Episode 1311 Scott Adams - Biden Boring Speech, Israel Solves Water Shortages, George Floyd Strategy

well it's the best part of the day again isn't it great that you get one of these every day yeah you wake up and next thing you know you're having a simultaneous sip and you're thinking wow this is great and it is every single time and to make it even greater all you need is a couple of more glasses thank you to dallastine canxida flask vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid i like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure the dopamine hit of the day the thing that makes everything better it's called the simultaneous sip and watch how good this is you ready go yeah i don't think i oversold it that was pretty spectacular well should we start with the good news that nobody seems to be reporting when i say nobody i mean nobody except jake novak who put together three facts that i was not aware of uh and when you see them together it's quite a story and the facts are these number one an israeli company has built these devices that can extract drinking water from the air so it will take the humidity the moisture in the air and it very effectively turns it into water up to 800 liters of fresh water per day if the devices i saw in the picture are the right devices it looks like maybe the size of i don't know two or three refrigerators put together so it's not a it's not like a factory sized it's something you could put on trucks i think and they must have they must have figured out some way to make this more efficient likewise you may be aware that israel had offered to iran i believe to help them with desalinization because israel is good on desalinization they need to be because they need to get water wherever they can um but then there was a third thing that jake novak pointed out you should follow him on twitter by the way um that there's another israeli company that developed a drip irrigation system for growing rice so you don't have to flood the rice paddies so so those are the three things desalinization taking water directly from the air in some new efficient way better than before i guess and then a way to do agriculture with way less water some kind of a drip irrigation system so you take those things three things collectively and uh that's a pretty big deal you know you you don't see them all at the same time so you sort of lose sight of the fact that while we were thinking about other things israel used technology basically in science to solve one of the biggest problems in the world that we might run out of fresh water now think about your 80-year product projections for climate change what is one of the base assumptions of of the the assumption that climate change will be devastating in the future well the problem is that things that are working now will break such as people who have access to water might have droughts in the future and other people might have floods and i've been saying forever that you can't do that kind of a 80-year projection because there would be too many inventions and surprises along the way you can't predict that stuff well here's one in in what part of the 80-year projection of you know water needs and and climate change and all that where did they calculate the israel would pioneer yeah or or improve three major uses of water and actually create it in the sky more efficiently so that's all good news i'll put that out there i noticed today that uh one of the one of the trending things on twitter most of the morning was the phrase dementia joe so of course i clicked on it to see what that was all about and one of the things i noticed is that uh i guess a number of conservatives are using it uh to refer to joe in his speech etc but democrats really don't like this hashtag which is partly why it was trending because they were they were fighting against it so much it just made it true but um that's an interesting thing isn't it why is it that of all the things that anybody can say about biden this one you could tell by the comments it sort of sort of hit a nerve somehow whereas normal political speech doesn't always hit a nerve it's just more routine and i feel as if there's a thing happening now and it's happening in slow motion and it's hilarious because we can't really talk about it exactly and it goes like this all the people who supported biden for president had to mentally do something to be okay with the fact that quite obviously he wasn't as sharp as he used to be now i imagine that the way they dealt with it is either to just not think about it because all they cared about is getting rid of trump or they met they minimized it in their minds to the point of well yeah okay he's he's older but it's not that big a deal but the predictable the predictable arc of things is that it's just going to get more and more obvious 51 days without a press conference 51 days without a press conference it's kind of obvious now and then you see all the the gaff clips etc so i feel as if the democrats are feeling exposed meaning that it's going to look like everything that conservatives said about joe biden's mental capacity is not just true but it's really really obviously true and it matters how are they going to deal with that how does anybody deal with being wrong well most of us do it the same way we we get triggered into cognitive dissonance and then we somehow explain it like it wasn't wrong even if it was so uh i'll just note that dementia joe seems to really get under their their skin in case you want to use that now the democrats are trying to respond with their own hashtag which is getting a lot of use damn straight and a number of tweets to say stuff like we finally got a real president damn straight so i don't know i think damn straight is in the category of no malarkey it's like people coming up with slogans who are not good at coming up with slogans damn straight how does that how does that hit you it just feels a little cringy doesn't it yeah okay if somebody was actually typing cringe as i said it it's a little bit cringy compare that to make america great again now i know people had their problems with it thinking it was some kind of a racial thing but in terms of coming up with a slogan or you know a branding when you see when you start to see people were not good at it do it directly after you've watched trump be really really good at it like as good maybe better than anybody's ever been right if you count all his nicknames you know everything from low energy to you know lie and ted to you know if you kill all of that trump was basically hitting home runs every time he got up to bat you know drain the swamp almost everything that trump tried to turn into a a saying or a logo or a statement worked everything from fake news you name it he turned everything he wanted to turn into a you know into a thing he turned it into a thing but then you watch people who are not good at it damn straight damn straight it trended today but i don't think it's going to turn into anything it feels a little like no malarkey if you know what i mean people who don't know how to do this trying to do it uh this morning uh brian stelter uh tweeted he showed a screened screenshot that i've been laughing about for a while so apparently when biden was giving a speech if fox news ran a chiron the words that go at the bottom of the screen there they ran a chiron that said and what's funny about this is that this is a news channel and the the the amount of uh you know partisanship uh sometimes it crosses that line where you just have to laugh it's just hilarious so here here's fox news's label for biden's speech while he's talking so while he's talking below and it says low bar colon biden survives short scripted speech survives what kind of news is that he survives it because because it it gives you the impression especially because it's a you know allegedly a news channel it gives you the impression that there was some that there was some chance he would die right in front of you or that his career would be over because you know because you would be so undependable that you would just spout out with something crazy and it would be it would be over now let me say if cnn had done a chiron as ridiculous as this one i would have i would have also called it out right so this this works both ways but i have to give fox news credit because theirs is pretty funny i think if it's funny you get a little extra a little extra forgiveness right i feel like that fox news accomplished that so where whoever it is i know there's some fox news producer watching this right now but uh whoever it is was in charge of that chiron good job from an entertainment perspective it was a good job so here's the second part of that story so after i saw this and it was you know brian stelter from cnn talking about fox news and how they cover stuff i tweeted that 20 of all news involves people in the news business criticizing each other now when i said 20 that wasn't to be taken as an actual estimate right it's just that it seems like they spend a lot of time criticizing the other channel if you turn on fox news they're talking about cnn you turn on cnn they're talking about fox news and so uh so so i tweeted 20 of it is just that and within a few minutes brian stelter tweeted back uh at me and he said no it does not or i don't know you tweeted not necessarily at me uh and here's the thing when i'm using social media i forget sometimes especially if it's somebody famous who's you know like brian stelter or somebody you know i forget that they actually read it like somehow somehow my brain can't i can't handle the fact that i'm typing you know using a tool which of course the whole point of it is people are reading it and i still can't i can't get it in my head that when i type a response to somebody famous they'll actually read it it still blows me away and so when he when he tweeted back i was thinking oh we actually read that and um and i i understand when i do it why people are are so mean and ugly to me because every now and then i'll respond back to some troll who just said something awful about me and uh and sometimes they'll say something like whoa whoa i didn't think you'd read it so just remember there are real people reading this stuff uh jack pasabic reports that he's hearing from his multiple insider sources at the white house that kamala harris is getting the full uh the pdb what is that daily the um it's the briefing what does the pd stand for daily