Episode 1535 Scott Adams - You Won't Want to Miss Today's Show Because it Will be Awesome Like Usual

well good morning and welcome to welcome to what welcome you know the best thing that's ever happened to you yeah a lot of people today woke up and did not come to watch coffee with scott adams and participate in the simultaneous sip we pity them we pity them because all of you are going to experience something special that's right that's right user you're going to take it up a notch and all you need is a copper marker glass that tanker tells us to iron that canteen jogger flask a vessel of any kind fill it with the liquid you like best i like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dope being here today the thing that makes everything better unless my camera is in the wrong orientation oh damn it the camera's in the wrong orientation i'm going to add that to my checklist but join me now for the simultaneous sip this will make everything except your screen orientation better wait it's even improving the screen orientation didn't see that coming turns out we have a solution for that it was only on locals so if you're on youtube you didn't see the difference all right much better i don't know if that turned all of your screens upside down for a minute well uh do you all know kanye west everybody know who kanye west is that's a trick question there's nobody named kanye west he's changed his name to just y e which i think he calls yay it's not ye right is it because it's kanye so it's yay right yeah he's a pretty good name i i like it when uh people who are already super famous uh make us think about their name change because it keeps us in their memory so uh i liked it when prince did it just because it made us continually talk about him and i like it when yay is doing it okay it's just a good technique it's a very persuasive thing it's an easy way to stay in the news and i think everybody called him yay in person so it just made sense but the interesting thing is that he arrived on a flight i guess people's on the airport wearing a halloween kind of mask which could be described as white face could be described as white face it was a caucasian mask how do you feel about that well i love the fact that he did it because he just does anything that i mean he he's willing to do things that grab your attention and they're provocative and yeah it was funny uh but the weirdest thing is that he's reportedly meeting with michael cohen trump's uh you know fallen from grace lawyer what's that all about what what is kanye talking to michael cohen about does anybody know do you even have a guess like what what possible business could the two of them have oh divorce yeah but divorce he's not really a divorce lawyer yeah i don't know it's weird um but maybe we'll find that out there's a story out of india about a monkey killing a man by hurling a brick off a second floor of a building monkey threw that brick killed that man isis has already claimed responsibility but cnn is reporting that it was caused by climate change because there's one thing you know about climate change it will cause monkeys to start hurling bricks if you think this is a one-off well you haven't watched cnn because anything that's a little bit unexpected means climate change so climate changes are making monkeys crazy and they're starting to look for blunt objects to throw out humans and they've got their first kill and an idiot the true part is the monkey part the fake part is the climate science part i made that up if somebody's new here you might actually think that cnn reported it was because of climate change remember parity and reality have merged now so i actually had to step back and say oh no actually cnn is not reporting that climate change is causing monkeys to roll bricks here's news from the simulation news from the simulation it's a low budget operation i have to do my own stings but the news from the simulation spokane police department is investigating the origin of the explicit video an x-rated video that showed up on screen uh on a new show in spokane so i think it was the weather person was doing the news and suddenly uh an x-rated scene showed up on the screen uh here's the simulation part it was a local news station whose call letters are k r e m t v how do you pronounce that k r e m would you pronounce it creme maybe maybe maybe creme or or is the simulation messing with us again is it a coincidence that the one local news station that had some porn on it was cream tv cream tv i'm not making this up i'm just telling you the news yeah obviously we live in a simulation there's no other explanation all right here's another mystery so you all know there's uh y'all y'all know there's a uh supply chain problem and it has to do with uh trucking shortages do you know the reason for the trucking shortage anybody anybody do you know the reason for the trucking shortage well before i tell you the reason for the trucking shortage let me give you a rule of thumb for knowing a lie from the truth now here's what i learned from a friend of mine and i didn't believe it the first time i heard it but if you if you follow this rule and just keep it in mind watch how often it predicts not a hundred percent but it's really predictive and it goes like this the truth usually has one good reason to it right there are exceptions of course but if something is true there's usually one good reason and if there's more than one good reason they're usually obvious ones that you can also see okay so when you have more than one good reason offered the more reasons that are offered the less likely the base story is true you got that if there's just one or maybe two if there are obvious reasons given for an explanation for a thing probably true or could be true but if you have seven explanations for a thing and they're all different there's something going on it means either nobody knows what's going on or somebody's lying right now let's look at the trucking shortage what's the one reason for it there isn't there are multiple reasons there's some some i saw in the comments that truckers don't want to get vaccinated maybe there's truckers or too many of them are on meth they can't pass or people want to be truckers or can't pass the drug test maybe there's something about california requiring only newer trucks be used for climate and and environmental reasons so that there would be a limit of trucks because they're not enough new ones there's a issue of this supplies to fix the trucks themselves so the supply chain is broken but included in that broken supply chain is the parts to fix the trucks that broke the supply chain so that's another explanation given so the trucks have to be green we don't have enough green ones let's see here's some other reasons uh truck driving schools not enough of them they're too slow they're kind of expensive uh pete judge pointed out the demand desire so we're just because of the pandemic you know keeping demand low for a while it's just a little excess demand how about low wages and bad treatment of customers low wages for truck drivers customers treat them poorly i mentioned drug testing in the uk they've got a also a supply chain problem and they blame a backlog of truck driver license requests i guess there are 50 000 people who have applied to be truck drivers in the uk but they can't get through now what are the odds given all these different reasons what are the odds that the uk would be having a problem at the same time we would for a different reason just think about it what are the odds there would be a massive supply chain problem in the united states with all these different reasons given and the uk just coincidentally would also have a supply chain problem for a completely different reason that the democracy can't process them what's going on what's going on now somebody says it's really the same reasons in the uk or similar could be wouldn't rule that out here's my here's my take on it i think there's something we're going to find out about this story that we don't know there's something we're going to find out that we don't yet know it could be that it's just this weird perfect storm that all these things happened at the same time and and really the pandemic was sort of behind most of them right not all of them but the pandemic you know exacerbated a thing that was already maybe on the edge i would that's believable could be but it's happening in the uk same time they're getting the same perfect storm and what about other places i don't know so here's my take on this i think there's some big ugly secret coming a big ugly secret coming because let's just go through the the reasons given and let me tell you how compelling or not they are i believe that in the context of an emergency it wouldn't be hard to train new people quickly how long does it take to learn to drive a truck two weeks two weeks couldn't you get there in two weeks i suppose they loosened maybe i don't know the marijuana condition of the drug testing i don't know if that's already happened but suppose they did that just because it's an emergency they say all right in the short run we're gonna lower our standards how about using trucks that are not as green temporarily and then going back to the green trucks when you can don't all of these problems look solvable to you don't they there are a whole bunch of problems but they all fall in that category of they look really solvable but they don't look like they're getting solved something's wrong right imagine trump in charge and he realizes that there's a supply chain problem you don't think he can fix that because i think he could because whatever is causing this is fear bureaucracy or red tape right it's like fear bureaucracy red tape inertia politics maybe something like that those are all trump's sweet spots that's exactly what you want to trump for remember i don't say trump is the best at all things presidential i think he was not so good at her health care you know although he did some good things there too but there are some things he's just sort of perfect for the border is one negotiating with china hard that's another north korea he was perfect for it but and this this truck shortage i think he'd be perfect for this because he has exactly the qualities you need but biden has none of them biden has none of them so that's why we're here i saw an interesting concept by twitter user phil reed he was making an analogy to my talent stack idea where you add talents together that makes sense to make yourself more valuable and he said there's a similar thing with the apple ecosystem meaning that if you start getting into apple products because they work together you know the the fact that i could go from my phone to my ipad to my computer and i'm still in the same place etc um and a number of other things that make the product work together he makes the point that you don't have to be the best at any of those things if you've built it if you built an ecosystem where they all work together and i thought that was somebody says synergy yeah i mean you could say it's just synergy but i think it gives a little more meat on the idea to compare it to the talon stack on idea and say it's a an ecosystem stack if you will everything from your watch to your computer all have something in common and they work together as i just thought it was an interesting take on that big news about facebook they're changing their name do you know why facebook is changing their name anybody anybody why are they changing their name well in my opinion well first of all they may have some baggage they want to get rid of and i also think facebook doesn't sound like a current name does it having the word book in a tech company name it's really not a forward-looking name is it it was fine for a while um but the biggest reason they're changing the name is that their business is going to change in a big way and i would argue that this change in facebook will be one of the biggest changes in human evolution one of the biggest changes in human evolution like real big like as big as opposing thumbs like that big here's why um apparently they're going to go uh balls to the wall into the metaverse or the virtual worlds which are created by 3d you know graphic stuff and ar artificial reality and virtual reality so facebook is creating an entire new reality multiple realities and each of these realities will have a function so one of the fake realities might be a conference room where you put on your goggles and you go to that conference room and you're you're in that room others might be vacations you might be able to take a group vacation somewhere just with your goggles on you might be able to fly somewhere just with your goggles on and i would argue you don't see how big this is i don't think any of you can see how big this is the only people who can see it are the people who have tried the technology if you've tried it you know how big this is because right now it's it's sort of in its infancy in a way maybe you know maybe it's sophomore year or something so it's not ready for prime time i would say but oh that's dangerous it's not ready for prime time but it's going to get there really quickly and fairly obviously and i this is huge let me tell you what i know i did get a virtual reality system a few years ago just to check it out and just a few years is probably completely different now but when when you have the virtual reality headset on your your experience is so rich it can be better than real life it's a problem the virtual reality can be better than real life and maybe a lot imagine if you will that you're unattractive i know hard for us to imagine because the people who watch me are unusually sexy but imagine you're somebody else and you're not the sexy beast that i know you are how much are you going to like living in the real world where people treat you like elephant man versus living in the virtual world where you look like your avatar and people interact with you as the avatar which one are you going to want to spend more time in yeah disabled people now well actually let me take that back i think you trap with that comment you trapped me into uh saying something uh ill-liberal is that the right word if we assume that disabled people and let's say differently abled disabled by itself is not as woke as it should be we'll say differently abled people if you make the assumption that they need a virtual reality you kind of that's kind of not cool you know what i mean because just that being differently able doesn't mean you have to leave reality or something so i guess i was a little offended by your suggestion even though i totally understand it so your suggestion is completely fair but i don't know if did anybody else feel that if if you talk about uh differently abled people and i agree with that that wording by the way uh you can certainly see that there would be people in that category who would like the virtual worlds better so that the comment is perfectly fair but i don't know just just imagining that there's a group that needs to get out of reality is i guess i said the same thing with unattractive people if you are blind interesting if you're blind you're not going to have any access to this that's a really interesting point yeah i wonder if there's a way to get a virtual site i'll bet there is i'll bet you could get virtual sight someday something you know directly yeah neuralink kind of thing directly linking to your brain maybe someday anyway i don't think you realize how gigantic that is it's really gigantic there's some fake news about southwest airlines fake in the sense that it's being reported in an incomplete way so hannity was tweeting this and what hannity said was breaking southwest airlines drops plan to place unvaxed workers on unpaid leave now if you hear that they stopped their plan to put unvaxed workers on unpaid leave you would say to yourself hey they're going to put people who are unvaccinated on unpaid leave or they were before is that true it's true-ish but it's missing too much context right it's true-ish the context is missing is that the only people involved were the people who had applied for exceptions religious or otherwise and had not gotten an answer yet so to me all they're doing is delaying the mandate until they can work through the number of people asking for exceptions so to me it looks like nothing to me it just looks like nothing like nothing changed except they just delayed it until they feel they can do it right so i feel like this was fake news to imagine that they reversed the policy i think all they did was make a practical decision that they couldn't do everything as quickly as they wanted i think that's all we'll see we want more news might come out of that i would like to call out one of my internet friends for cognitive dissonance now this is somebody i interact with a lot might even be watching so if you're watching i'm going to be talking about you in a moment so this is nothing personal about the person okay so i'm going to say something that you might think is personal it's not because it's somebody i like but this person i believe is is experiencing cognitive dissonance and when you experience cognitive dissonance you're the only one who doesn't know that's the nature of it right so if i experience it i will swear i'm not you're the only people who know nobody else is going to know all right so i'm talking about justin hart all right justin i see you're guessing so stop guessing his name is justin hart great guy uh interacts a lot uh on twitter have had lots of interactions with him but he's more on the let's say i don't want to characterize other people too much but i say he's on the skeptical side of uh the pandemic conversation it's on the skeptical side and here's something he said today talking about the southwest airlines story so he said in a tweet uh quote they caved they'll cave more when the next deadline comes again since now that part i'm not arguing with that that whether they caved or whether the cave again so no argument about that but the next part tell me if i'm experiencing cognitive dissonance because you're the only ones who know right i can't tell i think justin is experiencing it so here's the next sentence you ju you be the judge okay he says since 40 40 to 60 of all infections are coming from fully vaccinated people now first of all i don't know if that's true but let's let's accept as true that there are a lot of vaccinated people getting uh getting infected so that part's true right i don't know if it's 40 to 60.

