Episode 1176 Scott Adams - Even the Looters Don't Know What to do Now. Get in Here.
Find my "extra" content on Locals: https://ScottAdams.Locals.com Content: ----------- - Fraud and the search for it - Massive pollster inaccuracy - Many possible events pending - Irregularities aplenty...maybe - Oregon legalizes all drugs ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ If you would like to enjoy this same content plus bonus content from Scott Adams, including micro-lessons on lots of useful topics to build your talent stack, please see scottadams.locals.com for full access to that secret treasure.
Hey everybody, come on in. Come on in. I know you're tense. I know you're not delighted in some cases. But come on in anyway, because we've got some interesting stuff developing. Oh, very interesting. Very interes
View segment →ting. Before we get going, just to prepare ourselves, what do we need? Yes, we need a copper mug or a glass or a tankard or a stein, a canteen, jug or flask. A vessel of any kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee. And join me now for the dopamine hit of the day, the thing that makes…
View segment →ed it bad. And you need it now. Go. Huh. I can feel some ballots being disqualified with one sip. That's all it took. All right. So I couldn't stop thinking about last night. Last night I was thinking about last night. What would it be like to be Joe Biden or Trump? But more importantly, what woul…
View segment →. There's some small chance, I guess, that Trump could pull Arizona out, and then who knows? If he holds Pennsylvania, anything could happen. But at the moment the odds are looking like Biden is going to have an electoral, tiny, tiny advantage when the votes are counted. We'll see. Now, what did w…
View segment →os in which something happens. By the way, there's no evidence that I'm aware of of Biden himself being involved in any crimes. I'm just saying anything could happen in a big, complicated world. You can accuse anybody of anything. And yeah, what happens then? Does Kamala get the electoral college v…
View segment →and police brutality? According to them there shouldn't be any difference, right? Because the issues that BLM and Antifa had don't really change if you change the president. I don't think so. So are we going to watch Antifa become the ally of Republicans because, you know, the enemy of my enemy situ…
View segment →human activity was somewhat irrelevant because AI caused us to do what we did. So it was really in charge. That's one way to look at it. The other way is that the Democrats just did a good job on everything they did. Did a good job getting in more people who would vote their way into the country, di…
View segment →he goes through his legal challenges and they don't work, or he uses the system as well as he can but he can't get a different result? Do you think there's any chance that Trump would try to stay in office if he had exhausted his appeals? I don't think so. I think the odds of that are zero. Not even…
View segment →nough to close that gap. So you might hear this phrase, the margin of litigation. Is he close enough that a legal challenge could make a difference? Don't you think you would find some pleasure if you're a Trump supporter and it turns out Biden is the winner? Would you find some pleasure in watchi…
View segment →it wasn't fraud if it turns out that the basic facts being alleged are true? Let's say it's true that 128,000 votes appeared suddenly and a hundred percent of them were Biden and that's the story. If that was the final story and we never got any deeper explanation, would you accept this election as…
View segment →l it's not defeatist. I would say that the odds of a challenge that's got some meat to it is pretty good. I don't know if that wins the day but there's a pretty good chance the president has a case. And if he could find a way to get that case to the Supreme Court, does he have an advantage because o…
View segment →ike certainty. So Amazon is way up. Well that's interesting. Bitcoin has been having a run so that's staying solid. The broader market is up solidly. Apple's way up. Israel's up. I've got a fund of stocks in Israel and that's way up. Interesting. What the hell. Okay. I'm just looking at a comment.…
View segment →slash movie hypothesis. The movie simulation theory suggests that Trump will reverse some of the votes. Now if I said to you there's a presidential candidate and he's going to challenge the votes and he's going to have them reversed and it will be enough of them that it changes the election, what w…
View segment →ow so far. It's so 2020 that it couldn't be more 2020. So we'll find out what's what and we'll find out if there's any room for this to change. And I will talk to you soon.
View segment →Hey everybody, come on in. Come on in. I know you're tense. I know you're not delighted in some cases. But come on in anyway, because we've got some interesting stuff developing. Oh, very interesting. Very interesting.
Before we get going, just to prepare ourselves, what do we need? Yes, we need a copper mug or a glass or a tankard or a stein, a canteen, jug or flask. A vessel of any kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee. And join me now for the dopamine hit of the day, the thing that makes everything better. It's called the simultaneous sip. And you need it. You need it bad. And you need it now. Go.
Huh. I can feel some ballots being disqualified with one sip. That's all it took.
All right. So I couldn't stop thinking about last night. Last night I was thinking about last night. What would it be like to be Joe Biden or Trump? But more importantly, what would it be like to be Joe Biden? And you figure he's probably exhausted, right? And he's got to go to sleep at some point. He probably didn't stay up all night.
How would you like to be Joe Biden and know that when you go to sleep last night, in all likelihood when you wake up you're either the most important person in the world, the president of the United States, or... Did YouTube just stop? Somebody's saying YouTube isn't working, but I see the comments going by, so it looks like it's working. Yeah, I've got 2,000 people on YouTube, so YouTube's working.
So imagine Joe Biden. He doesn't know if he's retired or the president of the United States. What would that do to your head? Because you and I have usually just two choices in life. You know, you apply for a job, and if you don't get it, you're unhappy. But it's not that big a difference between being unemployed and having that specific job versus being the president of the United States or retired.
So at the moment, and things are changing quickly, but at the moment it looks like Joe Biden has a stranglehold on the vote, at least what we'll call phase one of the election. Do you think it's going to be all over when they're done counting the votes? No, no. This is 2020. In 2020 things don't happen the way they happen in other years.
So let's just run down all the stuff. So I've declared that this is the first Schrödinger's cat election, meaning that there is a winner. We just don't know who it is. Now, maybe someday we'll be able to look inside the proverbial box and we'll know if the cat is alive or the cat is dead. But we can't do it yet. There's not quite enough transparency.
There's some small chance, I guess, that Trump could pull Arizona out, and then who knows? If he holds Pennsylvania, anything could happen. But at the moment the odds are looking like Biden is going to have an electoral, tiny, tiny advantage when the votes are counted. We'll see.
Now, what did we learn last night? Number one, how were the professional pollsters? Well, I would say Rasmussen was pretty close. Rasmussen once again proves that they're one of the more accurate ones. But all the pollsters who said that Biden had this gigantic double-digit advantage, were they lying or were they wrong? Or my hypothesis that it was the world's greatest dad joke. Now, it would be a better dad joke if Trump had won. But I think we can conclude that there was something wrong with those polls.
And unless you assumed that they were all colluding and lying or incompetent, I suppose the only other possibility that I can think of that's likely is that Trump supporters were lying like crazy to pollsters. So are we ready to admit that that was real, or is it too soon?
Now that we know the polls were wildly inaccurate, we didn't know that for sure, but now that we know that for sure, what's the explanation? Incompetence? Collusion, meaning they were trying to influence the vote by faking it or showing Biden was ahead so he gets more fundraising or something? So some kind of mischief, incompetence, or Trump supporters lying. Which one do you think is the most likely explanation? Like most things, we'll probably never agree.
I'm feeling pretty good about that prediction. The other prediction I made is that we would at some point, not permanently, but at some point, I predicted we would have two presidents. Now we're not there. We're not there. I would not call this situation that prediction. But we're not done when the votes are counted. You know that, right? There will be legal challenges and things discovered.
And let me ask you this just for context. Let's say the IRS took a dart and they just threw it at a bunch of names of companies, and the dart randomly hits the name of one company, and the IRS says, all right, we're going to audit you top to bottom. We're going to look at everything you've done. What are the odds that randomly throwing a dart the IRS would find a company that had tax violations?
Do you know the answer to that question? Because the answer is pretty close to a hundred percent. Now, it doesn't mean these companies are all crooks, but taxes are complicated. Things happen. Judgments are made. And if you have a big, rich, target-rich environment with complexity, yeah. I'm seeing in the comments you're saying 100%. Yeah, anybody with experience knows that's the case. Big company, 100% chance the IRS could find something they didn't like.
Now, what are the odds that the Trump administration will look at the outcome of this election and they'll look at all the reports that people are saying of there was this irregularity and this irregularity? What are the odds that the Trump campaign will not be able to find something that's real? You know, not just something they made up, but something that has some substance that they can complain about to maybe potentially possibly overthrow the results of the election. What are the chances that such an opportunity exists? 100%.
So if you're saying to yourself, are we done once the votes are counted? I doubt it. The same way, you know, if the IRS audits you, they're going to find something. And I'm sure the Trump administration can find something to make an argument about. And of course they do have the Supreme Court on their side. But we don't know if any of it goes to the Supreme Court. Might it end up at the House of Representatives, as our Constitution seems to prefer? Anything could happen.
Here's another one. What happens if Joe Biden is deemed mentally incompetent before the electoral college? What happens then if the electoral college voters vote? What happens then if they can't cast their vote for the person who won the most votes? As far as I know, if they can't do that because, let's say hypothetically, he's just not capable at that point, or maybe there's some legal problem by that point. You can imagine two scenarios in which something happens.
By the way, there's no evidence that I'm aware of of Biden himself being involved in any crimes. I'm just saying anything could happen in a big, complicated world. You can accuse anybody of anything. And yeah, what happens then? Does Kamala get the electoral college votes? How does that work? Does the House get involved?
So if you think that we're done or near done because you think you know what the end of the vote will be, I don't know. It's 2020. Anything could happen.
Let me ask you this. What are the odds that China tried to interfere with the election? Right now that's separate from the odds that we would catch them. But just what are the odds that they tried? What do you think? What are the odds that they tried? A hundred percent. I don't know how to put odds on that. But aren't we trying to interfere in other elections fairly routinely? Don't countries somewhat routinely interfere with other elections?
So suppose China was just routinely interfering, perhaps like they have in the past, perhaps like Russia is doing, you know, perhaps as other countries are doing. Who knows? And suppose we find something. What then? Because it would be so obvious that China prefers Biden. What happens if we find even a little bit of China influence on the election? What then?
There's a lot of wild cards here, aren't there? If you're a Biden supporter, even if you get the win, I don't know if you can be completely comfortable because who knows what's going to happen.
So President Trump decided to declare that in his opinion, frankly, he did win the election. That's when he was ahead in the vote count and wanted future votes, I guess, not to be counted or something. But Biden had said a little bit more reserved. He said he believed he was going to win. Now those are different. Saying you believe you're going to win is just always fair. That's always fair for a politician to say, right? So nobody gets in trouble for saying I believe I will win. But if you say I did win and they're still counting votes, that's kind of a stretch.
But did it give Trump a strategic advantage in claiming that he had won? Maybe. Maybe it would get his base on his side if he wants to fight it on some technicality. So it might give him some advantage.
What kind of irregularities are we seeing? So this is the point in the process where you shouldn't believe anything you see. The fake news that you're going to see in the next few days will be probably record-setting. And so one of the things we're seeing is that there was something that happened in Michigan where a whole bunch of votes were added to Biden sort of suddenly toward the end. Now I don't know the details of that, and I would not assume that it means something untoward happened or that anything happened, because we're so early in the fog of war that I don't even know if it's true that a bunch of votes got added for Biden at the end. Who knows? Even the basic facts are true at this point. But that's one question.
There's another question about Arizona voters who were Trump supporters getting Sharpies to use on their ballots, and that would invalidate them somehow. I don't know if there's anything to that. Who knows? Does a Sharpie invalidate your ballot? I don't know.