briefing presidential daily briefing i'm going to go with let's let's say that i'm going to say presidential daily briefing but caballeros is getting the full full one which even we think that even biden didn't get that when he was vice president now getting back to my earlier comments about how democrats are going to have to come to terms with the fact that they elected somebody who quite clearly is not medically fully available if you know what i mean and every time there's this little bit of you know the cats on the roof it seems like it's going forever isn't it like how long have we seen these cats on the roof like well it's a little bit of a hint that they're not expecting him to last that long even biden says stuff like he's not going to run for a second term etc so it's just funny every every time you see another another piece of evidence that it's clearly the plan to put her in place uh you just gotta wonder what they're thinking so i hear that comedians are having a hard time mocking biden because they don't have anything to grab onto you know trump was easy he had just a million targets that you could shoot at but biden is super boring and if you were to ask people what's the one sort of uh i don't know personality thing that stands out or or what do you think of when you think of joe biden what's the what's the top thing that comes to mind it's medical it's medical right is his mental capacity and it's not really super cool to make humor about people's medical conditions now i would think a president's a little bit of an exception to that because sometimes you have to mock things to get them fixed and maybe having a president who's not quite all there needs to get fixed so here's a special case but isn't it interesting that he's so bland the only thing you could mock you don't because it's real if don't you think that they would be mocking biden uh if they thought that wasn't real don't you think they'd be there would be more people on the even on the left who would take a run at it's like oh he's dumb hahaha you know hahaha he's not as fast as he used to be hahaha he does some gaffes but they don't really do that do they they don't really do that somebody says they mocked reagan um was reagan ever this bad you know i'm trying to remember yeah i think you could certainly detect there was something going on with reagan i don't think reagan was ever like this was he maybe i just don't remember it clearly all right uh so i watched let's talk about biden speech uh i might surprise you by saying i thought it was pretty good pretty good if i'm if i'm going to be objective which is the only value i have to you is trying to be unbiased if i can i thought his speech was pretty solid meaning that what he was trying to do was project empathy and he gave us some dates which i wanted i wanted to hear a date when he thinks he can get the vaccinations may first everybody should have access to it it's good um i'm seeing your comments about whether reagan was as bad a little bit of a disagreement about whether he was he was as bad some say yes some say no so i i don't have a strong memory of that at this point but uh so i'm going to give biden you know a solid a solid mark it was not exciting i literally started falling asleep toward the end it dragged on it was a little too long you know he's not like a great deliverer of anything but for what the country needed it was pretty solid good information fairly specific now the of course the thing that everybody's mocking is the uh i think everyone who watched this had some kind of similar feeling to it when he was saying that by fourth of july he's hoping that people can get together for their fourth of july barbecues and whatnot and then he slipped in but not large groups and i'm sitting here thinking what did you just say and and then he sort of i think he clarified again you know that you'd be able to have fourth of july but not in a large get-together to which i and something like 300 plus million americans or i don't know whatever tens of millions were watching the speech simultaneously said to themselves see if this happened in your head did you simultaneously all over the country say to yourself you you here's what's going to happen on july 4th i and every one of you are going to make your own mind up about what you're going to do and the government's instructions to you by july 4th because by then it's it's a different situation we hope by july 4th it's not the government's decision and even their suggestion will be taken as a suggestion all right by july people are going to do any thing they want and i don't think there's any any way around that now a lot of people will want to play a safe a lot of people will want to do what the government suggests because they want to that's fine but there was something about the way he presented it that carried with it a whiff of presumption that the government can tell you how to celebrate the 4th of july in your own backyard and that didn't go down well did it how'd that feel didn't feel good didn't feel good and and i've been quite supportive of the government having some you know a big hand in the pandemic i think sometimes the government needs to be the the one with a big hand or a big footprint i guess uh but that would be too far right there's a point where everybody says it's too far and and i think biden reached that so that's not the biggest problem in the world the the other thing about his speech is that there's a lot of darkness and gloom and it was kind of long and boring and low energy but it got the job done um here's a question i have for you if you believe that biden is doing a good job with pandemic management and i would say he is does anybody disagree with that is there any disagreement that biden is at the administration is doing a solid job with the uh i i i would fault him with school openings he should put more pressure on the teachers unions that's a big deal but i feel like i feel like it's you know happening like people are going back to school already vaccinations are looking pretty solid messaging looks pretty good i think it's solid but here's the question what is it that biden has done that the trump administration would not have you know predictably done so for example under under biden the rate of vaccinations is way up well don't you think that would have happened under trump as well because we know that however it starts it's going to be slow compared to you know how quickly it will ramp up so i don't see any reason that we should assume biden did a better job i don't see any evidence for that in fact trump might have put more pressure on teachers unions although that could have been counterproductive you could make an argument that if trump had gone harder at teachers unions they would have just hardened their their stand against him so it's hard to predict but i don't think there's any reason to think biden did a better job than trump would have if he had been in office um i tweeted yesterday something that i knew would get get people angry or bothered but there wouldn't be a reason which is my favorite kind of tweet where people would feel like they should be offended on behalf of somebody else they're not sure who and they're not sure exactly why but they're definitely offended if they can only figure out why here is my tweet um i i said that uh if i were the uh if i were the attorney defending uh derek chauvin the uh officer who is charged with uh now i guess second or third degree murder one of those murders i would say that i would deliver my closing argument laying on the ground if i were the lawyer laying on the ground and i would have my client put his knee on my neck much the way he did with george floyd and for the entire nine minutes i would time it so it was the same amount of time as as uh floyd was held down as the lawyer i would just speak normally and i would just have the you know i'd be on the ground with the officers now not officer but ex-officer's knee on my neck and i would say all right we've presented all the evidence and as you can see you know there's plenty of reasonable doubt the main reason that you uh and the world was so concerned is that the visual of this is just deeply disturbing but as you can see the reason that this is a legal hold and it's trained and the officers are trained this way is that if you do it right it doesn't put much pressure on the neck and as you can see i'm delivering my closing arguments completely without any air restricted and yet i can't move i can't get up can't get up now uh do you think people complained about that tweet oh yeah you always get this guy do you know who this guy is he's the he's the guy it's usually a guy it's usually a guy right i could be a woman i don't want to be sexist but it's usually a guy who comes in and says something like this a man died you're laughing and a man died this is not a joke you always need that guy right the guy to remind us that there was a tragedy is there anything that is more well understood than whatever the whatever that was it was a tragedy is there anybody who doesn't know that and here's the second part it wasn't a joke if you laughed on it if you laughed at it well that's sort of on you because it wasn't written as a joke it was written as a persuasion now of course i don't assume that the lawyer would do anything like that in order to do that you need a certain kind of personality let's say johnny cochran if johnny cochran cochran were alive and he heard that idea what do you think if johnny cochran heard that idea and he were the defense attorney just lay on the ground put the knee on you and do your closing argument just like that he would at least consider it now he might say no that's too far or whatever because you know clearly he was the highest level of defense attorney so he might say that's a bad idea for good reasons but i think he'd at least consider it i think he'd consider it i i feel as if he would give it a good thought and here's the thing there is nothing disrespectful about that nothing it's not even a little bit disrespectful it's persuasive i mean if it worked right now here i'm making a big assumption that i think is fair which is that if somebody has their is holding you down with that knee hold on your neck they probably have a lot of leeway in terms of how painful or damaging that is and i don't think you can tell just by looking at it on the video i don't think you could tell so it would be a it would be i don't know