that's i'm not sure that's right but let's just say there's a lot of them right somebody says it's absolutely true and i'm seeing other people saying it's not true so i want everybody to know that some people say it's true and some people say it's not true i don't know i don't but it doesn't matter to my point we all agree that there are a lot of vaccinated people getting infected right we're all on that page a lot of vaccinated people are getting infected all right so here's what he says because the 40 to 60 percent of all infections are coming from fully vaccinated people he concludes that the mandates seem superfluous do you think the fact that vaccinated people also get infections and quite frequently does the fact that they're vaccinating make the mandate seem superfluous now hold on hold on i didn't say is the mandate a good idea in your opinion that's not the question so you're not judging whether mandates are good or bad all right nobody's judging mandates i know your opinion on mandates i don't like them most of you don't like them so we're not talking about whether mandates are good or bad that's not the topic the topic is whether the fact that many vaccinated people get infections does that make a mandate senseless is that fact important to the decision i see yeses i see lots of yeses that that's important to the decision i see one now but mostly yeses so most people are agreeing with justin that a mandate is superfluous now you know that superfluous means completely unnecessary right everybody got that that the mandate would be have no effect basically have no effect if uh so many vaccinated people are getting infected how many people think that's a good conclusion there's somebody here who still thinks i like mandates how could you be so misinformed i've only said it every single time i've been on live stream i think every single time i set up i oppose mandates because enough people are vaccinated all right here's what i had problem i have with that the the reason that these airlines want people to get vaccinated has nothing to do with how many of them got infected it's just not part of the decision so it seems like cognitive dissonance to imagine it even matters because here's the calculation that if you are vaccinated you're unlikely to die and you're far less likely to spread it now those two things are agreed by science right i can't i mean i haven't tested it myself but science is very clear assuming they're right very clear that it takes your risk of death down to trivial and it uh your risk of spreading it is much less i see james say wrong so there are people who will be on yeah false i'm saying ochango says so here's here's my challenge to you i'm saying that my audience is split on this my understanding is that it's really really clear like super clear way way clear like multiples clear like the clearest thing you could ever know the vaccinations reduce your risk and risk and the amount that you spread some somebody's saying marginal i'm saying that's completely wrong that it's not marginal it's more like seven to one eleven one two hundred to one i think i read is like 200 times more likely you'll spread it if you're not vaccinated 200 times i don't know if that's right but say it's 11 times or 10 times whatever it is it's not close right so the rat race says lol shark the shark by telling you something you didn't know because most of you are actually confused by the fact that lots of people get infected while vaccinated and therefore the vaccinations don't have a purpose that is so wrong according to science now if science is wrong well i guess we all got fooled but you do know that they're unanimous right it is unanimous let me say it again i'm pretty sure that even the doctors who are the rogue doctors who are telling you it's a bad idea to get vaccinated and you watch a lot of them right how many of you have watched doctors say hey i'm not so sure about these vaccinations you know the rogue doctors a lot of them say that but as far as i know i think even the rogues agree that you're far less likely to die from covin as opposed to the vaccine itself and that your risk of spreading it is way way less um i think those are things that even the critics agree with by the way so here's my challenge to you i say that even the experts who are anti-vaxx would agree with the statement that the vaccine reduces your risk of covid and your risk of spreading it vastly even the critics so that's my challenge to you find out any critic somebody says israel that's been debunked i know you've read news stories that say the opposite but they've all been debunked go check it yourself yeah you do the research you won't find any experts who don't who disagree with me so since i know that justin who i was talking about here since i know him to be someone who's following this topic closely and also you know smart guy i feel as if his previous skepticism is maybe triggering him into cognitive dissonance now as i've argued before you need a trigger there has to be something that makes your worldview not make sense that triggers the cognitive dissonance i would argue i don't have that trigger because as far as i know i haven't predicted anything that was wrong or at least relative to this specific topic obviously i've predicted things that were wrong oh somebody says i got vaccinated well that's a good would that be a trigger would it be a trigger to think that i was right because here so that was a good that's a good comment did you catch that somebody said that i'm vaccinated and that could be my trigger because i made a decision therefore i have to be consistent with my decision but here's my defense of that my defense is that i don't know that i made the right decision hear that clearly i took a what i thought was a calculated risk that had a risk of going wrong in either direction so i'm open to the fact that i made the wrong decision or that new information would make it look like a bad or worse decision that it was i'm completely open to that there's nothing that would change my i know view of myself if i turn down to be completely wrong on the vaccination stuff because to me that would be interesting i would admit it immediately i wouldn't be embarrassed because i just don't feel embarrassment for stuff like that and i've said from the beginning of the pandemic a lot of people are going to be really wrong don't hold it against them we're all doing the best we can you know we're guessing we're doing the best we can and so i put myself in the same category that i put others in which is yeah we're going to get some stuff wrong and people might die literally i could be killing people literally because if i've said something that persuaded somebody to make a choice they went to maine and it turned out to be the wrong choice i could be killing people right now and that's not even a little bit hyperbolic so i'll tell you what protects me a little bit from cognitive dissonance and again how would i know but i'm open to being wrong and embrace it and i don't have to protect against it so i don't have an ego wall that says oh if i'm wrong this is going to be bad for me i don't if i'm wrong i'm just i'm just wrong i'll talk about something else i'm pretty sure i can live with that vax does not reduce the spread this is what right lane bandit says in all caps vax does not reduce the spread it reduces death get educated okay let me say this as clearly as possible all the experts disagree with you there's nothing you could google that would that would agree with you nothing nothing there's no expert that has your opinion even the people who agree with you that you shouldn't get vaccinated don't have that opinion i'm seeing bud say bandit is right all right so here's your challenge find me a uh some scientists who who are not in some sketchy blog site you know some some credible looking thing that suggests that all the experts are wrong and and and see if he can change my mind all right change my mind uh doctor no dr bhattachary does not say that nope nope all the ones you think say that are saying something different i think that might be the confusion because there are people who are anti-vaxx so i'm not i'm not saying there are no anti-vaxx people i'm saying that the reason they're anti-facts is that they think there's more risk from the vaccination than the covet and i'm not even arguing that point because i wouldn't know one way or the other there are other reasons for anti-facts right there are other reasons and that they're not the ones i'm talking about right now yeah we're not talking about natural immunity anything all right so i feel that most of you are being triggered into cognitive dissonance and this is what's going to happen here's how you can tell those of you have been triggered into cognitive dissonance if in fact that's what's happening it looks like it it looks like really clear let me say as clearly as possible i really know how to spot cognitive dissonance it's been my hobby for decades i really really am good at spotting it i think in other people again nobody can spot it in themselves but i would say that i'm as close as you can get to an expert as spotting it in the wild and this is definitely it if i'm wrong about this i'm wrong about everything this is cognitive dissonance now here's how you can tell most of you will misinterpret what i'm saying you're going to interpret it as being pro-vaccination nope nope i did not say that i never encourage you to get vaccinated hear it clearly but many of you will think that's exactly what you heard some of you will think that i said the vaccinations stop all spread nope nope never said that said the opposite so watch how the people who think they're disagreeing with me are going to be disagreeing with an illusion of what i said and they're going to be positive they're right because they're accurately disagreeing with an illusion but they're not disagreeing with me and they're the ones in all caps all the people in all caps are in cognitive dissonance i guarantee that i can promise you that the all caps people are having an experience that their world is blowing up right now all right i think that's enough on that topic way too much so uh beyonce is in a commercial for uh tiffany and apparently they turned her white now i don't know what the real story is but in the video her skin is lightened to the point where it would be hard to detect if she has any african-american yo influence and it looks like it's lightened to me i mean i don't know if it's makeup or the camera work but she's sitting next to jay-z who looks exactly like jay-z like he doesn't look like he's been lightened well she sure did and i think tiffany's going to have some explaining to do on that um rasmussen asked how confident are you that joe biden is physically and mentally up to the job of president what do you think people said here's what they said uh 41 percent are either very confident or somewhat confident that joe biden is up to it physically and mentally 41 that's pretty high isn't it yeah how many of them were very confident very confident not somewhat confident but very confident and so it's within the 41 the very confidence were 27 27 are very confident very confident that joe biden's 100 yeah you're i'm laughing because the regular viewers know i always point out that every pole seems to have 25 percent of morons you'd have to be a to think that joe biden is is right on the ball now i'm okay with the people who say you know they're somewhat confident some more confident i think that you know that's enough of a hedge i'll give you that you know that that just sounds like somebody prefers their person in in the office uh but 58 were uh not confident in joe biden or one way or the other strongly or or weakly not confident and two percent were unsure two percent were unsure can't we add them to the not so sure there that he's if you're unsure shouldn't you have answered that you're not confident what does unsure mean so apparently we found the two percent who are the dumbest the dumbest people in in the world if you're unsure you're unsure apparently they don't know what confidence means are you confident no i'm unsure okay so you're not confident no i didn't say that i just said i'm unsure oh well rasmussen also asked is biden doing the job of president or are others making the decision for him how do you think this went 53 percent say others are making the decision you realize that must include at least a number of independents and or democrats to get to 53 38 say he is doing the job okay so ron desantis is opening up some ports in florida to help ease the backlog in california so it turns out that all these problems that they have in california i guess they don't have them in florida so does that give you any pause do you think that truck drivers in florida are more pro vaccination do they do fewer fewer hits of meth in florida can they can they get better uh truck parts in florida are there more trucks i don't know none of this is quite fitting is it now i'm not so sure that whatever ron desantis is going to do in florida will make that much difference so it might be a slight you know uptick so he might be making more political hay out of it than is really warranted but let me say about this about that ron desantis surfs the headlines and the zeitgeist better than i've ever seen apparently he has a political strategy that i consider brilliant this is just one of the best things i've ever seen and you don't really get a sense of it until you see how consistent he is over time which is that there's some national story of interest and that he finds the populist way to approach it or the helpful way or the smart way or the scientific way or the you know the better strategy you know protecting the old people first whatever so he's just the master of inserting himself into the story that's already there he can insert himself into any story and make himself look like the only smart person in the room over and over again this is brilliant political now again i don't know if any of the things he's doing make any difference at all i really don't i don't even have much of an opinion on the specifics of his policies i'm just saying i've never seen anybody do politics better than this this is the best politics i've ever seen this is better than trump sorry because trump causes trouble to get attention and it's very successful made him president right but if trump didn't exist desantis would walk into the nomination he would just walk into the nomination don't you think like who would it be if it's not desantis it's just a great strategy all right neil cavuto um you know him from fox news has covet now can somebody give me a fact check i know that neil cavuto has quite publicly struggled with his weight for a long time but in current pictures he looks like he lost a bunch of weight did he six yes and you're saying he he also has uh multiple sclerosis he's doubled with that for years i guess but it looked like he he lost a bunch of weight can you confirm that he's oh i've really come around on desantis well he's still not exciting but damn he's he's good at this stuff um yeah so i'm seeing at least one confirmation there but good for him so the first part is if if he lost a bunch of weight during the pandemic and he did it for all the right reasons good for him he may have he may have saved his own life now he was vaccinated too so he'll probably be fine but i just like to call out anybody who did the right thing during the pandemic and the right thing was to get fit if you didn't do that you played the pandemic really wrong if you didn't add any skills while you had you know a weird opening to do it you played it wrong it looks like he might have played it right if he lost weight tentatively that's that's my guess and he's the other thing that makes him kind of important to the story is that he is a walking comorbidity or people you know may think of it that way because he's had public health problems somebody said he's a cancer recovery too i think that's true um so if he does well because he's vaccinated that's gonna be a story and i think that would be influential all right uh cnn has good context for a change you're going to hate this this is where i'm going to lose most of you first of all cnn has some good context on the story i know you don't like that but when do you hear it you're not going to like this at all um and you're also going to say that all the numbers in the story are wrong all right you ready um how many people let me do a test with you how many people are confirmed now confirmed is the the operative word here how many are confirmed to have died in the united states from the vaccination itself let's call it the covenant shot not a vaccination how many people in the united states have died in the entire pandemic so far from the the shot go zero is wrong three somebody says three really fifteen thousand i'm saying thousands now i'm talking confirmed remember so those of you are guessing thousands you know those are not thousands that are confirmed so just confirmed i'm saying 30 17 2000 less than 10 less than 100 uh 18 000 25 000 666 52 maybe 10.