Of course there will be multiple reports of fake ballots and ballot harvesting. Ballot harvesting is legal depending on the state. So there's going to be all kinds of stuff to look into.
But let me ask you this. Let's say it came down to Michigan. Let's say the vote came down to whoever won Michigan would be president. And let's say Michigan came down to Detroit. It could, right? Or the Detroit county or something. Suppose it came down to really just one metropolitan area. Do you think the Trump administration could find real evidence that that one metropolitan area, no matter what it is, had some bad ballots and irregularities? Probably, right? Because again, everything big and complicated has a little bit of corruption or a little bit of mistake or a little bit of incompetence.
So if you just said randomly throw your dart at the map of the United States, hit a city, and then really do a deep dive on that city, are you gonna find any problems? Probably, right? It's a big world. There's lots of opportunities for that stuff.
59% of my followers on an unscientific Twitter poll say they think the election has been unfair. 59%. Now it's unscientific, and most of my followers are Trump supporters, so you'd expect that they would be Trump-supporting in their answering of the poll. But that's a lot of people, even unscientific.
So what would happen if Trump's supporters think that the election was not fair? If it goes through the right process, they will accept it. In other words, if the House is involved or somebody checks the votes and checks for the irregularities or the Supreme Court makes the decision, if there's something that looks like a constitutional process, I think Trump supporters are going to grudgingly accept the result even while doubting that it was legitimate, as long as the process looks like it was followed. So I don't think there's gonna be civil war in that specific sense.
Now the weirdest thing about where we are right now is that even the looters don't know what to do. You know, I tweeted that. It's a joke but not really a joke. Because what are all the protesters and the people who have assembled in the streets, what do they do if Biden wins? Do you know? I don't really know. I don't know. Do they go home if Biden wins? Because that's one possibility. They'll just go home.
But if Biden wins, don't you still have a problem with Black Lives Matter and police brutality? According to them there shouldn't be any difference, right? Because the issues that BLM and Antifa had don't really change if you change the president. I don't think so. So are we going to watch Antifa become the ally of Republicans because, you know, the enemy of my enemy situation? Antifa is going to turn on Biden, right? Because Antifa is not Democrats. They're Antifa. They don't have a party per se. So they should turn on Biden pretty quickly. You expect the Squad to turn on Biden. They've already done that. So they're going to start demanding stuff.
Now here's my question to you. Let's say the Senate holds Republican. It looks like it will, barely, right? Maybe by one vote or something like that. Maybe it's just Pence who's the tiebreaker or one vote plus Pence, something like that. Is that enough to stop Biden or let's say stop the Squad from going full socialist? Would a Republican Senate be enough to stop that stuff from happening if you only have a one-vote advantage? I don't know if that's enough, but it might be.
It could be that the thing that would surprise me the least, and indeed I've predicted this in the past, is that a regular Democrat president would have to govern like Trump did policy-wise. So my assumption is that Trump proved enough things to work. In other words, he tried different things and they worked such that whoever is president next kind of has to do that because it worked.
For example, do you think that a President Biden would just stop all work on border security? Probably not, right? Because it's not really good for Biden if things get out of control at the border. That means that Democrats lose the next election. So even Democrats can't really open the border because they would never get elected again.
So what about, say, North Korea? Is Biden going to get tough with Kim Jong-un? Probably not. He'll probably take something close to a Trump approach, which is, well, we won't threaten you if you don't threaten us. Something like that.
Do you think that Biden would just stop negotiating a trade deal with China? So he says in all caps, Trump tweeted it must be a good one. So let's go look at that. Let's see what Trump is tweeting if it's so good that you just had to tell me. All right. So he says three minutes ago Trump says, "How come every time they count mail-in ballot dumps they are so devastating in their percentage and power of destruction?" That's sort of a generic thing to say.
16 minutes ago he said, "Last night I was leading, often solidly, in many key states, in almost all instances Democrat-run and controlled. Then one by one they started to magically disappear as surprise ballot dumps were counted. Very strange." And the pollsters got it completely and historically wrong.
So it looks like he's setting it up for the mail-in ballots to be the fraudulent thing that cost him the election. What do you think? Do you think that's real? Is your opinion, if you were not just being a team player, if you were not just backing your candidate, if you stepped away and said to yourself, okay, if I'm being objective, I'm a space alien, I'm just looking at this situation, do you think that the election was stolen by mail-in ballots? What do you think?
Now I do believe that fraud is somewhat universal, meaning that probably every state, every county had a little bit of irregularity, and there probably is like that every time. But do you think the mail-in ballots really were like legitimately they had a bunch of them waiting and they just waited to see what their vote was and then they said all right we don't need all of them but let's use half of the fake ones we had and dump them out there? Do you think that happened?
Because it would only have to happen, and like I said, maybe you only needed to do it in Detroit or one or two places. So you wouldn't have to do it everywhere all over. You would just need a few places. That's it.
So looking at your comments, I'm seeing some yeses, some nos, etc. Now I think the real issue is going to come down to how many of them can be rejected because there's some signature problem or something else. And I don't know how you ever solve that.
So it looks like Trump supporters believe that there was a major fraud involved. It looks like the president is very persuasive, or he's following, I don't know if he's leading or following in this case, but he does seem to match his base. That the majority think that something illegal or fraudulent happened. I don't know how to handicap that.
Somebody says, do you still think Trump will win? Well, my most recent prediction is at least for a time we would have two presidents. And that CNN would say we have a President Biden and Fox News would say, they're not saying that now, but that they will at some point say we have a President Trump reelection. And that would happen if Trump managed to wage a legal attack against the result. It had some teeth. So if Trump comes up with some kind of a fraudulent accusation or accusation of fraud and there's actually some evidence, you never know.
But if the vote goes the way it's just being counted straight up, it looks like Biden would win at the moment. It looks like that. Then I'm just saying what the news is telling you.
So here's a question. If you thought that, let's say you had a theory that Israel secretly controls all the big decisions in this country, did you believe that? Did you think that Israel was really running the show? Because Israel wanted Trump to win. So if Israel was behind any mischief, either they didn't do anything or they did something that wasn't as big as the mischief from the other side. So can you rule out that Israel has that much power over the political process of this country? I feel like if this holds, it would be a pretty good example of how they didn't get what they wanted.
What would Biden do with all these peace deals that are happening in the Middle East? Would he reverse them and go pro-Iran? Probably not. It's sort of too late for that, isn't it?
So the one thing you should wonder about is if Biden could do any of the things that he says he wants, or would he be forced by circumstance to simply do something very close to what Trump was doing but put a new name on it and try to pretend it's different.
Somebody says, does Israel really want Trump to win? I think yeah. I think you could say that with some confidence, yes.
Arizona has two percent left to count, so that wouldn't get it done. So we have to assume that that goes to Biden.
So let's say Biden gets inaugurated and he becomes the president. What will we say was the reason? Some of you will say fraud, and you'll say that forever, I think. You also have to look at the social media companies, because at this point I don't know if humans can overcome the algorithms. You know, I call the algorithms artificial intelligence. And I had said that whether Trump wins or loses, that he'll be the last human president. Meaning that AI, if AI and the algorithms are what caused Biden to win, and of course they did. Of course they did, right? Because the stories that get promoted are the ones that influence. So the algorithms probably picked the president.
So one filter you could look at this is that the human activity was somewhat irrelevant because AI caused us to do what we did. So it was really in charge. That's one way to look at it. The other way is that the Democrats just did a good job on everything they did. Did a good job getting in more people who would vote their way into the country, did a better job of campaigning, controlled the media better. That's another way to look at it.
Somebody says the AI is made by humans. Scott, there is where you are completely misled. So yes, it is true that the AI is designed by humans. But do you believe that any humans know what the AI will do? Nope, they don't. Now they do have the power to force the AI or the algorithm to do a certain thing. They have the power. But do you think that's how they designed it? Do you think they designed it so they know exactly what it's going to do? I don't. I think it has so many variables that nobody who is human knows exactly what the algorithm is going to do. They know what they programmed, but they don't know what it's going to do.
And under that condition, would you say that the human is in charge if they don't know what their creation is going to do? Suppose you built a Frankenstein monster. You're in charge of the monster, right? So then do you control the monster after it leaves your laboratory and starts destroying the town? Could you say, hey Dr. Frankenstein, stop your monster. I mean you're the human, you made it, so you're in control, right? It doesn't work that way. Once the Frankenstein leaves the laboratory, which is what the algorithms are, they're Frankenstein outside the laboratory. The coder or Dr. Frankenstein can't control it anymore.
So when you say humans make the AI, true. But a human makes Dr. Frankenstein. He's human and he made the Frankenstein monster, but he doesn't control it after it leaves the laboratory.
All right. Can't there be overfitting? Somebody says the media stole the election. I would say that's true. If you were to look at Biden voters and ask them what do they think is true, they would just say hoax after hoax after hoax. So Biden is elected on a hoax basically.
And I would say that people ask me, Scott, why did you try so hard to debunk the fine people hoax? And the answer was that it's the tentpole hoax. All the other hoaxes depend on you thinking that one really happened. Because if you think, well, that one's proven, if you think it happened, it didn't. But if you think it did, then you start thinking, well, the other unproven ones probably true because this one was proven. So that kind of makes me think the other ones are true.
And I think Biden with the help of the media sold it as true enough that I'm sure it changed the result. I mean there was a reason that he led with it all the time in his campaign. I would imagine that they do research on that stuff, right? Don't you think that Biden's campaign stump speech was a whole bunch of poll-tested points? So they knew that the Charlottesville thing had an impact. I don't think he would have led with it consistently if they hadn't tested it to know that it made a difference.
So probably the fine people hoax made him president. I mean that's an irrational thing to say because in these situations that are complicated and there are so many variables, if you change any of them you get a different result. So you could say it was foreign interference because that was one percent of the difference. You could say it was the fine people hoax because that was one percent of the difference. And you know it was only a one percent kind of vote. So you could always say that there was something that was the difference. But really everything had to be the way it is or you wouldn't get this result.
All right. Somebody says Biden's not elected yet. Yeah, I suppose in the category of anything could happen. The fine people hoax is still a lie. That's true.
You know, so here's the real question. Will Biden getting elected, will it cause less violence in the streets? What do you think? Do you think that the riots will just stop? And I'm wondering if this isn't the very best situation for Republicans and they don't realize it. Because the rioters really needed a solid Trump victory in order to be activated. But what if they just think, well I don't know what's happening yet. I feel like looting but the trigger wasn't there. So do I take the day off? I don't know what to do. And quite literally I don't think they know what to do.
So somebody says that Biden president means more violence in the streets. Well, do you think that Democratic mayors could get tougher with the protesters if they had a Democratic president? Maybe. Maybe it's a Nixon goes to China situation and suddenly all the Democratic mayors could get tough because hey, they're not trying to show that Trump is orange man bad. We shall see.
So I'm seeing some people say the riots will stop immediately. If they do, you really gotta wonder about stuff. Yeah, I don't see any energy whatsoever for Republicans to take over now.
What do you think about Trump leaving office if let's say he goes through his legal challenges and they don't work, or he uses the system as well as he can but he can't get a different result? Do you think there's any chance that Trump would try to stay in office if he had exhausted his appeals? I don't think so. I think the odds of that are zero. Not even one percent. I think it's zero.
But what if it's inauguration day and there's still an open question of massive fraud? What then? What then indeed? Well I think that with the help of the media, the media can simply sell a Biden victory no matter how much fraud was involved. And the public will, enough of the public will accept it. So that looks like the direction we're going.
