Episode 1095 Scott Adams - Biden's Fake Lead in Polls Evaporates, Coup V2.0, Q and BLM

hey everybody come on in i put on the shirt just for you that's right i was sure listen to a moment ago because we're in a heat wave and i don't have air conditioning sure wish i did i do i have it in the other part of the house but not my office and how long does it take to fix air conditioning during the heat wave well it's not fast so maybe sometime in two weeks or so so i may not be able to work in my office i'm gonna have to relocate somewhere for probably a few weeks see what happens but enough about me let's have the simultaneous step and all you need is a copper mug or glass attacker challenger stein a canteen charger flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid i like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure the dopamine of the day the thing that makes everything better it's called the simultaneous sip and it happens now go well although i still have electricity where i live in my zip code i'm in california and it looks like a lot of california will not have electricity today why because our government in california is incompetent it decided to be very green and socially correct and the cost of that is getting rid of your nuclear power maybe some of your gas power and trying to make it more green what's the problem with that no electricity when it gets hot so there will be people dropping like flies today because of bad government management there will be people who probably die today because governor newsom didn't do his job and the rest of the government because if you're getting rid of power sources when you don't have enough that's going to come back and bite you so if you'd like the rest of the country to be as well managed as california you know how to do it um i don't know why anybody stays in california the only reason i do is because connections and roots and you know i've got too many things here that i can't walk away from but anybody who can leave who stays in california i don't know why you do it unless unless like me you've got connections so uh rush limbaugh is getting in trouble today for i guess i didn't hear it but he was referring to uh joe biden and kabul harris as joe and ho now he didn't he didn't make that up you've seen that going around the internet here is my advice to republicans slash conservatives that line of attack on harris just doesn't work so if the only thing you're trying to accomplish is to make republicans and conservatives less popular and to get them fewer votes then that's the way to go because you know the the personal uh sexual past of anybody we just can't make that part of politics it just can't be you know if she broke some laws okay but otherwise that since that didn't happen it's just counterproductive it's just counterproductive doesn't do anything so i would say don't do that all right so here is the democrats plan for retaining power or getting power i guess back from trump they have three ways to win three different ways to win number one fair and square let's say biden and harris just get more votes that's one way to win number two rigged the election with mail-in votes and fraud and all that could that work absolutely because you're only talking about some battleground states how hard would it be to rig the votes with mail-in votes and battleground states easy easy i would think so they could win that way but they have a third plan which is the dangerous one and that's the one that goes like this phase one make sure that the election will not be seen as credible no matter who wins now this is a big deal because we're better off with an inaccurate vote count that we mistakenly think is credible than we would be if we if we got exactly the right vote count let's say with no errors whatsoever impossible just say that but we don't think it's credible that would be the worst case right so if you had a choice of a good vote count that we don't trust or an inaccurate vote count that for whatever reason we do trust you want the one where we trust because otherwise the country is in trouble and it looks like the democrats are setting up a situation that guarantees the outcome will be in question wouldn't you say that that's obvious at this point it's fairly obvious that the intention of the mail-in voting is to make sure that you can't tell who won that is the intention uh you know you don't have to be a mind reader to know that if you could select from choices that have more integrity versus less in a national election you would never choose the one with less integrity unless you wanted less integrity right you would only choose that option if that's what you wanted otherwise you'd say all right everybody's got the same risk go to the voting voting places and vote so once once they get there let's say uh trump wins but narrowly if trump wins but narrowly they're going to say that the vote was not valid and they're going to start whatever legal and or extra-legal process to remove a president that they would then label as a dictator who refused to leave office how do you know this is true because you can see the disinformation campaign very clearly there on cnn you're going to see more and more of this it's going to be what happens if trump refuses to leave after he loses right every time they bring up that hypothetical they're forming a truth that they can then just transfer into whatever happens so reality hasn't given us an outcome or election yet but cnn is already forming the truth about it which will then just be ported over to the actual situation and so the truth that they're selling the brainwashing if you will the disinformation campaign and by the way if i had heard anybody talk the way i'm talking right now five years ago i would have laughed now it said you stupid conspiracy theorists there's nobody trying to overthrow the government but then we just watched it we know for sure that the democrats the fbi and the media did in fact try to overthrow the government that's not even speculation at this point it's you know proven demonstrable fact so if they did it once would they do it a second time oh the reason to do it a second time is way bigger there's a way more incentive to do it a second time do you know why because we haven't yet jailed the people who did it the first time if the let's say i won't name any names but don't you think there's some extra people who have some trouble coming some people whose names are you know you know i've got a feeling that the durham probe and the election are racing right now and if durham can get certain people indicted and or in jail before the election that might be one thing but those same people who might be indicted and or go to jail are probably going to push pretty hard for the option of making sure that the election result is not credible if trump wins because in order for some people to stay out of jail they might have to rig the election and removed the legally elected president to stay out of jail to stay out of jail would anybody rig an election to stay out of jail yeah yeah especially if you rigged the last election or you tried to by having a coup and removing the president you know in effect rigging it after the fact i guess you'd say so every bit of this is entirely not only possible but probable i would go so far as to say probable at this point yeah why is adam schiff not in jail i don't even understand that clearly you should be in jail all right uh now let's talk about what the media is doing to us so we've got mailbox gate going on the the belief that trump is having all the mailboxes picked up on trucks and taken away so that people can't vote by mail now of course i saw that story and i said to myself you know i feel i'm gonna wait a little bit if you see a story that the president has ordered mailboxes to be physically removed so that people can't vote the first thing you should think about that story is maybe i'll wait a little bit on this one i'm just going to take a little pause on this one because i don't i don't want to jump right in on on the removing mailboxes all across the country story because it's a little bit have you ever heard me say this before a little bit on the nose once you learn this on the nose thing where the where the news story is a little too perfect isn't that a little perfect the president is rounding up mailboxes your first thought should be probably not probably not and sure enough you wait 24 hours you lift put you look at the news you know breitbart's got a story about uh i guess during the obama administration 14 000 mailboxes were removed it's normal maintenance to remove them and relocate them into busier places it's just business as usual there's literally nothing that happened so you got that um then what else what else we've got going oh there's a there's the fake story that the president is pushing a birther thing with uh harris which he's not exactly pushing he's just saying other people brought it up that's it yeah people brought it up okay i guess that's our national story that's all we're going to talk about is the fact that the president didn't do something but you can kind of make it seem as if he did if you weren't it right that's news um what else we got going on um so new zealand has delayed their election which could not make me any happier because what the democrats well not not just the democrats but uh people have been saying for i don't know weeks now new zealand they're the smart ones new zealand really knows how to handle a coronavirus we should be more like new zealand you know it would be good if the united states were more like new zealand they've got their act together they did what they delayed the the election because of the coronavirus ah now we don't like new zealand new zealand's the wrong model new zealand does everything wrong new zealand is dom so you can expect that today new zealand's not so smart when they don't do what we want them to do so both biden and harris did not appear did not appear on any shows before the convention what the heck does that tell you neither biden or harris or even any senior people from their campaign they didn't send anybody out to talk on one of the biggest days of the week for the election are they even trying is there something going on here's what i think is going on hypothesis when would be the best time to replace biden with harris would it be during the convention would it be that once all the democrats are somehow at least connected by zoom and digitally connected could it be that that would be the right time for let's say joe biden to say i've got a sniffle and because i have a sniffle i couldn't possibly run for president or some minor problem like that is it possible that all the conversation happening right now is around the question of who should be the top of the ticket do you think that they're having that conversation intensely well here's the thing if they get past the convention it's going to be a lot harder to change the ticket won't it it feels like there's a an optimal time to do it and then there's it's a little harder after that but possible all right so i think the conversation is about when to do it not if because it's going to happen it's either going to happen naturally during the term it's going to happen effectively because everybody will assume that harris is running the show but it's going to happen so i think it's possible that having nobody from the campaign talk about anything could be a risk management decision in which they know that anything they say today could make things worse but there's nothing that could have been said yesterday on the news in terms of having yours or against talking to the news there's nothing that could have made it better because whatever happens with a shake-up of the ticket would be you know a nuclear bomb of news that would make anything that happened on sunday unimportant unless it was a mistake so the fact that they are playing to not make a mistake that aggressively tells me something's coming there's a little extra coming and they're at least talking about it i'm not predicting that they'll make the change at the convention i'm predicting that that's the conversation they're having all right i did a little uh poll in which i asked people if they thought the black lives movement protests were making things better or worse for black americans now most of the people who answered it were probably people who were trump supporters probably more male probably more white 80 white something like that because that's just who follows me on twitter it's not my fault don't blame me i'm not the i'm not the one who decides who follows me i'm just telling you that's who follows me if that if you don't think that's diverse enough i can't help it um but anyway uh i think something like 83 percent i didn't check it recently said that the the protests are making it worse for black people in the united states now you might say to yourself well why are you asking a bunch of white people if this is making it worse for black people well that's exactly the group to ask if you want to see how the people who might have prejudice are feeling because black people are not trying to convince other black people that they should get more respect resources etc they're trying to convince the very kind of people who answered my poll so that is the group you want to hear from how do you feel about this segment of society now that they've expressed a let's say the black lives matter protests et cetera have been expressed the way they have been expressed and if you get 83 or somewhere in that neighborhood saying it made things worse for black people i think that probably did and here's how i think it's worse i think the the i hate to use this word but you know what i'm talking about the brand for black america i think is ruined for a while it might take 10 years to recover that because it's such a bad look because it's paired with looting and paired with pictures of destruction and violence etc because all those things are paired it's just become a terrible look and then the black lives matter leaders saying stuff such as the looting is reparations i don't know how you could do a worse thing to the public you're trying to help i mean really if if black people in america thought that something like real reparations could be possible would you want your let's say people who present themselves as leaders the black lives matter leaders and organizers would you want them saying that the looting was reparations that's exactly what you'd want them not to say because that just took it right off the table you know i i was sort of pro looking into reparations at least having you know having a legitimate conversation about what could and could not be done given constraints i was all for that i'm all for any conversation and i think that that was you know worth having but not now now it would just be a waste of time i wouldn't spend one minute talking about reparations you know i'd wait another 10 years before bringing that up so i think things are worse for reparations they're certainly worse for racial harmony and i think it's going to have the biggest impact on employment i think