here's the number that cnn reports uh three three does that match your your assumption do you believe that three people are confirmed doesn't mean only three just confirmed do you believe that that's what cnn's reporting how about that vares database because you know there's all kinds of stuff in there right that's where people report the bad reactions to uh vaccinations how many here's the second question um how many people have been how many deaths are reported to vares remember there are three that are confirmed but how many have been reported to vares go the verse says how many people died from the covet shot go how many i see thousands thousands anybody youtube forty-two thousand fourteen thousand three point five trillion good guess we're wrong three uh the answer is 8 600.

so 8600 deaths have been reported to the the vares database three have been confirmed three now is the problem that we're really really slow at confirming things or is a problem that they're not real i don't know suppose they're real suppose every death reported to varys was real how bad would that be yeah if every death reported to varys was real and that seems deeply unlikely if they were all real would that tell you that and that's all you knew would that tell you to get the shot or not here's your next question if 8 600 people died and if that were real and we all know that's not real but if it were real would that tell you not to get the shot somebody says yes i see some no's i see some yeses yeses all right well here's how you could have seen that in uh context 390 million doses have been administered and that amounts to .0021 or about two deaths for every hundred thousand doses which is way less than how many people die of covet remember the all caps people are always in cognitive dissonance so if you if you're going to type in all caps just know i'm calling you out all right so this is cnn's reporting by the way this is not me saying any of this so according to cnn if you looked at all the doses given there are only two deaths for every hundred thousand but how many kova deaths are there for every hundred thousand so this is cnn two deaths from every hundred thousand doses even if the vares database is correct that's how it would only be two for every hundred thousand how many does covet kill out of a hundred thousand if the if it's true that the vaccination is two how many does cove would kill 220 right um that's a hundred times worse two versus over two hundred so if these numbers were right even if the vares database was accurate and you know it isn't it's way way high well it could be low i suppose but you know it's not accurate um according to these numbers it would be a hundred times smarter to get the vaccination if this was the only criteria and it's not right i i get it there are other criteria but if this were the only criteria the vares database risk versus the coveted risk itself it wouldn't even be close it would be a hundred to one cassandra says scott you're in deep dissonance and i wouldn't know so if you believe that the problem is my end let me let me say as clearly as possible i wouldn't know that's what cognitive dissonance does but if the problem was on your end you wouldn't know can we agree on that if the problems are your end you don't know if the problem is on my end i don't know that's what it is that's the definition of cognitive dissonance all right so i'm not suggesting that you should get vaccinated can i can i say that i am not suggesting that you get vaccinated nor am i suggesting that you don't do you know why why the hell would you take my advice to get vaccinated can you think of anything dumber than that well i mean seriously what would be dumber than taking my advice on your medical situation right i mean i'll tell you to drink coffee and exercise you know i feel safe about that but don't take my advice and don't let me persuade you in any way and also don't believe anything the cnn reports i'm reading cnn's report let me give you an example of how bad this cnn data is you ready and i know if if andres is watching this he's or he's already screaming at his screen i read this and you you probably missed it but he said it would be 390 million doses administered they're actually calculating the deaths on doses versus people what so they're acting as though your risk per dose is the one that you're you're looking at not your risk of being vaccinated versus not being vaccinated now it's not crazy to do that because your death probably does follow a specific dose but it's not going to follow the second one is it how many people died when they got the second dose zero maybe do you think that people lived through the first dose and then the and then the second or the third one took them out i don't think so i don't think so so this this is off by at least 100 percent right so cnn's numbers are off by at least a hundred percent and this still makes the case let me say it again cnn numbers are probably off by a hundred percent and it still makes the case that is way smarter to get vaccinated the not not even close even if their numbers are off by 100 even if the vares is off by a thousand percent it's still according to their numbers way smarter to get vaccinated that's not me saying i'm talking about what other people are saying right only in the short term somebody says yes so if you were looking at your full risk of getting the shots versus not you would have to look at the long term that's still unknown so as clearly as i can say it let me summarize again that i'm not telling you it's risk free or risky i don't know don't listen to me i'm just telling you that you might be looking at the wrong stuff to make your decision wouldn't you rather look at the right stuff i mean if you don't want to get the vaccination you have plenty of argument plenty of argument you don't need the bad arguments so don't use the vares database as your argument because that's a bad argument here's a good argument you want a good argument for not getting vaccinated again this is not me advising it but i will advise you what a good argument looks like a good argument looks like i'm young and healthy and i don't trust the government or anything they say about the vaccinations so therefore none of the data pro or con is useful to me because i don't trust any of it and nobody knows what will happen in the long term is that that's your best argument if as soon as you depart from that into statistics you're just wrong you're just wrong because this the statistics all come from official sources the official sources are all the same direction so if you're using any kind of credible official numbers they all point in the same direction and that's not your argument the argument you can make is subjective don't use data data doesn't work in your favor but there is a strong subjective argument that the people who are recommending it can't be trusted is anything wrong with that argument the people recommending that you put this in your body can't be trusted that's it you don't need more than that they can't be trusted if you need a hundred examples of why you shouldn't trust them i can give them to you but that's all you need is coming from a source i don't trust period hasn't been tested in the long term why would i take your word for it right um so there is so there is a good argument for not getting vaccinated but it's not based on any statistics it's not based on numbers there is no numbers-based argument for not getting vaccinated nor you could argue is there a numbers-based argument for getting vaccinated because it's all unreliable numbers but at least the unreliable numbers are all in the same direction you know the official ones the experts are on the roof yeah all right yeah and if you know if you want to make uh exceptions for this or that that makes sense so um for those of you who are angry that my opinion disagrees with yours it probably doesn't i'm anti-mandate because of freedom and because you have a choice of getting vaccinated and while i do understand the the basic concept of you know the mandate is so we'll all be protected from each other we're dangerous to each other all the time you get that right we are all dangerous to each other all the time if we have sex we're dangerous to each other if we get in the car we buy a gun even though we don't plan to shoot anybody it's a gun so we live in a world in which we're all being dangerous to people all the time as long as that's our standard no mandate now you know if this were polio i'd probably have a different opinion but given the the specific nature of this pandemic i don't see the argument for the i don't see the argument for a mandate now some of you asked me scott are you going to get a third booster and again you should not follow my model right nobody should look at what i'm doing to inform them how to do it that would be the wrong way to approach a medical decision um so anyway take care of yourself don't listen to me but don't use the numbers as your argument if you're anti-vaccination it just doesn't work all the numbers are against you all of them all the numbers are against you doesn't mean the numbers are right right so i want you to hear that clearly i'm not saying the numbers are right the official numbers probably they're wrong like every other official number but they're all in the same direction so just don't use that argument um about the booster yes uh my decision to get a booster is undecided because oh yes and i'll be on the uh viva and barnes uh later today so look for bmv and burns later today um circular argument what's the what's the circular part uh numbers are all made up they might be oh uh so just finishing up on the booster so um i'm going to make the the same process i did to decide on getting the vaccination since i got the vaccination late you know my immunity is a little higher than people who got it earlier so i have some time so i'm going to wait as long as possible to have the most information if i don't hear any information that is you know startlingly negative i'm inclined to get the booster just because there's a consistency thing about it right if there's no new information why wouldn't i use the same decision because there's no new information but am i comfortable with it no does that help you am i comfortable getting a booster nope was i comfortable getting the first shots no you shouldn't be either what how can you be comfortable with it like i said the people who are telling us to do this are all liars they're all undependable but you had to do something right there's a risk of getting vaccinated there's a risk of not you just had to make a decision and you know not getting vaccinated is a decision we all made decisions without the right amount of information everybody agree with that that all of us made the decision without enough information we kind of guessed and then we imagined that we used data after the fact but we didn't it was based on just how you felt basically um all right i gotta go run and do some other things and i'll talk to you tomorrow

[Music]

