Episode 1153 Scott Adams - Court Packers, Immunity, Biden Blunders, Missing Coronavirus Data

hey come on in here everybody it's time it's time for coffee with Scott Adams best part of the day I think so yeah I think so there was a little bit of question whether it was the best part of the day or really just top two top three but I think I think we have our answer day after day best part of the day and all you need to hold on let me put on my microphone this will be better something tells me you weren't hearing me as well as you should have how about now yeah better better isn't it yeah you thought this couldn't get better and it just did surprise yeah and all you need to do all you need to do to take this to the next level and see if you can find yourself a cuper Mugger a glass of tanker chel or sign a cantey juger flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid I like coffee and join me now for the unparallel pleasure of the dopamine hit of the day the thing that makes everything better and I'm going to ask you to savor it yeah savor it Go o yeah yeah savor it savor it okay good well so today later today I will be appearing on MSNBC you're not going to want to miss that I don't know what kind of questions they're going to ask me I'll be on Ary Mur show at uh the they give a start time that's usually well in front of the time I'm actually on camera but uh 6:00 p.m.

eastern time 300 p.m.

at California time and uh they'll be talking to me so we'll see how that goes you know I think I told you I I uh started saying no to all uh interview requests recently so I don't have I don't think I have anything else on my calendar uh but when this one came in I thought to myself well this one's going to be too much fun I'm going to have to take this one um it has been brought to my attention that there's a very interesting piece of content on uh on HBO called The Vow it's a multiart uh documentary about a cult it's called it's called a cult called uh anx or something NX I VM I don't know how you pronounce it next NEX of but uh I started watching it and I think I'm halfway through but uh I can already tell you you've got to watch this thing so I will be talking about it in the context of persuasion because the cult has some interesting techniques and it is really good documentary because the access they have where actually things are on film or on audio it's pretty remarkable and if you really want to understand uh how influenceable or how persuadable people are or what they are willing to believe you got to watch this thing because if you think people are gullible or people can be uh fooled you you haven't seen anything and I'll talk about the technique after I give you time to watch it so allegedly today there's a big announcement from Apple about their 5G phone and most of you are saying to yourself well that's nice a 5G phone it'll be a little bit faster than a 4G phone aren't we glad that each of our phones are a little bit better than the last one but I think you'd be missing the big story on this one if you didn't notice stocks were uh solidly up yesterday and at least part of the reason is probably apple and part of the reason is when 5G becomes common now you've got you've got a little bit of a pipeline problem uh or a capacity problem so I don't know if your 5G phone is going to give you 5G speed right away every place you would use it but probably you know it'll probably start out pretty good and here's the thing you need to know about speed speed doesn't just help you do what you were going to do anyway but make it fast faster this kind of speed will change what you do you'll be able to do things that you couldn't do before uh I don't know if that means Holograms or 3D or virtual reality worlds probably all of that uh I don't know if it means um just completely changing how you commute we almost can't see the ways this see the ways this will change things let me give you my example if you have a uh uh let's say a car that can go 5 miles an hour you can use it to Tool around locally but you're not going to take it very far but if you have a car that can go 100 miles an hour and it can you know dry for hours and hours then it's a whole different application it's not something you use around town it's something you can take a long trip with so this 5G stuff is way bigger than you think it is and it'll take a while for all the all the reasons that that's true to seep into your Consciousness this is gigantic um so I tried watching the Supreme Court nominee hearings for ACB uh Amy con Barrett and I thought the whole thing was so worthless I couldn't really watch it is anybody trying to watch that thing I feel sorry for the uh the News Network that are covering it CU they kind of have to cover it it's big news but there's literally nothing happening because apparently the Democrats don't want to go too hard at uh the nominee because it might backfire but on the other hand they have to act like they're putting up a fight or they have to use their time to complain about the president or or Obamacare so it turned into nothing but a theater it we took this important government process and just turned it into you know Kabuki theater or something it doesn't have any functional purpose at all and and yet we're going to still do it that's the weird thing about people I suppose as the dilber cartoonist I'm glad it happens but people will do things they know don't make sense just because of inertia or the way things are so that's what we're saying I I would say that's worth about zero minutes of your time to watch those hearings because you know where that's going to go um are you disappointed with the Republican uh and Trump plans on healthc care I feel as if Trump has a far better um at least opportunity to sell his health care preferred you know method if he would package it up better but the way it's being framed right now is that there's this thing called the ACA or Obamacare and that Trump wants to kill it and that's the frame he wants to kill it and he doesn't have anything that has a name on it that's sort of packaged as it's replacement so if you're a senior citizen or you're just somebody who thinks you're at risk of losing your health care what are you going to think about this situation you're going to say to yourself uh I kind of know what Obamacare is cuz I think I have it and the Republicans are offering freaking nothing now that's not true they are actually offering a bunch of stuff but they haven't packaged it in any way so when you think about it you don't think of it as anything you say well I'm glad that you know maybe there's something about drug prices going down and you know I'm happy that maybe the Mandate won't be there and I might be happy about you know Tella tella Health being you know allowed over State boundaries Etc so if you thought about it there'd be a whole bunch of individual things that you liked but they don't feel like a replacement for Obama.