black employment is going to take a hit because a lot of people are going to say you know i just don't want somebody who feels bad about me so it won't even be a question that the employer feels bad about the employee they'll just say why would i hire somebody i think might have a bad attitude about me yeah and that would be fair i don't know if it would be legal but it would certainly be reasonable to not hire people you have a high likely a high degree of certainty that they don't like you all right um and of course black lives matter has their priorities upside down which is the worst thing they're they're focusing on the police uh element of it which you know needs a look i'm not saying that you should brush that aside there there's something real that needs to be looked at there and made better but it is also their lowest priority or should be because it affects the fewest people highest priority of course is the teachers unions which are the source of ongoing systemic racism so if black lives matter can't even fight systemic racism right they're going after the lowest priority instead of the highest priority the teachers unions it's hard to give them any credibility so i think they're way behind so cnn news is about q anon because that embarrasses the president and about the u.s postal service being actually quite dependable so cnn is trying to brainwash the country into thinking mail service is dependable let me ask you this have you ever had somebody else's mail delivered to your mailbox i think you have i think yes have you ever mailed anything that didn't get to its destination oh i think you have has anybody ever mailed something to you that you didn't get oh i think you have you've had that experience i mentioned before my father worked for the post office for 30 years every night he would come home and over dinner he would complain about some post office inefficiency so i'm as biased as you could possibly be about the efficiency of the post office let me tell you one other little anecdote back in the days when i would draw the comic strip dilbert on paper and i would take a copy of it and mail the original to my syndicator who would then take copies and send it off to the newspapers well what happens once the the post office where you mail your originals what happens once they figure out your name what happened after they recognized my name and realized i was the dilbert creator and i was sending a package that was about the size of original art what what do you think happened to my original art stolen yeah stolen was i the only cartoonist who put original art in the mail and once the post office realized who was mailing it they stole it nope it happened to other cartoonists i'm not going to name names but there's a well-known cartoonist who couldn't mail his his work because the post office stole it every time now i once had his years before there were gofundmes i wrote a story about somebody who's having trouble on a newsletter i used to do years and years ago and uh i think i asked people to i don't know send if they wanted to donate to this person who was in a bad situation they could send money to this post office box now what i didn't realize is that people wouldn't send it necessarily checks so something like 80 percent of the people who send some money to that post office box put cash they put cash in it now of course they they tried to disguise it you know you put paper around the cash or whatever but as soon as the post office realized that any cash there must have been at least one that you could sort of tell there was a dollar in there or something as soon as the postal employees realized that the mail going to this one post office box had cash in it how much of the cash got through after the day that they realized it was cash none none they stole every every bit of it you know there were like empty envelopes that would show up and it just like stopped one day the moment they realized it was cash they stole it all so the democrats are trying to sell you the most ridiculous notion that the post office could take a 30 hit to their traffic uh and given the the current amount of efficiency that we would have something like a credible election that way there is not really any chance of having a credible election with a massive mail-in votes it's just not a thing and it doesn't matter who wins and doesn't even matter what happens it is not credible by its as a system in other words there's nothing you can do between now and then there's just nothing you can do there's not enough time now let me test out a uh i need you to fact check this for me i saw a claim that you can tell by the bar code and some codes on it on the outside of your ballot if you're a republican or a democrat can somebody confirm that that's true or not true and the the claim is that under the barcode there's this what looks like a long series of random numbers and letters but one of the letters is either a d or an r indicating whether you're registered democrat or republican i don't know if that's true can somebody fact check that for me because again remember the rule if something's a little bit too on the nose it's probably not true so if you hear that the the mail-in ballots uh tell have some kind of indicator on it subtle one but you if you knew what it was you could look for it that the indicator will tell you if you're democrat or republican that is too on the nose meaning if that's true well that would be amazing so usually things that if they're true that would be amazing are usually not true so somebody needs to confirm that this is true to me before i will believe it but there's a report out there that you can tell just by looking at the envelope if that's true there's really no chance of of a fair election no chance the the the oh and and this is the funniest part if you want to know how dumb the post office is uh and again i can say this because my father worked for the post office and he he was one of the dumbest guys i've ever known true story i hate to say that he's he's no longer with us so i can say that but the postal union decided to endorse biden that's right while we're having this big national debate about whether the post office can be a major element of a fair election the postal union just endorsed one of the people running now that should have been the end of it the moment the postal union endorsed one of the candidates that was the point when the democrats should have said oh okay that really just changes everything i i see we can't use the system anymore because now it's not only bias but it's announced a bias they announced a bias that's really the end of it if we were any kind of a competent country we would just say oh well there's still a debate about whether it could be done fairly but there's no longer a debate about whether it can be seen as credible and if you think those are the same debate they're not so let me say that again because it's the most important thing there's a debate about whether it can be accurate and that's separate from whether the public can ever see it as credible and once once the postal union has picked aside that's it that's the end of any real chance it could be seen as credible it can't be because the people delivering the damn mail just told you who they want to win i don't think it could be any clearer than that that you can't overcome that hurdle that that is a mountain that no amount of hard work can overcome you can do anything you want you could put a trillion dollars into making sure that the actual mail delivery was accurate it would make no difference at this point because the postal union picked a preferred candidate it's over this question is absolutely over but the but the fake news will try to conflate those two things and act like the credibility and the actual performance are really the same thing and then there's another bit of magic where they have to act as though the post office does a good job now as somebody who is bad at analogies said on twitter oh sure because by the way you can tell that this is a democrat talking because they only use sarcasm instead of reasons so don't look for the reason it's just sarcasm oh sure we we don't trust the post office to to deliver the ballots but we do trust it for our social security checks well i think they do those electronically but we do trust it for all of our important other stuff oh no the only important thing we don't trust it for is the election yeah all these other important things we trusted for just not this one thing right so that's a democrat argument it doesn't say anything it just says it in that tone so there's no actual thinking or rational anything it's just that tone now here's what's wrong with it of course if somebody sends you a check and you don't get it because it got lost in the mail or it comes a few days late that doesn't change too much does it there isn't too much that's going to go wrong if your check is a couple days late or even if it gets lost you can always call the the person who lost it as i have let me let me tell you how many times that i've not gotten a check that was mailed to me 25 times maybe in the in the course of my professional life something like 25 times i've had to put a stop on a check or ask somebody to put a stop on a check because the mail didn't deliver it probably 25 times and so the so the next thing that the news will try to convince you is that they're actually good when you have a time constraint so the reason these analogies are not appropriate is because these are low risk things that don't have a timing element to them whereas the election is the highest of all risk it's literally the highest risk in the country if you get that wrong everything else falls apart it doesn't matter what you're doing right with your economy your anything else if if the election doesn't hold as credible everything else falls apart it's all dependent on that that's the that's the way the system is designed so we're going to have a non-credible result and the news will try to convince us that it was credible it's the most incredible the most amazing act of brainwashing you'll ever see all right um oh so you notice that there are riots and massive uh shootings and gun deaths and stuff and i guess chicago and portland and seattle i don't know if new york is still doing it and they're getting pretty violent and terrible and every day that they go on trump gets closer to election because trump has played this perfectly from a political perspective you could argue about you know functionally but from a political perspective the best thing trump could have done is continuously offer federal help and let the cities decline it and then once they've declined it allow allow that to stand not overrule them now the the minor exception was federal people protecting federal property but that's an exception that's that's federal property uh so by trump not acting like a dictator in other words not sending in troops and overriding the cities and and the states he looks very much not like a dictator and it makes the other side the democrats running these riot-torn cities look like well do you want more of that because that's what they want to bring you nationally i mean if i were the trump campaign i would do nothing but show video from the riots and say this is what they want to bring to you nationally because you know that's not even a little bit wrong that's not even a slight bit of hyperbole what you're seeing in the inner cities is exactly what you would get everywhere if those same kinds of policies were taken nationally same kind of policies in this case being soft on crime um cnn has managed to disappear all of the riots like it's like they don't exist and also the kleinsmith stuff so to so the country is having like massive these big riots every night and there was a coup that we now know you know at least one of the central uh players of this coup this kleinsmith guy and that's sort of not treated as news not really news the the milly weaver thing i haven't gotten interested in yet i guess that's been removed so i guess that's um let's say uh contentious contentious no some debatable reporting there so i don't know what the truth is on any of that um here let me see if i can clear something up that a few times i made some twitter comments that were incomplete and therefore misleading and it goes like this why is it that the george floyd story is a national story whereas the uh the the five-year-old or the toddler whatever he was who was killed by his neighbor while he was just in his front yard why is one of them a national story and the other is ignored because fox news and others are trying to say hey what about this story is it only because the victim was white and here's what the public doesn't understand about what makes a national story now i deal with trying to turn things that are not stories into national stories that's actually my job so if i'm trying to get my book promoted and let's say it was a the original dilbert books i would tie them to a national story which is hey there's lots of downsizing and offshoring back in the 90s and here's a character that has the same situation so dilbert got on the cover of magazines etc because i did what everybody does when they want to elevate an individual story they attach it to something that's already a story you can't make a story out of nothing it's really hard but you can attach anecdotes to existing stories and then they they get some attention so the george floyd thing was attached to a national story you can argue whether it was a true or false story but you can't argue that it was a national high-level story about black citizens being abused by cops so because it was already a story any video especially and it's the video that makes it extra extra strong it's not the video alone it still could have been a story without the video but i think you'd all agree the video gave it that extra power so i think i said on twitter it has to be on video let me let me adjust that to say doesn't have to be on video but it's way way way stronger if it is so the problem with the child who is killed by the neighbor is it does not attach to any national story and when the conservative side of the world tried to do that and say hey hey this is a story too why are you ignoring it why are you being hypocrites they weren't they weren't being hypocrites because the child who was killed as tragic as that is and and unique in its in its way in a bad way uh it just doesn't attach to a national story but suppose the democrats had run that same story it would have been a gun control story a gun control story right it would have been a story about there are too many guns and therefore look what happened this kid got shot but because the races were the wrong races it doesn't fit in with the black lives matter story doesn't fit in with the protesters so places like cnn would be disinclined to attach it to a national story about gun control because it would work against their other propaganda now that part's true but if you're a conservative i wouldn't try too hard yeah his his name is canon uh hit net if that's if that's the right name um so i wouldn't try too hard