well

good morning and welcome

to welcome to what welcome you know

the best thing that's ever happened to

you

yeah a lot of people today woke up and

did not come to watch coffee with scott

adams and participate in the

simultaneous sip we pity them

we pity them

because all of you

are going to experience something

special

that's right that's right user

you're going to take it up a notch and

all you need is a copper marker glass

that tanker tells us to iron that

canteen jogger flask a vessel of any

kind fill it with the

liquid you like best i like coffee

and join me now

for the unparalleled pleasure of the

dope being here today the thing that

makes everything better unless my camera

is in the wrong orientation oh damn it

the camera's in the wrong orientation

i'm going to add that to my checklist

but

join me now for the simultaneous sip

this will make everything except your

screen orientation better

wait it's even improving the screen

orientation

didn't see that coming

turns out we have a solution for that it

was only on locals so

if you're on youtube you didn't see the

difference

all right

much better i don't know if that turned

all of your screens upside down for a

minute

well uh

do you all know kanye west

everybody know who kanye west is that's

a trick question

there's nobody named kanye west he's

changed his name to

just y e

which i think he calls yay

it's not ye right

is it because it's kanye so it's yay

right

yeah he's a pretty good name i i like it

when uh

people who are already super famous uh

make us think about their name change

because it keeps us in their memory

so uh i liked it when prince did it just

because it made us continually talk

about him

and i like it when yay is doing it

okay it's just a good technique it's a

very persuasive thing it's an easy way

to stay in the news

and i think everybody called him yay in

person so it just made sense

but the interesting thing is that he

arrived on a flight

i guess people's on the airport

wearing a

halloween kind of mask

which could be described as white face

could be described as white face it was

a caucasian mask

how do you feel about that

well i love the fact that he did it

because he just does anything that

i mean he he's willing to do things that

grab your attention and they're

provocative and yeah it was funny

uh but the weirdest thing is that he's

reportedly meeting with michael cohen

trump's uh

you know fallen from grace lawyer

what's that all about

what

what is kanye talking to michael cohen

about

does anybody know do you even have a

guess

like what what possible business could

the two of them have

oh divorce yeah

but divorce he's not really a divorce

lawyer

yeah i don't know it's weird um but

maybe we'll find that out

there's a story out of india about a

monkey killing a man by hurling a brick

off a second floor of a building

monkey threw that brick killed that man

isis has already claimed responsibility

but cnn is reporting that it was caused

by climate change

because

there's one thing you know about climate

change it will cause monkeys to start

hurling bricks

if you think this is a one-off

well you haven't watched cnn because

anything that's a little bit

unexpected

means climate change so climate changes

are making monkeys crazy

and they're starting to look for blunt

objects to throw out humans

and they've got their first kill

and an idiot

the true part is the monkey part

the fake part is the climate science

part i made that up if somebody's new

here you might actually think that cnn

reported it was because of climate

change

remember

parity and reality have merged now

so i actually had to step back and say

oh no actually cnn is not reporting that

climate change is causing monkeys to

roll bricks

here's news from the simulation

news from the simulation

it's a low budget operation i have to do

my own

stings

but the news from the simulation

spokane police department

is investigating the origin of the

explicit video an x-rated video

that showed up on screen uh on a new

show in spokane

so i think it was the weather person was

doing the news and suddenly uh an

x-rated scene showed up on the screen

uh here's the simulation part

it was a local news station

whose call letters are k r e m

t v

how do you pronounce that

k r

e m

would you pronounce it

creme

maybe

maybe

maybe creme

or

or

is the simulation messing with us again

is it a coincidence

that the one local news station

that had some porn on it

was cream tv

cream tv

i'm not making this up

i'm just telling you the news

yeah

obviously we live in a simulation

there's no other explanation all right

here's another mystery

so you all know there's uh y'all y'all

know

there's a uh supply chain problem and it

has to do with uh trucking shortages

do you know the reason for the trucking

shortage anybody anybody do you know the

reason for the trucking shortage

well before i tell you the reason for

the trucking shortage

let me give you a

rule of thumb

for knowing a lie from the truth

now here's what i learned from a friend

of mine and i didn't believe it the

first time i heard it

but if you if you follow this rule and

just keep it in mind

watch how often it predicts

not a hundred percent

but it's really predictive and it goes

like this

the truth

usually has one good reason to it

right there are exceptions of course

but if something is true

there's usually one good reason and if

there's more than one good reason

they're usually obvious ones that you

can also see

okay

so

when you have more than one good reason

offered

the more reasons that are offered the

less likely the base story is true

you got that

if there's just one or maybe two if

there are obvious reasons given for an

explanation for a thing probably true or

could be true

but if you have seven explanations for a

thing and they're all different

there's something going on

it means either nobody knows what's

going on

or somebody's lying

right now let's look at the trucking

shortage

what's the one reason for it there isn't

there are multiple reasons

there's some some i saw in the comments

that

truckers don't want to get vaccinated

maybe

there's truckers or too many of them are

on meth they can't pass

or people want to be truckers or can't

pass the drug test maybe

there's something about california

requiring only newer trucks be used for

climate and

and environmental reasons so that there

would be a limit of trucks because

they're not enough new ones

there's a issue of this supplies to fix

the trucks themselves so the supply

chain is broken

but included in that broken supply chain

is the parts

to fix the trucks

that broke the supply chain

so that's another explanation given

so the trucks have to be green we don't

have enough green ones

let's see here's some other reasons uh

truck driving schools not enough of them

they're too slow they're kind of

expensive

uh pete judge pointed out the demand

desire

so we're just because of the pandemic

you know

keeping demand low for a while it's just

a little excess demand

how about low wages and bad treatment of

customers low wages for truck drivers

customers treat them poorly

i mentioned drug testing

in the uk they've got a also a supply

chain problem

and they blame a backlog of truck driver

license requests i guess there are 50

000

people who have applied to be truck

drivers in the uk but they can't get

through

now

what are the odds

given all these different reasons

what are the odds that the uk would be

having a problem at the same time we

would

for a different reason

just think about it what are the odds

there would be a massive supply chain

problem in the united states

with all these different reasons given

and the uk

just coincidentally would also have a

supply chain problem

for a completely different reason

that the democracy can't process them

what's going on

what's going on now somebody says it's

really the same reasons in the uk or

similar

could be

wouldn't rule that out

here's my

here's my take on it i think there's

something we're going to find out about

this story that we don't know

there's something we're going to find

out

that we don't yet know

it could be

that it's just this weird perfect storm

that all these things happened at the

same time and and really the pandemic

was sort of behind most of them

right not all of them but the pandemic

you know exacerbated a thing that was

already maybe on the edge

i would that's believable

could be

but it's happening in the uk same time

they're getting the same perfect storm

and what about other places i don't know

so here's my take on this i think

there's some big ugly secret coming

a big ugly secret coming

because let's just go through the the

reasons given and let me tell you how

compelling or not they are

i believe that in the context of an

emergency it wouldn't be hard to train

new people quickly

how long does it take to learn to drive

a truck

two weeks

two weeks

couldn't you get there in two weeks

i suppose they loosened maybe i don't

know the marijuana condition of the drug

testing i don't know if that's already

happened but suppose they did that just

because it's an emergency

they say all right in the short run

we're gonna lower our standards how

about using trucks that are not as green

temporarily

and then going back to the green trucks

when you can

don't all of these problems look

solvable to you

don't they

there are a whole bunch of problems but

they all fall in that category of

they look really solvable

but they don't look like they're getting

solved

something's wrong

right

imagine trump in charge

and he realizes that there's a supply

chain problem you don't think he can fix

that

because i think he could

because whatever is causing this is

fear bureaucracy or red tape

right it's like fear bureaucracy red

tape inertia

politics maybe

something like that

those are all trump's sweet spots

that's exactly what you want to trump

for

remember i don't say trump is the best

at all things presidential

i think he was not so good at her health

care you know although he did some good

things there too

but there are some things he's just sort

of perfect for the border is one

negotiating with china hard that's

another

north korea he was perfect for it

but

and this this truck shortage i think

he'd be perfect for this because he has

exactly the qualities you need but biden

has none of them

biden has none of them

so that's why we're here

i saw an interesting concept by twitter

user phil reed

he was making an analogy to my talent

stack idea where you add talents

together that makes sense to make

yourself more valuable

and he said there's a similar thing with

the apple ecosystem

meaning that if you start getting into

apple products

because they work together you know the

the fact that i could go from my phone

to my

ipad to my computer and i'm still in the

same place etc

um and a number of other things that

make the product work together he makes

the point that you don't have to be the

best at any of those things

if you've built it if you built an

ecosystem

where they all work together

and i thought that was somebody says

synergy yeah i mean

you could say it's just synergy

but

i think it gives a little more meat on

the idea

to compare it to the talon stack on idea

and say it's a an ecosystem stack if you

will everything from your watch to your

computer all have something in common

and they work together as i just thought

it was an interesting take on that

big news about facebook they're changing

their name

do you know why facebook is changing

their name

anybody anybody why are they changing

their name

well in my opinion

well first of all they may have some

baggage they want to get rid of and i

also think facebook doesn't sound like a

current name does it

having the word book

in a tech company name

it's really not a

forward-looking name is it

it was fine for a while

um but the biggest reason they're

changing the name is that their business

is going to change

in a big way and i would argue that this

change in facebook will be one of the

biggest changes in human evolution

one of the biggest changes in human

evolution

like real big like as big as opposing

thumbs

like that big

here's why

um apparently they're going to go uh

balls to the wall into the metaverse

or the virtual worlds which are created

by

3d you know graphic stuff and ar

artificial reality and virtual reality

so facebook is creating an entire new

reality

multiple realities

and each of these realities will have a

function

so one of the fake realities might be a

conference room

where you put on your goggles and you go

to that conference room and you're

you're in that room

others might be vacations

you might be able to take a group

vacation somewhere

just with your goggles on

you might be able to fly somewhere

just with your goggles on

and i would argue

you don't see how big this is

i don't think any of you can see how big

this is

the only people who can see it are the

people who have tried the technology

if you've tried it

you know how big this is

because right now it's it's sort of in

its infancy in a way maybe you know

maybe it's sophomore year or something

so it's not ready for prime time

i would say

but

oh that's dangerous it's not ready for

prime time

but it's going to get there really

quickly and fairly obviously

and

i this is huge let me tell you what i

know i did get a virtual reality

system a few years ago just to check it

out and just a few years is probably

completely different now but when when

you have the virtual reality

headset on

your

your experience is so rich

it can be better than real life

it's a problem

[Laughter]