Care it just feels like you're losing something and have I told you before that the threat of losing something always feels more oppressive than the opportunity to get something so the way human psychology works is that we're way more concerned about losing something we already have than we are excited about getting a new thing and that's very important to know about people so right now what uh what the uh Trump Administration is offering is less how would you have how would you like to have less stuff now would they're not that is not an accurate description of what they're offering but it feels like it and they've sort of allowed that frame to to take form that there is this Health Care thing yeah it's not perfect but even that's going to go away that doesn't describe what would happen but that's the frame that has taken form and I think the Republicans have to answer for that I would go so far as to say that if if uh if Trump loses and let's say the Republicans lose the Senate as well and if it turns out that the reason that that happened was people were concerned about health care and they didn't think the Republicans had enough of a plan I would say they earned the loss I would say the Republicans deserve to lose under those conditions now I don't want that I don't want that to happen I would hope that they would do a little better job in the next next few weeks of saying what they would do versus the ACA but at the moment they have framed it in a way they deserve to lose honestly because healthc care is uh kind of what's left now if they did lose because of that the irony would be that Trump would have succeeded so well that he succeeded him himself out of a job meaning that the only thing left to talk about was the thing he didn't make enough of a you know an impact on because we wouldn't be talking about Isis cuz he took care of it we're not going to be talking about the NAFTA cuz he renegotiated it we're not going to be talking about North Korea because they seem to be sort of not a problem at the moment we're not going to be talking about uh renegotiating with China because that will be already underway we're not going to be talking so much about the you know even the Border because the Border looks like it became somewhat less of a problem because immigration slowed down I believe because of Corona virus so the so the president by doing a good job has reduced the number of topics we care about and even the economy is recovering well people would say well I think it's on the right path that probably do okay under a different Administration so he really has narrowed the targets down to the one thing that he's not strong on which is Healthcare he kind of needs to fix that and pretty quickly I would think um and as I say he there's plenty to talk about and here's what here's what I think the Republicans have done wrong from the start and I've said this the Democrats have a better goal but the Republicans have a better system now I favor systems over goals so therefore I favor the Republican approach but they haven't uh but they haven't framed it right they haven't packaged it right and here's how I would package it I would accept the democrat's goal and I would say yeah even as a republican it is our absolute goal that everybody will have health care Affordable Health Care we'll just get there in a different way and what we would hope is that we would take it from whatever it is now I don't know 12% 8 % what how many people don't have health care at the moment and I would say okay it's it's at this number whatever it is around 10% uh by the end of my fourth year I would like that to get that down to 2% if you heard something like that you might say to yourself okay they got a system they've got a goal that I agree with and Bernie's got you know if you look at sort of the Bernie type plans that Biden might do or come Cala Harris might do it looks more like it's harder to get there it's it's like they don't have a plan to get there that makes sense math wise so I think so I think that's where the Republicans could go um I've suggested on Twitter that Trump should run an ad saying that he's the uh only candidate for president who's immune to the Corona virus now of course there is a debate as to whether uh as to whether Trump has any immunity or if he has immunity is it short term some say four months some say longer and I don't know that it matters because it would be so hilarious if he started tweeting that he's the only candidate who is immune to the Corona virus that the Press would go nuts because they'd be no no that is not scientifically valid and the uh uh wish you could shop for doctors by procedure yeah that's a good comment um anyway so it would be funny if he did that I don't think he will uh a troll came after me today on Twitter and said he can't wait to see how unhappy I am and you know what will I do if Trump were to lose the election and and I replied back to the effect I don't think you know me very well I would get over that in about 10 minutes I don't have a I don't have a long recovery time from Bad News you know some some bad news you have to work on you know causes you work to get out of the hole you ended up in but I always spend a lot of time Fring about the past and the past happens immediately right you know if it turned out and I'm still predicting that Trump will win but if it turned out that he didn't I'm pretty sure I would get over that in about 10 minutes that's just me you might have a different experience um Biden apparently has revealed a little bit about his court packing ways and by the way is it just me or does Court packing sound vaguely like an insult you freaking Court Packer doesn't it just have the right consonant and S sounds to sound like an insult you freaking Court Packer you damn Court Packer you well it sounds like an insult and and here's what Biden said uh to give us another hint what he's thinking about he said quote I'm not a fan of Court packing but I don't want to get off on that whole issue Biden told CNN CNN affiliate I want to keep focused the president the president would love nothing better than to fight about whether or not I would in fact pack the court or not pack the court is is he the dumbest guy you've ever met in your life now I think he might have been smart at one point in his life uh yeah no fair with the uh comments I'm saying there let's let's let's uh let's not make it uh let's not make it gay jokes okay the court Packer by by itself sounds like an insult you don't have to bring it into another domain um so here he is saying he's not a fan of Court packing he's very cleverly or stupidly I haven't decided which it might actually be brilliant because we might have reached a point where people are so irrational about everything that Biden can actually just say something that he knows will be taken two different ways by two different groups so he can say something that will make Republicans sound comfortable because he says I'm not a fan of Court packing so if you're a republican you hear that say not a fan of Court packing okay okay he's obviously not a guy who's going to do core packing so I guess I feel comfortable about that so the Republicans have something they can you know hold on to Meanwhile the the progressives who would like some cor packing they listen to the second part of it he goes you I just don't want to get off on that whole issue so uh uh I don't want him to fight about whether I would or would not pack the court so he's still leaving it open leaving it open but here's the real question why are you asking Joe Biden about coure packing the only one that matters yeah I'm seeing in the comments your way ahead of me does it does Camala Harris like Court packing because something like greater than half of Voters including the people voting for who would vote for Biden even most of them believe he won't make it four years so you're not really talking about Biden's opinion you're talking about Biden's opinion for a while plus kamala's kamla's opinion for whatever time is remaining or even the second term if if she were the one to run for the term after that so uh shouldn't we be really pushing on that you know I think we've heard everything we need to from Joe Biden but we kind of need to hear from the VP nominee and if we don't hear from that you have to assume that she's in favor of it or at least that there's some chance she's in favor of it uh which uh which should change people Minds all right there's a CDC study uh this will be a good indication of how useless data is CDC studies shows that 85% of covid cases were people who often or always wear masks so what what's that tell you number one is from the CDC so you can trust that right no not anymore unfortunately we we've had a bad experience with experts recently so there's there's no such thing as a a credible source of data anymore there there are still organizations that are sort of credible but not when they give you data it doesn't matter who it is anybody giving you data in 2020 is probably lying to you or incorrect uh and when I say probably I mean nine and a 10 times so would you conclude that if 85% % of people who get Co wore their masks what's the obvious implication all right draw a conclusion 85% of them wore masks and got it anyway therefore go therefore masks don't work right it's good evidence it comes from the CDC so that's reliable right and 85% of the people with masks got it anyway so I guess those masks don't work is that what you have concluded well if you're bad at analyzing data you concluded that if you're good at analyzing data you might say something like uh Julia Pollock tweeted who is an economist what if I told you about economists economists are trained at understanding whether the right things have been compared and knowing and knowing whether a rational comparison has been made and she points out the following two problems number one um it's people who claim to have worn masks people lie people lie about how often they wear masks especially if they're being asked by somebody you know would judge you if a stranger calls you and says do you wear your mask often even people who don't wear masks often or don't think they wear them that often are going to be tempted to to say oh yeah yeah I totally wear my mask pretty much all the time even if they don't that's one problem I think that's the smaller one and then the other problem is that that they're not accounting for the differences in risk and exposure exactly who wears a mask in the first place somebody who needs to do do people get Corona virus if there are people who are not around any virus the people who don't wear masks are far more likely to be the people who who rightly uh judge that they're not at much risk because they're maybe you know not spending time around crowds maybe they live in a town that has almost or no Corona virus risk you know maybe they're maybe they're young you know so they're not bothering but um correlation on this is probably backwards uh it's probably backwards now you can't tell but you have to allow this great possibility that the reason people wear masks in certain situations and they're less likely to wear masks in other is because they know where the virus is at least statistically and so they wear the masks if they're in a place where there's a lot of virus now where are you likely to get a virus probably in a place with a lot of viruses uh I I used to joke where I lived a few a few homes ago whenever I looked outside and I saw somebody going for a run they would almost always be overweight and I would say to myself that's weird does running make you fat because all the people I see running look like they're trying to lose weight so running must make you fat and then I of and of course that's a joke the correlation is back Wards the people who thought they needed to lose a few pounds went running so I I think that might be what's happening with this mask thing is that uh it's it's useless data in any case um California has an interesting situation apparently some GOP entity has put up a ballot collection boxes of their own you didn't see that coming did you so there are these officiall looking ballot collection boxes that are not trying to look like government entities so they're not pretending they're the post office it's just it's obviously a private GOP thing and you can just throw your uh throw your ballot in there do you trust that would you trust a private ballot collection box that's not a government mailbox if you trust that you're really gullible now I'm not going to say that the people who put them up there have bad intentions don't know I'm just saying that I wouldn't put my ballot in a private ballot collection box and if you're if you're dumb enough to do that you shouldn't be voting you're you're not smart enough to vote if you put your if you put your Val you know Bob's collection box you're saying to yourself well it looks like they spelled all the words right on the collection box looks good enough to me what could go wrong and and so the government of California has declared that these things are illegal but here's the funny part how can it be illegal to have a box with some words on it can't it couldn't possibly be illegal because it's not pretending to do anything to be anything other than what it is it would certainly be illegal if it were pretending to be the US Postal Service right that would be illegal it would be illegal if they were you know claiming to be something they weren't but it's claiming to be exactly what it is a convenient way to have your ballot uh get picked up now I certainly wouldn't trust it but how is it illegal let me ask you this if I took a box you know just a box I could carry and I knocked on your door and I said hey you know I'm I'm picking up some ballots and I can save you a trip to the mailbox if you like you can throw your ballot in my box that's in my hand and I'll carry it over to the mailbox for you I'll carry it to the post office would that be illegal well it depends on your state right if you live in a state where uh ballot harvesting is illegal yes doesn't matter if you have a separate box doesn't matter if you knock on the door if your state says you can't bring somebody else's ballots in it's illegal but in California apparently that's not illegal it's not illegal to knock on the door and say can I take your ballot so the state of California is trying to claim that these little boxes that do the same thing is knocking on the door it's just a little bit more efficient why knock on the door if you're not ready you know wait till you're ready you just put it in the box and the the thing that's hilarious about this is that I'm pretty sure democr Democrats thought they had the advantage with this ballot harvesting stuff and then the Republicans do what Republicans do what is it the Republicans do that's better than what uh Democrats do consistently they come up with better systems if you're going to if you're going to build something or manage something call a republican Republicans are pretty good on systems they're pretty good at setting up a you know a mechanism you know figuring out how to make something work that's what they do right it's what they do Democrats their system looks a little bit like a chop or Chaz right looks a little bit more chaotic so you don't want to trust the Democrats to set up a system uh so they set up they set up this thing and the very first thing that happens is the the Republicans in California come up with a superior system and they get these boxes built and distributed all over and now they have now the government's going to have to fight with what it means to be a to to be harvesting ballots and as far as I know they're going to have a hard time declaring these things illegal because I don't think there's any law that says you can't have an accurately labeled box sitting in on your on your lawn if it's accurately labeled it's accurate um so anyway that's hilarious on a completely different topic uh I follow a Twitter account by the name of somebody named Brian Rome r o m m l e if you want to look for it definitely worth following he has lots of uh new technologies and you know what's what's coming next kind of tweets and one of them just just will blow your head off apparently now our hologram technology is so good that there's this device from let's see called uh uh Port L hologram so you can follow them at at Port p o TL hologram all one word port L hologram and you can see that they have this thing that's uh phone booth sized in which inside the little phone booth sized hologram generator there is a full-sized human being who looks exactly like somebody you're standing in front of and and you know they're walking and talking and they they could be a deep fake or that or it could be a projection of somebody who's standing somewhere else and they're just being projected as a hologram and uh it looks pretty amazing looks pretty amazing somebody says you just looked and it looks terrible you you must be looking at something different than what I'm looking at but it is it will be difficult to explain how powerful this is and let me tell you a little story from my experience to give you a sense uh yeah my cat boo is doing a walk by I told you this a while ago um Microsoft has uh a version of their uh uh what do you call enhanced reality where it it places objects in the room with you but you can't see them unless you're wearing the special goggles now if you're wearing the special goggles you know you have a a cool experience and here's the experience I had when I tried them out in my home I saw a demo version before they were available I put on the on the goggles in my own home this is the key part my own home and I put them on and I turned on a u a I think it was a a mystery game so it was like a murder mystery game where there would be characters that would interact in your space and there would be this murder mystery and you'd have to figure it out I guess and I put the glasses on and I see it map the room it it puts a a layer of uh like wireframe you could see the wireframe going over your furniture and stuff in your room and you think whoa that's cool it just mapped my whole room but here's the freaky part it didn't just map the space in your room it knew what the things were it knew what a chair was was uh my cat's going to do another walkr if you see a tail go by and and then it introduced characters into my living room and they walked into my living room from a doorway from another room that it just happened to know as a doorway because it mapped it those full-sized characters walked in front of me and sat down on my couch the couch was L-shaped some of them sat in one L and some of them sat on the other part of the L and they set something on my coffee table and it blew my freaking brain out now these particular uh um enhanced reality creatures uh did not look like realistic people in other words they you could see through them a little bit so you could tell that they were sort of shadow people but they were good representations of people now when you take that over to the uh the Hologram World Imagine now the glasses are off imagine doing this same experiment but no glasses it's your own room and maybe you've replaced the light bulbs with this technology I doubt that's possible but imagine it wouldn't be too hard to just put some sensors and lights in any room so your room could produce a photorealistic hologram that could interact with your room it could walk around it could walk around until you see this you don't know what's coming trust me there's some stuff coming that is bigger than anything you could ever imagine and if you're worried about everything that's been invented already been invented nope nope there's stuff coming that hasn't been invented I mean it has been but it hasn't been commercialized so you've got some fun stuff coming some really fun stuff and I'm sure you're already thinking about the applications all right uh and I've said in a related matter I've said this before but it's worth reiterating then no matter who wins in 2020 the presidency I believe Trump will be our last human president the last human president what I mean is that AI will effectively be making our decisions there will still be a person who gets elected but they won't have the flexibility that past presidents had to use their judgment and their Instinct and their hunches and whatever and make decisions that are real leadership decisions rather in the future the algorithms will decide what things we see and then we'll decide that those are the most important things and if those are the most important things and we could tell you know who favors which part of the policy for those most important things the leaders are just going to have to follow it now you say to me Scott Scott Scott the algorithms are not AI the algorithms are just some math and they're made by people it's the people that decide what the algorithm does and then the algorithm does things but it's all people the the algorithm is just a little tool it's no different than scissors and a computer it's not important it's just the tool is that what's happening I I think that's where we differ let me give you an example uh this week I was complaining that uh You.