how they could possibly convict let me ask you this if you saw that closing argument and you watched it for nine minutes and you watched the lawyer talk normally could you convict because that that removes all the reasonable doubt i mean it's just gone at that point i would have done it all right there's a study in israel israel is in the news a lot that they think aspirin may protect against kovid they thought you know there's some evidence it does andre's back house commented on that to point out is a low quality study and i wouldn't start taking aspirin because number one you know i usually tell you don't get your medical advice from me but i'm actually going to give you medical advice right now don't start taking aspirin unless you talk to your doctor i feel that's safe right it feels like that's safe medical advice i used to take a baby aspirin every day because for i don't know decades i believe that the science said that it would protect you against strokes or heart attacks or something and so i'd take my little baby aspirin every single day the new science or at least the latest thinking is there's no indication whatsoever that the aspirin is going to protect you from any of that stuff and it might have some negative effects because aspirin is not exactly harmless so i wouldn't trust anything about an aspirin study just in general but not that one um here's an interesting thing to watch i've been asking the question who is the the conservative voice now because trump himself is sort of uh at the moment a little bit off the stage coincidentally rush limbaugh passed you would think of him as maybe the dominant voice in conservative politics so now the the two most dominant voices are out of the game and i was watching as uh um tucker carlson's show came on immediately after the biden speech and there's there's an interesting phenomenon you have to experience and maybe you did you probably did which is you watch the event yourself so you're watching the biden speech or any any other event and then you're forming an opinion and you're thinking oh i think this about it or that about it and then you see somebody like tucker carlson give you a very strong opinion and a take if you will how quickly does your sort of generic forming opinion start to match identically to tucker carlson's opinion because it's the first thing you heard while you were still trying to form your opinion and he is so certain when he speaks it's one of the things he does well he speaks with a kind of certainty that is very persuasive i felt you know i've told you before that we don't make up our own opinions on politics you think you do but you don't now i'm not saying that's a hundred percent true but it's close enough to 100 true that you can treat it that way meaning that whether you're on the left or the right if you were to look at your political opinion on any topic you will be amazed and surprised that it matches whoever you watch on tv the most most of the time it just matches who you watch on tv and it's because your opinion was assigned to you the people who are good at expressing things they express an opinion and then you just adopt it it's like oh that's a good way to think about it that's my opinion now but watching tucker carlson assign opinions to fox news viewers in real time was sort of mind-blowing and i watched that happen last night because i wanted to see i was sort of monitoring my own opinion to see when it got formed to yeah because i was i was feeling oh that's a sort of a boring good biden speech yeah he didn't hurt anybody didn't hurt himself got the job done and then as soon as i turn on tucker it's a it's a it's a dumpster fire and what he said about fourth of july is crazy i agree with him of course on the fourth of july stuff um but the other thing is that as somebody's saying in the comments part of what makes tucker so powerful is not just that other voices got decreased which is a big deal but that he's really good like really really good at his job and he seems to be getting better and at at his current age you know i'm not sure you'd expect his quality of production to just keep getting better but it is right in front of your eyes i i think he's unquestionably at his highest level of quality as well as importance you know his impact on the country so i feel as if he he just became the guy i feel as if you know if you've been looking for who's the the voice of the conservatives it feels like it's him it feels like it now not to say there aren't other voices but he does seem to have emerged as the the prime voice over in portland i guess there have been nightly protests and stuff for almost a year now um and there i read that some portland business owners are boarding up their businesses because they're expecting more trouble from everything from the george floyd stuff to who knows what i thought to myself there are still businesses in portland why would you stay in portland if if there were protests for a year i know it seems like that would be long enough to make other plans but it's hard to move a business i know but i can't believe there are any businesses left here's another compliment to the biden administration you didn't see this coming pete bootage as the transportation secretary is a really good choice he's a really good choice i don't know if you you remember but buddha judge's background is uh as a business consultant i mean that was his first role and you don't get the i was at bain i think you worked for but you don't get that kind of a job unless you're just crackling smart and you just came out of harvard usually as he did but the the thing that makes this perfect is that it's a purely um it's an analytical job oh mckinsey somebody's saying it was mckinsey that's right so he was a mckinsey consultant but he has exactly the right skill set exactly the right skill set for uh transportation and infrastructure because those are things that people sort of are more likely to agree on right we're a little bit closer on the need for an infrastructure packs package than we are for probably almost anything else he's perfect so you know i'm going to give the biden administration a an a-plus on that appointment we'll see if he delivers right he still has to deliver but that's a perfect fit of of training and competence with job um you're the astrazenecas vaccination some people thought it might cause blood clots but now they've looked at the data and they say nope no blood clots so that story about the vaccinations being a problem is fake news as far as we know there's still a lot of concern that people will not get the vaccinations because they're afraid of it or mostly they're afraid of it and i'm going to predict that in the end that won't be a problem my uh predictions last observation is that um because supply is limited that people's willingness to get the shot is going to match the supply all the way to the end meaning that um you'll get enough people vaccinated to get to wherever we need to get people like me are quickly saying they're skeptical until the last minute you should stay skeptical until you have a chance to get the shot and then take all the information that you have up to that point and make your decision but you don't need to make a decision until the shot's available something tells me that a lot of the people who are sort of talking about not getting the shot when they really really think it through and when they watch how many people have gotten the shot and it doesn't you they haven't heard that many stories of bad outcomes i feel as if um a lot of people are going to get the shot i think we'll get as many as we need i think we'll be fine there um here's my math question for you and i asked this this morning i got a number of answers and i'm still not sure of my opinion on it so help me form an opinion on it it goes like this if we had a normal virus that affected everybody about the same way every age group then we're told that getting to 60 70 percent herd immunity with vaccinations or prior infections that getting there would be enough to stop the stop the spread but what if you've got a weird virus that has a special characteristic that attacks let's say twenty percent of the population aggressively and eighty percent of the population hardly bothers them at all what happens if you can vaccinate almost all of that 20 percent well it won't stop the infection from spreading through the other 80 percent of course and that other 80 percent if they came in contact with the few people who didn't have it yet in that in the high risk group then those people could get it and die so but here's the question i'm just trying to think the the logical math of it through i do understand there's something uh andres backhouse said this morning on twitter that the rate of infection where it's been studied seems to be fairly similar with every age group i didn't know that until this morning so you can get infected at every age group which suggests that my idea doesn't make sense that if everybody's getting infected it's at least in that one sense it's like every other virus it's just the outcomes are different not the infection rate so but i haven't given up yet i feel as if just to help me think this through because i really too many variables here to quite grasp it but my my uh gut level uh statistical intuition which is very unreliable tells me that if you vaccinate let's say 80 percent of the high-risk people they tend to hang out with themselves don't they senior citizens are far more likely to have you know extended uh contact with other senior citizens they do have family contacts etc but and then kids mostly hang around with kids and under that scenario couldn't you not have heard immunity in the classic sense where the virus just stops but in a functional sense where once you've got the high-risk people done and the low-risk people are still getting infected but you don't care because they're not getting any bad outcomes don't you sort of reach something that's like a virtual herd effect except plenty of people are still getting infected it's just they're not dying so when we talk about herd immunity from a regular virus we're talking about the virus just stopping it just can't spread it just stops but maybe when we talk about herd immunity for this one what we should really be talking about is bringing the rate of risk down to whatever is a baseline normal risk of life and i feel like we're going to hit that really soon that's that's my