Now because it's 2020 you cannot rule out another surprise. And the other surprise would be some easy-to-prove fraud. So what do you think of the odds that the Trump administration will be able to point to something specific? You know, not just a general hey I don't like these mail-in ballots, but something like that has a video or a witness or something you could just look at and you know it's fraud. What are the odds of something like that will emerge in the next 48 hours or a week or whatever? Pretty high, right? Pretty high. Because when you need a fraud you can always find one. I feel like it doesn't take much work to find a fraud in any of these situations.
Yeah, according to the Constitution, somebody's saying Pelosi is third in line. So even Pelosi could get into the work here. All right. And Pelosi actually lost Democrats in the House. So if you're looking at how bad the polling was, look at how bad. Well I mean they got everything wrong, right? So the polls thought that the House would pick up Democrats. It didn't. It thought that the Senate would flip. It didn't. And certainly thought that the presidential election would be an overwhelming Biden victory. But it wasn't. So the polls were quite off on everything that mattered.
So in a little side story, Oregon became the first state to decriminalize hard drugs. It's like a little side story that is sort of big. So they decriminalized heroin, cocaine and meth. Wow. And by a pretty solid vote. People really wanted that. And I guess they're replacing that with some kind of humane, cost-effective health approach. I am very much in favor of this. It would have been a mistake for the entire country to do this all at the same time. But remember what I tell you about anything that you can test locally or small, you should. If you think it might work, give it a test. But test it small so you don't ruin the whole country.
So now Oregon is going to give us some data that will be really useful. And I would say that addiction is maybe the biggest problem in the country right now. So if they can get any kind of progress on that, that would be a big deal.
By the way, if Trump did lose and does lose, it's going to be because of healthcare and coronavirus, don't you think? I mean those will kind of be the reasons.
Here's a phrase that you might hear. This is from Ross Garber on Twitter who's got some credentials. And he says unless the vote is close enough there's no chance for the lawyers to kick a legal field goal. Unless it's close enough. All right, so far too many uncounted ballots in too many key places. Keep an eye on what he calls the margin of litigation.
All right. So I think maybe he said something wrong in his tweet, but what I take as his meaning is that if the distance, if the final count between Biden and Trump is small, it might be a small enough distance that a successful litigation of something specific, say one state or one metropolitan area, might be enough to overturn it. But if the Biden gap is bigger, then even if you have a successful litigation of some sort you might not change anything enough to close that gap.
So you might hear this phrase, the margin of litigation. Is he close enough that a legal challenge could make a difference?
Don't you think you would find some pleasure if you're a Trump supporter and it turns out Biden is the winner? Would you find some pleasure in watching the Squad tear him apart? Because he's going to get, I mean he'll just get ripped down to the bone I think by the progressives. So watching that will sort of be fun.
And it looks like if Biden is president all of the Russia collusion coup people will go free. We'll stay free I guess. So it looks like crime pays so far. So far I would say we have strong evidence that crime pays. And that the coup attempt with the Russia collusion hoax looks like nobody's going to get punished for that. Looks like that was just a free slap. And it will actually be part of what causes Biden to win. So I would say that that just sort of worked. It just didn't work the year that they wanted it to work but it had a spillover effect into this election for sure.
Somebody says Trump tweets are being filtered by Twitter again. Well anything where he claims victory is going to get filtered.
Will Trump's crimes pay? Well I don't know of any Trump crimes.
The hardest part about this will be all of the gloating Democrats. So I might have to take a social media holiday just until they get less excited.
Somebody's telling me to look at Trump's newest tweets. I don't know if those are the ones I just looked at but let's see. Oh there's one that's being filtered. So Matt Walsh has tweeted something that Twitter is trying very hard for me not to see. So I'm at my second level of warning here. And so Matt Walsh says this is reason enough to go to court. No honest person can look at this and say it's normal and unconcerning.
And the way he's talking about is this idea that Michigan went up 128,000 votes for Biden with no extra votes for Trump at the same time. So I believe that's the claim, that the key state of Michigan had an unexpected surge in votes. And conservatives are pointing it out and Trump is saying what is this all about in caps.
Now remember I told you that the odds of finding something irregular is kind of a hundred percent. Now suppose this is fraud. Now I think the greater odds are always that it's not, right? If you're going to bet on it, they'll probably bet that it's not. But you certainly have to ask the question why does it look like that? I think if you dig down you'll find out that there's more to it and maybe it's not what it looks like. But it could be. It could be. I'm not saying it's not fraud. It certainly has all of the telltale signs of fraud. If you were going to do fraud it would look sort of like this. So the question has to be asked and answered. But that doesn't mean it's what you think it is.
And then what else has he got here? Let's see. Yeah, and then the president retweeted someone else talking about this 128,000 votes in Michigan. You know one way this could go quite easily, what if he challenges just that and it's enough? So already you can see the wisdom of Ross Garber's comment about the margin of litigation.
So somebody tell me because I don't know, if Trump challenged just that 128,000 votes that looked sort of suspicious because 100% of them went to Biden, if he challenged just that and he succeeded, would it change the result? Is he within the margin of litigation as Ross Garber says? I don't know. I don't know if this could be more interesting or more frustrating if you tried.
How in the world did this simple process that has worked for hundreds of years become this complicated? And could you ever be convinced that it wasn't fraud if it turns out that the basic facts being alleged are true? Let's say it's true that 128,000 votes appeared suddenly and a hundred percent of them were Biden and that's the story. If that was the final story and we never got any deeper explanation, would you accept this election as valid?
I don't know. To me it would depend a little bit about whether that one change would change the result. If it would, well if it would you've got some real questions there.
Somebody says please don't have a defeatist attitude about this. Well it's not defeatist. I would say that the odds of a challenge that's got some meat to it is pretty good. I don't know if that wins the day but there's a pretty good chance the president has a case. And if he could find a way to get that case to the Supreme Court, does he have an advantage because of his conservative judges? Maybe so.
Somebody says kudos on keeping going today. Well let me ask you people, how do you feel? How do you feel today? Now of course you feel uncertainty and stomach aches and all that. But is your life ruined? Will your food taste differently today? Will your job change? For most of you you're not going to be able to tell the difference. Frankly for some of us it will be a life-changing event if Biden gets in and gets his tax plan. For example people like me have to make some real decisions about literally leaving the country. Because the tax rate that Biden has proposed is confiscatory, if I think that's a word right. Confiscatory. Meaning that I made my money under a certain set of rules. In other words capitalism. And the government said here are your rules. If you follow these rules and make some money you get to keep it. That's what I thought were the rules.
If I follow all of your constitutional rules and your laws and I make a bunch of money and I live in the United States, I get to keep it. I thought that was the deal. Now if I had been told from the beginning you know you can make as much money as you want but you're going to have to give 65% of it to the government, and by the way that's low. The 65% of it is just your regular taxes. If you're in a high tax zone I would also be paying property tax. I'd also be paying sales tax. So my effective tax rate if you take all of my taxes under Biden might be 75%. I might get to keep 25% of every dollar I earn.
That's enough to make you look at another country. But it isn't that easy to just move to another country and avoid taxes. You got to give up your citizenship and it's not easy. So it's no easy deal just to move somewhere else. It's not something you can do. Plus you want to live in the country with the biggest military. You know you don't want to live in the little island that can be conquered by just about anybody who wants to. I don't want to live on a little island that can be destroyed by a hurricane either. So it's hard to move out of the United States. It's a little bit of a network effect if you know what I mean.
Somebody says they won't let you go. Somebody says the market is up. Is it? Let's see. So markets like certainty. So Amazon is way up. Well that's interesting. Bitcoin has been having a run so that's staying solid. The broader market is up solidly. Apple's way up. Israel's up. I've got a fund of stocks in Israel and that's way up. Interesting. What the hell.
Okay. I'm just looking at a comment. Did you notice they changed the way we voted at the last minute? Just looking at your comments. Somebody says it's stupid to leave, stay and fight. Yeah I don't think taxes will go the direction of the Biden tax plan. I think that if there's a Republican Senate and the Democrats want to stay in power for a while that they probably can't do that. The yuan is tanking again. Interesting.
What is the betting market has gone Biden, right? The betting market has gone completely Biden.
So somebody asked me about simulation theory. So let me put this in a frame you've heard before. If this is a simulation, and as I've said there's a tendency for life to follow the path of the best movie, what would be the best movie? Think about it. If this were a movie and everything that had happened up to this point is what happened in the movie, what would be the movie ending? Do you know what it would be?
The movie ending would be finding out that those Michigan votes were fraudulent. And this is the third act. Because the point of the third act is that you're supposed to feel as if it's over. Like you're actually supposed to think, okay seriously, no joking aside, it's done now. It's a little bit how you might have felt the day the Access Hollywood tape came out right before the 2016 election. When I heard that my feeling was, the first time I heard it I came out of it, but the first time I heard that I said that's it. There isn't any way anybody in the world can recover from this Access Hollywood tape.
Now it took me a few days to realize that wasn't the case and came back to predicting Trump would win. But that was the third act in my opinion. That was the point where even the biggest believer, the biggest optimist capitulates and says all right, all right, there's just no hope. There's no hope left. And then the hero pulls out a victory in a way that was completely unexpected.
And the obvious way that would happen would be to find out that there was some fraud that changed the election and find out in time to reverse the outcome. So this will be a good test of the simulation slash movie hypothesis. The movie simulation theory suggests that Trump will reverse some of the votes.
Now if I said to you there's a presidential candidate and he's going to challenge the votes and he's going to have them reversed and it will be enough of them that it changes the election, what would you say in general? In general you'd say I don't think so. I don't know if any president who's ever done that. But it's Trump. Trump consistently does things you didn't think were possible. I don't have to do the list. You've seen the list. But you know he's finding peace in the Middle East. He consistently does the thing you think I don't think anybody could do. Oh he just did it.
So if you say to me the only way he could win is to do this highly unlikely play of getting a bunch of votes tossed out, very unlikely that anybody could succeed at that, but it's 2020. And it's Trump. He could. I'm not going to predict it. I'm going to say that if the movie filter holds this was the third act. And I have to say that there was nothing that happened before this that felt completely third act-y. The other things that have happened before this seemed big but they didn't quite seem like a crushing final blow. Today's vote count feels like a crushing final blow, doesn't it? So that's either real or it's the third act. We'll find out.
Somebody says Trump should pardon Hunter. I don't know what good that is. Somebody says they prefer the low budget movie where Nevada turns red in a few hours somehow. Yeah maybe.
So the slaughter meter, at least in terms of the vote, I would say is pretty close to zero. So in terms of winning it on the first count I would say the odds of Trump winning it just because the votes came in his way is pretty close to zero at this point. The odds of prevailing in the long run still exist, meaning that when he digs into this Michigan vote count there might be something there. I'd bet against it. There might be something there. So we'll find out.