Tube had had demonetized one of my videos earlier in the week and there was no reason given so I complained about it on Twitter and to You.

Tube's credit they noticed I was complaining on Twitter and they contacted me on Twitter and said which you know which video was it we'll do a manual review so and they said you know it's not obvious what's wrong with it you know they couldn't just look at it and oh it's obvious what you did wrong they said we're going to have to manually review it so I gave them the link they manually reviewed and then this morning they got back to me and they said it's the video is fine it's been remonetized so problem solved right here's the weird part the humans are not aware still what was wrong with it in other words the algorithm flagged it took it you know demonetized it and never revealed its secret for why now when the humans looked at it they had the ability to reverse it but do you think that your video would have been reversed if you were not the dilber guy if you didn't have half a million people following you on Twitter and you hadn't complained in public and you weren't leaving kind of a big footprint would yours have been corrected I'd like to think that You.

Tube is is so you know so on it that it wouldn't matter who complained if they saw a complaint they would deal with it I'd like to think that's true but I'll bet they wouldn't have seen it I don't think you could have reached them I just had this little you know semi famous person advantage that probably helped and if there were no humans who know why I was demonetized If This Were happened to you who would who would have made the decision to demonetize you no human being involved no human being would be involved in the initial decision to demonetize you and no human being would ever explain it to you or fix it later you would be too small now what would happen if the algorithm simply decided you know using its math had decided to focus on some videos they had certain messages and not on others would the people who made the algorithms be aware of it would they know exactly that this video was emphasized over this one apparently not because they couldn't tell why why mine was demonetized there's a little bit too much complexity maybe the people who look at monetization are not the ones who programmed it they wouldn't know what they're looking at anyway and if they asked it would be too complicated conversation so they wouldn't really know if he asked the programmer the programmers would probably and first of all it's not like there's one programmer yeah it would be a team of programmers who probably only know their little hunk their little piece of the algorithm just guessing that it seems like a reasonable guess I don't think anybody would be able to answer the question so the complexity is what gives uh AI free will I I'll just let that hang there for a little while the complexity is what gives AI in this case the algorithms that decide what you see on social media is what gives it a free will what do I mean by that Free Will in human beings is based on the fact that you can't predict what I'll do that's it because I'm complicated my brain is complex so you can't tell based on what I'm doing now it's too complicated you can't you can't get all the variables you can't determine all my inputs you don't know what my cause and effect is you don't know my body chemistry you don't know my history but if you knew that and if you had the Galaxy siiz brain to look at all those inputs and figure out how my brain is wired you could know what I'll do the only thing that gives me the impression of free will is that even I don't know what I'm doing sometimes and you certainly don't know what I'm going to choose so it is only my complexity the fact that you don't know what I'm going to do that gives you the impression I have free will this morning when You.

