Episode 776 Scott Adams - Iran, Celebrity Drunk-Tweets, My Conspiracy Theories About it All

uncle papa hey everybody come on in here well it turns out that 2020 is starting off with a bang we got a lot to talk about do you know do you remember impeachment impeachment is so last year what was that all about I'm having trouble remembering it what was it in Pietschmann again and why was it was it about some paperwork or something don't even remember but today we'll have a very special simultaneous up no today will not be a normal simultaneous simple it's a special one so today we're going to have a simultaneous it for our men and women in uniform who have protected us so well so far and we're active in Iran well actually active in Iraq and this time we're going to drink to them so this will be your very special simultaneous tip for the military as a thank you and show respect get ready 1 2 3 uh-huh special military simultaneous up it was as good as I thought it would be quite good quite good all right well apparently it was an amazing military operation we're gonna hear a lot more about it probably in the coming days and weeks but so congratulations to our military I'm amazed how well that went now we might find out later it was messier than we think but at the moment it looks like we could follow a specific individual we could target him from a drone and we could take out his car from the air and you know of course we've been able to do that for a while but every time we do it I say to myself is is ground war just obsolete I'm starting to think ground wars just don't make any sense anymore we can do stuff like that is it my imagination of course we're gonna be talking about the killing of Solomon Solomon II Ptolemy I don't know how to pronounce his name but I don't feel like I have to try too hard either is it my imagination or does he have evil eyes now when I say he has evil eyes I think his eyes are actually spread across you know about an acre but before he was killed did he see the pictures of him he had the most evil looking eyes I've ever seen on a human being part of his because he had that sort of salt and pepper of gray hair but those eyebrows were black so he had like these dark flower evil terrorist eyes now if you don't think that matters you're wrong because if he looked like a nice guy I think it would could make a little bit of difference I'm not a big difference but it make a difference so Trump tweeted a American flag last night was which was kind of perfect because he was just reminding the country they were all on the same team and things could get a little ugly I will remind you that we're in the fog of war so the first first two days you're likely to hear incorrect reporting now we're probably it's probably true that we killed Solomon II the general but don't be surprised if we find out new facts about the whole situation that completely changes how you think about it so if it's like every other situation you're gonna have some surprises in the next few days but before we get to my my own theories about this I would like to read for you some celebrity tweets on the topic now a lot of you said to yourselves hey there's a big international story I better turn on CNN and I've got a listen to Fox News I'd better catch up but you're not really fully caught up until you've heard the drunk tweets of celebrities on this topic and so I'd like to read two tweets one from actor John Cusack and one from actress Rose Mc.

Gowan now I'm reading the tweet and it's got punctuation that's all over the place and he spelled the word until with two L's at the end and I'm feeling like maybe he had a drink but this is the way I read his tweet Trump in full fashion mode 101 mode steal and lie until there's nothing left and started war he's so hideous he doesn't know he just attacked around that's not like anywhere else and then Rose Mc.