the virtual reality

can be better than real life and maybe a

lot

imagine if you will that you're

unattractive

i know

hard for us to imagine because the

people who watch me are unusually sexy

but imagine you're somebody else

and you're not the sexy beast that i

know you are

how much are you going to like living in

the real world where people treat you

like elephant man

versus living in the virtual world where

you look like your avatar

and people interact with you as the

avatar

which one are you going to want to spend

more time in

yeah disabled people now well actually

let me take that back

i think you trap with that comment you

trapped me into

uh saying something uh ill-liberal is

that the right word

if we assume that disabled people and

let's say differently abled disabled by

itself is not as woke as it should be

we'll say differently abled people

if you make the assumption that they

need a virtual reality you kind of

that's kind of not cool you know what i

mean

because just that being differently able

doesn't mean you have to leave reality

or something so i guess i was a little

offended

by your suggestion even though i totally

understand it so your suggestion is

completely fair

but i don't know if did anybody else

feel that

if if you talk about uh

differently abled people and i agree

with that that wording by the way

uh you can certainly see that there

would be people in that category who

would like the virtual worlds better so

that the comment is perfectly fair

but i don't know just

just imagining that there's a group that

needs to get out of reality is

i guess i said the same thing with

unattractive people

if you are blind interesting if you're

blind you're not going to have any

access to this

that's a really interesting point

yeah i wonder if there's a way to get a

virtual site

i'll bet there is

i'll bet you could get virtual sight

someday

something you know directly

yeah neuralink kind of thing

directly linking to your brain

maybe

someday anyway i don't think you realize

how gigantic that is it's really

gigantic there's some fake news about

southwest airlines

fake in the sense that it's being

reported in an incomplete way so

hannity was tweeting this and what

hannity said was breaking

southwest airlines drops plan to place

unvaxed workers on unpaid leave

now if you hear that they stopped their

plan to put unvaxed workers on unpaid

leave

you would say to yourself hey

they're going to put people who are

unvaccinated on

unpaid leave or they were before is that

true

it's true-ish but it's missing too much

context

right it's true-ish

the context is missing is that the only

people involved were the people who had

applied for

exceptions

religious or otherwise

and had not gotten an answer yet

so to me all they're doing is delaying

the mandate until they can work through

the number of people asking for

exceptions so to me it looks like

nothing

to me it just looks like nothing like

nothing changed except they just delayed

it until they feel they can do it right

so i feel like this was fake news to

imagine that they reversed the policy

i think all they did was make a

practical decision that they couldn't do

everything as quickly as they wanted i

think that's all

we'll see we want more news might come

out of that

i would like to call out

one of my

internet friends for cognitive

dissonance

now this is somebody i

interact with a lot might even be

watching so if you're watching i'm going

to be talking about you in a moment

so this is nothing personal about the

person okay

so i'm going to say something that you

might think is personal

it's not because it's somebody i like

but this person i believe is is

experiencing cognitive dissonance

and when you experience cognitive

dissonance

you're the only one who doesn't know

that's the nature of it right so if i

experience it i will swear i'm not

you're the only people who know

nobody else is going to know all right

so i'm talking about justin hart all

right justin i see you're guessing so

stop guessing

his name is justin hart great guy

uh interacts a lot uh on twitter

have had lots of interactions with him

but he's more on the let's say i don't

want to characterize other people too

much but i say he's on the skeptical

side

of uh the pandemic conversation it's on

the skeptical side

and here's something he said today

talking about the southwest airlines

story so he said in a tweet uh quote

they caved they'll cave more when the

next deadline comes again

since now that part i'm not arguing with

that that whether they caved or whether

the cave again so no argument about that

but the next part

tell me if i'm experiencing cognitive

dissonance because you're the only ones

who know right i can't tell

i think

justin is experiencing it so here's the

next sentence you ju you be the judge

okay

he says since 40 40 to 60 of all

infections are coming from fully

vaccinated people

now first of all i don't know if that's

true

but let's let's accept as true that

there are a lot of vaccinated people

getting

uh getting infected so that part's true

right i don't know if it's 40 to 60.