to get this attached to a national story if you're a conservative because it's going to get attached to gun control now you might say to yourself but wait scott what about the national story of black on white murder what about that because and i looked that up just see what the stats are on that um and i think it's something like like i actually have those stats um and it's always hard to find stats when you're talking on public and looking for your stats you can never find your stats how the hell did i not find that oh here it is there are more than twice as many black and white homicides compared to white on black so the black population is 13 of the country white is 80 something percent but they have roughly evil equal number of crimes against the other which would mean that the black on white crime as a percentage would be sky high now why is that not a national story do you ever ask yourself that why is it not a national story that white people are being slaughtered by black people now i use the word slaughtered to get myself cancelled because that's the part will be taken out of context that's a lot of murder there's a lot of murder going on what is it what is it yeah it can't be 80 what's the percentage of oh you know what it does uh i think in the stats the hispanic population was added to the standard white population so i think in the when they do the stats they're adding hispanic and white together as one category so then it gets into the 80s not that you would do that necessarily but that's what it is so ask yourself why is that not a national story now of course you can explain it by income income groups and stuff like that but it is not a story that you could tell without getting canceled can you imagine any national news program doing a story about the epidemic of black people killing white people you can't really you can't even imagine it in this country that could never happen and because dana can be used to make any case you want you could simply reverse and say oh sure but white people are killing just as many black people so you know it's about equal well my point is that we sort of decide what the story is and then things get attached to it but it's the national press that decides what's the story and they have decided it's not good for their personal careers to emphasize any racial disparity in crime and so they don't and so therefore that story of the tragic story of the child who got murdered by the neighbor doesn't tie to a national story so if you think you should that would be fair to say but if you're wondering hey why are these being treated differently that's the reason it's just not tied to a national story and that's the way it always works all right um coronavirus deaths i think there are over 175 000 for this country predicted at least another 24 000 in the coming month so we will easily it looks like past 200 000 dead that's a number which i had asked people who were saying it's just the flu early on i said well if you think it's just the flu can you commit to a number beyond which you'd say oh god that wasn't just the flu and and one of the one of the what would i say coronavirus i don't want to say skeptic but skeptic in terms of how bad it would be had said 200 000 would be the number at which you'd say okay all right for 200 000 deaths that's definitely not the flu especially since the 200 000 you only got to because of the closed down and the severe punishment of the economy so does anybody still argue it's just the flu has that population of people now shrunk to the point where it's a different conversation a conversation about how to handle it but not so much that's just the flu so i don't know if that transition is going to happen but i don't hear the just the flu people being as loud on social media anymore speaking of statistics do you believe that we will ever know eve no matter when at any date in the future whether the u.s did worse or better than other countries do you think we'll ever know that if you said yes oh yeah we'll definitely know i mean once it's all done we'll look at the data lots of researchers will dig in they'll find out what worked what didn't and we will know if president trump did a good job compared to the other leaders if you believe that can be known you've never been involved in this kind of work meaning data analysis of any kind we can't know that it is completely unknowable unless it was some major obvious thing that anybody could tell but if you tried to suss it out of the the data and the only thing you're doing is saying i'm not going to look at i'm not going to look at the decisions he made i'm just going to see how it turned out you know you're never going to be able to do it and here's why would it be most appropriate i saw this yesterday for the us as a whole to be compared to the other wealthy countries would that be a good comparison well i would argue that you need to take the islands out of it i think you need to take your taiwan's your south korea which is effectively an island because of the dmz you're you're new zealand's and maybe you're australia that's a it's a pretty big island but uh but i think you need to look at the island separately and say okay these have the most in common with each other because of you know the island element of it and see how the islands did so if you're throwing the islands in with wealthy countries well already that result is less credible okay that's just one problem here's some more the united states is really 50 different entities you know 52 if you count i don't know puerto rico and guam or whatever so should we say that the average of those all those entities is what the united states is or should we treat each of the states like a country and say all right how did new york state do compared to europe right because actually new york state's doing pretty well you know they had a they had a tough spot wasn't their fault for the most part you could argue about the about the the old people being put back in their senior care places that looks like a mistake in hindsight i don't know if it was as obvious when it happened obviously it wasn't it wasn't obviously a mistake when it happened but wouldn't we find for example that we have let's say just guessing probably more than 40 states who are doing better than europe would that be true would we have 40 of our states doing better than europe maybe but then those european countries would say wait wait wait if you get to cherry-pick your states we're going to say if you take i'll just pick a random all right we'll do the same thing we'll take frankfurt out of our equation i'm just guessing that frankfurt had bad coronavirus i don't know if it did we'll just take that out of our equation how about that and then we beat you again so basically everybody who wants to look good is going to have an argument well don't count the you know the senior care places you have to take those out that was just you know tragic but you know if you're really going to compare that was just one event that had a big impact you got to take that out so people argue about whether that should be in around whether the state should be compared whether you're on the same curve we don't know and then here's here's the thing that's so completely unknowable and the thing that's going to drive me freaking crazy for the next five years and it goes like this as far as i can tell sweden did the dumbest strategy and it worked out the best now that of course creates a situation where you can say that they didn't have a good strategy or that they did you could just spin it any way you want so here's why it was the dumbest plan when sweden went for herd immunity the assumption was they'd have to get the 60 or 70 percent infection turns out it's probably closer to 20 because people seem to have some natural immunity and if sweden had known it was going to be 20 well they're geniuses oh they're geniuses we'll talk about italy in a second but but sweden thinking that they were heading toward herd immunity of 60 or 70 which by any measure would have been you know quite a big death toll probably would have crashed their health care system they probably would have ended up closing more stuff they would have had to more aggressively close down because the public would say too many people are dying or health care is dying so if so if sweden's plan had worked the way they thought it would work here's the key part if sweden's plan had worked the wastes we didn't thought it would work if it gone exactly the way they wanted it to it would have crashed their whole economy because they thought it was 60 to 70 percent for herd immunity they got incredibly lucky i think now i think we'll probably have to wait to see if this is real but the only way that sweden got down to basically something like zero deaths lately is because herd immunity was a fraction of what everybody thought nobody knew that they did the dumbest strategy and hit a home run it was like they were blindfolded and they were up to bat and somebody threw a ball and they swung really hard and they hit the fricking ball and they got a home run and it wasn't because they were good batters they had a blindfold on right that's what happened so it's going to drive me crazy that we will ever be compared to sweden's like look how smart sweden was no they were the dumbest country but they got the luckiest that's what it looks like to me so if it turns out that 20 is hurt immunity and it also is true that the united states has rampant infections where europe does not who's the smart one right because now we've seen sweden if we'd never seen sweden hit herd immunity we would also think it was 60 or 70 percent but now that we know it's closer to 20 and we know that in all likelihood i'm not sure you can say you know anything but it seems very likely that the reason that new york city and new york state are doing well is that they have so many infections that every they got to hurt immunity and we might be the next one who hits herd immunity simply because we didn't control it that carefully same as sweden so if it turns out that we get back to a functioning economy and fewer deaths because we had herd immunity faster than europe who is the smart one would we be the smart one because our economy would be kicking back into gear our deaths would be zero we'd be on the other side of it like sweden while europe is still trying to tamp down every fire i know we better close down again better close down again better close down again and they're going to end up in the same place so my my basic point is that we will never know who did better than anybody else because everybody was guessing we all have good hindsight none of the data is reliable and nobody can decide what two things should be compared i will add this following prediction i think that the reason that the herd immunity is so low somewhere 20 percent ish might be because the vitamin d thing i think we're going to find out that the people who had the lowest vitamin d as well as any other medical problems were just the entire the entire group that could have a problem because it turns out that you have low vitamin d if you're african-american if you're overweight if you've got diabetes if you're old if you're you know probably in a senior care facility like all of the things all the types of people were at high risk coincidentally also had very low vitamin d i think in the end we're going to find out that they were the the ones at risk and and if we had tested for vitamin d levels we could have really uh done better all right now some of you are going to say how can hurt immunity be 20 when we know that at least in one city in europe it was over 50 and there are some prisons which are also over 50 and there actually is a perfectly good reason why some environments don't get hurt immunity at twenty percent and it has to do with density so if you got people packed together such as in a jail it doesn't matter that herd immunity would normally be twenty percent they're just they're just basically marinating in virus there's just so much of a viral load if you get enough infected people in a small area like a jail that in that case as with at least one cruise ship as well it'll it'll rush past 20 but those are artificial environments where people can't get away from each other too well so it could be true that a prison or a cruise ship or a certain town could have a 50 situation for herd another one might be 20 percent if you're just living in the country so those can be compatible all right cnn has a poll that shows uh that the here's here's how it's worded uh on i think breitbart that joe biden's lead has evaporated in the last two months a new poll from cnn shows this is a cnn poll showing biden's lead has evaporated now let me ask you this let's say you were planning a coup version 2.0 and let's say let's say you wanted to maybe keep all your options open and one of the options would be to replace the top of the ticket with kamala harris if you were an illegitimate news organization whose leader jeff zucker was personally and has for a long time been a promoting kamala harris what do you think your polls would show right before the democratic convention i believe your polls would show that biden has a lead that evaporated because if cnn wants kamal harris to take the top spot they're going to have to create a narrative that says that biden cannot win the way he's going in other words they're going to say ah the weakness in the party it's obviously the top spot because you know and now his lead has evaporated according to cnn huh how convenient just when the democrats are at that decision point of deciding whether they need to make a change at the top just at the right time cnn that is very pro-kamala harris coincidentally produces their worst poll results for joe biden huh interesting what a coincidence or is it now i would say that one of the reasons that maybe trump will look better in all the polls because i would expect all the polls to start narrowing especially as we get closer to the vote and here's the thing that i don't think you can underestimate the degree to which democrats saw biden as a seat of filler and not a real candidate because as long as trump was running against a generic democrat that generic democrat didn't have any flaws and biden was really just a sea filler he was just a stand-in a proxy if you will for a generic democrat a person who was not trump but now you put it in kamala harris people say well she's the real president and suddenly it's trump versus an actual person who has actual history and actual targets and actual flaws it's the first time until now trump was running against a generic even with biden and it was just a generic now it's a real person so you would expect that the flaws of a real person would seem bigger than the flaws of a generic because that person can be perfect in your mind and the funniest part is that the battleground states the only ones that matter have how close are they they're dead even so the battleground states are dead even do you know what dead even means in a cnn poll if the cnn poll says the battleground states are dead even statistically it's 49 to 48.

