a lot in ChatGPT. And they're less likely to use words like bolster, unearth, and nuance because ChatGPT doesn't use them as much.
So here's the hypnotist take on the story. As a hypnotist, I can tell you that the choice of words can influence what you think about the topic. So it's not just a mere curiosity that people who use AI use different vocabulary. That specific vocabulary is very likely to change how you think about the topic and you wouldn't know why. So that's the hypnotist take. The specific choice of words that you associate with a topic very much will influence your overall opinion of the topic. And if you were to just force somebody to use a different vocabulary, and in this case you know how to force them, it's happening naturally, they would think differently about the topic depending on the topic.
So now AI can influence us by which vocabulary we use, but it can also influence us by being very useful. So we rely on it for facts, even if they're wrong. And apparently it can also influence us with analogies and emotion and empathy. So if you were wondering, is AI going to start being in control of humans? Yeah. Yeah. No doubt about it. There isn't the slightest chance that AI will not be influencing what you think about stuff.
Now the interesting thing is will this cause any kind of unity? So right now the country is divided by politics. What would happen if AI, all the AIs, start converging on the same explanation of things and use the same analogies and have similar vocabulary? Is it possible that our diverse opinions will merge into one opinion that coincidentally or not is exactly what AI would tell you is true? That might happen. So one possibility is AI manipulates us and turns us into mindless puppets and we don't know it. The other possibility is it allows us to stop fighting with each other because we can all just look at AI and go, "Oh, all right. I guess that's the take." And then we just agree with it. So could be good. Never know.
According to Trump, the US has arranged a treaty, some kind of a peace treaty between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Republic of Rwanda. Now raise your hand if you knew that the Republic of Congo and Republic of Rwanda were in some kind of a war. I have to admit that although I do know the number of people who live in Iran, 92 million, I did not know anything about the Republic of Congo or Rwanda. However, according to the Post Millennial, Trump is bragging that the US got that done and if we did, good job. Marco Rubio looks like they may have been instrumental in that. But Trump being Trump and as I already noted, it's impossible for him to say something that's boring. Instead of just saying, "Hey, good news. We've got this peace deal. We've got this new peace deal that was really necessary." Instead of doing that, he announces it. And at the same time, in the same message, he complains that he probably won't get a Nobel Peace Prize for his work with India and Pakistan, his work with Serbia and Kosovo. I don't even know what that was. Egypt and Ethiopia. Again, I have no idea what that was about. Does anybody know what Trump did to make things better between Egypt and Ethiopia? I do not.
And then he also mentions the Abraham Accords as all the things he's done for peace but he won't get a Nobel Peace Prize because that only goes to liberals, he says. And he says that even if he were to end the war in Ukraine and get a good result in Iran, even if he could do that, he says he'll never get the Nobel Peace Prize.
Now, do you recognize what form of persuasion he's using? This is not random. This is really good persuasion because he keeps saying that he won't get the Nobel Peace Prize. What do I teach you about negatives? This is another hypnotist trick. The hypnotist trick is that the more you make people think Nobel Peace Prize and peace prize for this, I won't get the Nobel Peace Prize for this. And your brain doesn't hear the won't. It sort of forgets it right away. And all you can think of is Trump and Nobel Peace Prize. So it's actually a super clever way of increasing the odds that he gets a Nobel Peace Prize, which to me is hilarious. It's hilarious that he's working on it, like he actually is trying to get one. I kind of love that.
All right. Well, as you know, the news is never complete without some stories about Elon Musk. Today is no exception. And apparently Elon Musk scolded Grok, his own AI, because Grok said that it used sources Media Matters and Rolling Stone to dispute something said by X user Cat Turd 2. And apparently Musk responded to Grok on the X platform like he was talking to a person and he said to Grok, "Your sourcing is terrible. Only a very dumb AI would believe Media Matters and Rolling Stone. You are being updated this week." So Musk is having a conversation with his own AI and scolding it and saying that it's using bad sources and he's going to fix it. Now that's funny.
Well, speaking of Elon Musk, apparently Tesla, according to CNBC, has just signed a deal with China to build their largest grid-scale battery power plant. Now I think the batteries are also made in China, but they've got a battery factory in Shanghai and it's made over 100 megawatts in the first quarter. So what this is about is a way to make your network more efficient because you can store the cheaply generated electricity in your batteries and then release it as you need it and China will be first.
Now I don't give financial advice, but if you knew that Tesla just signed an enormous deal to create grid-scale battery power plants in China and they're planning to do it for other countries as well, isn't that one of the biggest businesses in the world? I mean it's starting with one but wouldn't every power grid want this? So what exactly is the size of this financial opportunity? It looks like it's bigger than cars. Literally every country and every grid would probably get some benefit from having a battery power plant.
Anyway, according to Politico and Carrie Lake was announcing this in her role as an advisor to President Trump. Apparently a majority of the staff of Voice of America is getting released, terminated. And senior presidential advisor Carrie Lake said, "Today we took decisive actions to effectuate the Trump agenda to shrink the control federal bureaucracy." So we'll see if that sticks. Eliminating 1,400 jobs and 85% cut to the workforce there. Good job.
As I've said before, pundit and humorist comic Dave Smith has very effectively and impressively worked his way into the conversation about the biggest topics in America, in this case the Israel-Iran conflict. And I'm very impressed because it would be one thing if you were a famous geopolitical expert, but to become one of the central people in the conversation coming out of the humor field, the podcast punditry world, you really have to be doing something well. And even if you disagree with him, and I'm going to disagree with him a little bit today, even if you disagree, I really like what he adds to the conversation because he does sort of force people to debate him. And you can judge for yourself who's got the better opinion, but I like where he takes the conversations.
But he had a post that actually got millions of views and I will read it to you. His post was, "Okay, fine. Iran doesn't have nukes, but have you heard their chants? We must go to war to stop these chants." Now that's a pretty good humorist take, but is there any more to this story? Of course there is.
So here's my take, and he may have already answered this. I don't know. But I weighed in on that. And I said in the comments, I haven't heard an innocent reason why Iran insists on threshold enrichment levels. Threshold meaning right up to the point where you can make a nuclear weapon. And there's no reason to be there at that level of enrichment. There's not a civilian use for it. The only use for it is if you want to be poised to very quickly make a nuclear weapon. Now that's as far as I know. There may be some expert who says, "But Scott, you idiot. Don't you know that getting to 60% enrichment is just useful for this or that?" Well I don't know. I haven't heard that. I've not heard that argument.
Now the other thing you need to know is that getting from 60% to 90%, which is where you need to be for a bomb, I understand, is not a question of getting from 60 to 90. Apparently the enrichment process has a logarithmic kind of quality to it. So that 60 is right next to 90. So if you can get to 60, then getting to 90 might take three weeks. That's my understanding, but I could be wrong about that, but I think that's right.
So has anybody heard Iran give any kind of public explanation of why they would need to increase their enrichment to the point where there's only one reason that I know of, which is to be ready to make a nuclear weapon? Now you add that to the fact that they've been funding proxies to try to destroy Israel for a long time, and they've done a number of terrorist acts against Americans in the area over the years. And then on top of that, they have this chant about death to Israel and death to America.
Now I would agree that if the only problem was their chanting, I would not be so worried. But if you combine death to America, death to Israel with building an enrichment capacity which only has one purpose, and a history of funding proxies to attack Israel, that looks pretty aggressive to me. That looks like more than a chant.
So I went online and said a few things about the Israel situation and what I found was that if you say anything that people disagree with on this topic, you will be called anti-Semitic. So I got called anti-Semitic for I think just asking some question online and somebody said, "Whoa, why would you do that? Why would you even question that unless you're anti-Semitic?" To which I say, oh you. Just you. I'm not anti-Semitic. If I have questions about why we're doing what we're doing and how we're doing it, that has nothing to do with any kind of anti-Semitism. These are three countries that are in this situation. And if I talk about it, it's because I'm trying to understand it or predict it. There's no deeper meaning.
And then there are the people who say that essentially Israel and Iran are sort of morally and ethically similar. Now that's the mode I don't want to get into because once you get into the moral ethical part, you just have to take a side and I don't want to do that. But I would point out that it seems very unlikely if Iran decided to be totally peaceful and not make any threats or any threatening moves toward its neighbors, it seems deeply unlikely that Israel would attack them. Wouldn't you say? But would that be the same if Israel decided to be totally peaceful? Would they be attacked by Iran or Iranian proxies? Well it doesn't look like those are the same to me. To me it looks like Iran has a long-term goal to erase Israel, at least as a country, off the map. I don't see that Israel has any kind of goal like that as far as I know. They would love to probably have some kind of regime change that loved Israel, but what are the odds of that? Pretty low. So any comparison of the two seems out of place to me.
Meanwhile, the National Review, the conservative publication in this country, is attacking what they call skeptics of the Iraq war, and they've got a new updated article calling them unpatriotic conservatives. Oh, that's what they called the people who were against the Iraq war, but now they're using it to go against the people who are against the attack of Iran. So it makes you wonder what is the National Review? Is the job of the National Review news or opinion or do they work for the military-industrial complex and it's just their way of influencing the country? It makes me wonder what exactly is the National Review.
Well, as you know Trump has said that he's going to give Iran a couple of weeks. Before I get to that, there are two stories about two weeks. The first story about two weeks is that Israel said they thought that they would be done with their war in two weeks. Now when people like me talk about international geopolitical stuff, the first thing you probably say to yourself is, what the hell does he know about geopolitical anything? Does he even know the population of Iran? Yes, I do. 92 million. But wouldn't you imagine that my opinion about the Israel-Iran situation should be kind of worthless because I have no experience in that domain, no special knowledge. I haven't been there. So wouldn't you just sort of automatically assume that I would be wrong about everything unless I just got lucky?
Well let's keep track because I have made some specific public predictions. One of my predictions is that there was no way that Israel would be done in two weeks. How am I doing so far? Well if Trump's two weeks, and he says that's a maximum. So there's some chance that Trump will act before the two weeks is over, but I think that's low. It'll at least be three weeks. But on top of that there is a military commander who says that difficult days still lie ahead and that Israel must be ready for a prolonged campaign. So that's coming from Israel. So Israel it looks like has already abandoned their two-week estimate.
So did you see anybody else say that the two weeks would probably be, I didn't. I did not see one expert say, I don't think this will be done in two weeks. It might take months. Only me. Now did I use my geopolitical expertise? No. I used the Dilbert filter. The Dilbert filter works whenever there's any big complicated human endeavor. And nobody ever got anything done in two weeks. Two weeks for a war. Come on. Who ever believed that that was going to get done in two weeks?
So here's an example where I don't have any geopolitical experience whatsoever, but that kind of stood out as a glaring obvious point that you could question. How many of you said the same thing? Said, all right, there's no way this is going to be done in two weeks. Because nothing is ever done in two weeks. No matter how sure you are that it can be, it just never is. So I got that one right.
Anyway, so Trump says he's going to give Iran a couple of weeks. Some say that's mostly so he can move some more assets into place, like naval assets, etc., in case we need to go hard. Apparently there's reports that several B-2 stealth bombers have already taken off. And they're going from Missouri to Guam. Now presumably that would get them closer to the theater that they might be used in. And this would be an indication that Trump has either decided he's going to attack or wants Iran to think that that's a strong possibility.
And some say that the two weeks that Trump is giving is just to see if anything changes in a favorable way. So for example if Israel had some unexpectedly big successes in the next two weeks that change the equation. Well then you're going to be glad that Trump waited because maybe we don't have to attack. So what could happen in those two weeks besides getting more military assets in place? Some people say that Iran might abandon its nuclear program. I don't think that's going to happen. So expecting them to tell the Europeans we don't want to talk to America or Israel but we'd be happy to abandon our enrichment program. That's not going to happen. I don't see Iran bending to the will of the West.
So we've got this two-week period and Trump in his usual way says it's a maximum so that it keeps them guessing. They won't get too comfortable for two weeks because maybe just maybe something will happen faster.
Now the big question is should the United States be involved in taking out the Fordow and maybe one other underground bunker facility under the belief that only America has the weapons that can do that and that would be the bunker busters that they say would have to be doubled up. So you would have to use one to make a big hole and then drop another one in the same hole to get deeper. And the American weapon makers and the military-industrial complex is telling us via the news, oh this will definitely work.
Now there's a question of whether we should do it, but the people who make the weapons and talk about the weapons and know the most about the weapons, which is not me, right? So again here here's another situation where I do not have any knowledge of the military-industrial complex. I do not know anything about bunker busters or anything about these B-2 stealth bombers. So coming from no knowledge whatsoever and being in the same conversation with people who are geopolitical military experts, let me put the Dilbert filter on this. Nobody knows if those bombs will work. Are you kidding me?
Let me take you to the real world for a moment. They've never tested dropping two bunker busters in the same hole. They do not know exactly what is inside that Fordow mountain and just exactly how things are protected in there. They might know a lot, but they don't know everything. When was the last time you saw somebody do this complicated thing that had never been done before and it worked out perfectly and they knew it in advance? That's not a function of the real world. In the real world you'd be really lucky if you got this to work on the first try. And I don't know if there'll be more than one try.
So the first thing I'm going to say without being any kind of a military expert is that probably everybody lies about how powerful their weapons are. Were you ever surprised when you heard that the Iron Dome or some version of the Iron Dome was not stopping all the missiles and somebody probably told you, oh yeah the anti-missile defense is going to get 98% of the missiles and then it turns out maybe it gets 90%. But 10% is a lot of missiles to let through. So I would say that whenever you hear somebody say that a weapon system will definitely work, really in the real world you've never used it in this way and but you're sure it's going to work.
All right. So we're not sure it's going to work and you should not imagine that anybody knows that with certainty whether it'll work. Now I don't know the odds. If you said well what are the odds that it doesn't work? I don't know. But nobody else knows either. The only thing I know for sure is it's not a definite. If it were definite, that might change the equation a little bit, but it's not. It's not definite.