that's

i'm not sure that's right but let's just

say there's a lot of them

right

somebody says it's absolutely true

and i'm seeing other people saying it's

not true

so i want everybody to know that some

people say it's true and some people say

it's not true i don't know i don't but

it doesn't matter to my point

we all agree that there are a lot of

vaccinated people getting infected right

we're all on that page

a lot of vaccinated people are getting

infected all right

so here's what he says because the 40 to

60 percent of all infections are coming

from fully vaccinated people

he concludes that the mandates seem

superfluous

do you think the fact that vaccinated

people also

get infections and quite frequently does

the fact that they're vaccinating make

the mandate seem superfluous now hold on

hold on

i didn't say is the mandate a good idea

in your opinion

that's not the question

so you're not judging whether mandates

are good or bad all right nobody's

judging mandates i know your opinion on

mandates i don't like them

most of you don't like them

so we're not talking about whether

mandates are good or bad that's not the

topic

the topic is

whether the fact that many vaccinated

people get infections

does that make a mandate

senseless

is that fact

important to the decision

i see yeses i see lots of yeses

that that's important to the decision

i see one now but mostly yeses

so most people are agreeing with justin

that a mandate is superfluous

now you know that superfluous means

completely unnecessary right

everybody got that

that the mandate

would be

have no effect basically

have no

effect

if uh so many vaccinated people are

getting infected how many people think

that's a good

conclusion

there's somebody here who still thinks i

like mandates

how could you be so misinformed i've

only said it every single time i've been

on live stream

i think every single time i set up i

oppose mandates

because enough people are

vaccinated all right here's what i had

problem i have with that

the

the reason that these airlines want

people to get vaccinated has nothing to

do with

how many of them got infected

it's just not part of the decision

so it seems like cognitive

dissonance to imagine it even matters

because here's the calculation

that if you are vaccinated you're

unlikely to die

and you're far less likely to spread it

now those two things are agreed by

science

right i can't i mean i haven't tested it

myself

but science is very clear

assuming they're right

very clear

that it takes your risk of death down to

trivial

and it uh your risk of spreading it

is much less

i see james say wrong

so there are people who will be on yeah

false i'm saying ochango says

so here's here's my challenge to you

i'm saying that my audience is split on

this

my understanding

is that it's really really clear like

super clear

way way clear like multiples clear

like the clearest thing you could ever

know

the vaccinations reduce your risk

and risk and the amount that you spread

some somebody's saying marginal i'm

saying that's completely wrong

that it's not marginal it's more like

seven to one eleven one two hundred to

one

i think i read is like 200 times more

likely you'll spread it if you're not

vaccinated

200 times

i don't know if that's right but say

it's 11 times

or 10 times whatever it is it's not

close right

so the rat race says lol shark

the shark

by telling you something you didn't know

because most of you are actually

confused by the fact that lots of people

get infected while vaccinated and

therefore the vaccinations don't have a

purpose

that is so wrong according to science

now if science is wrong well

i guess

we all got fooled

but you do know that they're

unanimous right

it is unanimous

let me say it again

i'm pretty sure that even the doctors

who are the rogue doctors

who are telling you it's a bad idea to

get vaccinated and you watch a lot of

them right how many of you have watched

doctors say hey i'm not so sure about

these vaccinations you know the rogue

doctors

a lot of them say that but as far as i

know

i think even the rogues agree

that you're far less likely to die

from covin as opposed to the vaccine

itself

and that your risk of spreading it is

way way less

um i think those are things that even

the critics agree with by the way

so here's my challenge to you i say that

even

the experts who are

anti-vaxx

would agree with the statement that the

vaccine

reduces your risk of covid and your risk

of spreading it vastly

even the critics so that's my challenge

to you

find out any critic

somebody says israel that's been

debunked

i know you've read news stories that say

the opposite but they've all been

debunked

go check it yourself

yeah you do the research you won't find

any experts who don't who disagree with

me

so since i know that

justin

who i was talking about here since i

know him to be someone who's following

this topic closely

and also you know smart guy

i feel as if his previous skepticism

is maybe triggering him

into cognitive dissonance

now

as i've argued before

you need a trigger there has to be

something that makes your worldview not

make sense

that triggers the cognitive dissonance

i would argue i don't have that trigger

because as far as i know i haven't

predicted anything that was wrong

or at least relative to this specific

topic obviously i've predicted things

that were wrong

oh somebody says i got vaccinated

well that's a good

would that be a trigger

would it be a trigger

to think that i was right

because here

so that was a good that's a good comment

did you catch that

somebody said that i'm vaccinated and

that could be my trigger

because i made a decision therefore i

have to be consistent with my decision

but here's my defense of that

my defense is that i don't know that i

made the right decision

hear that clearly

i took a

what i thought was a calculated risk

that had a risk of going wrong in either

direction

so i'm open to the fact that i made the

wrong decision or that new information

would

make it look like a bad or worse

decision that it was

i'm completely open to that there's

nothing that would change my

i know view of myself

if i turn down to be completely wrong on

the

vaccination stuff because to me that

would be interesting

i would admit it immediately

i wouldn't be embarrassed

because i just don't feel embarrassment

for stuff like that

and i've said from the beginning of the

pandemic a lot of people are going to be

really wrong

don't hold it against them we're all

doing the best we can you know we're

guessing we're doing the best we can

and so i put myself in the same category

that i put others in which is yeah we're

going to get some stuff wrong

and people might die

literally i could be killing people

literally

because if i've said something that

persuaded somebody to make a choice they

went to maine and it turned out to be

the wrong choice i could be killing

people right now and that's not even a

little bit hyperbolic

so i'll tell you what protects me a

little bit

from cognitive dissonance and again

how would i know

but

i'm open to being wrong and embrace it

and i don't have to protect against it

so i don't have an ego wall that says oh

if i'm wrong this is going to be bad for

me i don't

if i'm wrong i'm just i'm just wrong

i'll talk about something else

i'm pretty sure i can live with that

vax does not reduce the spread this is

what right lane bandit says in all caps

vax does not reduce the spread it

reduces death get educated

okay let me say this as clearly as

possible all the experts disagree with

you

there's nothing you could google that

would that would agree with you

nothing

nothing

there's no expert that has your opinion

even the people who agree with you that

you shouldn't get vaccinated don't have

that opinion

i'm seeing bud say bandit is right

all right so here's your challenge

find me a uh

some scientists who

who are not in some sketchy blog site

you know some some credible looking

thing

that suggests that all the experts are

wrong and and and see if he can change

my mind

all right change my mind

uh

doctor no dr bhattachary does not say

that nope

nope

all the ones you think say that are

saying something different i think that

might be the confusion because there are

people who are anti-vaxx

so i'm not i'm not saying there are no

anti-vaxx

people i'm saying that the reason

they're anti-facts is that they think

there's more risk from the vaccination

than the covet

and i'm not even arguing that point

because i wouldn't know one way or the

other

there are other reasons for anti-facts

right there are other reasons and that

they're not the ones i'm talking about

right now

yeah we're not talking about natural