Gowan dear hashtag around the USA has disrespected your country your flag our ball 52% of us humbly apologize we walk is with irritation we are being held hostage by a terrorist we do not know how to escape please please do not kill us hashtag solemn Eddie see now I feel like you're up to date a lot of people a lot of people haven't caught up with the drunk tweets yet but now you have so I'm looking at some of the complaints and the funniest complaints are the ones that go like this if somebody is a terrorist and he's killing your people you really don't want to piss him off that that's actually the argument against what Trump did the argument against it is like whoa I know he's an international terrorist and I know he's killing Americans by the hundreds and he's trying to kill more but if you attack you're really gonna piss him off that's the other that's the counter-argument you're gonna piss off a terrorist cuz I'm almost positive that guy had a reason to kill people anyway all right let me let me put my spin on it are you ready I always talk about with filters I will now give you the Dilbert filter on this Iranian situation now the Dilbert a filter goes like this everyone has a boss that's pretty much a summary of it everyone has a boss and there's not that much difference from one situation to another where you have a boss and a subordinate there are there a number of universal truths that just simply happen out of a boss the subordinate situation and let me ask you this do you think Salamone was a very loyal general and he supported his supreme leader in all things and all he wanted to do was serve his leader do you think that's does that accurately describe general Soleimani do you think he was totally just a loyal subordinate well maybe can't rule it out but let me put the Dilbert filter on this everybody hates their boss everybody thinks they could do a better job imagine you're come any you're the supreme leader and one of your subordinates who happens to be this general is becoming more popular every year while you are becoming less popular every year you see where I'm going do you see it yet so commedy the supreme leader is getting blamed for the economy and getting blamed for whatever bad stuffs happening in Iran his own population is is protesting the general is just getting more popular every day because he's doing things that seem to be popular in Iran and seems to me like he's he was winning what would you think if you were the supreme leader and you were getting less popular every day and there was one of your subordinates who was getting more popular every day what would that make you feel like now do you think there's Saleh many based on what you know about him so far somebody says Big Time mind-reading this is speculation right if I said it's true that would be mind-reading but we're in purely speculative territory here do you think this although many was the kind of guy who was going to be happy being the number two guy forever did he seem like he was sort of a alpha personality but not totally oh yeah I'm like the baddest-ass general there's ever been but I'm gonna do whatever the bearded guy with the holy book tells me to do maybe maybe he wants he might have been a dedicated you know servant of the Republic and he may have actually wanted to be number two forever but is it likely is it likely he wanted to be the number two guy so let me ask you this what would you do if you were the supreme leader or part of his inner circle and you had a threat from within at the same time you had a threat from without let's say hypothetically just speculating here all right there's just speculation folks thought experiment let's say hypothetically that the Supreme Leader of Iran actually kind of wanted peace what if he wanted peace do you think that the supreme leader could have made peace as long as this general was still alive maybe probably not so here's here's the thing you have to ask yourself all right let me put this in the form of a thought experiment all right I'm gonna simplify this for you there are two people in a room doors closed so they're just sealed in a room all right just two people one of them has a Koran that's all he has he has his clothes and he has a Koran the other one has his clothes and a gun all right one has a Koran one has a gun they're the only ones in the room who's in charge who's the supreme leader of the room the one with the Bible or the Koran or the one with the gun there's nobody else in there the answer is whoever the guy with the gun wants to be in charge so if the guy with the gun wants the guy with the Quran to be in charge well then the guy with the Koran is in charge if the guy with the gun wants to be in charge himself he's in charge he's got the gun so let me ask you this who was in charge of her and do you think that the supreme leader could have overruled Salah many on a let's say there was an internal coup which way with the the troops go here's my guess my guess is this although many was smart everybody says he was smart and capable so we'll we'll start with the assumption he was very capable and smart Eve Oba smart do you think that for years Sala many has been making sure that the troops that are closest to the capital the ones that are physically around you on Turan do you think that he's made sure that they got better treatment than other people even when the economy was going down I don't know but I'll bet he did I'll bet he did a good job for his troops do you think they're loyal to him or were I'll bet they were so there is here's my conspiracies there are you ready there is a nonzero chance I'm not saying this is true I'm just saying there's a nonzero chance that I haven't seen anybody bring it up that come any the supreme leader or somebody in his closest circle drop the dime on him it could be so remember there's a there's a part of the story that we don't understand which is how did we know which of the three convoys was the real one now it could be we just have good Intel you know it might be nothing more than that maybe we got Intel from somebody on the ground could be that it could be just that most likely it's just that but there's at least one possibility that the Iranian government itself wanted this guy dead for their own purposes so so just I'm just putting that in the mix President Trump tweeted a two-parter tweet and the second part he said while Iran will never be able to properly admit it Salah many was both hated and feared within the country do you hear that that's what President Trump decided to tweet in one of his first you know it was among the first things he said on the topic and he said they Solomon he was both hated and feared within the country you feel the little bit of a hint a suggestion that may be feared within the country might not be just the public he might have been feared by the government itself and if they weren't afraid of him what was wrong with him if you were if you were the supreme leader wouldn't you be afraid of this guy I'd be very afraid of this guy didn't look like he had any limitations on what he was willing to do then look at what President rouhani of Iran said and let me ask you does this seem like Iran is phoning in the response so what you should look for is if Iran is is genuinely offended to the point of war or you know Jen they're having a genuine reaction to it you would expect to see something unusual you know really really hyper what's the best word you expect to see a big reaction here's President rouhani's reaction to the United States killing the top General into their country the great nation of Iran will take revenge that's it I could have written this tweet a week before the event yeah you know Iran we don't like it we're gonna take some revenge is this the most generic and emotion free response you've ever seen we just killed their top General and the president of Rann says the great nation of Iran will take revenge it's completely empty he phoned it in so you've got two hints here that are hinting in the same direction Trump is hinting when he says Solomon he was both hated and feared within the country that this isn't as obvious the situation as you thought it was the Solomon he might not have a lot of love and we don't know who it is who doesn't love him but we have to ask is it the public or is it the leadership if it's like every other big corporation in the world there were factions we should assume that there was somebody yeah don't don't you think there's a hundred percent chance that within the Iranian you know inner circle at the top don't you think there's a hundred percent chance that somebody in that circle we're saying maybe we got to get rid of this guy let me ask you this if if we tried to make a peace agreement with Iran could we do it while Solomon he was still alive all betting no because what would solve any you know his interest seems to be war and expansion and you know taking over the whole region or controlling it or dominating it or something but I can't imagine the Supreme Leader even being able to have a serious conversation about peace while that general was still alive so think about it it might be that Iran Israel and the United States are all on the same page but what President Trump said and I quote while Iran will never be able to properly admit it that's the actual language from the president while Iran will never be able to properly admit it so many was both hated and feared within the country he's signaling that the Iranian reaction to it might not be exactly on the surface what it looks like it's just thing now I've told you before that there's an interesting thing about being close to war so all the smart people are saying that we're a closer to war with Iran or or that were actually at war because it's an act of war but remember being close to war and being close to peace look exactly the same when things are the darkest that's when you can get something done because nobody wants to go into the darkness if you're right on that if you're both right in the edge of darkness that's when you get serious about okay we don't really want to get into this darkness Iran doesn't really want a shooting war we definitely don't want to shoot anymore so if nobody wants a war and you're on their precipice of war well it's a very focusing situation so I'm gonna say something that nobody I don't think anybody said yet we're closer to peace with Iran than we've ever been we're also closer to war than we've ever been which is a weird situation so there's no doubt that this makes things more dangerous certainly in the short run maybe even the long run but it also shipped the box because remember our the last condition the situation that existed a week ago was impossible to get peace would you agree with the following proposition a week ago the way the variables were were holding up there was no way to get a peace deal with those variables true or false would you not agree there really wasn't any path to just talking it out there wasn't now this guy's gone is there still zero chance of being able to talk it out I don't know I don't know this might have shaken the box enough so it depends what people are thinking in Iran what they're thinking in Iraq and we don't know that we know it's going to be all over the board there's gonna be people on every side of everything but it's possible that we're closer to peace and here's here's what I say in all these situations if the variables that you used to have can't get you there what do you do Trump always does the same thing it's the same move in every situation when the variables are not conducive to victory he shakes the box and he makes sure that the variables change and then when he's done shaking he looks at him again he says all right how about now and if that still isn't good enough he's gonna shake the box again so you might see some more shaken but so one of the questions that people are asking all all the smart people is what's his strategy what is Trump's strategy now I am somewhat famous for writing the strategy is what you say when you don't know anything so or let me put it a different way the people who are crying there's no strategy to this what's our strategy they're the weakest thinkers in the game strategy isn't really a thing all right people like to think that there's a strategy but it has more to do with their their mental comfort of why things are the way they are the truth is that every day we make a decision today that is independent of anything you've done before in other words everything that you've thought about or decided yesterday is always a sunk cost every day you wake up and you say based on the variables today what should we do today for our greater good and because the variables every day are changing it wouldn't make a lot of sense to have some overall strategy that was immune to the situation changing in the real world people do what they can do as the situation presents itself and then after the fact smart people say well it