Episode 281 Scott Adams - Kanye, Jon Stewart, Trump’s Latest Ad and the Coming Insanity

but the pom pom pom pom pom pom pom hey everybody come on in here you know what time it is yes I was flying yesterday and I did not get to do my periscope I missed it I hope you missed me a little bit so is it time for the simultaneous imp I believe it is I believe it is do you have your cup your mug your vessel your glass your Stein your container does it have the liquid of your choice I like coffee join me for the simultaneous end yes my voice is all better those of you who heard me losing my voice the other day it's because I I don't you know it's weird but most of the talking I do in any 24-hour day is right here on periscope so you're used to seeing me talking but 90% of my day is just sitting in front of my computer thinking hanging out with Christina we don't do a lot of talking all right as you know I've been on my book tour for my book when basically now out in paperback if you don't like to read it in English you could read it in whatever this is or Korean or German or whatever this is yes you have many choices I think that was either Chinese or Japanese I'm not sure but when Bigley is doing great with some paperback now so those of you have been waiting for the lower price it's here and you know what time of year it is it's time for your 2019 calendar all right if you don't have your Dilbert calendar it's time to get it enough about that let's talk about the important news of the day you know the really big stuff such as Kanye West I missed a day so a little behind on the news but most of you know that Kanye is pulling back from politics because he says he did not he did not I hope to design the blex it t-shirt and hat and logo so he is because there was a I guess a suggestion that he was the designer he wanted to pull back because he felt used now my take on this is that it's very it would be very unlikely if Candace or anybody else intentionally said hey let's just claim that Kanye designed this and it's his so I don't think anybody did that it just sounds like a miscommunication so the the actual event is less important than the bigger picture were any of you surprised that Kanye pivoted away from Republicans to think about what he said he wants to do he wants to run for president 2024 if Kanye really wanted to run for president in 2020 for how long should he keep being more friendly with Republicans than Democrats well not too long he'd be better sort of pivot over to the the Democrats because that's the only party he could get elected in so as popular as Kanye is with Republicans he's popular because of really his style his you know the fact that he's willing to embrace you know president Trump so he's popular for reasons that don't have anything to do with policy on a policy level it feels to me he's going to be more likely leaning Democrat so there's no way he would run as a Republican but what is the very strongest package you could create going into a presidential election well you saw President Trump do it he used to be a Democrat used to be a Democrat now he's a Republican you saw Mike Bloomberg do a'right used to be a Republican and then he became a Democrat to my mind the strongest the strongest positioning the strongest setting the table for becoming president is that you used to be on the other side or at the very least you used to be really friendly with the other side because what do people what is the thing that people care about most of them they're voting for president are you on my side can you understand my side have you ever had an appreciation from my side it's one thing that you don't agree with me you know it's it's routine that somebody doesn't agree with you somebody says Reagan did Reagan also switch was Reagan a Democrat he was right he also switched because what that does is that allows the other team to say well I don't love everything about your policies but I still like you and if I still like you maybe more than I like the one running from my own party yeah this time I'm gonna go over and vote the other side so somebody says so he was pacing us in a sense yes in a sense he was pacing the Republicans because he was agreeing with them in their support of for president Trump as a person and you know and not damning him as a crazy racist and stuff like that and he was also so just to be clear I don't I don't want to I want to make sure that I'm not putting any opinions into Kanye his opinions are just for him to express so if I've said that accidentally I think I got close to saying that you know we'll pull that back a little bit we don't know what he's thinking we can only observe what's happening okay so what's happening is he's doing exactly what you would do if you were really smart and planning to run for president in 2024 so what you've seen this week was consistent with being brilliant if you plan to run for president in 2024 now here's the here's the other element it would also be consistent with not wanting to run for president in 2024 because in either case he wants to demonstrate his independence of thought so he can be Pro President Trump as a person and as a you know wanting to him to look good as a leader because he represents the country so that's essentially what Kanye said but he can also you know he's a free thinker and he doesn't have to stay in any camp longer than he wants to so I like that about I would say that my my opinion of Kanye went up a little bit because it is the time to pivot he needs to live in the community that is primarily you know anti-trump so for practical reasons for professional reasons for personal reasons and even if someday he runs for president political reasons it was important for him to show some independence which he just demonstrated in a graphic way now the actual source of the dispute if you could call it that I'm not sure dispute is really the right word but that I think there was a miscommunication about the logo probably is not the important part of the story probably not all right let's talk about the campaign ad the president Trump is running that CNN is labeled on their top left of their page so as I've taught you the top left of a news page is the news that the news organization has judged is the most important news all right so CNN's most important news just a few days before the midterm is Trump campaign releases racist ad now here's the thing that's of opinion the it's purely an opinion that it's a racist ad and they're actually reporting it like it's news and then they don't show the ad so it's the most important but the most important news is that the ad is racist and they don't show it at least yeah I didn't see it right below that what is the second most important thing on the CNN news you're gonna love this the second most important thing so it's the top left of the page the second one down it's a Don Lemon says this is Trump's ad and here are the facts so in other words Don Lemon who just came out as a racist he literally just came out on TV publicly as a racist who's got a problem with white men that really happened I'm it sounds like I'm exaggerating but please you know if he if you think that sounded like even a little bit of an exaggeration just Google Don Lemon white man you know you'll see the video in which he says that the real problem in this country yeah you should really hear it in his own words because I don't want to accidentally mischaracterize it but his essence is he has a problem with white men as the problem in this country now I'm not gonna fact-check that I'm just saying that he said that and by the standards of this country that would be racist as I understand what the word means you know with someone who's biased against a particular race or gender in this case - because he made made it male so he's talking against Trump's ad the CNN has labeled as racist the ad itself if you haven't seen it I'm not going to play it but the ad itself is shows a cop killer who I guess is a must have come from south of the border and he's the cop killers in court