uh statistical slash math intuition that we're going to hit it really soon like way before may i'm thinking i'm thinking april uh hospitalizations will be almost nothing um but their spread will still be widespread because the kids will still be giving it to kids et cetera it just won't we won't know about it so i am not convinced that i'm right there and i'll let me make another point about your skill stacks when i when i advise you to add uh additional talents to what you already have to make your stack of talents your talent stack as i like to say is special statistics is one of those things you should have on there now i've taken a course in statistics in in college but it was a million years ago i don't remember a lot of the math but you you can develop let's say a statistical intuition about things you can get to the point where you could look at say this aspirin study and say oh the number of people studied was small the way they studied it is not as as good statistically so you would just have an intuition that you shouldn't trust it necessarily and i think that's a really good thing to develop and you don't need to do all the math to do it just spend enough time looking at the illusions of statistics the things that you thought would be true but turned out if you do the math are not true every time you're fooled by statistics make a little note say oh yeah that's one of those situations where it looks like it could be the case but if you do the math it's opposite so develop try to develop some kind of like intuition about where things are credible and where they're not independent of having the math here's my most controversial idea of the day we know that china is sending fentanyl to the cartels and the cartels are packaging it up in in other in drugs that look like other kinds of drugs such as fake xanax shipping it to the united states and 50 to 70 000 americans per year are dying from this we believe that china is pursuing this you know total war idea where it is completely intentional and they could obviously stop it because we've actually told them the name of the person in china who's sending the fentanyl we know the name it's this guy china of course can find that guy right so there's no question about those two facts we've told them who it is who's the you know the fentanyl kingpin in china china knows where he is they could stop him does anybody doubt that they can stop that guy no of course not so we have to assume it's intentional and that they are killing 50 to 70 000 americans per year intentionally as a plan now that's war isn't it but given the nature of all the obstacles and variables in the world we can't just sort of attack china militarily we just do this weird thing where we demand that they stop and then they just don't because they don't have to apparently there's no penalty so to me it seems that mexico and the cartels are a combined allied military force in a war with the united states now we can't attack china because they have nukes and stuff but we can certainly attack their ally who holds territory and their allies hold the the border tele territory if you didn't know this the cartels actually are the government on the border literally they're the government the actual government wouldn't even be they would be too afraid to even go there because they would kill the actual government they're just not allowed so for all practical purposes mexico is not even on our border we don't have a mexican border but i'd like one let's see if we can get one so the way to get a mexican border for the first time is to get rid of this small let's say unlabeled country owned by the cartels different cartels but they have different parts of it right and i think that we should at least consider annexing that territory that mexico doesn't control now you would say to yourself whoa whoa you've gone way too far the government of mexico is never going to allow you to annex part of that territory to which i say wouldn't that be great wouldn't it be great if mexico surged their uh government military into that area to protect it from the united states annexing it that'd be fine then we don't have to annex it because if the mexican military tried to defend it they would move their military into that zone and that's all we wanted in the first place we want mexico to be on our border so if mexico wants to be on our border we'll help but of course the the real mexican government is afraid of the cartel as they should be so they they can't really do that so what would they do if we just annexed it just took it and said we're not taking it from mexico mexico doesn't own it and here's the best part if mexico wants it back they can have it just ask all you have to do is control it just move your military in control the border we'll give it right back to you you can have it back but if you don't want to do that it's not mexico and it's not the united states it's china and i don't want a border with china right now we have one they happen to be the cartel working with china but for all practical purposes we just got ourselves a border with china and they are invading and attacking over the border so i would treat it like a chinese military exercise and when mexico complains you say oh i hear you what you're saying but it's not really about us this isn't about the united states and mexico we don't have any complaints with mexico at all not the mexican government we have a complaint with china who is working with this cartel these cartels who own this territory this has nothing to do with you but if you would like it to be about you we would like that too you could join us but until then it's it's war with china and we'll just treat it that way in the comments somebody says this idea is so crazy it could work let me tell you about uh so crazy it could work that's exactly right that's exactly right the the idea is not so much that you would actually annex it but you would change the frame you would reframe the situation from an immigration problem a drug problem a crime problem because that's not getting us anywhere is it the way we cur we currently frame and think about the border is giving us nothing but worse problems if you reframe how you think about it that opens up options you don't necessarily know where that ends up it could end up with mexico just defending their own border better that'd be fine but the reframe just gets you out of the broken and bankrupt way of thinking the bankrupt way of thinking is that we have a crime immigration problem at the border that's just not what's going on what's going on is that china is attacking the united states right now successfully and we're not defending against an attack by china mexico you're just not part of the question i wish you were honestly i wish you were part of the question but you're not the cartels are all right um here's uh the most uh this will just make your head spin for a while i believe there's another sexual category and i'm just going to put this out there and then you won't you won't accept this at first but wait till you look into it okay some of you will be able to go home immediately and ask somebody for confirmation most of you won't but watch watch what happens when you do if you said to a let's say a teenage girl in the united states in 2021 so it's just a your average teenage girl and you say that teenage girl what is your uh your orientation they'll tell you they'll say i'm either straight or i'm gay or or i'm bi and they'll tell you just right now so at least in today's world uh i don't see at least nothing like it used to be in terms of anybody saying that they're gay or they're lesbian or anything else so the first thing that would be eye-opening is that a teenager today is far more likely to just you know be completely open about what their sexuality is here's the shocking part ask a ask a girl who identifies as heterosexual not bisexual they have to identify as heterosexual and then ask this question would you ever marry a woman there was a time if you ask somebody who identified as heterosexual would you ever marry somebody of the same gender they would have said well no what do you think heterosexual means that the whole point of heterosexual is no i'm i'm interested in the other gender not today if you if you ask a teenage girl today would are you heterosexual she says yes totally heterosexual i'm not bi at all but would you marry a woman if you fell in love they will say yes and won't even blink at it it's it's kind of interesting it's it's neither good nor bad i'm not putting any kind of judgment on it it's just a an evolution that's sort of fascinating to watch now i don't think that men would answer the same i don't think a teenage boy who identified as heterosexual if you ask would you ever marry another man probably would say no you know in 2021 still probably not everyone but more more often uh somebody's asking the question what would happen if you asked a let's say a teenage white girl if she would marry a black person i've i've heard teenagers discussing that very question and 100 of them said yes and there were more people who say they prefer it in fact several said they prefer it but i've never heard anybody in uh in the modern era say that they wouldn't i haven't heard it so i don't think there's anybody at least maybe this is a california thing so it could be really different where you live california tends to be five to ten years ahead of some of these things um somebody says would you stay with a spouse who changes uh their gender i think it depends it depends right there's no there's no one answer to that that would depend on the two people uh when are you in the company of teenagers well i don't hang with teenagers but uh let's say if you have a a family situation you're exposed to them whether you like it or not so the the answer is through family connections um but i'm not talking about anybody in my family i'm talking about a general statement if you ask a personal question to a group you'll get a peer answer yeah yeah i think so um yeah i'm just looking at your comments okay well i didn't know if that would be surprising to many of you or not it's a sign of the times probably a good one good sign of the times because the the teens the teens are definitely woke there's no doubt about that and that's not all bad all right that's all for now and i'll talk to you later all right um your teens are not woke all right that's all for now i will uh talk to you tomorrow too