look like a strategy you know strategy is often a high insight where you know you go into the future and you look back and you go well I guess the strategy was to you know do this or that the truth is we make decisions as we go and that's the only way to do it it wouldn't it wouldn't make sense to have some kind of strategy that isn't going to change if the variables are changing and the variables are changing I mean this change is a big variable but let me tell you a few of the things this accomplishes so this is different than saying it's a strategy I'm going to say there are several things several things this accomplishes and that they're good so if you do something that accomplishes several good things is that a strategy well you don't need to put a word on it it's just we saw an opportunity to do several good things here's some of them one of them is it reinforces Trump's unpredictability you've heard Trump talk about it all the time I'm going to be unpredictable I am intentionally unpredictable I'm using unpredictability as a tool watch me be unpredictable and watch how well this works I mean Trump has told this as directly as you can say anything and now we're watching the situation and we saw that he didn't he didn't attack at least in a kinetic way after Saudi Arabia's oil refiners would take it out he did not attack and kill a lot of people when Iran took out a drone so so then Iran is thinking oh he's not going to get tough then he kills their top General what does what does Iran think about their ability to predict Trump now I guarantee that Iran is saying we have no frickin idea what this guy's gonna do next that's exactly what Trump wants wants them to feel like right so the first thing he accomplished was he reinforced unpredictability as an asset that we have in other words Iran you cannot depend on us reacting in a in a way that you think will react our our range of reactions is infinite so you have to take your chances and that's scarier for them so that's good here's the other thing it reinforces however far Iran is willing to go we will go further how important is that we so Trump is beginning to establish the principle that no matter what they do we're gonna take it a little further yeah and I would imagine that if they respond so most people are thinking that Iran just sort of has to respond so listen I and by the way I disagree with that I think it's more likely they'll respond then not respond especially since all of the the surrogates are sort of sie autonomous but they don't have to respond they really don't I mean they do have a choice but most of the experts are saying they will what will happen when they respond well Lindsey Graham has made a pretty clear indication of what will happen so Lindsey Graham has said you know their oil refineries are basically next other people have said you know if they if they were to mine the you know mine the waters around Iran if they were to interfere with international shipping other people have said yes in the comments here sink the Navy we could sink the entire Iranian Navy and what would it take an afternoon so I think that Lindsey Graham and others have created the expectation that we will always go further and that the next thing you do to us is at the expense of your entire economy and all of your oil refineries and or maybe both the loss of your entire Navy so that's productive isn't it productive to set the pattern that whatever you do we're gonna do more of course this another thing it does is that it pecks away at Iran we're in a war we're sort of in this long-term war of attrition with Iran so Iran is trying to make it harder and harder for us and and more painful for us to stay in the region meanwhile President Trump has been pecking away at Iran's economy and ability to do things so this is one more Peck in a strategy of infinite pecking and it's a really big Peck so this perfectly fits our strategy of putting more pressure on them over time it puts this certainly tells that story it also might slow down the slow picking away that Iran is doing on us and that's good right so we've just said yeah you can you can cause some pain and death to our people or contractors or military in the area but if you do it's gonna hurt you more than it hurts us so that's productive to put that sign in that line in the sand now the administration is saying that the purpose of this was to deter future attacks does Solomon he was planning future attacks well I'm pretty sure the number two guy could play on a future attack you know I doubt I kind of doubt that they don't have the ability and will to do future attacks but maybe you know I I certainly wouldn't Bank on deterring anything but it's not impossible all right the other thing that this did is it puts Iranian influence in Iraq on trial remember I told you that what Trump is really good at is focusing attention where it helps him the most in this case where helps the country the most don't you think that Iraq should be having a much bigger let's say that they should be a lot more concerned about Iranian influence in their country what do the the typical Iraqi citizens think of Iran dominating their country what it let me put you in the head of an Iraqi you're an Iraqi citizen you're not in the government you're just a citizen of Iraq and you heard that Arab landed their top General in your country to cause some trouble what imagine that you're an Iraqi citizen and you found out that that the top General of Iran a country that you have no love for you know remember it wasn't that long ago that Iraq and ran well that war and it was a bad war you have no love for them and they could land their top General at your main airport your own government now let me get this straight I'm an Iraqi citizen and I'm watching the news or like wait a minute let me get this straight are you saying that my own government the Iraqi government is letting the general from an enemy country you know trying to friends but sort of enemies and they can just land in our country so he can organize criminal activity in our country and somebody and another country killed him when he came here do I mind do I mind so I think the other thing that this does is it it focuses the question for the Iraqi citizens what the hell is Iran doing in your country because a lot of this has been like a slow progress of Iran gaining influence over time but I think this calls it to the question Iraq you know what was I do you want to be on do you want to be dominated by the Iranians if not maybe you're happy about this I've said before that this might have removed the primary obstacle to peace I don't have a way of knowing this but this is just an understanding of big organizations in a big organization it is not uncommon that the top people disagree in fact I would say it's pretty common right it's very common for the top inner circle to have some you know factions and disagreement could it be the Salah many was one of the main obstacles to Iran getting serious about some kind of a lasting peace deal totally possible would it be possible that the United States is aware of the internal thoughts and Iran and within the leadership totally possible you know who you don't have the smartest comment about this every time sleepy Joe does something good I'm gonna mention it I don't think he should be President but I don't think you can ignore when when somebody you know on the team you don't want to win you can't ignore when they do good stuff they make a good play they they play things right so Biden actually and button actually did a pretty pretty good job and responding to this and here's what he said so Biden said you're basically complained that the president didn't get enough I don't buy in or it made things more dangerous so there's a generic complaints that the something bad might happen and remember the Democrats mostly focus on imaginary problems and imaginary future problems so Biden takes the Democrat view oh this will create unspecified future imaginary problems that sort of their entire attack is future imaginary problems so he does that but here's the small thing he did he says directly I'm not privy to the intelligence but you know here's what I think now the statement I'm not privy to the intelligence tells you what it tells you that Joe Biden has been on the other side of the curtain and Joe Biden knows what a lot of people don't know which is that the story of the theme that the public hears and even the other candidates hear is not necessarily the full story Biden is signaling by saying I'm not privy to the intelligence that he believes there's enough of a chance that it was worth mentioning that there's something going on that we don't fully understand one of those things that could be going on that we don't fully understand this Solomon II was as big a problem to the Iranian leadership as he was to us I'm not saying that's true I'm just saying that the possibility fits the evidence says we've seen it all right the the other thing that this does is it's a momentum changer it seemed to me that the momentum in Iraq was that Iran was was pecking at us and and there hadn't been much response so the way the human mind works is that were far more influenced by the direction of things than where things are where things are just wasn't as important as the fact that things were getting worse and it looked like Iran was winning if you can call it that this changed the momentum this completely eliminates whatever that they whatever they think they've accomplished and reverses it they are now clearly behind and and in reversing direction is the important thing not even where you are all right so that's good now I'm still talking about all the things that were benefited by this without calling it a strategy it's just a bunch of benefit you get there are risks as well of course risk of greater violence but there are benefits all right here's another Tinker Bell just tweeted this and I thought it was a great point you can lose sometimes you can lose sight of context when you're looking at the details how how awesome is it that we just we just entered a war and that's not the awesome part entering wars not awesome how awesome is it that the first casualty of the war was a senior citizen now I don't know how old Salome was but it was at least over 50 so you've got a senior citizen Trump killing another senior citizen and we call that a war somebody's saying this uh lament it was 61 senior citizen traditionally you're used to war being something where the senior citizens send the 20-somethings off to die that's what we've always called war before in the age of Trump war is economic war and I'm gonna kill your senior citizens who caused this problem I'm not going to send my 20 year olds unless I have to if I have to I'm going to send them but let's let's handle this senior citizens the senior citizen now I don't know that this is a trend or anything but isn't it kind of refreshing that the senior citizens who are in charge are just killing each other you know in this case it's good that you know we did the killer so that's some context all right let's talk about how effective we think this will be now one of the things people are saying is that this character so many was unique so was Salomon e unique was he unique in the sense that he can't be replaced do you think that have you ever had experience in a big company in which there was somebody you thought couldn't be replaced and then they quit what happened when the person who couldn't be replaced quit nothing nothing you've had that experience right the irreplaceable person leaves and it didn't make as much difference as you thought didn't make much difference so will the quality of work go down in the the terrorists uranium troublemaking world maybe but probably not I don't think you could depend on it but it is true that there are people who are singularly capable he might have been one of those you know it's not like it's not like working for IBM where you know the the irreplaceable person is a second-line manager you know it's a lot easier to find a second-line manager but this guy might have been special he might have been special in a few different ways one of them might be his connections so he might have good relationships with a lot of people if you replace him with somebody who doesn't have those same relationships and I would think relationships are you know 80% of the game over there if he doesn't have those relationships maybe that person is less effective I've always thought that killing the killing terrorist leaders starting from the top and working your way down as they as they replace the leader it has to lower the average IQ and the leader doesn't it doesn't seem likely that if the top guys are genius well maybe the first one who replaces them is pretty bright too but what about the fourth the fifth one do you know do they do all these terrorist organizations do they have a fifth guy who's as good as the top guy because you know