being I guess he just got convicted for killing two cops and he's laughing and saying that he wished he'd killed more and it's translated from Spanish so you can tell that he's you know wasn't born in this country now it's just one guy and then it shows yeah other criminal types in the the caravan etc now is it racist to show one guy who accurately did come across the border and then killed two cops is it racist can facts ever be racist I guess that's the question I would ask you can facts ever be racist nice I could I guess they couldn't be depending on how you organize them right if you organize them so you left out on other facts and it created a misleading narrative well I didn't see anywhere in the ad this suggested that everyone in the caravan was a cop-killer that wasn't there in fact I would think any reasonable adult looking at that ad would say oh there are some bad people in this group and we don't know how many I don't know how you could come to any other conclusion except that some of them coming across the border whether it's in the caravan or just the general immigration that some number of them are committing bad crimes is that racist i I I get I get how they take it now they're comparing it of course to the Willie Horton ad back in the George Bush era and I don't remember exactly the Willie Horton had itself but the the the sense of it was that Willie Horton was an african-american man who had committed some kind of crime he got out I think I'm some kind of early release and then he killed somebody I think that's the basic idea there and I don't remember the ad itself but I guess I had more racial you know it was trying a little bit harder to make a racial case but I'm not sure that that applies so much when you're not talking about you're not talking about domestic actors and you're not talking about necessarily one country you know you're talking about a whole region you're talking about crime that's coming in nobody doubts crime is coming in they just you know they disagree about how much of it or how much it matters but it's it's interesting that CNN reports as News their opinion have you have you seen anything like that before who who reports who reports as news something that's clearly of opinion even if the opinion is right I it doesn't even matter whether the pendant is true or false I'm saying that how do you report that as news it's very much an opinion all right the other amazing and funny thing is did you all see the Jon Stewart interview so Jon Stewart was from The Daily Show as you all know he sort of disappeared from the news and he came back and he essentially was saying that Trump is triggering the media and that the members of the media are taking it personally and because they're taking it personally they're falling into his trap and overreacting and putting all the attention on what he wants and I read this article I just saw for the first time and my article see if you had see if you had the same reaction I did my reaction was this sorry I know you loved it when I cleared my throat on periscope I had the same reaction to Jon Stewart's comment which is uh-oh they're only smart guy came back did you have that impression it feels like he's the only person who understands what's going on who's also a Democrat I guess I think you would he would classify himself as a Democrat have you heard anyone on the entire anti Trump the Democrat side have you heard anyone say what Jon Stewart just said which is so obviously true and matters and frames it correctly and could possibly help them you know recover from their Trump derangement syndrome and here's the best part John Stewart is not suffering from Trump derangement syndrome he's actually looking at it from the outside he's on the inside of you know the political bubble and yet he gave you a view of what it looks like from the outside how many people on the Left have the intellectual capability to do what John Stewart who is you know a political comedian I guess for a living or was that's pretty it's pretty unusual alright so credit where credit is due John Stewart just completely accurately framed the problem on the left and I don't know if they can hear it that's the other interesting thing so it became viral which means that got a lot of attention because it was unique it's because it was from him things he does is more interesting you know he gave us a new look as something that we were used to seeing the old looks but his his take on it was that the media is taking it personally and that they've and that that's causing you know a lot of their their problems is that they're falling into his they're falling into Trump's trap because they take it personally and I think it was brilliant and you got to give him credit oh you know somebody Michael Moore okay I will give you Michael Moore as another person who does seem to understand what's going on from both the inside and the outside I'll give you Michael Moore as well but I think Jon Stewart is another higher level of credibility because Michael Moore understands things he understands Trump better than I think almost anybody on the left that would be true which I think too is credit because Michael Moore understands a certain segment of the population that Trump also understands so I think whatever you want to say in Michael Moore's politics etc he certainly understands this topic Bill Maher somebody saying Bill Maher now I think Bill Maher in the trunk range Minh syndrome category on this topic he seems to be taking it personally I believe there's actually some bad blood between Bill Maher and Trump in the past there was some kind of interaction they had that wasn't good so so those are your big stories let's see what else is happening on CNN that a week before the event they think better Bob Woodward on Trump we are being had he's doing things to distract us from policies so Bob Woodward is sort of agreeing with Jon Stewart that Trump is having his way by the way did you see the clip oh I hope you saw the clip of when what was it that Trump did oh when Trump announced he wanted to end birthright the birthright citizenship with an executive order and of course the experts I think you know 90% or 95% or 99% of the experts are saying you can't do that but see you then realized that it was a distraction from other issues and that it was a positive distraction in other words if if Trump was successful distracting people and making them think about birthright citizenship it was a real good last of thought going into the midterm election and they knew they were being had and they couldn't stop talking about it if you haven't seen that clip of the CNN hosts saying he's just tricking us to make us talk about this and then the coast would say but we're talking about it it's working we can't not talk about it but he's tricking us we know he's tricking us and it's working and we're still doing it but it's the news what are we gonna do it was it was frickin hilarious because they were so unhappy they were so unhappy talking about the news because the news is what the president says it's just always what the president says because he's the president after they had to report it well boy did they don't want to report that it was one of the funniest things you will ever see to watch them essentially sabotaging themselves on live TV because it's not the message they want out there all right now I'm gonna make I'm gonna make a fun prediction for the midterms and it's primarily because I don't think anybody's made this prediction so the people are saying the Senate is probably gonna go Republican so I'll go with that I'll just go with the experts on that so if I'm right or wrong about the Senate you know don't don't put that on my permanent record because I'm just gonna agree with the experts on this I don't have any special kind of insight on it but in the house the house we imagine is supposed to go to to the Democrats that's what the experts have been saying some people are saying well you know maybe these the there's some hidden Trump supporters etc.