All right. This is what we know so far. It's so 2020 that it couldn't be more 2020. So we'll find out what's what and we'll find out if there's any room for this to change. And I will talk to you soon.
hey everybody come on in come on in i know you're tense i know you're not delighted in some cases but come on in anyway because we got some interesting stuff developing oh very interesting very interesting and before we get going uh just to prepare ourselves what do we need yes we need a copper mug or a glass of tanker gels or stein a canteen jug or flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid i like coffee and join me now for the dopamine hit of the day the thing that makes everything better it's called the simultaneous sip and you need it you need it bad and you need it now go huh i can feel some ballots being disqualified with one step that's all it took all right so i couldn't stop thinking about last night last night i was thinking about last night what would it be like to be joe biden or trump but more importantly what would it be like to be joe biden and you figure he's probably exhausted right and he's got to go to he's got to go to sleep at some point he probably didn't stay up all night how would you like to be joe biden and know that when you go to sleep last night in all likelihood when you wake up you're either the most important person in the world the president of the united states or did did youtube just stop somebody's saying youtube isn't working but i see the comments going by so it looks like it's working uh yeah i've got 2 000 people on youtube so youtube's working so imagine joe biden he doesn't know if he's retired or the president of the united states what would that do to your head because you and i have usually just two choices in life you know you you apply for a job and if you don't get it you're unhappy but it's not that big a difference between being unemployed and having that specific job versus being the president of the united states or retired so at the moment and things are changing quickly but at the moment it looks like joe biden has a stranglehold on the vote at least what we'll call phase one of the election do you think it's going to be all over when they're done counting the votes no no this is 2020.
in 2020 things don't don't happen the way they happen in other years so let's just run down all the stuff so i've declared that this is the first schrodinger's cat election meaning that there is a winner we just don't know who it is now maybe someday we'll be able to you know look inside the proverbial box and we'll know if the cat is alive or the cat is dead but we can't do it yet there's not quite enough transparency there's some small chance i guess that trump could pull arizona out and then who knows if he holds pennsylvania anything could happen but at the moment the odds are looking like biden is going to have an electoral tiny tiny advantage when the votes are counted we'll see now what did we learn last night number one how were the professional pollsters well i would say rasmussen was pretty close rasmussen once again you know proves that they're they're one of the more accurate ones but all the pollsters who said that biden had this gigantic you know a double-digit advantage were they lying or were they wrong or my hypothesis that there were it was the world's greatest dad joke now it would be a better dad joke if trump had won but i think we can conclude that there was something wrong with those polls and unless you assumed that they were all colluding and lying or incompetent i suppose the only other possibility that i can think of that's likely is that trump supporters were lying like crazy to pollsters so are we ready to admit that that was real or is it too soon if you had the now that we know the polls were wildly inaccurate we didn't know that for sure but now that we know that for sure what's the explanation incompetence collusion meaning they were trying to influence the vote by faking it or or showing biden was ahead so he gets more fundraising or something so some kind of mischief incompetence or trump supporter is lying which which one do you think is the most likely explanation like most things we'll probably never agree i'm feeling pretty good about my that prediction the other prediction i made is that we would at some point not permanently but at some point i predicted we would have two presidents now we're not there we're not there i would not call this situation that prediction but we're not done when the votes are counted you know that right there will be legal challenges and things discovered and let me ask you this just for context let's say the irs took a dart and they just threw it at a bunch of names of companies and the dart randomly hits the name of one company and the irs says all right we're going to audit you top to bottom we're going to look at everything you've done what are the odds that randomly throwing a dart the irs would find a company that had tax violations do you know the answer that question because the answer is pretty close to a hundred percent now it doesn't mean these companies are all crooks but taxes are complicated things happen judgments are made and if you have a big rich target rich environment with complexity yeah i'm saying in the in the comments you're saying 100 yeah anybody with experience knows that's the case big company a hundred percent a chance 100 chance the irs could find something something they didn't like now what are the odds that the trump administration will look at the outcome of this election and they'll look at all the reports that people are saying of there was this irregularity in this irregularity what are the odds that the trump campaign will not be able to find something that's real you know not just something they made up but something that has some substance that they can complain about to maybe potentially possibly overthrow the results of the election what are the chances that such an opportunity exists 100 so if you're saying to yourself are we done once the votes are counted i doubt it the same way you know if the irs audits you they're going to find something and i'm sure the trump administration can find something to make an argument about and of course they do have the supreme court on their side but we don't know if any of it goes to the supreme court might it end up at the house of representatives as our constitution seems to prefer that anything could happen here's another one what happens if joe biden is deemed mentally incompetent before the electoral college what are they the the electoral college voters vote what happens then if they can't cast their vote for the person who won the most votes as far as i know if they can't do that because let's say hypothetically he's just not capable at that point or maybe there's some legal problem by that point you can imagine two scenarios in which something happens by the way there's no no evidence that i'm aware of of biden himself being involved in any crimes i'm just saying anything could happen in a big complicated world you can accuse anybody of anything and yeah what happens then does does kamala get the electoral college votes um how does that work does uh does the house get involved so if you think that we're done or near done because you think you know what the what the end of vote will be i don't know it's 2020.
anything could happen let me ask you this what are the odds that china tried to interfere with the election right now that's separate from the odds that we would catch them but just what are the odds that they tried what do you think what are the odds that they tried a hundred percent i don't know uh i don't know how to put odds on that but aren't we trying to interfere in other elections fairly routinely don't countries somewhat routinely interfere with other elections so suppose china was just routinely interfering perhaps like they have in the past perhaps like russia is doing you know perhaps as other countries are doing who knows and suppose we find something what then because it would be so obvious that china prefers biden what happens if we find even a little bit of china influence on the election what then there's a lot of wild cards here aren't there if you're a biden supporter even if you get the win i don't know if you can be completely completely comfortable because who knows what's going to happen so um president trump decided to declare that in his opinion frankly he did win the election that's when he was ahead in the vote count and wanted wanted future votes i guess not to be counted or something but biden had said a little bit more reserved he said he he believed he was going to win now those are different saying you believe you're going to win is just always fair that's always fair for a politician to say right so nobody gets in trouble for saying i believe i will win but if you say i did win and they're still counting votes that's a that's kind of a stretch but did it give trump a strategic advantage in claiming that he had won maybe maybe it would you know get his base on his side if he wants to fight it on some technicality so it might give him some advantage um what kind of irregularities are we seeing so uh this is the point in the process where you shouldn't believe anything you see yeah the the fake news that you're going to see in the next few days will be probably record setting and so one of the things we're seeing is that there was something that happened in michigan where a whole bunch of votes were added to to biden sort of suddenly toward the end now i don't know the details of that and i would not assume that it means something untoward happened or that anything happened because we're so early in the the fog of war that i don't even know if it's true that a bunch of votes got added for biden at the end who knows even the basic facts are true at this point but that's you know one question there's another question about arizona voters who were trump supporters getting sharpies to use on their ballots and that would invalidate them somehow i don't know if there's anything to that who knows does a sharpie invalidate your ballot i don't know um of course there there will be multiple reports of fake ballots and ballot harvesting ballot harvesting is legal depending on the state so there's going to be all kinds of stuff to look into but let me ask you this let's say it came down to michigan let's say the the vote came down to whoever won michigan would be president and let's say michigan came down to detroit it could right or the detroit county or something suppose it came down to really just one metropolitan area do you think the trump administration could find real evidence that that one metropolitan area no matter what it is had some bad balance and irregularities probably right because again everything big and complicated has a little bit of corruption or a little bit of mistake or a little bit of incompetence so if you just said randomly throw your dart at the map of the united states hit a city and then really do a deep dive on that city are you gonna find any problems probably right it's it's a big world there's lots of opportunities for that stuff um so 59 of my followers on an uh unscientific twitter poll say they think the election has been unfair 59 now it's unscientific and most of my followers are trump supporters so you'd expect that they would be trump sporting in their answering of the poll but that's a lot of people even unscientific so what would happen if trump's supporters think that the election was not fair if it goes through the right process they will accept it in other words if i i don't know if the house is involved or somebody checks the votes and checks for the irregularities or the supreme court makes the decision if there's something that looks like a constitutional process i think trump supporters are going to grudgingly accept the result even while doubting that it was legitimate as long as the process looks like it was followed um so i don't think there's gonna be civil war in that specific sense now the weirdest thing about where we are right now is that even the looters don't know what to do you know i tweeted that uh it's it's a joke but not really a joke because what are all the protesters and the the people who have assembled in the streets what do they do if biden wins do you know i don't really know i don't know do they go home if biden wins because that's one possibility they'll just go home but if biden wins don't you still have a problem with black lives matter and police brutality according to them there shouldn't be any difference right because the issues that blm and antifa had don't really change if you change the president i don't think so so are we going to watch antifa become the the ally of republicans because you know the enemy of my enemy situation antifa is going to turn on biden right because antifa is not democrats they're they're antifa they don't have a party per se so they should turn on biden pretty quickly you expect the squad to turn on biden they've already done that so they're going to start demanding stuff now here's my question to you let's say the senate holds republican it looks like it will barely right maybe by one one vote or something like that maybe it's just pence who's the tiebreaker or one vote plus pence something like that is that enough to stop biden or let's say stop the squad from going full socialist would a would a republican senate be enough to stop that stuff from happening if you only have a you know one vote advantage i don't know if that's enough but it might be it could be that the the thing that would surprise me the least and indeed i've predicted this in the past is that a a regular democrat president would have to govern like trump did policy-wise so my my assumption is that uh trump proved enough things to work in other words he tried different things and they worked such that whoever is president next kind of has to do that because it worked for example do you think that do you think that a president biden would just stop all work on border security probably not right because it's not really good for biden if things get out of control at the border that means that democrats lose the next election so even democrats can't really open the border because they would never get you know they'd never get elected again so what about say north korea is biden going to get tough with kim jong-un probably not he'll probably take something close to a trump approach which is well we won't threaten you if you don't threaten us something like that do you think that a biden biden would just stop negotiating a trade deal with uh with china so he says in all caps trump tweeted it must be a good one so let's let's go look at that let's see what trump is tweeting if it's so good that you just had to tell me all right so he says three minutes ago trump says how come every time they count mail-in ballot dumps they are so devastating in their percentage and power of destruction that's sort of a generic thing to say 16 minutes ago he said last night i was leading often solidly in many key states in almost all instances democrat run and controlled then one by one they started to magically disappear as surprise ballot dumps were counted very strange and the quote pollsters got it completely and historically wrong so it looks like he's setting it up for the uh the mail-in ballots to be the the fraudulent thing that cost in the election um what do you think do you think that's real is your opinion if if you were not just being a team player if you were not just you know backing your candidate if you stepped away and said to yourself okay if i'm being objective i'm a space alien i'm just looking at this situation do you think that the election was stolen by mail-in ballots what do you think now i do believe that fraud is somewhat universal meaning that probably you know every state every county had a little bit of irregularity and there probably is like that every time but do you think the mail-in ballots really were like legitimately they had a bunch of them waiting and they just waited to see what their vote was and then they said all right we don't need all of them but let's use half of the one the fake ones we had and dump them out there do you think that happened because it would only have to happen and like i said maybe you only needed to do it in detroit or you know one or two places so you wouldn't have to do it everywhere all over you would just need a few places that's it so looking at your comments i'm seeing some yeses some some no's etc now i think the real the real issue is going to come down to how many of them can be rejected because there's some signature problem or something else and i don't know how you ever solve that so it looks like trump supporters believe that there was a major fraud involved it looks like the president is very persuasive or he's or who he's following i don't know if he's leading or following in this case but he does seem to match his base that the majority think that something illegal or fraudulent happened i don't know how to handicap that somebody says do you still think trump will win well my most recent prediction is at least for a time we would have two presidents and that cnn would say we have a president biden and fox news would say they're not saying that now but that they will at some point say uh we have a president trump uh re-election and that would happen if if trump managed to wage a let's say a legal attack against the result it had some teeth so if trump comes up with some kind of a fraudulent accusation or accusation of fraud and there's actually some evidence you never know but if the if the vote goes the way it's just being counted straight up it looks like you biden would win at at the moment it looks like that then i'm just saying what the news is telling you um so here's a question if you thought that let's say you had a theory that israel secretly controls all the big decisions in this country did you believe that did you think that israel was really running the show because israel wanted trump to win so if israel was behind any mischief either they didn't do anything or they did something that wasn't as big as the mischief from the other side so can you rule out that israel has that much power over the political process of this country i feel like if this if this holds would be a pretty good example of how they didn't get what they wanted what would biden do with all these peace deals that are happening in the middle east would he reverse them and go pro iran probably not it's sort of too late for that isn't it so the one thing you should wonder about is if biden could do any of the things that he says he wants or would he be forced by circumstance to simply do something very close to what trump was doing but you know put a new name on it and try to pretend it's different somebody says does israel really want trump to win i think yeah i think you could say that with some confidence yes uh arizona has two percent left to count so that that wouldn't get it done so that we have to assume that that goes to biden so let's let's say let's say biden gets inaugurated and he becomes the president what will we say was the reason some of you will say fraud and you'll say that forever i think you also have to look at the social