that means that trump is ahead of the battleground states there's no other way to see that because you know there's some shy trump supporters in there how shy are the trump supporters let me put it to you this way you know those gigantic trump boat rallies that you've seen on social media but you don't see in the news because the news doesn't cover it those uh i'm just looking at a comment that's making me laugh the reason that trump supporters have to have the rally in the water is because they can't do it on land trump supporters could not put on their trump hats pick up their trump flags and say hey let's meet in the park and have a trump rally it would be dangerous it's dangerous to be on land as a trump supporter that could be identified it's actually dangerous and so trump supporters didn't just find a cool way to show their support it's like hey boats are cool if we have a lot of boats and it's the summer it's going to look pretty cool let's have a lot of boats yeah that's part of it that's part of it but the bigger part is the republicans are not safe on land democrats could have a pro-biden parade and they would know they would not be harassed maybe verbally but not physically right democrats can have a rally on dry land you live in a country where this sort of this sort of snuck up on you it's not an accident that the trump supporters had to leave the continental united states i mean they're still in u.s waters but they had to leave the continental united states literally physically leave it leave the united states to have a trump rally i mean they're still in in our waters but they have to leave the the dry land that's not a joke there's no joke there that is actually what happened they couldn't feel safe on dry land now you tell me that these people are telling the truth when pollsters call them and say who do you support not a chance not a chance i told you that when a pollster called me the first i think the first time it's ever happened um the moment i realized it was a pollster and i realized what the question was going to be about in my head i said oh i'm going to tell them biden because the last thing i'm going to do is tell them the truth and you know it turns out they asked me if i was registered to vote and i said no and that was the end of it so i didn't have to lie but i would have so at the moment it looks like there's no real chance that biden can win as the top of the ticket and that means that cnn is going to soften up the public by giving some low poll numbers you should expect that any other poll polling company that's friendly to biden is going to show his his his lead narrowing you should see all of the left-leaning polls narrow quickly because they're going to try to create the story that well sooner than it's sooner than better sooner is better to replace the top of the ticket better get this going better hurry up because he's not going to win you look at the polls he's not going to win you better put somebody stronger in there hey who do we put in there calmly hear us all right uh somebody says dude trump was holding two rallies a week until covent on landed everything well that was trump trump has the advantage of having lots of security and a secure location uh that's still safe but if you were to just say hey why don't we have like a trump parade or why don't we all meet in the park and we're just it's just us there's no trump it's just us what do you think would happen it's a different situation have you noticed that the people who disagree with me are just bad at analogies i think the democrats have basically two modes of arguing a bad analogy and sarcasm and sometimes they they combine the two because you saw that even even though that was a written comment about the person who said uh that trump has had rallies even the written comment was written as sarcasm dude trump has had two rallies and everything even spelled everything so in that sarcastic way and there thing they can't actually have any kind of irrational debate it's so is so universally true it's just a bad analogy with sarcasm and they actually think that that's some kind of thinking some kind of point it's really not it's actually not it's just sarcasm sarcasm isn't reasons and analogies are not reasons either they're just something that reminded you of something else that's it that's the whole thing uh yeah try to put a trump bumper sticker on your car better yet put a trump bumper sticker over any car that you think is a biden sporter no don't do that their cars will get wrecked take that back do not do that although i know it's been done as a prank somebody says warren i don't think so but you know nothing can be ruled out at this point i don't think warren would have a chance against trump uh somebody says what's up with trump helicopters flying with four missiles why wouldn't it you don't think you don't think air force one has defense i would expect the helicopters to be harmed why wouldn't they be all right uh somebody says the comment was funny jesus ease up boomer can i see that now first of all the comment was meant to be a serious comment that that trump has rallies so here's somebody who can't tell the difference between humor and not humor actually can't tell the difference and so has decided to call me a boomer because didn't have any other reasons so so i guess that's the third argument there are three democrat arguments bad analogy sarcasm and calling people to boomers kind of it but this one won't have to worry anymore because he is now relegated to the blocked world goodbye all right that's all i got uh did you cash out your kamala bet well she's not official yet she's not official i have two bets on kamala one for the top of the ticket and one for vice president both of them were long odds so if either one of them comes in it pays for the other one so i'm at least going to win for vice president which would pay for my other bet and and more uh but if she becomes the top of the ticket i'm going to make some serious money so i still have those bets in place oh q anon um i i don't know what to say about q i it seems like cnn wants to make that more of a story uh q has become a bit of a religion i think people i think people just enjoy the whole cue thing i just can't take it too seriously somebody says if i see an american flag i think trump supporter i think you're right i think you're right i don't think that the democrats use the american flag anymore i think that they too see it as a republican symbol all right that's all i got for now and i will talk to you tomorrow slaughter beaters at 100 percent