the first one or two maybe the first three are gonna be really good but you very quickly leaves the talent zone and get into the average soon it's possible this guy was special and taking him out makes a difference I like also that this sends a message that you can't make us leave anywhere by by picking at us this sends a very clear message that the decision to be in Iraq or not be in Iraq it's gonna be made by Trump there's nobody else who gets to say in the decision this this reinforces that mess right because before you can send you said to yourself well you know they're gonna cause so much pain that I guess Trump will be sort of forced to leave because we don't want to you know lose a service person every every few weeks it's going to be unbearable but I think you just change that and you just said all right let's let's at least establish whose decision it is it's mine I'm gonna kill your general so it's my decision if I leave one of the things you're going to see is Tulsi Gabbard getting a lot of attention you've already seen her probably on the news so Tulsi gabbard's message fits perfectly with you know what's happening in the world so she's famous for the don't get involved don't escalate and she's pointing out that this escalation could be dangerous she is right it could be dangerous Dilbert great analysis yeah you know ninety-nine point nine percent of all the people who are going to be talking about this Iranian situation are unqualified to do so and I'm certainly no exception but the one there are some Universal things that I think are worth considering and and one is that this guy was as much a problem to Iran as he was to us so I think you have to at least put that in the mix as a good possibility Tucker Carlson doesn't like it somebody says well I don't think we've heard from him yet he's probably still on vacation but I think you're probably right does it feel like you don't want to talk about any other topic have you noticed that this topic just wiped it wipes the board clear of other topics I mean I don't care about the presidential raise I don't care about the impeachment kind of suddenly I don't care about any of it it just focuses cuz this is such a big deal but I'm gonna talk about a few other things anyway did you see the photo I had tweeted around of Mike Bloomberg standing on a subway and he's reading a paper he's just standing there and he tweets that he stands on the subway like it's it's gonna be some I'm a man of the people thing similar to his tweet about the cubicles and there were so many persuasion mistakes in that I tweeted it and ask people to spot them all and that people spotted even more than I saw but here's the thing you don't want pictures of your leaders looking not like leaders if you're running for president I just think he's completely misreading the mood of the public you know we don't mind if our mayor is casual you might even you might even be okay with your governor being a little casual but I think it's a complete misreading of the American mind and also a misreading of what's important I think is I think we want a president who looks like a president I think we wanted Trump because he wore a suit every day and he arrived even as a candidate he arrived on a jet with it looked like Air Force One Trump played the part of a president from day one my Bloomberg is trying to do this man of the people stuff and I'm thinking well that's great you know we love that you're a man of the people you know in fact by the way I have positive feelings about Mike Bloomberg he's brilliant I think he means well I think he wants what's best for the country I very positive thoughts about him but he's so completely wrong about what I think my opinion about what the citizens want from a president the president is a is not just an employee's also a style preference he is he's our you know the mascot he's the he's the face he's the brand and I don't think people want that casual so there's a cult expert named Steven Hassan who has been writing books and doing interviews and stuff talking about how Trump supporters are a cult now he used to be in a cult and he escaped the cult and now he writes about people who have been brainwashed by cults and so he says based on his expertise and research that Trump supporters are like a cult and and he tweeted this in support of that theory he says when you look at every characteristic on this chart so it was a chart of cult behaviors and then add that Trump thinks he's above the law very cult leader like and then he lies and Cecily also very cult leader like the answer is clear Trump is acting like a cult leader Americans are being manipulated so here's the central claim I'll read it again he says Trump thinks he's above the law so it's a cult expert telling you that he can read Trump's mind and that when he reads Trump's mind inside there there's something that says he's above the law based on what have we seen any evidence that he thinks he's above the law now now you've seen evidence of every human you've ever met that they'd like to maybe you know weasel around the law you've seen people who wish they didn't get caught you've seen people do all kinds of stuff but in the entire history of people unless somebody is actually claiming to be descended from a god is there anybody who's a leader who's claiming they're above the law it's not even a thing it's just not even a thing so cult expert mm-hmm I would say that the cult expert is in a cult and that he left one cult and went into another and it could be and the new cult is the anti cult so it's a cult expert who escaped a cult became an expert on cults and joined another cult doesn't know it and he's writing publicly that other people are in the cult because they're not in the same group he's in and doesn't realize he's in a cult so that's ironic New York Times had an article about how there's more depression and suicide since Trump came into office many problems with this one is that how do you know how much depression and suicide there would have been if somebody else had one I mean I'm willing to believe it's more likely that the Trump administration has caused more depression and suicide than normal I'm totally willing to believe that's I mean that's it passes the sniff test you know you you can observe people very upset about his administration so what surprised me if it's true that there's more depression in suicide than there's some Trump related thing but here's the problem the New York Times assigns the blame if you will to Trump and his supporters I don't know if they say it directly but that's the implication if it's true that the Trump administration is is a cause we'll say it's one of the variables as part of the cause of people's greater depression and anxiety and suicide is that the whole story because the way I see the word it's the press's treatment of the administration that's causing the mental illness and that's a big difference and here's the here's the thought experiment I use all the time and it works well imagine if you will if the press simply reported what Trump says and does without any opinion and let the public form their own opinions based on just well here's what he does here's what he said would there be massive depression and suicide I believe not there would not be a chance of that there isn't the slightest chance that if the news simply said what he does and what he says here's the tweet make up your own mind I don't think the public would even be a little bit concerned almost close to a hundred percent I would say of how we feel about it is opinions that have been assigned to us by our preferred media silos and the press has decided to assign an opinion of great risk and harm and and fear and the Republic is about to end none of that comes from Trump if you simply reported what Trump says it does it would be trouble saying you know the economy is great what would be your opinion to that suppose you're a person who doesn't know much about the economy and the news simply reports that Trump tweeted that unemployment's a new record and the stock market's up and wages are up what would be your opinion well I think it would just be positive right but what is your current opinion if you watch CNN or MSNBC they say well you know these things would have happened anyway we're probably at the edge of a depression and then suddenly you think maybe the economy is not so good what would you think about you know the the Charlottesville hoax if the media had simply reported what Trump said in Charlottesville with no opinion that a dog what would the public think about it well they would have looked at what he said and what he said was I condemned totally the racists the white nationalist and the neo-nazi he's in trouble that's what he said he said it in those direct words would the public have interpreted the statement I condemn them totally as being supportive of them would that have been lean the public's reaction to that I don't think so I think they only have that that reason that impression because the news hypnotized them into it all right so we will keep looking at the at the Iranian situation the only thing I had to add today if anybody's coming in late is that don't be surprised if Solomon II was the variable that was preventing peace and now he's been removed and don't be surprised if the Supreme Leader of Iran is not so sad that his greatest domestic rival is gone so this might turn out this might turn out positively but I don't want to get too optimistic about this begins the there's a high likelihood they'll be more danger before things improve all right yeah why was he in Baghdad I think everybody believes he was in Baghdad to cause trouble so I would also suggest that the president's timing on this because there's gonna be a lot of questions about you know why now etc well I think that why now is that we had a good shot so that's the first part of why now so you can't you can't kill somebody until you have an opportunity to kill them and they obviously had an opportunity secondly it's sort of a perfect time to do it because of the embassy thing etc and and domestically it's kind of perfect too now I hate to you and say that because it's so icky but you know the Democrats are gonna say that Trump is only doing this because of the impeachment I don't think he's only doing this because of impeachment but it's really good timing so I don't think that the impeachment talked him out of it it may have talked him into it yeah so in my book and my book loser think I have a section which I talk about anybody who says why didn't you do it sooner is an unproductive participant because everything could be done sooner and nobody really can answer that well sometimes there's something specific but most of the time there was something you could have done to do it sooner so that that's the the people were bad at analyzing always say that well why didn't you do it sooner that's the lowest level of commentary Iran may be related to Strock page so people think that Iran might have some relationship to our domestic situation I don't know probably not somebody says we've killed every dictator we made a deal with in the past well yeah so some of you were asking about how this will affect in North Korea the Kim definitely has something to worry about but I also think that North Korea is a completely different situation because they're not actively killing Americans if North Korea doesn't kill Americans we're not going to kill him I just don't think there's any chance I mean you could argue that warmbier was an American who got killed but my take on that is that that to do with the local jailers I mean I doubt Kim jong-un ordered him to be killed or beaten to death I just it just seems unlikely not impossible but unlikely do I have a long-term prediction on North Korea yes I believe that they will morph into an ally now it might be a weird kind of frenemy Ally the you don't trust doesn't join NATO but I think we're going to convert Nate North Korea into our side here's why I say that we live in a time where the strongest players we should recruit to our side North Korea is a strong player militarily and when there are strong players military militarily wouldn't you rather have money your side we can't get China on our side apparently but we can certainly you know move North Korea closer to our realm and that would be enough so my guess is that North Korea will not denuclearize but I think there's a high likelihood I'll put it in the 80% range a high likelihood that someday within the next 10 or 20 years North Korea will be is so non interested in the United States and we would be non interested in them because that's the best place to get right where you want to get with North Korea is mutual non-interest that they're not interested in attacking us we're not interested in attacking that but it's not interested so I think that's where we'll get to and maybe some investment all right that's all for now I will talk to you all later