I was on Maria Bartiromo --is about a Ramos show yesterday morning and I made this this prediction if the midterms and they'll talk about the house race in particular if the midterms and the house race goes the way everything else is gone in the Trump era what will be the outcome let's see if you can guess it what will be the outcome of the house race if it goes like everything else let's see if anybody else comes to the same answer it's gonna take me a while for you to uh somebody sent a surprise I'd say no not quite so it might be a surprise but there you're you're almost there here's the answer it's going to be a a photo finish with an ambiguous ending so if it's like everything else we won't know who on Election Day here's what I mean by that listen let's say it comes down to a majority of one one two three so so one of the sides wins by a majority of just one or two or three representatives yeah so if it's just that close what do you think people are going to say they're gonna say recount they're gonna say there's something that happened in that district that's fishy wait a minute how come there were more votes in that area than there are people wait a minute why was why was one of those polling places closed early wait a minute why are some of the votes missing wait a minute did Russia have anything to do with the election in this area so this is I'm gonna categorize this as a fun prediction all right meaning that I don't have a ton of confidence in it so when I get this one wrong and you put it on my permanent record just know that I didn't have a lot of confidence in it but for fun if it's like everything else it's going to be something like a tie in the sense that it will go one way or the other but there will be something ambiguous some some gray area some dispute so it won't feel like it's done that's my that is my prediction so my prediction is an ambiguous photo finish with different photos four different finishes just like everything else can there be a tie well there I don't mean a tie literally but I mean the result was so close that the ambiguity would make the difference between which way it went so that's essentially a tie yeah because if you think about it the primary so Trump wins the primary but he has to go to the convention and they're still talk that they're going to try to take it away from them right so you think Trump wins under the the denomination but you're you're not really quite sure because they might take it away from then he wins the presidency but now there's all this question about Russia stuff and you know it's like well we're not gonna let you stay president so it's sort of ambiguous then he goes for the Supreme Court nomination for a Kavanagh and it's like well he's easily gonna get in well maybe not well he's in but maybe we'll maybe we'll claw him back somehow so it's just one thing after another that you think is done that isn't done now I've also made the following prediction and he goes like this in the year 2018 does any adult have a an expectation of privacy in the digital domain in other words does any adult believe that they have actual privacy meaning that no one can ever find out what they're doing on email or text or answering a poll do people think that they have privacy when they answer a phone call a poll most probably think they have enough right most people think well I don't care if I have privacy or not I'm voting for this way or voting for that way I'm just telling you my reasons I don't care if anybody knows that but some people maybe 5% maybe 5% will say to themselves there's no such thing as privacy and there's no way my life is better if people find out and I'm a trump supporter so there's a very high likelihood that something like 5% of the people answering polls are just flat-out lying they're lying just in case just in case they really don't have any privacy and just in case they got on a list somewhere where somebody would hunt them down and kill them for being a trump supporter now I'm not saying that any of those risks are real I'm saying that if you have you know a hundred people and all hundred people have them believe that this is no longer really a thing I mean not if the government really wants to find out who you are some of them I think might luck and the other factor is turnout I've predicted the what I call a jaw-dropping Republican turnout now it might also be that the the Democrats will have incredible turnout so I don't have any kind of a prediction on the Democrat side I suspect it'll be high but on the Republican side it's really gonna be high it could be a record-setting so that's my prediction is jaw-dropping surprisingly big and here are a few of the reasons unlike unlike some midterms I'm no historian so I don't know if it's all but most midterms midterms are usually not just about the president but this president is special in which everything is about Trump so even if it shouldn't be about him if it's not about him it's still about him I think two-thirds of the people voting have said it's sort of a it's sort of a vote that's about the president in their minds so with that many people who think it's about the president and you've got a president with ninety percent support 90 percent support on his own side and what matters most is how many of his own side goes to vote how many of them are actually activated to stand up have we ever seen a situation in which a president with this much persuasion power at the height of his popularity within his own poll has gone out and showed you a tremendous amount of energy of his own this is very important make sure that you take away this point more than anything else I said today the president by going to rally rally rally rally is demonstrating his own level of energy what does he need voters to do he needs them to model him he needs them to pace him he needs the voter to ramp up to his level of energy because that's what gets you off the couch he's bringing these your record-breaking political crowds into an arena and he's showing you how much fun they're having together do you remember all of the all of the video of all the Democrats who are in big crowds having fun together I don't I don't I've seen your pictures of Biden you know talking and you know that there's a crowd there I've seen pictures of you know Kamala Harris and they're not many people in the audience so the Democrats are either small groups or unhappy groups or angry groups in my room that if you were to characterize all of the Democratic get-togethers whether it's the street protests or the you know going to talk to one of their political leaders they're either angry or there are not many of them right that's sort of the vibe Trump is showing us one image after another of enormous Republican crowds and what's the one characteristic that all of the Trump crowds have in common happy happy high-energy happy and they like to win take those three things high energy happy they love they love the the the collective feel of it they love being part of something this is very important the the Trump people really feel part of something that's positive they can feel the love with each other etc so there's this enormous high energy positive thing which is being modeled directly on the leader that they have a 90% approval of President Trump his ability and here's the the bigger point I'm getting to President Trump the most influential person in a hundred years just has directly asked the people who like him best to actually go vote now all politicians ask you to go vote but you've never seen it done like this before you've never seen him model it move your energy up make you part of a group make it the most fun fun thing you did you know this year you went to that event but other people are watching and saying I wish I was in that