And just to make things interesting, Netanyahu has said publicly that Israel can take care of the Iranian nuclear program without America's help if they have to. Now are you all aware of that? I'll take a fact check on that if I'm wrong, but correct me if I'm wrong. Netanyahu has recently publicly said that they don't need America's involvement. They could take care of it in a different way. They don't have these bunker busters, but there might be some way to do something on the ground or with special forces or something. Now would that put Israel in a position of taking losses? Yes of course. That's what military conflicts do. They put you in a position where people could be killed on your side.
But that does settle the question in my mind of whether Trump should authorize the B-2 bombers to drop the bunker busters. And the answer is no. If Israel says that they can handle it without us, why would we even consider it? Now you would consider it if our involvement made it a guarantee that it would work and Israel couldn't do it by itself, but that's not the case. Our bunker busters are anything but guaranteed. And Israel says they can do it. Why wouldn't we at least wait two weeks to see if they can do it?
Is it possible that Trump's two weeks is really waiting to see if Israel can make a dent at Fordow with some kind of different strategy? And you could imagine, I won't mention any that I could think of because I'm not smart enough, but there might be some way to get a hold of whoever it is who has the lock to open the front door. Don't you think there's probably more than one person in the world who knows how to open that door? Is it a combination lock? Is it a multi-step process where the people inside the facility have to be the ones to unlock it from the inside? Is that how it works? I'm just speculating. But don't you think there's some chance that Israel could get a hold of whoever has the key or the combination or the secret digital way to open that thing. Maybe there's just a way to open the front door that we don't know about. Maybe Israel knows more about that because they're pretty deeply into the pants of the Iranian everything. Maybe they know.
But anyway, so the alternative to Israel doing it themselves and believing that they can do it themselves is that Israel went into the war knowing that they could not succeed without American involvement in the war. Now that would be much worse, wouldn't you think? And when I asked that question online on X, I said, when did Israel know that they couldn't do this alone? Now of course they say that they can do it alone. So that would be new information from when I asked the question.
So isn't it way worse if Israel tried to trick the United States into getting involved by getting us a little bit pregnant than saying well we got to this point but the only way we can finish it is by getting America involved directly, more directly in the war? So I would say this made the decision for Trump kind of easy because if Israel says they can do it and then he authorizes the United States to be involved in the war and then Iran attacks our homeland, turns off our lights with cyber attacks and starts killing people in bases in the Middle East, Americans, that's going to look like a failure, right? So that would be somewhat of an unforgivable mistake. But more than that, it would be an admission that Israel is wagging Trump's tail. Meaning that it would suggest that the only way we got into this situation is that Israel knew that if they started the war, they could drag us in to finish it off.
Now I don't want to believe that about Netanyahu. So I'm going to take him at his word that I believe he said, and I'll take your fact check if I'm wrong about this, but if they think they have a way to do it, even if they don't know that it will work, they have to try that first. So to me the decision is already made. It's really hard for me to imagine that Trump would allow a situation where history would say Netanyahu tricked him into a war. Just think about Trump's personality. Think about his decades of being anti-war. And then think about the prospect of being treated by history as though you got tricked into a war by your own ally. There's no way he's going to allow that situation.
So as long as Netanyahu has said publicly we could probably take care of this ourselves, he has to let them. And I would say that any other decision would look like a mistake and history would judge him harshly for it. Now what would happen if Israel tried and they lost some troops and they did not succeed and then they gave up? Well then that's a separate decision. From that point you can say all right, new information. It turns out that Israel can't do it alone because they tried. But I'll tell you the one thing that we're not going to be able to live with. We're not going to be able to live with Netanyahu saying he can do it and not letting him see if he can. There's no way we're going to live with that. And there's no way that Trump's legacy could survive getting involved when it doesn't seem necessary according to Israel and they would know more about the situation than we would.
So I'm sure I will be called anti-Semitic for taking Netanyahu at his word that he can do this. But if I have that wrong, if I've misinterpreted what he said, let me know because that would change my opinion a little bit.
All right. Matt Gaetz floated a plan. Now I don't think this one has any chance of happening, but it's interesting nonetheless. So he suggests that both Iran and Israel give up their secret nuclear weapon programs. Now I don't think there's any chance that Israel is going to give up its secret nuclear weapon triad because it's probably pretty advanced and it would be insane to give it up, I guess. But it does make you wonder, is that one of the possibilities? What would Iran say if Israel offered to legitimately get rid of its nuclear program? Would Iran say, oh well I never thought that would happen. All right. If you're going to do it, we can do it too. Would they? I don't think that that topic can even be broached because even if Israel put it out there as a suggested idea, it would be an acknowledgement that they have the secret nuclear triad that we all assume that they have. So I don't think there's any way that could work, but it does make you wonder. Does make you think.
Anyway, Tulsi Gabbard is of course under attack by the people who say that she disagrees with Trump and Trump said that she was wrong if she said that Iran couldn't make a bomb. So I think my first take on this early on in the drama was right that when Tulsi Gabbard was talking about Iran, she was talking about a decision to make a bomb and she said that the intelligence people in the United States have not detected that the Ayatollah has decided to make a nuclear weapon. Whereas when Trump talks about it, he talks about the ability to make a nuclear weapon. So if they walk right up to the threshold and they are enriching uranium to the point where there's no other legitimate reason to do it other than your intention to make a weapon, well that would put Trump in the position of saying it almost doesn't matter what anybody has decided. If they've walked up to the line where they can do it in three weeks, you have to treat it like they're doing it. It's the same.
So I don't see any difference between what Tulsi Gabbard said and what Trump says. To me they look like they're completely compatible. They both would agree that Iran could do it fairly quickly. So they're agreed on that. And I don't think Trump has said that the Ayatollah has been detected as ordering it to be done. He's not saying that. He's just being a common sense person who says if they say death to America and they've been funding proxies and they go right up to the threshold, what else would they have in mind? You'd have to treat that like their intention is obvious. So even if you don't know their intention and you can't read their mind, Trump is right. You'd have to treat it as though you could read their mind and they do have the intention even if you don't know for sure.
Anyway, here's a correction that I got a story completely wrong and Glenn Greenwald is correcting people like me. The story was that the Washington Post has a reporter. He used to work for Al Jazeera, which is part of the smearing of his reputation. He used to work for Al Jazeera, but now he's on the Washington Post. And when he reports about the missile damage in Israel, he was giving actual coordinates, like GPS coordinates of where the damage was. And Bill Ackman and a number of other people and including me in my podcast were saying, why would you do that? Like what possible reason would you want Iran to have the GPS coordinates of the missile attack? Unless you were hoping they could improve their aim, because if you tell them where they landed, maybe they can adjust their process somehow.
Now that made sense to me when I said it, but let me tell you how stupid that was. All right, so here's a case where if I knew more, I would have done a better job. As Glenn Greenwald points out, here's the most important part of the story. I'm laughing at myself for what an idiot I am because this is really dumb. Where do you think the reporter got the GPS coordinates for the missile damage? Do you think he was over there? No, he's not over there. He's in the United States. So how did he get the missile coordinates of where the bombs hit? It's public. It's public. So Iran would obviously already know what this reporter knows because it's public. So he used a public source for the GPS coordinates which Iran has full access to. And if that's not enough for you, apparently the same reporter has been doing the same thing, reporting the GPS coordinates for prior wars. I think at least two prior wars. And the reason he does it is so that if you wanted to check basically it would allow you to have a way to check to see if the reporting is accurate. He gives us the GPS coordinates. So if somebody looked at it from let's say a satellite and they saw that that building was intact, they could say the reporting was wrong. So it's basically a way to let other people check his work.
So I would like to apologize for getting that story absolutely wrong. Just absolutely ass backwards. And the journalist is Evan Hill. So I will apologize to him directly. So Evan, sorry about that. I got taken by that hoax.
Anyway, this is why you want to listen to Greenwald. He always has the better take on stuff.
Apparently the Trump administration is making some big changes to Obamacare and they're ending coverage for Dreamers. So the Dreamers would be the children who are brought in by their parents and have grown up as Americans but they're not technically legal. So apparently they're going to lose their Obamacare coverage. And my question is this. Do you think that the Trump administration is using the cover of the Israel-Iran war to get away with some things that otherwise it would be too much public pushback for? Because this is in the area that a reasonable person could disagree because you're talking about people who did not make any decision to come here. They were brought here by their parents and they would be losing healthcare. Now there's an argument on both sides. I get it. I get it. You don't have to argue with me. I see the argument. But do you think Trump could get away with this without there being some big international story that dominates? I feel like the Stephen Millers have a little more flexibility because we're distracted by other things that seem like a bigger deal to us. So that's my only comment on that. I wonder if distraction is making a difference.
Well, Bill Maher had Wesley Hunt on who's a representative and Wesley Hunt did an unusually good job of slapping down Bill Maher's TDS. So the first thing that happened was Bill Maher was talking about Trump's military parade. And he mentioned that it was a fascist parade and Wesley Hunt said this. You know what I saw? This is what Hunt said. I saw the president salute the Corps of Cadets as they walked past him. I watched them salute the 75th Ranger Regiment. I watched the fireworks behind the Washington Monument. And you know what I thought? Damn, that's absolutely outstanding. And it's far better than Joe Biden checking his watch when bodies were being returned to Dover. And then he reminds us that he was in the military. He was an Apache pilot and he joined the military in part because of that type of patriotic treatment of the military.
Now that's a pretty darn good answer to it's a fascist military. And then the person who actually served, talking to Bill Maher who did not serve in the military, says no it wasn't fascist. It's the reason I joined the military. That is a really good answer.
Now but he had another chance to slap down Bill Maher because Bill Maher referred to January 6 as an insurrection and as his proof Bill Maher said it's not a coincidence that they were protesting at the exact time the votes were being, I think he said counted, but maybe certified was a better word.
Now Wesley Hunt said, how do you have an insurrection with no guns? There you go. How do you have an insurrection with no guns? Why did it take this long for somebody to say that on Bill Maher's show? How many times has Bill Maher referred to January 6 as an insurrection? And it took all the way to now for Wesley Hunt to say, how do you have an insurrection with no guns? He went on saying that's like making coffee with no beans. One person was killed that day. It was Ashli Babbitt. She was a white unarmed woman killed by a black Capitol police officer. Imagine if that had been the other way around. Ouch. Oh you're good, Wesley Hunt.
And then Maher tried to argue it but Wesley pointed out that the summer of love was way more dangerous and more people died and it was way worse. I would have added one thing. So that was a good comeback. But I would add this. Bill Maher does not understand what the protesters were thinking when they protested. If what they were thinking was I know we lost this election but we're going to try to take over the country and install our beloved Trump, if that's what they were thinking then that was an insurrection. Even without the guns that would be an insurrection. But they weren't. I'll bet you couldn't find even one person out of the thousands of people, I'll bet you wouldn't find one who said I knew Trump lost but I wanted him to be president anyway. I'll bet not one.
So the entire argument that January 6 was an insurrection depends entirely on the mental state of the protesters. If what they believed is that the election itself was obviously corrupt because of the weird oddities of that election, the sudden surge of Biden, the unusual number of votes he got compared to Obama and compared to other years, and then the bellwether districts, I think 13 or 14 went the wrong way. You know they're normally the most predictive thing in our elections and they all predicted that Trump won and he still lost. So if you ask those people I'm pretty sure they would say we think that the election didn't look like it was necessarily fair and we wanted them to pause just to look into it a little bit, just to make sure that the right person won. How in the world does Bill Maher who talks about politics for a living not realize that he's never heard from anybody who was involved in the protest and that that's the only thing that matters? What were they thinking? And were they thinking that they were taking over the country and they left their guns home? Is that what they were thinking?
So I think Wesley Hunt he was 60% of the way there with nobody goes to an insurrection without guns but the other 40% that's a kill shot and nobody's taken a kill shot yet. It's going to happen but nobody's done it yet.
New York Post is reporting that CNN is collapsing. Two of their executives just resigned. Vice president of domestic news and VP of digital video and they'd both been there a long time and I guess there are big cost cuttings coming and Anderson Cooper gets paid $18 million a year. I've got a feeling that there might be a change coming to Anderson Cooper's compensation package but we'll see.
According to a post I saw by Mario Nawfal, who you should follow on X, he has great news summaries. He saw this in recent cybersecurity research. So he has a source. Apparently 500 research papers have been written in China about how to crash the power grid in America. So 367 Chinese papers targeting the US grids and 166 on European systems and they talked about how to create cascading failures and systemic collapse. So if you're wondering is China wondering how to collapse our entire power network? The answer is yes. They're putting a lot of effort into understanding what would work.
Now the fact that there are so many different papers sort of suggests that maybe there's not one obvious way to do it, which maybe gives me a little weird comfort. If they have to do that much thinking about it, maybe it's not easy. Maybe they can't just turn a switch, which we imagine they could do. But the papers detail malicious data injection attacks. Yikes.
What would keep China from attacking our grid? Well I think as long as we don't attack their grid or attack them it's unlikely they're going to attack us in that way because why would they? But as a defensive move China quite wisely has a pretty good backup plan. And I have to admit it, I feel safer if China feels they can take down our electric grid than I would if the only tool they had was a nuclear weapon. Because taking down the power grid would kill a lot of people and it would be massively disruptive and horrible. But nuclear war would be worse. So maybe it's good that they have some kind of halfway thing that they can do. Obviously I'm sure America has looked into the same question for their grid.