well it's the best part of the day again

isn't it great that you get one of these

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yeah you wake up and next thing you know

you're having a simultaneous sip and

you're thinking

wow this is great and it is every single

time

and to make it even greater all you need

is a couple of more glasses thank you to

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fill it with your favorite liquid i like

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the dopamine hit of the day the thing

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watch how good this is

you ready go

yeah i don't think i oversold it

that was pretty spectacular well

should we start with the good news that

nobody seems to be reporting

when i say nobody i mean nobody except

jake novak

who put together three facts that i was

not aware of

uh and when you see them together it's

quite a story

and the facts are these number one

an israeli company has built these

devices that can extract

drinking water from the air so it will

take the humidity the moisture in the

air

and it very effectively turns it into

water

up to 800 liters of fresh water per day

if the devices i saw in the picture are

the right devices

it looks like maybe the size of i don't

know

two or three refrigerators put together

so it's not a

it's not like a factory sized it's

something you could put on trucks i

think

and they must have they must have

figured out

some way to make this more efficient

likewise you may be aware that israel

had

offered to iran i believe to help them

with desalinization

because israel is good on desalinization

they need to be

because they need to get water wherever

they can um but then there was a third

thing that

jake novak pointed out you should follow

him on twitter by the way

um that there's another israeli company

that developed a drip

irrigation system for growing rice

so you don't have to flood the rice

paddies

so so those are the three things

desalinization

taking water directly from the air in

some new efficient way

better than before i guess and then a

way to do agriculture with way less

water some kind of a drip irrigation

system

so you take those things three things

collectively

and uh that's a pretty big deal

you know you you don't see them all at

the same time

so you sort of lose sight of the fact

that while we were thinking about other

things

israel used technology basically in

science

to solve one of the biggest problems in

the world that we might run

out of fresh water now think about

your 80-year product projections for

climate change what is one of the base

assumptions of

of the the assumption that climate

change will

be devastating in the future well the

problem is that

things that are working now will break

such as

people who have access to water might

have droughts

in the future and other people might

have floods

and i've been saying forever that you

can't do that kind of a

80-year projection because there would

be too many inventions and surprises

along the way

you can't predict that stuff well here's

one

in in what part of the 80-year

projection of you know water needs and

and climate change and all that where

did they calculate the israel

would pioneer yeah or or improve

three major uses of water and actually

create it in the sky

more efficiently so that's all good news

i'll put that out there i noticed today

that uh one of the

one of the trending things on twitter

most of the morning

was the phrase dementia joe

so of course i clicked on it to see what

that was all about

and one of the things i noticed is that

uh i guess a number of conservatives are

using it

uh to refer to joe in his speech etc

but democrats really don't like this

hashtag

which is partly why it was trending

because they were they were fighting

against it so much it just made it

true but um

that's an interesting thing isn't it why

is it that of all the things that

anybody can say about biden this one

you could tell by the comments it sort

of sort of

hit a nerve somehow whereas

normal political speech doesn't always

hit a nerve it's just

more routine and i feel as if there's a

thing

happening now and it's happening in slow

motion

and it's hilarious

because we can't really talk about it

exactly

and it goes like this all the people who

supported biden

for president had to

mentally do something to be okay with

the fact that

quite obviously he wasn't as sharp as he

used to be

now i imagine that the way they dealt

with it is either to

just not think about it because all they

cared about is getting rid of trump

or they met they minimized it in their

minds

to the point of well yeah okay he's

he's older but it's not that big a deal

but the predictable the predictable arc

of things

is that it's just going to get more and

more obvious

51 days without a press conference

51 days without a press conference it's

kind of

obvious now and then you see all the the

gaff clips etc

so i feel as if the democrats are

feeling exposed meaning that

it's going to look like everything that

conservatives said about joe biden's

mental capacity

is not just true but it's really really

obviously true and it matters

how are they going to deal with that how

does anybody deal with being wrong

well most of us do it the same way we we

get triggered into cognitive dissonance

and then we somehow explain it like it

wasn't wrong

even if it was so

uh i'll just note that dementia joe

seems to really get under their

their skin in case you want to use that

now the democrats are trying to

respond with their own hashtag which is

getting a lot of use

damn straight and a

number of tweets to say stuff like we

finally got a real president

damn straight so

i don't know i think damn straight is in

the category of

no malarkey it's like people coming up

with slogans

who are not good at coming up with

slogans

damn straight how does that

how does that hit you it just feels

a little cringy doesn't it yeah okay if

somebody was actually typing cringe

as i said it it's a little bit cringy

compare that to make america great again

now i know people had their problems

with it thinking it was some kind of a

racial thing

but in terms of coming up with a slogan

or you know a branding when you see

when you start to see people were not

good at it

do it directly after you've watched

trump be really really good at it

like as good maybe better than anybody's

ever been

right if you count all his nicknames you

know everything from

low energy to you know lie and ted to

you know if you kill all of that

trump was basically hitting home runs

every time he got up to bat

you know drain the swamp almost

everything that trump

tried to turn into a a saying or a logo

or a statement worked everything from

fake news you name it he turned

everything he wanted to turn into a you

know into a thing

he turned it into a thing but then you

watch people who

are not good at it damn straight

damn straight it trended today

but i don't think it's going to turn

into anything it feels a little like no

malarkey

if you know what i mean people who don't

know how to do this

trying to do it

uh this morning uh brian stelter uh

tweeted he showed a screened screenshot

that i've been laughing about for a

while so apparently when biden was

giving a speech if fox news

ran a chiron the words that go at the

bottom of the screen there

they ran a chiron that said

and what's funny about this is that this

is a news channel

and the the the amount of

uh you know partisanship uh

sometimes it crosses that line where you

just have to laugh it's just hilarious

so here here's fox news's label for

biden's speech while he's talking

so while he's talking below and it says

low bar

colon biden survives short scripted

speech

survives what kind of news is that

he survives it

because because it it gives you the

impression

especially because it's a you know

allegedly a news channel

it gives you the impression that there

was some

that there was some chance he would die

right in front of you

or that his career would be over because

you know

because you would be so undependable

that you would just spout out with

something crazy and it would be it would

be over

now let me say if cnn

had done a chiron as ridiculous as this

one

i would have i would have also called it

out right

so this this works both ways but i have

to give fox news credit

because theirs is pretty funny i think

if it's

funny you get a little extra

a little extra forgiveness right

i feel like that fox news accomplished

that so where

whoever it is i know there's some fox

news producer watching this right now

but uh whoever it is was in charge of

that chiron

good job from an entertainment

perspective it was a good job

so here's the second part of that story

so after i saw this

and it was you know brian stelter from

cnn talking about fox news and how they

cover stuff

i tweeted that 20 of all news involves

people in the news business

criticizing each other now

when i said 20 that wasn't to be taken

as an

actual estimate right it's just that it

seems like they spend a lot of time

criticizing the other channel if you

turn on fox news they're talking about

cnn you turn on cnn

they're talking about fox news and

so uh so so i tweeted 20 of it is just

that

and within a few minutes brian stelter

tweeted back

uh at me and he said no it does not

or i don't know you tweeted not

necessarily at me

uh and here's the thing

when i'm using social media

i forget sometimes

especially if it's somebody famous who's

you know like brian stelter or somebody

you know

i forget that they actually read it like

somehow

somehow my brain can't i can't handle

the fact

that i'm typing you know using a tool

which of course

the whole point of it is people are

reading it

and i still can't i can't get it in my

head

that when i type a response to somebody

famous they'll actually read it

it still blows me away and so when he

when he tweeted back i was thinking

oh we actually read that

and um

and i i understand when i do it

why people are are so mean and ugly to

me

because every now and then i'll respond

back to some troll who just said

something awful about me

and uh and sometimes they'll say

something like whoa whoa i didn't think

you'd read it

[Laughter]