hey everybody

come on in i put on the shirt

just for you that's right i was sure

listen to a moment ago because

we're in a heat wave and i don't have

air conditioning

sure wish i did i do i have it in the

other part of the house but not my

office

and how long does it take to fix air

conditioning during the heat wave

well it's not fast so maybe sometime in

two weeks or so

so i may not be able to work in my

office i'm gonna have to relocate

somewhere for probably a few weeks see

what happens

but enough about me let's have the

simultaneous step and all you need is a

copper mug or glass attacker challenger

stein a canteen charger flask a vessel

of any

kind fill it with your favorite liquid

i like coffee and join me now

for the unparalleled pleasure the

dopamine of the day the thing that makes

everything better it's called the

simultaneous sip

and it happens now go

well although i still have electricity

where i live in my zip code

i'm in california and it looks like a

lot of california will not have

electricity today why

because our government in california

is incompetent it decided to be very

green and

socially correct and the cost of that is

getting rid of your nuclear power maybe

some of your gas power

and trying to make it more green

what's the problem with that no

electricity when it gets hot so there

will be people

dropping like flies today because of bad

government management there will be

people who

probably die today because governor

newsom didn't do his job and the rest of

the government

because if you're getting rid of power

sources when you don't have enough

that's going to come back and bite you

so if you'd like the rest of the country

to be as

well managed as california you know how

to do

it um

i don't know why anybody stays in

california the only reason i do

is because connections and roots and

you know i've got too many things here

that i can't

walk away from but anybody who can

leave who stays in california

i don't know why you do it unless unless

like me you've got connections

so uh rush limbaugh is getting in

trouble today for i guess

i didn't hear it but he was referring to

uh

joe biden and kabul harris as joe and ho

now he didn't he didn't make that up

you've seen that going around the

internet

here is my advice to republicans

slash conservatives that line of attack

on harris

just doesn't work so if the only thing

you're trying to accomplish

is to make republicans and conservatives

less popular and to get them fewer votes

then that's the way to go because you

know the

the personal uh sexual past of

anybody we just can't make that part of

politics it just can't be

you know if she broke some laws okay but

otherwise

that since that didn't happen it's just

counterproductive

it's just counterproductive doesn't do

anything

so i would say don't do that all right

so

here is the democrats plan for

retaining power or getting power i guess

back from trump

they have three ways to win

three different ways to win number one

fair and square let's say biden and

harris just get more votes that's one

way to win

number two

rigged the election with mail-in votes

and fraud and all that

could that work absolutely

because you're only talking about some

battleground states

how hard would it be to rig the votes

with mail-in votes and battleground

states

easy easy i would think so they could

win that way

but they have a third plan

which is the dangerous one and that's

the one that goes like this

phase one make sure that the election

will not be seen as

credible no matter who wins now this is

a big deal

because we're better off with an

inaccurate vote count

that we mistakenly think is credible

than we would be

if we if we got exactly the right vote

count let's say with no errors

whatsoever

impossible just say that but we don't

think it's credible

that would be the worst case right so if

you had a choice

of a good vote count that we don't trust

or an inaccurate vote count that for

whatever reason we do trust

you want the one where we trust because

otherwise the country

is in trouble and it looks like the

democrats are setting up

a situation that guarantees the outcome

will be in question wouldn't you say

that that's obvious at this point

it's fairly obvious that the intention

of the mail-in voting

is to make sure that you can't tell who

won

that is the intention uh you know you

don't have to be a mind reader to know

that if you could select from choices

that have more

integrity versus less in a national

election

you would never choose the one with less

integrity

unless you wanted less integrity

right you would only choose that option

if that's what you wanted

otherwise you'd say all right

everybody's got the same risk

go to the voting voting places and vote

so once once they get there let's say uh

trump wins but narrowly if trump wins

but narrowly they're going to say that

the vote was not

valid and they're going to start

whatever legal

and or extra-legal process to remove a

president that they would then label as

a dictator

who refused to leave office how do you

know this is true

because you can see the disinformation

campaign

very clearly there on cnn you're going

to see

more and more of this it's going to be

what happens

if trump refuses to leave after he loses

right every time they bring up that

hypothetical

they're forming a truth that they can

then just

transfer into whatever happens so

reality hasn't given us

an outcome or election yet but cnn is

already

forming the truth about it which will

then just be ported over to the actual

situation

and so the truth that they're selling

the brainwashing if you will the

disinformation campaign

and by the way if i had heard anybody

talk the way i'm talking right now

five years ago i would have laughed now

it said you

stupid conspiracy theorists

there's nobody trying to overthrow the

government

but then we just watched it we know for

sure

that the democrats the fbi and the media

did in fact try to overthrow the

government that's not even

speculation at this point it's you know

proven demonstrable

fact so if they did it once

would they do it a second time oh the

reason to do it a second time

is way bigger there's a way more

incentive to do it a second time

do you know why because we haven't yet

jailed the people who did it the first

time

if the let's say i won't name any names

but don't you think there's some extra

people who have some trouble coming

some people whose names are you know

you know i've got a feeling that the

durham probe

and the election are racing right now

and if durham can get

certain people indicted and or in jail

before the election

that might be one thing but those same

people who might be indicted

and or go to jail are probably going to

push pretty hard for the option

of making sure that the election result

is not credible

if trump wins because in order for some

people to stay out of jail

they might have to rig the election and

removed the legally elected

president to stay out of jail

to stay out of jail would anybody rig an

election

to stay out of jail yeah

yeah especially if you rigged the last

election

or you tried to by having a coup and

removing the president

you know in effect rigging it after the

fact i guess you'd say

so every bit of this is entirely not

only possible

but probable i would go so far as to say

probable at this point yeah why is adam

schiff not in jail i don't even

understand that

clearly you should be in jail

all right uh now let's talk about what

the media is

doing to us so we've got mailbox gate

going on

the the belief that trump is having all

the mailboxes picked up on trucks and

taken away

so that people can't vote by mail now of

course

i saw that story and i said to myself

you know

i feel i'm gonna wait a little bit if

you see a story

that the president has ordered mailboxes

to be physically removed

so that people can't vote

the first thing you should think about

that story is maybe i'll wait a little

bit on this one

i'm just going to take a little pause on

this one because i don't i don't want to

jump right in on

on the removing mailboxes all across the

country story

because it's a little bit have you ever

heard me say this before

a little bit on the nose

once you learn this on the nose thing

where the

where the news story is a little too

perfect

isn't that a little perfect the

president is rounding up mailboxes

your first thought should be probably

not

probably not and sure enough you wait 24

hours you lift

put you look at the news you know

breitbart's got a story about uh

i guess during the obama administration

14 000

mailboxes were removed it's normal

maintenance to remove them and

relocate them into busier places it's

just business as usual

there's literally nothing that happened

so

you got that um

then what else what else we've got going

oh there's a

there's the fake story that the

president is pushing a birther thing

with uh harris which he's not exactly

pushing

he's just saying other people brought it

up

that's it yeah people brought it up

okay i guess that's our national story

that's all we're going to talk about

is the fact that the president didn't do

something but you can kind of make it

seem as if he did

if you weren't it right that's news

um what else we got going on

um so new zealand has delayed their

election

which could not make me any happier

because what

the democrats well not not just the

democrats but

uh people have been saying for i don't

know weeks now

new zealand they're the smart ones new

zealand really knows how to handle a

coronavirus

we should be more like new zealand you

know it would be good

if the united states were more like new

zealand they've got their act together

they did what they delayed the the

election because of the coronavirus

ah now we don't like new zealand new

zealand's the wrong model

new zealand does everything wrong new

zealand is dom

so you can expect that today new

zealand's not so smart

when they don't do what we want them to

do

so both biden and harris did not appear

did not appear on any shows before the

convention

what the heck does that tell you neither

biden or harris

or even any senior people from their

campaign

they didn't send anybody out to talk on

one of the biggest

days of the week for the election are

they even trying

is there something going on here's what

i think is going on

hypothesis when would be the best time

to replace biden with harris

would it be during the convention

would it be that once all the democrats

are somehow at least

connected by zoom and digitally

connected

could it be that that would be the right

time

for let's say joe biden to say

i've got a sniffle and because i have a

sniffle

i couldn't possibly run for president

or some minor problem like that is it

possible

that all the conversation happening

right now

is around the question of who should be

the top of the ticket

do you think that they're having that

conversation intensely

well here's the thing if they get past

the convention

it's going to be a lot harder to change

the ticket won't it

it feels like there's a an optimal time

to do it and then there's

it's a little harder after that but

possible all right

so i think the conversation is about

when to do it

not if because it's going to happen

it's either going to happen naturally

during the term it's going to happen

effectively because everybody will

assume that harris is running the show

but it's going to happen so

i think it's possible that having nobody

from the campaign talk about anything

could be a risk management decision in

which

they know that anything they say today

could make things worse

but there's nothing that could have been

said yesterday on the news in terms of

having yours or against talking to the

news there's nothing that could have

made it better

because whatever happens with a shake-up

of the ticket

would be you know a nuclear bomb of news

that would make anything that happened

on sunday unimportant

unless it was a mistake so the fact that

they

are playing to not make a mistake

that aggressively tells me something's

coming there's a little extra coming

and they're at least talking about it

i'm not predicting that they'll make the

change at the

convention i'm predicting that that's

the conversation they're having

all right i did a little uh

poll in which i asked people if they

thought the black lives movement

protests were making things better or

worse for

black americans now most of the people

who answered it were probably

people who were trump supporters

probably

more male probably more white

80 white something like that because

that's just who follows me

on twitter it's not my fault

[Laughter]