media companies because at this point i don't know if humans can overcome the algorithms you know i call the algorithms artificial intelligence and i had said that whether trump wins or loses that he'll be the last human president meaning that a.i if a.i and the algorithms are what caused biden to win and of course they did of course they did right because the stories that get promoted are the ones that influence so the algorithms probably picked the president so so one filter you could look at this is that the the human activity was somewhat irrelevant because a.i caused us to do what we did so it was really in charge that's one way to look at it the other way is that the democrats just did a good job on everything they did a good job getting in more you know more people who would vote their way into the country did a better job of campaigning controlled the media better that's another way to look at it somebody some people say the ai is made by humans scott there is where you are completely uh misled so yes it is true that the ai is designed by humans but do you believe that any humans know what the ai will do nope they don't now they do have the power to force the ai or the algorithm to do a certain thing they have the power but do you think that's how they designed it do you think they designed it so they know exactly what it's going to do i don't i think he has so many variables that nobody who is human knows exactly what the algorithm is going to do they know what they programmed but they don't know what it's going to do and under that condition would you say that the human is in charge if they don't know what their creation is going to do suppose you built a frankenstein monster you're in charge of the monster right so then do you control the monster after it leaves your laboratory and starts destroying the town could you say hey dr frankenstein stop your monster i mean you're the human you made it so you're in control right it doesn't work that way once the frankenstein leaves the laboratory which is what the algorithms are they're frankenstein outside the laboratory the the coder or dr frankenstein can't control it anymore so when you say humans make the ai true but a human makes doc dr frankenstein's human and he made the frankenstein monster but he doesn't control it after it leaves the laboratory um all right um can't there be overfitting somebody says the media stole the election i would say that's true if you were to look at biden voters and ask them you know what do they think is true they would just say hoax after hoax after hoax so biden is elected on a hoax basically and i would say that you know people ask me what scott why did you try so hard to debunk the fine people hoax and the answer was that it's the ten pole hoax all the other hoaxes depend on you thinking that one really happened because if you think well that one's proven if you think it happened it didn't but if you think you did then you start thinking well the other unproven ones probably true because this one was proven so that kind of makes me think the other ones are true and i think biden with the help of the media sold it as true enough that i'm sure it changed the result i mean there was a reason that he led with it all the time in his campaign i would imagine that they do research on that stuff right don't you think that biden's campaign stump speech was a whole bunch of poll tested points so they they knew that the charlottesville thing had an impact i don't think he would have led with it consistently if they hadn't tested it to know that it made a difference so probably the fine people hoax made him president i mean that's an irrational thing to say because in these situations that are complicated and there are so many variables if you change any of them you get a different result so you could say it was foreign interference because that was one percent of the difference you could say it was the fine people oaks because that was one percent of the difference and you know it was only a one percent kind of vote so you could always say that there was something that was the difference but really everything had to be the way it is or you wouldn't get this result all right somebody says biden's not elected yet yeah i suppose in the category of anything could happen um yeah the fine people hoax is still a lie that's true you know so here's here's the real question will biden getting elected will it um will it cause less violence in the streets what do you think do you think that the riots will just stop and i'm wondering if this isn't the very best situation for um republicans and they don't realize it because the rioters really needed a solid trump victory in order to be activated but what if they just think well i don't know what's happening yet uh i feel like looting but the trigger wasn't there so do i take the day off i don't know what to do and quite literally i don't think they know what to do so somebody says that biden president means more violence in the streets well do you think that democratic mayors could get tougher with the protesters if they had a democratic president maybe maybe it's a nixon goes to china's situation and suddenly all the democratic mayors could get tough because hey they're not trying to show that trump is orange man bad we shall see so i'm seeing some people say the riots will stop immediately if they do you really gotta wonder about stuff yeah i don't i don't see any energy whatsoever for republicans to take over now what do you think about uh trump leaving office if let's say he goes through his legal challenges and they don't work or he he uses the system as well as he can but he can't get a different result do you think there's any chance that trump would try to stay in office if he had exhausted his appeals i don't think so i think the odds of that are zero not even you know one percent i think it's zero uh but what if it's inauguration day and there's still an open question of massive fraud what then what then indeed well i think that the uh with the help of the media the media can simply sell a biden victory no matter how much fraud was involved and the public will enough of the public will accept it so that looks like the direction we're going now because it's 2020 you cannot rule out another surprise and the other surprise would be some easy to prove fraud so what do you think of the odds that the trump administration will be able to point to something specific you know not just a general hey i don't like these mail-in ballots but something like that has a video or a witness or or something you could just look at and you know it's fraud what are the odds of something like that will emerge in the next i don't know 48 hours or a week or whatever pretty high right pretty high because when you need a when you need a fraud you can always find one i feel i feel like it doesn't doesn't take much work to find a fraud in any of these situations yeah according to the constitution somebody's saying pelosi is third in line so even pelosi could get into the the work here all right um let's see and pelosi actually lost democrats in the house so if you're looking at how bad the polling was look at how bad well i mean they got everything wrong right so the polls thought that the house would pick up democrats it didn't it thought that the senate would flip it didn't and certainly thought that the presidential election would be you know an overwhelming biden victory but it wasn't so the polls were quite quite off and everything that mattered so in a little side story uh oregon became the first state to decriminalize hard drugs that it's like a little side story that is sort of big so they decriminalized heroin cocaine and meth wow um and by a pretty solid vote people really wanted that and i guess they're replacing that with some kind of humane cost-effective health approach i am very much in favor of this it would have been a mistake for the entire country to do this all at the same time but remember what i tell you about anything that you can test locally or small you should if you think if you think it might work give it a test but test is small so you don't ruin the whole country so now oregon is going to give us some data that will be really useful and i would say that addiction is maybe the biggest problem in the country right now so if they can get any any kind of progress on that that would be a big deal by the way if if trump did lose and does lose it's going to be because of healthcare and coronavirus don't you think i mean those will kind of be the reasons um here is a oh so here's a phrase that you might hear this is from ross garber on twitter who's got some credentials and he says unless the vote is close enough there's no chance for the lawyers to kick a legal field goal unless it's close enough all right so far too many uncounted ballots in too many key places keep an eye on what he calls the margin of litigation all right so i think maybe he said something wrong in his tweet but what i take as his meaning is that if the distance if the final count between biden and trump is small it might be a small enough distance that a successful litigation of something specific say one state or one metropolitan area might be enough to overturn it but if the biden gap is bigger then even if you have a successful litigation of some sort you might not change anything enough to close that gap so you might hear this phrase the margin of litigation is he close enough that a legal challenge could make a difference um don't you think you would find some pleasure if you're a trump supporter and it turns out biden is is the winner would you find some pleasure in watching the squad tear him apart because because he's going to get i mean he'll just it'll be ripped down to the bone i think by the progressives so watching that will sort of be fun um and it looks like if biden is president all of the russia collusion coup people will go free we'll stay free i guess so it looks like crime pays so far so far i would say we have strong evidence that crime pays and that the coup attempt with the russia collusion hoax looks like nobody's going to get punished for that looks like that was just a free slap and and it will actually uh be part of what causes biden to win so i would say that that just sort of worked it just didn't work the year that they wanted to work but it had a spillover effect into this election for sure somebody says trump tweets are being filtered by twitter again well anything where he claims victory is going to get filtered uh will will trump's crimes pay well i don't know of any trump crimes all right um the the hardest part about this will be all of the gloating democrats so i might have to take a uh social media holiday just just until they get less excited somebody's telling me to look at trump's newest tweets i don't know if those are the ones i just looked at but let's see um oh there's one that's being filtered oh so matt walsh has tweeted something that uh twitter is trying very hard for me not to see so i'm at my second level of warning here and so matt walsh says this is reason enough to go to court no honest person can look at this and say it's normal and unconcerning and the way he's talking about is this uh idea that michigan went up 128 000 votes for biden with no extra votes for trump at the same time so i believe that's the claim that the key state of michigan had an unexpected surge in votes and conservatives are pointing it out and trump is saying what is this all about in caps now remember i told you that the odds of finding something irregular is kind of a hundred percent now suppose suppose this is fraud now i think the greater odds are always that it's not right if you're going to bet on it they'll probably bet that it's not but you certainly have to ask the question why does it look like that i think if you dig down you'll find out that there's more more to it and maybe it's not what it looks like but it could be it could be i'm not saying it's not fraud it certainly has all of the telltale signs of fraud if you were going to do fraud it would look sort of like this so the question has to be asked and answered but that doesn't mean it's what you think it is um and then what else has he got here let's see yeah and then then the president retweeted someone else talking about this 128 000 votes in michigan you know one way this could go quite easily what if he challenges just that and it's enough so so already already you can see the wisdom of ross garber's comment about the margin of litigation so somebody tell me because i don't know if trump challenged just that 128 000 votes that looked sort of suspicious because 100 of them went to biden if he challenged just that and he succeeded would it change the result is he within the margin of litigation as ross garber says i don't know i don't know if this could be more interesting or more frustrating if if you tried how in the world did this simple process that has worked for hundreds of years become this complicated um and could you ever be convinced that it wasn't fraud if it turns out that the basic facts being alleged are true let's say it's true that 128 000 votes appeared suddenly and a hundred percent of them were biden and that's the story if that was the final story and we never got any deeper explanation would you accept this election as valid i don't know to me it would depend a little bit about whether that one change would would change the result if it would well if it would you got some real questions there somebody says please don't have a defeatist attitude about this well it's not defeatist uh i would say that the odds of a of a challenge that's got some meat to it is pretty good i don't know if that wins the day but there's a pretty good chance the president has a as a case and if he could find a way to get that case to the supreme court does he have an advantage because of his conservative judges maybe so somebody says kudos on uh and keeping going today well let me ask you people how do you feel how do you feel today now of course you feel uncertainty and stomach aches and all that but is your life ruined will your food taste differently today will you will your job change for most of you you're not going to be able to tell the difference frankly for some of us it will be a life-changing event if biden gets in and gets his tax plan for example people like me have to make some real decisions about literally leaving the country because the tax rate that biden has proposed is confiscatory if i think that's a word right confiscatory meaning that i made my money under a certain set of rules in other words capitalism and the government said here are your rules if you follow these rules and make some money you get to keep it that's what i thought were the rules if i follow all of your constitutional rules and your laws and i make a bunch of money and i live in the united states i get to keep it i thought that was the deal now if i had been told from the beginning you know you can make as much money as you want but you're going to have to give 65 of it to the government and by the way that's low the 65 of it is just your regular taxes if you're in a high tax zone i would also be paying property tax i'd also be paying sales tax so my effective tax rate if you take all of my taxes under biden might be 75 i might get to keep 25 percent of every dollar i earn that's enough to make you look at another country but it isn't that easy to just move to another country and avoid taxes you got to give up your citizenship and it's not easy so it's no it's no easy deal just to move somewhere else it's it's not something you can do plus you want to live in the country with the biggest military you know you don't want to live in the little island that can be conquered by just about anybody who wants to i don't want to live on a little island that can be destroyed by a hurricane either so it's hard to move out of the united states it's a little bit of a network effect if you know what i mean somebody says they won't let you go um oh somebody says the market is up is it let's see so markets like certainty so amazon is way up well that's interesting um bitcoin has been having a run so that's staying solid the the broader market is up solidly apple's way up israel's up the i've got a fund of stocks in israel and that's way up um interesting what the hell okay um i'm just looking at a comment uh did you notice they changed the way we voted at the last minute just looking at your comments somebody says it's stupid to leave stay and fight yeah i don't think taxes will go the direction of the biden tax plan i think that if there's a republican senate and the democrats want to stay in power for a while that they probably can't do that the wan is tanking again interesting what what is the betting market has gone biden right the betting market has gone completely biden so somebody asked me about simulation theory so let me let me put this in a frame you've heard before if this is a simulation and as i've said there's a tendency for life to follow the path of the best movie what would be the best movie think about it if this were a movie and everything that had happened up to this point is what happened in the movie what would be the movie ending do you know what it would be the movie ending would be finding out that those michigan votes were fraudulent and that and this is the third act because the point of the third act is that you're supposed to feel as if it's over like you're actually supposed to think okay seriously no joking aside it's done now it's a little bit how you might have felt the day the access hollywood tape came out right before the 2016 election when i heard that my feeling was the first time i heard it i came out of it but the first time i heard that i said that's it there isn't any way anybody in the world can recover from this excess hollywood tape now it took me a few days to realize that wasn't the case and came back to predicting trump would win but that was the third act in my opinion that was the point where even the biggest believer the biggest optimist capitulates and says all right all right there's just no hope there's no hope left and then the hero pulls out a victory in a way that was completely unexpected and the obvious way that would happen would be to find out that there was some fraud that changed the election and find out in time to reverse the outcome so this will be a good test of the simulation slash movie hypothesis this the the movie simulation theory suggests that trump will reverse uh reverse some of the votes now if i said to you there's a there's a presidential candidate and he's going to challenge the votes and he's going to have them reversed and it will be enough of them that it changes the election what would you say in general in general you'd say i don't think so i don't know if any president who's ever done that but it's trump trump consistently does things you didn't think were possible i don't have to do the list you've seen the list but you know he's he's finding peace in the middle east he consistently does the thing you think i don't think anybody could do oh he just did it so if you say to me the only way he could win is to do this highly unlikely play of getting a bunch of votes tossed out very unlikely that anybody could succeed at that but it's 2020.