Tube told me that they they didn't know basically uh they didn't have to say this directly it's obvious in context they don't know why the algorithm did what it did it's too complex today was the day the AI was confirmed it already had it but today was the day that it was confirmed to me the AI already has free will exactly like mine it does what it does by formula and it will do that if it gave it the same inputs it would do the same thing every time if it was exactly the same inputs but it's too complicated we can't predict it it's on its own now it has free will I'll just leave you with that thought all right moving along uh here's an interesting factoid Disney World in Florida is open with obviously you know masks and whatnot whereas Disneyland in California remains closed differences between the how the states are managing this this is one of the best things that's happened in the Corona virus because this is going to be the closest we will get to knowing which of the two methods worked so if the Disney World that opened ends up with a good result meaning very few people get the virus because of it to the extent that they can determine that um that's going to tell us something and if they cause massive infections because they opened in Disney World in Florida well then California was the smart one I think we're going to find out something pretty useful because it's pretty it's sort of unusual that you would have such a Apples to Apples comparison between states so good to know uh you know if you said to yourself I think they should both open up you know you could make that argument and I think Disney is making that argument they think they should open up but you should also be a little bit happy that you got a good comparison thing here we're going to know something about Disney World that's going to be really really useful I think and I'm I'm I'm guessing that we'll be able to track that somehow um don't you know that data is important has anybody told you that we should make decisions based on data has anybody mentioned that lately in this election s uh this election cycle it's all you hear we must use the data we must listen to The Experts follow the data follow the data that's what all the dumb people say following the data would be terrific idea if you had data following the data would be a terrific idea if you had the data and it was reliable and it was right under those conditions and you knew what to do with it you know you knew how to act based on that data but that's a lot of ifs isn't it here's a good example what is the only data about the Corona virus that that you would need uh need to know to really understand where we are and where we're going what is the one bit of data you would need you might say to yourself a death rate nope nope that's what I would have said a few weeks ago I would have said as long as you know the death rate that's pretty much what you need to know in terms of you know where we're having um somebody else somebody smarter would say you need to know the hospital hospitalization rate because first of all the hospitalization rate can to somewhat some degree you will predict the death rate but also you need to know your hospital capacity you don't want to go over it and you you also get your people who have long-term problems and they would be picked up in the hospitalization wouldn't be picked up in the death rate so that's all you need right somebody says recovery rate nope you don't need the recovery rate you don't need the hospitalization rate you don't need the death rate it would be good to have and and they have value so I'm not saying you shouldn't know them I'm saying that the most important data which we could get it's it's achievable we could collect it we haven't and it goes like this how many people are dying who are getting the right meds and the right treatment right because that's all that matters if we're if we're throwing people in who are having problems today with the average of how they were doing before we had good Therapeutics back in the day when we would stick people on ventilators and the ventilator itself would kill them that I think a lot of the deaths were from ventilator uh misuse nobody's fault because nobody knew what to do in the early days certainly definitely not any kind of medical malpractice or anything I'm not suggesting that but we didn't know so can you tell me that you know or that anybody has collected the only data that matters you went into the hospital and you got your REM Des air let's say you know you were at that stage or you got your regeneron or you got your vitamin D you got your zinc and maybe your baby aspirin whatever else maybe some of ziyin and that's the only data I want to know now on top of that I also need to know availability of those Mets so if the regeneron needs let's say two weeks or three months or whatever it is to ramp up so everybody can have it in this country I need to know that because that's telling me you know when when we can get to a better place same with the r Desir so I would want to know how many people are dying with the right treatment and let's call it the Trump protocol okay just to keep it simple the same stuff Trump got you have to assume is the good stuff right so plus r dese i don't think he got that but he didn't need it so if we don't know that do you know anything seriously do you know anything if you don't know that it's the only number I think matters to how well we're doing doing when are we're going to get out of this how bad is it do we open up do we not open up all of our decisions are based on this one thing how do we do today like today October 13th how would you do today if you went into the hospital and you got the full Trump protocol right because it's nowhere near the death rate of March and I feel like we're making decisions based on March you know March through October death rates which would be insane so um and somebody says the deaths are are grossly inflated but I would say that anybody who got the Trump protocol would be certainly confirmed to be somebody who's got a Corona virus problem you I'm pretty sure by the time you get the full protocol they know that the Corona virus is the thing that's going to kill you or not you know so um there is definitely a question about how the the deaths are counted but I think we could count the uh if you looked at the excess uh mortality you'd be okay so if you knew excess M mortality had gone down to normal because people who got the treatments their death rate had gone down to a trivial number um that would be a lot to know all right so you can love having data but if you collect the wrong data doesn't matter if you know as I mentioned earlier if you're the CDC and you collect the data that 85% of the people getting the virus are wearing a mask how did that help you in fact it probably hurt you because people would misinterpret the data now they might misinterpret it in a way that actually helps you if it made them we them where the no in that case I think they would wear the mask less so people would misinterpret it and do the wrong thing data is very overrated data is usually wrong that that's just a fact uh all data is usually wrong and wrong enough that it would change how you deal with it um somebody says I'm laughing at your blind loyalty to your cult leader um you must be new here the whoever is laughing at my blind loyalty to my cult leader you must be brand new and you must have joined later in this very Periscope because the entire first part of the Periscope was criticizing Trump for health care not being you know packaged into a good plan did you miss that part did you did you miss the part where I said it would take me 10 day 10 minutes to get over him losing if he lost why is it about all of you you Democrats who can't see anything clearly if if you could see one thing clearly it's that I'm not a slave to uh Dogma if you don't get that you have missed the most essential part of me that I could change my mind in a heartbeat on anything it's it's one of my uh it's one of my advantages in fact it's the only reason anybody's watching me if if all I did was get on here and do a blind obedience uh everything Trump does is terrific if that's all I did I don't think people would be too interested in coming back because I would just be another celebrity with a stupid opinion it's only because I do have the facility to go in either direction that makes me worth watching for my critic who I'm talking to right now uh you might also not know that I consider myself left of burning at least on the social stuff now I don't think that Bernie is good at math so he doesn't have to pay for the things he wants and that's a problem I'm not going to be impractical I like his goals have everybody you know have a good education and uh you know want everybody to to be free want to you know Etc but uh but he needs to be able to figure out how to do it it's got to be practical all right all right that is all for today and I will talk to you tomorrow it's so it's so awkward when I try to hit that little X to end this and I can't hit it with my thumb all right Periscope is turned off we're on H You.

Tube only now live streaming uh thoughts on Kanye and Joe Rogan and his presidential ad I didn't see that does Kanye have a an ad There's an actual Kanye ad um data are facts statistics are interpretation not true data are alleged facts if data were facts we'd probably be in a lot better shape but usually data is out of context and it's just wrong is local still thing oh yeah let me give you an update on locals so locals.com is a platform um full disclosure I have a small investment in it as well and that's where I do um everything that you that I don't do in public I do there so there's a whole bunch of other content on uh including micro lessons on success and being more being more effective as well as some content that's a little too edgy to be on Twitter or to be on uh You.

Tube so uh locals is not only working but uh it's it's working embarrassingly well the the number of people who were willing to pay a subscription to see extra content actually uh is humbling because way more demand than I could have imagined and so far they seem happy the retention is excellent people are adding every uh every uh week so yeah locals.com you go there and could follow people like me people like Greg Gutfeld um I think Don Jr's there bunch of other people are going over and what you'll see there is uh stuff you can't see at other places um somebody says you need a coupon code no you don't need a coupon code um the the creators can create a coupon to give you a discount but you don't need that you can just go there and sign up um and it's working great by the way and the community over there is just people who want to be you know part of my community so I have basically no trolls imagine a social media platform that because it's subscription it basically eliminates all of the trolls every bit of content and other people can other people post things as well so I look at other people's content and it's exactly what I want to see and it's because somebody who followed me me kind of knows what I would like to see and knows what other people who follow me would like to see and so it's this whole environment where I only see stuff that's interesting and I wanted to see it it's the weirdest thing and they're no trolls and and people pay a subscription fee to be there somebody says what is the $7 subscription fee for it is for Content that you won't see anywhere else but on top of that uh there's and I didn't see this coming exactly there's a little bit of a patreon element to it patreon allows you just to um essentially donate to creators that you would like to incentivize to do more and so I think a lot of people just join locals because they're supporting my voice uh and then they also give some extra content but uh the if you like robots read news my edgier uh comic that I only do on the web um some of those I will tweet I'll put on to Twitter so you just so it's a acts as an advertisement for locals but uh most of the really naughty ones I just keep on locals if it's if it's too edgy I just keep it there all right that's all for now and I will talk to you oh just to give you one more example of what is on locals yesterday I did a detailed um tour of my office you know down to the down to the real details which some people would find interesting but others would not and I'll talk to you tomorrow