uncle papa

hey everybody come on in here well it

turns out that 2020 is starting off with

a bang we got a lot to talk about

do you know do you remember impeachment

impeachment is so last year what was

that all about

I'm having trouble remembering it what

was it in Pietschmann again and why was

it was it about some paperwork or

something don't even remember but today

we'll have a very special simultaneous

up no today will not be a normal

simultaneous simple it's a special one

so today we're going to have a

simultaneous it for our men and women in

uniform who have protected us so well so

far and we're active in Iran

well actually active in Iraq and this

time we're going to drink to them so

this will be your very special

simultaneous tip for the military as a

thank you and show respect

get ready 1 2 3

uh-huh special military simultaneous up

it was as good as I thought it would be

quite good quite good

all right well apparently it was an

amazing military operation we're gonna

hear a lot more about it probably in the

coming days and weeks but so

congratulations to our military I'm

amazed how well that went

now we might find out later it was

messier than we think but at the moment

it looks like we could follow a specific

individual we could target him from a

drone and we could take out his car from

the air and you know of course we've

been able to do that for a while but

every time we do it I say to myself is

is ground war just obsolete I'm starting

to think ground wars just don't make any

sense anymore we can do stuff like that

is it my imagination of course we're

gonna be talking about the killing of

Solomon Solomon II Ptolemy I don't know

how to pronounce his name but I don't

feel like I have to try too hard either

is it my imagination or does he have

evil eyes now when I say he has evil

eyes I think his eyes are actually

spread across you know about an acre but

before he was killed did he see the

pictures of him he had the most evil

looking eyes I've ever seen on a human

being part of his because he had that

sort of salt and pepper of gray hair but

those eyebrows were black so he had like

these dark flower evil terrorist eyes

now if you don't think that matters

you're wrong because if he looked like a

nice guy I think it would could make a

little bit of difference I'm not a big

difference but it make a difference

so Trump tweeted a American flag last

night was which was kind of perfect

because he was just reminding the

country they were all on the same team

and things could get a little ugly I

will remind you that we're in the fog of

war

so the first first two days you're

likely to hear incorrect reporting now

we're probably it's probably true that

we killed Solomon II the general but

don't be surprised if we find out new

facts about the whole situation that

completely changes how you think about

it

so if it's like every other situation

you're gonna have some surprises in the

next few days but before we get to my my

own theories about this I would like to

read for you some celebrity tweets on

the topic now a lot of you said to

yourselves hey there's a big

international story I better turn on CNN

and I've got a listen to Fox News

I'd better catch up but you're not

really fully caught up until you've

heard the drunk tweets of celebrities on

this topic and so I'd like to read two

tweets one from actor John Cusack and

one from actress Rose McGowan now I'm

reading the tweet and it's got

punctuation that's all over the place

and he spelled the word until with two

L's at the end and I'm feeling like

maybe he had a drink

but this is the way I read his tweet

Trump in full fashion mode 101 mode

steal and lie until there's nothing left

and started war

he's so hideous he doesn't know he just

attacked around that's not like anywhere

else and then Rose McGowan dear hashtag

around the USA has disrespected your

country your flag our ball 52% of us

humbly apologize we walk is with

irritation we are being held hostage by

a terrorist we do not know how to escape

please please do not kill us hashtag

solemn Eddie see now I feel like you're

up to date a lot of people a lot of

people haven't caught up with the drunk

tweets yet but now you have

so I'm looking at some of the complaints

and the funniest complaints are the ones

that go like this if somebody is a

terrorist and he's killing your people

you really don't want to piss him off

that that's actually the argument

against what Trump did the argument

against it is like whoa I know he's an

international terrorist and I know he's

killing Americans by the hundreds and

he's trying to kill more but if you

attack

you're really gonna piss him off that's

the other that's the counter-argument

you're gonna piss off a terrorist

cuz I'm almost positive that guy had a

reason to kill people anyway all right

let me let me put my spin on it are you

ready I always talk about with filters I

will now give you the Dilbert filter on

this Iranian situation now the Dilbert a

filter goes like this everyone has a

boss that's pretty much a summary of it

everyone has a boss and there's not that

much difference from one situation to

another where you have a boss and a

subordinate there are there a number of

universal truths that just simply happen

out of a boss the subordinate situation

and let me ask you this do you think

Salamone was a very loyal general and he

supported his supreme leader in all

things and all he wanted to do was serve

his leader do you think that's does that

accurately describe general Soleimani

do you think he was totally just a loyal

subordinate well maybe can't rule it out

but let me put the Dilbert filter on

this everybody hates their boss

everybody thinks they could do a better

job

imagine you're come any you're the

supreme leader and one of your

subordinates

who happens to be this general is

becoming more popular every year while

you are becoming less popular every year

you see where I'm going

do you see it yet so commedy

the supreme leader is getting blamed for

the economy and getting blamed for

whatever bad stuffs happening in Iran

his own population is is protesting the

general is just getting more popular

every day because he's doing things that

seem to be popular in Iran and seems to

me like he's he was winning what would

you think if you were the supreme leader

and you were getting less popular every

day and there was one of your

subordinates who was getting more

popular every day what would that make

you feel like now do you think there's

Saleh many based on what you know about

him so far somebody says Big Time

mind-reading this is speculation right

if I said it's true that would be

mind-reading but we're in purely

speculative territory here do you think

this although many was the kind of guy

who was going to be happy being the

number two guy forever

did he seem like he was sort of a alpha

personality but not totally oh yeah I'm

like the baddest-ass general there's

ever been but I'm gonna do whatever the

bearded guy with the holy book tells me

to do maybe maybe he wants he might have

been a dedicated you know servant of the

Republic and he may have actually wanted

to be number two forever but is it

likely is it likely he wanted to be the

number two guy

so let me ask you this what would you do

if you were the supreme leader or part

of his inner circle and you had a threat

from within at the same time you had a

threat from without let's say

hypothetically just speculating here all

right there's just speculation folks

thought experiment let's say

hypothetically that the Supreme Leader

of Iran actually kind of wanted peace

what if he wanted peace do you think

that the supreme leader could have made

peace as long as this general was still

alive maybe probably not so here's

here's the thing you have to ask

yourself all right let me put this in

the form of a thought experiment all

right I'm gonna simplify this for you

there are two people in a room doors

closed so they're just sealed in a room

all right just two people one of them

has a Koran that's all he has he has his

clothes and he has a Koran the other one

has his clothes and a gun all right one

has a Koran one has a gun they're the

only ones in the room who's in charge

who's the supreme leader of the room the

one with the Bible or the Koran or the

one with the gun there's nobody else in

there the answer is whoever the guy with

the gun wants to be in charge so if the

guy with the gun wants the guy with the

Quran to be in charge well then the guy

with the Koran is in charge if the guy

with the gun wants to be in charge

himself he's in charge he's got the gun

so let me ask you this who was in charge

of her and do you think that the supreme

leader could have overruled Salah many

on a let's say there was an internal

coup which way with the the troops go

here's my guess

my guess is this although many was smart

everybody says he was smart and capable

so we'll we'll start with the assumption

he was very capable and smart Eve Oba

smart do you think that for years

Sala many has been making sure that the

troops that are closest to the capital

the ones that are physically around you

on Turan do you think that he's made

sure that they got better treatment than

other people even when the economy was

going down I don't know but I'll bet he

did I'll bet he did a good job for his

troops do you think they're loyal to him

or were I'll bet they were so there is

here's my conspiracies there are you

ready there is a nonzero chance I'm not

saying this is true I'm just saying

there's a nonzero chance that I haven't

seen anybody bring it up that come any

the supreme leader or somebody in his

closest circle drop the dime on him it

could be so remember there's a there's a

part of the story that we don't

understand which is how did we know

which of the three convoys was the real

one now it could be we just have good

Intel you know it might be nothing more

than that

maybe we got Intel from somebody on the

ground could be that it could be just

that most likely it's just that but

there's at least one possibility that

the Iranian government itself wanted

this guy dead for their own purposes so

so just I'm just putting that in the mix

President Trump tweeted a two-parter

tweet and the second part he said while

Iran will never be able to properly

admit it Salah many was both hated and

feared within the country do you hear

that that's what President Trump decided

to tweet in one of his first you know it

was among the first things he said on

the topic and he said they Solomon he

was both hated and feared within the

country you feel the little bit of a

hint a suggestion

that may be feared within the country

might not be just the public he might

have been feared by the government

itself and if they weren't afraid of him