and it's trump he could i'm not i'm not going to predict it i'm going to say that if the movie filter holds this was the third act and i have to say that there was nothing that happened before this that felt completely third acne the other things that have happened before this seemed big but they didn't quite seem like a crushing final blow today's vote count feels like a crushing final blow doesn't it so that's either real or it's the third act we'll find out somebody says trump should pardon hunter i don't know what good that is uh somebody says they prefer the low budget movie where nevada turns red in a few hours somehow yeah maybe um so the slaughter meter at least in terms of the vote i would say is pretty close to zero so in terms of winning it on the first count i would say the odds of trump winning it just because the votes came in his way is pretty close to zero at this point the odds of prevailing in the long run still exist meaning that uh when he digs into this michigan vote count there might be something there i'd bet against it there might be something there so we'll find out all right um this is what we know so far it's so 2020 uh that it that it it couldn't be more 2020.
so we'll find out what's what and we'll find out uh if there's any room for this to change and i will talk to you soon
hey everybody
come on in come on in
i know you're tense i know you're not
delighted
in some cases but come on in anyway
because we got some interesting stuff
developing
oh very interesting very interesting
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huh i can feel some ballots being
disqualified
with one step that's all it took
all right so i couldn't stop thinking
about last night
last night i was thinking about last
night what would it be like
to be joe biden or trump
but more importantly what would it be
like to be joe biden
and you figure he's probably exhausted
right and he's got to go to
he's got to go to sleep at some point he
probably didn't stay up all night
how would you like to be joe biden and
know that when you go to sleep
last night in all likelihood
when you wake up you're either the most
important person
in the world the president of the united
states
or did
did youtube just stop
somebody's saying youtube isn't working
but i see the comments going by so it
looks like it's working
uh yeah i've got 2 000 people on youtube
so youtube's working
so imagine joe biden he doesn't know if
he's retired
or the president of the united states
what would that do to your head because
you and i
have usually just two choices in life
you know you you apply for a job
and if you don't get it you're unhappy
but it's not
that big a difference between being
unemployed and having that specific job
versus being the president of the united
states
or retired
so at the moment and things are changing
quickly but at the moment it looks like
joe biden has
a stranglehold on the vote at least what
we'll call
phase one of the election
do you think it's going to be all over
when they're done counting the votes
no no this is 2020. in 2020
things don't don't happen the way
they happen in other years so let's just
run down
all the stuff so i've declared that this
is the first
schrodinger's cat election meaning that
there is a winner we just don't know who
it is
now maybe someday we'll be able to you
know look inside the
proverbial box and we'll know if the cat
is alive or the cat is dead
but we can't do it yet there's not quite
enough transparency there's
some small chance i guess that trump
could pull
arizona out and then who knows if he
holds pennsylvania
anything could happen but at the moment
the odds are looking like biden is going
to have an electoral
tiny tiny advantage when the votes are
counted
we'll see now
what did we learn last night number one
how were the professional pollsters
well i would say rasmussen was pretty
close
rasmussen once again you know proves
that they're
they're one of the more accurate ones
but all the pollsters who said that
biden had this gigantic
you know a double-digit advantage
were they lying or were they wrong
or my hypothesis
that there were it was the world's
greatest dad joke
now it would be a better dad joke if
trump had won but i think we can
conclude
that there was something wrong with
those polls and unless you assumed that
they were all colluding and lying or
incompetent i suppose
the only other possibility that i can
think of that's
likely is that trump supporters were
lying like crazy to pollsters
so are we ready to admit that that was
real
or is it too soon if you had the
now that we know the polls were wildly
inaccurate
we didn't know that for sure but now
that we know that for sure
what's the explanation incompetence
collusion meaning they were trying to
influence the vote by
faking it or or showing biden was ahead
so he gets more fundraising or something
so some kind of mischief
incompetence or trump supporter is lying
which
which one do you think is the most
likely explanation
like most things we'll probably never
agree i'm
feeling pretty good about my that
prediction
the other prediction i made is that we
would at some point
not permanently but at some point i
predicted we would have two presidents
now we're not there we're not there i
would not call this situation
that prediction but
we're not done when the votes are
counted you know that right there will
be legal challenges and things
discovered
and let me ask you this just for context
let's say the irs took a dart
and they just threw it at a bunch of
names of
companies and the dart randomly hits the
name of one company and the irs says all
right we're going to audit you
top to bottom we're going to look at
everything you've done
what are the odds that randomly throwing
a dart
the irs would find a company that had
tax violations do you know the answer
that question
because the answer is pretty close to a
hundred percent
now it doesn't mean these companies are
all crooks
but taxes are complicated things happen
judgments are made and if you have a big
rich
target rich environment with complexity
yeah i'm saying in the
in the comments you're saying 100 yeah
anybody with experience
knows that's the case big company
a hundred percent a chance 100 chance
the irs could find
something something they didn't like
now what are the odds that the trump
administration
will look at the outcome of this
election
and they'll look at all the reports that
people are saying of
there was this irregularity in this
irregularity
what are the odds that the trump
campaign will not be able to find
something that's
real you know not just something they
made up
but something that has some substance
that they can complain about
to maybe potentially possibly
overthrow the results of the election
what are the chances
that such an opportunity exists
100 so if you're saying to yourself
are we done once the votes are counted i
doubt it
the same way you know if the irs audits
you they're going to find something
and i'm sure the trump administration
can find something
to make an argument about and of course
they do have
the supreme court on their side but we
don't know if any of it goes to the
supreme court
might it end up at the house of
representatives
as our constitution seems to prefer
that anything could happen here's
another one
what happens if joe biden
is deemed mentally incompetent
before the electoral college
what are they the the electoral college
voters vote
what happens then if they can't cast
their vote for the person who won the
most
votes as far as i know if they can't do
that
because let's say hypothetically he's
just not capable at that point
or maybe there's some legal problem by
that point you can imagine
two scenarios in which something happens
by the way there's no no evidence that
i'm aware of
of biden himself being involved in any
crimes i'm just saying anything could
happen
in a big complicated world you can
accuse anybody of anything
and
yeah what happens then does does kamala
get the electoral college votes
um how does that work does uh
does the house get involved so if you
think that we're done
or near done because you think you know
what the what the end of vote will be
i don't know it's 2020. anything could
happen
let me ask you this what are the odds
that china tried to interfere with the
election
right now that's separate from the odds
that we would catch them
but just what are the odds that they
tried
what do you think what are the odds that
they tried
a hundred percent i don't know
uh i don't know how to put odds on that
but aren't we trying to interfere in
other elections
fairly routinely don't countries
somewhat routinely interfere with other
elections
so suppose china was just routinely
interfering
perhaps like they have in the past
perhaps like russia is doing
you know perhaps as other countries are
doing
who knows and suppose we find something
what then because it would be so obvious
that china
prefers biden what happens if we find
even a little bit of china influence
on the election what then
there's a lot of wild cards here aren't
there if you're
a biden supporter even if you get the
win
i don't know if you can be completely
completely comfortable because who knows
what's going to happen
so um president trump
decided to declare that in his opinion
frankly he did win the election
that's when he was ahead in the vote
count and wanted
wanted future votes i guess not to be
counted or something
but biden had said a little bit more
reserved he said
he he believed he was going to win now
those are different
saying you believe you're going to win
is just always fair
that's always fair for a politician to
say right
so nobody gets in trouble for saying i
believe i will win
but if you say i did win and they're
still counting votes
that's a that's kind of a stretch but
did it give
trump a strategic advantage in claiming
that he had won
maybe maybe it would you know get his
base on his side if he wants to fight it
on some technicality
so it might give him some advantage
um what kind of irregularities are we
seeing
so uh this is the point in the process
where you shouldn't believe anything you
see yeah the the
fake news that you're going to see in
the next few days will be
probably record setting and so one of
the things we're seeing is that there
was something that happened in michigan
where a whole bunch of votes were added
to to biden
sort of suddenly toward the end now
i don't know the details of that and i
would not assume that it means something
untoward happened or that anything
happened
because we're so early in the the fog of
war that i don't even know if it's true
that a bunch of votes got added for
biden at the end
who knows even the basic facts are true
at this point
but that's you know one question there's
another question about
arizona voters who were trump supporters
getting
sharpies to use on their ballots and
that would invalidate them somehow
i don't know if there's anything to that
who knows does a sharpie invalidate your
ballot
i don't know um of course there there
will be
multiple reports of fake ballots and
ballot harvesting ballot harvesting is
legal depending on the state
so there's going to be all kinds of
stuff to look into but
let me ask you this let's say it came
down to michigan
let's say the the vote came down to
whoever won
michigan would be president and let's
say michigan
came down to detroit
it could right or the detroit county or
something
suppose it came down to really just one
metropolitan area
do you think the trump administration
could
find real evidence that that one
metropolitan area no matter what it is
had some bad balance and irregularities
probably right because again
everything big and complicated has a
little bit of corruption
or a little bit of mistake or a little
bit of incompetence
so if you just said randomly throw your
dart
at the map of the united states hit a
city
and then really do a deep dive on that
city
are you gonna find any problems probably
right it's it's a big world there's lots
of opportunities for that stuff
um so
59 of my followers on an uh
unscientific twitter poll say they think
the election
has been unfair 59
now it's unscientific and most of my
followers are trump supporters
so you'd expect that they would be trump
sporting in their
answering of the poll but that's a lot
of people
even unscientific so
what would happen if trump's supporters
think that the election was not fair
if it goes through the right process
they will accept it in other words if
i i don't know if the house is involved
or somebody checks the votes and
checks for the irregularities or the
supreme court makes the decision
if there's something that looks like a
constitutional process
i think trump supporters are going to
grudgingly accept the result
even while doubting that it was
legitimate as long as the process
looks like it was followed um so i don't
think there's gonna be civil war in that
specific sense
now the weirdest thing about where we
are right now
is that even the looters don't know what
to do
you know i tweeted that uh it's it's a
joke but not really a joke
because what are all the protesters and
the
the people who have assembled in the
streets what do they do if biden wins
do you know i don't really know
i don't know do they go home if biden
wins
because that's one possibility they'll
just go home
but if biden wins don't you still have a
problem with
black lives matter and police brutality
according to them
there shouldn't be any difference right
because the issues that blm and antifa
had
don't really change if you change the
president
i don't think so so are we going to
watch
antifa become the
the ally of republicans
because you know the enemy of my enemy