hey come on in here everybody it's time

it's time for coffee with Scott

Adams best part of the day I think so

yeah I think so there was a little bit

of question whether it was the best part

of the day or really just top two top

three but I think I think we have our

answer day after day best part of the

day and all you need

to hold on let me put on my microphone

this will be

better something tells me you weren't

hearing me as well as you should

have how about now yeah better better

isn't it yeah you thought this couldn't

get better and it just

did surprise yeah and all you need to do

all you need to do to take this to the

next

level and see if you can find yourself a

cuper Mugger a glass of tanker chel or

sign a cantey juger flask a vessel of

any kind fill it with your favorite

liquid I like coffee and join me now for

the unparallel pleasure of the dopamine

hit of the day the thing that makes

everything better and I'm going to ask

you to savor it yeah savor it

Go o yeah yeah savor it savor it okay

good well so today later today I will be

appearing on

MSNBC you're not going to want to miss

that I don't know what kind of questions

they're going to ask me I'll be on Ary

Mur show at uh the they give a start

time that's usually well in front of the

time I'm actually on camera but

uh 6:00 p.m. eastern time 300 p.m. at

California time and uh they'll be

talking to me so we'll see how that

goes you know I think I told you I I uh

started saying no to all uh interview

requests recently so I don't have I

don't think I have anything else on my

calendar uh but when this one came in I

thought to myself well this one's going

to be too much fun I'm going to have to

take this

one

um it has been brought to my attention

that there's a very interesting piece of

content on uh on HBO called The

Vow it's a multiart uh documentary about

a cult it's called it's called a cult

called uh

anx or something NX I VM I don't know

how you pronounce it next NEX

of but uh I started watching it and I

think I'm halfway through but uh I can

already tell you you've got to watch

this thing so I will be talking about it

in the context of persuasion because the

cult has some interesting techniques and

it is really good documentary because

the access they have where actually

things are on film or on audio it's

pretty remarkable and if you really want

to

understand uh how

influenceable or how persuadable people

are or what they are willing to believe

you got to watch this thing because if

you think people are gullible or people

can be uh fooled you you haven't seen

anything and I'll talk about the

technique after I give you time to watch

it so allegedly today there's a big

announcement from Apple about their 5G

phone and most of you are saying to

yourself well that's nice a 5G phone

it'll be a little bit faster than a 4G

phone aren't we glad that each of our

phones are a little bit better than the

last one but I think you'd be missing

the big story on this one if you didn't

notice stocks were uh solidly up

yesterday and at least part of the

reason is probably apple and part of the

reason is when 5G becomes common now

you've got you've got a little bit of a

pipeline problem uh or a capacity

problem so I don't know if your 5G phone

is going to give you 5G speed right away

every place you would use it but

probably you know it'll probably start

out pretty good and here's the thing you

need to know about

speed speed doesn't just help you do

what you were going to do anyway but

make it fast faster this kind of speed

will change what you do you'll be able

to do things that you couldn't do before

uh I don't know if that means Holograms

or 3D or virtual reality worlds probably

all of that uh I don't know if it means

um just completely changing how you

commute we almost can't see the ways

this see the ways this will change

things let me give you my example

if you have a uh uh let's say a car that

can go 5 miles an

hour you can use it to Tool around

locally but you're not going to take it

very far but if you have a car that can

go 100 miles an hour and it can you know

dry for hours and hours then it's a

whole different application it's not

something you use around town it's

something you can take a long trip with

so this 5G stuff is way bigger than you

think it is and it'll take a while for

all the all the reasons that that's true

to seep into your Consciousness this is

gigantic um so I tried watching the

Supreme Court nominee hearings for

ACB uh Amy con Barrett

and I thought the whole thing was so

worthless I couldn't really watch it is

anybody trying to watch that thing I

feel sorry for the uh the News Network

that are covering it CU they kind of

have to cover it it's big news but

there's literally nothing happening

because apparently the Democrats don't

want to go too hard at uh the nominee

because it might

backfire but on the other hand they have

to act like they're putting up a fight

or they have to use their time to

complain about the president or or

Obamacare so it turned into nothing but

a

theater it we took this important

government

process and just turned it into you know

Kabuki theater or something it doesn't

have any

functional purpose at all and and yet

we're going to still do it that's the

weird thing about people I suppose as

the dilber cartoonist I'm glad it

happens but people will do things they

know don't make sense just because of

inertia or the way things are so that's

what we're saying I I would say that's

worth about zero minutes of your time to

watch those hearings because you know

where that's going to go um are you

disappointed with the Republican uh and

Trump plans on healthc

care I feel as if Trump has a far better

um at least opportunity to sell his

health care preferred you know method if

he would package it up better but the

way it's being framed right now is that

there's this thing called the ACA or

Obamacare and that Trump wants to kill

it and that's the frame he wants to kill

it and he doesn't have anything that has

a name on it that's sort of packaged as

it's replacement so if you're a senior

citizen or you're just somebody who

thinks you're at risk of losing your

health care what are you going to think

about this situation you're going to say

to yourself uh I kind of know what

Obamacare is cuz I think I have it and

the Republicans are offering freaking

nothing now that's not true they are

actually offering a bunch of stuff but

they haven't packaged it in any way so

when you think about it you don't think

of it as anything you say well I'm glad

that you know maybe there's something

about drug prices going down and you

know I'm happy that maybe the Mandate

won't be there and I might be happy

about you know Tella tella Health being

you know allowed over State boundaries

Etc so if you thought about it there'd

be a whole bunch of individual things

that you liked but they don't feel like

a replacement for ObamaCare it just

feels like you're losing something and

have I told you before that the threat

of losing something always feels more

oppressive than the opportunity to get

something so the way human psychology

works is that we're way more concerned

about losing something we already have

than we are excited about getting a new

thing and that's very important to know

about people so right now what uh what

the uh Trump Administration is offering

is

less how would you have how would you

like to have less stuff now would

they're not that is not an accurate

description of what they're offering but

it feels like it and they've sort of

allowed that frame to to take form that

there is this Health Care thing yeah

it's not perfect but even that's going

to go away that doesn't describe what

would happen but that's the frame that

has taken

form and I think the Republicans have to

answer for that I would go so far as to

say that if if uh if Trump loses and

let's say the Republicans lose the

Senate as well and if it turns out that

the reason that that happened was people

were concerned about health care and

they didn't think the Republicans had

enough of a plan I would say they earned

the loss I would say the Republicans

deserve to lose under those conditions

now I don't want that I don't want that

to happen I would hope that they would

do a little better job in the next next

few weeks of saying what they would do

versus the ACA but at the moment

they have framed it in a way they

deserve to lose honestly because healthc

care is uh kind of what's left now if

they did lose because of that the irony

would be that Trump would have succeeded

so well that he succeeded him himself

out of a job meaning that the only thing

left to talk about was the thing he

didn't make enough of a you know an

impact on because we wouldn't be talking

about Isis cuz he took care of it we're

not going to be talking about the NAFTA

cuz he renegotiated it we're not going

to be talking about North Korea because

they seem to be sort of not a problem at

the moment we're not going to be talking

about uh renegotiating with China

because that will be already underway

we're not going to be talking so much

about the you know even the Border

because the Border looks like it became

somewhat less of a problem because

immigration slowed down I believe

because of Corona virus so the so the

president by doing a good job has

reduced the number of topics we care

about and even the economy is recovering

well people would say well I think it's

on the right path that probably do okay

under a different Administration so he

really has narrowed the targets down to

the one thing that he's not strong on

which is Healthcare he kind of needs to

fix that and pretty quickly I would

think um and as I say he there's plenty

to talk about and here's what here's

what I think the Republicans have done

wrong from the start and I've said this

the Democrats have a better goal but the

Republicans have a better system now I