what was wrong with him if you were if

you were the supreme leader wouldn't you

be afraid of this guy I'd be very afraid

of this guy didn't look like he had any

limitations on what he was willing to do

then look at what President rouhani of

Iran said and let me ask you does this

seem like Iran is phoning in the

response so what you should look for is

if Iran is is genuinely offended to the

point of war or you know Jen they're

having a genuine reaction to it you

would expect to see something unusual

you know really really hyper what's the

best word you expect to see a big

reaction here's President rouhani's

reaction to the United States killing

the top General into their country the

great nation of Iran will take revenge

that's it

I could have written this tweet a week

before the event yeah you know Iran we

don't like it we're gonna take some

revenge is this the most generic and

emotion free response you've ever seen

we just killed their top General and the

president of Rann says the great nation

of Iran will take revenge it's

completely empty he phoned it in so

you've got two hints here that are

hinting in the same direction

Trump is hinting when he says Solomon he

was both hated and feared within the

country that this isn't as obvious the

situation as you thought it was the

Solomon he might not have a lot of love

and we don't know who it is who doesn't

love him but we have to ask is it the

public or is it the leadership if it's

like every other big

corporation in the world there were

factions we should assume that there was

somebody yeah don't don't you think

there's a hundred percent chance that

within the Iranian you know inner circle

at the top don't you think there's a

hundred percent chance that somebody in

that circle we're saying maybe we got to

get rid of this guy let me ask you this

if if we tried to make a peace agreement

with Iran could we do it while Solomon

he was still alive all betting no

because what would solve any you know

his interest seems to be war and

expansion and you know taking over the

whole region or controlling it or

dominating it or something but I can't

imagine the Supreme Leader even being

able to have a serious conversation

about peace while that general was still

alive so think about it it might be that

Iran Israel and the United States are

all on the same page but what President

Trump said and I quote while Iran will

never be able to properly admit it

that's the actual language from the

president while Iran will never be able

to properly admit it so many was both

hated and feared within the country he's

signaling that the Iranian reaction to

it might not be exactly on the surface

what it looks like

it's just thing now I've told you before

that there's an interesting thing about

being close to war so all the smart

people are saying that we're a closer to

war with Iran or or that were actually

at war because it's an act of war but

remember being close to war and being

close to peace look exactly the same

when things are the darkest that's when

you can get something done because

nobody wants to go into the darkness if

you're right on that if you're both

right in the edge of darkness

that's when you get serious about okay

we don't

really want to get into this darkness

Iran doesn't really want a shooting war

we definitely don't want to shoot

anymore so if nobody wants a war and

you're on their precipice of war well

it's a very focusing situation so I'm

gonna say something that nobody I don't

think anybody said yet we're closer to

peace with Iran than we've ever been

we're also closer to war than we've ever

been which is a weird situation so

there's no doubt that this makes things

more dangerous certainly in the short

run maybe even the long run but it also

shipped the box because remember our the

last condition the situation that

existed a week ago was impossible to get

peace would you agree with the following

proposition a week ago the way the

variables were were holding up there was

no way to get a peace deal with those

variables true or false

would you not agree there really wasn't

any path to just talking it out there

wasn't now this guy's gone is there

still zero chance of being able to talk

it out I don't know

I don't know this might have shaken the

box enough so it depends what people are

thinking in Iran what they're thinking

in Iraq and we don't know that we know

it's going to be all over the board

there's gonna be people on every side of

everything but it's possible that we're

closer to peace and here's here's what I

say in all these situations if the

variables that you used to have can't

get you there what do you do

Trump always does the same thing it's

the same move in every situation when

the variables are not conducive to

victory he shakes the box and he makes

sure that the variables change and then

when he's done shaking he looks at him

again he says all right how about now

and if that still isn't good enough he's

gonna shake the box again so you might

see some more shaken but so one of the

questions that people are asking all

all the smart people is what's his

strategy what is Trump's strategy now I

am somewhat famous for writing the

strategy is what you say when you don't

know anything so or let me put it a

different way

the people who are crying there's no

strategy to this what's our strategy

they're the weakest thinkers in the game

strategy isn't really a thing all right

people like to think that there's a

strategy but it has more to do with

their their mental comfort of why things

are the way they are the truth is that

every day we make a decision today that

is independent of anything you've done

before in other words everything that

you've thought about or decided

yesterday is always a sunk cost every

day you wake up and you say based on the

variables today what should we do today

for our greater good and because the

variables every day are changing it

wouldn't make a lot of sense to have

some overall strategy that was immune to

the situation changing in the real world

people do what they can do as the

situation presents itself and then after

the fact

smart people say well it look like a

strategy you know strategy is often a

high insight where you know you go into

the future and you look back and you go

well I guess the strategy was to you

know do this or that the truth is we

make decisions as we go and that's the

only way to do it it wouldn't it

wouldn't make sense to have some kind of

strategy that isn't going to change if

the variables are changing and the

variables are changing I mean this

change is a big variable but let me tell

you a few of the things this

accomplishes so this is different than

saying it's a strategy I'm going to say

there are several things several things

this accomplishes and that they're good

so if you do something that accomplishes

several good things is that a strategy

well you don't need to put a word on it

it's just we saw an opportunity to do

several good things

here's some of them one of them is it

reinforces Trump's unpredictability

you've heard Trump talk about it all the

time I'm going to be unpredictable

I am intentionally unpredictable I'm

using unpredictability as a tool

watch me be unpredictable and watch how

well this works I mean Trump has told

this as directly as you can say anything

and now we're watching the situation and

we saw that he didn't he didn't attack

at least in a kinetic way after Saudi

Arabia's oil refiners would take it out

he did not attack and kill a lot of

people when Iran took out a drone so so

then Iran is thinking oh he's not going

to get tough then he kills their top

General what does what does Iran think

about their ability to predict Trump now

I guarantee that Iran is saying we have

no frickin idea what this guy's gonna do

next that's exactly what Trump wants

wants them to feel like right so the

first thing he accomplished was he

reinforced unpredictability as an asset

that we have in other words Iran you

cannot depend on us reacting in a in a

way that you think will react our our

range of reactions is infinite so you

have to take your chances and that's

scarier for them so that's good here's

the other thing it reinforces however

far Iran is willing to go we will go

further how important is that we so

Trump is beginning to establish the

principle that no matter what they do

we're gonna take it a little further

yeah and I would imagine that if they

respond so most people are thinking that

Iran just sort of has to respond so

listen I and by the way I disagree with

that I think it's more likely they'll

respond then not respond especially

since all of the the surrogates are sort

of sie autonomous but

they don't have to respond they really

don't I mean they do have a choice but

most of the experts are saying they will

what will happen when they respond well

Lindsey Graham has made a pretty clear

indication of what will happen so

Lindsey Graham has said you know their

oil refineries are basically next other

people have said you know if they if

they were to mine the you know mine the

waters around Iran if they were to

interfere with international shipping

other people have said yes in the

comments here sink the Navy we could

sink the entire Iranian Navy and what

would it take an afternoon so I think

that Lindsey Graham and others have

created the expectation that we will

always go further and that the next

thing you do to us is at the expense of

your entire economy and all of your oil

refineries and or maybe both the loss of

your entire Navy so that's productive

isn't it productive to set the pattern

that whatever you do we're gonna do more

of course this another thing it does is

that it pecks away at Iran we're in a

war we're sort of in this long-term war

of attrition with Iran so Iran is trying

to make it harder and harder for us and

and more painful for us to stay in the

region meanwhile President Trump has

been pecking away at Iran's economy and

ability to do things so this is one more

Peck in a strategy of infinite pecking

and it's a really big Peck so this

perfectly fits our strategy of putting

more pressure on them over time it puts

this certainly tells that story it also

might slow down the slow picking away

that Iran is doing on us and that's good

right so we've just said yeah you can

you can cause some pain and death to our

people or contractors or military in the

area but if you do it's gonna hurt you

more than it hurts us

so that's productive to put that sign in

that line in the sand now the

administration is saying that the

purpose of this was to deter future

attacks does Solomon he was planning

future attacks well I'm pretty sure the

number two guy could play on a future

attack

you know I doubt I kind of doubt that

they don't have the ability and will to