situation antifa is going to turn on
biden
right because antifa is not democrats
they're they're antifa they don't have a
party per se
so they should turn on biden pretty
quickly you
expect the squad to turn on biden
they've already done that
so they're going to start demanding
stuff now here's my question to you
let's say the senate holds republican it
looks like it will barely right
maybe by one one vote
or something like that maybe it's just
pence who's the tiebreaker
or one vote plus pence something like
that
is that enough to stop
biden or let's say stop the squad from
going full socialist
would a would a republican senate be
enough
to stop that stuff from happening if you
only have a you know one vote advantage
i don't know if that's enough
but it might be it could be that the the
thing that would surprise me the least
and indeed i've predicted this in the
past
is that a a regular democrat
president would have to govern like
trump did policy-wise so
my my assumption is that uh trump proved
enough things to work in other words he
tried
different things and they worked such
that whoever is president next
kind of has to do that because it worked
for example
do you think that do you think that a
president biden
would just stop all work on border
security
probably not right because
it's not really good for biden if things
get out of control
at the border that means that democrats
lose the next election
so even democrats can't really open the
border
because they would never get you know
they'd never get elected again
so what about say north korea is biden
going to get
tough with kim jong-un probably not
he'll probably take something close to a
trump approach
which is well we won't threaten you if
you don't threaten us
something like that do you think that a
biden
biden would just stop negotiating a
trade deal with
uh with china so
he says in all caps trump tweeted
it must be a good one so let's let's go
look at that
let's see what trump is tweeting if it's
so good
that you just had to tell me
all right
so he says three minutes ago trump says
how come every time they count mail-in
ballot dumps
they are so devastating in their
percentage and power of destruction
that's sort of a generic thing to say
16 minutes ago he said last night i was
leading often
solidly in many key states in almost all
instances
democrat run and controlled then
one by one they started to magically
disappear
as surprise ballot dumps were counted
very strange and the quote pollsters got
it completely and historically wrong
so it looks like he's setting it up for
the uh
the mail-in ballots to be the
the fraudulent thing that cost in the
election
um what do you think do you think that's
real
is your opinion if if you were not just
being a team player
if you were not just you know backing
your candidate if you stepped away
and said to yourself okay if i'm being
objective
i'm a space alien i'm just looking at
this situation
do you think that the election was
stolen by
mail-in ballots
what do you think now i do believe that
fraud is somewhat
universal meaning that probably you know
every state
every county had a little bit of
irregularity
and there probably is like that every
time but do you think the
mail-in ballots really were like
legitimately they had a bunch of them
waiting
and they just waited to see what their
vote was and then they said all right
we don't need all of them but let's use
half of the one the fake ones we had and
dump them out there
do you think that happened
because it would only have to happen and
like i said maybe you only needed to do
it in detroit
or you know one or two places so you
wouldn't have to do it everywhere all
over
you would just need a few places that's
it
so looking at your comments i'm seeing
some yeses
some some no's
etc now i think the real
the real issue is going to come down to
how many of them
can be rejected because there's some
signature problem or something
else and
i don't know how you ever solve that
so it looks like trump supporters
believe that there was a major fraud
involved
it looks like the president is very
persuasive
or he's or who he's following i don't
know if he's leading or following in
this case
but he does seem to match his base
that the majority think that something
illegal or fraudulent happened
i don't know how to handicap that
somebody says do you still think trump
will win
well my most recent
prediction is at least for a time we
would have two presidents
and that cnn would say we have a
president biden
and fox news would say they're not
saying that now
but that they will at some point say uh
we have a president trump
uh re-election and that would happen
if if trump managed to
wage a let's say a legal attack against
the result
it had some teeth so if
trump comes up with some kind of a
fraudulent accusation or accusation of
fraud
and there's actually some evidence
you never know but if the if the vote
goes the way it's just being counted
straight up
it looks like you biden would win at at
the moment it looks like that
then i'm just saying what the news is
telling you
um so here's a question if you thought
that
let's say you had a theory that israel
secretly controls all the big decisions
in this country
did you believe that did you think that
israel was really
running the show because israel wanted
trump to win
so if israel was behind any mischief
either they didn't do anything
or they did something that wasn't as big
as the mischief from the other side
so can you rule out that israel has
that much power over the political
process of this country
i feel like if this if this holds
would be a pretty good example of how
they didn't get what they wanted
what would biden do with all these peace
deals that are happening in the middle
east would he reverse them and go
pro iran probably not
it's sort of too late for that isn't it
so the one thing you should wonder about
is if biden could do
any of the things that he says he wants
or would he be forced by circumstance
to simply do something very close to
what trump was doing
but you know put a new name on it and
try to pretend it's different
somebody says does israel really want
trump to win
i think yeah i think you could say that
with some confidence
yes uh arizona has two percent left to
count so that that wouldn't get it done
so that we have to assume that that goes
to biden
so let's let's say let's say biden
gets inaugurated and he becomes the
president
what will we say was the reason some of
you will say fraud
and you'll say that forever
i think you also have to look at the
social media companies
because at this point i don't know
if humans can overcome the algorithms
you know i call the algorithms
artificial intelligence
and i had said that whether trump wins
or loses
that he'll be the last human president
meaning that a.i if a.i
and the algorithms are what caused biden
to win and of course they did
of course they did right because the
stories that get promoted are the ones
that
influence so the algorithms
probably picked the president so so one
filter you could look at this
is that the the human activity was
somewhat irrelevant
because a.i caused us to do what we did
so it was really
in charge that's one way to look at it
the other way
is that the democrats just did a good
job
on everything they did a good job
getting in
more you know more people who would vote
their way into the country
did a better job of campaigning
controlled the media better
that's another way to look at it
somebody
some people say the ai is made by humans
scott
there is where you are completely uh
misled so yes it is true that the ai
is designed by humans but do you believe
that any humans
know what the ai will do
nope they don't now they do have the
power
to force the ai or the algorithm to do a
certain thing they have the power
but do you think that's how they
designed it do you think they designed
it so they know exactly what it's going
to do
i don't i think he has so many variables
that nobody who is human knows exactly
what the algorithm is going to do
they know what they programmed but they
don't know what it's going to do
and under that condition would you say
that the human is in charge
if they don't know what their creation
is going to do
suppose you built a frankenstein monster
you're in charge of the monster right so
then do you control the monster after it
leaves your laboratory and starts
destroying the town
could you say hey dr frankenstein
stop your monster i mean you're the
human you made it
so you're in control right it doesn't
work that way
once the frankenstein leaves the
laboratory which is what
the algorithms are they're frankenstein
outside the laboratory
the the coder or dr frankenstein can't
control it anymore
so when you say humans make the ai
true but a human makes doc
dr frankenstein's human and he made the
frankenstein monster
but he doesn't control it after it
leaves the laboratory
um
all right um
can't there be overfitting
somebody says the media stole the
election i would say that's
true if you were to look at biden voters
and ask them you know what do they think
is true
they would just say hoax after hoax
after hoax so
biden is elected on a hoax basically and
i would say that
you know people ask me what scott why
did you try so hard to
debunk the fine people hoax and the
answer was that it's the ten
pole hoax all the other hoaxes
depend on you thinking that one really
happened because if you think well that
one's proven
if you think it happened it didn't but
if you think you did then you start
thinking well the other unproven ones
probably true because this one was
proven
so that kind of makes me think the other
ones are true
and i think biden with the help of the
media sold it as true enough
that i'm sure it changed the result i
mean there was a reason that he led with
it all the time
in his campaign i would imagine that
they do
research on that stuff right don't you
think that
biden's campaign stump speech
was a whole bunch of poll tested points
so they they knew that the
charlottesville thing
had an impact i don't think he would
have led with it consistently
if they hadn't tested it to know that it
made a difference
so probably the fine people hoax made
him president
i mean that's an irrational thing to say
because in these situations that are
complicated and there are so many
variables if you change
any of them you get a different result
so you could say
it was foreign interference
because that was one percent of the
difference you could say it was the fine
people oaks
because that was one percent of the
difference and you know it was only
a one percent kind of vote so you could
always say that there was something that
was the difference
but really everything had to be the way
it is or you wouldn't get this result
all right somebody says biden's not
elected yet
yeah i suppose in the category of
anything could happen
um yeah the fine people hoax is still a
lie that's true
you know so here's here's the real
question will biden getting elected
will it um will it cause
less violence in the streets what do you
think
do you think that the riots will just
stop and i'm wondering if this isn't the
very best
situation for um
republicans and they don't realize it
because
the rioters really needed
a solid trump victory in order to be
activated
but what if they just think well i don't
know what's happening yet
uh i feel like looting but
the trigger wasn't there so
do i take the day off i don't know what
to do
and quite literally i don't think they
know what to do
so somebody says that biden president
means more violence
in the streets well do you think that
democratic mayors could get tougher with
the
protesters if they had a democratic
president
maybe maybe it's a nixon goes to
china's situation and suddenly all the
democratic mayors could get tough
because hey they're not trying to show
that trump is
orange man bad we shall see
so i'm seeing some people say the riots
will stop immediately
if they do you really gotta wonder about
stuff
yeah i don't i don't see any energy
whatsoever
for republicans to take over now what do
you think about
uh trump leaving office
if let's say he goes through his legal
challenges and they don't work
or he he uses the system as well as he
can but he can't get a different result
do you think there's any chance that
trump would try to stay in office
if he had exhausted his appeals i don't
think so
i think the odds of that are zero
not even you know one percent i think
it's zero
uh but what if it's inauguration day
and there's still an open question of
massive fraud
what then what then indeed
well i think that the uh with the help
of the media
the media can simply sell a biden
victory
no matter how much fraud was involved
and the public will
enough of the public will accept it so
that looks like the direction we're
going now
because it's 2020 you cannot rule out
another surprise and the other surprise
would be
some easy to prove
fraud so
what do you think of the odds that the
trump administration will be able to
point to something
specific you know not just a general hey
i don't like these mail-in ballots but
something like that has a video
or a witness or or something you could
just look at
and you know it's fraud what are the
odds of something like that
will emerge in the next i don't know 48
hours or a week or whatever
pretty high right pretty high
because when you need a when you need a
fraud
you can always find one i feel i feel
like it doesn't
doesn't take much work to find a fraud
in any of these situations
yeah according to the constitution
somebody's saying pelosi is
third in line so even pelosi could get
into the
the work here all right um