crowd that looks like would be funny to be there live etc he's created this whole feeling of what it's like to vote for him and it's all positive it's high-energy and it's great and it's you know and it's especially would be entertaining if the Republicans came from behind again because it would be another surprise win it would be like the best day they've ever had I mean you can you can put yourself into that future can you can't you imagine that you voted let's say you're a trump supporter you voted Republican can't you imagine what it feels like watching the results come in and then feeling of victory it would feel amazing so I think Trump's persuasion on turnout will be the best you've ever seen the Democrats of course are highly incentive but their incentive by anger they've got yeah they got some fear they've got some anger you know they've got it's a bench it's a whole bunch of negativity does negativity get you to go somewhere and by the way who is asking the Democrats to vote think about it you know who is asking Republicans to vote President Trump 90% support most influential person of all time who on the Democrat side is asking them to vote because the ask matters it's not enough to just get people in the mood to vote you have to directly to close the sale you have to say here's what I need do this now all the Republicans are doing that they're of course saying their vote you know going sign them they're making a big deal about it but it's all distributed across people who have various levels of approval within the Democrats like no matter who it is on the Democrat side it's gonna be somebody who only has you know forty percent and you know a high-level approval within the group etc so they don't really have a spokesperson who has any kind of persuasive quality whatsoever to get them out there but still they're very motivated I think they'll do fine in terms of turnout alright so there you have my predictions it's gonna be a fun election night I I'm also going to go on record as saying that if the Democrats do take the house that President Trump will give stronger not weaker so remember that so so there's a prediction that I'm confident of it's sort of an if-then prediction so if the if the Democrats take the house the president Trump will get stronger not weaker and the reason is that he's uniquely qualified and capable of working with both sides if he doesn't need to work with both sides because he has a narrow majority of Republicans he's maybe not going to try so hard and the the Democrats will try harder to resist but if the Democrats had some power meaning they had the house they would have to play a little bit productively if you have no power you don't have to be productive if you do have power you kind of have to be productive and that means working with the president who's not on your side so it seems to me that both immigration reform and health care are two areas in which the only way something is going to get done is if both sides agree with it a little bit and both sides are unhappy the only way you get health care and the only way you get immigration is if both sides are unhappy and the only way you get to both sides are unhappy is with the deal that both sides have some responsibility both sides have some power so Trump has two ways to win in this election one way to win is if he gets full stronger Republican control the other way to win is if he doesn't yeah I'm sure he has a very strong preference to to do it the you know the straight way and you know just get more Republicans in that what that would be a first choice but he does have two ways to win that has a lot to do with what's left right he's sort of done good things for the economy he's done good things for North Korea etc you know the list but now let me make another point I've said that one of the things that Trump does right all the time and his opponents do wrong all the time his Trump gets the visuals right so he's talking about immigration at the same time that there's this great us a great bonus a powerful visual thing the caravan itself and then the wall itself is visual and then he shows a picture of a cop-killer on his commercial and that's visual so Trump is visual visual visual visual and he picks also a topic that can be visual what do the the Democrats have health care now imagine your picture of health care you can't do it right imagine health care I know what am I seeing that a doctor you don't there's no there's nothing you can't imagine health care it's a concept people just don't get activated by concepts yeah you can imagine maybe you're writing the check or something about that's as close as you can get imagine let's say what else let's say climate change climate change you can show weather but I'm not sure people are quite connecting all the dots you know climate change doesn't have a good visual either or at least they're not taking advantage of it and part of it partly is because they're they're scientifically you know that they're trapped in their own scientific bias the the Democrats would say that climate change is you know settled science from their point of view that this scientists the consensus is on their side and so they would not want to be anti science to sell the fact that their pro science so it wouldn't make sense and one of the things that they really can't really do is show anecdotes you don't prove science by showing that there was a hurricane that time because there were hurricanes in all times so they they do have a visual they could use but they can't really use it because their brand is we're trying to stick to the facts you know they don't want to depart from the facts on climate science that would be problematic all right has anybody heard from cue lately did Hugh just go away after Jack pasaba k-- essentially laid bare their entire history has Q going away I haven't heard about them lately it feels to me it's W now and did I have anything to do with that I mean Jack had the most to do with it but Scott you have all that roam yeah it seems to me that Hugh went away all right so I'm going to claim victory on correctly identifying Q as not a deep state actor I haven't seen a trump hospital video now that did so people are saying that Jack killed it yeah I mean Jack had the the goods on him so whatever people think about him that changed would have come through Jack's work alright but it helps always to have other voices that are on the same the same side so that you could say oh other people think that do is win Bigley going paper backing yes thanks for asking when Bigley came out in paperback yesterday or day before so you can get your wooden Bigley paper back so I don't know what happened to queue but we don't hear from that much anymore trump hospital video is epic let's see if I can find that right now well I won't do that while you're waiting oak you disappeared thirty days before the election somebody said so it might be that queue needs to stay quiet to keep off the radar for a little while that wouldn't that would not be the wrong thing to do you were wrong about Jack buh all right Q was compromised back in April did I arrest anybody last night oh so we had a good time last night Kristina came over we had lots of trick-or-treaters it was very fun yeah there's a new chapter Oh somebody says is there a new chapter in the Kindle I don't think the Kindle version has a new chapter I believe we just put that in the soft cover but the the new chapter is an update on my predictions so you can see what I got right around when Bigley is has always been on Kindle yes if you're talking about the video where he's visiting after the synagogue the attack I haven't seen that yet all right I've said enough I've got nothing left I'm gonna go look at that video and I'll talk to you all later

