Back to episode — Episode 2716 CWSA 01/10/25
Context —
men. And the conversation didn't go much further after that. So that claim just sort of stayed there. Do you think it's true that the most educated demographic is Black women? It's almost true. It's actually almost true. It's not true if you look at the entire population of Black women compared to the entire population of other demographic groups. So that felt like that was the claim and that's de…
← Previous segment →challenged it even though it wasn't true. So to me that's more racist than not even though I support the general idea that Black women are doing great lately.
Elon says it's going to take years to rebuild LA. When they try to get permits it's going to be a problem. And I put out the following statements about rebuilding that you should know that I'm asking for a fact check so I don't know which ones of these are true but this is my starting point. The starting point is that it can take years to get anything approved in normal times. In normal times it would take years to get things approved in California. I know that from personal experience. So what would it take when everybody like 100,000 people are trying to apply for things at the same time or whatever the number is? How are they going to handle that? They don't have enough resources. So if it used to take more than a year in normal times how long is it going to take in abnormal times where everybody's trying to do it and all the resources are constrained and nobody knows what they're talking about and the environmentalists are saying no you can't do that and you can't even rebuild. The environmentalists will say you can't even rebuild. You're too close to the ocean or there's a fish we didn't know about before but now we do or there's a bird or something. So I think it could take five to ten years to rebuild a house. Five to ten years.
Now what happens to, what do you think it would cost to rebuild those homes? So if you had a home that was worth five million what do you think it would cost to rebuild it? And let's say it was insured for five million or it wasn't insured at all. Five million home, what would it cost to rebuild it? The answer is about ten million. If you're building a community like a big developer is doing a whole community then they can bring the cost of each unit down because they're working in bulk and they're mass designed and there aren't that many different designs and stuff so they can build the house for cheaper than they sell it. That's how they make money. But if you're building one house and you want the rooms that you want and it's on the hill and first you have to do a big cleanup and all that stuff it's going to cost closer to ten million to build a five million house.
What happens to your property tax if you spend ten million to build a five million house? Well I think that they would either, I've heard that there's a rule that if you're building back on the same footprint so it's the same size as the one that was destroyed then you get to keep the old tax basis, the old lower tax basis. But if you wanted to make your house while you're doing it you're like well you know this would be a good time to add that spare room. As soon as you do that your property tax will quadruple. You won't be able to afford to live there. So they've created a situation where all these people get at least the good news if they could afford it. The good news was hey those changes you wanted to make to your house you can make them now because the house is gone so design it the way you want. But it will have to be the same footprint or their taxes will double or quadruple. That's going to be a big problem I think.
Then what happens when the fire risk returns because everything's going to regrow and then the insurance companies either haven't come back or they leave because nothing's going to burn while it's all rubble but as soon as you build and replant and all the trees are back, do you think you could ever get insurance? Would you rebuild if you didn't think you could ever get insurance? I wouldn't. Why would you rebuild if you thought you could never get insurance? If you had kids and you say to yourself this is the best place in the world to raise kids. The kids are going to be out of the house in five to ten years depending on the age. If the kids are going to be out of the house in five to ten years they're going to be living in a burned out rubble most of that time. That's the place you go because the lifestyle is amazing.
The one thing I learned about it, I didn't know anything about the place. The one thing I learned about it is apparently the lifestyle there wasn't just good. Did you know that it wasn't just good? It was sort of like heaven. When I hear people talk about it it's like oh my God it was just the best. People, the best place. The downtown, the businesses, everything was close. It was on the beach. It was the temperature so you didn't have the extreme hot because you're on the beach. Like I don't know if any of those reasons are going to apply because it's going to take so long to clean up. So I don't know what that does.
What happens when you go to get a builder and 50,000 people are ahead of you for the few builders? How in the world are you going to get a qualified builder? Maybe they come from another state. If you get a builder from another state they're not going to know how to build in California and they would be crazy to come to California to start because the rules are too hard. If you were a builder and somebody said hey come to California you'd say is that the only place I could be a builder? No you could stay where you are and build things more easily. But if I come to California it's just going to be a hot mess every single thing I do and I won't even make a dollar because I can't even start and when I do start they're going to stop me because there's going to be some fish there. Next thing I know I can't possibly make money and then I have to learn this whole state weird stuff. The approvals are different than any other place. I don't know where they're going to get the builders. So that has to add some years to the rebuilding.
And then you've got unchecked crime. Let me give you the worst case scenario. It could be that the people who live there have enough male energy to stop this from happening. We'll see. But what happens when things settle down? Most of the properties will be abandoned right because most are burned to the ground and they're going to be working on approvals and even the cleanup is going to take a long time. What happens then? Let me tell you. I think the homeless are going to move in. They're going to put up a tent on what used to be your home. They won't care so much about all the debris. They'll like the view and the temperature. And when you go to kick them out they'll say well sorry I'm a squatter. I got squatter rights. And you're going to say you can have squatter rights on a tent on my own property? And then they say this is California. You can't move me. What happens then?
And what happens when it's not one but the entire hillside is full of people who heard that they'll never be kicked out and they could be living on the best property in the world as long as they don't mind living among the debris which couldn't be any worse than what they were doing on the streets. The thing I'd worry most about is the homeless coming in putting up tents because California doesn't remove homeless people in tents. I mean rarely. And then where are people going to live? And also people might worry that it becomes a horrible crime place that they don't want to live in the first place. I hope not.
And where do people live while the rebuilding is happening? How in the world are all of those 100,000 plus going to be able to live close enough to LA that they have some kind of continuity in their life? Maybe even close enough to the school. Almost nobody will be close enough to the school they were at and I think some of them burned. So you're going to end up in a different school in a different place and now your kids go to that other school and they get used to it and they got friends in the new school and five to ten years are going by and they're 17 now. Do they want to move back? I don't know. I feel like the fact that you can't stay local while it's being built and there's nothing local that you used to like, it's all burned u
Context —
p, you're going to move further than it would be comfortable to be the owner of something being rebuilt because you really need to visit the site a lot. If you've ever built a home you kind of need to go there a lot. I think people are going to assume they'll rebuild but when they get settled somewhere else that won't be that close maybe the new life looks better than trying to go back. So I think…
Next segment → →