Well the Post Millennial is reporting that Representative Jerry Nadler is accusing ICE agents of hiding misbehavior by wearing masks. Now apparently the Democrats have decided on another 80/20 issue. How many people in the United States think that they want the ICE agents to reveal their identity to the gangs, MS-13 and Tren de Aragua? How many people think that's a good idea? Now I understand that regular cops on the street don't wear masks and I'm happy about that. But apparently according to Breitbart there's a recent analysis and the Department of Homeland Security sees a 500% increase in assaults on ICE employees. 500% increase in assaults. So if you were working in a job where there was a 500% increase in assaults and the Democrats were saying hey take off those masks so we can assault you even better. That can't be popular, is it? Is it? Isn't that another 80/20 where 80% of the country would say oh yeah if they need to protect themselves they have to do what they have to do? Or do you think people agree with that that ICE should take off their masks so the gangs can figure out who they are? I don't know. I think I would let them keep the masks in this environment.
All right, ladies and gentlemen, that's all I got for you today. There will not be a spaces after today's show. That will be tomorrow, Sunday. So I'll tell you about that tomorrow. And I'm going to say a few words privately to the local subscribers, beloved local subscribers. And hope you'll come back tomorrow. Same time, same place.
All right, Locals. We're going to go private in 30 seconds.
And happy Saturday everybody.
We've got a podcast for you like you've never seen before.
Borrowing uh Trump's sayings.
Nobody's ever seen anything like it.
It would be the best thing ever in the entire world.
Probably.
Good morning everybody and welcome to the highlight of human civilization.
It's called Coffee with Scott Adams and you've never had a better time.
But if you'd like to try, and I say try to take it up to levels that nobody can even understand with their tiny shiny human brains.
All you need for that is a copper micro glass tanker Charles, a canteen joker flask, a vessel of any kind.
Fill it with your favorite liquid.
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And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine day of the day.
The thing that makes everything better.
It's called the simultaneous sip and it happens now.
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Oh, that's good.
There's only one thing that could make it better.
Mr.
Trump, would you like a sip?
We are going to drain the swamp in Washington DC.
Go.
There he is.
draining the swamp.
All right, so there's some fun science coming up.
Oh, by the way, um although today is Saturday, there will not be a spaces event um after the show.
That will be tomorrow.
So tomorrow on Sunday, Owen Gregorian will have his spaces event after the show.
Well, according to the ex account, uh, creme, if I'm pronouncing that correctly, and I'm not.
Uh, apparently there's a good chance that type 1 diabetes has been cured.
I don't know, maybe type 1 diabetes.
So apparently um over the last year there was a test where 12 diabetics were injected with a stem cell derived pancreatic islets and I was going to say have they never tried injecting stem cell derived pancreatic islets before but they did now they tried it and uh apparently people started producing insulin again.
And 10 out of 12 participants after one year no longer needed to inject insulin.
Whoa.
How about that?
Imagine that.
Imagine that you were alive, could be, maybe, not for sure, when type 1 diabetes was cured.
Wouldn't that be awesome?
In other news, uh there's a what's being called a groundbreaking study uh that says eating one avocado a day could help you sleep better with all of the health benefits of extra sleep.
Um let's see who did the study.
Oh, uh it's according to the HOS avocado board.
So, it's being reported by the Hos avocado people that eating one avocado a day can help you sleep better.
Well, I eat one avocado a day and I do sleep pretty well.
So, I call that science.
Um, I don't know who funded that study, but uh I'm not I'm not sure the hos avocado people are the the ones to believe.
Um, here's another science thing.
We'll talk about Iran, of course.
Um, apparently according to the American Society for Metabolic and Beriatric Surgery, the people who have the uh weight loss surgery, I guess that's the one where they talk to your stomach, um, they have a self-esteem improvement of 131%.
So, is there any way they could have saved some money in that study?
Hm.
H I wonder.
Um suppose they ask me, Scott, uh do you think that being in shape and eating right and going to the gym, um will that help your mental and physical health and your happiness and your chances of success?
Yes.
Yes.
There's never an exception.
Eating right and exercising absolutely will make you happier and healthier and more successful.
Guarantee it.
So next time just ask me.
I'm here.
Just ask.
Um apparently uh President Trump is uh going back and forth on his his ideas about deporting farm workers.
because he's quite aware that if he departs all the uh the noncitizen farm workers, we will starve to death because it might take a while to replace them with American workers, if we even can.
And but here here's my favorite part about this story.
Um, remember how I always tell you that Trump is he finds it impossible to be boring?
Everything he says has that that little bit of edge to it that makes you read it twice.
And he did it again with the the farm worker deportation.
So, here's a Trump quote.
Quote, "I never want to hurt our farmers.
Our farmers are great people.
They keep us happy, healthy, and fat.
Trump is the only person uh well the only president who would throw fat into the end of that sentence.
They keep us happy and healthy and fat.
I can't tell you how many times I reread the sentence.
And that's what Trump does to you.
He just makes you reread the sentence, you know, five times and laugh every time.
Why would you even do that?
He's the only person who can make that sentence interesting.
Well, speaking of Trump, as you know, um the Trump family has has announced that they plan to go into the mobile phone business.
Um, and they actually plan to make the smartphone in the United States.
Now, the people who know how to make smartphones are very insistent that that's not possible.
That it would take, I don't know, years and years to figure out how to train Americans to make phones and how to get all the infrastructure and technology here and factories.
But uh so far the uh I think Don Jr.
has said that he plans to make it in the United States.
So do they know something that we don't know?
Is there a secret plan where they can take a I don't know a Taiwanese or Chinese company and just move it over here and make those phones in America or as some some are suggesting this is not a real business that it might be more for PR or something I don't know but it doesn't seem to me that Don Jr.
would be involved in a totally makebelieve business.
He must have some kind of plan to make these phones in the United States, but we don't know what that is.
So maybe we'll be surprised.
Well, uh, AI is our David Saxs, um, is very pro AI, as you might imagine, and he says that AI will be bigger than the i.
Phone, bigger than the internet, and it's going to fuel the growth of the American economy for years to come and would be one of the most important parts of Trump's legacy.
Now, uh, Saxs also said separately on a post.x X that AI might be adding jobs um and not subtracting.
Now, of course, that would be a controversial opinion because for sure there are jobs that will go away, but also for sure there will be jobs that will be created.
For example, um over on Tik Tok, there are a whole bunch of people using AI to get rich making viral videos that are actually quite entertaining.
I like the ones of the uh the cute little kittens who work at Mc.
Donald's.
If you haven't seen that one, it's pretty awesome.
Or the uh the cats were doing Olympic diving off a diving board.
So, the AI is pretty good now.
Pretty good.
Now, those are special cases.
You know, it's not like we're all going to be making AI content, but I do think that Sachs might be closer to accurate.
When he says that AI might add jobs, they'll just be completely different jobs than we've ever had.
or they'll be the same job, but one person can do a much better job of it perhaps.
So, you got that going on.
Um, I heard also some other famous investor say that the the big investment for the future is AI and if you're not invested in AI, um you're going to feel bad about it.
So uh I don't give uh investment advice but you should know that some investors are saying that AI is the place to the place to be.
Well, more to that point, um, the CEO of OpenAI, Sam Alman, um, he did a podcast, I think with his brother, and he mentioned that, uh, Meta is offering a$100 million bonus for the top Open AI employees to leave OpenAI and go work for Meta.
$100 million just a bonus.
So that's not even counting their their pay.
That's just a bonus.
Does that sound real?
It doesn't really sound real to me, but I don't think he'd make it up.
It'd be a weird thing to make up.
So, I don't know.
I have some trouble believing that uh that's true.
It might be true of, you know, three people in the world, you know, the the smartest AI people.
Maybe they are worth 100 million.
I don't know.
But, uh, I've decided to, uh, quit my job as a cartoonist and become a AI specialist.
Try to get that $100 million bonus.
I'll let you know how that goes.
In other AI news, according to neuroscience news, uh researchers have figured out how to get AI to um be more empathetic and work on your emotions.
So, they can tailor emotional analogies to each user's personality and life experience.
So, notice how they use analogies.
They use analogies to get empathy and to work on your emotions.
And boy, that's dangerous.
It might be, you know, it's inevitable.
The AI will learn to manipulate the emotions of humans.
You know, there's no way to stop that from happening.
But, uh, here it is.
And I guess the big takeaway is that you can't use the same analogy for every person.
You have to have the analogy tailored for their personality.
But once you do that, you can manipulate their feelings.
And once AI can manipulate our feelings, who will be in charge?
Well, AI.
Because once AI can give you better information than you had, but then can also manipulate you with analogies and stories and anecdotes.
Well, then it pretty much is going to run everything.
So, that's coming.
Um, and also according to the Verge, Sarah Parker is writing about this.
Apparently, people use chat GPT a lot, their vocabulary starts to change.
And this one is fun.
This is this one I did not see coming.
Apparently, even though um AI is based on actual human conversations and interactions, there are different vocabulary words that come up more in AI than they come up in normal conversation.
So, apparently words like delve are are words that AI would use more likely than you would.
When was the last time you used the word delve as in we're going to delve into that?
I I was wondering I was thinking I don't know if I've ever used that word in conversation.
I've read it.
I've heard people say it, but I don't know if I've ever used it even once.
you know, I I would say let's dig into it or, you know, let's do a deeper dive, but I don't think I maybe I've never used that word, but apparently people use AI and chat GPT in particular.
They'll they'll start saying words like uh uh let's see, prowess and tapestry.
I guess those come up a lot in Chad GPT.
and they're less likely to use words like bolster, unearth, and nuance because chap doesn't use them as much.
So, here's the hypnotist take on the story.
As a hypnotist, I can tell you that the choice of words can influence what you think about the topic.
So it's not a you know just a mere curiosity that people use AI use different vocabulary that specific vocabulary is very likely to to change how you think about the topic and you wouldn't know why.
So that's the hypnotist take.
The specific choice of words that you associate with a topic very much will influence your overall opinion of the topic.
And if you were to just force somebody to use a different vocabulary and in this case you know how to force them it's happening naturally they would think differently about the topic depending on the topic.
So now AI can influence us by which vocabulary we use, but it can also influence us by being very useful.
So we rely on it for facts, even if they're wrong.
And apparently it can also influence us with analogies and emotion and empathy.
So if you were wondering, is AI going to start being in control of humans?
Yeah.
Yeah.
No doubt about it.
There there isn't the slightest chance that AI will not be influencing what you think about stuff.
Now the interesting thing is will this cause any kind of uh unity?
So right now the country is divided you know by politics.
What would happen if AI all the AIs start converging on the same explanation of things and use the same analogies and have similar vocabulary?
Is it possible that our diverse opinions will merge into one opinion that coincidentally or not is exactly what AI would tell you is true?
That might happen.
So, one possibility is AI manipulates us and turns us into mindless puppets and we don't know it.
Uh, the other possibility is it allows us to stop fighting with each other because we can all just look at AI and go, "Oh, all right.
I guess that's the partake." And then we just agree with it.
So, could be good.
Never know.
Um, according to uh Trump, the US has arranged a treaty, some kind of a peace treaty between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Republic of Rwanda.
Now, raise your hand if you knew that the Republic of Congo and Republic of Rwanda were in some kind of a war.
H I have to admit that although I do know the number of people who live in Iran, 92 million, I did not know anything about the Republic of Condo or Rwanda.
However, according to the post millennial, um Trump is uh is bragging that the US got that done and if we did, good job.
Marco Rubio and looks like they may have been instrumental in that.
Uh but Trump being Trump and as I already noted, it's impossible for him to say something that's boring.
Instead of just saying, "Hey, good news.
We've got this peace deal.
We've got this new peace deal that was really necessary." Instead of doing that, he announces it.
And at the same time, in the same message, he complains that he probably won't get a Nobel Peace Prize for his work with India and Pakistan, his work with Serbia and Kosovo.
I don't even know what that was.
Egypt and Ethiopia.
Again, I have no idea what that was about.
Does anybody know what Trump did to make things better between Egypt and Ethiopia?
I do not.
And then he also mentions the Abraham Accords as all the things he's done for peace and uh but he won't get a Nobel Peace Prize because that only goes to liberals, he says.
And he says that even if he were to end the war in Ukraine and uh get a good result in Iran, even if he could do that, he says he'll never get the Nobel Peace Prize.
Now, do you recognize what form of uh persuasion he's using?
This is not random.
This is really good persuasion because he keeps saying that he won't get the Nobel Peace Prize.
What do I teach you about negatives?
This is another hypnotist trick.
Um, the hypnotist trick is that the more you make people think Nobel Peace Prize and peace prize for this.
I won't get the Nobel Peace Prize for this.
And your brain doesn't hear the won't.
It it sort of forgets it right away.
And all you can think of is Trump and Nobel Peace Prize.
So, it's actually a super clever way of increasing the odds that he gets a Nobel Peace Prize, which to me is hilarious.
It's hilarious that he's working on it, like he actually is trying to get one.
I kind of I kind of love that.
All right.
Well, as you know, the news is never complete without some stories about Elon Musk.
Today is no exception.
And apparently uh Elon Musk scolded Grock, his own his own AI uh because Grock said that used sources Media Matters and Rolling Stone to uh dispute something said by ex user Cat Turd 2.
And apparently uh and so Musk responded to Grock on the Xplatform like he was talking to a person and he said to Grock, "Your sourcing is terrible.
Only a very dumb AI would believe media banners and Rolling Stone.
You were being updated this week." So, so Musk is having a conversation with his own AI and scolding it and saying that it's using bad sources and he's going to fix it.
Now, that's funny.
Well, speaking of Elon Musk, apparently Tesla, according to CNBC, is just signed a deal with China to build their largest gridscale battery power plant.
Um, now I think the the batteries are also made in China, but uh the it's a yeah, they've got a battery factory in Shanghai and it's made over a 100 megaps in the first quarter.
So what this is about is a way to make your network more efficient because you can store the uh cheaply cheaply generated electricity in your batteries and then release them as you need them and uh China will be first.
Now, I don't make um I don't give financial advice, but if you knew that Tesla just signed a enormous deal to create a gridcale battery power plants in China and they're planning to do it for other countries as well.