but the pom pom pom pom pom pom pom hey

everybody come on in here you know what

time it is

yes I was flying yesterday and I did not

get to do my periscope I missed it I

hope you missed me a little bit so is it

time for the simultaneous imp I believe

it is I believe it is do you have your

cup your mug your vessel your glass your

Stein your container does it have the

liquid of your choice I like coffee join

me for the simultaneous end yes my voice

is all better those of you who heard me

losing my voice the other day it's

because I I don't you know it's weird

but most of the talking I do in any

24-hour day is right here on periscope

so you're used to seeing me talking but

90% of my day is just sitting in front

of my computer thinking hanging out with

Christina we don't do a lot of talking

all right as you know I've been on my

book tour for my book when basically now

out in paperback if you don't like to

read it in English you could read it in

whatever this is or Korean or German or

whatever this is yes you have many

choices I think that was either Chinese

or Japanese I'm not sure but when Bigley

is doing great with some paperback now

so those of you have been waiting for

the lower price it's here and you know

what time of year it is it's time for

your 2019 calendar all right if you

don't have your Dilbert calendar it's

time to get it enough about that let's

talk about the important news of the day

you know the really big stuff such as

Kanye West

I missed a day so

a little behind on the news but most of

you know that Kanye is pulling back from

politics because he says he did not he

did not I hope to design the blex it

t-shirt and hat and logo so he is

because there was a I guess a suggestion

that he was the designer he wanted to

pull back because he felt used now my

take on this is that it's very it would

be very unlikely

if Candace or anybody else intentionally

said hey let's just claim that Kanye

designed this and it's his so I don't

think anybody did that it just sounds

like a miscommunication so the the

actual event is less important than the

bigger picture were any of you surprised

that Kanye pivoted away from Republicans

to think about what he said he wants to

do he wants to run for president 2024 if

Kanye really wanted to run for president

in 2020 for how long should he keep

being more friendly with Republicans

than Democrats well not too long he'd be

better sort of pivot over to the the

Democrats because that's the only party

he could get elected in so as popular as

Kanye is with Republicans he's popular

because of really his style his you know

the fact that he's willing to embrace

you know president Trump so he's popular

for reasons that don't have anything to

do with policy on a policy level it

feels to me he's going to be more likely

leaning Democrat so there's no way he

would run as a Republican but what is

the very strongest package you could

create going into a presidential

election well you saw President Trump do

it he used to be a Democrat used to be a

Democrat now he's a Republican

you saw Mike Bloomberg do a'right used

to be a Republican and then he became a

Democrat to my mind the strongest the

strongest positioning the strongest

setting the table for becoming president

is that you used to be on the other side

or at the very least you used to be

really friendly with the other side

because what do people what is the thing

that people care about most of them

they're voting for president are you on

my side can you understand my side have

you ever had an appreciation from my

side it's one thing that you don't agree

with me you know it's it's routine that

somebody doesn't agree with you

somebody says Reagan did Reagan also

switch was Reagan a Democrat he was

right he also switched because what that

does is that allows the other team to

say well I don't love everything about

your policies but I still like you and

if I still like you maybe more than I

like the one running from my own party

yeah this time I'm gonna go over and

vote the other side so somebody says so

he was pacing us in a sense yes in a

sense he was pacing the Republicans

because he was agreeing with them in

their support of for president Trump as

a person and you know and not damning

him as a crazy racist and stuff like

that and he was also so just to be clear

I don't I don't want to I want to make

sure that I'm not putting any opinions

into Kanye his opinions are just for him

to express so if I've said that

accidentally I think I got close to

saying that you know we'll pull that

back a little bit we don't know what

he's thinking we can only observe what's

happening okay

so what's happening is he's doing

exactly what you would do if you were

really smart and planning to run for

president in 2024 so what you've seen

this week was consistent with being

brilliant

if you plan to run for president in 2024

now here's the here's the other element

it would also be consistent with not

wanting to run for president in 2024

because in either case he wants to

demonstrate his independence of thought

so he can be Pro President Trump as a

person and as a you know wanting to him

to look good as a leader because he

represents the country so that's

essentially what Kanye said but he can

also you know he's a free thinker and he

doesn't have to stay in any camp longer

than he wants to so I like that about I

would say that my my opinion of Kanye

went up a little bit

because it is the time to pivot he needs

to live in the community that is

primarily you know anti-trump so for

practical reasons for professional

reasons for personal reasons and even if

someday he runs for president political

reasons it was important for him to show

some independence which he just

demonstrated in a graphic way now the

actual source of the dispute if you

could call it that I'm not sure dispute

is really the right word but that I

think there was a miscommunication about

the logo probably is not the important

part of the story

probably not all right let's talk about

the campaign ad the president Trump is

running that CNN is labeled on their top

left of their page so as I've taught you

the top left of a news page is the news

that the news organization has judged is

the most important news all right so

CNN's most important news just a few

days before the midterm is Trump

campaign releases racist ad now here's

the thing that's of opinion the it's

purely an opinion that it's a racist ad

and they're actually reporting it like

it's news

and then they don't show the ad so it's

the most important but the most

important news is that the ad is racist

and they don't show it at least yeah I

didn't see it right below that what is

the second most important thing on the

CNN news you're gonna love this the

second most important thing so it's the

top left of the page the second one down

it's a Don Lemon says this is Trump's ad

and here are the facts so in other words

Don Lemon who just came out as a racist

he literally just came out on TV

publicly as a racist who's got a problem

with white men that really happened I'm

it sounds like I'm exaggerating but

please you know if he if you think that

sounded like even a little bit of an

exaggeration just Google Don Lemon white

man you know you'll see the video in

which he says that the real problem in

this country yeah you should really hear

it in his own words because I don't want

to accidentally mischaracterize it but

his essence is he has a problem with

white men as the problem in this country

now I'm not gonna fact-check that I'm

just saying that he said that and by the

standards of this country that would be

racist as I understand what the word

means you know with someone who's biased

against a particular race or gender in

this case - because he made made it male

so he's talking against Trump's ad the

CNN has labeled as racist the ad itself

if you haven't seen it I'm not going to

play it but the ad itself is shows a cop

killer who I guess is a must have come