favor systems over goals so therefore I

favor the Republican approach but they

haven't uh but they haven't framed it

right they haven't packaged it right and

here's how I would package it I would

accept the democrat's goal and I would

say yeah even as a republican it is our

absolute goal that everybody will have

health care Affordable Health Care we'll

just get there in a different way and

what we would hope is that we would take

it from whatever it is now I don't know

12% 8 % what how many people don't have

health care at the moment and I would

say okay it's it's at this number

whatever it is around 10% uh by the end

of my fourth year I would like that to

get that down to

2% if you heard something like that you

might say to yourself okay they got a

system they've got a goal that I agree

with and Bernie's got you know if you

look at sort of the Bernie type plans

that Biden might do or come Cala Harris

might do it looks more like it's harder

to get there it's it's like they don't

have a plan to get there that makes

sense math wise so I think so I think

that's where the Republicans could go

um I've suggested on Twitter that Trump

should run an ad saying that he's the uh

only candidate for president who's

immune to the Corona virus now of course

there is a debate as to whether uh as to

whether Trump has any immunity or if he

has

immunity is it short term some say four

months some say longer and I don't know

that it matters because it would be so

hilarious if he started tweeting that

he's the only candidate who is immune to

the Corona virus that the Press would go

nuts because they'd be no no that is not

scientifically valid and

the uh

uh wish you could shop for doctors by

procedure yeah that's a good comment

um anyway so it would be funny if he did

that I don't think he will uh a troll

came after me today on Twitter and said

he can't wait to see how unhappy I am

and you know what will I do if Trump

were to lose the election and and I

replied back to the effect I don't think

you know me very well I would get over

that in about 10

minutes I don't have a I don't have a

long recovery time from Bad News you

know some some bad news you have to work

on you know causes you work to get out

of the hole you ended up in but I always

spend a lot of time Fring about the past

and the past happens immediately right

you know if it turned out and I'm still

predicting that Trump will win but if it

turned out that he didn't I'm pretty

sure I would get over that in about 10

minutes that's just me you might have a

different

experience um Biden apparently has

revealed a little bit about his court

packing ways and by the way is it just

me or does Court packing sound vaguely

like an

insult you freaking Court

Packer doesn't it just have the right

consonant and S sounds to sound like an

insult you freaking Court Packer you

damn Court Packer you well it sounds

like an

insult and and here's what Biden said uh

to give us another hint what he's

thinking about he said quote I'm not a

fan of Court packing but I don't want to

get off on that whole issue Biden told

CNN CNN affiliate I want to keep focused

the president the president would love

nothing better than to fight about

whether or not I would in fact pack the

court or not pack the

court is is he the dumbest guy you've

ever met in your life now I think he

might have been smart at one point in

his

life uh yeah no fair with the uh

comments I'm saying there let's let's

let's uh let's not make it uh let's not

make it gay jokes okay the court Packer

by by itself sounds like an insult you

don't have to bring it into another

domain

um so here he is saying he's not a fan

of Court

packing he's very cleverly or stupidly I

haven't decided which it might actually

be brilliant because we might have

reached a point where people are so

irrational about everything that Biden

can actually just say something that he

knows will be taken two different ways

by two different groups so he can say

something that will make Republicans

sound comfortable because he says I'm

not a fan of Court packing so if you're

a republican you hear that say not a fan

of Court

packing okay okay he's obviously not a

guy who's going to do core packing so I

guess I feel comfortable about that so

the Republicans have something they can

you know hold on to Meanwhile the the

progressives who would like some cor

packing they listen to the second part

of it he goes you I just don't want to

get off on that whole issue so uh uh I

don't want him to fight about whether I

would or would not pack the court so

he's still leaving it open leaving it

open but here's the real question why

are you asking Joe Biden about coure

packing the only one that matters yeah

I'm seeing in the comments your way

ahead of me does it does Camala Harris

like Court packing because something

like greater than half of Voters

including the people voting for who

would vote for Biden even most of them

believe he won't make it four

years so you're not really talking about

Biden's opinion you're talking about

Biden's opinion for a

while plus kamala's kamla's opinion for

whatever time is remaining or even the

second term if if she were the one to

run for the term after that

so uh shouldn't we be really pushing on

that you know I think we've heard

everything we need to from Joe Biden but

we kind of need to hear from the

VP nominee and if we don't hear from

that you have to assume that she's in

favor of it or at least that there's

some chance she's in favor of

it uh which

uh which should change people

Minds all right there's a CDC study uh

this will be a good indication of how

useless data is CDC studies shows that

85% of covid cases were people who often

or always wear masks so what what's that

tell you number one is from the CDC so

you can trust that right no not anymore

unfortunately we we've had a bad

experience with experts recently

so there's there's no such thing as a a

credible source of data anymore there

there are still organizations that are

sort of credible but not when they give

you data it doesn't matter who it is

anybody giving you data in 2020 is

probably lying to you or

incorrect uh and when I say probably I

mean nine and a 10

times so would you conclude that if 85%

% of people who get

Co wore their masks what's the obvious

implication all right draw a conclusion

85% of them wore masks and got it anyway

therefore go

therefore masks don't work right it's

good evidence it comes from the

CDC so that's reliable right and 85% of

the people with masks got it anyway so I

guess those masks don't work is that

what you have

concluded well if you're bad at

analyzing data you concluded that if

you're good at analyzing data you might

say something like uh Julia Pollock

tweeted who is an economist what if I

told you about

economists economists are trained at

understanding whether the right things

have been compared and knowing and

knowing whether a rational comparison

has been made and she points out the

following two problems number one um

it's people who claim to have worn

masks people lie people lie about how

often they wear masks especially if

they're being asked by somebody you know

would judge you if a stranger calls you

and says do you wear your mask often

even people who don't wear masks often

or don't think they wear them that often

are going to be tempted to to say oh

yeah yeah I totally wear my mask pretty

much all the time even if they don't

that's one problem I think that's the

smaller one and then the other problem

is that that they're not accounting for

the differences in risk and

exposure

exactly who wears a mask in the first

place somebody who needs

to do do people get Corona virus if

there are people who are not around any

virus the people who don't wear masks

are far more likely to be the people who

who rightly uh judge that they're not at

much risk because they're maybe you know

not spending time around crowds maybe

they live in a town that has almost or

no Corona virus risk you know maybe

they're maybe they're young you know so

they're not bothering but um correlation

on this is probably backwards

uh it's probably backwards now you can't

tell but you have to allow this great

possibility that the reason people wear

masks in certain situations and they're

less likely to wear masks in other is

because they know where the virus is at

least statistically and so they wear the

masks if they're in a place where

there's a lot of virus now where are you

likely to get a virus probably in a

place with a lot of viruses

uh I I used to joke where I lived a few

a few homes ago whenever I looked

outside and I saw somebody going for a

run they would almost always be

overweight and I would say to myself

that's weird does running make you fat

because all the people I see running

look like they're trying to lose weight

so running must make you

fat and then I of and of course that's a

joke the correlation is back Wards the

people who thought they needed to lose a

few pounds went

running so I I think that might be

what's happening with this mask thing is

that uh it's it's useless data in any

case

um California has an interesting

situation apparently some GOP entity has

put up a ballot collection boxes of

their

own you didn't see that coming did you

so there are these officiall looking

ballot collection boxes that are not

trying to look like government entities

so they're not pretending they're the

post office it's just it's obviously a

private GOP thing and you can just throw

your uh throw your ballot in there do

you trust that would you trust a private

ballot collection box that's not a

government

mailbox if you trust that you're really

gullible now I'm not going to say that

the people who put them up there have

bad intentions don't know I'm just

saying that I wouldn't put my ballot in

a private ballot collection

box and if you're if you're dumb enough

to do that you shouldn't be

[Laughter]