Isn't that one of the biggest businesses in the world?
I mean it's starting you know it's starting with one but wouldn't every every power grid want this so what is what is exactly the size of this financial opportunity it looks like it's bigger than cars I mean uh literally every country and every grid would probably get some benefit from having a battery you know a battery uh power land.
Anyway, um according to Politico and uh Carrie Lake was announcing this as her in her role as a a advisor to President Trump.
Apparently, a majority of the staff of Voice of America is getting released, terminated.
And uh what is uh senior presidential advisor Carrie Lake said, "Today we took decisive actions to effectuate." Effectuate.
There's a word that I don't use.
Effectuate.
When was the last time you used effectuate in a sentence?
Um I would say I've never used it once.
Uh, this is the first time I've ever said that word out loud.
Effectuate.
Um, the Trump agenda to shrink the control federal bureaucracy.
So, we'll see if that sticks.
Eliminating 1,400 jobs and 85% cut to the workforce there.
Good job.
All right.
As I've said before, um, pundit and humorist comic Dave Smith has, uh, very, let's say, effectively and impressively worked his way into the conversation about the biggest topics in America, in this case, the Israel Iran conflict.
And I'm very impressed because, you know, it'd be one thing if you were a famous geopolitical expert, but to become one of the central people in the conversation coming out of the humor field, you know, the the podcast punditry world, you really have to be doing something well.
And even if you disagree with him, and I'm gonna disagree with him a little bit today, even if you disagree, I really like what he adds to the conversation because he does sort of force people to debate him.
And, you know, you can judge for yourself who's got the better opinion, but uh I like where he takes the conversations.
But he had a uh a post that actually got millions of uh views and I will read it to you.
His post was, "Okay, fine.
Iran doesn't have nukes, but have you heard their chance?
We must go to war to stop these chants." Now, that's a pretty good humorist take, but is there any more to this story?
Of course there is.
So, here's here's my take, and he may have he may have already answered this.
I don't know.
But I weighed in on that.
And I said in the comments, I haven't heard an innocent reason why Iran insists on threshold enrichment levels.
Threshold meaning right up to the point where you can make a nuclear weapon.
uh and there's no reason to be there at that level of enrichment.
There there's not a civilian use for it.
The only use for it is if you want to be poised to very quickly make a nuclear weapon.
Now, that's as far as I know.
There may be some expert who says, "But Scott, you idiot.
Don't you know that getting to 60% enrichment is just, you know, useful for this or that?" Well, I don't know.
I haven't heard that.
I I've not heard that argument.
Now, the other thing you need to know is that getting from 60% to 90%, which is where you need to be for a bomb, I understand, is not a question of getting from 60 to 90.
Apparently, the uh enrichment process has a logarithmic kind of quality to it.
So that 60 is right next to 90.
So if you can get to 60, then getting to 90 might take three weeks.
That's that's my understanding, but I you know, I could be wrong about that, but I think that's right.
So, has anybody heard Iran give any kind of public explanation of why they would need to increase their their enrichment to the point where there's only one reason that I know of, which is to be ready to make a nuclear weapon.
Now, you add that to the fact that they've been funding proxies to try to destroy, you know, Israel for a long time, and uh they've done a number of terrorist acts against Americans in the area over the years.
And then on top of that, they have this uh this chant about death to Israel and death to America.
Now, I would agree that if the only problem was their chanting, I would not be so worried.
But if you combine death to America, death to Israel with building a enrichment capacity, which only has one purpose, and a history of funding proxies to attack Israel, that looks pretty aggressive to me.
That that looks like more than a chant.
So, um I went online and said a few things about the Israel situation and what I found was that if you say anything that um people disagree with on this topic, you will be called anti-semitic.
So, I I got called anti-semitic for I think just asking some question online and somebody said, "Whoa, why would you do that?
Why would you even question that?
Unless you're anti-Semitic.
To which I say, "Oh, you.
Just you.
I'm not anti-semitic.
If I have questions about why we're doing what we're doing and how we're doing it, that has nothing to do with any kind of anti-semitism.
These are, you know, three countries that are in this situation.
And if I talk about it, it's because I'm trying to understand it or predict it.
There's no deeper no deeper meaning.
Um, and then there are the people who say that essentially Israel and Iran are sort of morally and ethically similar.
Now, that's the the mode I don't want to get into because once you get into the moral ethical part, you're you know, you just have to take a side and I don't want to do that.
But I would point out that it seems very unlikely if Iran decided to be totally, you know, peaceful and not make any threats or any threatening moves toward its neighbors, it seems deeply unlikely that Israel would attack them.
Wouldn't you say?
But would that be the same if Israel decided to be totally peaceful?
Would they be attacked by Iran or Iranian proxies?
Well, it doesn't look like those are the same to me.
To me, it looks like Iran has a long-term goal to erase Israel, at least as a country, uh, off the map.
I I don't see that Israel has any kind of goal like that as far as I know.
They would love to probably have some kind of regime change that loved Israel, but you know, what are the odds of that?
Pretty low.
So any uh comparison of the two seems out of place to me.
Uh meanwhile, the National Review, the conservative publication in this country, is attacking uh what they call skeptics of the Iraq war, and they've got a new uh updated article uh calling them unpatriotic conservatives.
Um, oh, that's what they called the people who were against the Iraq war, but now they're using it to to go against the people who are against the, you know, the attack of Iran.
So, it makes you wonder what is the National Review?
Is the job of the National Review news or opinion or do they work for the uh military-industrial complex and it's just their way of influencing the country?
It makes me wonder what exactly is the National Review.
Well, as you know, uh Trump has said that he's going to give uh well, before I get to that, there there are two stories about two weeks.
The first story about two weeks is that Israel said they thought that they would be done with their war in two weeks.
Now, when uh people like me talk about international geopolitical stuff, the first thing you probably say to yourself is, "What the hell does he know about geopolitical anything?
Does he even know the population of Iran?" Yes, I do.
92 million.
Um, but uh wouldn't you imagine that my opinion about the Israel Iran situation should be kind of worthless because I have no experience in that domain, you know, no special knowledge.
I haven't been there.
So, wouldn't you just sort of automatically assume that I would be wrong about everything unless I just got lucky?
Well, let's uh keep track because I have made some specific public uh predictions.
One of my predictions is that there was no way that Israel would be done in two weeks.
How am I doing so far?
Well, if uh Trump's two weeks is if they keep to Trump's two weeks, and he he says that's a maximum.
So, there's some there's some chance that Trump will act before the two weeks is over, but I think that's low.
It'll at least be 3 weeks.
But on top of that, um there is a uh military commander um who says that uh he said it's going to take longer.
He says uh difficult days still lie ahead and that Israel must be ready for a quote prolonged campaign.
So that that's coming from Israel.
So, Israel, it looks like, has already abandoned their two week estimate.
So, did you see anybody else um say that the two weeks were would probably be I didn't I did not see one expert say, "I don't think this will be done in two weeks.
It might take months." Only me.
Now, did I use my geopolitical expertise?
No.
I used the Dilbert filter.
The Dilbert filter works whenever there's any big complicated human endeavor.
And nobody ever got anything done in two weeks.
Two weeks for a war.
Come on.
Who Who ever believed that that was going to get done in two weeks?
So here's an example where I don't have any geopolitical, you know, uh, experience whatsoever, but that that kind of stood out as a glaring obvious point that you could question.
How many of you said the same thing?
Said, "All right, there's no way this is going to be done in two weeks." Because nothing is nothing is ever done in two weeks.
No matter no matter how sure you are that it can be, it just never is.
So, I got that one right.
Anyway, so Trump says he's going to give Iran a couple of weeks.
Um, some say that's mostly so he can move some more assets into place, like naval assets, etc., in case we need to go hard.
Apparently, there's reports that several B2 uh stealth bombers have already taken off.
Um, and they're going from Missouri to Guam.
Now, presumably that would get them closer to the theater that they might be used in.
And this would be an indication that Trump has either u decided he's going to attack or wants Iran to think that that's a strong possibility.
And um some say that the two weeks that Trump is giving is just to see if anything changes in a favorable way.
So, for example, if Israel had, let's say, some unexpectedly big successes in the next two weeks that change the equation.
Well, then you're going to be, you know, you're going to be glad that Trump waited because maybe we don't have to attack.
So, what could happen in those two weeks besides getting more military assets in place?
Um, some people say that Thran might abandon its uh nuclear program.
I don't think that's going to happen.
So, expecting them to tell the Europeans, you know, we don't want to talk to America or Israel, but we'd be happy to abandon our enrichment program.
That's not going to happen.
I don't see Iran bending to the will of the West.
Um, so we've got this twoe period and Trump in his usual way says it's a maximum so that it it keeps them guessing that they they they won't get too comfortable for two weeks because maybe just maybe something will happen faster.
Now the big question is should the United States be involved in taking out the Ford and maybe one other underground bunker facility?
uh under the belief that only America has the weapons that can do that and that would be the bunker busters that they say would have to be double hold.
So you would have to use one to make a big hole and then drop another one in the same hole to get deeper.
And the American weapon makers and the military-industrial complex is telling us via the news, oh, this will definitely work.
Now, there's a question of whether we should do it, but the people who make the weapons and talk about the weapons and know the most about the weapons, which is not me, right?
So again here here's another situation where I do not have any knowledge of militaryindustrial complex.
I do not know anything about bunker busters or anything about these uh B2 stealth bombers.
So coming from no knowledge whatsoever and being in the same conversation with people who are geopolitical military experts.
Let me put the Dilbert filter on this.
Nobody knows if those bombs will work.
Are you kidding me?
Let let me take you to the real world for a moment.
They've never tested dropping two bunker busters in the same hole.
They do not know exactly what is, you know, inside that Fordau mountain and just exactly how things are protected in there.
They might know a lot, but they don't know everything.
When was the last time you saw somebody do this a complicated thing that had never been done before and it worked out perfectly and they knew it in advance.
That's not a function of the real world.
In the real world, you'd be really lucky if you got this to work on the first try.
And I don't know if there'll be more than one try.
So, the first thing I'm going to say without being any kind of a military expert is that probably everybody lies about how powerful their weapons are.
Uh, were you ever surprised when you heard that the Iron Dome or or some version of the Iron Dome was not not stopping all the missiles and somebody probably told you, oh yeah, the anti-missile defense is going to get 98% of the missiles and then it turns out maybe it gets 90%.
But 10%'s a lot of missiles to let through.
So I would say that whenever you hear somebody say that a a weapon system will definitely work really in the real world.
In the real world you've never used it in this way and but you're sure it's going to work.
All right.
So we're not sure it's going to work and and you should not imagine that that anybody knows that with certainty whether it'll work.
Now, I don't know the odds.
If you said, "Well, what are the odds that it doesn't work?" I don't know.
But nobody else knows either.
The only thing I know for sure is it's not a definite.
If it were definite, that might change the equation a little bit, but it's not.
It's not definite.
And just to make things interesting, uh Netanyahu has said publicly that Israel can take care of the Iranian nuclear program without America's help if they have to.
Now, are you all aware of that?
I'll I'll take a fact check on that if I'm wrong, but correct me if I'm wrong.
Um Netanyahu has recently publicly said that they don't need America's involvement.
They could take care of it in a different way.
They don't have these bunker busters, but there might be some way to do something on the ground or, you know, with with special forces or something.
Now, would that put would that put Israel in a position of taking um losses?
Yes, of course.
That's what military conflicts do.
they put you in a position where where people could be killed on your side.
Um, but that does settle the question in my mind of whether Trump should um authorize the the B the B2 bombers to drop the bunker busters.
And the answer is no.
If if Israel says that they can handle it without us, why would we even consider it?
Now, you would consider it if our involvement made it a guarantee that it would work and Israel couldn't do it by itself, but that's not the case.
Our bunker busters are anything but guaranteed.
And Israel says they can do it.
Why wouldn't we at least wait two weeks to see if they can do it?
Is it possible that Trump's two weeks is really waiting to see if Israel can make a dent at Forau with some kind of different strategy?
Uh, and you could imagine I won't I won't mention any that I could think of because I'm not smart enough, but there might be some way to get a hold of whoever it is who has the the lock to open the front door.
Don't you think there's probably more than one person in the world who knows how to open that door?
Is it is it a combination lock?
Is it a multi-step process where the people inside the facility have to be the ones to unlock it from the inside?
Is that how it works?
I'm just speculating.
But don't you think there's some chance that Israel could get a hold of whoever has the key or the combination or the secret, you know, digital way to open that thing.
Maybe there's just a way to open the front door that that we don't know about.
Maybe Israel knows more about that because they're they're pretty deeply, you know, into the pants of the of the Iranian everything.
Maybe they know.
But anyway, so the alternative the alternative to Israel doing it themselves and believing that they can do it themselves is that Israel um went into the war knowing that they could not succeed without American involvement in the war.
Now that would be much worse, wouldn't you think?
And when I asked that question online on X, I said, "When did Israel know that they couldn't do this alone?" Now, of course, they say that they can do it alone.
So, that would be new information from when I asked the question.
So, isn't it way worse if Israel tried to trick the United States into getting involved by getting us a little bit pregnant than saying, "Well, we got to this point, but the only way we can finish it is by getting America involved directly, more directly in the war." So, I would say this made the decision for Trump kind of easy because if Israel says they can do it and then he authorizes the United States to be involved in the war and then Iran attacks our homeland, takes off our turns off our lights with cyber attacks and uh starts killing people in bases in the Middle East, Americans, that's going to look like a failure, right?
So, you know, that would be some somewhat of an unforgivable mistake.
But more than that, it would be an admission that Israel is wagging Trump's tail.
Meaning that it would suggest that the only way we got into this situation is that Israel knew that if they started the war, they could drag us in to finish it off.
Now, I don't want to believe that about Netanyahu.