from south of the border and he's the

cop killers in court being I guess he

just got convicted for killing two cops

and he's laughing and saying that he

wished he'd killed more and it's

translated from Spanish so you can tell

that he's you know wasn't born in this

country now it's just one guy and then

it shows yeah other criminal types in

the the caravan etc now is it racist to

show one guy who accurately did come

across the border and then killed two

cops is it racist can facts ever be

racist I guess that's the question I

would ask you can facts ever be racist

nice I could I guess they couldn't be

depending on how you organize them right

if you organize them so you left out on

other facts and it created a misleading

narrative well I didn't see anywhere in

the ad this suggested that everyone in

the caravan was a cop-killer that wasn't

there in fact I would think any

reasonable adult looking at that ad

would say oh there are some bad people

in this group

and we don't know how many I don't know

how you could come to any other

conclusion except that some of them

coming across the border whether it's in

the caravan or just the general

immigration that some number of them are

committing bad crimes is that racist

i I I get I get how they take it now

they're comparing it of course to the

Willie Horton ad back in the George Bush

era and I don't remember exactly the

Willie Horton had itself but the the the

sense of it was that Willie Horton was

an african-american man who had

committed some kind of crime he got out

I think I'm some kind of early release

and then he killed somebody I think

that's the basic idea there and I don't

remember the ad itself but I guess I had

more racial you know it was trying a

little bit harder to make a racial case

but I'm not sure that that applies so

much when you're not talking about

you're not talking about domestic actors

and you're not talking about necessarily

one country you know you're talking

about a whole region you're talking

about crime that's coming in nobody

doubts crime is coming in they just you

know they

disagree about how much of it or how

much it matters but it's it's

interesting that CNN reports as News

their opinion have you have you seen

anything like that before

who who reports who reports as news

something that's clearly of opinion even

if the opinion is right I it doesn't

even matter whether the pendant is true

or false I'm saying that how do you

report that as news it's very much an

opinion all right the other amazing and

funny thing is did you all see the Jon

Stewart interview so Jon Stewart was

from The Daily Show as you all know he

sort of disappeared from the news and he

came back and he essentially was saying

that Trump is triggering the media and

that the members of the media are taking

it personally and because they're taking

it personally they're falling into his

trap and overreacting and putting all

the attention on what he wants and I

read this article I just saw for the

first time and my article see if you had

see if you had the same reaction I did

my reaction was this sorry I know you

loved it when I cleared my throat on

periscope I had the same reaction to Jon

Stewart's comment which is uh-oh they're

only smart guy came back did you have

that impression it feels like he's the

only person who understands what's going

on who's also a Democrat I guess I think

you would he would classify himself as a

Democrat have you heard anyone on the

entire anti Trump the Democrat side have

you heard anyone say what Jon Stewart

just said which is so obviously true and

matters and frames it correctly

and could possibly help them you know

recover from their Trump derangement

syndrome and here's the best part

John Stewart is not suffering from Trump

derangement syndrome he's actually

looking at it from the outside he's on

the inside of you know the political

bubble and yet he gave you a view of

what it looks like from the outside how

many people on the Left have the

intellectual capability to do what John

Stewart who is you know a political

comedian I guess for a living or was

that's pretty it's pretty unusual

alright so credit where credit is due

John Stewart just completely accurately

framed the problem on the left and I

don't know if they can hear it that's

the other interesting thing so it became

viral which means that got a lot of

attention because it was unique it's

because it was from him things he does

is more interesting you know he gave us

a new look as something that we were

used to seeing the old looks but his his

take on it was that the media is taking

it personally and that they've and that

that's causing you know a lot of their

their problems is that they're falling

into his they're falling into Trump's

trap because they take it personally and

I think it was brilliant and you got to

give him credit oh you know somebody

Michael Moore okay I will give you

Michael Moore as another person who does

seem to understand what's going on from

both the inside and the outside

I'll give you Michael Moore as well but

I think Jon Stewart is another higher

level of credibility because Michael

Moore understands things he understands

Trump better than I think almost anybody

on the left that would be true which I

think too is credit because Michael

Moore understands a certain segment of

the population that Trump also

understands so I think whatever you want

to say in Michael Moore's politics etc

he certainly understands this topic

Bill Maher somebody saying Bill Maher

now I think Bill Maher

in the trunk range Minh syndrome

category on this topic he seems to be

taking it personally I believe there's

actually some bad blood between Bill

Maher and Trump in the past there was

some kind of interaction they had that

wasn't good so so those are your big

stories let's see what else is happening

on CNN that a week before the event they

think better Bob Woodward on Trump we

are being had he's doing things to

distract us from policies so Bob

Woodward is sort of agreeing with Jon

Stewart

that Trump is having his way by the way

did you see the clip oh I hope you saw

the clip of when what was it that Trump

did oh when Trump announced he wanted to

end birthright the birthright

citizenship with an executive order and

of course the experts I think you know

90% or 95% or 99% of the experts are

saying you can't do that but see you

then realized that it was a distraction

from other issues and that it was a

positive distraction in other words if

if Trump was successful distracting

people and making them think about

birthright citizenship it was a real

good last of thought going into the

midterm election and they knew they were

being had and they couldn't stop talking

about it if you haven't seen that clip

of the CNN hosts saying he's just

tricking us to make us talk about this

and then the coast would say but we're

talking about it it's working we can't

not talk about it but he's tricking us

we know he's tricking us and it's

working and we're still doing it but

it's the news what are we gonna do it

was it was frickin hilarious

because they were so unhappy they were

so unhappy talking about the news

because the news is what the president

says

it's just always what the president says

because he's the president after they

had to report it well boy did they don't

want to report that it was one of the

funniest things you will ever see

to watch them essentially sabotaging

themselves on live TV because it's not

the message they want out there all

right now I'm gonna make I'm gonna make

a fun prediction for the midterms and

it's primarily because I don't think

anybody's made this prediction so the

people are saying the Senate is probably

gonna go Republican so I'll go with that

I'll just go with the experts on that so

if I'm right or wrong about the Senate

you know don't don't put that on my

permanent record because I'm just gonna

agree with the experts on this I don't

have any special kind of insight on it