so just remember there are real people

reading this stuff

uh jack pasabic

reports that he's hearing from his

multiple

insider sources at the white house that

kamala harris is getting the full uh the

pdb

what is that daily the um

it's the briefing what does the pd stand

for

daily briefing presidential daily

briefing i'm going to go with

let's let's say that i'm going to say

presidential daily briefing

but caballeros is getting the full full

one

which even we think that even biden

didn't get that

when he was vice president now

getting back to my earlier comments

about how democrats are going to have to

come to terms with the fact that they

elected somebody

who quite clearly is not medically

fully available if you know what i mean

and every time there's this little bit

of

you know the cats on the roof it seems

like it's going forever isn't it

like how long have we seen these cats on

the roof like well it's a little bit of

a hint

that they're not expecting him to last

that long even biden says stuff like

he's not going to run for a second term

etc so

it's just funny every every time you see

another another piece of evidence

that it's clearly the plan to put her in

place

uh you just gotta wonder what they're

thinking

so i hear that comedians are having a

hard time mocking

biden because they don't have anything

to grab onto

you know trump was easy he had just a

million targets that you could shoot at

but biden is super boring

and if you were to ask people what's the

one

sort of uh i don't know personality

thing that stands out or

or what do you think of when you think

of joe biden what's the what's the top

thing that comes to mind

it's medical it's medical

right is his mental capacity and it's

not

really super cool

to make humor about people's medical

conditions

now i would think a president's a little

bit of an exception to that because

sometimes you have to mock things to get

them fixed

and maybe having a president who's not

quite all there needs to get fixed

so here's a special case

but isn't it interesting that he's so

bland

the only thing you could mock you don't

because it's real if

don't you think that they would be

mocking biden uh

if they thought that wasn't real don't

you think they'd be

there would be more people on the even

on the left who would take a run

at it's like oh he's dumb hahaha you

know

hahaha he's not as fast as he used to be

hahaha he does some gaffes

but they don't really do that do they

they don't really do that somebody says

they mocked

reagan um was reagan ever this bad

you know i'm trying to remember yeah i

think you could certainly detect

there was something going on with reagan

i don't think reagan was ever like this

was he

maybe i just don't remember it clearly

all right uh so i watched let's talk

about biden speech

uh i might surprise you by saying i

thought it was

pretty good pretty good if i'm if i'm

going to be objective

which is the only value i have to you is

trying to be

unbiased if i can i thought his speech

was pretty solid

meaning that what he was trying to do

was project empathy

and he gave us some dates which i wanted

i wanted to hear a date when he thinks

he can get the vaccinations may first

everybody should

have access to it it's good um

i'm seeing your comments about whether

reagan was as bad a little bit of a

disagreement about whether he was he was

as bad some say yes some say no

so i i don't have a strong memory of

that at this point

but uh so i'm going to give biden you

know a solid

a solid mark it was not exciting i

literally

started falling asleep toward the end it

dragged on it was a little too long

you know he's not like a great deliverer

of anything

but for what the country needed it was

pretty solid

good information fairly specific

now the of course the thing that

everybody's mocking

is the uh

i think everyone who watched this had

some kind of similar feeling to it

when he was saying that by fourth of

july he's hoping that people

can get together for their fourth of

july barbecues and whatnot

and then he slipped in but not large

groups

and i'm sitting here thinking what did

you just say

and and then he sort of i think he

clarified again you know that

you'd be able to have fourth of july but

not in a large get-together

to which i and something like 300 plus

million americans or i don't know

whatever tens of millions were watching

the

speech simultaneously said to themselves

see if this happened in your head did

you simultaneously all over the country

say to yourself you

you here's what's going to happen

on july 4th

i and every one of you are going to make

your own mind up about what

you're going to do

and the government's instructions to you

by july 4th

because by then it's it's a different

situation we hope by july 4th

it's not the government's decision

and even their suggestion will be taken

as

a suggestion all right

by july people are going to do any

thing they want

and i don't think there's any any way

around that

now a lot of people will want to play a

safe a lot of people will want to do

what the government

suggests because they want to that's

fine but

there was something about the way he

presented it

that carried with it a whiff of

presumption

that the government can tell you how to

celebrate the 4th of july in your own

backyard

and that didn't go down well did it

how'd that feel didn't feel good

didn't feel good and and i've been quite

supportive of the government having some

you know a big hand in the pandemic

i think sometimes the government needs

to be the the one with a big hand or a

big footprint i guess

uh but that would be too far right

there's a point where everybody says

it's too far and

and i think biden reached that so that's

not the biggest problem in the world

the the other thing about his speech is

that there's a lot of darkness and gloom

and

it was kind of long and boring and low

energy but

it got the job done um here's a question

i have for you

if you believe that biden is doing a

good job

with pandemic management and i would say

he is

does anybody disagree with that is there

any disagreement

that biden is at the administration is

doing a

solid job with the uh i

i i would fault him with school openings

he should put more pressure on the

teachers unions

that's a big deal but i feel like i feel

like it's

you know happening like people are going

back to school already

vaccinations are looking pretty solid

messaging looks pretty good

i think it's solid but here's the

question what is it that biden has done

that the trump administration would not

have

you know predictably done so for example

under

under biden the rate of vaccinations is

way up

well don't you think that would have

happened under trump as well

because we know that however it starts

it's going to be slow compared to

you know how quickly it will ramp up

so i don't see any reason that we should

assume biden did a better job

i don't see any evidence for that in

fact trump might have put

more pressure on teachers unions

although that could have been

counterproductive you could make an

argument that if trump had gone harder

at teachers unions they would have just

hardened their

their stand against him so it's hard to

predict

but i don't think there's any reason to

think biden did a better job than

trump would have if he had been in

office um

i tweeted yesterday something that i

knew would get

get people angry or bothered

but there wouldn't be a reason which is

my favorite kind of tweet

where people would feel like they should

be offended

on behalf of somebody else they're not

sure who

and they're not sure exactly why but

they're definitely offended

if they can only figure out why

here is my tweet um

i i said that uh if i were the uh

if i were the attorney defending uh

derek chauvin the uh

officer who is charged with uh now i

guess second or third degree murder one

of those murders

i would say that i would deliver my

closing argument

laying on the ground if i were the

lawyer laying on the ground

and i would have my client put his knee

on my neck

much the way he did with george floyd

and for the entire

nine minutes i would time it so it was

the same amount of time as

as uh floyd was held down as the lawyer

i would just speak normally and i would

just have the

you know i'd be on the ground with the

officers

now not officer but ex-officer's knee on

my neck

and i would say all right we've

presented all the evidence and

as you can see you know there's plenty

of reasonable doubt

the main reason that you uh and the

world was so concerned

is that the visual of this is just

deeply disturbing

but as you can see the reason that this

is a legal

hold and it's trained and the officers

are trained this way

is that if you do it right it doesn't

put much pressure on the neck and as you

can see

i'm delivering my closing arguments

completely

without any air restricted and yet i

can't move

i can't get up can't get up

now uh do you think people complained

about that tweet

oh yeah you always get

this guy do you know who this guy is

he's the he's the guy it's usually a guy

it's usually a guy right i could be a

woman

i don't want to be sexist but it's

usually a guy who comes in

and says something like this

a man died

you're laughing and a man

died this is not a joke

you always need that guy right the guy

to remind us

that there was a tragedy is there

anything

that is more well understood than

whatever the

whatever that was it was a tragedy

is there anybody who doesn't know that

and here's the second part

it wasn't a joke if you laughed on it if

you laughed at it

well that's sort of on you because it

wasn't written as a joke

it was written as a persuasion

now of course i don't assume

that the lawyer would do anything like

that in order to do that you need a

certain kind of personality

let's say johnny cochran if johnny

cochran

cochran were alive

and he heard that idea

what do you think if johnny cochran

heard that idea and he were the defense

attorney

just lay on the ground put the knee on

you and do your closing argument

just like that he would at least

consider it now he might say no that's

too far or whatever because you know

clearly he was the highest level of

defense attorney so he might say that's

a bad idea for

good reasons but i think he'd at least

consider it

i think he'd consider it i i feel as if

he would give it a good

thought and here's the thing there is

nothing disrespectful about that

nothing it's not even a little bit

disrespectful

it's persuasive i mean if it worked

right

now here i'm making a big assumption

that i think is fair

which is that if somebody has their is

holding you down with that

knee hold on your neck they probably