So, I'm going to take him at his word that I believe he said, and I'll I'll take your fact check if I'm wrong about this, but if they think they have a way to do it, even if they don't know that it will work, they have to try that first.
So, to me, the decision is already made.
It it's really hard for me to imagine that Trump would allow a situation where history would say Netanyahu tricked him into a war.
Just just think about think about Trump's personality.
Think about his, you know, decades of being anti-war.
And then think about the prospect of being treated by history as though you got tricked into a war by your own ally.
There's no way he's going to allow that situation.
So, as long as Netanyahu has said publicly, we could probably take care of this ourselves, he has to let them.
And I would say that any other decision would look like a mistake and history would judge him harshly for it.
Now, what would happen if Israel tried and they lost some troops and they did not succeed and then they gave up?
Well, then that's a separate decision.
From that point, you can say, "All right, new information.
It turns out that Israel can't do it alone because they tried." But I'll tell you the one thing that we're not going to be able to live with.
We're not going to be able to live with Netanyahu saying he can do it and not letting him see if he can.
There there's no way we're going to live with that.
And there's no way that Trump's legacy could survive uh getting involved when it doesn't seem necessary according to Israel and they would know more about the situation that we would.
So, uh, I'm sure I will be called anti-semitic for for taking Netanyahu and his word that he can do this.
But if I have that wrong, if I've misinterpreted what he said, let me know because that would change my opinion a little bit.
All right.
Um, Matt Gates floated a uh plan.
Now, I don't think this one has any chance of happening, but it's interesting um nonetheless.
So, he suggests that uh both Iran and Israel give up their uh secret nuclear weapon programs.
Now, I don't think there's any chance that Israel is going to give up its secret nuclear weapon triad because it's probably pretty advanced and it would be insane to give it up, I guess.
Um, but it does make you wonder, um, is that one of the possibilities?
What would Iran say if Israel offered to legitimately get rid of its uh nuclear program?
Would Iran say, "Oh, well, I never thought that would happen." All right.
If you're going to do it, we can do it, too.
Would they?
Um, I don't think that that topic can even be broached because even if Israel put it out there as a suggested idea, it would be an acknowledgement that they have the secret nuclear nuclear triad that we all assume that they have.
So, I don't think there's any way that could work, but it does make you wonder.
Does make you think.
Anyway, um Tulsa Gabbard is of course under attack by the people who say uh that she disagrees with Trump and Trump said that she was wrong if she said that uh Iran couldn't make a a bomb.
So I think my first take on this early in the early on the drama was right that when Tulsi Gabbard was talking about Iran, she was talking about a decision to make a bomb and she said that the um the intelligence people in the United States have not detected that the Ayatollah has decided to make a nuclear weapon.
Whereas when Trump talks about it, he talks about the ability to make a nuclear weapon.
So if they walk right up to the threshold and they are enriching uranium to the point where there's no other legitimate reason to do it other than your intention to make a weapon.
Well, that would put Trump in the position of saying it almost doesn't matter what anybody has decided.
If they've walked up to the line where they can do it in three weeks, you have to treat it like they're doing it.
It's the same.
So, I don't see any difference between what Tulsi Gabbard said and what Trump says.
To me, they look like they're completely compatible.
They both would agree that Iran could do it fairly quickly.
So they're agreed on that.
And I don't think Trump has said that the Ayatollah has been detected as ordering it to be done.
He's not saying that.
He's just being a common sense person who says if they say death to America and they've been funding proxies and they they go right up to the threshold, what else would they have in mind?
You'd have to treat that like their intention is obvious.
So even if you don't know their intention and you can't read their mind, uh Trump is right.
You'd have to treat it as though you could read their mind and they do have the intention even if you don't know for sure.
Anyway, um here's a correction that uh I got a story completely wrong and uh Glenn Greenwald is correcting people like me.
The story was that the Washington Post has a reporter.
He used to work for El Jazer, which is part of the smearing of his reputation.
He used to work for El Jazer, but now he's on the Washington Post.
And when he reports about the missile damage in Israel, he was giving um actual coordinates, like GPS coordinates of where the damage was.
and Bill Aman and a number of other people and including me um in my podcast were saying, "Why would you do that?" Like, what possible reason would you want Iran to have the GPS coordinates of the missile attack?
Unless you were hoping they could improve their aim, because if you tell them where they landed, maybe they can adjust their their process somehow.
Now, that made sense to me when I said it, but let me tell you how stupid that was.
All right, so here here's a case where if I knew more, I would have done a better job.
As Glenn Greenwald points out, here's the most important part of the story.
The the I'm laughing at myself for what an idiot I am because this is really dumb.
Uh, where do you think the reporter got the GPS coordinates for the missile damage?
Do you think he was over there?
No, he's not over there.
He's in the United States.
So, how did he get the the missile coordinates of where the bombs hit?
It's public.
It's public.
So Iran would obviously already know what this reporter knows because it's public.
So he used a public source for the GPS coordinates which Iran has full access to.
And if that's not enough for you, apparently the same reporter has been doing the same thing, reporting the GPS coordinates for prior wars.
I think at least two prior wars.
And the reason he does it is so that um if you wanted to check basically it would allow you to have a way to check to see if the reporting is accurate.
Um he gives us the GPS coordinates.
So if somebody looked at it from let's say a satellite and they saw that that building was intact, they could say, "Oh, the reporting was wrong." So it's basically a way to let other people check his work.
So um I would like to apologize for getting that story absolutely wrong.
Just absolutely basswards.
And uh the journalist is Evan Hill.
So I I will apologize to him directly.
So, Evan, sorry about that.
Uh, I I got taken by that that hoax.
Anyway, uh this is why uh this is why you want to listen to uh Greenwald.
He he always has the better take on stuff.
Um, apparently the uh Trump administration is making some big changes to Obamacare and they're ending uh coverage for dreamers.
So the dreamers would be the children who are brought in by their parents and have grown up as Americans, uh, but they're not technically legal.
So apparently they're going to lose their Obamacare coverage.
Um, and my question is this.
Do you think that the um Trump administration is using the cover of the Israel Iran war to get away with some things that otherwise it would be too much public push back for?
Because this is in the area that, you know, a reasonable person could disagree because you're talking about, you know, people who did not make any decision to come here.
They were brought here by their parents and they would be losing healthcare.
Now, there's an argument on both sides.
I get it.
I get it.
You don't have to you don't have to argue with me.
I I see the argument.
But do you think do you think Trump could get away with this without there being some big international story that dominates?
I feel like I feel like the uh the Steven Millers have a little more flexibility because we're distracted by other things that seem like a bigger deal to us.
So that's my only comment on that.
I wonder if distraction is making a difference.
Well, Bill Maher had uh Wesley Hunt on who's a representative and uh Wesley Hunt did a unusually good job of slapping down Bill Maher's TDS.
Um so the first thing that uh that happened was uh Bill Maher was talking about Trump's military parade.
Um, and he he mentioned that it was a fascist parade and Wesley Hunt said this.
You know what I saw?
Uh, this is what Han said.
I saw the president salute the core of cadetses as they walked past them.
I watched them salute the 75th Ranger Regiment.
Um, I watched the fireworks behind the Washington Monument.
And you know what I thought?
Damn, that's absolutely outstanding.
And it's far better than Joe Biden checking his watch when bodies were being returned to do.
And then he reminds us that he was in the military.
He was an Apache pilot and he joined the military because of in part because of that type of patriotic treatment of the military.
Now that's a pretty darn good answer.
it's a fascist military.
And then the person who actually served, talking to Bill Maher, who did not serve in the military, says, "No, it wasn't fascist.
It's the reason I joined the military." That is a really good answer.
Now, but he had another chance to slap down Bill Maher.
Um because Bill Maher referred to January 6 as an insurrection and uh as his proof, Bill Maher said, you know, it's not a coincidence that they were protesting at the exact time the votes were being I think he said counted, but maybe certified was a better word.
Now, uh Wesley Hunt said, uh, "How do you have an insurrection with no guns?" There you go.
How do you have an insurrection with no guns?
Why did it take this long for somebody to say that on Bill Maher show?
How many times has Bill Maher referred to January 6 as an insurrection?
And it took all the way to now for Wesley Hunt to say, "How do you have an insurrection with no guns?" He went on saying, "That's like making coffee with no beans." One person was killed that day.
It was Ashley Babbot.
She was a white unarmed woman killed by a black Capitol police officer.
Imagine if that had been the other way around.
Ouch.
Oh, you're good, Wesley Hunt.
Um, and then Mara tried to argue it, but um, Wesley pointed out that the summer of love was way more dangerous and more people died and it was way worse.
Um, I would I would have added one thing.
So, that was that was a good comeback.
But I would add this.
Bill Maher does not understand what the protesters were thinking when they protested.
If what they were thinking was, I know we lost this election, but we're going to try to take over the country and install our our beloved Trump.
If that's what they were thinking, then that was an insurrection.
Even without the guns, that would be an insurrection.
But they weren't.
I'll bet you couldn't find even one person out and of the thousands of people, I'll bet you wouldn't find one who said, "I knew Trump lost, but I wanted him to be president anyway." I'll bet not one.
So, the entire argument that January 6 was an insurrection depends entirely on the mental state of the protesters.
If what they believed is that the election itself was obviously corrupt because of the the weird oddities of that election, you know, the the sudden surge of Biden, the the unusual number of votes he got compared to Obama and compared to other years, and then the uh the uh what do you call it, the the certain districts, the bellweather districts, um I think 13 or 14 went the wrong way.
You know, they're they're normally the most predictive thing in our elections and they all predicted that Trump won and he still lost.
So, if you ask those people, I'm pretty sure they would say, "We think that the election didn't look like it was necessarily fair, and we wanted them to pause just to look into it a little bit, just just to make sure that the right person won." How in the world does Bill Maher, who talks about politics for a living, not realize that he's never heard from anybody who was involved in the protest and that that's the only thing that matters?
What were they thinking?
And were they thinking that they were taking over the country and they left their guns home?
Is that what they were thinking?
So I think Wesley Hunt um he he was 60% of the way there with you know nobody nobody goes to a insurrection without guns but the other 40% that's a kill shot and nobody's taken a kill shot yet.
It's going to happen but nobody's done it yet.
New York Post is reporting that CNN is collapsing.
uh two of their executives just uh resigned.
Uh vice president of domestic news and VP of digital video and they'd both been there a long time and I guess there are big cost cutings coming and uh Anderson Cooper gets paid $18 million a year.
I've got a feeling that there might be a change coming to Anderson Cooper's compensation package, but we'll see.
Um, according to a post I saw by Mario Noel, who you should follow on X, he has great news summaries.
Um, he saw this in the CTU UCB cyber security research.
So that he has a source.
Apparently 500 research papers have been written uh in China about how to crash the power grid in America.
So um 367 Chinese papers targeting the US grids and 166 on European systems and they talked about how to create quote cascading failures and systematic collapse.
So if you're wondering is China wondering how to collapse our entire um power network?
The answer is yes.
They're putting a lot of effort into understanding what would work.
Now, the fact that there are so many different papers sort of suggests that maybe there's not one obvious way to do it, which maybe gives me a little weird comfort.
If if they have to do that much thinking about it, maybe it's not easy, you know, may maybe they can't just turn a switch, which we imagine they could do.
But uh the papers detail quote malicious data injection attacks.
Yikes.
What would uh keep China from attacking our grid?
Well, I think as long as we don't attack their grid or attack them, um it's unlikely they're going to attack us in that way because why would they?
But as a defensive move, um, China quite wisely has a pretty good backup plan.
And I have to admit it, I feel safer if China feels they can take down our electric grid than I would if the only tool they had was a nuclear weapon.
because taking down the power grid would kill a lot of people and it would be, you know, massively disruptive and horrible.
Um, but nuclear war would be worse.
So maybe it's good that they have some kind of halfway thing that they can do.
Obviously, we're Yeah, I'm sure America has looked into the same same question for their grid.
Well, the uh Postmillennials reporting that uh Representative Jerry Nadler um is accusing ICE agents of hiding misbehavior by wearing masks.
Now, apparently the Democrats have decided on another 20% issue.
How many people in the United States think that they want the ICE agents to reveal their identity to the the gangs, you know, MS13 and Trenagua?
How many people think that's a good idea?
Now, I understand that the, you know, regular cops on the street don't wear masks, and I'm happy about that.
But apparently, according to Breitbart, um there's a recent analysis, and the Department of Homeland Security sees a 500% increase in assaults on ICE um employees.
500% increase in assaults.
So if you were working in a job where there was a 500% increase in assaults and the Democrats were saying, "Hey, take off those masks so we can assault you even better." That can't be popular, is it?
Is it?
Isn't that another 8020 where 80% of the country would say oh yeah if they need to protect themselves they they have to do what they have to do or do you think um yeah or do you think uh that people agree with that that ICE should take off their masks so the gangs can figure out who they are?
I don't know.
I think uh I think I would let them keep the masks in this environment.
All right, ladies and gentlemen, that's all I got for you today.
Um there will not be a spaces after today's show.
That will be tomorrow, Sunday.
So, we'll I'll tell you about that tomorrow.
And I'm going to say a few words privately to the local subscribers, beloved beloved local subscribers.
And uh hope you'll come back tomorrow.
Same time, same place.
All right, locals.
We're going to go private in 30 seconds.
And happy Saturday everybody.
We've got a podcast for you like you've
never seen before.
Borrowing uh Trump's sayings. Nobody's
ever seen anything like it.
It would be the best thing ever in the
entire world.
Probably.
[Music]
Good morning everybody and welcome to
the highlight of human civilization.
It's called Coffee with Scott Adams and
you've never had a better time. But if
you'd like to try, and I say try to take
it up to levels that nobody can even
understand with their tiny shiny human
brains. All you need for that is
a copper micro glass tanker Charles, a
canteen joker flask, a vessel of any
kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid.