don't blame me i'm not the i'm not the

one who decides who follows me

i'm just telling you that's who follows

me if that if you don't think that's

diverse enough

i can't help it um but

anyway uh i think something like 83

percent i didn't check it recently

said that the the protests are making it

worse

for black people in the united states

now you might say to yourself well why

are you asking a bunch of white people

if this is making it worse for black

people well that's exactly the group to

ask

if you want to see how the people who

might have prejudice

are feeling because black people are not

trying to convince other

black people that they should get more

respect resources etc

they're trying to convince the very kind

of people who answered my poll

so that is the group you want to hear

from how do you feel

about this segment of society now that

they've expressed a

let's say the black lives matter

protests et cetera have been expressed

the way they have been expressed

and if you get 83 or somewhere in that

neighborhood

saying it made things worse for black

people

i think that probably did and here's how

i think it's worse

i think the the i hate to use this word

but you know what i'm talking about

the brand for black america

i think is ruined for a while

it might take 10 years to recover that

because it's such a bad look because

it's paired with

looting and paired with pictures of

destruction and violence etc

because all those things are paired it's

just become a terrible look

and then the black lives matter leaders

saying stuff such as

the looting is reparations

i don't know how you could do a worse

thing to the public

you're trying to help i mean really

if if black people in america thought

that something like

real reparations could be possible would

you want your

let's say people who present themselves

as leaders

the black lives matter leaders and

organizers would you want them saying

that the looting was reparations

that's exactly what you'd want them not

to say because that just took it right

off the table

you know i i was sort of pro looking

into reparations at least having

you know having a legitimate

conversation about what could and could

not be done

given constraints i was all for that i'm

all for any conversation and i think

that that was

you know worth having but not now

now it would just be a waste of time i

wouldn't spend one minute

talking about reparations you know

i'd wait another 10 years before

bringing that up

so i think things are worse for

reparations they're certainly worse for

racial harmony

and i think it's going to have the

biggest impact on employment

i think black employment is going to

take a hit because a lot of people are

going to say you know i just

don't want somebody who feels bad about

me

so it won't even be a question that the

employer feels bad about the employee

they'll just say why would i hire

somebody i think might have a bad

attitude about

me yeah and that would be fair

i don't know if it would be legal but it

would certainly be reasonable to

not hire people you have a high likely

a high degree of certainty that they

don't like you

all right um and of course black lives

matter has their priorities upside down

which is the worst thing

they're they're focusing on the police

uh element of it which

you know needs a look i'm not saying

that you should brush that aside

there there's something real that needs

to be looked at there and

made better but it is also their lowest

priority

or should be because it affects the

fewest people

highest priority of course is the

teachers unions

which are the source of ongoing

systemic racism so if black lives matter

can't even

fight systemic racism right they're

going after the lowest priority

instead of the highest priority the

teachers unions

it's hard to give them any credibility

so i think they're way behind

so cnn news is about q anon because that

embarrasses the president and about the

u.s postal service being

actually quite dependable so cnn

is trying to brainwash the country into

thinking mail service is dependable

let me ask you this have you ever had

somebody else's mail delivered to your

mailbox

i think you have i think yes

have you ever mailed anything that

didn't get to its destination

oh i think you have has anybody ever

mailed something to you

that you didn't get oh i think you have

you've had that experience i mentioned

before my father worked for the post

office for 30 years

every night he would come home and over

dinner he would complain about some

post office inefficiency so i'm as

biased as you could possibly be

about the efficiency of the post office

let me tell you one other little

anecdote

back in the days when i would draw the

comic strip dilbert

on paper and i would take a copy of it

and mail the original to my syndicator

who would then take copies and send it

off to the newspapers

well what happens once the the post

office where you mail your originals

what happens once they figure out your

name

what happened after they recognized my

name

and realized i was the dilbert creator

and i was sending a package that was

about the size of original art

what what do you think happened to my

original art

stolen yeah stolen was i the only

cartoonist

who put original art in the mail and

once the post office realized who was

mailing it

they stole it nope

it happened to other cartoonists i'm not

going to name names

but there's a well-known cartoonist who

couldn't mail his

his work because the post office

stole it every time

now i once had his years before there

were gofundmes

i wrote a story about somebody who's

having trouble

on a newsletter i used to do years and

years ago and

uh i think i asked people to i don't

know

send if they wanted to donate to this

person who was in a bad situation

they could send money to this post

office box now what i didn't realize

is that people wouldn't send it

necessarily checks

so something like 80 percent of the

people who send some money to that post

office box

put cash they put cash in it now

of course they they tried to disguise it

you know you put paper around the cash

or whatever

but as soon as the post office realized

that

any cash there must have been at least

one that you could sort of tell there

was

a dollar in there or something as soon

as the postal employees realized

that the mail going to this one post

office box had cash in it

how much of the cash got through after

the day that they realized it was cash

none none they stole every every bit of

it

you know there were like empty envelopes

that would show up and it just like

stopped one day

the moment they realized it was cash

they stole it all

so the democrats are trying to sell you

the most ridiculous

notion that the post office could take a

30

hit to their traffic uh and

given the the current amount of

efficiency

that we would have something like a

credible election that way

there is not really any chance of having

a credible election

with a massive mail-in votes it's just

not a thing

and it doesn't matter who wins and

doesn't even matter what happens

it is not credible by its

as a system in other words there's

nothing you can do

between now and then there's just

nothing you can do there's not enough

time

now let me test out a uh

i need you to fact check this for me

i saw a claim that you can tell

by the bar code and some codes on it on

the outside of your ballot

if you're a republican or a democrat can

somebody confirm that that's true or not

true

and the the claim is that under the

barcode there's this

what looks like a long series of random

numbers and letters

but one of the letters is either a d or

an r

indicating whether you're registered

democrat or republican

i don't know if that's true can somebody

fact check that for me

because again remember the rule if

something's a little bit

too on the nose it's probably not true

so if you hear that the the mail-in

ballots

uh tell have some kind of indicator on

it subtle one but you if you knew what

it was you could look for it

that the indicator will tell you if

you're democrat or republican

that is too on the nose meaning

if that's true well that would be

amazing

so usually things that if they're true

that would be amazing

are usually not true so somebody needs

to

confirm that this is true to me before i

will believe it

but there's a report out there that you

can tell just by looking at the envelope

if that's true there's really no chance

of

of a fair election no chance the the

the oh and and this is the funniest part

if you want to know how dumb the post

office is

uh and again i can say this because my

father worked for the post office

and he he was one of the dumbest guys

i've ever known

true story i hate to say that he's he's

no longer with us so i can say that

but the postal union

decided to endorse

biden that's right

while we're having this big national

debate about whether the post office

can be a major element of a fair

election the postal union

just endorsed one of the people running

now that should have been the end of it

the moment the postal union endorsed one

of the candidates

that was the point when the democrats

should have said oh

okay that really just changes everything

i

i see we can't use the system anymore

because now it's not only bias but it's

announced a bias they announced

a bias that's really the end of it

if we were any kind of a competent

country

we would just say oh well there's still

a debate about whether it could be done

fairly

but there's no longer a debate about

whether it can be seen as credible

and if you think those are the same

debate they're not

so let me say that again because it's

the most important thing

there's a debate about whether it can be

accurate

and that's separate from whether the

public

can ever see it as credible and once

once the

postal union has picked aside

that's it that's the end of any real

chance it could be seen as credible

it can't be because the people

delivering

the damn mail just told you who they

want to win

i don't think it could be any clearer

than that that you can't overcome that

hurdle

that that is a mountain that no amount

of hard work

can overcome you can do anything you

want

you could put a trillion dollars into

making sure that the

actual mail delivery was accurate it

would make

no difference at this point because

the postal union picked a preferred

candidate it's over

this question is absolutely over

but the but the fake news will try to

conflate those two things

and act like the credibility and the

actual

performance are really the same thing

and then there's another bit of magic

where they have to act as though

the post office does a good job

now as somebody who is bad at analogies

said on twitter

oh sure because by the way you can tell

that this is

a democrat talking because they only use

sarcasm instead of reasons so

don't look for the reason it's just

sarcasm oh

sure we we don't trust the post office

to to deliver the ballots but we do

trust it for our social security checks

well i think they do those

electronically but we do trust it for

all of our important other stuff oh no

the only important thing we don't trust

it for

is the election yeah all these other

important things we trusted for

just not this one thing right so that's

a democrat

argument it doesn't say anything it just

says it in that tone

so there's no actual thinking or

rational anything it's just that tone

now here's what's wrong with it of

course if somebody sends you a check

and you don't get it because it got lost

in the mail or it comes a few days late

that doesn't change too much does it

there isn't too much that's going to go

wrong

if your check is a couple days late or

even if it gets lost

you can always call the the person who

lost it as i have let me let me

tell you how many times that i've not

gotten a check

that was mailed to me

25 times maybe in the in the course of

my professional life

something like 25 times i've had to

put a stop on a check or ask somebody to

put a stop on a check because the mail

didn't deliver it

probably 25 times and

so the so the next thing that the news

will try to convince you

is that they're actually good when you

have a time

constraint so the reason these analogies

are not appropriate

is because these are low risk things

that don't have a timing element to them

whereas the election is the highest of

all risk

it's literally the highest risk in the

country if you get that wrong

everything else falls apart it doesn't

matter what you're doing right with your

economy

your anything else if if the election

doesn't hold as credible

everything else falls apart it's all

dependent on that that's the

that's the way the system is designed

so we're going to have a non-credible

result

and the news will try to convince us

that it was credible it's the most

incredible

the most amazing act of brainwashing

you'll ever see

all right um

oh so you notice that there are

riots and massive uh shootings and gun

deaths and stuff

and i guess chicago and portland and

seattle i don't know if new york is

still doing it and they're getting

pretty violent and terrible

and every day that they go on trump gets

closer to election because trump has

played this

perfectly from a political perspective

you could argue about you know

functionally but from a political

perspective

the best thing trump could have done

is continuously offer federal help

and let the cities decline it and then

once they've declined it

allow allow that to stand not overrule

them now the

the minor exception was federal people

protecting federal property but that's

an exception that's

that's federal property uh so by trump

not acting like a dictator in other

words not sending in troops and

overriding the cities and

and the states he looks very much not

like a dictator

and it makes the other side the

democrats running

these riot-torn cities look like

well do you want more of that because

that's what they want to bring you

nationally

i mean if i were the trump campaign i

would do nothing but show video from the

riots

and say this is what they want to bring

to you nationally because you know

that's not even a little bit wrong

that's not even a

slight bit of hyperbole what you're

seeing in the inner cities

is exactly what you would get everywhere

if those same kinds of policies were

taken nationally same kind of policies

in this case being

soft on crime um

cnn has managed to disappear all of the

riots

like it's like they don't exist and also

the kleinsmith stuff

so to so the country is having like

massive these big riots every night

and there was a coup that we now know

you know

at least one of the central uh players

of this coup this kleinsmith guy

and that's sort of not treated as news

[Laughter]