voting you're you're not smart enough to

vote if you put your if you put your Val

you know Bob's collection

box you're saying to yourself

well it looks like they spelled all the

words right on the collection box looks

good enough to

me what could go

wrong and and so the government of

California has declared that these

things are illegal but here's the funny

part how can it be illegal to have a box

with some words on

it can't it couldn't possibly be illegal

because it's not pretending to do

anything to be anything other than what

it is it would certainly be illegal if

it were pretending to be the US Postal

Service right that would be

illegal it would be illegal if they were

you know claiming to be something they

weren't but it's claiming to be exactly

what it is a convenient way

to have your ballot uh get picked up now

I certainly wouldn't trust

it but how is it

illegal let me ask you this if I took a

box you know just a box I could carry

and I knocked on your door and I said

hey you know I'm I'm picking up some

ballots and I can save you a trip to the

mailbox if you like you can throw your

ballot in my box that's in my hand and

I'll carry it over to the mailbox for

you I'll carry it to the post office

would that be illegal well it depends on

your state right if you live in a state

where uh ballot harvesting is illegal

yes doesn't matter if you have a

separate box doesn't matter if you knock

on the door if your state says you can't

bring somebody else's ballots in it's

illegal but in California apparently

that's not illegal it's not illegal to

knock on the door and say can I take

your ballot so the state of California

is trying to claim that these little

boxes that do the same thing is knocking

on the door it's just a little bit more

efficient why knock on the door if

you're not ready you know wait till

you're ready you just put it in the box

and the the thing that's hilarious about

this is that I'm pretty sure democr

Democrats thought they had the advantage

with this ballot harvesting stuff and

then the Republicans do what Republicans

do what is it the Republicans do that's

better than what uh Democrats do

consistently they come up with better

systems if you're going to if you're

going to build something or manage

something call a republican Republicans

are pretty good on systems they're

pretty good at setting up a you know a

mechanism you know figuring out how to

make something work that's what they do

right it's what they do

Democrats their system looks a little

bit like a chop or Chaz right looks a

little bit more chaotic so you don't

want to trust the Democrats to set up a

system uh so they set up they set up

this thing and the very first thing that

happens is the the Republicans in

California come up with a superior

system and they get these boxes built

and distributed all over and now they

have now the government's going to have

to fight with what it means to be a to

to be harvesting ballots and as far as I

know they're going to have a hard time

declaring these things illegal because I

don't think there's any law that says

you can't have an accurately labeled box

sitting in on your on your lawn if it's

accurately labeled it's

accurate um so anyway that's

hilarious on a completely different

topic uh I follow a Twitter account by

the name of somebody named Brian Rome r

o m m l e if you want to look for it

definitely worth following he has lots

of uh new technologies and you know

what's what's coming next kind of tweets

and one of them just just will blow your

head off apparently now our hologram

technology is so good

that there's this device from let's see

called uh uh Port L hologram so you can

follow them at at Port p o TL hologram

all one word port L hologram and you can

see that they have this thing that's uh

phone booth sized in which inside the

little phone booth sized hologram

generator there is a full-sized human

being who looks exactly like somebody

you're standing in front of and and you

know they're walking and talking and

they they could be a deep fake or that

or it could be a projection of somebody

who's standing somewhere else and

they're just being projected as a

hologram

and uh it looks pretty amazing looks

pretty amazing somebody says you just

looked and it looks terrible you you

must be looking at something different

than what I'm looking at but it is it

will be difficult to explain how

powerful this is and let me tell you a

little story from my experience to give

you a

sense uh yeah my cat boo is doing a walk

by I told you this a while ago um

Microsoft has uh a version of their uh

uh what do you call enhanced reality

where it it places objects in the room

with you but you can't see them unless

you're wearing the special goggles now

if you're wearing the special goggles

you know you have a a cool experience

and here's the experience I had when I

tried them out in my home I saw a demo

version before they were available I put

on the on the goggles in my own home

this is the key part my own

home and I put them on and I turned on a

u a I think it was a a

mystery game so it was like a murder

mystery game where there would be

characters that would interact in your

space and there would be this murder

mystery and you'd have to figure it out

I guess and I put the glasses on and I

see it map the room it it puts a a layer

of uh like wireframe you could see the

wireframe going over your furniture and

stuff in your room and you think whoa

that's cool it just mapped my whole room

but here's the freaky part it didn't

just map the space in your room it knew

what the things were it knew what a

chair was

was uh my cat's going to do another

walkr if you see a tail go by and and

then it introduced characters into my

living room and they walked into my

living room from a doorway from another

room that it just happened to know as a

doorway because it mapped it those

full-sized characters walked in front of

me and sat down on my couch the couch

was L-shaped some of them sat in one L

and some of them sat on the other part

of the L and they set something on my

coffee table and it blew my freaking

brain

out now these particular uh um enhanced

reality creatures uh did not look like

realistic people in other words they you

could see through them a little bit so

you could tell that they were sort of

shadow people but they were good

representations of people now when you

take that over to the uh the Hologram

World Imagine now the glasses are off

imagine doing this same experiment but

no glasses it's your own room and maybe

you've replaced the light bulbs with

this technology I doubt that's possible

but imagine it wouldn't be too hard to

just put some sensors and lights in any

room so your room could produce a

photorealistic hologram that could

interact with your room it could walk

around it could walk around until you

see this you don't know what's coming

trust me there's some stuff coming that

is bigger than anything you could ever

imagine and if you're worried about

everything that's been invented already

been invented

nope nope there's stuff coming that

hasn't been invented I mean it has been

but it hasn't been commercialized so

you've got some fun stuff coming some

really fun stuff and I'm sure you're

already thinking about the

applications all right uh and I've said

in a related matter I've said this

before but it's worth

reiterating then no matter who wins in

2020 the

presidency I believe Trump will be our

last human

president the last human president what

I mean is that AI will effectively be

making our decisions there will still be

a person who gets elected but they won't

have the flexibility that past

presidents had to use their judgment and

their Instinct and their hunches and

whatever and make decisions that are

real leadership decisions rather in the

future the algorithms will decide what

things we see and then we'll decide that

those are the most important things and

if those are the most important things

and we could tell you know who favors

which part of the policy for those most

important things

the leaders are just going to have to

follow it now you say to me Scott Scott

Scott the algorithms are not AI the

algorithms are just some math and

they're made by people it's the people

that decide what the algorithm does and

then the algorithm does things but it's

all people the the algorithm is just a

little tool it's no different than

scissors and a computer it's not

important it's just the

tool is that what's happening

I I think that's where we differ let me

give you an example uh this week I was

complaining that uh YouTube had had

demonetized one of my videos earlier in

the week and there was no reason given

so I complained about it on Twitter and

to YouTube's credit they noticed I was

complaining on Twitter and they

contacted me on Twitter and said which

you know which video was it we'll do a

manual review so

and they said you know it's not obvious

what's wrong with it you know they

couldn't just look at it and oh it's

obvious what you did wrong they said

we're going to have to manually review

it so I gave them the link they manually

reviewed and then this morning they got

back to me and they said it's the video

is fine it's been

remonetized so problem solved right

here's the weird

part the humans are not aware still what

was wrong with it in other words the

algorithm flagged it took it you know

demonetized it and never revealed its

secret for why now when the humans

looked at it they had the ability to

reverse it but do you think that your

video would have been reversed if you

were not the dilber guy if you didn't

have half a million people following you

on Twitter and you hadn't complained in

public and you weren't leaving kind of a

big footprint would yours have been

corrected I'd like to think that YouTube

is is so you know so on it that it

wouldn't matter who complained if they

saw a complaint they would deal with it

I'd like to think that's true but I'll

bet they wouldn't have seen it I don't

think you could have reached them I just

had this little you know semi famous

person advantage that probably helped

and if there were no humans who know why

I was

demonetized If This Were happened to you

who would who would have made the

decision to demonetize you no human

being involved no human being would be

involved in the initial decision to

demonetize you and no human being would

ever explain it to you or fix it later

you would be too small now what would

happen if the algorithm simply decided

you know using its math had decided to

focus on some videos they had certain

messages and not on others would the

people who made the algorithms be aware

of it would they know exactly that this

video was emphasized over this one

apparently not because they couldn't

tell why why mine was demonetized

there's a little bit too much complexity

maybe the people who look at

monetization are not the ones who

programmed it they wouldn't know what

they're looking at anyway and if they

asked it would be too complicated

conversation so they wouldn't really

know if he asked the programmer the

programmers would probably and first of

all it's not like there's one programmer

yeah it would be a team of programmers

who probably only know their little hunk

their little piece of the algorithm just

guessing that it seems like a reasonable

guess I don't think anybody would be

able to answer the question so the

complexity is what gives uh AI free will

I I'll just let that hang there for a

little while the

complexity is what gives AI in this case

the algorithms that decide what you see

on social media is what gives it a free

will what do I mean by that Free Will in

human beings is based on the fact that

you can't predict what I'll do that's it

because I'm complicated my brain is

complex so you can't tell based on what

I'm doing now it's too complicated you

can't you can't get all the variables

you can't determine all my inputs you

don't know what my cause and effect is

you don't know my body chemistry you

don't know my history but if you knew

that and if you had the Galaxy siiz

brain to look at all those inputs and

figure out how my brain is wired you

could know what I'll do the only thing

that gives me the impression of free

will is that even I don't know what I'm

doing sometimes

and you certainly don't know what I'm

going to choose so it is only my

complexity the fact that you don't know

what I'm going to do that gives you the

impression I have free

will this morning when YouTube told me

that they they didn't know basically uh