but in the house the house we imagine is

supposed to go to to the Democrats

that's what the experts have been saying

some people are saying well you know

maybe these the there's some hidden

Trump supporters etc I was on Maria

Bartiromo --is about a Ramos show

yesterday morning and I made this this

prediction if the midterms and they'll

talk about the house race in particular

if the midterms and the house race goes

the way everything else is gone

in the Trump era what will be the

outcome let's see if you can guess it

what will be the outcome of the house

race if it goes like everything else

let's see if anybody else comes to the

same answer it's gonna take me a while

for you to uh somebody sent a surprise

I'd say no not quite

so it might be a surprise but there

you're you're almost there here's the

answer it's going to be a a photo finish

with an ambiguous ending so if it's like

everything else we won't know who

on Election Day here's what I mean by

that

listen let's say it comes down to a

majority of one one two three so so one

of the sides wins by a majority of just

one or two or three representatives yeah

so if it's just that close what do you

think people are going to say they're

gonna say recount they're gonna say

there's something that happened in that

district that's fishy wait a minute how

come there were more votes in that area

than there are people wait a minute why

was why was one of those polling places

closed early wait a minute why are some

of the votes missing wait a minute

did Russia have anything to do with the

election in this area so this is I'm

gonna categorize this as a fun

prediction all right

meaning that I don't have a ton of

confidence in it so when I get this one

wrong and you put it on my permanent

record just know that I didn't have a

lot of confidence in it but for fun if

it's like everything else it's going to

be something like a tie in the sense

that it will go one way or the other

but there will be something ambiguous

some some gray area some dispute so it

won't feel like it's done that's my that

is my prediction so my prediction is an

ambiguous photo finish with different

photos four different finishes just like

everything else can there be a tie well

there I don't mean a tie literally but I

mean the result was so close that the

ambiguity would make the difference

between which way it went so that's

essentially a tie

yeah because if you think about it the

primary so Trump wins the primary but he

has to go to the convention and they're

still talk that they're going to try to

take it away from them

right so you think Trump wins under the

the denomination but you're you're not

really quite sure because they might

take it away from then he wins the

presidency but now there's all this

question about Russia stuff and you know

it's like well we're not gonna let you

stay president so it's sort of ambiguous

then he goes for the Supreme Court

nomination for a Kavanagh and it's like

well he's easily gonna get in well maybe

not well he's in but maybe we'll maybe

we'll claw him back somehow so it's just

one thing after another that you think

is done that isn't done now I've also

made the following prediction and he

goes like this in the year 2018 does any

adult have a an expectation of privacy

in the digital domain in other words

does any adult believe that they have

actual privacy meaning that no one can

ever find out what they're doing on

email or text or answering a poll do

people think that they have privacy when

they answer a phone call a poll most

probably think they have enough right

most people think well I don't care if I

have privacy or not I'm voting for this

way or voting for that way I'm just

telling you my reasons I don't care if

anybody knows that but some people maybe

5% maybe 5% will say to themselves

there's no such thing as privacy and

there's no way my life is better if

people find out and I'm a trump

supporter so there's a very high

likelihood that something like 5% of the

people answering polls are just flat-out

lying they're lying just in case just in

case they really don't have any privacy

and just in case they got on a list

somewhere where somebody would hunt them

down and kill them for being a trump

supporter now I'm not saying that any of

those risks are real I'm saying that if

you have you know a hundred people and

all hundred people have them believe

that

this is no longer really a thing I mean

not if the government really wants to

find out who you are some of them I

think might luck and the other factor is

turnout I've predicted the what I call a

jaw-dropping Republican turnout now it

might also be that the the Democrats

will have incredible turnout so I don't

have any kind of a prediction on the

Democrat side I suspect it'll be high

but on the Republican side it's really

gonna be high it could be a

record-setting so that's my prediction

is jaw-dropping surprisingly big and

here are a few of the reasons unlike

unlike some midterms I'm no historian so

I don't know if it's all but most

midterms midterms are usually not just

about the president but this president

is special in which everything is about

Trump so even if it shouldn't be about

him if it's not about him it's still

about him I think two-thirds of the

people voting have said it's sort of a

it's sort of a vote that's about the

president in their minds so with that

many people who think it's about the

president and you've got a president

with ninety percent support 90 percent

support on his own side and what matters

most is how many of his own side goes to

vote how many of them are actually

activated to stand up have we ever seen

a situation in which a president with

this much persuasion power at the height

of his popularity within his own poll

has gone out and showed you a tremendous

amount of energy of his own this is very

important make sure that you take away

this point more than anything else I

said today the president by going to

rally rally rally rally is demonstrating

his own level of energy what does he

need voters to do he needs them to model

him he needs them to pace him he needs

the voter

to ramp up to his level of energy

because that's what gets you off the

couch he's bringing these your

record-breaking political crowds into an

arena and he's showing you how much fun

they're having together do you remember

all of the all of the video of all the

Democrats who are in big crowds having

fun together

I don't I don't I've seen your pictures

of Biden you know talking and you know

that there's a crowd there I've seen

pictures of you know Kamala Harris and

they're not many people in the audience

so the Democrats are either small groups

or unhappy groups or angry groups in my

room that if you were to characterize

all of the Democratic get-togethers

whether it's the street protests or the

you know going to talk to one of their

political leaders they're either angry

or there are not many of them right

that's sort of the vibe Trump is showing

us one image after another of enormous

Republican crowds and what's the one

characteristic that all of the Trump

crowds have in common

happy happy high-energy happy and they

like to win take those three things

high energy happy they love they love

the the the collective feel of it they

love being part of something this is

very important the the Trump people

really feel part of something that's

positive they can feel the love with

each other etc so there's this enormous

high energy positive thing which is

being modeled directly on the leader

that they have a 90% approval of

President Trump his ability and here's

the the bigger point I'm getting to

President Trump the most influential

person in a hundred years

just has directly asked the people who

like him best to actually go vote now

all politicians ask you to go vote but

you've never seen it done like this

before you've never seen him model it

move your energy up make you part of a

group make it the most fun fun thing you