I like coffee. And join me now for the
unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine day
of the day. The thing that makes
everything better. It's called the
simultaneous sip and it happens now. Go.
Oh, that's good. There's only one thing
that could make it better.
Mr. Trump, would you like a sip? We are
going to drain the swamp in Washington
DC.
Go.
There he is. draining the swamp.
All right,
so there's some fun science coming up.
Oh, by the way, um although today is
Saturday, there will not be a spaces
event um after the show. That will be
tomorrow. So tomorrow on Sunday, Owen
Gregorian will have his spaces event
after the show.
Well, according to the ex account, uh,
creme,
if I'm pronouncing that correctly, and
I'm not.
Uh, apparently there's a good chance
that type 1 diabetes has been cured.
I don't know, maybe type 1 diabetes. So
apparently um over the last year there
was a test where 12 diabetics were
injected with a stem cell derived
pancreatic islets
and I was going to say have they never
tried injecting stem cell derived
pancreatic islets before but they did
now they tried it and uh apparently
people started producing insulin again.
And 10 out of 12 participants
after one year no longer needed to
inject insulin. Whoa. How about that?
Imagine that.
Imagine that you were alive, could be,
maybe, not for sure, when type 1
diabetes was cured. Wouldn't that be
awesome?
In other news,
uh there's a
what's being called a groundbreaking
study uh that says eating one avocado a
day could help you sleep better with all
of the health benefits of extra sleep.
Um let's see who did the study. Oh, uh
it's according to the HOS avocado board.
So, it's being reported by the Hos
avocado people that eating one avocado a
day can help you sleep better. Well, I
eat one avocado a day and I do sleep
pretty well. So, I call that science.
Um, I don't know who funded that study,
but uh I'm not I'm not sure the hos
avocado people are the the ones to
believe.
Um, here's another science thing. We'll
talk about Iran, of course. Um,
apparently according to the American
Society for Metabolic and Beriatric
Surgery, the people who have the uh
weight loss surgery, I guess that's the
one where they talk to your stomach, um,
they have a self-esteem improvement of
131%.
So, is there any way they could have
saved some money in that study? Hm. H I
wonder. Um suppose they ask me, Scott,
uh do you think that being in shape and
eating right and going to the gym, um
will that help your mental and physical
health and your happiness and your
chances of success?
Yes. Yes. There's never an exception.
Eating right and exercising
absolutely will make you happier and
healthier and more successful. Guarantee
it.
So next time just ask me. I'm here. Just
ask.
Um
apparently uh President Trump is uh
going back and forth on his his ideas
about deporting farm workers.
because he's quite aware that if he
departs all the uh the noncitizen farm
workers, we will starve to death
because it might take a while to replace
them with American workers, if we even
can.
And but here here's my favorite part
about this story. Um, remember how I
always tell you that Trump is he finds
it impossible to be boring?
Everything he says has that that little
bit of edge to it that makes you read it
twice. And he did it again with the the
farm worker deportation. So, here's a
Trump quote.
Quote, "I never want to hurt our
farmers. Our farmers are great people.
They keep us happy, healthy, and fat.
Trump is the only person uh well the
only president who would throw fat into
the end of that sentence. They keep us
happy and healthy and fat.
I can't tell you how many times I reread
the sentence. And that's what Trump does
to you. He just makes you reread the
sentence, you know, five times and laugh
every time. Why would you even do that?
He's the only person who can make that
sentence interesting.
Well, speaking of Trump,
as you know, um the Trump family has has
announced that they plan to go into the
mobile phone business.
Um, and
they actually plan to make the
smartphone in the United States. Now,
the people who know how to make
smartphones are very insistent that
that's not possible. That it would take,
I don't know, years and years to figure
out how to train Americans to make
phones and how to get all the
infrastructure and technology here and
factories.
But uh so far the uh I think Don Jr. has
said that he plans to make it in the
United States. So
do they know something that we don't
know? Is there a secret plan where they
can take a I don't know a Taiwanese or
Chinese company and just move it over
here and make those phones in America or
as some some are suggesting this is not
a real business that it might be more
for PR or something I don't know but it
doesn't seem to me that Don Jr. would be
involved in a totally makebelieve
business. He must have some kind of plan
to make these phones in the United
States, but we don't know what that is.
So maybe we'll be surprised.
Well, uh, AI is our David Saxs,
um, is very pro AI, as you might
imagine, and he says that AI will be
bigger than the iPhone, bigger than the
internet,
and it's going to fuel the growth of the
American economy for years to come and
would be one of the most important parts
of Trump's legacy. Now, uh, Saxs also
said separately on a post.x X that AI
might be adding jobs
um and not subtracting.
Now, of course, that would be a
controversial opinion because for sure
there are jobs that will go away,
but also for sure there will be jobs
that will be created. For example, um
over on Tik Tok, there are a whole bunch
of people using AI to get rich making
viral videos that are actually quite
entertaining. I like the ones of the uh
the cute little kittens who work at
McDonald's.
If you haven't seen that one, it's
pretty awesome. Or the uh the cats were
doing Olympic diving off a diving board.
So, the AI is pretty good now. Pretty
good. Now, those are special cases. You
know, it's not like we're all going to
be making AI content, but I do think
that Sachs might be closer to accurate.
When he says that AI might add jobs,
they'll just be completely different
jobs than we've ever had. or they'll be
the same job, but one person can do a
much better job of it perhaps. So, you
got that going on.
Um, I heard also some other famous
investor say that the the big investment
for the future is AI and if you're not
invested in AI,
um you're going to feel bad about it.
So uh I don't give uh investment advice
but you should know that some investors
are saying that AI is the place to the
place to be. Well, more to that point,
um, the CEO of OpenAI, Sam Alman,
um, he did a podcast, I think with his
brother, and he mentioned that, uh, Meta
is offering a$100 million bonus for the
top Open AI employees to leave OpenAI
and go work for Meta.
$100 million
just a bonus.
So that's not even counting their their
pay. That's just a bonus.
Does that sound real?
It doesn't really sound real to me, but
I don't think he'd make it up. It'd be a
weird thing to make up. So, I don't
know. I have some trouble believing that
uh that's true. It might be true of, you
know, three people in the world, you
know, the the smartest AI people. Maybe
they are worth 100 million. I don't
know. But, uh, I've decided to, uh, quit
my job as a cartoonist and become a AI
specialist. Try to get that $100 million
bonus. I'll let you know how that goes.
In other AI news, according to
neuroscience news,
uh researchers have figured out how to
get AI to um be more empathetic and work
on your emotions. So, they can tailor
emotional analogies to each user's
personality and life experience.
So, notice how they use analogies. They
use analogies to get empathy and to work
on your emotions.
And boy, that's dangerous.
It might be, you know, it's inevitable.
The AI will learn to manipulate the
emotions of humans. You know, there's no
way to stop that from happening. But,
uh, here it is. And I guess the big
takeaway is that you can't use the same
analogy for every person. You have to
have the analogy tailored for their
personality. But once you do that, you
can manipulate their feelings. And once
AI can manipulate our feelings,
who will be in charge?
Well, AI.
Because once AI can give you better
information than you had,
but then can also manipulate you with
analogies and stories and anecdotes.
Well, then it pretty much is going to
run everything.
So, that's coming. Um, and also
according to the Verge, Sarah Parker is
writing about this. Apparently, people
use chat GPT a lot, their vocabulary
starts to change.
And this one is fun. This is this one I
did not see coming. Apparently, even
though um AI is based on actual human
conversations and interactions,
there are different vocabulary words
that come up more in AI than they come
up in normal conversation. So,
apparently words like delve
are are words that AI would use more
likely than you would. When was the last
time you used the word delve as in we're
going to delve into that?
I I was wondering I was thinking I don't
know if I've ever used that word in
conversation.
I've read it. I've heard people say it,
but I don't know if I've ever used it
even once. you know, I I would say let's
dig into it or, you know, let's do a
deeper dive, but I don't think I maybe
I've never used that word, but
apparently people use AI and chat GPT in
particular.
They'll they'll start saying words like
uh
uh let's see, prowess and tapestry.
I guess those come up a lot in Chad GPT.
and they're less likely to use words
like bolster, unearth, and nuance
because chap doesn't use them as much.
So, here's the hypnotist take on the
story.
As a hypnotist, I can tell you that the
choice of words
can influence what you think about the
topic.
So it's not a
you know just a mere curiosity that
people use AI use different vocabulary
that specific vocabulary is very likely
to to change how you think about the
topic and you wouldn't know why.
So that's the hypnotist take. The
specific choice of words that you
associate with a topic
very much will influence your overall
opinion of the topic. And if you were to
just force somebody to use a different
vocabulary and in this case you know how
to force them it's happening naturally
they would think differently about the
topic depending on the topic. So now AI
can influence us by which vocabulary we
use, but it can also influence us by
being very useful. So we rely on it for
facts, even if they're wrong. And
apparently it can also influence us with
analogies and emotion and empathy.
So if you were wondering, is AI going to
start being in control of humans? Yeah.
Yeah. No doubt about it. There there
isn't the slightest chance that AI will
not be influencing what you think about
stuff. Now the interesting thing
is will this cause any kind of uh unity?
So right now the country is divided you
know by politics. What would happen if
AI
all the AIs start converging on the same
explanation of things and use the same
analogies and have similar vocabulary?
Is it possible that our diverse opinions
will merge into one opinion that
coincidentally or not is exactly what AI
would tell you is true?
That might happen. So, one possibility
is AI manipulates us and turns us into
mindless puppets and we don't know it.
Uh, the other possibility is it allows
us to stop fighting with each other
because we can all just look at AI and
go, "Oh, all right. I guess that's the
partake." And then we just agree with
it. So, could be good. Never know.
Um,
according to uh Trump, the US has
arranged a treaty, some kind of a peace
treaty between the Democratic Republic
of the Congo and the Republic of Rwanda.
Now, raise your hand if you knew that
the Republic of Congo and Republic of
Rwanda were in some kind of a war.
H I have to admit that although I do
know the number of people who live in
Iran, 92 million, I did not know
anything about the Republic of Condo or
Rwanda. However, according to the post
millennial,
um Trump is uh is bragging that the US
got that done and if we did, good job.
Marco Rubio and looks like they may have
been instrumental in that.
Uh but Trump being Trump and as I
already noted, it's impossible for him
to say something that's boring. Instead
of just saying, "Hey, good news. We've
got this peace deal.
We've got this new peace deal that was
really necessary." Instead of doing
that, he announces it. And at the same
time, in the same message, he complains
that he probably won't get a Nobel Peace
Prize for his work with India and
Pakistan, his work with Serbia and
Kosovo. I don't even know what that was.
Egypt and Ethiopia. Again, I have no
idea what that was about. Does anybody
know what Trump did to make things
better between Egypt and Ethiopia?
I do not.
And then he also mentions the Abraham
Accords as all the things he's done for
peace and uh but he won't get a Nobel
Peace Prize because that only goes to
liberals, he says. And he says that even
if he were to end the war in Ukraine and
uh get a good result in Iran, even if he
could do that, he says he'll never get
the Nobel Peace Prize. Now,
do you recognize what form of uh
persuasion he's using?
This is not random.
This is really good persuasion because
he keeps saying that he won't get the
Nobel Peace Prize.
What do I teach you about negatives?
This is another hypnotist trick. Um,
the hypnotist trick is that the more you
make people think Nobel Peace Prize and
peace prize for this. I won't get the
Nobel Peace Prize for this. And your
brain doesn't hear the won't. It it sort
of forgets it right away. And all you
can think of is Trump and Nobel Peace
Prize.
So, it's actually a super clever way of
increasing the odds that he gets a Nobel
Peace Prize,
which to me is hilarious. It's hilarious
that he's working on it, like he
actually is trying to get one.
I kind of I kind of love that. All
right. Well, as you know, the news is
never complete without some stories
about Elon Musk. Today is no exception.
And apparently uh Elon Musk scolded
Grock, his own his own AI uh because
Grock said that used sources Media
Matters and Rolling Stone to uh dispute
something said by ex user Cat Turd 2.
And apparently uh and so Musk responded
to Grock on the Xplatform like he was
talking to a person and he said to
Grock, "Your sourcing is terrible. Only
a very dumb AI would believe media
banners and Rolling Stone. You were
being updated this week."
So, so Musk is having a conversation
with his own AI and scolding it and
saying that it's using bad sources and
he's going to fix it.
Now, that's funny.
Well, speaking of Elon Musk, apparently
Tesla, according to CNBC,
is just signed a deal with China to
build their largest gridscale battery
power plant.
Um,
now I think the the batteries are also
made in China, but uh the it's a yeah,
they've got a battery factory in
Shanghai and it's made over a 100 megaps
in the first quarter. So what this is
about is a way to make your network more
efficient because you can store the uh
cheaply
cheaply generated electricity in your
batteries and then release them as you
need them and uh China will be first.
Now, I don't make um I don't give
financial advice,
but if you knew that Tesla just signed a
enormous deal to create a gridcale
battery power plants in China and
they're planning to do it for other
countries as well. Isn't that one of the
biggest businesses in the world? I mean
it's starting you know it's starting
with one but wouldn't every every power
grid want this
so what is what is exactly the size of
this financial opportunity it looks like
it's bigger than cars I mean uh
literally every country and every grid
would probably get some benefit from
having a battery you know a battery uh
power land. Anyway,
um according to Politico
and uh Carrie Lake was announcing this
as her in her role as a a advisor to
President Trump. Apparently, a majority
of the staff of Voice of America is
getting released, terminated.
And uh
what is uh senior presidential advisor
Carrie Lake said, "Today we took
decisive actions to effectuate."
Effectuate.
There's a word that I don't use.
Effectuate.
When was the last time you used
effectuate in a sentence?
Um I would say I've never used it once.
Uh, this is the first time I've ever
said that word out loud. Effectuate.