they didn't have to say this directly

it's obvious in context they don't know

why the algorithm did what it did it's

too

complex today was the day

the

AI was

confirmed it already had it but today

was the day that it was confirmed to me

the AI already has free

will exactly like mine it does what it

does by formula and it will do that if

it gave it the same inputs it would do

the same thing every time if it was

exactly the same inputs but it's too

complicated we can't predict it it's on

its own now it has free

will I'll just leave you with that

thought all right moving along uh here's

an interesting factoid Disney World in

Florida is open with obviously you know

masks and whatnot whereas Disneyland in

California remains closed differences

between the how the states are managing

this this is one of the best things

that's happened in the Corona virus

because this is going to be the closest

we will get

to knowing which of the two methods

worked so if the Disney World that

opened ends up with a good result

meaning very few people get the virus

because of it to the extent that they

can determine that um that's going to

tell us something and if they cause

massive infections because they opened

in Disney World in Florida well then

California was the smart one I think

we're going to find out something pretty

useful because it's pretty it's sort of

unusual that you would have such a

Apples to Apples comparison between

states so good to know uh you know if

you said to yourself I think they should

both open up you know you could make

that argument and I think Disney is

making that argument they think they

should open up but you should also be a

little bit happy that you got a good

comparison thing here we're going to

know something about Disney World that's

going to be really really useful I think

and I'm I'm I'm guessing that we'll be

able to track that

somehow um don't you know that data is

important has anybody told you that we

should make decisions based on data has

anybody mentioned that lately in this

election s uh this election cycle it's

all you hear we must use the data we

must listen to The Experts follow the

data follow the data that's what all the

dumb people say following the data would

be terrific idea if you had data

following the data would be a terrific

idea if you had the data and it was

reliable and it was right under those

conditions and you knew what to do with

it you know you knew how to act based on

that data but that's a lot of ifs isn't

it here's a good example what is the

only data about the Corona virus that

that you would need uh need to know to

really understand where we are and where

we're going what is the one bit of data

you would

need you might say to yourself a death

rate nope nope that's what I would have

said a few weeks ago I would have said

as long as you know the death rate

that's pretty much what you need to know

in terms of you know where we're having

um somebody else somebody smarter would

say you need to know the hospital

hospitalization rate because first of

all the hospitalization rate can to

somewhat some degree you will predict

the death rate but also you need to know

your hospital capacity you don't want to

go over it and you you also get your

people who have long-term problems and

they would be picked up in the

hospitalization wouldn't be picked up in

the death rate so that's all you need

right somebody says recovery rate nope

you don't need the recovery rate you

don't need the hospitalization rate you

don't need the death rate it would be

good to have and and they have value so

I'm not saying you shouldn't know them

I'm saying that the most important data

which we could get it's it's achievable

we could collect it we haven't and it

goes like this how many people are dying

who are getting the right meds and the

right

treatment right because that's all that

matters if we're if we're throwing

people in who are having problems today

with the average of how they were doing

before we had good Therapeutics back in

the day when we would stick people on

ventilators and the ventilator itself

would kill them that I think a lot of

the deaths were from ventilator uh

misuse nobody's fault because nobody

knew what to do in the early days

certainly definitely not any kind of

medical malpractice or anything I'm not

suggesting that but we didn't know so

can you tell me that you know or that

anybody has collected the only data that

matters you went into the hospital and

you got your REM Des

air let's say you know you were at that

stage or you got your regeneron or you

got your vitamin D you got your zinc and

maybe your baby aspirin whatever else

maybe some of

ziyin and

that's the only data I want to know now

on top of that I also need to know

availability of those Mets so if the

regeneron needs let's say two weeks or

three months or whatever it is to ramp

up so everybody can have it in this

country I need to know that because

that's telling me you know when when we

can get to a better place same with the

r Desir so I would want to know how many

people are dying with the right

treatment and let's call it the Trump

protocol okay just to keep it simple the

same stuff Trump got you have to assume

is the good stuff right so plus r dese i

don't think he got that but he didn't

need

it so if we don't know that do you know

anything seriously do you know anything

if you don't know that it's the only

number I think matters to how well we're

doing doing when are we're going to get

out of this how bad is it do we open up

do we not open up all of our decisions

are based on this one thing how do we do

today like today October 13th how would

you do today if you went into the

hospital and you got the full Trump

protocol right because it's nowhere near

the death rate of March and I feel like

we're making decisions based on March

you know March through October death

rates which would be insane

so um and somebody says the deaths are

are grossly

inflated but I would say that anybody

who got the Trump protocol would be

certainly confirmed to be somebody who's

got a Corona virus problem you I'm

pretty sure by the time you get the full

protocol they know that the Corona virus

is the thing that's going to kill you or

not you know so um there is definitely a

question about how the the deaths are

counted but I think we could count the

uh if you looked at the excess uh

mortality you'd be okay so if you knew

excess M mortality had gone down to

normal because people who got the

treatments their death rate had gone

down to a trivial

number um that would be a lot to know

all right so you can love having data

but if you collect the wrong data

doesn't matter if you know as I

mentioned earlier if you're the CDC and

you collect the data that 85% of the

people getting the virus are wearing a

mask how did that help you in fact it

probably hurt you because people would

misinterpret the data now they might

misinterpret it in a way that actually

helps you if it made them we them where

the no in that case I think they would

wear the mask less so people would

misinterpret it and do the wrong thing

data is very

overrated data is usually

wrong that that's just a fact uh all

data is usually wrong and wrong

enough that it would change how you deal

with it um somebody says I'm laughing at

your blind

loyalty to your cult

leader um you must be new here the

whoever is laughing at my blind loyalty

to my cult leader you must be brand new

and you must have joined later in this

very Periscope because the entire first

part of the Periscope was criticizing

Trump for health care not being you know

packaged into a good plan did you miss

that part did you did you miss the part

where I said it would take me 10 day 10

minutes to get over him losing if he

lost why is it about all of you you

Democrats who can't see anything

clearly if if you could see one thing

clearly it's that I'm not a slave to uh

Dogma if you don't get that you have

missed the most essential part of me

that I could change my mind in a

heartbeat on anything it's it's one of

my uh it's one of my advantages in fact

it's the only reason anybody's watching

me if if all I did was get on here and

do a blind obedience uh everything Trump

does is terrific if that's all I did I

don't think people would be too

interested in coming back because I

would just be another celebrity with a

stupid opinion it's only because I do

have the

facility to go in either

direction that makes me worth watching

for my critic who I'm talking to right

now uh you might also not know that I

consider myself left of burning

at least on the social stuff now I don't

think that Bernie is good at math so he

doesn't have to pay for the things he

wants and that's a problem I'm not going

to be

impractical I like his goals have

everybody you know have a good education

and uh you know want everybody to to be

free want to you know Etc but

uh but he needs to be able to figure out

how to do it it's got to be practical

all right all right that is all for

today and I will talk to you

tomorrow it's so it's so awkward when I

try to hit that little X to end this and

I can't hit it with my

thumb all right Periscope is turned off

we're on H YouTube only now live

streaming uh thoughts on Kanye and Joe

Rogan and his presidential ad I didn't

see that does Kanye have a an

ad There's an actual Kanye

ad

um data are facts statistics are

interpretation not true data are alleged

facts if data were

facts we'd probably be in a lot better

shape but usually data is out of context

and it's just

wrong is local still thing oh yeah let

me give you an update on locals so

locals.com is a platform um full

disclosure I have a small investment in

it as well and that's where I do um

everything that you that I don't do in

public I do there so there's a whole

bunch of other content on uh including

micro lessons on success and being more

being more effective as well as some

content that's a little too edgy to be

on Twitter or to be on uh YouTube so uh

locals is not only working but uh it's

it's working embarrassingly well the the

number of people who were willing to pay

a subscription to see extra content

actually uh is humbling because way more

demand than I could have imagined and so

far they seem happy the retention is

excellent people are adding every uh

every uh week so yeah locals.com you go

there and could follow people like me

people like Greg

Gutfeld um I think Don Jr's there bunch

of other people are going over and what

you'll see there is uh stuff you can't

see at other

places um somebody says you need a

coupon code no you don't need a coupon

code um the the creators can create a

coupon to give you a discount but you

don't need that you can just go there

and sign

up um and it's working great by the way

and the community over there is just

people who want to be you know part of

my community so I have basically no

trolls imagine a social media platform

that because it's subscription it

basically eliminates all of the trolls

every bit of content and other people

can other people post things as well so

I look at other people's content and

it's exactly what I want to see and it's

because somebody who followed me me kind

of knows what I would like to see and

knows what other people who follow me

would like to see and so it's this whole

environment where I only see stuff

that's interesting and I wanted to see

it it's the weirdest thing and they're

no trolls and and people pay a

subscription fee to be there somebody

says what is the $7 subscription fee for

it is for Content that you won't see

anywhere else but on top of that uh

there's and I didn't see this coming

exactly there's a little bit of a

patreon element to it patreon allows you

just to um essentially donate to

creators that you would like to

incentivize to do more and so I think a

lot of people just join locals because

they're supporting my

voice uh and then they also give some

extra

content but uh the if you like robots

read news my edgier uh comic that I only

do on the web um some of those I will

tweet I'll put on to Twitter so you just

so it's a acts as an advertisement for

locals but uh most of the really naughty

ones I just keep on locals if it's if

it's too edgy I just keep it there all

right that's all for now and I will talk

to you oh just to give you one more

example of what is on locals yesterday I

did a detailed um tour of my office you

know down to the down to the real

details which some people would find

interesting but others would not and

I'll talk to you tomorrow