let's see and pelosi actually lost
democrats in the house so if you're
looking at how bad the polling was
look at how bad
well i mean they got everything wrong
right so the polls thought that the
house would pick up democrats it didn't
it thought that the senate would flip it
didn't
and certainly thought that the
presidential election
would be you know an overwhelming biden
victory
but it wasn't so the polls were
quite quite off and everything that
mattered
so in a little side story uh
oregon became the first state to
decriminalize hard drugs
that it's like a little side story that
is sort of big
so they decriminalized heroin cocaine
and meth
wow um and by a pretty solid vote
people really wanted that and i guess
they're replacing that
with some kind of humane cost-effective
health approach
i am very much in favor of this it would
have been a mistake
for the entire country to do this all at
the same time
but remember what i tell you about
anything that you can test
locally or small you should if you think
if you think it might work give it a
test but test is small
so you don't ruin the whole country so
now oregon
is going to give us some data that will
be really useful
and i would say that addiction is maybe
the biggest problem in the country right
now
so if they can get any any kind of
progress on that that would be a big
deal
by the way if if trump did lose and does
lose
it's going to be because of healthcare
and coronavirus don't you think
i mean those will kind of be the reasons
um here is a
oh so here's a phrase that you might
hear
this is from ross garber on twitter
who's got some credentials and he says
unless the vote is close enough
there's no chance for the lawyers to
kick a legal field goal
unless it's close enough all right so
far too many uncounted ballots in too
many key places
keep an eye on what he calls the margin
of litigation
all right so i think maybe he said
something wrong in his tweet but what i
take as
his meaning is that if the distance
if the final count between biden
and trump is small it might be a small
enough distance
that a successful litigation of
something specific
say one state or one metropolitan area
might be enough to overturn it but
if the biden gap is bigger
then even if you have a successful
litigation of some sort
you might not change anything enough to
close that gap
so you might hear this phrase the margin
of litigation
is he close enough that a legal
challenge could make a difference
um don't you think you would find
some pleasure if you're a trump
supporter and it turns out biden
is is the winner would you find some
pleasure
in watching the squad tear him apart
because because he's going to get i mean
he'll just
it'll be ripped down to the bone i think
by the progressives
so watching that will sort of be fun
um and it looks like
if biden is president all of the russia
collusion
coup people will go free we'll stay free
i guess
so it looks like crime pays so far
so far i would say we have strong
evidence that crime pays
and that the coup attempt with the
russia collusion hoax
looks like nobody's going to get
punished for that looks like that was
just a free slap
and and it will actually uh be part of
what causes biden to win
so i would say that that just sort of
worked it just didn't work the year that
they wanted to work
but it had a spillover effect into this
election for sure
somebody says trump tweets are being
filtered by
twitter again well anything where he
claims
victory is going to get filtered
uh will will trump's crimes pay well i
don't know of any trump crimes
all right um
the the hardest part about this will be
all of the
gloating democrats so i might have to
take a uh
social media holiday just just until
they get less excited
somebody's telling me to look at trump's
newest tweets i don't know if those are
the ones i
just looked at but let's see um
oh there's one that's being
filtered oh
so matt walsh has tweeted something that
uh twitter is
trying very hard for me not to see so
i'm at my second level of warning here
and so matt walsh says this is reason
enough to go to court
no honest person can look at this and
say it's normal and unconcerning and the
way he's talking about
is this uh idea that michigan
went up 128 000 votes for biden with
no extra votes for trump at the same
time
so i believe that's the claim that the
key state
of michigan had an unexpected surge in
votes
and conservatives are pointing it out
and trump is saying what is this all
about in caps
now remember i told you that the odds of
finding
something irregular is kind of a hundred
percent
now suppose suppose this is fraud
now i think the greater odds are always
that it's not
right if you're going to bet on it
they'll probably bet that it's not
but you certainly have to ask the
question
why does it look like that i think if
you dig down you'll find out that
there's more
more to it and maybe it's not what it
looks like but it could be
it could be i'm not saying it's not
fraud
it certainly has all of the telltale
signs of fraud
if you were going to do fraud it would
look sort of like this
so the question has to be asked and
answered but that doesn't mean
it's what you think it is um
and then what else has he got here let's
see yeah and then
then the president retweeted someone
else talking about this 128
000 votes in michigan you know
one way this could go quite easily
what if he challenges just that and it's
enough
so so already
already you can see the wisdom of
ross garber's comment about the margin
of litigation
so somebody tell me because i don't know
if
trump challenged just that 128 000
votes that looked sort of suspicious
because 100
of them went to biden if he challenged
just that
and he succeeded would it change the
result
is he within the margin of litigation
as ross garber says i don't know
i don't know if this could be more
interesting or more frustrating
if if you tried how in the world did
this simple process that has worked for
hundreds of years
become this complicated
um and
could you ever be convinced that it
wasn't fraud
if it turns out that the basic facts
being alleged are true
let's say it's true that 128
000 votes appeared suddenly and a
hundred percent of them were biden
and that's the story if that was the
final story
and we never got any deeper explanation
would you accept this election as valid
i don't know to me it would depend a
little bit about whether that one
change would would change the result if
it would
well if it would you got some real
questions there
somebody says please don't have a
defeatist attitude about this
well it's not defeatist uh
i would say that the odds of a
of a challenge that's got some meat to
it is pretty good
i don't know if that wins the day but
there's a pretty good chance the
president has a
as a case and if he could find a way to
get that case to the supreme court
does he have an advantage because of his
conservative judges
maybe
so somebody says kudos on uh and
keeping going today well let me ask you
people how do you feel
how do you feel today now of course you
feel uncertainty and
stomach aches and all that but
is your life ruined will your food taste
differently today
will you will your job change for most
of you
you're not going to be able to tell the
difference frankly for some
of us it will be a life-changing event
if biden gets in and gets his tax plan
for example
people like me have to make some real
decisions about
literally leaving the country because
the tax rate that
biden has proposed
is confiscatory if i think that's a word
right confiscatory meaning that
i made my money under a certain set of
rules in other words capitalism and the
government said here are your rules
if you follow these rules and make some
money you get to keep it
that's what i thought were the rules if
i follow all of your
constitutional rules and your laws and i
make a bunch of money
and i live in the united states i get to
keep it
i thought that was the deal now if i had
been told from the beginning
you know you can make as much money as
you want but you're going to have to
give
65 of it to the government and by the
way that's
low the 65 of it is just your regular
taxes
if you're in a high tax zone i would
also
be paying property tax i'd also be
paying sales tax
so my effective tax rate if you take all
of my taxes
under biden might be 75
i might get to keep 25 percent of every
dollar i earn
that's enough to make you look at
another country
but it isn't that easy to just move to
another country and avoid taxes you got
to
give up your citizenship and it's not
easy
so it's no it's no easy deal just to
move somewhere else
it's it's not something you can do plus
you want to live in the country with the
biggest military
you know you don't want to live in the
little island that can be conquered by
just about anybody who wants to
i don't want to live on a little island
that can be destroyed by a hurricane
either
so it's hard to move out of the united
states it's a little bit of a network
effect if you know what i mean
somebody says they won't let you go
um oh somebody says the market is up
is it let's see so
markets like certainty so
amazon is way up well that's interesting
um bitcoin has been having a run
so that's staying solid the
the broader market is up solidly
apple's way up israel's up
the i've got a fund of stocks in israel
and that's way up
um interesting
what the hell okay
um
i'm just looking at a comment uh did you
notice they changed the way
we voted at the last minute
just looking at your comments
somebody says it's stupid to leave stay
and fight
yeah i don't think taxes will
go the direction of the biden tax plan
i think that if there's a republican
senate
and the democrats want to stay in power
for a while that they probably can't do
that
the wan is tanking again interesting
what what is the betting market has gone
biden right
the betting market has gone completely
biden so
somebody asked me about simulation
theory so let me
let me put this in a frame you've heard
before
if this is a simulation and
as i've said there's a tendency for life
to follow the path of the best movie
what would be the best movie
think about it if this were a movie and
everything that had happened
up to this point is what happened in the
movie what would be the movie ending
do you know what it would be the movie
ending
would be finding out that those michigan
votes were fraudulent
and that and this is the third act
because the point of the third act is
that you're supposed to feel
as if it's over like you're actually
supposed to think okay
seriously no joking aside
it's done now it's a little bit how you
might have felt the day the
access hollywood tape came out right
before the
2016 election when i heard that
my feeling was the first time i heard it
i came out of it
but the first time i heard that i said
that's it
there isn't any way anybody in the world
can recover from this excess hollywood
tape
now it took me a few days to realize
that wasn't the case and came back to
predicting trump would win but that was
the third act
in my opinion that was the point where
even the biggest believer
the biggest optimist capitulates
and says all right all right there's
just no hope
there's no hope left and then
the hero pulls out a victory
in a way that was completely unexpected
and the obvious way that would happen
would be to find out that there was some
fraud that changed the election
and find out in time to reverse the
outcome
so this will be a good test of the
simulation slash movie hypothesis
this the the movie simulation theory
suggests that trump will reverse uh
reverse some of the votes
now if i said to you there's a there's a
presidential candidate and he's going to
challenge the votes
and he's going to have them reversed and
it will be enough of them
that it changes the election what would
you say in general
in general you'd say i don't think so i
don't know if any president who's ever
done that
but it's trump
trump consistently does things you
didn't think were possible
i don't have to do the list you've seen
the list but you know he's
he's finding peace in the middle east he
consistently does the thing you think i
don't think anybody could do oh he just
did it
so if you say to me the only way he
could win
is to do this highly unlikely play
of getting a bunch of votes tossed out
very
unlikely that anybody could succeed at
that
but it's 2020. and it's trump
he could i'm not i'm not going to
predict it
i'm going to say that if the movie
filter holds
this was the third act and i have to say
that there was nothing that happened
before this
that felt completely third acne
the other things that have happened
before this seemed big but they didn't
quite seem like a crushing final blow
today's vote count feels like a
crushing final blow doesn't it so that's
either real
or it's the third act we'll find out
somebody says trump should pardon hunter
i don't know what good that is
uh somebody says they prefer the low
budget movie where nevada turns red in a
few hours somehow
yeah maybe um so the slaughter meter
at least in terms of the vote i would
say is pretty close to zero
so in terms of winning it on the first
count
i would say the odds of trump winning it
just because the votes came in his way
is pretty close to zero at this point
the odds of
prevailing in the long run
still exist meaning that uh when he digs
into this
michigan vote count there might be
something there
i'd bet against it there might be
something there
so we'll find out all right um
this is what we know so far
it's so 2020 uh
that it that it it couldn't be more
2020.
so we'll find out what's what and we'll
find out uh
if there's any room for this to change
and i will talk to you
soon