have a lot of

leeway in terms of how painful

or damaging that is and i don't think

you can tell just by looking at it

on the video i don't think you could

tell so it would be a it would be

i don't know how they could possibly

convict let me ask you this

if you saw that closing argument

and you watched it for nine minutes and

you watched the lawyer talk normally

could you convict because that that

removes all the reasonable doubt

i mean it's just gone at that point

i would have done it all right there's a

study in israel israel is in the news a

lot

that they think aspirin may protect

against kovid

they thought you know there's some

evidence it does

andre's back house commented on that to

point out is a

low quality study and i wouldn't start

taking aspirin

because number one you know i usually

tell you

don't get your medical advice from me

but i'm actually going to give you

medical advice

right now don't start taking aspirin

unless you talk to your doctor

i feel that's safe right it feels like

that's safe medical advice

i used to take a baby aspirin every day

because for

i don't know decades i believe that the

science said

that it would protect you against

strokes or heart attacks or something

and so i'd take my little baby aspirin

every single day

the new science or at least the latest

thinking is there's no indication

whatsoever that

the aspirin is going to protect you from

any of that stuff

and it might have some negative effects

because aspirin is not exactly harmless

so i wouldn't trust anything about an

aspirin

study just in general but not that one

um here's an interesting thing to watch

i've been asking the question

who is the the conservative voice

now because trump himself is sort of uh

at the moment a little bit off the stage

coincidentally rush limbaugh passed

you would think of him as maybe the

dominant voice

in conservative politics so now the the

two

most dominant voices are out of the game

and i was watching as uh um tucker

carlson's show came on

immediately after the biden speech

and there's there's an interesting

phenomenon

you have to experience and maybe you did

you probably did

which is you watch the event yourself so

you're watching the biden speech or any

any other event

and then you're forming an opinion and

you're thinking oh i think this about it

or that about it

and then you see somebody like tucker

carlson

give you a very strong opinion and

a take if you will how quickly does your

sort of generic

forming opinion start to match

identically to tucker carlson's opinion

because it's the first thing you heard

while you were still trying to form your

opinion

and he is so certain when he speaks it's

one of the things he does well

he speaks with a kind of certainty that

is very persuasive

i felt you know i've told you before

that we don't make up our own opinions

on politics

you think you do but you don't

now i'm not saying that's a hundred

percent true

but it's close enough to 100 true that

you can treat it that way

meaning that whether you're on the left

or the right if you were to look at your

political opinion on

any topic you will be amazed and

surprised

that it matches whoever you watch on tv

the most

most of the time it just matches who you

watch on tv

and it's because your opinion was

assigned to you the people who are good

at expressing things

they express an opinion and then you

just adopt it it's like oh that's a good

way to think about it

that's my opinion now but watching

tucker carlson

assign opinions to fox news viewers in

real time

was sort of mind-blowing and i watched

that happen last night

because i wanted to see i was sort of

monitoring my own opinion to see

when it got formed to yeah because i was

i was feeling oh that's a sort of a

boring good biden speech

yeah he didn't hurt anybody didn't hurt

himself

got the job done and then as soon as i

turn on tucker it's a it's a

it's a dumpster fire and what he said

about fourth of july is crazy

i agree with him of course on the fourth

of july stuff um

but the other thing is that as

somebody's

saying in the comments part of what

makes tucker so powerful

is not just that other voices got

decreased

which is a big deal but that

he's really good like really really good

at his job

and he seems to be getting better and at

at his current age you know i'm not sure

you'd expect his

quality of production to just keep

getting better but it is right in front

of your eyes

i i think he's unquestionably

at his highest level of

quality as well as importance

you know his impact on the country so

i feel as if he he just became the guy

i feel as if you know if you've been

looking for who's the

the voice of the conservatives it feels

like it's him

it feels like it now not to say there

aren't other voices but

he does seem to have emerged as the the

prime voice

over in portland i guess there have been

nightly protests and

stuff for almost a year now um

and there i read that some portland

business owners are boarding up their

businesses because they're expecting

more trouble from

everything from the george floyd stuff

to who knows what

i thought to myself there are still

businesses in portland

why would you stay in portland if if

there were protests for a year

i know it seems like that would be long

enough to make other plans

but it's hard to move a business i know

but i can't believe there are any

businesses left

here's another compliment to the biden

administration you didn't see this

coming

pete bootage as the transportation

secretary is a really good choice

he's a really good choice i don't know

if you you remember but buddha judge's

background

is uh as a business consultant

i mean that was his first role and you

don't get the i

was at bain i think you worked for but

you don't get that kind of a job

unless you're just crackling smart and

you just came out of harvard usually

as he did but the the thing that makes

this perfect is that it's a purely

um it's an analytical job

oh mckinsey somebody's saying it was

mckinsey that's right so he was a

mckinsey

consultant but he has exactly the right

skill set

exactly the right skill set for uh

transportation and infrastructure

because those are things that people

sort of are more likely to agree on

right

we're a little bit closer on the need

for an infrastructure packs

package than we are for probably almost

anything else

he's perfect so you know i'm going to

give the biden administration a

an a-plus on that appointment we'll see

if he delivers

right he still has to deliver but that's

a perfect fit

of of training and competence

with job um you're the astrazenecas

vaccination some people thought it might

cause blood clots but now they've looked

at the data and they say

nope no blood clots so that story about

the vaccinations being a problem

is fake news as far as we know

there's still a lot of concern that

people will not get the vaccinations

because they're afraid of it or

mostly they're afraid of it and

i'm going to predict that in the end

that won't be a problem

my uh predictions last observation

is that um because supply is limited

that people's willingness to get the

shot is going to match the supply all

the way to the end

meaning that um you'll get enough people

vaccinated

to get to wherever we need to get people

like

me are quickly saying

they're skeptical until the last minute

you should stay skeptical until you have

a chance to get the shot

and then take all the information that

you have up to that point

and make your decision but you don't

need to make a decision until the shot's

available

something tells me that a lot of the

people who are sort of

talking about not getting the shot when

they really really think it through

and when they watch how many people have

gotten the shot and it doesn't you they

haven't heard that many stories of bad

outcomes

i feel as if um a lot of people are

going to get the shot

i think we'll get as many as we need i

think we'll be fine there

um here's my math question for you

and i asked this this morning i got a

number of answers

and i'm still not sure of my opinion on

it so help me form an opinion on it it

goes like this

if we had a normal virus that

affected everybody about the same way

every age group

then we're told that getting to 60 70

percent

herd immunity with vaccinations or

prior infections that getting there

would be enough

to stop the stop the spread

but what if you've got a weird virus

that has a special characteristic

that attacks let's say twenty percent of

the population

aggressively and eighty percent of the

population

hardly bothers them at all what happens

if you can vaccinate almost all of

that 20 percent well it won't stop

the infection from spreading through the

other 80 percent

of course and that other 80 percent if

they came in contact with the few people

who didn't have it yet

in that in the high risk group

then those people could get it and die

so

but here's the question i'm just trying

to think

the the logical math of it through

i do understand there's something uh

andres backhouse

said this morning on twitter that the

rate of infection

where it's been studied seems to be

fairly similar

with every age group i didn't know that

until this morning

so you can get infected at every age

group

which suggests that my idea doesn't make

sense

that if everybody's getting infected

it's at least in that one sense

it's like every other virus it's just

the outcomes are different

not the infection rate so

but i haven't given up yet

i feel as if just to help me think this

through because i really too many

variables here to

quite grasp it but my

my uh gut level uh

statistical intuition which is very

unreliable

tells me that if you vaccinate

let's say 80 percent of the high-risk

people

they tend to hang out with themselves

don't they

senior citizens are far more likely to

have you know extended

uh contact with other senior citizens

they do

have family contacts etc but and then

kids mostly hang around

with kids and under that scenario

couldn't you

not have heard immunity in the classic

sense where the virus just stops

but in a functional sense

where once you've got the high-risk

people done and the low-risk people are

still getting infected but

you don't care because they're not

getting any bad outcomes

don't you sort of reach something that's

like a virtual

herd effect

except plenty of people are still

getting infected it's just they're not

dying so when we talk about herd

immunity

from a regular virus we're talking about

the virus just stopping

it just can't spread it just stops but

maybe when we talk

about herd immunity for this one what we

should really be talking about is

bringing the

rate of risk down to whatever is a