do future attacks but maybe you know I I

certainly wouldn't Bank on deterring

anything but it's not impossible

all right the other thing that this did

is it puts Iranian influence in Iraq on

trial remember I told you that what

Trump is really good at is focusing

attention where it helps him the most in

this case where helps the country the

most don't you think that Iraq should be

having a much bigger let's say that they

should be a lot more concerned about

Iranian influence in their country what

do the the typical Iraqi citizens think

of Iran dominating their country what it

let me put you in the head of an Iraqi

you're an Iraqi citizen you're not in

the government you're just a citizen of

Iraq and you heard that Arab landed

their top General in your country to

cause some trouble what imagine that

you're an Iraqi citizen and you found

out that that the top General of Iran a

country that you have no love for you

know remember it wasn't that long ago

that Iraq and ran well that war and it

was a bad war you have no love for them

and they could land their top General at

your main airport your own government

now let me get this straight I'm an

Iraqi citizen and I'm watching the news

or like wait a minute let me get this

straight

are you saying that my own government

the Iraqi government is letting the

general from an enemy country you know

trying to

friends but sort of enemies and they can

just land in our country so he can

organize criminal activity in our

country and somebody and another country

killed him when he came here do I mind

do I mind so I think the other thing

that this does is it it focuses the

question for the Iraqi citizens what the

hell is Iran doing in your country

because a lot of this has been like a

slow progress of Iran gaining influence

over time but I think this calls it to

the question Iraq you know what was I do

you want to be on do you want to be

dominated by the Iranians if not maybe

you're happy about this I've said before

that this might have removed the primary

obstacle to peace I don't have a way of

knowing this but this is just an

understanding of big organizations in a

big organization it is not uncommon that

the top people disagree in fact I would

say it's pretty common right it's very

common for the top inner circle to have

some you know factions and disagreement

could it be the Salah many was one of

the main obstacles to Iran getting

serious about some kind of a lasting

peace deal totally possible would it be

possible that the United States is aware

of the internal thoughts and Iran and

within the leadership totally possible

you know who you don't have the smartest

comment about this every time sleepy Joe

does something good I'm gonna mention it

I don't think he should be President but

I don't think you can ignore when when

somebody you know on the team you don't

want to win

you can't ignore when they do good stuff

they make a good play they they play

things right so Biden actually and

button actually did a pretty pretty good

job and responding to this and here's

what he said so Biden said you're

basically complained that the president

didn't get enough I don't buy in or it

made things more dangerous so there's a

generic complaints that the

something bad might happen and remember

the Democrats mostly focus on imaginary

problems and imaginary future problems

so Biden takes the Democrat view oh this

will create unspecified future imaginary

problems that sort of their entire

attack is future imaginary problems so

he does that but here's the small thing

he did he says directly I'm not privy to

the intelligence but you know here's

what I think now the statement I'm not

privy to the intelligence tells you what

it tells you that Joe Biden has been on

the other side of the curtain and Joe

Biden knows what a lot of people don't

know which is that the story of the

theme that the public hears and even the

other candidates hear is not necessarily

the full story Biden is signaling by

saying I'm not privy to the intelligence

that he believes there's enough of a

chance that it was worth mentioning that

there's something going on that we don't

fully understand one of those things

that could be going on that we don't

fully understand this Solomon II was as

big a problem to the Iranian leadership

as he was to us I'm not saying that's

true I'm just saying that the

possibility fits the evidence says we've

seen it all right the the other thing

that this does is it's a momentum

changer it seemed to me that the

momentum in Iraq was that Iran was was

pecking at us and and there hadn't been

much response so the way the human mind

works is that were far more influenced

by the direction of things than where

things are where things are just wasn't

as important as the fact that things

were getting worse and it looked like

Iran was winning if you can call it that

this changed the momentum this

completely eliminates whatever that they

whatever they think they've accomplished

and reverses it they are now clearly

behind and

and in reversing direction is the

important thing not even where you are

all right so that's good now I'm still

talking about all the things that were

benefited by this without calling it a

strategy it's just a bunch of benefit

you get there are risks as well of

course risk of greater violence but

there are benefits all right here's

another Tinker Bell just tweeted this

and I thought it was a great point you

can lose sometimes you can lose sight of

context when you're looking at the

details how how awesome is it that we

just we just entered a war and that's

not the awesome part entering wars not

awesome how awesome is it that the first

casualty of the war was a senior citizen

now I don't know how old Salome was but

it was at least over 50 so you've got a

senior citizen Trump killing another

senior citizen and we call that a war

somebody's saying this uh lament it was

61 senior citizen traditionally you're

used to war being something where the

senior citizens send the 20-somethings

off to die that's what we've always

called war before in the age of Trump

war is economic war and I'm gonna kill

your senior citizens who caused this

problem I'm not going to send my 20 year

olds unless I have to if I have to I'm

going to send them but let's let's

handle this senior citizens the senior

citizen now I don't know that this is a

trend or anything but isn't it kind of

refreshing that the senior citizens who

are in charge are just killing each

other

you know in this case it's good that you

know we did the killer

so that's some context all right let's

talk about how effective we think this

will be now one of the things people are

saying is that this character so many

was unique

so was Salomon e unique was he unique in

the sense that he can't be replaced do

you think that have you ever had

experience in a big company in which

there was somebody you thought couldn't

be replaced and then they quit what

happened when the person who couldn't be

replaced quit

nothing nothing you've had that

experience right

the irreplaceable person leaves and it

didn't make as much difference as you

thought didn't make much difference so

will the quality of work go down in the

the terrorists uranium troublemaking

world maybe but probably not I don't

think you could depend on it but it is

true that there are people who are

singularly capable he might have been

one of those you know it's not like it's

not like working for IBM where you know

the the irreplaceable person is a

second-line manager you know it's a lot

easier to find a second-line manager but

this guy might have been special he

might have been special in a few

different ways one of them might be his

connections so he might have good

relationships with a lot of people if

you replace him with somebody who

doesn't have those same relationships

and I would think relationships are you

know 80% of the game over there if he

doesn't have those relationships maybe

that person is less effective I've

always thought that killing the killing

terrorist leaders starting from the top

and working your way down as they as

they replace the leader it has to lower

the average IQ and the leader doesn't it

doesn't seem likely that if the top guys

are genius well maybe the first one who

replaces them is pretty bright too

but what about the fourth

the fifth one do you know do they do all

these terrorist organizations do they

have a fifth guy who's as good as the

top guy because you know the first one

or two maybe the first three are gonna

be really good but you very quickly

leaves the talent zone and get into the

average soon it's possible this guy was

special and taking him out makes a

difference I like also that this sends a

message that you can't make us leave

anywhere by by picking at us this sends

a very clear message that the decision

to be in Iraq or not be in Iraq it's

gonna be made by Trump there's nobody

else who gets to say in the decision

this this reinforces that mess right

because before you can send you said to

yourself well you know they're gonna

cause so much pain that I guess Trump

will be sort of forced to leave because

we don't want to you know lose a service

person every every few weeks it's going

to be unbearable but I think you just

change that and you just said all right

let's let's at least establish whose

decision it is it's mine I'm gonna kill

your general so it's my decision if I

leave one of the things you're going to

see is Tulsi Gabbard getting a lot of

attention you've already seen her

probably on the news so Tulsi gabbard's

message fits perfectly with you know

what's happening in the world

so she's famous for the don't get

involved don't escalate and she's

pointing out that this escalation could

be dangerous she is right it could be

dangerous

Dilbert great analysis yeah you know

ninety-nine point nine percent of all

the people who are going to be talking

about this Iranian situation are

unqualified to do so and I'm certainly

no exception but the one there are some

Universal things that I think are worth

considering and and one is that this guy

was as much a problem to Iran as he was

to us so I think you have to at least

put that in the mix

as a good possibility Tucker Carlson

doesn't like it somebody says well I

don't think we've heard from him yet

he's probably still on vacation but I

think you're probably right does it feel

like you don't want to talk about any

other topic have you noticed that this

topic just wiped it wipes the board

clear of other topics I mean I don't

care about the presidential raise I

don't care about the impeachment kind of

suddenly I don't care about any of it it

just focuses cuz this is such a big deal

but I'm gonna talk about a few other

things anyway did you see the photo I

had tweeted around of Mike Bloomberg