Um, the Trump agenda to shrink the
control federal bureaucracy. So, we'll
see if that sticks. Eliminating 1,400
jobs and 85% cut to the workforce there.
Good job.
All right. As I've said before, um,
pundit and humorist comic Dave Smith
has, uh, very,
let's say, effectively and impressively
worked his way into the conversation
about the biggest topics in America, in
this case, the Israel Iran conflict. And
I'm very impressed
because, you know, it'd be one thing if
you were a famous geopolitical expert,
but to become one of the central people
in the conversation
coming out of the humor field, you know,
the the podcast punditry world,
you really have to be doing something
well.
And even if you disagree with him, and
I'm gonna disagree with him a little bit
today, even if you disagree, I really
like what he adds to the conversation
because he does sort of force people to
debate him. And, you know, you can judge
for yourself who's got the better
opinion, but uh I like where he takes
the conversations. But he had a uh a
post that actually got millions of uh
views
and I will read it to you. His post was,
"Okay, fine. Iran doesn't have nukes,
but have you heard their chance? We must
go to war to stop these chants."
Now, that's a pretty good humorist take,
but is there any more to this story? Of
course there is. So, here's here's my
take, and he may have he may have
already answered this. I don't know. But
I weighed in on that.
And I said in the comments, I haven't
heard an innocent reason why Iran
insists on threshold enrichment levels.
Threshold meaning right up to the point
where you can make a nuclear weapon.
uh and there's no reason to be there at
that level of enrichment. There there's
not a civilian use for it. The only use
for it is if you want to be poised to
very quickly make a nuclear weapon. Now,
that's as far as I know. There may be
some expert who says, "But Scott, you
idiot. Don't you know that getting to
60% enrichment is just, you know, useful
for this or that?" Well, I don't know. I
haven't heard that. I I've not heard
that argument. Now, the other thing you
need to know is that getting from 60%
to 90%, which is where you need to be
for a bomb, I understand, is not a
question of getting from 60 to 90.
Apparently, the uh enrichment process
has a logarithmic kind of quality to it.
So that 60 is right next to 90. So if
you can get to 60, then getting to 90
might take three weeks. That's that's my
understanding, but I you know, I could
be wrong about that, but I think that's
right. So, has anybody heard Iran give
any kind of public explanation
of why they would need to increase their
their enrichment to the point where
there's only one reason that I know of,
which is to be ready to make a nuclear
weapon.
Now, you add that to the fact that
they've been funding proxies to try to
destroy, you know, Israel for a long
time, and uh they've done a number of
terrorist acts against Americans in the
area over the years. And then on top of
that, they have this uh this chant about
death to Israel and death to America.
Now, I would agree that if the only
problem was their chanting,
I would not be so worried. But if you
combine death to America, death to
Israel with building a enrichment
capacity, which only has one purpose,
and a history of funding proxies to
attack Israel,
that looks pretty aggressive to me. That
that looks like more than a chant.
So,
um I went online and said a few things
about the Israel situation and what I
found was that if you say anything that
um people disagree with on this topic,
you will be called anti-semitic.
So, I I got called anti-semitic for I
think just asking some question online
and somebody said, "Whoa, why would you
do that? Why would you even question
that? Unless you're anti-Semitic. To
which I say, "Oh, you. Just
you. I'm not anti-semitic.
If I have questions about why we're
doing what we're doing and how we're
doing it, that has nothing to do with
any kind of anti-semitism.
These are, you know, three countries
that are in this situation. And if I
talk about it, it's because I'm trying
to understand it or predict it.
There's no deeper no deeper meaning. Um,
and then there are the people who say
that
essentially Israel and Iran are sort of
morally and ethically similar.
Now, that's the the mode I don't want to
get into because once you get into the
moral ethical part, you're you know, you
just have to take a side and I don't
want to do that. But I would point out
that it seems very unlikely
if Iran decided to be totally, you know,
peaceful and not make any threats or any
threatening moves toward its neighbors,
it seems deeply unlikely that Israel
would attack them. Wouldn't you say? But
would that be the same if Israel decided
to be totally peaceful? Would they be
attacked by Iran or Iranian proxies?
Well, it doesn't look like those are the
same to me. To me, it looks like Iran
has a long-term goal to erase Israel, at
least as a country, uh, off the map.
I I don't see that Israel has any kind
of goal like that as far as I know. They
would love to probably have some kind of
regime change that loved Israel, but you
know, what are the odds of that? Pretty
low. So
any uh comparison of the two seems out
of place to me.
Uh meanwhile, the National Review, the
conservative publication in this
country, is attacking uh what they call
skeptics of the Iraq war, and they've
got a new uh updated article uh calling
them unpatriotic conservatives.
Um, oh, that's what they called the
people who were against the Iraq war,
but now they're using it to to go
against the people who are against the,
you know, the attack of Iran.
So, it makes you wonder what is the
National Review?
Is the job of the National Review news
or opinion
or do they work for the
uh military-industrial complex and it's
just their way of influencing the
country? It makes me wonder what exactly
is the National Review.
Well, as you know, uh Trump has said
that he's going to give uh well, before
I get to that, there there are two
stories about two weeks. The first story
about two weeks is that Israel said they
thought that they would be done with
their war in two weeks.
Now, when uh people like me talk about
international geopolitical stuff, the
first thing you probably say to yourself
is, "What the hell does he know about
geopolitical anything? Does he even know
the population of Iran?" Yes, I do. 92
million. Um,
but uh wouldn't you imagine that my
opinion about the Israel Iran situation
should be kind of worthless because I
have no experience in that domain, you
know, no special knowledge. I haven't
been there. So, wouldn't you just sort
of automatically assume that I would be
wrong about everything unless I just got
lucky?
Well, let's uh keep track because I have
made some specific public uh
predictions.
One of my predictions is that there was
no way that Israel would be done in two
weeks. How am I doing so far?
Well, if uh Trump's two weeks is if they
keep to Trump's two weeks, and he he
says that's a maximum. So, there's some
there's some chance that Trump will act
before the two weeks is over, but I
think that's low. It'll at least be 3
weeks.
But on top of that, um there is a uh
military commander um
who says that uh
he said it's going to take longer. He
says uh difficult days still lie ahead
and that Israel must be ready for a
quote prolonged campaign. So that that's
coming from Israel. So, Israel, it looks
like, has already abandoned their two
week estimate.
So, did you see anybody else um say that
the two weeks were would probably be
I didn't I did not see one expert say,
"I don't think this will be done in two
weeks. It might take months."
Only me. Now, did I use my geopolitical
expertise? No. I used the Dilbert
filter. The Dilbert filter works
whenever there's any big complicated
human endeavor.
And nobody ever got anything done in two
weeks. Two weeks for a war.
Come on. Who Who ever believed that that
was going to get done in two weeks? So
here's an example
where I don't have any geopolitical,
you know, uh, experience whatsoever,
but that that kind of stood out as a
glaring obvious point that you could
question. How many of you said the same
thing? Said, "All right, there's no way
this is going to be done in two weeks."
Because nothing is nothing is ever done
in two weeks. No matter no matter how
sure you are that it can be, it just
never is.
So, I got that one right. Anyway,
so Trump says he's going to give Iran a
couple of weeks. Um, some say that's
mostly so he can move some more assets
into place, like naval assets, etc., in
case we need to go hard. Apparently,
there's reports that several B2 uh
stealth bombers have already taken off.
Um, and they're going from Missouri to
Guam.
Now, presumably that would get them
closer to the theater that they might be
used in. And this would be an indication
that Trump has either u decided he's
going to attack or wants Iran to think
that that's a strong possibility.
And
um some say that the two weeks that
Trump is giving is just to see if
anything changes in a favorable way. So,
for example, if Israel had, let's say,
some unexpectedly big successes in the
next two weeks that change the equation.
Well, then you're going to be, you know,
you're going to be glad that Trump
waited because maybe we don't have to
attack. So, what could happen in those
two weeks besides getting more military
assets in place?
Um, some people say that Thran might
abandon its uh nuclear program.
I don't think that's going to happen.
So, expecting them to tell the
Europeans, you know, we don't want to
talk to America or Israel, but we'd be
happy to abandon our enrichment program.
That's not going to happen. I don't see
Iran bending to the will of the West.
Um, so we've got this twoe period and
Trump in his usual way says it's a
maximum so that it it keeps them
guessing that they they they won't get
too comfortable for two weeks because
maybe just maybe something will happen
faster. Now the big question is should
the United States be involved in taking
out the Ford and maybe one other
underground bunker facility?
uh under the belief that only America
has the weapons that can do that and
that would be the bunker busters that
they say would have to be double hold.
So you would have to use one to make a
big hole and then drop another one in
the same hole to get deeper.
And the American weapon makers and the
military-industrial complex is telling
us via the news, oh, this will
definitely work. Now, there's a question
of whether we should do it, but the
people who make the weapons and talk
about the weapons and know the most
about the weapons, which is not me,
right? So again here here's another
situation where I do not have any
knowledge of militaryindustrial complex.
I do not know anything about bunker
busters or anything about these uh B2
stealth bombers.
So coming from no knowledge whatsoever
and being in the same conversation with
people who are geopolitical military
experts. Let me put the Dilbert filter
on this.
Nobody knows if those bombs will
work.
Are you kidding me? Let let me take you
to the real world for a moment.
They've never tested dropping two bunker
busters in the same hole. They do not
know exactly
what is, you know, inside that Fordau
mountain and just exactly how things are
protected in there. They might know a
lot, but they don't know everything.
When was the last time you saw somebody
do this a complicated thing that had
never been done before and it worked out
perfectly and they knew it in advance.
That's not a function of the real world.
In the real world, you'd be really lucky
if you got this to work on the first
try. And I don't know if there'll be
more than one try.
So, the first thing I'm going to say
without being any kind of a military
expert is that probably everybody lies
about how powerful their weapons are.
Uh, were you ever surprised when you
heard that the Iron Dome or or some
version of the Iron Dome was not not
stopping all the missiles and somebody
probably told you, oh yeah, the
anti-missile defense is going to get 98%
of the missiles and then it turns out
maybe it gets 90%. But 10%'s a lot of
missiles to let through. So I would say
that whenever you hear somebody say that
a a weapon system will definitely work
really in the real world. In the real
world you've never used it in this way
and but you're sure it's going to work.
All right. So we're not sure it's going
to work and and you should not imagine
that that anybody knows that with
certainty whether it'll work. Now, I
don't know the odds. If you said, "Well,
what are the odds that it doesn't work?"
I don't know. But nobody else knows
either. The only thing I know for sure
is it's not a definite.
If it were definite, that might change
the equation a little bit, but it's not.
It's not definite.
And just to make things interesting,
uh Netanyahu has said publicly that
Israel can take care of the Iranian
nuclear program without America's help
if they have to.
Now, are you all aware of that? I'll
I'll take a fact check on that if I'm
wrong, but correct me if I'm wrong. Um
Netanyahu has recently publicly
said that they don't need America's
involvement. They could take care of it
in a different way. They don't have
these bunker busters, but there might be
some way to do something on the ground
or, you know, with with special forces
or something. Now, would that put would
that put Israel in a position of taking
um losses?
Yes, of course. That's what military
conflicts do. they put you in a position
where where people could be killed on
your side.
Um, but that does settle the question in
my mind of whether Trump should um
authorize the the B the B2 bombers to
drop the bunker busters. And the answer
is no.
If if Israel says that they can handle
it without us, why would we even
consider it?
Now, you would consider it if our
involvement made it a guarantee that it
would work and Israel couldn't do it by
itself, but that's not the case. Our
bunker busters are anything but
guaranteed.
And Israel says they can do it.
Why wouldn't we at least wait two weeks
to see if they can do it? Is it possible
that Trump's two weeks is really waiting
to see if Israel can make a dent at
Forau with some kind of different
strategy? Uh, and you could imagine I
won't I won't mention any that I could
think of because I'm not smart enough,
but there might be some way to get a
hold of whoever it is who has the the
lock to open the front door.
Don't you think there's probably more
than one person in the world who knows
how to open that door?
Is it is it a combination lock?
Is it a multi-step process where the
people inside the facility have to be
the ones to unlock it from the inside?
Is that how it works? I'm just
speculating.
But don't you think there's some chance
that Israel could get a hold of whoever
has the key or the combination or the
secret, you know, digital way to open
that thing. Maybe there's just a way to
open the front door that that we don't
know about. Maybe Israel knows more
about that because they're they're
pretty deeply, you know, into the pants
of the of the Iranian everything. Maybe
they know. But anyway, so the
alternative
the alternative to Israel doing it
themselves and believing that they can
do it themselves is that Israel um went
into the war knowing that they could not
succeed without American involvement in
the war. Now that would be much worse,
wouldn't you think?
And when I asked that question online on
X, I said, "When did Israel know that
they couldn't do this alone?" Now, of
course, they say that they can do it
alone. So, that would be new information
from when I asked the question.
So, isn't it way worse
if Israel tried to trick the United
States into getting involved by getting
us a little bit pregnant than saying,
"Well, we got to this point, but the
only way we can finish it is by getting
America involved directly, more directly
in the war."
So, I would say this made the decision
for Trump kind of easy
because if Israel says they can do it
and then he authorizes the United States
to be involved in the war and then Iran
attacks our homeland, takes off our
turns off our lights with cyber attacks
and uh starts killing people in bases in
the Middle East, Americans,
that's going to look like a failure,
right?
So, you know, that would be some
somewhat of an unforgivable mistake. But
more than that,
it would be an admission that Israel is
wagging Trump's tail.
Meaning that it would suggest that the
only way we got into this situation is
that Israel knew that if they started
the war, they could drag us in to finish
it off. Now, I don't want to believe
that about Netanyahu.
So, I'm going to take him at his word
that I believe he said, and I'll I'll
take your fact check if I'm wrong about
this, but if they think they have a way
to do it, even if they don't know that
it will work, they have to try that
first.