baseline normal risk of life

and i feel like we're going to hit that

really soon

that's that's my uh statistical slash

math intuition that we're going to hit

it really soon

like way before may i'm thinking

i'm thinking april

uh hospitalizations will be almost

nothing

um but their spread will still be

widespread because the kids will

still be giving it to kids et cetera it

just won't we won't know about it

so i am not convinced that i'm right

there

and i'll let me make another point about

your skill stacks

when i when i advise you to add uh

additional talents to what you already

have to make your

stack of talents your talent stack as i

like to say is special

statistics is one of those things you

should have on there now i've taken a

course in statistics in in college but

it was a million years ago

i don't remember a lot of the math but

you

you can develop let's say a statistical

intuition about things

you can get to the point where you could

look at say this aspirin study

and say oh the number of people studied

was small the way they studied it is not

as as good statistically so you would

just have an intuition that you

shouldn't trust it necessarily

and i think that's a really good thing

to develop and you don't need to do all

the math to do it

just spend enough time looking at the

illusions of statistics the things that

you thought would be true

but turned out if you do the math are

not true every time you're fooled by

statistics make a little

note say oh yeah that's one of those

situations where it looks like it could

be the case

but if you do the math it's opposite so

develop try to develop some kind of like

intuition about where things are

credible and where they're not

independent of having the math

here's my most controversial idea of the

day

we know that china is sending fentanyl

to the cartels and the cartels are

packaging it up

in in other in drugs that look like

other kinds of drugs such as

fake xanax shipping it to the united

states and 50 to 70

000 americans per year are dying

from this we believe that china

is pursuing this you know total war idea

where it is completely intentional and

they could obviously stop it

because we've actually told them the

name of the person in china who's

sending the fentanyl

we know the name it's this guy

china of course can find that guy

right so there's no question about those

two facts

we've told them who it is who's the

you know the fentanyl kingpin in china

china knows where he is

they could stop him does anybody doubt

that they can stop that guy

no of course not so we have to assume

it's intentional

and that they are killing 50 to 70 000

americans per year

intentionally as a plan

now that's war isn't it

but given the nature of

all the obstacles and variables in the

world we can't just sort of

attack china militarily we just do this

weird thing where we demand that they

stop and then they just don't

because they don't have to apparently

there's no penalty

so to me it seems that mexico and the

cartels

are a combined allied

military force in a war

with the united states now we can't

attack

china because they have nukes and stuff

but we can certainly attack their ally

who holds territory and their allies

hold the

the border tele territory if you didn't

know this the cartels actually

are the government on the border

literally they're the government

the actual government wouldn't even be

they would be too afraid to even go

there

because they would kill the actual

government they're just not allowed

so for all practical purposes

mexico is not even on our border we

don't have a mexican border

but i'd like one let's see if we can get

one

so the way to get a mexican border for

the first time

is to get rid of this small let's say

unlabeled country owned by the cartels

different cartels but they have

different parts of it right and i think

that

we should at least consider

annexing that territory that mexico

doesn't control

now you would say to yourself whoa whoa

you've gone way too far the government

of mexico

is never going to allow you to annex

part of that territory to which i say

wouldn't that be great

wouldn't it be great if mexico surged

their

uh government military into that area to

protect it

from the united states annexing it

that'd be fine then we don't have to

annex it

because if the mexican military tried to

defend it

they would move their military into that

zone and that's all we wanted in the

first place

we want mexico to be on our border

so if mexico wants to be on our border

we'll help but of course the the real

mexican government is afraid of the

cartel

as they should be so they they can't

really do that

so what would they do if we just

annexed it just took it and said we're

not

taking it from mexico mexico doesn't own

it

and here's the best part if mexico wants

it back

they can have it just ask

all you have to do is control it just

move your military in

control the border we'll give it right

back to you

you can have it back but if you don't

want to do that

it's not mexico and it's not the united

states

it's china and i don't want a border

with china

right now we have one they happen to be

the cartel

working with china but for all practical

purposes

we just got ourselves a border with

china

and they are invading and attacking over

the border

so i would treat it like a chinese

military exercise

and when mexico complains you say oh i

hear you what you're saying

but it's not really about us this isn't

about the united states and mexico

we don't have any complaints with mexico

at all not the mexican government we

have a complaint with china

who is working with this cartel these

cartels who own this territory

this has nothing to do with you but if

you would like it to be about you

we would like that too you could join us

but until then it's it's war with china

and we'll just treat it that way

in the comments somebody says this idea

is so crazy it could work

let me tell you about uh so crazy it

could work

that's exactly right that's exactly

right

the the idea is not so much that you

would actually annex it

but you would change the frame you would

reframe the situation from an

immigration problem

a drug problem a crime problem because

that's not getting us anywhere

is it the way we cur we currently

frame and think about the border is

giving us nothing but worse problems

if you reframe how you think about it

that opens up options

you don't necessarily know where that

ends up it could end up with mexico just

defending their own border better

that'd be fine but the reframe just gets

you out of the

broken and bankrupt way of thinking

the bankrupt way of thinking is that we

have a crime immigration problem

at the border that's just not what's

going on what's going on

is that china is attacking the united

states right now

successfully and we're not defending

against an attack by china

mexico you're just not part of the

question

i wish you were honestly i wish you were

part of the question

but you're not the cartels are

all right um here's uh the most uh

this will just make your head spin for a

while i believe there's another

sexual category

and i'm just going to put this out there

and then you won't

you won't accept this at first but wait

till you look into it

okay some of you will be able to go home

immediately and ask somebody

for confirmation most of you won't

but watch watch what happens when you do

if you said to a let's say

a teenage girl in the united states in

2021

so it's just a your average teenage girl

and you say that teenage girl what is

your uh your orientation

they'll tell you they'll say i'm either

straight or i'm gay

or or i'm bi

and they'll tell you just right now so

at least in today's world

uh i don't see at least nothing like it

used to be

in terms of anybody saying that they're

gay or

they're lesbian or anything else so the

first thing

that would be eye-opening is that a

teenager today

is far more likely to just

you know be completely open about what

their sexuality

is here's the shocking part

ask a ask a girl who identifies as

heterosexual

not bisexual they have to identify as

heterosexual

and then ask this question would you

ever marry a woman

there was a time if you ask somebody who

identified as heterosexual would you

ever marry somebody of the same gender

they would have said well no what do you

think heterosexual means

that the whole point of heterosexual is

no i'm

i'm interested in the other gender

not today if you if you ask a teenage

girl today

would are you heterosexual she says yes

totally heterosexual

i'm not bi at all but would you marry a

woman

if you fell in love they will say yes

and won't even blink at it it's

it's kind of interesting it's it's

neither good nor bad i'm not putting any

kind of judgment on it

it's just a an evolution

that's sort of fascinating to watch

now i don't think that men would answer

the same i don't think a teenage boy

who identified as heterosexual if you

ask would you ever

marry another man probably would say no

you know in 2021 still probably not

everyone

but more more often

uh somebody's asking the question what

would happen if you asked a

let's say a teenage white girl

if she would marry a black person i've

i've heard teenagers discussing that

very question and 100

of them said yes and there were more

people who say they prefer

it in fact

several said they prefer it but i've

never heard anybody

in uh in the modern era say that they

wouldn't

i haven't heard it so i don't think

there's anybody

at least maybe this is a california

thing so it could be really different

where you live california tends to be

five to ten years ahead of some of these

things

um somebody says would you stay with a

spouse who changes

uh their gender i

think it depends it depends right

there's no there's no one answer to that

that would depend on the two people

uh when are you in the company of

teenagers well i don't hang with

teenagers

but uh let's say if you have a a family

situation

you're exposed to them whether you like

it or not

so the the answer is through family

connections

um but i'm not talking about

anybody in my family i'm talking about a

general statement

if you ask a personal question to a

group you'll get a peer answer yeah

yeah i think so

um yeah i'm just looking at your

comments

okay well i didn't know if that would be

surprising to many of you or not

it's a sign of the times probably a good

one

good sign of the times because the the

teens

the teens are definitely woke there's no

doubt about that

and that's not all bad

all right that's all for now and i'll

talk to you

later

all right um

your teens are not woke

all right that's all for now i will uh

talk to you tomorrow too