immunity anything all right so

i feel that most of you are being

triggered into cognitive dissonance and

this is what's going to happen

here's how you can tell

those of you have been triggered into

cognitive dissonance

if in fact that's what's happening it

looks like it it looks like really clear

let me say as clearly as possible

i really know how to spot cognitive

dissonance

it's been my hobby for decades

i really really am good at spotting it i

think in other people

again nobody can spot it in themselves

but i would say that i'm as close as you

can get to an expert as spotting it in

the wild

and this is definitely it

if i'm wrong about this i'm wrong about

everything

this is cognitive dissonance now here's

how you can tell

most of you will misinterpret what i'm

saying

you're going to interpret it as being

pro-vaccination

nope

nope i did not say that

i never encourage you to get vaccinated

hear it clearly but many of you will

think that's exactly what you heard

some of you will think

that i said the vaccinations

stop all spread

nope nope never said that said the

opposite

so watch how the people who think

they're disagreeing with me are going to

be disagreeing with

an illusion of what i said

and they're going to be positive they're

right

because they're accurately disagreeing

with an illusion

but they're not disagreeing with me

and they're the ones in all caps

all the people in all caps are in

cognitive dissonance i guarantee that

i can promise you that the all caps

people

are having an experience that their

world is blowing up right now

all right

i think that's enough on that topic way

too much

so uh beyonce is in a commercial for uh

tiffany

and

apparently they turned her white

now i don't know what the real story is

but in the video her skin is lightened

to the point where

it would be hard to detect if she has

any african-american

yo influence

and

it looks like it's lightened to me

i mean i don't know if it's makeup or

the camera work but she's sitting next

to jay-z

who looks exactly like jay-z

like he doesn't look like he's been

lightened

well she sure did

and i think tiffany's going to have some

explaining to do on that

um

rasmussen asked how confident are you

that joe biden is physically and

mentally up to the job of president what

do you think people said

here's what they said

uh

41 percent are either very confident or

somewhat confident that joe biden is up

to it physically and mentally 41 that's

pretty high isn't it

yeah how many of them were very

confident

very confident not somewhat confident

but very confident

and so it's within the 41

the very confidence were 27

27

are very confident

very confident that joe biden's 100

yeah you're i'm laughing because the

regular viewers know i always point out

that every pole

seems to have 25 percent of morons

you'd have to be a to

think that joe biden is is right on the

ball

now i'm okay with the people who say you

know they're somewhat confident

some more confident i think that

you know that's enough of a hedge i'll

give you that you know that that just

sounds like somebody prefers

their person in in the office

uh but 58 were uh not confident

in joe biden or one way or the other

strongly or or weakly not confident and

two percent were unsure

two percent were unsure

can't we add them to the not so sure

there that he's

if you're unsure

shouldn't you have answered that you're

not confident

what does unsure mean

so apparently we found the two percent

who are the dumbest

the dumbest people in in the

world if you're unsure

you're unsure

apparently they don't know what

confidence means are you confident no

i'm unsure okay so you're not confident

no

i didn't say that i just said i'm unsure

oh well

rasmussen also asked is biden doing the

job of president or are others making

the decision for him

how do you think this went

53 percent say others are making the

decision

you realize that must include at least

a number of independents and or

democrats to get to 53

38 say he is doing the job

okay

so ron desantis

is opening up some ports in florida

to help ease the backlog in california

so it turns out that all these problems

that they have in california

i guess they don't have them in florida

so does that

give you any pause

do you think that truck drivers in

florida are more pro vaccination

do they do fewer

fewer hits of meth

in florida

can they can they get better uh truck

parts in florida

are there more trucks

i don't know none of this is quite

fitting is it now i'm not so sure that

whatever ron desantis is going to do in

florida will make that much difference

so it might be a slight

you know uptick so he might be making

more political hay out of it than is

really warranted but let me say about

this about that

ron desantis surfs

the headlines

and the zeitgeist

better than i've ever seen

apparently he has a political strategy

that i consider

brilliant

this is just one of the best things i've

ever seen and you don't really get a

sense of it until you see

how consistent he is over time

which is that there's some national

story of interest

and that he finds the populist way to

approach it

or the helpful way or the smart way or

the scientific way or the

you know the better strategy you know

protecting the old people first

whatever

so he's just the master of inserting

himself into the story that's already

there

he can insert himself into any story

and make himself look like the only

smart person in the room

over and over again

this is brilliant

political

now again i don't know if any of the

things he's doing make any difference at

all

i really don't i don't even have much of

an opinion on the specifics of his

policies

i'm just saying i've never seen anybody

do politics better than this

this is the best politics i've ever seen

this is better than trump

sorry

because trump causes trouble

to get attention and it's very

successful made him president right

but if trump didn't exist

desantis would walk into the nomination

he would just walk into the nomination

don't you think

like who would it be if it's not

desantis

it's just a great strategy

all right neil cavuto um you know him

from fox news has covet

now

can somebody give me a fact check

i know that neil cavuto has quite

publicly struggled with his weight for a

long time but in current pictures he

looks like he lost a bunch of weight

did he six yes and you're saying he he

also has uh

multiple sclerosis he's doubled with

that for years i guess

but it looked like he

he lost a bunch of weight can you

confirm that

he's

oh i've really come around on desantis

well he's still not exciting but damn

he's he's good at this stuff

um

yeah so i'm seeing at least one

confirmation there but good for him so

the first part is if

if he lost a bunch of weight during the

pandemic and he did it for all the right

reasons

good for him

he may have he may have saved his own

life now he was vaccinated too so he'll

probably be fine

but

i just like to call out anybody who did

the right thing during the pandemic

and the right thing was to get fit

if you didn't do that

you played the pandemic really wrong

if you didn't add any skills while you

had you know a weird opening to do it

you played it wrong

it looks like he might have played it

right if he lost weight

tentatively that's that's my guess

and

he's

the other thing that makes him kind of

important to the story is that he is a

walking comorbidity or people

you know may think of it that way

because he's had public health problems

somebody said he's a cancer recovery too

i think that's true

um

so if he does well because he's

vaccinated that's gonna be a story and i

think that would be

influential

all right

uh cnn has good context for a change

you're going to hate this

this is where i'm going to lose most of

you

first of all cnn has some good context

on the story i know you don't like that

but when do you hear it you're not going

to like this at all

um and you're also going to say that all

the numbers in the story are wrong all

right you ready

um how many people let me do a test with

you how many people are confirmed

now confirmed is the the operative word

here how many are confirmed

to have died in the united states from

the vaccination itself let's call it the

covenant shot not a vaccination

how many people in the united states

have died in the entire pandemic

so far from the

the shot go

zero is wrong

three

somebody says three

really

fifteen thousand i'm saying thousands

now i'm talking confirmed remember so

those of you are guessing thousands you

know those are not thousands that are

confirmed

so just confirmed

i'm saying 30 17 2000 less than 10 less

than 100

uh 18 000 25 000

666

52 maybe 10.