standing on a subway and he's reading a

paper he's just standing there and he

tweets that he stands on the subway like

it's it's gonna be some I'm a man of the

people thing similar to his tweet about

the cubicles and there were so many

persuasion mistakes in that I tweeted it

and ask people to spot them all and that

people spotted even more than I saw but

here's the thing you don't want pictures

of your leaders looking not like leaders

if you're running for president I just

think he's completely misreading the

mood of the public you know we don't

mind if our mayor is casual you might

even you might even be okay with your

governor being a little casual but I

think it's a complete misreading of the

American mind and also a misreading of

what's important I think is I think we

want a president who looks like a

president I think we wanted Trump

because he wore a suit every day and he

arrived even as a candidate he arrived

on a jet with it looked like Air Force

One Trump played the part of a president

from day one my Bloomberg is trying to

do this man of the people stuff and I'm

thinking well that's great you know we

love that you're a man of the people you

know in fact by the way

I have positive feelings about Mike

Bloomberg he's brilliant I think he

means well I think he wants what's best

for the country

I very positive thoughts about him but

he's so completely wrong about what I

think my opinion about what the citizens

want from a president the president is a

is not just an employee's also a style

preference he is he's our you know the

mascot he's the he's the face he's the

brand and I don't think people want that

casual so there's a cult expert named

Steven Hassan who has been writing books

and doing interviews and stuff talking

about how Trump supporters are a cult

now he used to be in a cult and he

escaped the cult and now he writes about

people who have been brainwashed by

cults and so he says based on his

expertise and research that Trump

supporters are like a cult and and he

tweeted this in support of that theory

he says when you look at every

characteristic on this chart so it was a

chart of cult behaviors and then add

that Trump thinks he's above the law

very cult leader like and then he lies

and Cecily also very cult leader like

the answer is clear

Trump is acting like a cult leader

Americans are being manipulated so

here's the central claim I'll read it

again he says Trump thinks he's above

the law

so it's a cult expert telling you that

he can read Trump's mind and that when

he reads Trump's mind inside there

there's something that says he's above

the law based on what have we seen any

evidence that he thinks he's above the

law now now you've seen evidence of

every human you've ever met that they'd

like to maybe you know weasel around the

law you've seen people who wish they

didn't get caught

you've seen people do all kinds of stuff

but in the entire history of people

unless somebody is actually claiming to

be descended from a god is there anybody

who's a leader who's claiming they're

above the law it's not even a thing

it's just not even a thing so cult

expert mm-hmm I would say that the cult

expert is in a cult and that he left one

cult and went into another and it could

be and the new cult is the anti cult so

it's a cult expert who escaped a cult

became an expert on cults and joined

another cult doesn't know it and he's

writing publicly that other people are

in the cult because they're not in the

same group he's in and doesn't realize

he's in a cult so that's ironic New York

Times had an article about how there's

more depression and suicide since Trump

came into office many problems with this

one is that how do you know how much

depression and suicide there would have

been if somebody else had one I mean I'm

willing to believe it's more likely that

the Trump administration has caused more

depression and suicide than normal I'm

totally willing to believe that's I mean

that's it passes the sniff test you know

you you can observe people very upset

about his administration so what

surprised me if it's true that there's

more depression in suicide than there's

some Trump related thing but here's the

problem

the New York Times assigns the blame if

you will to Trump and his supporters I

don't know if they say it directly but

that's the implication if it's true that

the Trump administration is is a cause

we'll say it's one of the variables as

part of the cause of people's greater

depression and anxiety and suicide is

that the whole story because the way I

see the word

it's the press's treatment of the

administration that's causing the mental

illness and that's a big difference and

here's the here's the thought experiment

I use all the time and it works well

imagine if you will if the press simply

reported what Trump says and does

without any opinion and let the public

form their own opinions based on just

well here's what he does here's what he

said would there be massive depression

and suicide I believe not there would

not be a chance of that there isn't the

slightest chance that if the news simply

said what he does and what he says

here's the tweet make up your own mind I

don't think the public would even be a

little bit concerned almost close to a

hundred percent I would say of how we

feel about it is opinions that have been

assigned to us by our preferred media

silos and the press has decided to

assign an opinion of great risk and harm

and and fear and the Republic is about

to end

none of that comes from Trump if you

simply reported what Trump says it does

it would be trouble saying you know the

economy is great what would be your

opinion to that suppose you're a person

who doesn't know much about the economy

and the news simply reports that Trump

tweeted that unemployment's a new record

and the stock market's up and wages are

up what would be your opinion well I

think it would just be positive right

but what is your current opinion if you

watch CNN or MSNBC

they say well you know these things

would have happened anyway we're

probably at the edge of a depression and

then suddenly you think maybe the

economy is not so good what would you

think about you know the the

Charlottesville hoax if the media had

simply reported what Trump said in

Charlottesville with no opinion that a

dog what would the public think about it

well they would have looked at what he

said and what he said was I

condemned totally the racists the white

nationalist and the neo-nazi he's in

trouble that's what he said he said it

in those direct words would the public

have interpreted the statement I condemn

them totally as being supportive of them

would that have been lean the public's

reaction to that I don't think so

I think they only have that that reason

that impression because the news

hypnotized them into it all right so we

will keep looking at the at the Iranian

situation the only thing I had to add

today if anybody's coming in late is

that don't be surprised if Solomon II

was the variable that was preventing

peace and now he's been removed and

don't be surprised if the Supreme Leader

of Iran is not so sad that his greatest

domestic rival is gone so this might

turn out this might turn out positively

but I don't want to get too optimistic

about this begins the there's a high

likelihood they'll be more danger before

things improve all right yeah why was he

in Baghdad I think everybody believes he

was in Baghdad to cause trouble so I

would also suggest that the president's

timing on this because there's gonna be

a lot of questions about you know why

now etc well I think that why now is

that we had a good shot so that's the

first part of why now so you can't you

can't kill somebody until you have an

opportunity to kill them and they

obviously had an opportunity secondly

it's sort of a perfect time to do it

because of the embassy thing etc and and

domestically it's kind of perfect too

now I hate to you and say that because

it's so icky but you know the Democrats

are gonna say that Trump is only doing

this because of the impeachment I don't

think he's only doing this because of

impeachment but it's really good timing

so I don't think that the impeachment

talked him out of it it may have talked

him into it

yeah so in my book and my book loser

think I have a section which I talk

about anybody who says why didn't you do

it sooner is an unproductive participant

because everything could be done sooner

and nobody really can answer that well

sometimes there's something specific but

most of the time there was something you

could have done to do it sooner so that

that's the the people were bad at

analyzing always say that well why

didn't you do it sooner that's the

lowest level of commentary Iran may be

related to Strock page so people think

that Iran might have some relationship

to our domestic situation I don't know

probably not

somebody says we've killed every

dictator we made a deal with in the past

well yeah so some of you were asking

about how this will affect in North

Korea the Kim definitely has something

to worry about but I also think that

North Korea is a completely different

situation because they're not actively

killing Americans if North Korea doesn't

kill Americans we're not going to kill

him I just don't think there's any

chance I mean you could argue that

warmbier was an American who got killed

but my take on that is that that to do

with the local jailers I mean I doubt

Kim jong-un ordered him to be killed or

beaten to death I just it just seems

unlikely not impossible but unlikely do

I have a long-term prediction on North

Korea yes I believe that they will morph

into an ally now it might be a weird

kind of frenemy Ally the you don't trust

doesn't join NATO but I think we're

going

to convert Nate North Korea into our

side here's why I say that we live in a

time where the strongest players we

should recruit to our side North Korea

is a strong player militarily

and when there are strong players

military militarily wouldn't you rather

have money your side we can't get China

on our side apparently but we can

certainly you know move North Korea

closer to our realm and that would be

enough so my guess is that North Korea

will not denuclearize but I think

there's a high likelihood I'll put it in

the 80% range a high likelihood that

someday within the next 10 or 20 years

North Korea will be is so non interested

in the United States and we would be non

interested in them because that's the

best place to get right where you want

to get with North Korea is mutual

non-interest that they're not interested

in attacking us we're not interested in

attacking that but it's not interested

so I think that's where we'll get to and

maybe some investment all right

that's all for now I will talk to you

all later