did you know this year you went to that

event but other people are watching and

saying I wish I was in that crowd that

looks like would be funny to be there

live etc he's created this whole feeling

of what it's like to vote for him and

it's all positive it's high-energy and

it's great and it's you know and it's

especially would be entertaining if the

Republicans came from behind again

because it would be another surprise win

it would be like the best day they've

ever had I mean you can you can put

yourself into that future can you can't

you imagine that you voted let's say

you're a trump supporter you voted

Republican can't you imagine what it

feels like watching the results come in

and then feeling of victory it would

feel amazing so I think Trump's

persuasion on turnout will be the best

you've ever seen the Democrats of course

are highly incentive but their incentive

by anger they've got yeah they got some

fear they've got some anger you know

they've got it's a bench it's a whole

bunch of negativity does negativity get

you to go somewhere and by the way who

is asking the Democrats to vote think

about it you know who is asking

Republicans to vote President Trump

90% support most influential person of

all time who on the Democrat side is

asking them to vote because the ask

matters it's not enough to just get

people in the mood to vote you have to

directly to close the sale you have to

say here's what I need do this now all

the Republicans are doing that they're

of course saying their vote you know

going sign them they're making a big

deal about it but it's all distributed

across people who have various levels of

approval within the Democrats like no

matter who it is on the Democrat side

it's gonna be somebody who only has you

know forty percent and you know a

high-level approval within the group etc

so they don't really have a spokesperson

who has any kind of persuasive quality

whatsoever

to get them out there but still they're

very motivated I think they'll do fine

in terms of turnout alright so there you

have my predictions it's gonna be a fun

election night I I'm also going to go on

record as saying that if the Democrats

do take the house that President Trump

will give stronger not weaker so

remember that so so there's a prediction

that I'm confident of it's sort of an

if-then prediction so if the if the

Democrats take the house the president

Trump will get stronger not weaker and

the reason is that he's uniquely

qualified and capable of working with

both sides if he doesn't need to work

with both sides because he has a narrow

majority of Republicans he's maybe not

going to try so hard and the the

Democrats will try harder to resist but

if the Democrats had some power meaning

they had the house they would have to

play a little bit productively if you

have no power you don't have to be

productive if you do have power you kind

of have to be productive and that means

working with the president who's not on

your side so it seems to me that both

immigration reform and health care are

two areas in which the only way

something is going to get done is if

both sides agree with it a little bit

and both sides are unhappy the only way

you get health care and the only way you

get immigration is if both sides are

unhappy and the only way you get to both

sides are unhappy is with the deal that

both sides have some responsibility both

sides have some power so Trump has two

ways to win in this election one way to

win is if he gets full stronger

Republican control the other way to win

is if he doesn't yeah I'm sure he has a

very strong preference to to do it the

you know the straight way and you know

just get more Republicans in that what

that would be a first choice but he does

have two ways to win that has a lot to

do with what's left right he's sort of

done good things for the economy he's

done good things for North Korea etc you

know the list but now let me make

another point I've said that one of the

things that Trump does right all the

time and his opponents do wrong all the

time his Trump gets the visuals right so

he's talking about immigration at the

same time that there's this great us a

great bonus a powerful visual thing the

caravan itself and then the wall itself

is visual and then he shows a picture of

a cop-killer on his commercial and

that's visual so Trump is visual visual

visual visual and he picks also a topic

that can be visual what do the the

Democrats have health care now imagine

your picture of health care you can't do

it right imagine health care I know what

am I seeing that a doctor you don't

there's no there's nothing you can't

imagine health care it's a concept

people just don't get activated by

concepts yeah you can imagine maybe

you're writing the check or something

about that's as close as you can get

imagine let's say what else let's say

climate change climate change you can

show weather but I'm not sure people are

quite connecting all the dots you know

climate change doesn't have a good

visual either or at least they're not

taking advantage of it and part of it

partly is because they're they're

scientifically you know that they're

trapped in their own scientific bias the

the Democrats would say that climate

change is you know settled science from

their point of view that this

scientists the consensus is on their

side and so they would not want to be

anti science to sell the fact that their

pro science so it wouldn't make sense

and one of the things that they really

can't really do is show anecdotes you

don't prove science by showing that

there was a hurricane that time because

there were hurricanes in all times

so they they do have a visual they could

use but they can't really use it because

their brand is we're trying to stick to

the facts you know they don't want to

depart from the facts on climate science

that would be problematic all right

has anybody heard from cue lately did

Hugh just go away after Jack pasaba k--

essentially laid bare their entire

history has Q going away I haven't heard

about them lately it feels to me it's W

now and did I have anything to do with

that I mean Jack had the most to do with

it but Scott you have all that roam yeah

it seems to me that Hugh went away all

right so I'm going to claim victory on

correctly identifying Q as not a deep

state actor I haven't seen a trump

hospital video now

that did so people are saying that Jack

killed it yeah I mean Jack had the the

goods on him so whatever people think

about him that changed would have come

through Jack's work alright but it helps

always to have other voices that are on

the same the same side so that you could

say oh other people think that do is win

Bigley going paper backing yes thanks

for asking when Bigley came out in

paperback yesterday or day before so you

can get your wooden Bigley paper back so

I don't know what happened to queue but

we don't hear from that much anymore

trump hospital video is epic let's see

if I can find that right now

well I won't do that while you're

waiting oak you disappeared thirty days

before the election somebody said so it

might be that queue needs to stay quiet

to keep off the radar for a little while

that wouldn't that would not be the

wrong thing to do

you were wrong about Jack buh all right

Q was compromised back in April did I

arrest anybody last night oh so we had a

good time last night

Kristina came over we had lots of

trick-or-treaters it was very fun yeah

there's a new chapter

Oh somebody says is there a new chapter

in the Kindle I don't think the Kindle

version has a new chapter I believe we

just put that in the soft cover but the

the new chapter is an update on my

predictions so you can see what I got

right around when Bigley is has always

been on Kindle yes if you're talking

about the video where he's visiting

after the synagogue the attack I haven't

seen that yet all right I've said enough

I've got nothing left

I'm gonna go look at that video and I'll

talk to you all later