here's the number that

cnn reports

uh

three

three

does that match your your

assumption

do you believe that

three people

are confirmed doesn't mean only three

just confirmed

do you believe that

that's what cnn's reporting how about

that vares database

because you know there's all kinds of

stuff in there right that's where people

report the bad reactions to

uh vaccinations

how many

here's the second question

um

how many people have been how many

deaths are reported to vares remember

there are three that are confirmed

but how many have been reported to vares

go

the verse says how many people died from

the covet shot

go

how many i see thousands thousands

anybody youtube

forty-two

thousand fourteen thousand

three point five trillion good guess

we're wrong

three

uh the answer is 8 600.

so 8600 deaths have been reported to the

the vares database

three have been confirmed

three

now is the problem

that we're really really slow at

confirming things

or is a problem that

they're not real

i don't know suppose they're real

suppose every death reported to varys

was real how bad would that be

yeah if every death reported to varys

was real and that seems deeply unlikely

if they were all real would that tell

you that and that's all you knew would

that tell you to get the shot or not

here's your next question if 8 600

people died and if that were real and we

all know that's not real but if it were

real

would that tell you not to get the shot

somebody says yes

i see some no's i see some yeses yeses

all right well here's how you could have

seen that in

uh context

390 million doses have been administered

and that amounts to .0021

or about two deaths for every hundred

thousand doses

which is

way less

than how many people die of covet

remember the all caps people are always

in cognitive dissonance so if you if

you're going to type in all caps just

know i'm calling you out

all right

so this is cnn's reporting by the way

this is not me saying any of this so

according to

cnn if you looked at all the doses given

there are

only two deaths for every hundred

thousand but how many kova deaths are

there for every hundred thousand

so this is cnn two deaths

from every hundred thousand doses even

if the vares database is correct that's

how it would only be two for every

hundred thousand how many does covet

kill out of a hundred thousand

if the if it's true that the vaccination

is two how many does cove would kill

220

right

um that's a hundred times worse

two

versus over two hundred

so if these numbers were right even if

the vares database was accurate and you

know it isn't it's way way high

well it could be low i suppose but you

know it's not accurate

um

according to these numbers it would be a

hundred times smarter to get the

vaccination if this was the only

criteria and it's not right

i i get it there are other criteria

but if this were the only criteria the

vares database risk versus the coveted

risk itself it wouldn't even be close

it would be a hundred to one

cassandra says scott you're in deep

dissonance

and i wouldn't know

so if you believe that the problem is my

end

let me let me say as clearly as possible

i wouldn't know that's what cognitive

dissonance does but if the problem was

on your end

you wouldn't know

can we agree on that

if the problems are your end you don't

know if the problem is on my end i don't

know that's what it is that's the

definition of cognitive dissonance

all right so i'm not suggesting that you

should get vaccinated can i can i say

that

i am not suggesting that you get

vaccinated nor am i suggesting that you

don't

do you know why

why the hell would you take my advice to

get vaccinated

can you think of anything dumber than

that

well i mean seriously what would be

dumber than taking my advice on your

medical situation

right i mean i'll tell you to drink

coffee and exercise

you know i feel safe about that but

don't take my advice and don't let me

persuade you in any way and also don't

believe anything the cnn reports i'm

reading cnn's report

let me give you an example of how bad

this cnn data is you ready and i know if

if andres is watching this he's or he's

already screaming at his screen

i read this and you you probably missed

it

but he said it would be 390 million

doses administered

they're actually calculating the deaths

on doses

versus people

what

so they're acting as though

your risk

per dose is the one that you're you're

looking at not your risk of being

vaccinated

versus not being vaccinated

now

it's not crazy to do that because your

death probably does follow a specific

dose

but it's not going to follow the second

one is it

how many people died when they got the

second dose

zero

maybe

do you think that people

lived through the first dose

and then the and then the second or the

third one took them out

i don't think so

i don't think so so this this is off by

at least 100 percent

right so cnn's numbers are off by at

least a hundred percent

and this still makes the case

let me say it again

cnn numbers are probably off by a

hundred percent

and it still makes the case that is way

smarter to get

vaccinated the not not even close

even if their numbers are off by 100

even if the vares is off by

a thousand percent

it's still according to their numbers

way smarter to get vaccinated that's not

me saying i'm talking about what other

people are saying right

only in the short term somebody says yes

so if you were looking at your full risk

of

getting the shots versus not you would

have to look at the long term that's

still unknown

so as clearly as i can say it let me

summarize again that i'm not telling you

it's risk free or risky i don't know

don't listen to me i'm just telling you

that you might be looking at the wrong

stuff to make your decision

wouldn't you rather look at the right

stuff

i mean if you don't want to get the

vaccination you have plenty of argument

plenty of argument

you don't need the bad arguments so

don't use the vares database as your

argument because that's a bad argument

here's a good argument you want a good

argument for not getting vaccinated

again this is not me advising it

but i will advise you what a good

argument looks like

a good argument looks like i'm young and

healthy

and i don't trust the government or

anything they say about the vaccinations

so therefore none of the data pro or con

is useful to me because i don't trust

any of it

and nobody knows what will happen in the

long term

is that that's your best argument

if as soon as you depart from that into

statistics you're just wrong

you're just wrong because this the

statistics all come from official

sources

the official sources are all the same

direction

so if you're using any kind of credible

official numbers they all point in the

same direction and that's not your

argument

the argument you can make is subjective

don't use data data doesn't work in your

favor but there is a strong subjective

argument that the people who are

recommending it can't be trusted

is anything wrong with that argument the

people recommending that you put this in

your body

can't be trusted

that's it

you don't need more than that

they can't be trusted if you need a

hundred examples of why you shouldn't

trust them i can give them to you

but

that's all you need

is coming from a source i don't trust

period

hasn't been tested in the long term

why would i take your word for it

right

um

so there is so

there is a good argument for not getting

vaccinated but it's not based on any

statistics it's not based on numbers

there is no numbers-based argument for

not getting vaccinated

nor you could argue is there a

numbers-based argument for getting

vaccinated

because it's all unreliable numbers

but at least the unreliable numbers are

all in the same direction

you know the official ones

the experts are on the roof

yeah

all right

yeah and if you know if you want to make

uh exceptions for this or that that

makes sense

so

um

for those of you who are angry that my

opinion disagrees with yours it probably

doesn't

i'm anti-mandate

because of freedom and because you have

a choice of getting vaccinated

and while i do understand the the basic

concept of

you know

the mandate is so we'll all be protected

from each other

we're dangerous to each other all the

time

you get that right

we are all dangerous to each other all

the time

if we have sex we're dangerous to each

other if we get in the car we buy a gun

even though we don't plan to shoot

anybody it's a gun

so we live in a world in which we're all

being dangerous to people all the time

as long as that's our standard

no mandate

now you know if this were polio i'd

probably have a different opinion

but

given the the specific nature of this

pandemic

i don't see the argument for the i don't

see the argument for a mandate

now

some of you asked me scott are you going

to get a third

booster

and again you should not follow my model

right nobody should look at what i'm

doing to inform them how to do it that

would be the wrong way to approach a

medical decision

um

so anyway

take care of yourself don't listen to me

but don't use the numbers as your

argument if you're anti-vaccination it

just doesn't work all the numbers are

against you

all of them

all the numbers are against you

doesn't mean the numbers are right

right so i want you to hear that clearly

i'm not saying the numbers are right the

official numbers probably they're wrong

like every other official number but

they're all in the same direction so

just don't use that argument

um about the booster yes

uh my decision to get a booster is

undecided because oh yes and i'll be on

the uh viva

and barnes uh later

today

so look for bmv and burns later today um

circular argument what's the what's the

circular part

uh numbers are all made up they might be

oh uh so just finishing up on the

booster so um i'm going to make the the

same process i did to decide on getting

the vaccination since i got the

vaccination late

you know my immunity is a little higher

than people who got it earlier so i have

some time so i'm going to wait as long

as possible

to have the most information

if i don't hear any information that is

you know

startlingly negative

i'm inclined to get the booster

just because there's a consistency thing

about it right if there's no new

information why wouldn't i use the same

decision because there's no new

information but

am i comfortable with it

no

does that help you

am i comfortable getting a booster nope

was i comfortable getting the first

shots no

you shouldn't be either

what how can you be comfortable with it

like i said the people who are telling

us to do this are all liars they're all

undependable but you had to do something

right there's a risk of getting

vaccinated there's a risk of not you

just had to make a decision

and

you know

not getting vaccinated is a decision

we all made decisions without the right

amount of information

everybody agree with that

that all of us made the decision without

enough information

we kind of guessed

and then we imagined that we used data

after the fact but we didn't it was

based on

just how you felt basically

um all right i gotta go run and do some

other things and i'll talk to you

tomorrow