not really news

the the milly weaver thing i haven't

gotten interested in yet i guess that's

been removed

so i guess that's um let's say uh

contentious contentious no some

debatable

reporting there so i don't know what the

truth is on any of that

um here let me

see if i can clear something up that a

few times i made some twitter comments

that were incomplete

and therefore misleading and it goes

like this

why is it that the george floyd story

is a national story whereas the

uh the the five-year-old or the toddler

whatever he was

who was killed by his neighbor while he

was just

in his front yard why is one of them a

national story and the other is ignored

because fox news and others are trying

to say hey

what about this story is it only because

the victim was white and here's

what the public doesn't understand about

what makes a national story

now i deal with trying to turn things

that are not

stories into national stories that's

actually my job

so if i'm trying to get my book promoted

and let's say it was a

the original dilbert books i would tie

them to a national story which is hey

there's lots of downsizing and

offshoring back in the 90s

and here's a character that has the same

situation

so dilbert got on the cover of magazines

etc

because i did what everybody does when

they want to elevate

an individual story they attach it to

something that's already a story

you can't make a story out of nothing

it's really hard

but you can attach anecdotes to existing

stories and then they

they get some attention so the george

floyd thing was

attached to a national story you can

argue

whether it was a true or false story

but you can't argue that it was a

national high-level story

about black citizens being abused by

cops so because it was already a story

any video especially and it's the video

that makes it extra extra strong

it's not the video alone it still could

have been a story without the video

but i think you'd all agree the video

gave it that extra power

so i think i said on twitter it has to

be on video let me

let me adjust that to say doesn't have

to be on video

but it's way way way stronger if it is

so the problem with the child who is

killed by the neighbor

is it does not attach to any national

story

and when the conservative side of the

world tried to do that

and say hey hey this is a story too

why are you ignoring it why are you

being hypocrites they weren't

they weren't being hypocrites because

the child who was killed as tragic as

that

is and and unique in its in its way

in a bad way uh it just doesn't attach

to a national story

but suppose the democrats had run that

same story

it would have been a gun control story

a gun control story right it would have

been

a story about there are too many guns

and therefore look what happened this

kid got shot

but because the races were the wrong

races

it doesn't fit in with the black lives

matter story

doesn't fit in with the protesters so

places like cnn would be

disinclined to attach it to a national

story about gun control

because it would work against their

other propaganda now that part's true

but if you're a conservative i wouldn't

try

too hard yeah his his name is canon

uh hit net if that's if that's the right

name

um so i wouldn't try too hard

to get this attached to a national story

if you're a conservative

because it's going to get attached to

gun control now

you might say to yourself but wait scott

what about the

national story of black on white

murder what about that because and i

looked that up just see what the stats

are on that

um and i think it's something like

like i actually have those stats

um and it's always hard to find stats

when you're talking

on public and looking for your stats you

can never find your stats

how the hell did i not find that oh here

it is

there are more than twice as many black

and white homicides

compared to white on black so the black

population is

13 of the country white is 80

something percent but they have roughly

evil

equal number of crimes against the other

which would mean that the black on white

crime as a

percentage would be sky high

now why is that not a national story do

you ever ask yourself that

why is it not a national story that

white people are being slaughtered by

black people

now i use the word slaughtered to get

myself cancelled

because that's the part will be taken

out of context that's a lot of murder

there's a lot of murder going on

what is it what is it yeah it can't be

80 what's the percentage of

oh you know what it does uh i think in

the stats

the hispanic population was added to the

standard white population so i think in

the

when they do the stats they're adding

hispanic and white together as one

category

so then it gets into the 80s

not that you would do that necessarily

but that's what it is

so ask yourself why is that not a

national story

now of course you can explain it by

income

income groups and stuff like that

but it is not a story that you could

tell without getting canceled

can you imagine any national news

program doing a story

about the epidemic of black people

killing white people

you can't really you can't even imagine

it

in this country that could never happen

and

because dana can be used to make any

case you want

you could simply reverse and say oh sure

but

white people are killing just as many

black people so

you know it's about equal well my point

is

that we sort of decide what the story is

and then

things get attached to it but it's the

national press that decides what's the

story and they have decided it's not

good for their personal careers to

emphasize any

racial disparity in crime and so they

don't

and so therefore that story of the

tragic story of the child who got

murdered by the neighbor

doesn't tie to a national story so

if you think you should that would be

fair to say but if

you're wondering hey why are these being

treated differently

that's the reason it's just not tied to

a national story

and that's the way it always works all

right um

coronavirus deaths i think there are

over 175 000 for this country

predicted at least another 24 000

in the coming month so we will easily

it looks like past 200 000 dead

that's a number which i had asked people

who were saying it's just the flu

early on i said well if you think it's

just the flu can you commit to

a number beyond which you'd say oh god

that wasn't just the flu

and and one of the one of the what would

i say

coronavirus i don't want to say skeptic

but skeptic in terms

of how bad it would be

had said 200 000 would be the number at

which you'd say okay

all right for 200 000 deaths that's

definitely not the flu

especially since the 200 000 you only

got to

because of the closed down and the

severe punishment of the economy

so does anybody still argue it's just

the flu

has that population of people now shrunk

to the point where

it's a different conversation a

conversation about how to handle it

but not so much that's just the flu

so i don't know if that transition is

going to happen but i don't hear the

just the flu people

being as loud on social media anymore

speaking of statistics do you believe

that we will ever know

eve no matter when at any date in the

future

whether the u.s did worse or better than

other

countries do you think we'll ever know

that if you said yes

oh yeah we'll definitely know i mean

once it's all done

we'll look at the data lots of

researchers will dig in they'll find out

what worked what didn't

and we will know if president trump did

a good job

compared to the other leaders if you

believe that can be known

you've never been involved in this kind

of work meaning

data analysis of any kind we can't know

that

it is completely unknowable unless it

was some

major obvious thing that anybody could

tell but if you tried to

suss it out of the the data and the only

thing you're doing is saying i'm not

going to look at

i'm not going to look at the decisions

he made i'm just going to see how it

turned out

you know you're never going to be able

to do it and here's why

would it be most appropriate i saw this

yesterday

for the us as a whole to be compared to

the other wealthy countries would that

be a good comparison

well i would argue that you need to take

the islands out of it

i think you need to take your taiwan's

your south korea which is effectively an

island because of the dmz

you're you're new zealand's

and maybe you're australia that's a it's

a pretty big island but

uh but i think you need to look at the

island separately

and say okay these have the most in

common with each other because of

you know the island element of it and

see how the islands did

so if you're throwing the islands in

with wealthy countries

well already that result is less

credible

okay that's just one problem here's some

more

the united states is really 50 different

entities

you know 52 if you count i don't know

puerto rico and guam or whatever

so should we say that the

average of those all those entities is

what the united states is

or should we treat each of the states

like a country and say all right how did

new york state do

compared to europe right because

actually new york state's doing pretty

well

you know they had a they had a tough

spot wasn't their fault for the most

part

you could argue about the about the

the old people being put back in their

senior care places that looks like a

mistake in hindsight

i don't know if it was as obvious when

it happened obviously it wasn't

it wasn't obviously a mistake when it

happened

but wouldn't we find for example that we

have let's say

just guessing probably more than 40

states

who are doing better than europe

would that be true would we have 40 of

our states doing better than europe

maybe but then those european countries

would say wait wait wait

if you get to cherry-pick your states

we're going to say

if you take i'll just pick a random

all right we'll do the same thing we'll

take frankfurt out of our equation

i'm just guessing that frankfurt had bad

coronavirus i don't know if it did

we'll just take that out of our equation

how about that and then we beat you

again

so basically everybody who wants to look

good is going to have an argument well

don't count the you know the senior care

places

you have to take those out that was just

you know

tragic but you know if you're really

going to compare

that was just one event that had a big

impact you got to take that out

so people argue about whether that

should be in around whether the state

should be compared

whether you're on the same curve we

don't know

and then here's

here's the thing that's so completely

unknowable

and the thing that's going to drive me

freaking crazy for the next five years

and it goes like this as far as i can

tell

sweden did the dumbest strategy

and it worked out the best

now that of course creates a situation

where

you can say that they didn't have a good

strategy or that they did

you could just spin it any way you want

so here's why it was the dumbest plan

when sweden went for herd immunity the

assumption was they'd have to get the 60

or 70 percent infection

turns out it's probably closer to 20

because people seem to have some natural

immunity

and if sweden had known it was going to

be 20

well they're geniuses oh they're

geniuses

we'll talk about italy in a second

but

but sweden thinking that they were

heading toward herd immunity of 60 or 70

which by any measure would have been you

know quite a big

death toll probably would have crashed

their health care system

they probably would have ended up

closing more stuff they would have had

to more aggressively close down because

the public would say

too many people are dying or health care

is dying so if

so if sweden's plan had worked the way

they thought it would work

here's the key part if sweden's plan had

worked

the wastes we didn't thought it would

work if it gone exactly the way they

wanted it to

it would have crashed their whole

economy

because they thought it was 60 to 70

percent for herd immunity

they got incredibly lucky

i think now i think we'll probably have

to wait to see if this is real

but the only way that sweden got down to

basically

something like zero deaths lately is

because herd immunity was

a fraction of what everybody thought

nobody knew that

they did the dumbest strategy and hit a

home run

it was like they were blindfolded and

they were up to bat and somebody threw a

ball and they swung really hard

and they hit the fricking ball and they

got a home run and it wasn't because

they were good batters

they had a blindfold on right that's

what happened

so it's going to drive me crazy that we

will ever be compared to sweden's like