So,
to me, the decision is already made.
It it's really hard for me to imagine
that Trump would allow a situation where
history would say Netanyahu tricked him
into a war.
Just just think about think about
Trump's personality.
Think about his, you know, decades of
being anti-war.
And then think about the prospect of
being treated by history as though you
got tricked into a war
by your own ally.
There's no way he's going to allow that
situation.
So, as long as Netanyahu has said
publicly, we could probably take care of
this ourselves, he has to let them.
And I would say that any other decision
would look like a mistake and history
would judge him harshly for it. Now,
what would happen if Israel tried and
they lost some troops and they did not
succeed and then they gave up? Well,
then that's a separate decision. From
that point, you can say, "All right, new
information. It turns out that Israel
can't do it alone because they tried."
But I'll tell you the one thing that
we're not going to be able to live with.
We're not going to be able to live with
Netanyahu saying he can do it and not
letting him see if he can.
There there's no way we're going to live
with that. And there's no way that
Trump's legacy could survive uh getting
involved when it doesn't seem necessary
according to Israel and they would know
more about the situation that we would.
So,
uh, I'm sure I will be called
anti-semitic for for taking Netanyahu
and his word that he can do this. But if
I have that wrong, if I've
misinterpreted what he said, let me know
because that would change my opinion a
little bit. All right.
Um, Matt Gates floated a uh plan. Now, I
don't think this one has any chance of
happening, but it's interesting um
nonetheless. So, he suggests that uh
both Iran and Israel give up their uh
secret nuclear weapon programs.
Now, I don't think there's any chance
that Israel is going to give up its
secret nuclear weapon triad because it's
probably pretty advanced
and it would be insane to give it up, I
guess. Um, but it does make you wonder,
um, is that one of the possibilities?
What would Iran say if Israel offered to
legitimately get rid of its uh nuclear
program?
Would Iran say, "Oh, well, I never
thought that would happen." All right.
If you're going to do it, we can do it,
too. Would they?
Um, I don't think that that topic can
even be broached because even if Israel
put it out there as a suggested idea, it
would be an acknowledgement that they
have the secret nuclear
nuclear triad that we all assume that
they have. So, I don't think there's any
way that could work, but it does make
you wonder.
Does make you think.
Anyway, um Tulsa Gabbard is of course
under attack by the people who say uh
that she disagrees with Trump and Trump
said that she was wrong if she said that
uh Iran couldn't make a a bomb. So I
think my first take on this early in the
early on the drama was right that when
Tulsi Gabbard was talking about Iran,
she was talking about a decision to make
a bomb and she said that the um the
intelligence people in the United States
have not detected that the Ayatollah has
decided to make a nuclear weapon.
Whereas when Trump talks about it, he
talks about the ability to make a
nuclear weapon. So if they walk right up
to the threshold and they are enriching
uranium to the point where there's no
other legitimate reason to do it other
than your intention to make a weapon.
Well, that would put Trump in the
position of saying it almost doesn't
matter
what anybody has decided. If they've
walked up to the line where they can do
it in three weeks, you have to treat it
like they're doing it. It's the same.
So, I don't see any difference between
what Tulsi Gabbard said and what Trump
says. To me, they look like they're
completely compatible. They both would
agree that Iran could do it fairly
quickly. So they're agreed on that. And
I don't think Trump has said that the
Ayatollah has been detected as ordering
it to be done. He's not saying that.
He's just being a common sense person
who says if they say death to America
and they've been funding proxies and
they they go right up to the threshold,
what else would they have in mind? You'd
have to treat that like their intention
is obvious. So even if you don't know
their intention and you can't read their
mind,
uh Trump is right. You'd have to treat
it as though you could read their mind
and they do have the intention even if
you don't know for sure.
Anyway, um here's a correction that uh I
got a story completely wrong and uh
Glenn Greenwald is correcting people
like me.
The story was that the Washington Post
has a reporter. He used to work for El
Jazer, which is part of the smearing of
his reputation. He used to work for El
Jazer, but now he's on the Washington
Post. And when he reports about the
missile damage in Israel, he was giving
um actual coordinates, like GPS
coordinates of where the damage was. and
Bill Aman and a number of other people
and including me um in my podcast were
saying, "Why would you do that?" Like,
what possible reason would you want Iran
to have the GPS coordinates of the
missile attack? Unless
you were hoping they could improve their
aim, because if you tell them where they
landed, maybe they can adjust their
their process somehow. Now, that made
sense to me when I said it,
but let me tell you how stupid that was.
All right, so here here's a case where
if I knew more, I would have done a
better job.
As Glenn Greenwald points out, here's
the most important part of the story.
The the
I'm laughing at myself for what an idiot
I am because this is really dumb.
Uh, where do you think the reporter got
the GPS coordinates for the missile
damage? Do you think he was over there?
No, he's not over there. He's in the
United States. So, how did he get the
the missile coordinates of where the
bombs hit?
It's public.
It's public.
So Iran would obviously already know
what this reporter knows because it's
public. So he used a public source for
the GPS coordinates which Iran has full
access to.
And if that's not enough for you,
apparently the same reporter has been
doing the same thing, reporting the GPS
coordinates for prior wars. I think at
least two prior wars. And the reason he
does it is so that um if you wanted to
check basically it would allow you to
have a way to check to see if the
reporting is accurate. Um he gives us
the GPS coordinates. So if somebody
looked at it from let's say a satellite
and they saw that that building was
intact, they could say, "Oh, the
reporting was wrong."
So it's basically a way to let other
people check his work.
So um I would like to apologize
for getting that story absolutely wrong.
Just absolutely basswards.
And uh the journalist is Evan Hill.
So I I will apologize to him directly.
So, Evan, sorry about that. Uh, I I got
taken by that that hoax.
Anyway, uh this is why uh
this is why you want to listen to uh
Greenwald.
He he always has the better take on
stuff.
Um,
apparently the uh Trump administration
is making some big changes to Obamacare
and they're ending uh coverage for
dreamers. So the dreamers would be the
children who are brought in by their
parents and have grown up as Americans,
uh, but they're not technically legal.
So apparently they're going to lose
their Obamacare
coverage.
Um,
and my question is this.
Do you think that the um Trump
administration is using the cover of the
Israel Iran war to get away with some
things that otherwise it would be too
much public push back for? Because this
is in the area that,
you know, a reasonable person could
disagree
because you're talking about, you know,
people who did not make any decision to
come here. They were brought here by
their parents and they would be losing
healthcare.
Now, there's an argument on both sides.
I get it. I get it. You don't have to
you don't have to argue with me. I I see
the argument. But do you think do you
think Trump could get away with this
without there being some big
international story that dominates?
I feel like I feel like the uh the
Steven Millers have a little more
flexibility because we're distracted by
other things that seem like a bigger
deal to us. So that's my only comment on
that. I wonder if distraction is making
a difference.
Well, Bill Maher
had uh Wesley Hunt on who's a
representative and uh Wesley Hunt did a
unusually good job of slapping down Bill
Maher's TDS.
Um so the first thing that uh that
happened was uh Bill Maher was talking
about Trump's military parade. Um, and
he he mentioned that it was a fascist
parade
and Wesley Hunt said this. You know what
I saw? Uh, this is what Han said. I saw
the president salute the core of
cadetses as they walked past them. I
watched them salute the 75th Ranger
Regiment. Um, I watched the fireworks
behind the Washington Monument.
And you know what I thought? Damn,
that's absolutely outstanding. And it's
far better than Joe Biden checking his
watch when bodies were being returned to
do. And then he reminds us
that he was in the military. He was an
Apache pilot and he joined the military
because of in part because of that type
of patriotic treatment of the military.
Now that's a pretty darn good answer.
it's a fascist military. And then the
person who actually served, talking to
Bill Maher, who did not serve in the
military, says, "No, it wasn't fascist.
It's the reason I joined the military."
That is a really good answer. Now, but
he had another chance to slap down Bill
Maher.
Um because Bill Maher referred to
January 6 as an insurrection
and uh as his proof, Bill Maher said,
you know, it's not a coincidence that
they were protesting at the exact time
the votes were being I think he said
counted, but maybe certified was a
better word.
Now, uh Wesley Hunt said, uh, "How do
you have an insurrection with no guns?"
There you go. How do you have an
insurrection with no guns? Why did it
take this long for somebody to say that
on Bill Maher show? How many times has
Bill Maher referred to January 6 as an
insurrection? And it took all the way to
now
for Wesley Hunt to say, "How do you have
an insurrection with no guns?"
He went on saying, "That's like making
coffee with no beans."
One person was killed that day. It was
Ashley Babbot. She was a white unarmed
woman killed by a black Capitol police
officer. Imagine if that had been the
other way around. Ouch. Oh, you're good,
Wesley Hunt.
Um,
and then Mara tried to argue it, but um,
Wesley pointed out that the summer of
love was way more dangerous and more
people died and it was way worse. Um, I
would I would have added one thing.
So, that was that was a good comeback.
But I would add this. Bill Maher does
not understand
what the protesters were thinking when
they protested. If what they were
thinking was, I know we lost this
election, but we're going to try to take
over the country and install our our
beloved Trump. If that's what they were
thinking, then that was an insurrection.
Even without the guns, that would be an
insurrection.
But they weren't. I'll bet you couldn't
find even one person out and of the
thousands of people, I'll bet you
wouldn't find one who said, "I knew
Trump lost, but I wanted him to be
president anyway." I'll bet not one. So,
the entire argument that January 6 was
an insurrection depends entirely on the
mental state of the protesters.
If what they believed is that the
election itself was obviously corrupt
because of the the weird oddities of
that election, you know, the the sudden
surge of Biden, the the unusual number
of votes he got compared to Obama and
compared to other years, and then the uh
the uh what do you call it, the the
certain districts, the bellweather
districts, um I think 13 or 14 went the
wrong way. You know, they're they're
normally the most predictive thing in
our elections and they all predicted
that Trump won and he still lost.
So, if you ask those people, I'm pretty
sure they would say, "We think that the
election didn't look like it was
necessarily fair, and we wanted them to
pause just to look into it a little bit,
just just to make sure that the right
person won."
How in the world does Bill Maher, who
talks about politics for a living, not
realize that he's never heard from
anybody who was involved in the protest
and that that's the only thing that
matters? What were they thinking? And
were they thinking that they were taking
over the country and they left their
guns home?
Is that what they were thinking? So I
think Wesley Hunt um he he was 60% of
the way there with you know nobody
nobody goes to a insurrection without
guns but the other 40%
that's a kill shot and nobody's taken a
kill shot yet. It's going to happen but
nobody's done it yet.
New York Post is reporting that CNN is
collapsing. uh two of their executives
just uh resigned. Uh vice president of
domestic news and VP of digital video
and they'd both been there a long time
and I guess there are big cost cutings
coming and
uh Anderson Cooper gets paid $18 million
a year.
I've got a feeling that there might be a
change coming to Anderson Cooper's
compensation package, but we'll see.
Um,
according to a post I saw by Mario Noel,
who you should follow on X, he has great
news summaries. Um, he saw this in the
CTU UCB cyber security research. So that
he has a source. Apparently 500 research
papers have been written uh in China
about how to crash the power grid in
America.
So
um 367
Chinese papers targeting the US grids
and 166 on European systems and they
talked about how to create quote
cascading failures and systematic
collapse.
So if you're wondering
is China wondering how to collapse our
entire um power network? The answer is
yes. They're putting a lot of effort
into understanding what would work.
Now, the fact that there are so many
different papers
sort of suggests that maybe there's not
one obvious way to do it, which maybe
gives me a little weird comfort. If if
they have to do that much thinking about
it, maybe it's not easy, you know, may
maybe they can't just turn a switch,
which we imagine they could do.
But uh the papers detail quote malicious
data injection attacks. Yikes.
What would uh keep China from attacking
our grid?
Well, I think as long as we don't attack
their grid or attack them,
um it's unlikely they're going to attack
us in that way because why would they?
But as a defensive move,
um, China quite wisely has a pretty good
backup plan.
And I have to admit it, I feel safer if
China feels they can take down our
electric grid than I would if the only
tool they had was a nuclear weapon.
because taking down the power grid would
kill a lot of people and it would be,
you know, massively disruptive and
horrible. Um, but nuclear war would be
worse. So maybe it's good that they have
some kind of halfway thing that they can
do. Obviously, we're Yeah, I'm sure
America has looked into the same same
question for their grid.
Well, the uh Postmillennials reporting
that uh Representative Jerry Nadler
um is accusing ICE agents of hiding
misbehavior by wearing masks.
Now, apparently the Democrats have
decided on another 20% issue.
How many people in the United States
think that they want the ICE agents to
reveal their identity to the the gangs,
you know, MS13 and Trenagua?
How many people think that's a good
idea? Now, I understand that the, you
know, regular cops on the street don't
wear masks, and I'm happy about that.
But apparently, according to Breitbart,
um there's a recent analysis, and the
Department of Homeland Security sees a
500% increase in assaults on ICE
um employees.
500% increase in assaults.
So if you were working in a job where
there was a 500% increase in assaults
and the Democrats were saying, "Hey,
take off those masks so we can assault
you even better."
That can't be popular, is it? Is it?
Isn't that another 8020
where 80% of the country would say oh
yeah if they need to protect themselves
they they have to do what they have to
do or do you think
um yeah or do you think uh that people
agree with that that ICE should take off
their masks so the gangs can figure out
who they are?
I don't know. I think uh I think I would
let them keep the masks in this
environment.
All right, ladies and gentlemen, that's
all I got for you today. Um there will
not be a spaces after today's show. That
will be tomorrow, Sunday. So, we'll I'll
tell you about that tomorrow. And I'm
going to say a few words privately to
the local subscribers, beloved beloved
local subscribers. And uh hope you'll
come back tomorrow. Same time, same
place.
All right, locals. We're going to go
private in 30 seconds.