look how smart sweden was no they were

the dumbest

country but they got the luckiest

that's what it looks like to me

so if it turns out that 20 is hurt

immunity

and it also is true that the united

states has rampant

infections where europe does not who's

the smart one

right because now we've seen sweden

if we'd never seen sweden hit herd

immunity

we would also think it was 60 or 70

percent but now that we know it's closer

to

20 and we know that in all likelihood

i'm not sure you can say you know

anything but it seems

very likely that the reason that new

york city and new york state are doing

well

is that they have so many infections

that every they got to hurt immunity

and we might be the next one who hits

herd immunity simply because we didn't

control it that carefully

same as sweden so

if it turns out that we get back to a

functioning economy

and fewer deaths because we had herd

immunity faster than europe

who is the smart one would we be the

smart one because our economy would be

kicking back into gear

our deaths would be zero we'd be on the

other side of it like sweden

while europe is still trying to tamp

down every fire

i know we better close down again better

close down again better close down again

and they're going to end up in the same

place

so my my basic point is that

we will never know who did better than

anybody else because everybody was

guessing we all have good hindsight

none of the data is reliable and nobody

can decide what two things should be

compared

i will add this following prediction

i think that the reason that the herd

immunity is so

low somewhere 20 percent ish

might be because the vitamin d thing

i think we're going to find out that the

people who had the lowest

vitamin d as well as any other

medical problems were just the entire

the entire group that could have a

problem because it turns out that you

have low vitamin d if you're

african-american

if you're overweight if you've got

diabetes

if you're old if you're you know

probably in a senior care facility

like all of the things all the types of

people were at high risk

coincidentally also had

very low vitamin d i think in the end

we're going to find out that they were

the the ones at risk and

and if we had tested for vitamin d

levels we could have

really uh done better all right

now some of you are going to say how can

hurt immunity be 20

when we know that at least in one city

in europe it was over 50

and there are some prisons which are

also over 50 and there actually is a

perfectly good

reason why some environments don't get

hurt immunity at twenty percent and it

has to do with

density so if you got people packed

together such as

in a jail it doesn't matter that herd

immunity would normally be twenty

percent

they're just they're just basically

marinating in virus there's just so much

of a viral load

if you get enough infected people in a

small area like a jail

that in that case as with at least one

cruise ship as well

it'll it'll rush past 20 but those are

artificial environments where people

can't get away from each other too well

so it could be true that a prison or a

cruise ship

or a certain town could have a 50

situation for herd

another one might be 20 percent if

you're just living in the country

so those can be compatible all right

[Music]

cnn has a poll that shows uh

that the here's here's how it's worded

uh on i think breitbart

that joe biden's lead has evaporated in

the last two months

a new poll from cnn shows

this is a cnn poll showing biden's lead

has evaporated

now let me ask you this

let's say you were planning a coup

version 2.0 and let's say

let's say you wanted to maybe keep all

your options open

and one of the options would be to

replace the top of the ticket

with kamala harris if you were an

illegitimate news organization

whose leader jeff zucker was

personally and has for a long time been

a promoting

kamala harris what do you think your

polls would show right before the

democratic convention

i believe your polls would show

that biden has a lead

that evaporated because if cnn wants

kamal harris to take the top spot

they're going to have to create a

narrative that says that

biden cannot win the way he's going in

other words they're going to say

ah the weakness in the party it's

obviously the top spot

because you know and now his lead has

evaporated according to cnn

huh how convenient just when the

democrats are at that decision point

of deciding whether they need to make a

change at the top

just at the right time cnn that is very

pro-kamala harris coincidentally

produces their worst

poll results for joe biden huh

interesting what a coincidence

or is it

now i would say that one of the reasons

that maybe

trump will look better in all the polls

because i would expect all the polls to

start narrowing especially as we get

closer

to the vote and here's the thing that i

don't think you can

underestimate the degree to which

democrats

saw biden as a seat of filler and not a

real candidate

because as long as trump was running

against a generic

democrat that generic democrat didn't

have any flaws

and biden was really just a sea filler

he was just a stand-in a proxy if you

will

for a generic democrat a person who was

not trump

but now you put it in kamala harris

people say well she's the real president

and suddenly it's trump versus

an actual person who has actual

history and actual targets

and actual flaws it's the first time

until now trump was running against a

generic

even with biden and it was just a

generic now it's a real person

so you would expect that the flaws of a

real person

would seem bigger than the flaws of a

generic because that person can be

perfect

in your mind and the funniest part is

that the

battleground states the only ones that

matter

have how close are they they're dead

even

so the battleground states are dead even

do you know what dead even means in a

cnn poll

if the cnn poll says the battleground

states are dead even

statistically it's 49 to 48.

that means that trump is ahead of the

battleground states

there's no other way to see that because

you know

there's some shy trump supporters in

there

how shy are the trump supporters let me

put it to you this way

you know those gigantic trump boat

rallies

that you've seen on social media but you

don't see in the news because the news

doesn't cover it

those uh

i'm just looking at a comment that's

making me laugh the reason that trump

supporters have to have the rally in the

water

is because they can't do it on land

trump supporters could not put on their

trump hats

pick up their trump flags and say hey

let's meet in the park and have a trump

rally

it would be dangerous it's dangerous to

be on land

as a trump supporter that could be

identified it's

actually dangerous and so trump

supporters

didn't just find a cool way to show

their support it's like hey

boats are cool if we have a lot of boats

and it's the summer

it's going to look pretty cool let's

have a lot of boats yeah that's part of

it

that's part of it but the bigger part

is the republicans are not safe on land

democrats could have a pro-biden

[Music]

parade and they would know they would

not be harassed

maybe verbally but not physically right

democrats can have a rally on dry land

you live in a country where this sort of

this sort of snuck up on

you it's not an accident that the trump

supporters had to leave

the continental united states i mean

they're still in

u.s waters but they had to leave the

continental united states

literally physically leave it leave the

united states

to have a trump rally i mean they're

still in in our waters but

they have to leave the the dry land

that's not a joke

there's no joke there that is actually

what happened

they couldn't feel safe on dry land

now you tell me that these people are

telling the truth when pollsters call

them and say who do you support

not a chance not a chance

i told you that when a pollster called

me the first i think the first time it's

ever happened

um the moment i realized it was a

pollster

and i realized what the question was

going to be about in my head i said

oh i'm going to tell them biden because

the last thing i'm going to do is tell

them the truth

and you know it turns out they asked me

if i was registered to vote and i said

no and that was the end of it so i

didn't have to lie

but i would have so

at the moment it looks like there's no

real chance that biden

can win as the top of the ticket and

that means that cnn is going to soften

up the public by giving some

low poll numbers you should expect that

any other poll

polling company that's friendly to biden

is going to show his

his his lead narrowing you should see

all of the left-leaning polls narrow

quickly

because they're going to try to create

the story that well

sooner than it's sooner than better

sooner is better to replace the top of

the ticket

better get this going better hurry up

because he's not going to win you look

at the polls

he's not going to win you better put

somebody stronger in there hey

who do we put in there calmly hear us

all right

uh somebody says dude trump was holding

two rallies a week

until covent on landed everything

well that was trump trump has the

advantage of having lots of security

and a secure location uh that's still

safe

but if you were to just say hey why

don't we have like a trump parade

or why don't we all meet in the park and

we're just it's just us

there's no trump it's just us what do

you think would happen

it's a different situation have you

noticed that the people who disagree

with me are just bad at

analogies i think the democrats have

basically

two modes of arguing a bad analogy

and sarcasm and sometimes they they

combine the two

because you saw that even even though

that was a written comment

about the person who said uh that trump

has had rallies

even the written comment was written as

sarcasm

dude trump has had two rallies and

everything

even spelled everything so in that

sarcastic way and there thing

they can't actually have any kind of

irrational debate

it's so is so universally true it's just

a bad analogy

with sarcasm and they actually think

that that's some kind of

thinking some kind of point

it's really not it's actually not it's

just sarcasm

sarcasm isn't reasons and analogies are

not reasons either they're just

something that reminded you of something

else that's it

that's the whole thing

uh yeah try to put a trump bumper

sticker on your car

better yet put a trump bumper sticker

over

any car that you think is a biden

sporter

no don't do that their cars will get

wrecked

take that back do not do that

although i know it's been done as a

prank

somebody says warren i don't think so

but

you know nothing can be ruled out at

this point i don't think warren would

have a chance against trump

uh somebody says what's up with trump

helicopters

flying with four missiles why wouldn't

it

you don't think you don't think air

force one has defense

i would expect the helicopters to be

harmed

why wouldn't they be all right

uh somebody says

the comment was funny jesus ease up

boomer

can i see that now first of all the

comment

was meant to be a serious comment that

that trump has

rallies so here's somebody who can't

tell the difference between humor

and not humor actually can't tell the

difference and so

has decided to call me a boomer because

didn't have any other reasons

so so i guess that's the third argument

there are three democrat arguments

bad analogy sarcasm and calling people

to boomers

kind of it but this one won't have to

worry anymore because he is now

relegated to the

blocked world goodbye

all right that's all i got uh did you

cash out your kamala bet well she's not

official yet

she's not official i have two bets on

kamala one for the top of the ticket and

one for vice president

both of them were long odds so if either

one of them comes in

it pays for the other one so i'm at

least going to win for vice president

which would pay for my other bet and and

more

uh but if she becomes the top of the

ticket

i'm going to make some serious money so

i still have those bets in place oh

q anon um i

i don't know what to say about q i it

seems like cnn wants to make that more

of a story

uh q has become a bit of a religion i

think people

i think people just enjoy the whole cue

thing i just can't take it too seriously

somebody says if i see an american flag

i think trump supporter i think you're

right

i think you're right i don't think that

the democrats use the american flag

anymore

i think that they too see it as a

republican symbol

all right that's all i got for now and i

will talk to you

tomorrow slaughter beaters at 100

percent